Jeremy Grantham: The Next Crash Will Be Similar To 1929 / 2000
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In this video we explain Jeremy Grantham's opinion on the "fully fledged epic bubble" that is the stock market and why these conditions are similar to 1929 / 2000.
📚 Chapters 📚
00:00 - Grantham's thoughts on the market
01:20 - Signs of a market bubble: OTC trading
02:30 - Signs Of A Market Bubble: Euphoria based investing
02:53 - Free money pumping up the stock market
04:18 - Fiscal & Monetary Policy Adding To The Bubble (a bad recipe).
06:09 - The Stock Market does not reflect reality
08:43 - The FED no longer has the power to prevent the crash
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Jeremy Grantham, he’s a value investor, he’s a student of market bubbles & he’s the chief investment strategist of GMO, the investing firm with over $118 billion of assets under management.
He normally doesn’t do that many interviews, however recently he went on Bloomberg finance with some pretty stern things to say…
The bull market that started in March 2009, the longest bull market in history has matured into a speculative fever of rare proportions.
He said “It is a fully fledged epic bubble”. “Put it this way. When you have reached this level of obvious super enthusiasm, the bubble has always without exception broken in the next few months, not a few years. You can’t maintain this level of near ecstasy it can’t be done, because you’ve put in your last dollar. You are all in. What are you supposed to do beyond that point? You can’t borrow any more money. You can’t take any more risk”. “How do you keep that level of enthusiasm going indefinitely?”.
The answer is you can’t. Just like when you drink alcohol or coffee the high has to turn to a low, and the exact same thing will happen with the market.
You know you’ve got many different signs that point to a bubble. One of those signs that Grantham talks about is the amount of trading going on.
He said “if you want a crazy example (of a sign), & you need crazy by the way that’s the best timing for a bubble top is crazy behavior. You look at the over-the-counter trading. I was a big over the counter trader in a speculative bubble of 1969. So last February it traded about 80 million shares for the month and it worked its way steadily through the year until November, (then) it got to around 380, so it had gone up four times. And then in December it went to 1.15 trillion shares for the month. Having tripled, it then tripled again in a single month! These are spectacular performances!”
So what we’re seeing is more and more traders entering the market looking to make a quick buck. As Grantham said, over 10 times more trades were placed at the end of 2020 compared to the start.
This is a signal of greed. Even more than greed it’s a signal of euphoria slash delusion. Everyone’s making money in the stock market, let’s all join in, let’s all do the same thing, I don’t want to miss out, and this pushes prices higher and higher. But always remember what follows greed, and the “new paradigm”, is denial, then fear, then capitulation.
And one of the things that is causing this euphoria in the market is this free money that everyone seems to be getting. Here’s what Grantham said “the sad truth of a lot of the quote stimulus, is that it didn’t increase capital spending. It didn’t’ increase much in the way of real production, but it flowed a lot of it eventually into the market one way or the other. And I have no doubt some of this new round of stimulus will and if it’s as big as they talk about, this would be a very good making of a top for the market, just of the kind that the history books would enjoy. We will have a few weeks of extra money and a few weeks of putting your last desperate chips into the game and then an even more spectacular bust”.
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
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Munger Cautions About Upcoming Stock Market Returns (2021-2031)
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Since the last market crash in 2008, the stock market has been booming. The next decade we may not see the same returns, Charlie Munger certainly doesn't think so. Let's dig deeper into his stock market predictions for the next decade (2021-2031).
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One of the things that we all know about Charlie Munger is he’s not afraid to express his opinion. If he has something on his mind, something that he wants to tell you, he won’t mince words, he’ll say it upfront… So he got asked recently what his thoughts were on the stock market returns over the next decade. Here’s what he said…
Insert Video
Ok, I want to try and explain that for those who don’t fully understand what he’s talking about. The first thing that he mentions is the fact that everyone’s looking to invest in the stock market…
What’s happened over the past decade in stocks we’ve seen unprecedented growth. Since the end of the last market crash 11 years ago, the stock market is up over 400%. Aka over 5 times in price…
Now what this does is it makes everyone flock into the market. What you put your money in a decade ago and now you have 5 times the amount? I want to do the same. And then what happens is you get the cook, the cleaner, the sports coach, they all want to put their money in the stock market and prices get higher and higher.
It’s kind of similar as to what was going on in the 1920’s in the stock market. So the 1920’s was known as the roaring 20’s. Back then the Ford Model T’s were being sold, the economy was firing and everyone wanted to invest…
And they made a lot of money with this, that was until 1929 came along. The market was clearly overpriced, people realized they didn’t understand their investments and it crashed. It only recovered 30 years later in 1959…
And that’s the thing, a lot of people who are currently in the stock market, don’t know a thing about market history, about previous lost decades in the market, or anything like that. All they see is their neighbors and friends getting rich through investing, so they want to join in on the party.
But as Munger thinks there’s only so long, that the party can go on. As much as we would like to believe, you can’t just keep making infinite returns in the market, eventually things have to simmer down. And if you look at history you will see that. You will see periods where the market went boom. And you’ll see periods just like from 1929 to 1959 where the market went no where…
The other thing I don’t know if you picked it up, was that Munger said “I think the returns will go down. Real Returns will be lower”.
So why did he specifically point out real returns? In-fact what I should probably ask you first is do you know what real returns are? Real return is what is earned on an investment after accounting for taxes and inflation. Real returns are lower than nominal returns, which do not subtract taxes and inflation.
So Munger has put a specific focus in that inflation and or taxes are probably going to be higher over the next decade.
Let’s start by looking at taxes…Unless you’ve been living under a rock, I’m sure you guys know we have a new president in 2021. His name is Joe Biden who has taken over from Donald Trump.
Now Trump was not a big fan of the old taxes. In-fact one of the major moves that he made when he came to power was to majorly cut taxes. Especially the corporate tax rate which he lowered from 35% to 15%... Biden is going to be doing the opposite, raising taxes, particularly on the wealthy, on corporations and and on estates aka higher taxes for investors and businesses…
So that’s something that we’re going to have to watch out for over the next decade, higher taxes. But arguably even more important than this is inflation…
For those who don’t know inflation is simply the rise in the prices of goods and services. For example did you grandma ever tell you of how she used to buy a loaf of bread for 10 cents and now it’s a rip off it’s $3. Why’s that the case, it’s inflation. The increase of prices…
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
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Chamath Palihapitiya: “Bitcoin Is Going To $200k”
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Chamath Palihapitiya thinks bitcoin is going to $100k, then $150k, then $200k. Here's why...
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Chamath Palihapitiya is one of those investors who’s becoming more increasingly well known, as time goes on. Why is this the case? Because he’s delivered extremely high investing returns, especially over the past decade.
He invested in Amazon early on, slack early on, he even invested in Tesla back when everyone thought this was a crazy investment. Turns out it wasn’t and now it’s by far the biggest car company in the world. Another investment that Palihapitiya is very big on, is Bitcoin...
He got asked recently where he thought the price of bitcoin was going this is what he said…“Where is it going it’s probably to a $100k than $150k, than 200 thousand. In what period? I don’t know, 5 years, 10 years, but it’s going there”.
What I want to do with this video, is show you the reasons why he thinks this. Why is he such a bull on bitcoin, how much does he hold, what are the reasons he has to back this up…
So the main thing that Chamath uses bitcoin for is a uncorrelated hedge against the economy and current system that we’re in.
Let me explain this a bit further. I think that we can all agree that we’re in relatively divisive times. Just look at the politics that is going on right now. Presidents have been banned from social media, some people agree with lockdowns, some don’t, some people hate trump others love him. No matter what your views are on any of this, you can’t deny that we’re not on shaky grounds at the moment.
Now one asset that actually benefits from times like these and will continue to do so if they get worse is bitcoin. That’s because bitcoin doesn’t rely
on any banks or government, everything’s done with blockchain which cuts out the need for them. So if things get even worse, with the markets, or the economy, or the political system we could see bitcoin doing even better.
Here’s what Chamath said… “The reason (we can see bitcoin hitting higher prices) is because every time you see all of this stuff happening, it just reminds you that wow, our leaders are not as trustworthy and reliable as they used to be & so just in case we really do need to have some kind of insurance we can keep under our pillow that gives us some access to an uncorrelated hedge…”
“and it’s going to eventually transition into something much more important but for right now you’re just getting all these data points that prove this thing. The fabric of society is frayed and until we figure out how to make it better, it’s time to have a little schmuck insurance on the side and everybody’s running in…”
Because the reality is, bitcoin is a much better version of currency than any fiat money that we’re currently using. Let’s take away those fees. Let’s get rid of centralized control by big banks and governments, let’s give the internet a currency where no one has the power to manipulate it.
I want to let Chamath explain things a bit further because he’s way more articulate than me…
Audio
So the reality is that Cryptocurrency is just a better version of money. But the question is will big corporations adopt it? Chamath thinks that it’s inevitable at some point in time that they will.
He said “eventually these retailers will want to do it because the ability to eliminate credit card fees and the ability of behalf of the consumer to prevent fraud. Those are hugely positive aspects of adopting some kind of cryptocurrency, so it’ll tip…”
I personally think the main thing before we see bigger corporations adopting bitcoin, will be stability in the price. As bitcoin get’s more and more popular and matures with age, we may see more stability in it’s price, and that’s when we’ll see the bigger companies using it. That’s my opinion.
In saying that we have already seen some big names who do use as a form of payment, Microsoft, AT&T, even KFC are now accepting bitcoin. So it’s transitioning maybe even faster than some people think…
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
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Warren Buffett: How To Invest In Stocks For Beginners (In 2023)
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Here are 8 Warren Buffett tips every new beginner investor should follow when entering the market in 2023...
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
Is The United States In Too Much Debt? (2021 Bubble)
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Is The United States in too much debt? $27.5 trillion dollars is the total sum at the time of making this video. Can we handle this debt or will the debt bubble explode/pop? Let's discuss...
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The United States is currently in $27.5 trillion dollars worth of debt. No that wasn’t a mistake, that wasn’t a slip of the tongue, $27.5 trillion!
13 years ago, that amount was only 10 trillion dollars! So what’s happened? Why have we almost tripled the amount of debt in such a short period of time and what are the potential ramifications of this?
So one of the obvious reasons at least for the recent spike in debt is we’ve had a pandemic. I don’t know if that’s breaking news to any of you guys, but yes, it’s been pretty big! We’ve had businesses shut down, we’ve had people stay at home and not work, there’s been less eating out, less shopping etc. So what did all of this mean it meant people needed money. No I can’t work my job can I have some stimulus checks. No my business is failing, I need some liquidity.
One of the ways that the government has got this money is borrowing. If we look at the start of 2020, we were in $23 trillion dollars worth of debt. End of the year that numbers almost at $28 trillion.
And you know there’s no denying that this was a worthy cause to get in more debt, people needed the money, but the question is can we afford it?
You know at the end of the day someone has to pay the debt back whether you like it or not. Whether that be us, or we leave it to our kids, or they kick the can down the road and they leave it to their kids that they have.
Someone’s got to pay it. And how this generally get’s paid is either through higher taxes or reduced government spending…
So that gives you a bit of an overview of the debt situation that we’re looking at. How much debt the government is in. But who are the people that they the owe money to? That’s a good question to ask…
So I’ve got a graph that explains it pretty simply. The biggest group is U.S investors. They own 32.5% of the debt. So that’s people who have bought long and short-term treasury bills or treasury inflation protected securities.
Whether it’s in their 401k or they’ve directly bought it themselves, it doesn’t matter they are the largest holders of government debt.
The next biggest group is foreign investors who own 29% of that debt. This is led by the Chinese and Japanese investors. They’re by far the largest holders of foreign debt. But then you got countries like Brazil, Ireland, the U.K, Belgium, India, and the interesting one is the Cayman islands. Those in the know will understand why this is. Cough tax!
The next largest holder of U.S debt is actually the U.S government themselves. Bit of a weird one they own 27% of their own debt. You might ask how, it’s actually mostly done through social security and federal pension funds.
Lastly 11.2% of that debt is owned by the federal reserve, aka the fed, making up the 4th and smallest holder of the debt that we are in.
So that was interesting to know who we owe the debt to but, big but coming. Can we afford this. $27.5 trillion dollars. Tripled in 13 year from just $10 trillion. Is this too much are we in over our heads?
Well there’s a couple of ways that we can measure this.
One of the main ways is to compare debt to our gross domestic product. GDP. Aka how is debt contrasted with how much we are producing every single year. So let’s start by looking at GDP on it’s own...
GDP has done extremely well over the past 12 or so years. It’s gone from from just over $14 trillion to $21.7 trillion dollars. Obviously we’ve had a bit of a dip this year and it went down slightly to $21.1 trillion!
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP
However, GDP has not grown nearly as much relative to how much debt is growing by. Just remember I’ve said this before debt has almost tripled in the same amount of time.
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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Peter Lynch: Here's How To Deal With A Falling Stock
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What to do when a stocks price is falling? How do we handle this? Peter Lynch explains this and more in the video...
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
Gerald Celente: Economic Hell On Earth Is On Its Way
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In this video Gerald Celente explains the reasons why he thinks economic hell on earth is coming...
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Gerald Celente he’s a trend forecaster, he’s the publisher of the trends journal and he makes predictions about global financial markets and other important events.
Not long ago he came out and started talking about the American economy, what is happening and what is going to be to come. He thinks the economy if things keep going the way they’re going will look pretty bad. He said “if it stays lockdowned it’s going to be hell on earth. Look at the businesses going out of business! You put your whole life into a business, a bar, a retail shop, whatever it might be, it is gone! It’s gone!”
“Well, it's going to go up and down, but the trajectory is going to keep going down. We're in the early stages of the greatest depression”.
So the question we need to ask is why? Why is he saying things like this and what are the underlying facts that he’s got to back up these claims…
One of the things that Celente mentioned was the trade deficit from the United States. The U.S if you look back 10 years or so, they’ve always had a deficit. Normally it hovers around that $45 billion dollar mark. And then you go to 2020, the start of 2020 was actually looking very good. But then we all know what happened, the pandemic hit, and the deficit shot in the wrong direction, downwards!
Obviously when you’re trading with other countries, generally you want to make a profit. Selling and making more money compared to how much you spend.
And for a long-time the U.S just hasn’t been able to do this, they’re such a big country, but the pandemic has made the deficit even worse.
And this is something that Celente alludes to when mentioning the so called economic hell on earth, we’re constantly at a deficit and it’s been made even larger recently.
But of course, apparently we have the solution for this, says the fed, says the government. Let’s just inject money into the economy. Don’t worry we’ll give you stimulus checks, we’ll send them right to your front door.
If you’re a business with very poor credit rating, don’t worry start purchasing junk bonds, there’s cash for you as well!
But Celente and a lot of other economists are not fans of this policy at all.
He said “Why would anybody, I’m only speaking for myself I don’t give financial advice, why want this digital trash backed by nothing and printed on nothing when they just keep printing more and more of it?”
And that’s the thing, people don’t really want to hold it these days. So they either put it in the stock market, which is one reason why stocks are so highly priced, or they put it in things like real estate, which is why we’ve got such high house prices.
The other risk that comes with this printing of money. Is inflation because if you get more money. What happens? Generally speaking you spend more. And this causes the prices of goods to go up. So in the long-term is it a practical, sustainable solution.
No, the solution is actually to grow the economy and grow output. That’s how you make more money, that’s how you pay off debt.
But lately we’ve seen not growth but negative growth when it comes to the economy.
The other thing that Celente goes into as reasons for poor economic times to come is the interest rates. He said “the other big difference this time, is I mentioned about how economy after economy and government after government, they’ve locked down. What’s keeping it up? All the cheap money they’re dumping into the system! The negative and 0 interest rate policy!”.
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. There is one affiliate link in the description above.
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A Breakdown of Chamath Palihapitiya’s 2021 Portfolio
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In this video take a deeper look into the key positions of Chamath Palihapitiya's portfolio in 2021...
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Chamath Palihapitiya, I don’t if you guys know much about him he’s one of the better modern day investors of our time. He founded the venture capital firm Social Capital and has achieved amazing results with his investing company so far.
Between 2011 and 2019, Social Capital has delivered a gross absolute return of 997 percent, this is more than three times the 325 percent returns from the S&P 500. If we look at that annually, that’s an average return of 32.9%. Not bad in the slightest…
What I’m going to cover in this video is Chamath’s portfolio over at social capital.
Now they own 74 different investments in their portfolio. However most of these investments, are private which we can’t invest in. So instead of going over 74 different investments I’m going to pick out the ones that are relevant to us. The major investments that he’s made, and the major ones that we too can invest in…
https://www.socialcapital.com/portfolio
Investment 1: Tesla
What I’ll first point out about each one of his positions, is we do not know the exact size that he has in each one. He doesn’t have to disclose this, his investing company social capital is not public. Unfortunately.
One of the stocks that Chamath has been a long-time investor in is, Tesla. Tesla, I’m sure you know what the company does, they’re the electric vehicle and clean energy company.
Now this is clean energy part is the game changer. Why? Because the world is quickly clicking on, how important sustainable energy is. At the end of the day there’s only so long that you can keep polluting the earth. before things go bad. So the world wants to change to a better form of energy and this is where Tesla comes in. They are the king when it comes to electrification and decarbonization.
This is why Chamath says the company can be worth a lot more money than it is today because of how big the market actually is…
He said “There are trillions of dollars of bonds, of CAPEX and of value sitting inside the energy generation infrastructure of the world that's going to go upside down. And when that goes pear-shaped, Tesla will double and triple again."
“Delivering clean energy and allowing the world to be sustainable is an incredibly important thing that will be rewarded by markets and individuals,”.
That’s what we’ve seen so far with Tesla and the way the world’s going we’ll only see more…
Investment 2: Slack
So Chamath, he’s a big fan of finding companies that have high potential and then betting big on them. One of those investments is slack. In-fact he wished that he put he put even more money into slack from day 1.
He said “one of our biggest investments is a company called Slack. And I still think to myself why did we not lead every single round and write the entirety of the fund into that company. It was obvious from day 1 that Stuart Butterfield is an iconic CEO and that slack is going to be one of the most important tech companies in the world…”.
So, those are big words. You know slack at the moment is valued at $24 billion dollars. It’s a publicly traded stock that we can all buy. And if Chamaths words do come to fruition slack would be worth trillions of dollars. Just like the other largest companies in the world.
That means it’s got the potential to not just 10x it’s original investment, but get 20, 30, 50 times a return. This is why he invested so heavily into it, he saw irregular risk, compared to return…
So I just want to quickly explain what slack is for those who don’t know.
Think of email. We’ve had email for how many years… Around 50 years. And it’s technology has not really been updated. This is where slack fits in. Unlike email, conversations in Slack are easy to follow.
They’re more than conversations — you can make calls, share files, and connect with other apps. So just think of it like a modernized version of email.
Similar to how Facebook is a modernized version of Bebo and msn messenger.
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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Cathie Wood: How To Achieve A 31% Return Per Year (4 Investing Rules)
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Cathie Wood is one of those investors who has become more prominent over the past decade. In this video we go over 4 investing rules she's followed to get an annual return of 31%...
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Cathie Wood founded her investing firm Ark invest in 2014, since inception she’s achieved a 31% annual average return. That’s around 2 and half times more than the return of the S & P 500.
Now this wasn’t just luck, funnily enough it’s not easy consistently beating the market year in and year out, yet alone beating it by more than 2 times the amount. No she achieved this through calculated investing principles and calculated investing moves. So what we’re going to do in this video is show you 4 rules Cathy Wood used to absolutely trounce the market…
Rule 1: Invest In Innovation
Ok, what is Cathie Wood most known for? What is the main way Wood has made so much money through her investments?
Those who follow her will know the answer to this, it’s by investing in innovation. And with that I mean innovative companies that are changing the way the world operates.
Right, let’s think about this for a second. What were the companies that made the highest returns over the past decade?
They were the likes of Netflix. Over a 7000% percentage return in 10 years. Netflix they were innovative, they were disruptive in the film and media sector. Absolutely changed the way people watched films and content.
What is it $14 a month, you can watch thousands of different movies and tv series, anytime you want. Don’t have to go to a movie theater, or wait hours for it to come on tv, no Netflix changed all that, through innovation.
Same with Apple, over a 1800% return in 10 years. They changed the way we used phones. They changed what phones can do. Who would have thought 10 years ago, the amount of things you can do with a simple smartphone in your hand. Apple dreamed it up through innovation and made their investors ridiculous returns…
Facebook another example. An extremely high return over the past decade.
No need to send letters anymore, or post pictures, or dial a phone. Just upload to Facebook. Or take 2 seconds to send a photo or message.
It’s these disruptive companies that have made the most money, the highest returns and these are the types of companies that Cathy Wood focuses on! The ones that will do this over the next 5, 10 years…
So, if we go to her website, on Ark Invest, under Fund Description and Objective. ARK defines ‘‘disruptive innovation’’ as the introduction of a technologically enabled new product or service that potentially changes the way the world works.
And when you buy companies that do this, it’s a game changer with investing. Because the growth opportunities with these companies is not just 50, or 100% growth, they have the capacity to quadruple, 10 times, 20 times the initial investment.
This is why Wood says people who want to succeed should think like a disrupter, "That's going to become more and more true, because so much is changing," in the world…
Rule 2: Stick To These 4 Sectors Over The Next 5 Years
There are 4 sectors that Cathy focuses on when it comes to her stock investments. These sectors are high growth. These sectors have the ability to compound at gigantic rates over the next couple of years and they all have what we talked about earlier. They’re all disruptive.
Ok so let’s read this on Ark invests website.
Companies within ARKK include those that rely on or benefit from the development of new products or services, technological improvements and advancements in scientific research relating to the areas of…
DNA technologies (‘‘Genomic Revolution”), industrial innovation in energy, automation and manufacturing (‘‘Industrial Innovation’’), the increased use of shared technology, infrastructure and services (‘‘Next Generation Internet’), and technologies that make financial services more efficient (‘‘Fintech Innovation’’)...
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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The Problem With The 2021 Bitcoin Bubble
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Let's address the most popular criticism on bitcoin; the price is too high, it's in a bubble and it's going to pop...
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Bitcoin has um, how can I put this? Been on an absolute tear as of recently. People thought the highs that it reached in 2017 was extreme. Yea, you might want to think again, 2021, has put those previous highs to shame.
And what this has done is it’s left a lot of investors, as you can imagine, saying it’s a bubble. Stay away from bitcoin. It’s going to pop. Rookie investors are overinflating it. And there is some truth to that, but there’s also a whole different side of the, hmm let’s say coin that we need to discuss.
You see a lot of people like to jump on either the bull side of the argument very quickly or the crash side, but I want to give a bit of nuance in this video. Something we don’t really see much in this day and age. I’m going to do my best to try show you the full picture of things.
First of all if you’re investing in bitcoin, or even thinking about it, you need to know the basics of what it is. Ok, let’s think about it. More and more transactions are happening online right. Am I right or am I wrong. It’s the truth.
The problem is that each transaction goes through a bank or credit card company, who take a cut. Not only do they do this, but we put our trust that these big billion dollar finance companies will do everything right. Will they keep our details safe, will they insure the transaction is accurate, will they secure our transaction from hackers or employees in their own company. These are risks.
But what if we can just cut out these middlemen, with a safe and secure way. I bring to you bitcoin. Where instead of these big bank companies storing the transactions in a ledger, all of the users record all of the transactions at the same time. Thus there’s no way to fool the system.
Cut out transaction costs. Cut out the middlemen. Cut out relying on these big banks and credit card companies. This is the genius behind bitcoin!
And people aren’t dumb, people have been paying attention to this technology and they’ve been flooding the market with their dollars to buy bitcoin.
What this has done is its escalated the price of bitcoin to dizzying heights. Leaving the inevitable worry, and I’m sure you’ve seen this as much as I have, that bitcoin is in a bubble and it will pop.
So let’s address the arguments behind this idea of the bitcoin bubble popping.
First, the thing you need to realise about bitcoin is there’s no insurance policys, there’s no circuit breakers, there’s no backstops, bitcoins price could just collapse. And it’s not like oh we’ve hit $5,000 that’s the minimum it can go down and you’ll get a refund, no it could go to zero and you couldn’t say anything.
The other thing is that we’re in weird economic times right now. No one can deny this. People who aren’t used to free money are getting quite nice amounts of it, in the form of stimulus checks. Now some people do need this to pay for food, water, electricity, etc, but for a lot of people this is extra money. And they think, hmm let’s put this into the market. Let’s buy some bitcoin. And it pushes prices higher.
And it’s easy to do this. Easy to buy bitcoin these days. At least compared to 3,5, 10 years ago. You can just use PayPal, or square or sign up to Robinhood for free and you can start buying bitcoin.
These factors mean you get rookie, beginners, who are getting free money, don’t know much about the market and they can now easily put it in to bitcoin. A lot of investors are saying it’s because of these reasons why the price is too high and overinflated…
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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Peter Lynch: How To Invest With Stocks At High Prices
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In this video Peter Lynch discusses how to invest when stock prices are at all-time highs. He gives practical pieces of advice that we can all apply to the stocks that we buy. Enjoy!
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Peter Lynch was one of the smartest investors that the world has ever seen. He got a return of 29.2% while been an investment manager of the Magellan Fund making it the best-performing mutual fund in the world. In this video I’m going to show you a clip of Peter Lynch talking about high stock market prices and what to do…
(Insert video)
One of the first things that you’ll notice in the interview is they talked about market P/E ratio’s. Whenever the market gets to a p/e ratio above 20, you need to be on your toes. Now that’s exactly the market we’re in currently. The S & P 500 is well above that 20 mark.
That means prices are high there’s no doubt about it. So the question is how do we invest?
As Lynch talked about in the interview, buy good quality businesses that are outperforming the competition. These are the ones that are going to survive a potential crash.
Secondly, check that their balance sheets are stable and preferably have a little bit of cash on them for tough times.
3rd, you’ve got to understand the company that you own. You wouldn’t buy a local business in your town if you didn’t understand it, and it should be the same with a publicly traded company.
And lastly remember that good times only last so long. Make sure that you are prepared financially and emotionally for if a crash happens. Because if you are you can do one of the most important things when it comes to investing, and that’s buying stocks cheaply…
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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A Breakdown Of Warren Buffett’s 2021 Portfolio
In this video we dive deep into Warren Buffett's portfolio in 2021. What stocks does the great investor Warren Buffett own in these current market conditions, let's find out!
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It’d be hard to argue that Warren Buffett is not the greatest investor of all-time. I think we can all agree that he is. And one of the great things about this, is that Warren Buffett is still alive today, with a portfolio bigger than ever. And because of financial regulations he has to disclose his portfolio to the public. Which means all of us investors get to look how the greatest investing mind is investing in this day and age.
With this video I want to break everything down piece by piece and show you the exact stocks that Buffett owns to navigate these weird market conditions that we are in…
Stock 1: Apple
Warren Buffett’s largest position by far with his investing company Berkshire Hathaway is Apple. Apple makes up 47.8% of the entire stock portfolio and he owns 944.3 million shares of the company. Altogether that’s worth $109 billion dollars. That’s a lot of money in one stock, even on Buffett’s terms.
Apple I know you guys already know generally what the company does. We’ll show you a bit deeper though. So the main thing that the company sells is obviously the iPhone. One of the most popular selling phones in all of history. That makes up 41% of their revenue. But they also sell the iMac and the iPad which makes up 14% and 10.5% of the revenue respectively.
Then of course you’ve got the slightly newer segment, which is the wearables and home accessories, that makes up 12.2%. And lastly, you’ve got the services side to their business. So that’s things like iTunes, the app store, apple music, apple pay and all of that. This makes up 22.5% of revenue. That gives you a bit of an idea of Apple, the company as a whole, let’s take a quick look at the stock now…
So this is one of the biggest companies in the world. Right now it’s valued over $2 trillion dollars. That is big. The price of an individual stock, if you’re looking to buy is $123 a share with earnings of $3.28. The stock has rallied very nicely over the past couple of years, it’s gone from $24 in 2016, to over 5 times the amount today…
I think it’s a smart investment from Buffett, it’s hard to argue not. Apple has such a strong business model, people know it all around the world and love their products. Let’s just say I don’t see apple of all companies failing over the next 3-5 years…
Stock 2: Bank Of America
Moving on to his second largest position, that’s Bank of America. One of the biggest banks in America. It makes up 10.6% of his entire stock portfolio, valued at over $24.3 billion dollars. The ticker symbol for that stock by the way is BAC.
So Bank of America what do they do, they help with loans, banking services, investing and asset management and other financial related roles. A very complicated business but Buffett knows them well.
Price wise they’re affordable to pretty much any investor, unless you’re broke. They sell for $29 a share right now and in return generate earnings of $2 a share. That gives them quite a low p/e ratio in this market of just 14.3. Also another nice thing about this stock is they pay a bit of a dividend. An annual yield of 2.5% which is pretty decent!
This is a interesting position for Buffett, as a lot of you know he’s been into banking stocks for a long-time now. The price is obviously cheap, however in these market conditions the banking model will be tested and time will tell if this is a smart investment to hold…
Stock 3: Coca-Cola
This has got to be one of my favorite all-time stocks and it was actually Buffett who introduced me to it. 8.6% of Berkshires portfolio is in the company Coca-cola. In my humble opinion it’s one of the best drinks of all-time. He owns exactly 400 million shares worth $19.7 billion dollars. That’s a lot of money...
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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Jim Rogers: How To Survive The Economic Meltdown
In this video we dig a little bit deeper into the American economy and how Jim Rogers see's it. It's all based around Rogers interview with Stansberry research linked below!
Here's the interview that I refer to in the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=txZpbZTzlyg
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Jim Rogers, I don’t know how many of you know who he is, he’s a legendary American investor and co-founder of the Quantum Fund and Soros Fund Management. If any of you have been listening to his views on the market recently you will know that he’s not exactly the most happy guy when it comes to the American economy and share market.
In-fact he said in a recent interview “I expect that we’re going to have a very serious Bear market and a very bad economy for a while”.
He got asked will it be the next great depression? He said “I’m not sure but I suspect it’s going to be the worst in my lifetime”.
So you know I’m an American investor and I hear those words come out of his mouth, and that doesn’t make me feel great to put it mildly. What I’m going to do in this video is I’m going to go over the reasons why Jim Rogers is predicting such bad economic conditions and then show you his thoughts on how to survive what might potentially be to come…
So one of the biggest reasons why rough economic conditions could be ahead, is because of the mounting debt problem that America is facing. As Rogers said “The united states is the largest debtor nation in the world by many factors and we keep adding staggering amounts of money to our debt. This has always ended badly.”
“2008 we had problems because of too much debt, since 2008 the debt has skyrocketed!”. Let me show you what Rogers is getting at…
So In 2008 we had around $10 trillion dollars of debt. Even for a big country like the United States of America this is a lot of money owed. But ok, I don’t know how good your history is, we’re not going back too far, but in 2008 we had the great recession. 2007 to 2009 to be more precise.
What happened then was businesses started failing, consumption started declining, banks were in big trouble and a lot of people needed a lot of money.
So the federal reserve says no worries, that’s totally fine, I’ve got this problem sorted. They heat up their figurative money printer, and they print money by the bucket load. They give it out to banks, businesses, to people to try heat up the economy again.
And it works, yah. June 2009 we’re no longer in a recession. But the thing that people don’t talk about, is the debt. Oh don’t worry about that, we don’t have to pay it back, yet… But at some point, debts must be paid.
And if we take a look at what happened after 2008, 2009, national debt shot up like a rocket. As you can see. $10 trillion, $11.9, $13.5, 2012 it get’s to $16 trillion, and now that debt pile has soared to $26.9 trillion. So you go from thinking $10 trillion in 2008 was bad. A dozen or so years later, that rises to almost triple the amount.
And this is what Jim Rogers is talking about, when he says the USA has a debt problem. There’s only so much that you can keep accumulating debt before you have to pay that off.
And if your answer is well we can just pay that off by printing money, than everything will be sorted. If only printing money had no consequences. Jim Roger got asked this question recently, this is what he said…
“(printing money to pay off debt) is probably what will wind up happening. As it has often happened in history. Whenever there is a problem in the world people look around for an easy way to solve the problem. Once open a time there was a guy named mr Marx. Mr Marx had a wonderful theory and many people accepted it and tried it for a long time. No body believes in Mr Marx anymore, we found that it didn’t’ work. But right now there’s another one, called more money today MMT. Give me some money, more money free money. Well everybody loves it. Many people are starting to try it. We’re going to find easy ways, politicians always find easy ways, will it work in the long-term. As I said, being a young person in America right now is not a good thing to be!...
The proper way to pay off debt is by earning more. Aka growing the economy in terms of GDP.
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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Jim Rickards: Prepare For The New Great Depression
In this video we go over Jim Rickards forecast of the New Great Depression and the underlying reasons why he thinks this...
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One of the people I’ve been listening to recently is Jim Rickards. Jim is a very smart author on finance and precious metals and he’s been paying close attention to what’s been going on lately. With regards to the lockdowns, the mass printing of money, the depressed economy, and a range of other things. Essentially he think there’s a new great depression on the horizon and we need to be prepared. Here’s a taste of what he’s been saying…
Audio 1
So Jim Rickards thinks we are in a similar situation to that of what happened way back in 1929. Obviously, I’m sure none of my viewers were alive back then, who knows maybe one or two were. But the 1920’s was the period called the Roaring 20’s. Back then, the economy was on fire, banks were giving out loans to everyone and the stock market was at all-time highs. That was until the end of the 1920’s where a big shift occurred. The economy started slowing down, people started buying less items like the new vacuum cleaners and electric washing machines.
What then subsequently occurred was a huge stock market crash, the Dow Jones went from 5,700 points to 520 points. As Rickards alluded to it only recovered 30 years later…
And we may be in a similar time today at least according to Jim…
This is what he said “this is both a supply shock and a demand shock, it’s extreme. I think people looking at the 2008 financial crisis, even 1998 with Russia, 1994 with Mexico, none of these crisis are good baselines! If you want to understand what’s going on now you to go back to 1929, you have to go back to the great depression!”
And what he’s talking about with the supply and demand shock let me explain. So back in the 1970’s there was that big market crash. Lasting 23 months you had the dramatic rise in oil prices, you had the miners strike, the Heath Government fell. But this was predominantly a supply shock. Why? Because Opec cut off oil exports to the United States, and supply was very low. This was the main thing that caused the crash.
2008 financial crisis it was the opposite we had a demand shock. People lost their jobs, people had their homes foreclosed on and there was no way that they were going to be spending money. That’s a demand shock. Even though the supply was there, there was no demand for any goods.
However, currently we have both. A supply and a demand shock. Supply as in US companies not been able to operate the way they normally would. They can’t get the same amount of exports as normal due to the pandemic. A lot of them have been in lockdown, and this has slowed production. So that’s supply.
But also, it doesn’t take a genius to know that we’ve got a demand shock. People have lost jobs. People aren’t as confident about the economy and they’re not spending money! So demand is not there.
It’s the double whammy and this is what makes the current economic conditions worse than normal.
As Jim Rickards said “this is the first economic shock that most economists can think of that was both a supply shock and a demand shock”.
“The happy talk from Wall Street and the White House is an illusion. The worst is yet to come”.
So we can safely say that Rickards, is not the biggest fan of how the U.S economy is looking and it’s potential future outlook.
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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Harry Dent: 40% Stock Market Crash Coming By April (2021)
Harry Dent has predicted that we will see a 40% stock market crash by April 2021. In this video I want to go deeper into the underlying reasons why he thinks this crash is coming...
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Harry Dent, he’s an investor who accurately predicted Japans 1989 economic collapse and the subsequent boom in Europe and the U.S to come. He also predicted the dot-com crash and wrote a best seller in 2009 called the great depression ahead.
And recently, he’s come out with some strong opinions on the U.S market and the collapse that he thinks is ahead.
He said “I expect a stock market peak right here I’d say by somewhere between early December and mid-January and we see a 2 year crash that really continues the crash that started in February”.
“I think that we’re about to see one more crash that takes the stock market to new lows, by April is my forecast. Between now and April another 40% crash”.
So that’s a big statement to make. You can’t just go out and say I expect a 40% market crash by April without some substantial evidence to back you up. So that’s what I want to do in this video. I want to go deeper into his arguments and reasons why he expects this crash.
One of the things Dent talks about is the small businesses and zombie companies falling.
This is what he said “this thing hit early this year February 2020, I give that a 9-12 month lag before you feel those small businesses, those zombie companies fall. They don’t go down over night, stocks can go down over night, like they did, but bankruptcies and chapter 7 & 11’s take time. I think by the first quarter (2021) you’re going to see more companies going under and that’s going to be the trigger”.
You see small businesses when tough times hit, they don’t just fall over, give up and shut down. No, it’s what they built for years, it’s their full-time income. They do everything that they can to keep going.
But if you’re economy is going poorly and people just aren’t willing to spend money, it’s the small businesses that often get hit the worse. And eventually, give it enough time of struggling they shut down. Dent thinks this will be one of the factors that cause the market crash that he’s predicting…
The other thing he mentioned was the zombie companies. Do you guys know much about these?
You see there’s this trend going on in silicone valley where the goal is to make a company, get as much hype around it as possible, as much people investing in it as possible, and grow it’s size as big as they can in order, just to sell it.
It’s not necessarily about having a great long-term sustainable business model, no it’s just about borrowing money, and then selling the company on and then making a fortune.
Often when you dig into the income statements and balance sheets of these companies you see that they’re barely getting by. They make just enough money to pay their costs and the interest on the debt, but not the actual debt itself.
These companies, they do fine in a bull market. They do fine when the economy is ticking along nicely. But when things start to slow down, that’s when they struggle.
And the holes, or the flaws in the company start to get pointed out. It’s as the great investor Warren Buffett says “only when the tide goes out, do you discover who’s been swimming naked”...
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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The Great Depression: A Quick History Lesson
A lot of investors think we are in a similar period today as to what it was back in the 1930's (the great depression). In this video we show you how the great depression occurred, what the market & economy did, and how we got out of it...
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The great depression, the longest, deepest, and most widespread depression of the 20th century. The economy crumbled, the stock market crashed, millions of jobs were lost, this was a nasty time. And what we’re going to do in this video, is go over exactly what happened in the great depression, and how we can relate this back to today. There are definitely a few things that need to be pointed out…
Now it all started with the roaring twenties. And we need to pay particular attention to this period because it’s very similar to what’s been going on over this recent decade.
The roaring twenties… This is what it all started with. The 1920’s was a period of great economic prosperity. People were recovering from world war 1, construction was beginning to take place all across the nation, innovation was growing, unemployment was getting lower and lower and more people were being able to afford things they usually wouldn’t…
Before world war 1 cars were a luxury good. In the 20s, mass-produced vehicles became commonplace in the US and Canada. This was largely thanks to Henry Ford and his model T. More than 15 million Model T's were sold from 1908–1927.
Not only this but other technologies were becoming more widespread. Radios were used to mass communicate and mass market, to large groups of people. This was not possible before. The cinema as the English would call it, started to boom. Aviation was becoming a thing. And the economy was beginning to thrive…
And because of this, people had jobs and excess money to spend. But they already bought the Ford model T. They bought the clothes and things they wanted. Where else could they put their money. Hmm, why not the stock market? My neighbor John just invested in the stock market, and he’s made a lot of money. I’m going do the same.
You see what you need to realize is that during this time, the stock market was on fire. Over those 9 years, the Dow Jones went from under 1000 points to 5,600 points… An increase of 5 times the amount…
It’s no wonder everyone thought they were 19th century investing geniuses and were not afraid to put all their savings in the stock market.
It’s kind of similar what’s been happening over the recent decade In the stock market…
Over this decade it’s gone up more than 3 times the amount, from 8,500 points, to 27,600 points. Just like back then everyone thinks that they are investing geniuses. But there’s only so long that that can go on…
And we all saw this in the very late stage of 1920 when things began to crumble… You had the cook, the janitor, your neighbor, every man and his dog investing in the stock market, as if the only thing it could do was keep going up.
But then when you looked at the economy, hang on, it’s slowed down. They aren’t selling as many model T’s as before, there was less construction going on, and ultimately less profit being made.
Than Thursday October the 24th 1929 come along which was about to be a very dark in the market. The bells rang in the morning and by the end of the day panicked investors had caused the market to go down by 11%. Imagine going on holiday for 1 day and then coming back and seeing 11% of your money down the drain.
Panic began to sink in. The janitor, the cook, your neighbor John, they realized they never fully understood what they were investing in and began to pull their money out of the market by the bucket load!
The week after, in a day which is now known as black Tuesday the markets fell by a further 12%, and the great depression had well and truly kicked off…
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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How To Make Millions In The Next Market Crash
Many investors are predicting a stock market crash in 2021 and the years following it. In this video I want to talk practical methods of making money in a stock market crash. We should not fear a crash, instead it should be something we look to make money in!
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It’s the story that you’ve all heard before. The stock market crashes, then a couple of years later someone comes out and shows how they made millions sometimes billions from the market crash.
Obviously one of the most well known ones is Michael Burry who shorted the stock market in 2008 and made a whole lot of money. That was made famous by the movie the big-short.
Also you’ve got George Soros who pocketed a billion dollars in a day by shorting the British Pound. You got Andy Krieger, he made millions as the kiwi crashed.
These guys, they had specific tactics that they used to make money in the crash. Well most investors were getting crushed, pulling out of the market and losing money, they made money.
Now what I want to do in this video is talk about how you can do the same. Now I can’t guarantee that you’re going to make millions, if I did you should probably click off this video, I mean that all depends on how much you start with, but I am going to show you tactics on how to make good money in a stock market crash…
So we’ve all heard of the stock horror shows. GoPro everyone thought this company was going to be worth 10’s if not hundreds of billions of dollars. Fast forward to today and how many people are buying go pro’s? Not many at all. And thus the stock got absolutely crushed, it’s fallen over 90%.
Nikola an even more recent example, again a stock that had a lot of hype, because of the EV potential, but it got crushed.
Now the reason I’ve showed you these examples is because not all investors lost money with these stocks. There was this astute group of people who were able to identify the hype and they went and shorted these stocks. Once the bubble popped and the stocks crashed these investors made good money.
Because when you short a stock, you profit when it goes down. If it goes up, you lose money.
So if you are able to identify trends when stocks are getting hyped and overpriced, then you can make a lot of money through shorting stocks.
I mean let’s be honest, sometimes it can be easy to tell when stocks are overhyped. Because you get your neighbor John who knows nothing about investing, and he tells you he’s buying the stock. The stocks all on YouTube, the stocks in the news, it’s on social media. These are often signs that they’re overpriced.
For example bitcoin, at the height of bitcoin, everyone was talking about it. I remember my flat mates buying it, my friends who didn’t know what the word invest meant, they bought it. And what do you know, next thing, the bubble popped.
So that’s one way you can make money in a market crash, it’s by shorting certain individual stocks. That’s the tactic Michael burry used to make money from a crash, he shorted sub-prime mortgage bonds. Or George Soros, he made a billion dollars in a day by shorting the British pound.
The other thing that you can short if you are extremely brave is the stock market as a whole. As of today, the market is at, or close to all-time highs and there’s a lot of people saying it’s overvalued. Even Michael Burry himself thinks the market looks overinflated.
He said index fund inflows are now distorting prices for stocks and bonds in much the same way that CDO purchases did for subprime mortgages more than a decade ago. The flows will reverse at some point, he pointed out, and “it will be ugly” when they do. “Like most bubbles, the longer it goes on, the worse the crash will be,”.
Now this crash that he’s speaking of, if it happens and you short it, well you’ll make good money... (end of script...)
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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How To Tell When The Stock Market Is Overvalued
In this video we go over 4 key methods to tell when the stock market is overvalued. The Market P/E, the Shiller P/E, The Buffett Indicator & Overall Market Returns.
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
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One of the most asked questions that investors are curious about, is how do you tell whether the stock market is overvalued? Are prices too high, should we wait for the market to go down, or is now actually a fine time to get in?
And this is an important question to ask, because let’s be honest no one likes putting there money in the stock market and then seeing prices fall. It’s not a fun experience, I’ve certainly gone through it before.
But there are a number of indicators that we can look at in order to determine if the market is overvalued. Or at the very least get a good feel for where market valuations stand.
In this video we’re going to explain the 4 key indicators that we can use to determine whether a market is overvalued, fair valued or underpriced… I’m going to use todays USA market as an example but you can use market at any time with these indicators…
Method 1: The Market P/E Ratio
Now I’m sure you’ve heard of this metric before, the p/e ratio. Or price to earnings ratio. I don’t know if you’re aware of this but you can actually get the p/e ratio of the entire market as a whole. And you can use this to get a feel for if things are overvalued. Let me explain...
So the market p/e ratio, what you first need, is a guage of the entire market.
Now in the USA, they have an index called the S & P 500.
The S & P 500 measures the performance of 500 very large and popular companies in the States. Essentially this index tracks the entire USA market, it’s known as a benchmark for the market as a whole.
So what we do is get the price of the index aka how much do stocks overall cost, and then you compare this to the earnings. Aka how much money are the stocks bringing in. In terms of profit of course.
So cost versus profit it’s the oldest benchmark figure in the book.
And the P/E is simple to find. All we do is a good old google search. And we go on the website multipl.com which shows us this graph.
Now as you can see, the current S & P 500 p/e ratio is 32.95. If you take that and look through history, you can see that it’s quite a bit higher than it’s normal figure. The average p/e ratio throughout history is 15.85. Right now it’s double that, which isn’t a good sign.
I mean the p/e ratio is similar to what it was back in 1999. Where the dot com crash was just about to happen. In 1999 the market p/e was 32.9. This potentially means the current market may be overvalued… But we have to look at the other indicators in order to confirm this hypothesis…
Method 2: Shiller P/E Ratio.
Now there’s investors who’ve come along and criticized the traditional p/e ratio for measuring the market. They say earnings in a particular year can fluctuate because of business cycles and thus it’s not accurate. That’s where Professor Robert Shiller came along and he developed something called the Shiller P/E ratio.
What he did was he averaged the earnings over the past 10 years and adjusted them for inflation so that market fluctuations would not be in the equation.
And thus a lot of investors believe it’s a more accurate way of measuring the market.
Anyway so currently the Shiller p/e ratio sits at 30.27. That’s a lot higher than what it normally is if you look back through history. The average Shiller p/e throughout history, the past 100 years or so is 16.75. So it’s about 14 points higher than the average at the current point in time of making this video.
However the average over the past 20 years is 25.6 which would make things seem a whole lot more reasonable... (ok that's all I can fit in)
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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Berkshire Is Buying Pharma Stocks & The Reasons Behind It Are Intriguing
Warren Buffett's company Berkshire Hathaway has been buying Pharmaceutical stocks recently including Pfizer. I want to go over the exact stocks that they bought and sold and the potential reasons why...
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
4 Assets That Will Make You Rich In 2023
I want to talk about 4 assets that can make you money in the future. Now there's no guarantee that they will make you rich (of course), but if you invest in these wisely they can make you a lot of income!
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
Warren Buffett: How You Could've Turned $114 Into $400,000
In this video Warren Buffett teaches you how you could've turned $114 Into $400,000 through the power of investing. In particular investing in America and American stocks...
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
A Deep Look Into Phil Town's Portfolio
In this video we analyse the portfolio of one the great modern day investors Phil Town. Let's look what he's investing in now and for the years to come...
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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A Breakdown of Ray Dalio's 'Holy Grail' Strategy
In this video we take a deep look into Ray Dalio's Holy Grail Strategy. This strategy helps maintain maximum returns at as minimal risk as possible.
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
Ron Paul: “It’s The Largest Financial Bubble In History”
Ron Paul, someone who’s been in the finance game for a long while thinks we’re in the largest financial bubble in monetary history. This video explains his thoughts as to why and what his portfolio looks like to prepare for this...
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Ron Paul, one of the great financial minds in the United States, he’s been speaking up quite a bit lately. I’m not sure if many of you have been paying attention to what he’s saying., But it is interesting and I want to catch you up to speed. He thinks we’re currently in the biggest financial bubble in the history of monetary policy…
So the question becomes why? Why does he think this. Ok, first thing he mentions is inflation.
Now generally the Fed aims for a 2% inflation rate each year. Recently the Fed have come along and changed this policy.
They now want to average a 2% inflation rate. That means that the Fed is willing to allow inflation to run hotter than normal in order to support the labor market and the broader economy.
Now this all sounds well and good but there are a lot of problems that come with inflation. Ron Paul doesn’t like it one bit.
Because ok, let’s look at the definition of inflation. Inflation is “a general increase in prices and fall in the purchasing value of money”. Basically meaning if you just hold on to cash it becomes worth less over time.
As Ron Paul says “the policy of our government is to steal 2% of the value of the dollar, on purpose! And now they’ve become even more desperate towards inflation”.
So do you think that any sound investor is going to want to have their money in the bank? No.
Look at the type of interest that you can get on your money. It’s terrible. The average USA bank savings rate is 0.09%.
So basically this means the money in your bank, is losing it worth for every second that you have it in there. The mix between inflation and low interest rates, kills savers.
So they think, no I’m not going to have my money in the bank, let’s look at the stock market. And they start buying stocks.
And what this does it causes prices of stocks to go up. Anyone who’s done economics 101 will know this. As we can see the stock market has recovered to almost full time highs, up 45% over the past 7 months. The economy however has been going terrible, but stocks have not seemed to notice!
And of course it’s not just the stock market. House prices are around all-time highs as well, because of this same notion. Low interest rates, which means you can borrow more, and there’s no desire to have your savings in the bank…
The next thing that Paul refers to as been a driver of asset prices, is this new notion of unlimited quantitative easing. So it was in March 2020, when the Fed announced that they will essentially allow unlimited quantitative easing to help the economy.
Except of course they said it in a much more politically correct way. They announced that they will continue their asset-purchasing program "in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning and effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions and the economy." Basically there’s no limit to the amount that they can print now.
And this is something that we’ve never seen before. Unlimited QE.
This has resulted in the Fed’s balance sheet blowing up. It’s now soared past $7 trillion dollars. Almost doubling in size! And we don’t know how much worse this will get in the future!
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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Ray Dalio’s Dollar Crash Prediction. Here’s How It Will Happen
Ray Dalio has come out and written a bunch of articles which detail the crash of the U.S. dollar (along with other ideas). In this video I want to simplify what Dalio has written, so that you can all wrap your head around what has happened and what may be to come!...
Articles Referred To: https://www.principles.com/the-changing-world-order/
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The United States has enjoyed over 70 years of being the leading reserve currency resulting in having a very strong dollar. This has helped them to be able to borrow a lot of money and grow their empire that we know it to be today.
However, the billionaire Ray Dalio, put lightly, he doesn’t see this lasting forever. Especially when we’re talking the U.S dollar. He’s come out and wrote a bunch of articles on his website called principles, which detail the decline of the U.S. dollar. In this video I want to try sum up the key lessons from these articles and show you why the decline of the U.S dollar is not if, but when…
First of all. What is money? That’s simple. Money is something that we use as a store hold of wealth.
Now throughout time, there is a cycle in the way money works. There is 6 key stages that you need to know.
At the start of the cycle, there is no debt / very low debt and “hard money”.
So back in the day, they used simple things like grain and beads as a sort of hard money. More recently It’s being gold, which you use to exchange for goods and services. So that’s stage 1 very simple, hard money is used as currency.
Then stage 2 comes, which is Claims on hard money.
Obviously it’s very tough carrying metal money around everywhere, so what they did is they developed paper money. Paper money is just a claim on some form of hard money. Aka United States before 1933, money was simply a claim on a certain amount of gold. So money back then was actually backed by something, unlike today…
Then stage 3 follows which is increased debt. And this is the stage where people discover the wonders of debt and credit. We can now borrow these “paper claims”, and only have to pay it back at a later date in the future…
However what happens, is you guessed. People get too greedy they borrow what they can’t afford and too much debt grows. Eventually there is more paper claims on hard money, then there is hard money in the system which leads to some problems…
And then Stage 4 comes which is the debt crisis defaults and devaluation.
People demand to get their hard money out of the bank. The bank realizes it doesn’t have enough and they either default or get bailed out by the government. Aka like what happened in the 1930’s the huge bank run, when people realized the banks didn’t have the assets to pay back their money…
And then stage 5 comes fiat money which is the stage we are currently in. The promise to deliver “hard money” becomes to difficult and too constrictive, so generally the government decides to abandon this system and use fiat money. Fiat money, this is just paper money that the government can now print as much as they possibly desire, because it’s not backed by anything. What a wonderful idea.
Of course it all seems well and good when they implement the idea, but of course huge ramifications are to come from it.
So this change to fiat money, the start of stage 5 happened in 1971. 1971 president Nixon told the world that the dollar would no longer be tied to gold. All banks, people, companies, don’t worry we can now print as much money as we possibly want.
And this was the start of the final stages of the long-term currency cycle…
You see what happens in stage 5, is governments, people, companies tend to get greedy and they look to expand economically, as much as they possibly can. So they pile up a lot of debt. Eventually they can’t afford to pay their debt payments back and they have to print money to service their debts and obligations.
Just think about what’s happened in 2020, they’ve printed trillions of dollars…
The problem when you print a lot of money, is you devalue it.
If there were 100 Mona Lisa’s in the world instead of one, the painting wouldn’t be worth so much.
If there were 1000 Niagara falls, it wouldn’t be as famous. You get the point I’m trying to make, the more you have of something, the less valuable it becomes.
And this is what happens when you print a lot of money, people flee out of the currency. And they look for an alternative store hold of wealth. Which is a big problem with the American dollar...
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