Why Michael Burry Thinks 2022 Is Similar To 1929 & 2000
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Why is Michael Burry comparing 1929 & 2000 to what is going on in the market today?
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Why Buffett & Munger Think This Asset Will Likely Crash To $0
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Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger expressed their opinion on bitcoin recently at Berkshires annual shareholders meeting. Let's just say they don't look on it favourably...
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Benjamin Graham: How To Beat The Market Every Year (6 Investing Ideas)
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Benjamin Graham has a very unique style to investing. This style helped him beat the market, and never have a losing year. Let's go over 6 investing ideas that Graham used to achieve this.
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
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Warren Buffett Trolls Charlie Munger On His Costco Obsession
#shorts
Investing banter at its finest.
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Warren Buffett Is Buying These 2 Stocks Like Crazy. Here’s why
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Warren Buffett has finally started to buy decent portion of stocks again after a long break. Let's go over his 2 recent big purchases as well as those of other major investors...
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
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A Look Inside Bill Gates Portfolio
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Let’s take a deep dive into what Bill Gates owns in terms of investments in 2022.
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Mohnish Pabrai’s Formula On How To Get Rich
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Mohnish Pabrai outlines his formula for getting rich and how you can too. You just need to put in the work & understand some simple investing principles.
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Mohnish Pabrai Explains Why 2022 Is Similar To 1929, 1960 & 2000
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Let's analyse why Mohnish Pabrai see's 2022 similar to the 1920’s, the 1960’s & the early 2000’s.
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A Look Inside Warren Buffett’s Portfolio
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Let's take a look into Warren Buffett's portfolio in 2022. This is a mix between stocks, privately owned businesses & quite a bit of cash!
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
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Stock Market for Beginners | Step by Step Guide (2023)
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The ultimate guide for beginners investing in the stock market in 2023
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⏰ Timestamps ⏰:
0:00 - Introduction
0:38 - Why Invest In Stocks?
1:28 - What Is A Stock?
1:56 - How Do We Get Started
2:49 - 4 Types Of Investing?
3:58 - Style 1 = Dividend Investing
4:34 - 4 Key Things To Look For In Dividend Stocks
8:25 - Dividend Stocks To Look Into
9:20 - Positives & Negatives To Dividend Investing
9:58 - Style 2 = Value Investing
11:42 - P/E Ratio
12:59 - Value Stock Examples
14:00 - Style 3 = Growth Investing
15:31 - Revenue, Return On Equity Profit Margins
18:25 - Growth Stock Examples
19:38 - Style 4 = Passive Investing
20.57 - Buffett Backs Passive Investing
21:42 - Dip Your Feet In
22:17 - How To Deal With High Stock Prices
23:27 - Summary
How To Calculate The Intrinsic Value of a stock: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0EBO-vs0GM
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
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The Dreadful World Of TikTok Investing Advice
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TikTok a good place to for a laugh, but maybe not for investing advice...
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The Worst Losses Seen On Wallstreetbets
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WallStreetBets, the place to go to make you rich, or is it? Too often it works out to be the other way round! Get 5 Free stocks on moomoo up to $3500 each: https://j.moomoo.com/00bcrV
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Jack Dorsey: HYPERINFLATION Is Going To CHANGE EVERYTHING. It's Happening
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Let's go over Jack Dorseys warning on hyperinflation and what other investors think on where inflation is heading...
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Jack Dorsey, Ex CEO of twitter, billionaire, co-founder of square, or as some know him as Mark Zuckerberg 2.0, he’s come out recently warning of hyperinflation. Jack said “It will happen in the US soon, and so the world”.
16% inflation that’s a lot! This comes after the infamous investor Michael Burry sent out his own warning on inflation, along with other famous names like Ray Dalio, Paul Tudor Jones & even the oracle of Omaha himself Warren Buffett, hasn’t refrained from talking about inflation.
And if we take a look at what’s happening with the price of things, it looks like a lot of them were correct, it’s not hyperinflation yet, but, it’s not a pretty picture… Gas one of the most important commodities, used in all countries throughout the world, that’s shot up 250% in price in a single year. I think we’ve all felt the effect of that one.
Lumber, aka wood, used for building houses, desks, chairs, shelves, you know most things that humans use, that’s doubled from around $300 to over $600 today
Even recently I went to buy a canon camera from the shop, normally camera prices go down, this one had gone up $200 in a week, because of increased material costs. If we look at technology such as phones, laptops, headphones, they’re all starting to cost more…
I saw this funny yet poignant thing on Instagram the other day, it said “my truck is somehow worth more than when I bought it in 2017, 2021 inflation is so bad that it’s turning depreciating assets into appreciating ones”…
And this is what the underlying numbers are pointing towards, inflation that we have not seen in a long while. Looking at the United States inflation rate, it dipped to almost 0% at the start of 2020, & now it’s almost at 5.4%, almost 3 times more than the number we’re used to!
As trading economics said the annual inflation rate in the US edged up to a 13-year high. The Main upward pressure came from the cost of shelter, food, namely food at home, new vehicles and energy. But if we go to Jack Dorsey, CEO of twitter, very smart man when it comes to business, he’s not warning of increased inflation like we’re seeing, he’s warning of hyperinflation! That’s a big difference.
Hyperinflation is a term to describe rapid, excessive, and out-of-control general price increases in an economy. If we look at other countries we can get a range of examples of what hyperinflation has looked like for them…
Zimbabwe probably the poster boy child for hyperinflation in the world, is a country we can look at. So the government started printing money to pay for the war in congo. On top of this they started confiscating farms from certain groups of farmers. As a result they were hit with one of the worst cases of hyperinflation. The inflation rate was 98% a day and prices doubled every 24 hours…
Venezuela a more recent example where prices rose 41% in 2013 and by 2018 inflation was 65,000%. This came as a result from the government meddling with money supply as well as instituting ‘price controls’ for food & medicine. As a response people started using eggs as a form of currency. Eggzellent idea… Germany another example where their central bank issued 92.8 quintillion paper marks. They did this to try get themselves out of trouble from bad economic times & what do you know hyperinflation quickly followed.
So what can we learn from these examples. Governments meddling with business activity & too much printing of money = bad for inflation. Now that is the worrying thing about the era that we are in today, because I’m not sure if you’ve noticed, governments are very hands on with businesses, and the central bank is very into printing money. 2 ingredients that can lead to disaster…
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181
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Warren Buffett: Advice For Young People Who Want To Get Rich
Advice from one of the worlds wealthiest men alive on how to get rich. If you're young watch this!
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Warren Buffett: 10 Books That Made Me Millions
Let's go through 10 books that helped make Warren Buffett not millions but billions of dollars...
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Warren Buffett, one of the richest investors in the world, when asked once about the key to success, pointed to a stack of books and said, “Read 500 pages like this every day. That’s how knowledge works. It builds up, like compound interest. All of you can do it, but I guarantee not many of you will do it.”.
A day in the life of Warren Buffett is essentially going to his office, sitting in his chair and reading the rest of the day. Not watching netflix, not making phone calls, not sending emails, just reading. This is the habit that made Buffett rich. But what were the key books, out of all the thousands of books that Buffett has read, what were the ones he said were the most important?...
Book 1: The Intelligent Investor
When Buffett was just 19 years old, he picked up a copy of the “Intelligent Investor, by Benjamin Graham. He later called this moment, one of the luckiest of his life because the book gave him the investing framework that he would use throughout his career.
According to Buffett, The Intelligent Investor is “By far the best book on investing ever written.”
He said “Chapters 8 and 20 have been the bedrock of my investing activities for more than 60 years. I suggest that all investors read those chapters and reread them every time the market has been especially strong or weak.”
So Chapters 8 is where Graham talks about market fluctuations, and how to stay calm plus profit from them and Chapter 20 is about margin of safety and buying stocks below their true value. Many people call this book ‘the bible on investing’…
Book 2: Business Adventures - Twelve Classic Tales from the World of Wall Street
Not long after Tech giant Bill Gates first met Mr. Buffett back in 1991, Gates asked the Oracle of Omaha to recommend his favorite book about business. As Gates recounted, Buffett "didn't miss a beat" before naming this book, a collection of New Yorker articles from the 1960s, and promised to send Gates his personal copy.
Bill Gates, devoured the book & now says it's the best business book he's ever read & lists John Brooks the author as his favorite business writer.
The book holds Twelve Classic Tales from the World of Wall Street, with most of the chapters focusing on business strategies and management. The book teaches us how easy it is to lose money in the market, and how to avoid it…
Book 3: Poor Charlie's Almanack: The Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger
Warren Buffett first met Charlie Munger over a dinner in 1959. Immediately they hit it off, and this formed into a lifelong partnership, where they were both to end up becoming billionaires.
And Charlie Munger had a big effect on the way Warren Buffett evolved his investing style. Instead of looking for very cheap businesses where you could make some quick short-term profit (aka cigar butts), Munger taught Buffett to pay a higher price for a higher quality business. If you gave it time, this approach would end up making a lot more money…
In poor Charlie’s Almanack we learn Mungers mental models that he’s used to gain success throughout his life. This includes thinking around investing, around decision making & around life choices and the way we see the world. Warren Buffett has been known to recommend this book at nearly every annual shareholder's meeting, he said "You will never find a book with more useful ideas,"
Book 4: Where Are the Customers’ Yachts?
One of the most important decisions that Warren Buffett made in his life, was choosing to stay in the small city of Omaha, instead of going to the financial hub of Wall Street New York.
Now you would think a man who wanted to make as much money as possible would go to a thriving business hub like Wall Street, the so called epi-center of finance. But Buffett decided to hide away in his office in Omaha…
The book “where are the customers yachts”, teaches us an important lesson in the investing world, that most big brokers are just out to make themselves money.
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Michael Burry Is SELLING Most Of His STOCKS & The Reasons Behind It Are Intriguing
Let's dig deeper into why Michael Burry from the big-short has sold so many stocks recently...
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Michael Burry’s New WARNING | MARKET CRASH, Inflation, Shorting Stocks
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Let’s go in-depth into Michael Burry’s latest insights into inflation, a stock market crash & shorting stocks…
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Michael Burry we all know he’s the genius that predicted the 2008 financial crisis, he shorted stocks and made an absolute tonne of money. Now fast forward 13 years since that crisis, and Burry has started to become very vocal on what’s been going on the stock market. If we look at his twitter account, he’s been warning about Inflation, he’s warning about market crashes and he’s given advice on shorting stocks and where he see’s opportunity in today’s market.
Now the interesting thing is that if we type in his twitter account and go to it, we see that every one of his tweets has now been deleted.
I have no idea why he deletes his tweets, but it seems that the SEC has been keeping a tight leash on Burry ever since he started tweeting about Tesla, Bitcoin, robinhood and meme stocks. He recently even received a subpoena from the SEC in connection with its investigation into GameStop and that whole saga. So all Tweets from Burry are deleted and great we no longer get insight into the mind that predicted the 2008 financial crisis.
Well that would be the case, except one, smart, savvy person, created a twitter account called Michael Burry archive. This account collects and stores every tweet from Michael Burry and means they never get fully deleted.
And this is important because Burry is someone who’s not afraid to share his mind. He’s not afraid to be politically incorrect. He’ll tell you exactly what he thinks when it comes to the important topics…
Ok, let’s see what he’s tweeted. “The great inflation fear is returning. The inflation fear is gaining traction in the various corners of the market, putting a serious dent, in the feds assurances that it is transitory. Global angst among businesses about inflation is mounting as raw material costs rise, increasing pressure on them to raise consumer prices. The 10 year treasury yield has broken through a key resistance. Leaving more room to climb, while inflows into inflation protected ETF Funds accelerated this year. Strong relationship between inflation and commodities suggest more upside for raw material prices ahead”.
Ok, there’s a couple of parts of this tweet that we need to break down, but let’s be clear about this, Michael Burry is warning about strong inflation ahead. The Fed says it’s transitory, don’t worry too much about it, Burry says it’s here to stay. Let me show you his thinking…
Ok the first part was the cost of raw materials. With this fun pandemic that we’ve all had to go through, some of the people who suffered the most were the exporters and importers.
If we look at the price of raw materials the index shows us that they increased by nearly 18% compared to the previous year. This was led by the raw material cotton which went from a $1 in April 2020 to $1.87 a year later. Rubber a similar story $1.05 in April 2020 to $1.66 in 2021 just over a year later…
So Raw materials prices have shot up. Now what is the follow on effect from this. Businesses they don’t just accept the cost increase and decide to make a loss, no, they pass on the prices to the end consumer. This forces the price of consumer goods to go up, aka, inflation increases.
That is one big contributory factor to inflation, but it’s not the only factor pushing up prices. Burry also talked about interest rates.
Let’s take a look at the history between inflation and interest rates over 70 odd years. As we can see when interest rates started rising inflation started rising. We’ve seen this numerous times throughout history.
So what’s currently going on with interest rates? If we look at the 10 year treasury yield, the key indicator, interest rates have been going up. As per Burry’s tweet, it’s broken through a key resistance, leaving more room to climb.
So, if we go by what history tells us, the increase in interest rates is going to lead to one thing, and that’s more or at least sustained inflation going forward…
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
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Why Warren Buffett Is Holding Cash & NOT Buying Stocks
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Let's dig deeper into why Warren Buffett is holding $144 billion of cash on him, instead of choosing to invest it...
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Warren Buffett has got a gigantic cash pile on his hands, with his investing firm Berkshire Hathaway. As of the latest quarter in 2021 he’s got $144 billion dollars on him, just ripe and ready to deploy.
With all of this cash on him, you might think that he’s buying up stocks left, right and centre. But this is not the case at all, in-fact it’s quite the opposite.
As we can see, he’ barely bought any stocks this year, 5 in the first quarter, and 4 in the second quarter. And these are all extremely small buys, in-fact if you add all the buys up together, they make 1.08% of the entire portfolio. That’s nothing.
https://www.dataroma.com/m/m_activity.php?m=BRK&typ=b
Then you look at the stocks that he’s sold, and it seems that he can’t stop unloading the shares that he owns. Added all up in terms of percentage he’s sold 4 times more stocks compared to what he’s bought in 2021…
https://www.dataroma.com/m/m_activity.php?m=BRK&typ=s
So the question is why is he doing this. Why is he behaving so unusual compared to most investors who can’t stop buying. Now it’s not the easiest to find out his personal reasons for doing this, because he’s been about as quiet as a church mouse lately.
He conducted one long interview for his shareholders in May 2021, and that’s about all we’ve heard from him. He’s just been keeping it quiet, and making his moves silently tucked away in his office in Omaha.
So why. Why is Buffett holding all of this cash, $144 billion, when he could just put it in the stock market, put it in something simple like an S & P 500 index which has been doing so well recently.
Over to you Warren…
(Audio 1)
If we look back throughout history, it gives us big clues as to why Buffett’s saving up all this cash.
The somewhat comical thing about the 2008 recession, was that while most investors were panicking having the worst time of their lives, Buffett was in heaven. Stock prices were crashing, housing prices were collapsing, everyone basically lost money that year, and Buffett was smiling.
Why?
Because he could buy stocks at unbelievably cheap prices. Everything was on sale. But what was the one thing that Buffett needed if he was to take advantage of this crisis. He needed cash on him. If he didn’t have cash he wouldn’t be able to buy anything.
So in 2007 just before the recession hit, he was saving cash like a madman. He had almost $70 billion in cash, which back then was a lot of money for him. Then when the stock market crash hit, in late 2007 and throughout 2008, what do you think he did with his cash pile? He started deploying his cash and was buying stocks like a madman. Stock prices were just so cheap…
And this ended up working out very well for Buffett over the long-term, since the crisis his stock Berkshire, is up almost 500%, that’s an increase of 6 times in the price of his company…
Right now Buffett is playing the same strategy that he’s played throughout his investing career. Most investors focus on their short-term gains, Buffett focuses on the long-term, and what can we it seems to have worked out for him.
The other thing he also mentioned was that he’s always looking for those big business opportunities that come along very rarely, but when they do come along he needs a lot of cash. He needs $10’s if not $100’s of billions to buy elephant companies.
For example in 1972, Buffett needed a lot of money, at least back in those days to buy see’s candy. He bought the company outright for $25 million dollars, again a lot of money back in the day, but it paid off. In 2020, last year, See’s Candy made $383 million in sales, and $82 million in profit.
So the yearly profit is now more than triple the amount he paid for the business outright. If Buffett had not kept cash on the sidelines, he wouldn’t have been able to buy the business outright, and he wouldn’t have made this money.
Buffett needs the big cash pile for what he calls his “Elephant Gun”, it’s just in case a big business comes along, selling for a bargain, Buffett needs it on hand to snap it up…
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
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Charlie Munger: 7 Secrets To Getting Rich
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Charlie Munger, you could argue is one of the wisest humans that there is, especially when we’re talking money. In this video Munger talks about 7 life tips that he’s used to get wealthy…
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Charlie Munger, a man who grew up during the heights of the great depression, where money was scarce and hard to come by, he came through this to build a net worth of over $2 billion dollars. In this video I’m going to let Munger talk about 7 secrets that helped him grow from nothing to becoming very rich…
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How To Calculate Intrinsic Value (Full Example)
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A step by step guide on calculating the intrinsic value of a stock. I've tried to make this as simple as possible. Hope it helps!
Link To Spreadsheet Calculator (Click File – Download – Excel):
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Intrinsic value, is arguably the most important thing to know when it comes to investing. Because if you can’t calculate the intrinsic value, then how do you know if you’re getting a good deal for the stock. How can you tell if you’re not overpaying? No intrinsic value = no idea if the stock is worth buying or not. As Warren Buffett says “the critical investment factor is determining the intrinsic value of a business and paying a fair or bargain price”.
So that brings us to the question, well how do we calculate the intrinsic value of a stock? That is what this whole video is going to be dedicated to. A simple step by step guide on calculating the intrinsic value of a stock.
How To Calculate The Intrinsic Value Of A Stock
Ok, Warren Buffett makes the definition of intrinsic value crystal clear. He said “Intrinsic value can be defined simply: It is the discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining life”. So we look at the business. We determine how much cash it will generate over time. And then we discount these cash flows back to the present day.
In order to do this calculation we need 3 ingredients. 1 is the current cashflow. 2 is the cashflow growth rate. And 3 is the discount rate in order to discount the cash flows back to the present day and determine our current intrinsic value…
Step 1: Find The Cashflow Of The Stock
The reason why Buffett specifically said cashflow, instead of earnings is because earnings can easily be manipulated by the management team. But on the other hand, it is extremely hard almost impossible to manipulate the actual physical cash flows that a business generates. Put simply cash flow is more reliable than earnings.
So to find the cashflow it’s pretty easy in the modern day, all thanks to the internet. For this example I’m going to use Apple stock, since that’s quite a well-known talked about stock, even Warren Buffett owns it himself…
So the website that we use to get these metrics is called gurufocus. So let’s type in, Apple stock gurufocus… Than what we want to do is go to the DCF section. Discounted Cash Flow. And if we just zoom in right here, it will tell us what the current cash flow is for Apple stock. Right now, the free cash flow is $5.57. So remember that figure because we’re going to be using it soon. But before we need to determine what the growth rate is going to be for that cash flow…
Step 2: Determine The Cash Flow Growth Rate
Remember that Buffett said to calculate the intrinsic value, you need to discount the future cash flows of the business. In order to know the future cash flows, we need to know how much the current cash flow is going to grow by.
So for Apple the example that we’re using the current cash flow is $5.57. What will the growth rate be for this?
One of the best ways of determining future growth rate is by looking at the growth rate in the past. Then you can extrapolate this into the future. But you want to be conservative, and make it somewhat lower, since businesses grow faster at the beginning and start slow down.
So to find Apple’s past cash flow growth rate, just go to the exact same place that we were at before. Here is where we found the current cash flow. And here is where we see the past cash flow growth rates.
So don’t worry about the 1 year growth rate, it’s better to focus on the longer term ones. So over the past 5 years Apple has had an 8% growth. And the past 10 years it’s had 16.2% average yearly growth. If we look at the growth in earnings per share, it’s around the same numbers..
So in the future we can say that over the next 5 years we might see an 8% growth and the 5 years after that we might see around a 6% growth.
And now we have 2 of the key ingredients that we need to put into our formula for intrinsic value.
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Charlie Munger Just Went ALL-IN On One Stock
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Let’s dig deeper into Charlie Mungers big stock move in 2021. By the way the figures shown in the balance sheet and income statement are in Chinese yuan.
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Charlie Munger, prior to this, had not made any stock moves in over 7 years. 2020 he did nothing. 2019 nothing. 2018 nothing. In-fact to find his previous trade, you’d have to go all the way back to 2014 where he sold most of his posco shares, with the daily journal corp. But that has all changed in 2021, after years of doing absolutely no trading, no investing, he’s decided to come out and buy… drumroll please… Alibaba stock.
If we look at the Daily Journal corporation, the company in which Munger manages their investments, he made a big move, he bought 165,000 shares of BABA on the new York stock exchange, worth 19% of his entire portfolio. This now makes up to be his 3rd largest investment in total.
But Why Alibaba Now?
But that brings us on to the question, why all of sudden now? Why after not making an investment in so many years, has Munger ploughed all of this money into BABA.
The first thing that we have to point out is that the price has taken a real fall from grace. It’s down almost 50% from it’s all-time highs from $317 to the price that we see right now. Most people look at this and they think, oh my gosh better stay as far away from Alibaba stock as possible. Charlie Munger a contrarian investor thinks the opposite and he sees an opportunity…
And it’s not just Alibaba that’s getting a beating, Chinese stocks as a whole have taken a big hit. Investors are worried about the Chinese government and the power that they have over the private sector. They’re worried about increased regulations, the vie structure, potential de-listings. There’s a lot of factors that they’re concerned about.
And this is why we see Baidu, China’s google, down 54%.
Tencent China’s largest stock in terms of market cap, that’s down 38%.
JD stock, another big company down 28%. You look at most Chinese stocks, and they’ve been hit hard recently. Because investors are becoming more weary of China and their political system.
But if we take a look at Munger’s opinion on China, he thinks differently to most investors… He got asked recently at the latest Berkshire shareholder meeting on what his current thoughts were on China and if the communist leaders would allow businesses to flourish in years to come. Here’s what he said.
Audio 1
Charlie Munger he doesn’t like to discriminate whether the business is black or white. Whether it’s American or Chinese. He likes both countries. But to him, the most important thing is whether the business is catching mice. Whether the business is making money. And if we look at Alibaba, Alibaba is a cashflow machine. Let’s look at some of the numbers.
Free cash flow that’s seem some impressive growth over the past few years. It’s gone from $95.3 billion in 2018, to $101 billion in 2019 to $135 billion in 2020 to $188 in 2021. In-fact the average growth rate for free cash flow over the past 10 years has been 51.4% for Alibaba. If you compare this to Amazon there’s is 37%. So Alibaba’s growing is quicker.
Revenue it’s a similar story. Gone from $250 billion in 2018, $376 in 2019 to $717 billion in 2021. Total equity, another important metric, that’s been going up as well. $436 billion in 2018 to $1.1 trillion in 2021.
So all the underlying financial numbers have been going up, the only one that hasn’t gone anywhere is the stock price. Alibaba stock is selling for the same price that it was selling for in September 2017.
These numbers just don’t make sense from a financial standpoint, and this is a big reason why Munger has put so much money in BABA. But that’s purely from a numbers standpoint, you also need to look at Alibaba from a qualitative perspective if you want to understand why Munger bought it…
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
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Grantham: We’re In One Of The Greatest Bubbles In Financial History
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Jeremy Grantham has come out and said that the market has formed into "a bubble of epic proportions". Let's go over exactly what Grantham thinks the problem is with the current stock market...
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Jeremy Grantham is a very well known British investor. And in particular he’s well-known for his market forecasts. He predicted the burst of the 1989 Japanese asset-price bubble. He predicted the technology bubble in late 1997. And he even warned of the developing subprime mortgage and credit bubble in the late 2000’s. So he’s got a pretty good track record.
Now the interesting thing about all of this is, he’s made another big call on the stock market in 2021. He said that the market has formed into a bubble of epic proportions. Here’s his exact words.
He wrote an essay for his investing firm GMO, titled: waiting for the last dance, the hazards of asset allocation in a late stage major bubble. He wrote “the long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. Featuring extreme overvaluation, explosive price increases, frenzied issuance, and hysterically speculative investor behavior, I believe this event will be recorded as one of the great bubbles of financial history, right along with the south sea bubble, 1929 and 2000”.
But this last bit that he said is probably the most important for all of us investors. He continued that “These great bubbles are where fortunes are made and lost. Make no mistake – for the majority of investors today, this could very well be the most important event of your investing lives”.
So what’s going on in the market today & how we choose to deal with it, could determine how rich or how poor we are in the future.
So that’s 3 and a half asset classes that Grantham thinks is overpriced in 2021. First one he mentioned was the bond market. People will pay extraordinary amounts for bonds right now, which is forcing yields to be very low.
The 10 year treasury bond, that’s sitting at basically the lowest it’s ever been in history. It’s currently at 1.2% right now, meaning if you bought a 10-year treasury bond, you could expect a 1.2% return every year. Inflation at the least will be around 2-3% meaning every year, your real returns will be in the negative…
As Jim Grant said “it’s the most overpriced that it’s been in 4000 years”. But the main asset class that Grantham is warning about is the stock market.
If we take a look the S & P 500, which is the general indicator used to measure the USA market as a whole, this is sitting at 4,400 points. That’s more than 2 & half times bigger than what it was in the heights of the great financial crisis, as well as the 2000 technology bubble. In just 12 years what has happened to the market, very few could have predicted…
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
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Warren Buffett: 8 Mistakes Every Investor Makes
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Warren Buffett explains 8 investing mistakes that we can all learn to avoid…
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Warren Buffett aka arguably the greatest investor in the world has been investing for a long-time. He started when he was just 11 years old and now he’s 90. So that’s 79 years of investing experience that we can learn from.
And throughout this time he’s made a lot of mistakes as well a seen a lot of mistakes that the average investors makes. I’m going to let him explain 8 very important ones that we can all learn from…
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
The Faltering Economy Of America Leading To The Scary Rise Of China
The USA’s economy is slowing down. China’s economy is growing quick. This creates an interesting situation where China is in the process of catching up America, having the potential to become the largest economy in the world. Let’s talk about this, how it’s occurring & the effects it could have…
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The USA has had one of the greatest economies that has ever been created. Coming from nothing at the start of the 20th Century America was able to get passed its dysfunctional financial system, it’s labor conflicts and greed fueled politics and unite together to overtake Britain and become the dominant empire that we know it to be today.
But, those who have been following America’s growth over the recent decade will see that it’s starting to slow down and countries such as China & India are catching up. If we take a look at the growth of these countries we see that India & China are miles ahead of the USA. The USA has had an average GDP growth rate of around 2%, whereas China & India are growing about 3 times faster, India’s average is around 6% & China’s 7%.
This brings us the question is this the start of the end for the U.S empire and the beginning of a Chinese one?...
So what made America’s economy so great and why is it the current economic superpower of the world? How does a country with less than 5% of the world’s population generate and earn more than 20% of the world’s total income?
The USA’s economy has a few key areas that makes it up. Number 1 is finance, insurance & real estate. This makes up 22.3% of the entire economy’s GDP. This comes from areas like the banks, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, JP Morgan etc. It comes from insurance companies like Warren Buffett’s Geico, United healthcare & Cigna… This area is so big and important to the USA it’s one of the reasons why they couldn’t let the banks go bust in the 2008 housing collapse. The whole system could have folded.
The next largest sector of the USA’s economy is professional and business services, making up 12.8% in total. This comes from the lawyers, the accountants, Amazons web services, Facebook with their advertising, huge sector.
The government of course contributes as well. You’ve got things like healthcare with Medicare and Medicaid. You’ve got pensions & welfare being handed out. Money towards education & defense. These all contribute towards total GDP. Manufacturing accounts for 10.8% of USA’s total economy. Everything that’s sold on Amazon that has to be manufactured. The shoes, the phones, the appliances, the makeup, USA has a strong manufacturing industry but no where near the likes of China.
China accounted for 28.7% of the worlds global manufacturing output worth $4 trillion dollars. The USA is the second largest but still much below China at 16.8%. So the USA is 10% above Japan and China is 10% above the USA. Where America does have the major advantage over China is technology. And that is technology already spread throughout the world.
Think about Apple and all of the avid consumers they have in most countries. Huawei from China has the same, but nowhere near the extent of Apple, or the quality. Facebook is a global company with roughly 2.85 billion monthly active users. It’s the same with Twitter and Instagram, all those global platforms are American.
China has their own social media in the form of WeChat and Sina Weibo but these are not global, they’re purely Chinese. On the other hand, they are growing their global presence now through TikTok which is Chinese owned. This is a huge positive for China’s influence and power.
But if you sum all of it up, the technology, the manufacturing, the finance, insurance, business services, etc, China are increasing at a faster rate than the USA. As we said earlier it’s around a 2% average growth for America, 7% for China.
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
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Buffett: How To Invest When Stocks Are Overpriced
Let's see how Warren Buffett invest with stocks at high prices...
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If we take a step back and look at what’s been going on with the stock market over the long-term we see some interesting things. Ever since the 2008 market crash, we’ve seen one of the greatest bull runs in history. Stocks have gone up almost 500%, bringing the Russel 2000 above 2000 points. A lot of those gains have occurred in just the previous year where we saw it more than double from 1000 points, to what it is today…
Now this has left a lot of investors including myself, wondering what is the best way to invest with stock prices being so high? As always when it comes to investing, I like to go to Warren Buffett to see what he thinks and see what he is doing.
(Clip 1)
So there is a key clear strategy that Buffett employs. The main game of Warren Buffett is to find stocks that are undervalued. Ever since he picked up Benjamin Grahams book “the intelligent investor” when he was just 19 years old, he’s invested that way. Find stocks that are cheaper than their intrinsic value. Now let’s be honest in today’s market there’s hardly any of those deals floating about.
The S & P 500 is sitting at 46, that’s three times higher than the average of 15 across history. And this is the second highest that they’ve been over the past 140 years.
So Buffett’s strategy is very unique. He’s got a huge cash pile of $138 billion dollars, he could buy any stock, pretty much any business that he wants. But he’s purposely choosing to wait. Just letting that cash pile build up into something that even Jerome Powell would be impressed with.
And essentially he’s waiting for a business to come along at an attractive price. Preferably a big blue chip one, so that he can deploy most of his cash. But right now these businesses don’t seem to be showing up, they all seem to be going for sky high prices. Buffett doesn’t pay any attention to these he only focuses on the parts of the market that are worthwhile…
(Clip 2)
I want to go back to 2008 to give you a look at how Buffett’s strategy works. So 2006, 2007 the market was very pricey, Buffett was struggling to find deals. So he kept his money in short-term treasury bonds, which is considered the same as cash. In 2007 Buffett with Berkshire had $45 billion dollars of cash on him ready to deploy. At that time that was a lot of money for his investing business
Then the great financial crisis hit and stocks fell off a cliff. And we all know what Buffett did, he started buying up stocks like mad. By 2009 that cash pile had reduced to $24 billion dollars, almost half of what he had in 2007.
Buffett is probably one of the most patient investors that there is, if there’s no bargains out there he’s prepared to let his cash build up, until one comes along.
Now as he said in the interview, he used to try shorting stocks when they were clearly overvalued, but it didn’t really work out. You just don’t know how long stocks can run for, even if they are clearly overpriced. Just like people tried to profit from shorting Tesla years ago, because they thought it was well overvalued, it didn’t work out. The shorts failed. As Buffett said “it’s tough to make money shorting stocks”.
What he does like to do when he feels that most of the market is overpriced is look for those particular sectors that may offer some opportunity. As we see in 2021, Buffett did do some buying. He bought into some financial stocks like Aon & MMC, some telecom services, like Verizon & T-Mobile, some consumer stocks like RH & Kroger & also some medical ones like Abbvie, Merck & Bristoll Myers Squibb.
So there are sectors out there that still do offer some opportunity. But you have to be prepared for it. Just like Buffett is, everyday he’s in his office, reading reports, scanning through different stocks & looking for a deal. He has found a few but not many & what he’s mostly doing is accumulating cash and waiting for an opportunity to come…
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
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