Mohnish Pabrai: How To Earn A 25% Return Per Year (6 Investing Rules)
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Mohnish Pabrai often known as the Indian Warren Buffett has beat the market well and truly over the past 18 years of running his investing firm. Let's go over the key rules on how he did it...
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Mohnish Pabrai, often known as the Indian Warren Buffett has achieved an annual average return of 25.7% over the past 18 years. The way he invests according to forbes is, he has no interest in a company that looks 10% undervalued. He is angling to make five times his money in a few years. If he doesn’t think the opportunity is blindingly obvious, he passes.
Now this strategy works. Between 2000 & 2018 the assets that he’s invested has gone up over 900%, resulting in him managing more than $600 million dollars. So how did Pabrai do it? How did he dominate most investors who were struggling to get a 10% annual return, yet alone a 25% one.
I’m going to show you a couple of principles that Pabrai sticks to in order to achieve these results. Now keep in mind that if you follow these you are not guaranteed to get the same return as him. But they are likely to help improve your investing so that you can hopefully get better results…
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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Is Hyperinflation Coming Soon?
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Let's take a look at how hyperinflation has occurred throughout history and if it's likely to come in 2021 & beyond...
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In 2020 alone Jerome Powell printed 1/5th of the USA’s currency in circulation, around $10.5 trillion dollars. That’s about $27 billion dollars daily & this has left people with a big concern. That is, is hyperinflation on the horizon?
You see there’s a common pattern that occurs throughout history where 1 an unfortunate event happens, 2 the government looks to solve this through the mass printing of money which 3 leads to hyperinflation. 3 key steps we see this time and time again throughout history and it may be happening again today in the USA…
Let’s go back to Germany in the 1920’s. Germany had this goal of winning the war and using the bounty that it would reap to repay the money that they had created to fund the war. However an unfortunate event occurred and they lost the war. They were stuck in a lot of debt owing tons of money to France and a range of other nations. Germany struggled with the payments…
So instead of increasing taxes or increasing production & paying this off the natural way, they thought let’s just print more money. The government commissioned 130 printing companies to churn out piles of new currency.
It couldn’t be any surprise that what they did lead to hyperinflation.
Prices of goods and services started to get out of hand. Increasing 10’s of millions of folds in just a matter of years. All thanks to the mass printing of money the German mark had effectively become useless. There were some examples of people using the currency to burn as fuel rather as a note to buy something. A loaf of bread in Berlin that cost around 160 Marks at the end of 1922 cost 200 billion Marks by late 1923.
Yugoslavia a similar pattern occurred. In 1992 an unfortunate event happened. The country started disintegrating and fighting started in Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina. The United States placed a trade embargo on the republic. The government didn’t know what else they could do so they turned to the printing press and inflated the money supply in the country.
By Dec. 1993, the Topčider mint was working at maximum steam, issuing around 900,000 bank notes monthly that by the time the people got their hands on them they were practically worthless. Surprisingly hyperinflation had kicked in with prices doubling every 1.4 days, and the average daily inflation rate being 64.6%. That’s daily!
Now we fast forward to the year 2020, a situation which a lot of you will be much more familiar with. 2020 an unfortunate event occurs. We have a pandemic that spreads throughout the world and it requires everyone to stay at home. Businesses have to close doors, shops have to shut, the economy basically gets turned off.
So Jerome Powell head of the federal reserve does the one thing that he knows how to do best. He turns on the money printers, gets them heated up and starts printing money by the bucket load. And when I say this, this is all figuratively because these days they don’t need printing presses. Powell just has to press a button on a computer and money gets made out of thin air.
And Jerome did this to a large extent. The federal reserve committed to printing $10.5 trillion dollars in 2020 alone to offset the economic standstill. That’s almost 1/5th of the circulating U.S dollar. If we think about it that’s $27 billion dollars every single day. This is how it would look if bulldozers were pushing that money into a bottomless pit and it’s this amount that was made daily.
This is a visual outlook of $1 trillion dollars and they printed this 10 times over in just a single year. If you spent $1 million dollars a day since Jesus was born, you still would have not spent $1 trillion by now. Now think about 10 trillion…
So maybe now that inflation has started to go up in 2021, we shouldn’t be too surprised. Because as history teaches us, if we print a lot of money inflation follows. As the famous Winston Churchill paraphrased “Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it”.
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
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Dividend Stocks For Beginners 2023 | Step by Step Guide
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A step by step guide on how to invest in dividend stocks for beginners in 2022.
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When it comes to dividend stocks the ultimate goal is to eventually live entirely off of the dividends that you collect. So the very first thing that you should do before you buy any stock is decide how much money you need to live every month.
Do you need $4000 dollar of dividends coming through. $10,000? If you prefer a more luxurious lifestyle maybe $20 or $30 thousand dollars. Then you’ve got a goal and something to work towards. This is what financial freedom is, not having to work and living entirely off your investments…
But in order to get there, we have to do the hard work. And that’s saving money, finding the right dividend stocks & building up a portfolio. So the very first question you might ask is how do I actually buy a dividend stock?
This is very easy. You need to sign up to a broker. A broker is simply a platform / a company that allows you to buy stocks. So if you’re in the USA and you’re new start with something like robinhood, or m1 finance. If you’re in Canada questrade is a good place to start. Or Australia, Stake or simply a bank can be a good safe option to go with. So start by finding a cheap but safe & secure broker to begin with.
And now it’s time to buy some stocks. But there are 10’s of thousands of dividend stocks to choose from? How do we go about picking the ones that will perform well and pay a strong dividend over the long-term? This is where it gets into the fun stuff. There are 7 key things that every dividend investor should go through before buying a stock…
First thing to look at is the dividend yield. Because if they’re not paying a high enough dividend, it’s probably not worth having it in your portfolio.
So the dividend yield is simply the price of the stock divided by the dividend.
For example Mcdonald’s stocks price is $234. It’s dividend is $5.16. Hence it’s dividend yield is 2.2%.
Abbvie the pharmaceutical company has a price of $115. It’s dividend is $5.20. $5.2 divided by $115 is 4.5%.
The average dividend yield in the USA is sitting at 1.37%. So you really want something that is higher than that average, when picking out a stock.
Next take a quick look at the payout ratio. Because the dividend yield may be great, but they may be paying out all of their earnings as dividends and leaving none in the business. You see what happens is a business earns money right, that’s what it’s supposed to do. With these earnings they can either choose to reinvest it in the business or pay it out as earnings. 2 options.
If they pay 30% as dividends, and leave 70% in the business, then the payout ratio will be 30%. If they pay 80% as dividends and reinvest 20% in the business then the payout ratio is 80%. You get the point but it’s important that every stock keeps at least some of their earnings in the business, so that they can use it to expand and grow.
For example Apple did not pay a dividend for 15 odd years, because they used every last penny that they had to reinvest in the business. Then they grew their business into something big and then started paying a dividend.
You don’t want to buy a stock that pays all of their earnings as a dividend because it’s a sign that they’re not expanding and could be on the decline… So find a balance in the payout ratio.
After that you want to take a look at the stocks dividend history. Just like if you get into a relationship with someone you want to take a sneak peak at their history. Or if you hire someone for a job, you want to see how they’ve performed in the past. It’s the same with dividends.
And it’s pretty simple to find out a stocks dividend history , all you have to do is type in the stock you’re looking at, we’ll use McDonalds again cause everyone knows McDonalds and then type in dividend history macrotrends. Click on the first website that comes up. And we want to scroll down until we see dividend payout.
What we’re looking for is for them to have consistently increased dividend payouts over time. This shows that they are reliable. And McDonalds they’ve been reasonably good with this.
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
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Dalio: 6 Signs Of A Market Crash On Its Way
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In this video Ray Dalio shows us 6 signals to watch out for in terms of a bubble forming and a crash on its way...
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Ray Dalio, he’s an investor who runs the largest hedge fund in the world called Bridgewater. One of his specialties is looking at market cycles. Are markets poised to crash, are they poised to go up, what are the patterns that we can see.
In this video we go over Dalio’s 6 signals that he uses to determine if the stock market is in a bubble. But he’s not just looking at bubbles, he’s looking in particular for bubbles that are about to pop and crash the market…
Sign 1: Prices Are High Relative To Traditional Measures
First is the prices relative to traditional measures. So one of the easiest ways we can do this is simply by looking at the p/e ratio. If we look at the S & P 500 p/e ratio we can see that it’s sitting at a high amount right now, 45.3. This is much higher than the average that we see of 15 across time.
But Dalio makes a good point, and says we have to compare this to other asset classes, this way we have something to measure it against. So in order to do this we have to do a little bit of math so stick with me.
The p/e ratio currently is 45.3 if we do a little bit of algebra and reverse it, this implies and earnings yield of 2.2%. So if there was no growth in the market we would get a 2.2% return.
But we need to include growth and right now business growth in the USA is around 2% over the past 10 years.
So if we add the 2% growth on to the 2.2% earnings yield we get a total return of 4.2%! Now if we take a look at the bond market, bonds are currently yielding around 1.5%. That’s the 10 year treasury.
So if we compare the return we get in the stock market relative to the return we can get in the other main asset which is bonds, the stock market is not overly expensive. That is why Ray Dalio when he looked at this first measure, he got somewhat frothy conditions relative to previous market bubbles. That’s for the market as a whole.
However if you look at emerging tech, it’s a different story in terms of price and that reads frothy. So note that one down and let’s move on to the second measure, which we’ll have in Dalio’s own words.
Sign 2: Prices Are Discounting Unsustainable conditions
And as you can see right now, in terms of supply and demand, the way investors are buying it’s in a relatively sustainable way in terms of the overall market. In terms of emerging tech, that’s where we have a bit of a problem. There’s a frothy amount of unsustainable investing going on there….
Sign 3: New Buyers Have Entered The Market
With signal 3 Dalio takes a look at the new buyers that have entered into the market. Ones that generally don’t know too much about investing, have no experience and are simply investing because they see their friends making money in the stock market.
The example Dalio gives is let’s say you’re at a cocktail party for work. And people come up to you and they start talking about their recent investments in the market. And you ask them well have you ever invested before? They say no. Did you buy the stock at a reasonable price? They say, I don’t know how to calculate intrinsic value. You ask, do you even know what a stock is and they fumble around for an answer.
You find out that they’re simply investing because the stock market has been on a 12 year bull run and has made people rich. When you have a lot of new investors entering the market, with little understanding of it, it’s a signal of a bubble. Right now, in the total market, levels are at a frothy amount and in emerging tech it’s showing big signs of a bubble. So many new investors, buying, simply in the hopes of becoming rich. This leads us to the 4th sign which is.
Sign 4: There Is Broad Bullish Sentiment
This is a signal where, the general vibe in the market is that you can only make money. The stock market will only go up, there’s lot of quick profit to be made, you just need to be invested in the market.
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
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The 2021 Recession: How To Prepare For The Next Market Crash
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Was the 2020 market crash simply a prelude to a bigger crash in 2021? Let's discuss...
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In the year 2020 we had one of the quickest & sharpest market crashes that we’d ever seen. The S & P 500 fell 31% in just 1 month & shortly thereafter most countries in the world went into a recession.
But what we’ve seen since then has surprised most investors. Instead of the market taking years & years to recover, in a matter of months we were back to previous price levels & the months after that we were reaching new stock market highs. These prices some predicted we wouldn’t see for decades.
We had seen a recession spread throughout the world, a great pandemic hurting businesses, but stocks were at all-time market highs. Investors were richer than they’d ever been before. This has left a lot of people wondering if we’ve simply delayed the next market crash until later on in 2021. A crash that could be potentially worse than the one we saw in 2020.
What we’ll do in this video is go over the different market crash indicators & assess the likelihood on a crash occurring this year…
First indicator that I always like to go to is the Warren Buffett indicator. The Buffett indicator is Warrens favorite one on assessing where valuations are in the market.
If we take a look here, we can see that the Buffett indicator is currently ridiculously high. It’s sitting at 227% that’s 80% higher than the historical average fair value line. This is the highest that it has been over the past 30 years of this graph. Higher than what it was in the 2008 housing bubble, and even higher that what it was in the 2000 great internet bubble. Back there it was 67% higher than fair value today we’re sitting at 80% higher. This is a graph that should many stock investors question there assumptions…
227%. This means that the market value of all stock prices are over 2 times higher than what they produce, the GDP. Historically we have not seen this before, at least not over the past 70 years, that’s as far back as I can get the data on.
Let’s look at some more indicators though. One of my favorite indicators of all-time is the 10-year treasury minus the 2 year treasury, because it’s so consistent at predicting a crash…
Whenever this graph inverts to below zero it is one of the strongest signs of a recession. If we go back to 1989 it inverted below zero, and a year later we saw a recession. In 2000 we saw it invert, & in 2001 we had a recession. 2006 it inverted again & what do you know 2 years later we got hit with a great recession. Then most recently in 2019 we saw an inversion & obviously we’ve just been through a recession in 2020.
Now if we take a look at this indicator, it’s actually gone up since the 2019 inversion, up by a lot, it’s currently sitting at 1.46. 1.46 that’s nowhere near close to another dip. This means that according to this indicator we will not see another recession soon unless we see a double recession from the previous dip in 2019. That’s a total possibility.
So why is it that whenever we see this indicator dip below zero that we almost always see a recession? I believe it’s predicted the past 8/10 recessions, an 80% success rate.
It’s because investors are worried. The market is shaky & people will take any low interest, just to lock their money away for 10 years. So much so that they will take a lower interest in a 10-year treasury compared to a shorter-term 2-year treasury. They just want their money stowed away for a long-time not in something that could potentially crash soon. So 10 year treasury minus 2-year treasury that’s always a good indicator to pay close attention to…
Another thing that any smart investor should be looking at when analyzing the chances of a crash is the S & P 500 p/e ratio. Basically, what this metric does is it compares the price to the earnings. Now the average p/e ratio across time is 15. Anything above that means prices are higher compared to the earnings that they normally produce.
As you can see right now we’re sitting at a p/e ratio of 44.6. This is higher than what they were in the 2000 crash, but not quite as high as the 2008 one. Still 44.6, this means prices are almost 3 times higher than the average across history…
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
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Buffett: How To Turn Small Sums Of Money Into Large Ones
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In this video Buffett answers the question on how to invest small amounts of money into very large ones.
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
2
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Buffett: How Long Can Stocks Stay Overpriced (Before A Crash)
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In this video Warren Buffett explains how market irrationality can go on for a long time but eventually the market is a weighing machine not a voting machine.
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
Bill Gates Has Sold Huge Stock Positions: A Warning To All Investors
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If you look at Bill Gates recent moves in the first quarter of 2021 he's sold 14 stocks & bought just 1. The question is why?
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Thanks to the SEC, every 3 months we’re lucky enough to get a peak into what investors like Bill Gates, Warren Buffett & Ray Dalio are buying and selling. Legally they have to disclose this to the public, or else they’d be more than happy to do it behind closed doors. Now I’ve just been analyzing the stock trades of one of the wealthiest men on the planet, Bill Gates. And if we look at his moves, they will intrigue you…
So, in quarter 1, 2021, he sold out of 14 of his stock positions. Some he sold 100% of & some he reduced by big percentages. Then if we click & look at how many stocks he bought in the first quarter of 2021, it was just 1 stock. A stock by the name of Coupang, which we’ll look at a bit later on in the video…
But 14 stocks sold, and only 1 stock bought is very intriguing. So let’s go over the stocks that he sold & I got to tell you, I don’t know how happy his billionaire friends are going to feel about it…
So he sold 100% out of Liberty group A & Liberty group C. Liberty is a telecommunications company based on broadband services, mobile services & telephone services. Next very interesting, he sold 100% of his twitter stock. Jack Dorsey I’m sorry but Gates is no longer an investor. Amazon, Jeff Bezo’s e-commerce company he also sold 100% out of.
Very interesting, because if we take a look at Amazons stock price it’s up over 80% since the pandemic in 2020. So maybe he’s just sold out of this because he thinks it’s overvalued. But Amazon wasn’t the only big company on Gate’s selling list, Apple was let go of as well. We can see that Gates sold 100% out of his Apple position over 1 million shares sold.
So those are some big companies that Bill doesn’t want a piece of anymore, Apple, Amazon & Twitter! Next let’s look at the stocks that he’s reduced… So Liberty Global C he reduced massively by 86%, as well as the general liberty global by 82%.
FedEx & UPS the delivery companies both were reduced by significant amounts. 50% & 38%. Walmart the largest retailer in the world, 4 million of his shares were sold there, worth 35% of his portfolio. Jeez Gates has done a lot of selling!
Next on the list is Canadian national railway, something which he’s been a long time holder in, Gates sold 18% of position. Now 18% compared to how much he sold of the rest of his positions is relatively small, but normally this would be considered a big sell.
Now one of Gates long-time friend is someone called Warren Buffett, Aka the greatest investor in the world, & Gates has been an owner in Buffett’s company Berkshire Hathaway for some time now.
However as we can see, he’s just sold a decent chunk of it. He reduced his position by 11.9%, 5 million shares sold, worth 6% of Gates entire portfolio. Very interesting move, because most of Buffett’s investors hold their stock for life & never sell. However Berkshire Hathaway is still Gates number 1 position worth $9 billion dollars 4 times bigger than his second largest position.
And his last 2 positions that he sold was caterpillar & crown castle international, he reduced them by 9.8% & 4.6% respectively. So there you have it, 14 stocks sold already this year, some of those positions he completely sold out of. Apple, Amazon & Twitter all gone.
The one stock that he did decide to buy was a south Korean e-commerce company by the name of Coupang. Coupang is a company that only went public in March this year, and some people are touting it, as South Koreas version of Amazon. Except it’s still very much in it’s early growth phase, as they’ve had a $295 million dollar net loss. Most of their money has gone into expanding their business…
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
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The Problem With The 2021 Dogecoin Bubble
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Many people are picking dogecoin to be the next bitcoin. Some say that's ridiculous and it's going crash to 0. Let's go over these arguments and discuss if dogecoin is actually a smart investment to make...
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Created as a joke in 2013, dogecoin has become one of the largest cryptocurrencies that exist today. It’s larger than Litecoin, tether, bitcoin cash & Chainlink. But how did it get so big, is it still a good investment, or is it in a bubble that will inevitable pop?
So on December the 6th 2013 IBM software engineer Billy Markus, and Adobe software engineer Jackson Palmer set out to create a cryptocurrency as a joke. They combine the concept of bitcoin with the meme popular throughout the internet called doge. The result = dogecoin. Just like many people thought Trumps campaign was a joke, or flying an aero plane a 100 years ago, sometimes these things end up changing the world.
And dogecoin only really started to gain transaction in July 2020 when the TikTok community decided to rally around it. They began the hashtag #dogecointiktok challenge which encouraged the community to buy the stock to get it’s price to $1. They worked out that if all 800 million tiktok users bought $25 of dogecoin everyone would reach $10,000 when the price = $1. And this hype from the tiktok community grew the price of the doge. It went from being worth .0023 at the start of the challenge to .0046 by the end of that year.
The dogecoin challenge was somewhat successful with the tiktokers having doubled their money. But there was plenty more to come. January 2021, something unprecedented happens. The everyday working people fight back at large corporate hedgefunds, through buying up shares in gamestop, which hedgefunds had shorted. It was clear that the public had no trust for big corporate powers & they were showing this with their money.
We saw the gigantic rise in the price of Gamestop as the people fought back and instead of shorting it, invested in it. But during this time, we also saw the huge rise in the price of dogecoin. From late January to early February the price of the doge had gone up more than tenfold from .007 to .08.
It was clear that people were starting to trust large controlled currencies less & were moving their money into cryptocurrencies that are decentralized. Not controlled by the government, not controlled by anyone. But this was only the start of the doge. I bring to you the man, the myth, the legend Elon Musk…He’s the richest man in the world, he’s got one of the most followed accounts on twitter & he’s a huge fan of dogecoin…
In 2021 he starts flooding his twitter account with tweets on dogecoin and its price starts taking off. January 28th he tweets a mock up vogue photo, but instead of saying vogue it says dogue. Dogecoin investors go crazy and it shoots up 682%!
February the 4th he tweets “dogecoin is the people’s crypto”. Dogecoin price rises 44%.
February the 7th he tweets “who let the doge out”. Investors react and it goes up 57%.
April the 14th we see on his twitter “doge barking at the moon”. Crypto talk for the price going up like a rocket. And of course dogecoin prices react & they go up. April the 28th Musk sneakily announces that he will talk about dogecoin on his snl skit & prices take off rising 140%.
Thanks to Elons influence and the purchase of dogecoin from a range of celebrities including Snoop Dogg, Mark Cuban, Kevin Jonas, internet celebrity Jake Paul, Dogecoin becomes a mainstream investment and it’s price goes to all-time highs…
Then something weird happens, Elon Musk goes on SNL, jokingly calls Dogecoin a hustle, howls to the moon & its price starts to tumble. However even after it’s recent crash, dogecoin is still among the 4 most valuable cryptocurrencies with a market cap larger than Ford, Kraft Heinz & Delta. This leaves the burning question, is Dogecoin still in a bubble, or should we be buying it because of the potential that it has?...
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
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Warren Buffett: Inflation Is Rife Throughout America, Do This Now!
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Warren Buffett has sent a warning out to all investors on inflation. Let's go over what he had to say...
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Every year Warren Buffett makes an appearance and holds his annual shareholder meeting. He talks about anything investing, the most interesting things that have happened over the past year and what may be to come. Now what stood out to me in this shareholder meeting was when he started talking about inflation.
He said “we’re seeing very substantial inflation, it’s very interesting. We’re raising prices, people are raising prices to us!” “The economy is red hot” “everybody’s got more cash in their pockets!".
And what do you think happens when everyone’s got more cash in their pockets and the economy’s firing. It means people are using their excess cash to buy things, which is pushing prices higher and higher. This is well known in economics, higher demand, same supply, equals an increase in price.
And Buffett’s seeing this with the businesses that he owns and runs. And by the way he owns a lot of businesses throughout America. He said in the meeting “take homebuilding, we’ve got 9 home builders, in addition to our manufactured housing which is the largest in the country, so we really do a lot of housing! The costs are just up, up, up!”
Then he talks about his furniture stores and the prices there. He said “every week I call Blumpkin (that’s the manager of his company Nebraska furniture mart), & we go over day by day what happened at 3 different stores, In Chicago, In Kansas city, in Dallas, & it just won’t stop. People have money in their pocket & they pay higher prices”… End quote.
You and I both know where so much of this money is coming from. It’s coming for free in the mail through stimulus checks. So far $867 billion dollars has been spent by the government on giving out these checks. Now where do you think this money goes. Well it goes into a range of different places.
Some people put it in the stock market. Does it surprise you that the stock market is up 80%, since they enacted their first stimulus package issued in early 2020. Some people used it for real estate and real estate deposits. We’ve seen these prices go up as well.
Some people used it for groceries. We’ve seen the price of food increase in 2020 & 2021 as well. It’s hovering around that 3 – 4% inflation rate. Gasoline prices increased along with the stimulus checks. They recovered from a big oil crisis and shot up in 2020 & 2021.
All of this is inflation. The increase in the prices of goods & services. Whether that’s food, gas, cars, or even when you’re buying shares from the stock market, we’ve seen higher prices in all of these areas… People are getting more free money from the government and it’s pushing prices higher.
But it’s not only the people who are getting this money, it’s also the businesses.
We saw the fed aid $2.3 trillion dollars worth of loans to small and medium sized businesses. We saw 10’s of billions of dollars been given directly to certain businesses with no clause in having to pay it back.
And this money has helped companies carry on with their business, and keep their supply chains running. But what’s resulted is supply costs have gone up. The businesses don’t bear the brunt of these costs themselves, they move them on to the prices of the products that they sell. This is another reason why we’re seeing inflation in so many different key areas. Supply chain costs.
As Buffett said “corporate prices go up in a month or two, our costs are going up, supply chains are all screwed up, it’s almost a buying frenzy”. “everybody’s got more cash in their pockets!”
And this cash that is getting put into the economy is forcing prices higher. We can see this with transportation, the CPI has gone from 194 to 215 in a year. Same with import prices. That’s gone from 118 to 129.7. Export prices have increased by even more. 118 to 133.
It’s no wonder when you look at the consumer price index as a whole it’s increased by so much since the pandemic. The CPI is our main way of seeing what’s happening with inflation, and prices are continuously going up, post pandemic.
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
11
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A New Crisis Is Coming & The Impact That It Will Have Is Scary
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There is a new crisis at hand, that not many people are paying attention to. If we don't address this soon it's impact could be huge. Let me explain...
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In 2020 we had one of the worst pandemics that the world had ever seen. Now this had a big effect on the economy. Businesses shut down, people lost their jobs, GDP growth went into the strong negatives. This is something that we haven’t seen in over 80 years since the 1930 great depression.
But since then, we have recovered a lot. People are generally back into their jobs, businesses have started to open & GDP’s now in the positives. But there is something going on behind the scenes which has helped this somewhat unnatural recovery & it can cause an even greater crisis in the future.
You see, when the pandemic hit, and all of these bad things started to happen with the economy we were in real trouble. We were at risk of seeing one of the worst recessions we’d ever seen. Nowhere in the history of the world have we shut everything down, to prevent an illness from spreading.
And the government didn’t know what to do. The fed didn’t know what to do. Economists were squabbling amongst each other for solutions. And in the end they had to play the one card that no one really wants to play. They pushed the red button, the trump card that saves things for the moment but causes severe damage down the line. And that card that I’m talking about is the debt card.
You see when these businesses were shutting, and people were getting employed, they needed money. If they didn’t have money, businesses would close for good, people would be on the streets, and we’d be talking about a great depression like the 1930’s.
So the government steps in and says something unprecedented. Something never said in history before. “I’m going to give everyone money for free”. If you’re a business and you have a poor credit history, it doesn’t matter, you can have the money too. If you’re junk status, with a c corporate credit rating, we’ll bail you out that’s fine no problem. If you are a citizen of the united states, you’ll get free money.
And this strategy actually worked. The government borrowed money and gave it out to everyone and anyone. The economy started to recover. The 2020 recession, we started getting lifted out of. The stock market magically changed direction and started shooting up, and then it started breaking record highs…
The day had been saved by the government and the federal reserve. No great recession. No economic troubles. No worries. Hmm… Unfortunately with economics just like in physics every action that you take has a reaction. And it doesn’t necessarily come right away. But it will always come back to bite you.
So what’s happened is we’ve decided we’re going to get in more debt. And not just a little a lot. During the fiscal year 2020, debt held increased by $4.21 trillion dollars—the largest annual dollar increase in history. Our debt to GDP ratio is now sitting at 129%, essentially the largest it’s ever been in history.
No the 2008 housing bubble it wasn’t close to this amount it was 65%. We’re almost double that. 2000 technology bubble it was 57% we’re more than double that. In-fact you’d have to go all the way back to world war 2 to try find levels of debt similar to this. At the highest point in world war 2 it was 121% in which we are higher than that right now. As you can see, at no point in history have we seen levels of debt anywhere near this.
The Average debt to GDP for the U.S is 63% over the past 80 years. This is interesting because the world bank conducted a study in 2013 and found that any mark above 77% slows economic growth in the future. We’ve always been below that mark until the past decade.
And now we’re well above it at 129%, 52% above the tipping point of 77. This means with these high levels of debt, our economic growth in the future is going be dramatically impacted.
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
29
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Michael Burry Is Selling Stocks & The Factors Behind It Are Alarming
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If we look at Michael Burry's most recent trades, he's sold 71.5% of his portfolio. The question is, why did he do this...
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I’ve been going through quite a few billionaire investors portfolio’s recently and I’ve noticed an alarming pattern. And that pattern is that a lot of them are selling out of their stock positions. Michael Burry, the person who became famous from shorting the 2008 housing bubble, shown in the movie the big short, he’s actually sold out of most of his portfolio. Let’s take a look at this…
In the most recent filings, if you add up all of the stocks that he’s sold, just down that far right hand side, it comes to 71.55% of his total stock portfolio has been sold. That is a lot of selling and it is very rare that you’ll see an investor sell out of so much of his portfolio like that…
So we need to first of all go through all of the stocks that Burry has decided to sell, & secondly we need to figure out why he’s sold so much of his stocks. This is not normal. So we’ll go through the stocks that he decided to sell 100% out of first.
Liberty sirus xm the mass media company, that was entirely sold, worth 0.27% of the portfolio.
Precision drilling again 100% sold worth 1.87% of his portfolio. ROIC
Sold out of completely as well, same with Altria the tobacco company.
Qorvo, Trip.com & CVS health all completely sold worth around 5% of the portfolio.
The next 2 are very interesting, Facebook, obviously the social media giant, Burry no longer wants to have any capital in. And this was a relatively big position 8.5% of his portfolio. He would have sold this between $260 & $290 a share.
And the big one is Gamestop, the stock that Burry originally saw value in at a low share price, before all of the reddit drama, he’s sold 100% out of that position, 1.7 million shares worth. Now moving on to the positions that he’s reduced...
He reduced MSG networks, the radio and television company by 59.4%, discovery networks, he sold out of half of his position.
Western digital he reduced by 40%, Qurate he reduced by 36%, Uniti, 27.5%, RPT realty, 25.9%, Designer brands, he sold out of quarter of his stocks there, all state he reduced by 16.67%, and lastly Kimball international the furniture brand, he sold by 9.09%.
So there we go, finally got through it all. Guy’s that is a lot of selling by the famous investor as we said earlier on 71.55% of his overall portfolio was sold. That’s a total of 18 stocks. This is not something that you see everyday.
So I want to get into the underlying reasons why he’s sold, some of the patterns that I see, and also some of the tactical investments that he has made…
Now the first thing that we have to mention is the danger that Burry see’s right now in the market. Burry see’s a lot of similarities between the housing market that he shorted in 2008 & today’s market…
He said “index fund inflows are now distorting prices for stocks and bonds in much the same way that CDO purchases did for subprime mortgages more than a decade ago. The flows will reverse at some point, and “it will be ugly when they do”.
So basically in the 2008 housing crash, people were able to borrow a lot of money to buy houses, through these subprime mortgages. What this did to the prices of houses, was made them shoot up. And Burry thinks we’re seeing a similar thing today in our stock market. We’re getting passive investing, short-term and new investors entering the market, buying stocks, resulting in them also shooting up in price. Right now we’re at all-time stock market highs, well surpassing prices before the pandemic…
This creates along with a couple of other factors, creates enormous risk of a crash, which may be the answer why Burry has sold so many stocks.
He said on twitter “cause and effect is not always what they seem, but students of the market should study history, and look for correlations or analogies with prior behaviors, given human nature is a constant”.
“This is very much like the bubble in synthetic asset-backed CDOs before the Great Financial Crisis in that price-setting in that market was not done by fundamental security-level analysis”.
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
23
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Ray Dalio Sends A Warning On A Horrid Economic Collapse Ahead
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Ray Dalio has come out and said we're in the later stages of the debt cycle. Let's talk about why this is the case & the impact this can have..
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Ray Dalio recently did an interview with Bloomberg finance and in this interview he sent out a bit of a warning. He explained why we are in the later stages of the debt cycle and why this is a problem…
So let me explain that, sometimes it can be a little hard to grasp exactly what Dalio’s getting at. I’m not entirely sure if you’re aware of this or not, but we’ve had a pandemic over the past year and a bit. This pandemic has produced a number of things including business troubles, job losses, a struggling economy. And this in turn means we’re in need of a lot of money, from the government.
So the government says yea, I guess I’m forced to give you this money, but I can’t produce. So I’m going to get my friend, the central bank to do it. And so the Jerome Powell, head of the central banks, says yea, I guess I have to give you this free money, and he goes into his infinite money printer and starts engines rolling.
Prints a lot of money, obviously it’s all done online now, and he lends it to the government. This is called debt monetization. This type of behavior Dalio says is typical of what happens in the late stages of the cycle…
So here’s the situation, let me break this down piece by piece. First of all, we’ve talked about this, the government is in a situation now, where they have to sell bonds. They just need the money to fund all of their spending. And then we take a look at these bonds, they’re pretty terrible.
Ok, so right now you get 1.7% a year on a ten year treasury bond. Being straightforward, that is bad! Because inflation on average is around 2-3% a year, so if you own one of these you actually lose money each year…
So we’re in a situation now where, the government has to sell a lot of bonds, to fund itself, but they’re selling a poor product so to speak. Because with inflation, you actually lose money on these bonds.
So there’s causes a big dilemma for both the government and the fed. No one wants to buy their bonds. And if no one buys them, then the government doesn’t have any money to give out as stimulus checks or loans for businesses who need it. And the economy risks a collapse.
So the fed can either allow this risk to occur, or they can print money and buy the bonds themselves. The problem if you do this, is first you risk the devaluation of the dollar. Because you’re putting more of them into the system, and because there’s more they become worth less. And secondly you risk inflation.
So the FED is stuck between a rock and hard place, and either decision that they make, has severe consequences…
And the other thing, as if this wasn’t bad enough, the current holders of government bonds, a lot of them aren’t happy with the returns that they’re getting. Because it’s negative once you account for inflation. So these holders of government debt could potentially start selling their bonds. Foreign investors & US investors who own most of the debt, might just decide hey, there’s better places to put my money.
And so if they start selling, plus the government has to sell bonds to fund itself, as Dalio says “that could produce a real dilemma. That’s classic late long-term debt cycle type stuff”.
So over the past year or so, a big talking point when it comes to investors is the rise of the 10 year treasury bond. It went from about 0.6% to 1.7%. Almost tripling. So this has affected bond holders a lot. The next stage as Dalio talks about, and we haven’t seen this yet, is when it starts to affect stock prices.
Because the more these yields go up, the more investors start saying hang on, maybe it’s better that I get out of pricey stock market and into something safe like long-term bonds. As Dalio said, maybe we see a 10 or 15% correction and the federal reserve can tolerate it. But after it’s gone through bonds, gone through stocks, the next stage is it starts hurting the economy...
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
20
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How To Profit From Huge Inflation Ahead (For Beginners)
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Many investors are concerned about high inflation coming over the next couple of years (& for good reason). Let's go over the key methods to profit from inflation instead of lose...
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Inflation has been a big concern for a lot of investors, particularly recently. You know it’s been something that we haven’t had to worry about for the past 40 or so years. We’ve managed to maintain it around that 2% mark and that is perfect. But there are a range of investors like Ray Dalio, Charlie Munger & Michael Burry who are warning that inflation may be on the horizon.
Munger cautioned “at the end if you print too much money, you end up with something like Venezuela”, a country torn apart from inflation.
Michael Burry said “#History is not useless,” “This text explores the 1970s American #inflation, which is more relevant today than one might think.”
Dalio said “Now that the economy is rebounding inflation pressures are rebounding.”
So you’ve got not just these investors, but well known investors from around the world warning of inflation. You’ve also got a bunch of statistics, that point towards inflation being a problem in perhaps the not so distant future. I’ll show you these soon.
But the most important thing that we’re going to discuss is how you can actually profit from inflation. Because I’ll tell you this, a lot of people are going to get wiped out from what is to come. You need to know how to prepare…
So let’s take a look at some of these warning signals that we’re seeing.
First this is something that not enough people are talking about is the consequences of all this printing of money. So we had the pandemic and we had a lot of people who needed money. The government did what they pretty much had to do, and they backed in the trucks and shipped off a bunch of free money to the people.
They gave trillions of dollars to businesses that were struggling with their loans, struggling with emergencies and had the general need for cash.
They spent hundreds of billions with tax relief given to individuals who weren’t working. Hundreds of billions into medicine, and the same again for government needs.
But this money it came from somewhere. And basically what happened was money grew on trees and the federal reserve printed it. Created it out of nothing. And all of our problems were magically solved. If only that were the case, and if only printing money had no consequences.
But anyone who understands sound economic principles will know that this isn’t the case. One of the major problems that comes with printing trillions of dollars, is inflation. Because if you start handing out free money to people, demand for goods increases. They have more money to spend. And when demand increases, what happens to prices, they rise.
As Charlie Munger says if you kept this going you’re going to end up like Venezuela, which suffered from hyperinflation. But this is just 1 of the ingredients that is causing worrying signals of inflation. The other is the ageing world population…
As we can see back in the 1970’s, we had a lot more young people relative to retirees. USA in the 70’s there was more than double “young” people compared to retirees. Today it’s almost the same. UK similar story in the 70’s there were more young compared to retirees. Todays it’s switched to the opposite way round, more retirees than young.
If you keep going throughout the developed economic countries they tell a similar story. All of these strong economies are declining when it comes to the amount of the working age population. China instead of growing it’s slightly declining, developed countries same story, eastern Europe same story. The only one that isn’t is Africa, which is one of the poorest continents.
Now this decline is important because if you have less able bodies working, less supply, it means the amount you can produce is less. And it means the price for labor goes up. Now businesses who hire this labor, they transfer this cost on to consumers, aka they increase the prices of goods and services, aka inflation…
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
16
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Warren Buffett Is Selling Out Of His Stocks & The Reasons Behind It Are Scary
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If we take a look at the most recent 13f filings, Warren Buffett over at Berkshire Hathaway has been selling more stocks compared to buying. Let's analyze why...
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One of the most important things that I like to do, is keep up to date with billionaire investors portfolios. What stocks are they buying, what stocks are they selling, why are they doing this. And the recent portfolio that I’ve been looking at is Warren Buffett. Aka the investing GOAT.
Now Warren Buffett he runs an investing firm, which is the largest in the world, Berkshire Hathaway. If we take a look at their portfolio they’ve been doing a lot of selling, in-fact more selling than buying. They sold / reduced 11 stocks in the most recent quarter, and they bought / added to just 9 stocks.
So let’s take a look at this, this is very interesting. JP Morgan the bank, he sold 100% of his position. Pfizer 100% sold, 3.7 million shares in total.
PNC Financial services again 100% sold, 1.9 million shares.
MT bank, he no longer hold any shares in, all sold out of.
And the last one that he sold 100% out of his is Barrick gold corporation the gold mining company. I find that sale particularly interesting during this time, we can talk about that soon.
But let’s continue along this list. Wells Fargo, almost 60% was sold out of this bank stock. Suncor Energy, 28%. Liberty 10.2%, General Motors the giant vehicle manufacturing company that was reduced by 9.38%.
Apple, that’s an interesting one, he’s made a lot of money with Apple stock over the past couple of years. But recently he sold out of 6% of his position.
And the last stock that he sold was U.S Bancorp. 0.6% worth a total of 823 thousand shares.
Now I find this very interesting because Warren Buffett those of you who know him, he’s normally against selling stocks. That’s why he says “our favourite holding period is forever”. Aka never selling stocks. But if we look at his most recent fillings, he’s kind of been doing the opposite of what he likes to do. And these as you just saw, they’re not small sales. They’re not 1,2,3,5% reductions.
They are huge reductions in the stocks that he owns. He sold 100% out of JP Morgan, Pfizer, PNC, M & T Bank & Barrick Gold. He sold 58% out of Wells Fargo, & 28% out of Suncor Energy. So the main question that we should be asking ourselves. Is why is he selling out of so many of his positions. Particularly the banking sector.
PNC Financial, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, M & T Bank, US Bancorp, all of these apart from US Bancorp he dramatically reduced his positions in. Most he sold completely out of. And the banking sector is normally one which Buffett likes. He’s owned bank stocks for a number of year now, so what’s changed?
First is the economic environment that we’re in. All of this debt, all of this free money, these low interest rates that we see. A lot of investors are worried about a new great depression. And what happened in the great depression most of the banks failed and had to shut down.
In-fact in the last financial crisis, Buffett actually had to help bail out goldman sachs with $5 billion dollars to help it recover. So it is fair to argue that over the next 5 years, especially if we see tough economic conditions, banks could struggle…
And this could be made even worse with the rise of finance been done through paypal, through square, and with the rise of pure online banks like SoFi. I think it’s for these reasons and probably a few more why Buffett’s letting go of bank stocks big time…
But don’t forget that Warren Buffett is what’s known as a value investor. An investor who looks for cheap prices relative to the actual value of the stocks. And you could argue that right now, the valuations of stocks are the opposite of what value investor likes. A value investor likes low prices, and right now prices are high.
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
65
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Michael Burry Warns of An Upcoming Market Crash
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If you've been following Michael Burry on twitter you will know he has sent out several warnings about a stock market crash. Let's see exactly what he's saying and what we need to watch out for...
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Michael Burry I don’t know if you guys have watched the big-short or not, but he was the one who made a tonne of money by betting that the housing market would collapse in 2008.
Fast forward 13 or so years and he is sending another warning our way for us investors. He thinks that index investing, stock hype groups and free money is causing the stock market to soar in terms of prices, and he warns that this may not be sustainable. Here’s what he said…
“Speculative stock #bubbles ultimately see the gamblers take on too much debt” “The market is dancing on a knife's edge,".
"People say I didn't warn last time, I did, but no one listened. So I warn this time. And still, no one listens. But I will have proof I warned.".
So these are big words from someone who has a proven history of predicting correctly a market crash. Obviously that’s what he did back in 08.
He even went of further to make his twitter display Cassandra. This is a reference to the priestess who in Greek mythology was cursed to share true prophecies, but no one ever believed her.
Burry in some way is saying he is the financial version of this priestess, he’s freely giving out warnings on his twitter account, but not too many people are paying attention. They’re just enjoying the short-term returns that they’ve had, but let’s see who wins in the long-term. So I want to dig a bit further into some of the things that he’s saying and what we need to watch out for as investors…
First of all we’ve got to talk about all of these hype groups that we’ve seen on reddit, on YouTube and across the internet.These hype groups they promote certain stocks, generally high growth, risky ones, and a bunch of short-term money gets plowed into them.
For example the recent saga that we’ve seen on wall street bets, with Gamestop, with Amc, and all the other ones. We saw these stocks get out of control in terms of price, and people weren’t afraid to throw their stimulus checks into them.
Were they researching the fundamentals of these stocks? Most of course no. Did they understand the risk with these stocks? most of course didn’t, they were trying to make short-term quick money.
Michael Burry who actually invested in Gamestop, when it was cheap, was not happy with all of this so-called uneducated money going into Gamestop. He said “If I put $GME on your radar, and you did well, I’m genuinely happy for you,”. “However, what is going on now – there should be legal and regulatory repercussions. This is unnatural, insane, and dangerous.”…
And one of the reasons for this, is just because there’s so much free money floating around. We’ve seen the new $1.9 billion in stimulus checks come through. We’ve seen the fed keeping interest rates to pretty much all-time lows. This free money a lot of it is entering the stock market, & a lot of it is entering these so called meme stocks. Michael Burry clearly doesn’t think this is natural or sustainable and I tend to agree with him on this point…
The next thing that Burry talks about that is inflating stock prices, is all of this passive investing. As he said “Passive investing's IQ drain, and #stonksgroup hype, add to the danger,".
He said a while ago, that “index fund inflows are now distorting prices for stocks and bonds in much the same way that CDO purchases did for subprime mortgages more than a decade ago. The flows will reverse at some point, and “it will be ugly” when they do.
Burry mentioned that “Central banks and Basel III have more or less removed price discovery from the credit markets, meaning risk does not have an accurate pricing mechanism in interest rates anymore. And now passive investing has removed price discovery from the equity markets. The simple theses and the models that get people into sectors, factors, indexes, or ETFs and mutual funds mimicking those strategies -- these do not require the security-level analysis that is required for true price discovery.
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
28
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Ray Dalio Explains Why 2021’s Economy Is Worse Than 2008
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In this video Ray Dalio explains the issues with today's economy and why in a variety of ways it is worse than 2008.
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Ray Dalio he’s the founder of the largest investing hedge fund in the world Bridgewater. Bridgewater has over $150 billion dollars of assets that it invests.
Now the founder, Dalio, is someone that likes to analyze patterns when it comes to investing. And today, in this current market, Dalio see’s a number of flaws that could bring it down.
First thing he mentions was the wealth gap. Now this graph is slightly old, but is shows you what Dalio is talking about. The gap between the rich and the poor is widening. Basically ever since that 1987 mark, where we started to see the economy strengthen!
Even since the pandemic, where a lot of people have lost jobs and gotten poorer, the 10 richest billionaires have gained a further $540 billion combined in wealth over this period. Now this has caused tension between the rich and the poor and it’s one of the factors that makes our system shaky.
2nd he mentions the values gap. This growing divide that we seem to be seeing between the right and the left. You know it’s like no, you’re either trump, or biden, no in-between. You’re either democrat or republican and we don’t want to here from the other side. And this caused more friction.
And lastly you mix these 2 things with the large amounts of debt that we have in the system, and it’s not a good combination we can put it that way.
You know if we take a look at USA’s national debt it’s above $27 trillion dollars. That is more than the entire amount of total gdp produced in a given year. So if you take all good’s and services produced in 2020, and spent it all on paying of debt, you wouldn’t even cover it.
So it’s this along with widening wealth gaps, and values gaps that makes the economy shaky. Potentially even worse than 2008, this is what Dalio says…
(Insert clip 2)
So you’ve got the central bank, aka the fed, who have to print money. They don’t really have a choice. They’ve got debt payments to make, they’ve got to give free money to people who don’t have jobs, and hand out loans to businesses who without it wouldn’t survive.
So normally the right way you should pay off debt, is by actually producing more. You want your businesses to be selling more, being more innovative, making more profit and paying more taxes and using that then paying off debt that way. Not simply through the printing of money which brings a whole list of concerns…
(Insert Clip 3)
So these bonds issued by whether it’s corporate bonds, or government bonds is allowing these institutions to go out and buy things. This in turn does help the economy, because it’s through these bonds that money is injected into it.
But it’s not natural. And as Dalio said those claims on those bonds is far greater than what would be allowed to happen. The natural way of growing the economy would just be through producing more and innovation. Not through the endless issuing of bonds…
(Insert clip 4)
So if we take a look at this ‘machine’, there’s a lot of kinks in the way it’s turning right now. First of all people assume that the USA will remain the worlds reserve currency, this is not necessarily the case. The dollar is getting weakened the more free money that is given out and unsound economics that is being used.
- Look at the U.S dollar compared to the Chinese yuan over the past year. Significantly weakened.
- The U.S dollar compared to the U.K pound, again same story.
- The U.S dollar compared to the Australian dollar.
It’s been weakened a lot lately and don’t fool yourself in thinking that the U.S, could not lose it’s reserve currency status. It can if unsound economic methods continue to be used…
(Insert Clip 5)
And these economic conditions that we’re currently in, remind Dalio most of the 1930’s.
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
60
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Bill Gates Is Selling Out Of His Stocks & The Reasons Behind It Are Frightening
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Bill Gates has sold 11 stocks and bought just 1 if you look at his recent 13f filings. Let’s go over the stocks that he sold (& the 1 he bought), and analyze the potential reasons why he is selling.
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So we all know who Bill Gates is. He’s one of the richest men in the world, with a net worth of with a net worth of around $127 billion dollars. Now he did this through creating his own company Microsoft, but he also did it, through very smart investing.
Now I don’t know if you guys have been paying attention to the investing moves that Gates has been making lately, but, what can I say on them, they’re very interesting to say the least. So in his recent 13f filings he sold & reduced 11 stocks and bought just one. So let’s take a look at this.
Uber, the world ride hailing company, he sold 100% of his position.
Boston properties he did the same thing, he reduced it by 100% selling 1.1 million shares.
Alibaba, one of China’s biggest companies, he has sold in his recent 13f filings, 100% of his position.
Going up a bit, these 3 stocks he’s reduced by 50%.
Google or Alphabet (same thing), he sold all of his shares in.
Amazon, Jeff Bezos won’t be too happy with this one, 50% of the Bill & Melinda Gates trust position was reduced. Even the great Apple, would not avoid the wrath of Gates investment decisions, 50% gone.
So these are big moves that Gates is making. Normally when an investor sells some of his position, it’s normally a couple of percent. If it’s 5% people are normally woah, that’s a big deal, that’s a big sale.
But Bill Gates, he’s selling 100% out of his positions like Uber & Alibaba, and 50% out of big stocks like Amazon, Apple & Google. These are big moves, do not make any mistake about that.
Some of his smaller moves, which are still actually big, include liberty group, the communications company, that was reduced by a whole quarter, the great Berkshire Hathaway was reduced by 10.6% not sure how Buffett will feel about that one, and the last position that was sold, was Canadian National railway, the only small sale of 0.86%.
And if we look at all the stocks that he’s bought in the most recent quarter it was…. Just 1. A stock called Shrodinger, a healthcare stock which we’ll talk about a bit later on. So I’ll repeat that, 11 stock sales, and 1 stock buy. And when I say stock sales, not just small sales, not just small reduction, 100% & 50% type reductions.
And what we really want to know as investors is why? Why has Gates made such big sales in these massive companies. Now Gates is a bit like Warren Buffett they don’t like to talk too much about their personal investments. The only reason we know about his buys and sales, is because he legally has to disclose them.
But Gates is a value investor, just like Buffett that’s who he learned investing from when he was a lot a younger. And the pattern that you’ll notice with a lot of stocks that he’s sold, is they’re very high in price, which a lot investors avoid.
Uber that’s currently selling for $56 a share, market cap is over $100 billion and it’s not even generating any profit.
Amazon price wise has gone up more than 400% over the past 5 years. It’s got a p/e of 72. That’s considered very high.
Apple is up over 350%. P/e ratio is 33.
Google or Alphabet the proper name, is up 170%, with the same p/e ratio is apple of 33.
So these stocks that Bill Gates is rushing out of, you’d have to say he thinks they’re overvalued. It’s not like he’s selling them because he’s desperate for cash. I mean his net worth is over $127 billion, I’m sure he’s got his fair share of cash, but I think Gates is worried about a market crash.
If you look at a lot of stocks in the market their prices are up to crazy levels. I’m sure Bill Gates & his investment manager Michael Larson have been looking at these closely, and as per the latest report, they’ve decided to dramatically trim or exit some of their positions…
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
101
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“This Is A Sign Of A Bubble” (Charlie Munger)
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In this video Charlie Munger points out the different signs of a stock market bubble forming in 2021. But when could a potential pop occur? What investment strategy should we have? Let’s dig further into his opinion in this video…
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Charlie Munger is vice chairman of the biggest investing firm in the world, right hand man Warren Buffett, and truly I believe one of the greatest thinkers of our time.
Now every year, nerdy investors like myself, flock to listen to his annual meeting over at the daily journal corporation. Here people get to ask Charlie basically any question that they want, and to no surprise a lot of people asked about a stock market bubble forming in 2021. Let’s take a bit of a look as to what he said…
(Insert Clip 1)
So, I’m sure that we’re all aware that the market has changed from where it was 3,5,10 years ago. And as Ray Dalio puts it, we’re in the later stages of the bull market. Now what happens here, and what we’re seeing everywhere is the drive towards short-term profits.
A lot of novice investors, particularly those in the market are out to get rich, and get rich quickly. So they look for the stocks, that are most hyped, most talked about, and they place what is called a momentum trade.
You buy a stock, because it’s been going up, you ride the momentum, and then you hope to sell it a couple of months later for a quick profit. And there’s not just a few groups of people doing this, a lot of investors are buying stocks this way. This causes prices to go up and up and up.
And it sounds all well and good, but prices can’t keep going up forever. At some point the direction will change, because as Warren Buffett say’s no stock is worth an infinite value. At some point stock prices have to come back to their intrinsic value.
And this is why Munger thinks this momentum trading is dangerous and a lot of people could get burnt. Just like what happened in the south sea bubble in England back in the 1700’s…
So these are just signs that the market is very high. Signs that the markets in a bubble. But by no means does this mean that we’re definitely going to see the market come down quickly. And the key reason behind this is interest rates…
(Insert Clip 2)
You see for every stock investor, we have 2 key options to put our money. One is in the bank, in treasuries and in bonds. The other option is in stocks.
But the problem that we have today is that interest rates are ridiculously low. As you can see the federal funds rate is around 0.1 pretty much the lowest that it’s every been in history.
So we could have our money in the bank, in treasuries or in bonds, but because rates are so low, we get close to nothing when we have our money here. So that means our leftover cash has to go somewhere and it ends up in stocks.
And this is what Munger is saying here. Yes stock prices are very high right now, but that’s because interest rates are very low. This is the key thing that justifies where stock prices are right now.
And what Munger said in the clip is that he’s obviously not rushing in to buy stock at these prices, but he’s also not going to sell. And that’s because, there’s no other great place to put your money…
And one of the natural things that we’re seeing in this market is people saying that the old school value investment style of buying stocks is dead. It will not work in the future. Even investors like Cathie Wood she’s been warning old school type value investors.
Munger says value investing will never die…
(Insert Clip 3)
Because the true concept of value investing is very simple. You simply pay a price that is below the value of a stock. Aka value investing is all about finding bargains with the price you pay.
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
12
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Bitcoin Cryptocurrency For Beginners 2023
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A beginners guide to investing in bitcoin in 2023
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Bitcoin has been one of the most talked about investments over the past couple of years. It’s made a lot of people rich, but guess what it’s also made quite a few people poor. The reason being is because they’re uneducated about the investment that they’ve made.
And that’s the whole point of this video, I want to give a beginners guide to bitcoin so that you’re actually educated before you choose to make the investment. Or not choose to…
We’re going to go over the 4 key questions related to bitcoin in this video.
1. What Is Bitcoin & What Makes It So Powerful?
2. Is Bitcoin Going To Be The Future Adopted Cryptocurrency?
3. How Do We Go About Investing In Bitcoin?
4. Is Bitcoin Actually A Smart Investment To Make? Can I earn a lot of money here, or am just going to lose it? What’s the story?...
So Bitcoin is the biggest form of cryptocurrency. It’s the most well known and it’s the one that’s been the most adopted.
Now to understand cryptocurrency you first need to understand what money is. Money, is just an agreed upon store of value accepted by everyone as a form of payment.
Money in itself doesn’t actually have any value. Back in the day you could have exchanged money for gold. However today money is not backed by anything. The only thing that makes money valuable is the fact that we’ve all agreed and accepted it as a form of payment.
Now, the problem with money is that first it’s centralized. It’s controlled by the government & the central bank. This means with the dollar or any other currency your entirely at the whim of their choices.
If they choose to constantly print money (which is what they’re doing) and devalue it, you don’t really have a say. Your hard earned money in the bank get’s eaten away by inflation and worth less.
Another problem is if you choose to send money overseas you get hit with exchange fees, and exchange rates. If you choose to make transactions again you’re often hit with more fees. The great thing about a cryptocurrency like bitcoin is it solves all of these problems…
First is it’s not centralized. It’s decentralized. You don’t just have to rely on one central banks ledger of keeping track of everyone’s money, which none of us can see, Bitcoin every computer that participates in the system keeps a copy of the ledger. So it’s basically impossible to take down the system because you’ll have to take down thousands of computers who keep a copy of the ledger.
So it’s safer, everyone can see it (transparent), not one central authority has control over it, and arguably the most important is it’s protected against inflation. With bitcoin there’s only 21 million total coins in the system so you can’t print more and devalue it.
So you look at all of the problems that is associated with currency (fiat money) and cryptocurrency solves all of it. But that brings us on to this question…
Is Bitcoin Going To Be The Future Adopted Cryptocurrency?
What normally happens with a currency or just business in general is one normally rises to the top and takes all of the market share. For example with search engines you don’t know Cuil, AltaVista, Infoseek or AlltheWeb no you only know google.
You don’t use live journal, Friendster, or myspace, you use Facebook.
One thing dominates the entire sector. And that’s most likely what will happen with cryptocurrency. So the question is will bitcoin be the cryptocurrency of the internet, the one that rises to the top?
The answer is that it most likely will be, at least it’s leading the race. This is what Jack Dorsey the CEO of twitter said about it.
"The internet is something that is consensus-driven and is built by everyone, and anyone can change the course of it. Bitcoin has the same patterns, it was built on the internet,".
"I think the internet wants a native currency and I think bitcoin is probably the best manifestation of that so far,".
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
3
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Cathie Wood Speaks On The ‘Stock Market Bubble’
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A lot of investors are concerned that the stock market is in a bubble in 2021. In this video we go over Cathie Woods opinion on whether it is or not.
📚 Chapters 📚
00:00: Is The Stock Market In A Bubble?
03:05: Will Ark’s Strategy Work In This Environment?
05:57: Value Traps
09:56: Concern & A Move To Cash
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Recently in the stock market we’ve seen a trend of investors getting out of stocks and into cash. In-fact there is more cash held in money market funds, than there was in the great financial crisis in 2008. This means one thing that investors are concerned of the stock market being in a bubble.
2008 we had the housing bubble where a lot of people lost a lot of money, 2000 we had the technology bubble again a lot of people lost money, and what investors want to know today, 2021, are we another one of these bubbles? Let’s first see what Cathie Wood has to say on it…
(Insert Clip 1)
So she firmly believes that we are not in a bubble. Unlike the opinions of a lot of other famous investors, she thinks that the market justifies the current price levels.
And the key reason behind this is because of future growth. As she said, the seeds of this growth were planted way back in 2000. That’s where we started developing technology, learning the basics of computers, and phones, and the internet, and building businesses around that.
But as you heard in the clip, she thinks that investors predicted this too early, and that’s why we saw the technology bubble collapse in the year 2000. But now the seeds have grown into something stronger, where you can start building bases for businesses to grow on in the future. She thinks we’re going to be seeing a lot more potential Amazon type growth businesses, over the next 5, 10, 15 years. She thinks because of this type of growth, why the current prices are justified…
But also, you’ve got quite a lot of investors, particularly institutional investors who say Ark invest strategy worked well in during the strong bull market that we’ve had, but they don’t think it’ll work as well in these current market conditions… Cathy strongly disagrees with these investors sentiments…
(Insert Clip 2)
You know if we take a look at some of these big businesses of the past, and by that I mean the ones that have failed, they failed due to what Wood calls creative destruction. Blockbuster used to be a movie and game rental giant back in the day. But you don’t here of them anymore. Why because Netflix innovated so you can watch movies online, straight away, instead of having to go to a store and hire it. Netflix innovated and it left creative destruction of businesses like blockbuster in it’s wake.
Toys R Us. Do you remember how big that was back in the day? Now they’re filing for bankruptcy. Why, because Amazon innovated and now with a few clicks you can buy whatever toy you want.
So the point Wood and I are making is that when innovation comes, destruction is left behind. This is something that people often forget.
And according to Wood’s prediction, she said that 50% of the S & P 500 will be impacted by creative destruction.
Some of these giant companies that have been built on the current system are at risk in the future. Because we all know how quickly the future changes, and if you have big businesses that can’t adapt, well, they’ll melt away.
And this is why Cathie says, all of you who are criticizing my strategy, my think about your own strategy and how will it work in the future? You know are you sure Ford, or Toyota will have a strong business in 15 years, with the rise of EV’s. Are you sure Disney will be strong with the rise of Neflix. Will Intel be strong with Macs new M1 chips been used instead.
These are the questions that regular, institutional investors will need to ask themselves…
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
10
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A Breakdown Of Ray Dalio’s 2021 Portfolio
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Let's take a look at what Ray Dalio's portfolio looks like in 2021.
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Ray Dalio. I’m sure you all know who he is, he’s the founder & manager of the largest hedge fund in the world Bridgewater. Dalio’s one of the most followed investors in modern times & in this video we’re going to reveal his portfolio at Bridgewater. I want to break each investment down piece by piece, tell you a bit about them, and see how his portfolio balances out. Let’s get into it…
Investment 1: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
So the first investment is what’s known as an ETF. An etf is just a group of different stocks bunched together. In this case it’s the S & P 500. The S & P 500 is an index of 500 very large USA companies. These stocks are a good indicator of the entire USA market as a whole.
So straight away Dalio is exposing his portfolio to companies like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, Tesla, Alphabet, Berkshire Hathaway, Johnson & Johnson, those huge American companies.
This is the largest investment of Dalio’s portfolio making up 11.9% of it. He owns $1.38 billion dollars of the S & P 500, straight away allowing for diversification and the lowering of risk…
Investment 2: Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF
Now again his second largest position is an etf, but this is completely different. The vanguard emerging markets etf, instead of holding groups
of large USA companies, they own companies throughout emerging markets. In China, Brazil, Taiwan, and South Africa.
The etfs 10 largest holdings from 1 to 10 are, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, Naspers, Ping Insurance, Reliance Industries, JD.com, China Construction Bank & last is NIO the electric car company.
This ETF makes up 5.7% of Dalios portfolio over at Bridgewater a total value of $659 million dollars. What you’ll notice, right from the start Dalio is diversifying across the globe. His biggest investments are in the USA, but second is those high growth emerging markets around the world…
Investment 3: SPDR Gold Trust
Anyone who has been a Dalio follower for a while will not be surprised by this investment. Dalio likes gold. One of his famous quotes is “If you don't own Gold, you know neither history nor economics.”.
And he’s put his money where his mouth is, the SPDR gold trust makes up his 3rd largest investment, at 4.6% of his portfolio. His total investment is $532 million dollars of Bridgewaters assets…
For any of you guys out there looking to own the SPDR gold trust, the ticker symbol is GLD, the expense ratio for holding this is 0.4% a year, and even I Cooper have owned this investment for some time now…
Investment 4: Walmart
Now we start getting into the individual stocks that Dalio has picked out…
His biggest individual stock position is Walmart, ticker symbol WMT on the nyse exchange. This makes up 3.8% of his portfolio, valued at $443.8 million dollars…
Walmart as we all know it’s the chain of discount department stores, scattered throughout America, Canada, Mexico & a couple of other countries. Altogether they have 11,443 stores, bringing in $548 billion dollars of total revenue, making them the largest company in the world based on that figure.
This stock exposes the portfolio nicely to a steady part of the market, which is retail. Retail, that’s a sector that’s been going on since humans started trading, and it will continue to do so…
The stock currently sells for $132 a share, generating yearly earnings of $4.75. Their dividend is $2.20 per share giving them a nice 1.65% annual dividend return…
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
31
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A Deep Analysis Of Tesla Stock (Including Intrinsic Value)
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A Deep Analysis of Tesla stock in 2021. Is Tesla A Buy? What Is the intrinsic value of Tesla stock? Let’s get to work and answer these vital questions.
📚 Chapters 📚
00:00: Tesla - A Nerd Analysis
00:33: Tesla’s Core Business
02:06: How much is the car side worth?
04:15: Tesla Energy
06:42: Tesla Ride Hailing (Self-Driving) & Tesla Insurance.
09:07: The Numbers
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Tesla. Elon Musk has built this company into one of the biggest businesses in the world. It’s also fair to say, it’s the most popular stock in the entire stock market. The problem with Tesla, is we’re not getting deep, fundamental research on the stock. All we see is short-term news, short-term results & surface level analysis.
What I want to do in this video, because I’m a massive stock nerd, is dive deep into Tesla stock. We’ll break each part of Tesla’s business down and ultimately put an intrinsic value on the stock…
The core to Tesla’s business is their electric cars. We all know this. They have 4 main cars that they sell. The model S, the model 3, the model X & The Model Y. Out of these the Model S, the luxury sedan, was the first to be produced, launched in June 2012. This car was ground breaking at the time and won several awards including becoming the first electric car to top the monthly sales ranking of a country.
The model X was next to be launched in September 2015, the midsize luxury crossover, retailing for a price around $88 thousand dollars.
Then came what I call the ground-breaking car for Tesla, the model 3 sedan. This is ground breaking because it was the car that finally made electric vehicles affordable to the everyday person. The model 3 costs around $35,000.
And this is where you saw tesla really take off as a company. Their sales for model 3 just shot up ever since it was released and as of today
It is by far the most popular selling electric car dominating close to all the first world nations…
Tesla’s most recent car is the model Y, the electric crossover utility vehicle and straight away we’ve seen sales overtake both the model X & the model Y.
So it’s fair to say that the core of Tesla’s business is doing well in terms of growth. In 2020 alone we saw almost 500,000 vehicles produced and delivered, something which many predicted would never happen.
But the question is, how much is this car side of their business worth. That’s a tough one, but let’s try answer it.
So 2020, they delivered 500,000 vehicles. Now that numbers not going to stay at 500,000. Tesla are a high growth company. The CEO, Elon Musk of course, he’s got an ambitious goal of selling 20 million cars by 2030.
Some of you might say that’s not realistic, but he’s achieved many of the things people said he couldn’t in the past. Now let’s assume that the average price of the vehicle sold is around $50k. Obviously the model 3 is less, the model X is more than that, the cybertruck of course will also be much more than that. But on average we’ll say $50k.
So $50k per vehicle times by the forecasted 20 million vehicles sold, is $1 trillion dollars in car sales revenue, by 2030.
We’ll say that by 2030 they can deliver net profit margins of 10% per vehicle. That means in terms of profit / earnings same thing, purely for their car business, they can generate $100 billion per year.
If we times that by the average market price to earnings ratio over time which is 15, it means that the car side of their business alone could be worth $1.5 trillion dollars by 2030.
Now this depends on a range of forecasts and factors, but if all goes well $1.5 trillion dollars, purely based on car sales is possible.
If all goes terribly and let’s say we see an economic collapse, and people can’t afford buying new electric vehicles, well it could be a whole lot less than that…
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
11
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How To Build A Huge Stock Portfolio In 2023
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Growing a portfolio is probably the smartest thing you can do when it comes to your wealth. But the question is how do we do it? In this video we'll give you some tips, tricks as well as examples on how to build a stock portfolio & grow it into something big!
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One of the things that we never got taught in school was how to build a stock portfolio. Oh we got taught that e = mc2, I could tell you the periodic table back to front, but when it comes to investing and picking stocks no one even mentioned it. What I want to do in this video is teach you how to create a stock portfolio & then eventually grow it in to something big.
Obviously the end goal is that our portfolio gets big enough so that we don’t have to work again and we can just use our stock income to cover our expenses. That’s the end goal but` in order to get there, you have to start somewhere., and what you really want to do is start now…
So I’m going to construct a portfolio throughout this video to give you an idea of how to balance it well, with risk, with growth opportunities, and with a range of different investments…
Stock 1: Berkshire Hathaway
Now, the thing that I wanted to say off the bat was don’t just copy these
Investments. Go and do your own research on them. And if you end up liking them, well then of course you can buy them.
So the thing about building a portfolio is that you have to know how to balance it. One of the biggest mistakes I see beginner investors make is they only buy stocks that can 10X, 20X in price.
The thing they don’t realize is these stocks also have a huge amount of risk attached to them. So what they end up doing is building an extremely risky portfolio… You need to balance risk with any portfolio, every seasoned investor will tell you that…
The great thing about buying Berkshire Hathaway stock is straight away you’ve built a strong backbone to your portfolio. And that’s because Berkshire Hathaway is the investing firm run by the greatest investor of all-time Warren Buffett.
So, if you own Berkshire Hathaway the stock you immediately own some of the greatest companies in the world. Apple, Coca-cola, Bank Of America, Geico, Duracell and any other investment that Buffett decides to make.
Basically it’s a hands free way of being an investor in the companies that Warren Buffett decides to invest in.
Buffett for those who don’t know, he’s considered one of the most successful investors in the world. His net worth is US$85.6 billion through smart investing, so he’s not exactly the dumbest investor to back with your own money…
Stock 2: Ark Invest Innovation Fund
Now some of you may argue that Buffett's an older gentlemen and tends to invest in those companies that are more mature in nature. That’s true.
A good way to balance this out is through Ark’s innovation fund. The head investor and founder of this fund is Cathie Wood.
Cathie she invests in disruptive companies. Companies that have the potential to change the way the world works. So she’s made a lot of money from stocks like Tesla, Spotify, Square, those innovative companies…
The mix between her way of investing and Buffett’s is smart to have in a portfolio & a great way of balancing risk, right from the get go…
Stock 3: SoFi
Now another great investor that has really been killing it since he started his fund is someone called Chamath Palihapitiya. He’s achieved a return of 32.9% with his investing fund, and he’s been an early investor in Tesla, Amazon, Square, Bitcoin. & a range of others…
It seems like everything that I’ve seen him bet on, has done well. That’s the reason that I follow him because he’s got proven results…
Anyway one of the stocks that he’s just taken public is a stock called Sofi.
Sofi is one of those companies that is new but has the potential for high growth. Because if you think about it, one of the sectors that has not been overly disrupted is banking. That's what SOFI looks to do!
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
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Grantham: Invest Like This To Prepare For The Next Crash
See My Portfolio & Where Opportunity Is In The Market (Discount): https://theinvestingacademy.teachable.com/p/theinvestingacademy?coupon_code=SALE&product_id=4455382
In this video we go over Jeremy Grantham's strategies for investing in this market. Yes the market may be pricey, but where are the opportunities...?
📚 Chapters 📚
00:00 - Grantham, Preparation Time?
00:25 - Opportunity In Low Growth Stocks
01:53 - Opportunity In Emerging Markets
03:28 - Mature Markets Overvalued
04:57 - Opportunity In ‘Green Stocks’
06:49 - Grantham’s Thoughts On Gold
07:30 - Grantham’s Thoughts On Bitcoin
08:35 - The FED Is Ruining Things For Investors
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Jeremy Grantham, the well esteemed value investor thinks the next market crash will rival the one we had in 1929 and 2000. You can see my previous video to see his full viewpoints on why that’s the case. But arguably an even bigger question is, how do we invest now to prepare for a crash? Are there any opportunities available, or is everything overpriced?
So Grantham thinks that in todays market the opportunity is in the low growth stocks, or the value stocks that you’d traditionally call them.
The technology, the ai, the so called 10X stocks, those are high growth, but very pricey. The stable low growth stocks, these are the ones that he thinks offer better deals.
Grantham said… “I suspect selling everything would work out just fine, however having said that there are major discrepancies as there were in 2000, between the US tech and everything else. So the low growth stocks are about as cheap relative to the high growth stocks as they ever get, so they will not have the same pain. But they are still at risk to some degree I suspect”.
What he’s saying is, when the crash comes, the ones that are going to get wiped out the most will be the high growth stocks. The so called 10X ones that have just shot up in price. The likes of Tesla, Nio, Zomedica etc. Because these are the ones that sell at high prices compared to what they bring in, in terms of profit. When consumer and investor confidence decreases, these stocks that have gone up so high, have the most to lose.
So value stocks, that’s where Grantham see’s opportunity in today’s market, note that down. The other opportunity that Grantham see’s is in emerging markets. He said “The good news is that overseas, they have not had this same huge bull market and the same overpricing that we have had. And that of course is a heaven-sent opportunity. Because you can go into the emerging markets and they are absolutely not that expensive and compared to the S & P they’re about as cheap as they’ve ever been. They’ve been this cheap 2 or 3 times and each time it’s worked out very well. So you can buy emerging markets and you can look at the intersection between those two ideas. Which is the low growth stocks within the emerging markets, and they are handsomely priced, you should be able to make a really decent 10, 20 year return there”.
So that’s interesting when Grantham looks at the more mature markets, especially the USA, he sees low long-term returns. The emerging markets however, that’s where he sees some real potential.
For those who don’t know, examples of emerging markets include India, Mexico, Russia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, China, Brazil. These are economies that are as per the word, emerging, they’re not fully developed, but they’re in that stage of developing and growing in terms of business.
Now the interesting thing about these types of markets, is that investors often shy away from them, even though they’re growing strongly.
Everyone wants to invest in the likes of the USA, or Canada, or the U.K, because things have been established there. But the problem with this is it elevates prices to very high levels. This is what Grantham said on the USA as a market…
“You will not make a handsome 10 or 20 year return in U.S growth stocks.
There is in the air a simple arithmetic, the higher you bid up a price of an asset, the lower the long-term return you will get. There is nothing you can do to change that equation. Every day the market goes higher, you know only one thing with certainty, that the long-term return will be less than it was the day before”.
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___
DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser. * Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links. This means at no additional cost to you, we earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe. This has no impact on my opinions, facts or style of video.
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