As I SEA It

29:08

Building Wealth: Your Money & The 4 Year Election Cycle

In this podcast conversation, I discuss the distinct market characteristics that occur in each year of the US election cycle. I emphasize that while politics alone doesn't drive markets, the political seasonality provides a backdrop that can impact investor perception and response to other market factors. I start by explaining the three possible political outcomes in a presidential election year: a clean sweep by one party, a divided government with one party controlling the presidency and the other controlling Congress, or a president of one party with a two out of three win in Congress. I acknowledge that geopolitical and domestic issues can vary widely from one cycle to the next, but the economy is always a major issue in presidential election years. I then delve into the historical trends in each year of the election cycle, using the S&P 500 stock index as a measuring stick. I note that the first year, when a newly elected or re-elected president takes office, has historically produced an average annual total return of 18.6%. The second year, the midterm election year, has a lower average total return of 6.1% due to voter disappointment and legislative gridlock. The third year, the gridlock year, has consistently produced excellent average returns of 18.5% with no negative returns since 1980. The fourth year, the presidential election year, has an average total return of 8.8% and is the second weakest market year in the cycle. I also analyze the market performance based on the three possible election outcomes. When the GOP sweeps, the market does best with an average annualized gain of 11.9%. When the Democrats sweep, the annualized return is 8%. In gridlock scenarios, the GOP still fares better with an average annualized return of 10.7% compared to the Democrats' 6.1%. Interestingly, when a Republican is elected president, the annualized return is 20.3%, while a Democrat's election results in a better return of 9.9%. I conclude by discussing the potential impact of the election on various sectors. For financials, a GOP win could lead to relaxed financial regulations and a positive backdrop for financial services consolidation. A Democratic win could result in higher corporate tax rates and more regulatory oversight. In the healthcare sector, a Democratic win might lead to a strengthening of the Affordable Care Act and controls on drug pricing. In the energy sector, a GOP win could mean increased domestic oil, natural gas, and coal production, while a Democratic win could result in more regulation and taxes on oil and gas companies. In the information technology sector, a GOP win could lead to intensified antitrust efforts and restrictions on HB1 work visas, while a Democratic win could result in expansion of the Chips Act and increased foreign trade. I acknowledge that there are always wild cards in every election that cannot be anticipated, but I provide insights based on historical trends and possible outcomes. I emphasize the value of being a long-term investor and caution against making investment decisions solely based on political factors. For more exclusive content, join me at DeGreen.com!

6 months ago 18 views

29:08

Building Wealth Series - Ep. 3 - Investing & The 4 Year Election Cycle

In this podcast conversation, I discuss the distinct market characteristics that occur in each year of the US election cycle. I emphasize that while politics alone doesn't drive markets, the political seasonality provides a backdrop that can impact investor perception and response to other market factors. I start by explaining the three possible political outcomes in a presidential election year: a clean sweep by one party, a divided government with one party controlling the presidency and the other controlling Congress, or a president of one party with a two out of three win in Congress. I acknowledge that geopolitical and domestic issues can vary widely from one cycle to the next, but the economy is always a major issue in presidential election years. I then delve into the historical trends in each year of the election cycle, using the S&P 500 stock index as a measuring stick. I note that the first year, when a newly elected or re-elected president takes office, has historically produced an average annual total return of 18.6%. The second year, the midterm election year, has a lower average total return of 6.1% due to voter disappointment and legislative gridlock. The third year, the gridlock year, has consistently produced excellent average returns of 18.5% with no negative returns since 1980. The fourth year, the presidential election year, has an average total return of 8.8% and is the second weakest market year in the cycle. I also analyze the market performance based on the three possible election outcomes. When the GOP sweeps, the market does best with an average annualized gain of 11.9%. When the Democrats sweep, the annualized return is 8%. In gridlock scenarios, the GOP still fares better with an average annualized return of 10.7% compared to the Democrats' 6.1%. Interestingly, when a Republican is elected president, the annualized return is 20.3%, while a Democrat's election results in a better return of 9.9%. I conclude by discussing the potential impact of the election on various sectors. For financials, a GOP win could lead to relaxed financial regulations and a positive backdrop for financial services consolidation. A Democratic win could result in higher corporate tax rates and more regulatory oversight. In the healthcare sector, a Democratic win might lead to a strengthening of the Affordable Care Act and controls on drug pricing. In the energy sector, a GOP win could mean increased domestic oil, natural gas, and coal production, while a Democratic win could result in more regulation and taxes on oil and gas companies. In the information technology sector, a GOP win could lead to intensified antitrust efforts and restrictions on HB1 work visas, while a Democratic win could result in expansion of the Chips Act and increased foreign trade. I acknowledge that there are always wild cards in every election that cannot be anticipated, but I provide insights based on historical trends and possible outcomes. I emphasize the value of being a long-term investor and caution against making investment decisions solely based on political factors. For more exclusive content, join me at DeGreen.com!

6 months ago 14 views

21:53

Boomers Unite

In this edition of "As I SEA It," I discuss the topic of us baby boomers. I share statistics on the disposable income and spending habits of boomers, emphasizing their status as the richest group of consumers in the world. I also address the misconception that boomers are just sitting at home watching TV, pointing out that they are active consumers who spend money on various goods and services. I mention the significant transfer of wealth that boomers are expected to leave to their millennial children and the potential impact on the economy. Our conversation delves into the financial aspects of boomers' lives, including their net worth, home ownership, and spending habits. I highlight the amount of money boomers spend on consumer goods, leisure travel, housing, dining out, gym memberships, electronics, supplements, and healthcare. I then transition to the topic of boomers' political influence. I discuss the high percentage of boomers who vote, and the shifts in the age demographics of registered voters. I acknowledge the tendency of older people to lean towards the Republican party but caution against making generalizations about boomers' political affiliations. Our conversation concludes with a focus on Social Security and the challenges it poses. I discuss the cost of living adjustments, the maximum benefit amounts, and the issue of means testing. I highlight the importance of savings and investments in retirement planning and express skepticism towards means testing for Social Security. Overall, I present a comprehensive overview of the baby boomer generation, covering their demographics, wealth, spending habits, political influence, and concerns about Social Security.

6 months ago 15 views

21:53

Patriots V.S. Paternalists: Censors, Cars, and Conceit

In this edition of "As I SEA It," I discuss the ongoing battle between patriots and paternalists in society. I define a paternalist as someone who believes they are uniquely qualified to dictate someone else's behavior and has the capacity to mandate that behavior. I argue that our world is filled with paternalists, especially in government. I believe that these ideologues are paternalistic because they think they can dictate behavior based on their ideology, rather than their qualifications. I share three stories to illustrate this point. The first story involves the suppression of free speech on social media platforms during the COVID-19 pandemic. I highlight a recent decision by the fifth Circuit Court of Appeals in Missouri versus Biden, which defined the constitutional limits of coordination between the government and private actors. The court found that government officials crossed the First Amendment line by coercing platforms with threats of antitrust action and legal liability for user content. I applaud the court's decision and praise the Patriots who stood up against the paternalists suppressing free speech. The second story focuses on California's attempts to ban internal combustion engines and mandate electric vehicles. I argue that California's mandates have national economic implications and that Congress needs to step in to protect consumers from increased costs. I spotlight a bill in the House of Representatives that aims to override EPA waivers and prevent California and other states from limiting the sale or use of internal combustion engines. I criticize the Supreme Court for not upholding the Constitution's dormant commerce clause against state regulations that negatively impact other states. The final story revolves around parental rights in Virginia. I discuss the case of a father who protested against his daughter's sexual assault and the school's attempt to hide it. Governor Glenn Youngkin recently pardoned the father, recognizing the severe miscarriage of justice. I stress the importance of parental rights and the urgent need for reform in Virginia's education system. I urge listeners to support the Patriots in Virginia and throughout the nation to counteract the paternalists. In conclusion, I contend that ideological paternalists are a threat to our freedoms, and it's up to patriots to defend individual rights and curtail the influence of overreaching government officials.

6 months ago 3 views

31:42

Keith's Overnight Solo Sail Aboard "Relentless"

Ahoy, adventurers! Dive into my FIRST ever solo voyage aboard the "Relentless" as I set sail from the picturesque Ensenada. This isn't just a journey—it's a tale of excitement, challenges, and pure maritime magic. From the mesmerizing coastlines to the mysterious islands and guiding lighthouses, every moment was a new discovery. Experience the thrill of night sailing under a canopy of stars, the coziness of my boat life, and even the unexpected twists (like a rebellious water maker!). As I navigate through changing weather patterns, pass by commercial ports, and make crucial decisions on the fly, you'll get a front-row seat to the highs and lows of solo sailing. Whether I'm marveling at the beauty of the sea or troubleshooting on the go, this adventure was a testament to the sheer joy and resilience of sailing alone. Come aboard, feel the wind in your hair, and embark on this unforgettable journey with me!

6 months ago 7 views

1:00

California is pushing for more electric vehicles! They want 100% EVs by 2035! #electricvehicle

From Ep. 18 "Censors, Cars, and Conceit". Watch it now on DeGreen.com! #patriots#cars#conceit#california#parents#parentsrights#greenenergy#paternalist#democracy#government#censorship #EnvironmentalProtectionAgency #CleanEnergy #ClimateChange #Sustainability #ElectricVehicles #ZeroEmission

7 months ago 2 views

1:00

US House of Representatives' vote on California's internal combustion engine ban!

From Ep. 18 "Censors, Cars, and Conceit". Watch it now on DeGreen.com! #patriots#cars#conceit#california#parents#parentsrights#greenenergy#paternalist#democracy#government#censorship #CleanAirAct #California #ClimatePolicies #GreenhouseGasEmissions #InternalCombustionEngines

7 months ago 2 views

My take on how I view paternalism! Discover how our world is filled with paternalists.

1:00

5th Circuit Court of Appeals sided with patriots suing govt officials for suppressing free speech.

From Ep. 18 "Censors, Cars, and Conceit". Watch it now on DeGreen.com! #patriots#cars#conceit#california#parents#parentsrights#greenenergy#paternalist#democracy#government#censorship #FreeSpeech #ConstitutionalRights #FifthCircuitCourt #SupremeCourt #SocialMediaCollusion

7 months ago 5 views