Stock Trader Advisory

Despite trading volume being light as is usual for the holiday-shortened week, enough follow-on buyers participated to continue raising prices across the broad market. Investors anticipating a historically typical year-end rally are basically causing one by piling into stocks that began to show signs of a rally three weeks ago. Nice to see more “green” (highlights) among our stocks. Many new weekly highs as long positions take flight, while more of our short positions continue to reverse into longs, and remaining short position gains shrink some. There are still many stock market forecasters expecting a big decline on the basis of many troubles about to manifest (more bank failures, commercial real estate defaults, and lack of consumer spending) but for now, at least, institutions are buyers as they seek to improve their performance by end of year.

Performance for our Level 1 Newsletter (20 of the top 60 performing stocks) 12 new weekly highs among long positions. 11 stocks with double-digit % long gains: FLL +11 NTCO +20 RCMT +87 AMTX +115 FMS +15 PUMP +105 GDYN +11 GRFS +13 INBX +11 INVE +13 LEGH +18 No new weekly low among short positions. No stocks with double-digit % short gains. We follow the smart money, institutional investors. Subscribe and get your first month free at www.stocktraderadvisory.com

Wide-spread follow-through buying after the prior week rally did not occur. In a few instances it did, raising a stock price here and there, but most stocks immediately slumped again. Whatever data caused buyers to snap up stocks the prior week was not enough to persuade more buyers to act this week. Many headwinds for stocks remain in place, and there remains a concern that the Fed may still raise rates at least one more time. This despite a dismal Treasury auction of 30 year bonds, signaling no one wants to lock in current rates for the long term. Still a great amount of pessimism and resignation among institutional investors. Huge amounts of capital remains in idle cash as many investors remain absent from the stock market altogether – creating extremely difficult low-volume conditions for us in which to harness any profits. Our long positions - both recent and old - remain under tremendous pressure, and shorts last week were mostly neutral. Highlights remain few. Next week will provide more clarity as to whether the prior week rally was a legitimate buying opportunity or just another in a series of pre-mature failed efforts.

Performance for our Level 1 Newsletter (20 of the top 60 performing stocks) 6 new weekly highs among long positions. Big rise in LEGH and RCMT. 5 stocks with double-digit % long gains: LEGH + 15 RCMT +78 AMTX +102 VERV +19 PUMP +103 1 new weekly low among short positions. No stocks with double-digit % short gains. We follow the smart money, institutional investors. Subscribe and get your first month free at www.stocktraderadvisory.com

An abrupt reversal in stocks, with sudden buying interest after weeks of overtly pessimistic selling. The catalysts for the turn-around began with the Fed NOT raising rates and signaling that maybe no more rate increases are necessary. They cited economic contraction and rising unemployment as signs the rate increases to date were beginning to have the desired effect on combating inflation. Treasury yields declined in response, giving investors more reason to take a look at stocks again. It’s also possible some computer-driven trading programs sensed stocks prices were so low as to finally be at technical buy levels. Interesting that buying interest remained intact all five days of the week, unlike previous weeks where some sporadic daily buying was ultimately negated by selling days. Our gains in short positions generally diminished, while longs – particularly in Level 1 – recovered to shrink losses. Seeing many short – to – long reversal signals this week, though not all stocks just yet. This may be the start of a typical end-of-year rally. While it may also be just another in a series of rally attempts that quickly fade, the breadth of the stocks participating in price gains suggests this rally has the support of many institutional investors, a positive sign.

Performance for our Level 1 Newsletter (20 of the top 60 performing stocks) 3 new weekly highs among long positions. Big rise in AMTX and VERV. 5 stocks with double-digit % long gains: EXPI +14 RCMT +41 AMTX +117 VERV +18 r PUMP +127 No new weekly low among short positions. No stocks with double-digit % short gains. We follow the smart money, institutional investors. Subscribe and get your first month free at www.stocktraderadvisory.com

A brutal week for stocks. A growing number of investors gave up on the market entirely and sold at exceptionally low prices. The sense is that a long recession in on the way resulting from the Fed’s raising of rates and intention of holding them high for a long period of time. The fact that inflation remains intact in spite of raises-to-date is alarming. Add to this the collapse of the market for Treasury issues, also due to high rates, and investors are just unwilling to participate in either the bond or stock markets. Now that the 7 mega-stocks did decline last week, the stock indexes are now in “correction” territory, even though the other 493 S&P500 stocks were already deeply depressed. These favorite stocks of investors hit new 52-week lows Friday: American Airlines, Bank of America, Best Buy, Clorox, Chevron, Delta, EBay, Ford, Home Depot, Goldman Sachs, General Motors, Hasbro, Johnson & Johnson, Medtronics, Phillip Morris, Southwest Airlines, UPS, Whirlpool and even Moderna and Pfizer, to name but a few. Our shorts remain the source of our profits. Level 1, regrettably, remains light on shorts, so continues to under-perform Levels 2 and 3. At some point investors will see prices so low as to be irresistible “bargains” and buy these stocks back, triggering a market rally. Perhaps after Friday’s sell-off that will be soon, but will it be too early? In light of the economy getting worse (don’t be fooled by the surprisingly good and preliminary 3Q GDP figure that is bound to be revised downward later as has been most data during this administration) that may be the case. Conditions remain the most challenging for trading in over a decade.

Performance for our Level 1 Newsletter (20 of the top 60 performing stocks) No new weekly high among long positions. 5 stocks with double-digit % long gains: AU +10 RCMT +40 AMTX +93 EXPI +16 PUMP +133 1 new weekly low among short positions. No stocks with double-digit % short gains. We follow the smart money, institutional investors. Subscribe and get your first month free at www.stocktraderadvisory.com

Another down week for stock prices. Growing pessimism among investors is causing the number of sellers to increase, but with few interested buyers, those sellers are getting very low prices on their sales, driving just about all prices down dramatically. Many investors are bailing simply because they cannot make sense of this stock market. Stocks are falling as though a terrible recession in coming. But home prices are rising as though there is no recession coming. Bond prices keep falling as though the Fed is going to further raise interest rates. Gold is pricing as though rates are going to fall. Oil stocks are rising as though there will be a war. The mega-stocks remain firm as though all is well. Employment data shows good employment, but credit card debt is at highs and auto loan delinquencies are rising rapidly. The housing market is paralyzed. Nothing makes sense. In light of this, is appears investors are choosing to abandon the stock market for the safety of Treasury securities that guarantee a return that is now above +5%. As a result of declining prices, our many short positions in Level 2 and 3 remain the source of our big gains. Level 1, regrettably, is light on these, and has also been the subject of most of our analytic shortcomings – this double-whammy producing a big under-performance for Level 1. For all the speculation of a “possible economic recession coming”, the fact is a recession in stock prices is already here – with the Fed perfectly content to kill the stock market with sustained high rates. Many stocks are already at or near new yearly lows or 52-week lows, other than the few mega-stocks that are skewing the indexes to make the market look much healthier than it is. While the P/E ratio of the S&P493 is about 20, the P/E ratio of the 7 mega-stocks is a ridiculously high - and unsustainable - 46. When these 7 stocks that are carrying the indexes suddenly report earnings shortfalls, look out below!

Performance for our Level 1 Newsletter (20 of the top 60 performing stocks) No new weekly high among long positions. 4 stocks with double-digit % long gains: AU +11 RCMT +36 AMTX +108 PUMP +137 1 new weekly low among short positions. No stocks with double-digit % short gains. We follow the smart money, institutional investors. Subscribe and get your first month free at www.stocktraderadvisory.com

October began by mimicking September’s downward price bias, until a Friday rally reversed prices upward. The same concerns of “interest rates higher for longer” producing a prolonged recession has had investors looking elsewhere for gains, notably fixed income products rather than stocks. However, the positive (?) Friday employment report gave some investors a reason to pick up some beaten-down stocks in the belief they have been oversold. So the week ended on an up note and may set up another FOMO situation next week as investors on the sidelines fear missing out on a potential 4Q rally. Of note, however, is that a deeper reading of the employment report which triggered the rally shows U.S. employment not nearly as rosy as the Friday figures would suggest. The “surprisingly large” gains were all part-time jobs, while full-time jobs actually fell. Many of the job gains were in the government sector, meaning non-producer-type jobs, for which the federal budget is enlarging; these jobs will have to be supported by tax dollars – not a recipe for economic growth. Also, those looking for work dropped significantly, so the “unemployment rate” calculation is greatly skewed, making it look far lower than actual conditions. Whether investors understand the true, shrinking employment situation, and how much the breaking terrorism in the Middle East will carry over to the markets next week remains to be seen. In the meantime, the market closed the week on an updraft. Most of our gains continue to be found in our short positions. Some of our longs recovered on Friday.

Performance for our Level 1 Newsletter (20 of the top 60 performing stocks) 1 new weekly high among long positions. 6 stocks with double-digit % long gains: EXPI +19 INVE +28 RCMT +41 AMTX +85 PUMP +107 GDYN +10 1 new weekly low among short positions. No stocks with double-digit % short gains. We follow the smart money, institutional investors. Subscribe and get your first month free at www.stocktraderadvisory.com

September again proved why it is historically the worst month for stocks. With Treasury offerings now guaranteeing a rate of 4.5% or better, without market risk, many investors are exiting stocks and moving their money to them and settling for this rate of return. Add in many other investors who are temporarily comfortable holding cash, and there just is not much investor appetite for stocks. But there is some. Analytics are seeing more buy or buy soon signals among our watchlist stocks than sell signals. The “smart money” may be positioning themselves for a potential rally after the dismal September decline. And quite a decline it has been – many stocks at or near 52 week lows, which as usual is being masked by the positively-skewed major indexes. Our stocks were mixed – longs mostly declining slightly, but not all, and shorts mostly declining. Let’s see if the analytics are right as to hinting at a price recovery soon – it would certainly improve returns in Level 1 which has under-performed owing to mostly slumping long positions.

Performance for our Level 1 Newsletter (20 of the top 60 performing stocks) No new weekly high among long positions. 6 stocks with double-digit % long gains: ROIV +15 EXPI +31 RCMT +40 AMTX +86 INVE +32 PUMP +136 1 new weekly low among short positions. No stocks with double-digit % short gains. We follow the smart money, institutional investors. Subscribe and get your first month free at www.stocktraderadvisory.com

Another lethargic week with almost all stocks down materially on growing investor pessimism. News continues to be negative: rising prices for fuel, food, utilities, and enlarging strike against auto makers. What little interest investors had in stocks was snuffed out completely by the Fed’s comments that rates will certainly remain higher for longer, with no plans for any reduction in all of 2024. That caused a sell-off in the mega-stocks, such that the indexes finally fell significantly – although the other “S&P495” stocks have already been in free-fall for weeks. With yields on treasury bonds and notes now in the +5% range, and rates on CD’s in the +4% range, many retail investors who have historically been complacent to earn 8% in stocks are settling for these alternate returns because they don’t want the market risk. They have basically given up on stocks for the near future. Our short positions continue to provide some gains, while longs continue to get clobbered (harming Level 1 performance the most). With no buyers for stocks, and most stocks already at or near 52 week lows, there is little on the horizon to suggest stocks will move much in price either way. Very difficult conditions in which to profit, even for those of us who trade in both directions. The stock market is just not giving us much in return right now, much like in the first half of the year. Patience is key.

Performance for our Level 1 Newsletter (20 of the top 60 performing stocks) 1 new weekly high among long positions. 5 stocks with double-digit % long gains: EXPI +34 RCMT +44 AMTX +90 INVE +35 PUMP +124 No new weekly lows among short positions. No stocks with double-digit % short gains. We follow the smart money, institutional investors. Subscribe and get your first month free at www.stocktraderadvisory.com

A repeat of the prior week - lethargic intra-week trading action finished off by a significant Friday sell - off. Friday’s action was induced by some new concerns – airlines posting declining earnings on fewer passengers and higher fuel prices, and a pending strike against many auto manufacturers which will hurt them. This in addition to the other concerns about real estate values declining and the Fed keeping rates high for a longer period as inflation remains entrenched at levels above the Fed’s preference. Friday’s action also included quarterly expiration of options and futures contracts, always a volatile day. Many stocks, ours included, declined again. For all the concerns of a “potential market correction” to come soon, in reality about 50% of our watchlist stocks are already at or near yearly lows – there is not much further they can fall. For many companies, they have been suffering a recession in stock price for many months. Most investors are not aware because the rigged major indexes do not reflect this. Interestingly, there are more BUY signals than SELL SHORT signals among our watchlist stocks for next week. Perhaps there is some information that institutional investors are aware of that makes them bullish on stocks going forward from these low prices. Next week is a Fed rate decision – expectations are for no increase. Any increase would “surprise” investors and result in more sell-off.

Performance for our Level 1 Newsletter (20 of the top 60 performing stocks) 2 new weekly highs among long positions. 7 stocks with double-digit % long gains: INBX +13 INVE +29 EXPI +41 AMTX +126 ROIV +11 RCMT +40 PUMP +133 No new weekly lows among short positions. No stocks with double-digit % short gains. We follow the smart money, institutional investors. Subscribe and get your first month free at www.stocktraderadvisory.com

The fall season did begin in earnest, with trading volume increasing as investors focused on trying to increase their gains in the remaining third of the year. Price bias was slightly positive as a result. The week did end on a sour note though, as unemployment rose significantly, as the effect of rising interest rates on corporations is beginning to manifest. In addition, prior month employment figures were revised downward AGAIN – which has become a pattern all year with the Biden administration. Employment data, when initially released, has simply become unbelievable because it is being purposefully over-stated to make the economy seem better than it actually is. The economic collapse and attendant stock market decline that some analysts are forecasting has not taken hold yet. Concerns remain, however, over the possibility of more Fed rate hikes, commercial real estate defaults, the added burden of student loan debt payments being resumed, steady inflation and declining corporate earnings. Our stocks were mostly neutral on the week, many with very little price movement, both longs and shorts. September historically produces very big moves in the indexes, so we expect more dynamic price moves ay time now.

Performance for our Level 1 Newsletter (20 of the top 60 performing stocks) 3 new weekly highs among long positions. Big rise in INBX. 8 stocks with double-digit % long gains: CHRS +10 INBX +22 RCMT +48 EXPI +54 AMTX +118 ROIV +15 INVE +28 PUMP +123 No new weekly lows among short positions. 1 stock with double-digit % short gain: VTNR +45 We follow the smart money, institutional investors. Subscribe and get your first month free at www.stocktraderadvisory.com

A neutral week when all was said and done. Light late-summer volume once again, and offsetting economic data that didn’t move prices much. Most stocks saw downward price action, contrary to the major indexes, which were only up because the few mega-stocks that dominate and corrupt the indexes were up. Our stocks were mostly neutral with very slight price movement, very few trades and few highlights. Gainers were generally limited to our short positions – again – which continued downward. September means investors all back from summer recess, so trading volume picks up as they recommit themselves to more aggressively searching for gains before the year comes to an end. Look for more movement in prices, which is much desired after the typical August doldrums we have witnessed.

Performance for our Level 1 Newsletter (20 of the top 60 performing stocks) 1 new weekly highs among long positions. 7 stocks with double-digit % long gains: LE +17 INVE +35 RCMT +44 EXPI +57 AMTX +123 ROIV +10 PUMP +116 2 new weekly lows among short positions. 1 stock with double-digit % short gain: VTNR +50 We follow the smart money, institutional investors. Subscribe and get your first month free at www.stocktraderadvisory.com

The selling mindset continued for a third week, with more amateur investors spooked by the previous week’s selling. With trading volume very light as is usual in late summer, these sellers had a hard time finding anyone around to take the buy side of their sell order, so had to settle for significantly lower prices. Terrible timing on their part (as usual), just made losses worse. Of course those institutional investors - and us – holding our positions suffered significant giveback all week as a result. Very few stocks advanced on the week and many of the declines were equivalent to 6 – 8 weeks of prior price gains. Just a really ugly week. The bright spot was our short positions, which mostly improved. News was negligible and neutral, with a soft landing still anticipated by many (good news) but which may keep the Fed on course for higher interest rates for longer to battle stubborn inflation (bad news). Technical analysts see the market currently over-sold on the weak volume, so we may see a rise in prices next week.

Performance for our Level 1 Newsletter (20 of the top 60 performing stocks) No new weekly highs among long positions. 6 stocks with double-digit % long gains: INVE +29 RCMT +42 EXPI +57 AMTX +134 LE +22 PUMP +122 1 new weekly low among short positions. 1 stock with double-digit % short gain: VTNR +43 We follow the smart money, institutional investors. Subscribe and get your first month free at www.stocktraderadvisory.com

A choppy week as investors with very divergent opinions battled each other daily. One group anticipates a severe recession looms on collapse of real estate values, thus they are selling stocks now, while the other group of investors assumes a “soft landing” for the economy based on stable corporate earnings and no more Fed rate increases, thus they are buying stocks now. The net effect of these competing sentiments was choppy prices and slight price declines for most stocks on the week, including many of ours, with our others generally neutral. Don’t be fooled by the highly-rigged S&P500 Index (and DowJones Industrials Index) finishing at new highs, suggesting the broad market return so far this year is +17%. The 7 mega-stocks in the S&P500 Index have such an over-sized influence on the index that without them the year-to-date return of the “S&P453” is only +4% (that return is available in a money market account or CD with no market risk). The average investor is barely profitable, and after factoring in inflation is unprofitable through 29 weeks. Next week could move stock prices more than usual, owing to much information set for release – consumer confidence, homes sales, Fed rate decision, GDP data, inflation data, and many corporate earnings reports from companies in the S&P500. Meanwhile, we absorb this market choppiness and await the emergence of the next sustained trend of price movement, in either direction. Very few trades currently.