Stock Trader Weekly Results | July 25th, 2023
Performance for our Level 1 Newsletter (20 of the top 60 performing stocks)
3 new weekly highs among long positions. 10 stocks with double-digit % long gains:
LE +10
AU +29
INBX +36
EXPI +78
PUMP +118
AMTX +233
RMNI +13
INVE +29
RCMT +36
RYAM +11
No new weekly low among short positions. 1 stock with double-digit % short gain:
VTNR +21
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Stock Trader Weekly Results | July 18th, 2023
Performance for our Level 1 Newsletter (20 of the top 60 performing stocks)
6 new weekly highs among long positions. Big rise in AU and EXPI. 11 stocks with double-digit % long gains:
DDD +17
AU +28
INBX +31
RCMT +40
EXPI +95
PUMP +105
AMTX +223
LE +10
INVE +31
RMNI +17
ROIV +15
No new weekly low among short positions. 1 stock with double-digit % short gain:
VTNR +23
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Stock Market Recap | July 18th, 2023
The prior week’s Friday rally on tame employment data (“good” – for the economy, but not “too good” – as to trigger more interest rate increases) continued as prices rose modestly throughout the week. The only hiccup was some profit-taking on Friday by the same nervous investors afraid that a big recession is just around the corner.
Investors remain in two camps: a) those who see inflation declining, allowing the Fed to discontinue rate increases and thus avoid a severe recession, and b) those who still expect a commercial real estate collapse that will lead to widespread unemployment and severe recession.
Right now, the former sentiment is prevailing, and will until – and if – economic data warning signs emerge. Friday’s selling was not due to any such warning signs, just profit-taking by the usual amateur investors who lack conviction, not the institutions.
Many of our positions extended long gains, though modestly. Shorts were mostly neutral. Because institutions were not among the sellers, very few trades again this week.
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Stock Market Recap | July 10th, 2023
A choppy week for stock prices that revolved around investor reaction to employment reports. In the end, a net down week for prices although a Friday rally lessened the declines.
Downward movement really took off on Thursday when a popular private employment report suggested massive employment gains in May. This led investors to conclude the Fed would react to this information with many more significant interest rate increases this year - causing a huge recession – so widespread selling of stocks commenced.
However, Friday’s official employment report was much more modest, suggesting only reasonable employment gains that would not be that inflationary. So, investors got right back into stocks at reduced prices from Thursday’s sell-off. This caused stocks to recover some of their Thursday decline, but not fully.
Most of our stocks were decliners on the week, for another “giveback” week. But as we’ve seen previously, institutions were not among the panic sellers for the week, so there are few trades for us this weekend.
We seem to have returned, at least temporarily, to the choppy, trendless up-down-up-down weeks seen in the first quarter of the year. Make for very unproductive trading.
All employment reports are suspect when it comes to accuracy, so remains to be seen what the actual activity is – we just know investors are very tuned in and may react dramatically when numbers suggest big gains or losses. This is bound to keep the otherwise dull summer stock trading months interesting.
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Stock Trader Weekly Results | July 10th, 2023
Performance for our Level 1 Newsletter (20 of the top 60 performing stocks)
5 new weekly highs among long positions. Big rise in PUMP. 10 stocks with double-digit % long gains:
AU +15
INBX +24
RCMT +36
EXPI +56
PUMP +102
AMTX +239
DDD +11
INVE +29
ELA +12
RMNI +11
No new weekly low among short positions. 1 stock with double-digit % short gain:
VTNR +21
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Stock Market Recap | July 3rd, 2023
Stocks rallied off of the prior week’s decline, proving once again that amateur investors who took profits at lower prices the prior week were wrong to do so (again).
Amateur investors are notoriously bad at market timing, because they either lack a consistent trading strategy altogether, or follow a strategy that works so infrequently that they do not have a profit-making edge, in which case they fall back on emotional decision-making, which is certain to produce poor results.
The week saw mostly good news – earnings, manufacturing activity, housing starts, etc., that for the moment offset concerns about an impending commercial real estate collapse. Investors for now are cautiously optimistic that the economy might avoid a calamitous recession.
We were correct to hold our long positions, as our analytics had suggested, as many of our long gains increased. Short positions were mixed.
The second quarter of 2023 has proved to be a profitable period for us as stock prices finally moved in a consistent direction for weeks at a time (mostly upward) after a lackluster first quarter in which prices were choppy and/or stagnant. Would be nice to see more of this price movement consistency continue throughout the summer.
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Stock Trader Weekly Results | July 3rd, 2023
Performance for our Level 1 Newsletter (20 of the top 60 performing stocks)
5 new weekly highs among long positions. Big rise in AMTX, DDD, FREY and INVE. 9 stocks with double-digit % long gains:
DDD +15
AU +21
INVE +32
INBX +40
EXPI +64
PUMP +83
AMTX +228
RMNI +10
RCMT +32
No new weekly low among short positions. 1 stock with double-digit % short gain:
VTNR +23
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Stock Trader Weekly Results | June 27th, 2023
Performance for our Level 1 Newsletter (20 of the top 60 performing stocks)
3 new weekly highs among long positions. Big rise in ASTS. 9 stocks with double-digit % long gains:
FAT +13
AU +29
EXPI +49
ASTS +60
AMTX +151
INVE +12
RCMT +28
INBX +41
PUMP +67
1
new weekly low among short positions. 1 stock with double-digit % short gain:
VTNR +32
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Stock Market Recap | June 27th, 2023
The recent rally ground to a halt as “nervous Nelly” amateur investors took profits, which is typical of them. Most stocks declined on the week.
Analytics suggest the pullback in stock prices is not reason for selling long positions now, just a pause.
For us it was one of those “giveback” weeks.
There are concerns that manufacturing is declining globally, and many other countries did raise their interest rates again, but institutions did not appear to be among the sellers.
A generally forgettable week to move on from.
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Stock Market Recap | June 12th, 2023
Even more investors became buyers (“FOMO” reaction?) of more stocks than just the popular few mega-stocks, driving prices and the major indexes higher again. Amazing the gains that can materialize quickly when stocks are “bought low” and then a price uptrend holds steady for at least 4 – 8 weeks.
As a result, most of our long positions continue to either increase gains or at least reduce losses, while our fewer shorts remain productive as well. Good to finally see more “green” highlights occurring among our stocklist.
Buying interest continues to be driven by resilient corporate earnings that so far suggest perhaps a “soft landing” rather than deep recession.
There still remain many concerns however, that investors may not be focusing on: unemployment figures are beginning to rise (on layoffs), manufacturing activity is shrinking, the trucking industry is reporting a big falloff in overall shipping activity, and analysts are predicting an impending mass of commercial real estate defaults leading to foreclosures and plummeting values. When these issues will fully manifest and come to the attention of investors remains to be seen.
In the meantime, we profit from the uptrend as long as it lasts, and see how investors react to the upcoming Fed meeting at which interest rates may – or may not – be hiked.
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Stock Trader Weekly Results | June 12th, 2023
Performance for our Level 1 Newsletter (20 of the top 60 performing stocks)
8 new weekly highs among long positions. Big rise in AMTX (again) and EXPI. 9 stocks with double-digit % long gains:
DDD +13
INBX +26
ASTS +34
EXPI +67
AMTX +197
INVE +15
RCMT +26
AU +39
PUMP +70
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new weekly lows among short positions. 1 stock with double-digit % short gain:
VTNR +26
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Stock Market Recap | June 5th, 2023
More investors became buyers, perhaps in “fear of missing out” on a potential rally. Prices of most stocks rose, not just the few mega-cap stocks that have been driving the indexes higher.
The debt ceiling deal was indeed a relief to investors, as was another good employment report (although as mentioned before, it is not the least bit believable since often subject to large revision later on) and comments by some Fed members that “maybe rate increases could take a pause in June.”
Again, our most of our long positions either increased gains or reduced losses, while our shorts mostly held firm.
Summertime usually means sluggish stock prices on low trading volume, but the market has already been sluggish for several months, so it is possible stock prices may be more dynamic this summer – that would be a welcome development.
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Stock Trader Weekly Results | June 5th, 2023
Performance for our Level 1 Newsletter (20 of the top 60 performing stocks)
5 new weekly highs among long positions. Big rise in AMTX (again) and LE. 9 stocks with double-digit % long gains:
INVE +12
EXPI +29
ASTS +31
AU +41
PUMP +66
AMTX +120
LE +15
RCMT +22
INBX +33
2
new weekly lows among short positions. 1 stock with double-digit % short gain:
VTNR +23
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Stock Market Recap | May 30th, 2023
Buying interest continued among investors, possibly on expectations of a debt ceiling deal being reached – which did occur over the weekend although not finalized yet.
Despite expectations of another Fed rate hike in June, our technical analysis of chart data indicates institutions continue to be buyers at this time.
As with the prior week, mostly rising prices improved many of our long position gains or at least reduced our losses on those that have failed to gain any traction recently. Shorts remain gainers, but neutral.
A reminder that the major indexes, subject of most financial media focus, are hopelessly rigged and long ago ceased being representative of the broad market. While the MSM is joyfully noting the S&P500 is at a new yearly high, only those few mega-stocks are gainers – the other 493 stocks in the index have an average gain this year of only 1% and many are at or near 52 week lows – which you don’t hear about.
The true picture of the stock market is one struggling to rise off of recent lows, amid much investor pessimism over Washington’s anti-business influence.
Upward price bias may continue this coming week in the form of a relief really over a debt ceiling “crisis” being avoided.
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Stock Trader Weekly Results | May 30th, 2023
Performance for our Level 1 Newsletter (20 of the top 60 performing stocks)
4 new weekly highs among long positions. Big rise in AMTX (again). 8 stocks with double-digit % long gains:
INVE +14
ASTS +27
AU +34
PUMP +58
AMTX +86
RCMT +15
EXPI +25
INBX +30
No new weekly low among short positions. 1 stock with double-digit % short gain:
VTNR +20
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Stock Market Recap | May 17th, 2023
Repeat of prior week – generally of bad news for the U.S. economy – a pattern that is persisting without any change in sight.
The same concerns remain - slowing economic growth, more failures of regional banks, debt ceiling troubles and a Fed-induced recession expectation that is leading to reduced consumer confidence.
Downward bias in stock prices is the reaction by investors to what they see as an administration that seems unprepared (perhaps intentionally?) to address any of these matters.
Investors remain pessimistic and uninterested in owning stocks, with any buying attempts by value investors not supported by any follow-through buying by more investors.
Market conditions remain the most challenging right now since dating back to 2008. Prices move too little to signal an outright trade, so we suffer capital erosion in long positions in the meantime and hold the most unproductive positions in many years. Short positions are the profitable ones, though Level 1 again features fewer of these than Level 2 and 3.
A frustrating cycle to be in at the moment, requiring extreme patience.
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Stock Trader Weekly Results | May 17th, 2023
Performance for our Level 1 Newsletter (20 of the top 60 performing stocks)
1 new weekly high among long positions. 4 stocks with double-digit % long gains:
ASTS +20
INBX +33
AU +46
PUMP +47
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new weekly low among short positions. Big drop in VTNR. 1 stock with double-digit % short gain:
VTNR +21
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Stock Market Recap | May 9th, 2023
Another week, unsurprisingly, of bad news for the U.S. economy.
A raft of concerns included slowing economic growth, more failures of regional banks, debt ceiling troubles and Fed rate increases that will produce a greater, longer lasting recession. Making matters worse is an administration that seems unprepared to address any of these matters until they become an emergency.
As a result, investors continue to be pessimistic and uninterested in owning stocks though many institutions are holding their positions despite price declines.
In another trend of this administration, prior month’s employment numbers were revised downward significantly, by an error of hundreds of thousands, with little notice by the enabling media. As mentioned before, employment figures as reported have become unworthy of belief, such that Friday’s current report of substantial jobs growth is highly suspect and likely will be revised downward later as well. Nevertheless, naïve investors once again reacted like Charlie Brown running toward Lucy holding the football (with the predictable result) and caused a nonsensical rally on Friday with their buying.
Polling of many fellow professional traders confirms we are experiencing the most difficult conditions in over a decade for making any investing return headway. Frustration is at a decade high, and there is no immediate relief in sight. At some point, there will be a tremendously profitable rally, so we need to remain involved so as to profit from it, whenever it does happen.
In the meantime, gains and highlights remain scarce, and trades remain few (or none) owing to little price movement.
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Stock Trader Weekly Results | May 9th, 2023
Performance for our Level 1 Newsletter (20 of the top 60 performing stocks)
3 new weekly highs among long positions. Big rise in INBX. 5 stocks with double-digit % long gains:
ASTS +18
INBX +46
AU +62
PSTX +11
PUMP +50
1
new weekly low among short positions. 1 stock with double-digit % short gain:
RCMT +10
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Stock Trader Weekly Results | May 2nd, 2023
Performance for our Level 1 Newsletter (20 of the top 60 performing stocks)
1 new weekly high among long positions. Big rise in ASTS. 4 stocks with double-digit % long gain:
INBX +13
ASTS +24
AU +52
PUMP +54
No new weekly low among short positions. 1 stock with double-digit % short gain:
RCMT +20
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Stock Market Recap | May 2nd, 2023
Another in a long string of forgettable weeks, with little price change among stocks either way, reflecting a lack of consensus among investors and wide disinterest in the entire stock market at the moment.
What little economic news that surfaced was generally negative again, although not negative enough to compel a market sell-off, which would at least yield profits from short positions.
As in most recent weeks, our stocks did not move much, as investors just do not have any confidence in being in the market at all until there is some positive, decisive pro-business action from Washington – which is not expected from the current administration.
In the meantime, we wait patiently for a productive move in stock prices either direction, which may be a while in coming, while sitting on a record-high number of unproductive positions. At the moment, no investing strategy is proving productive, leaving all investors highly frustrated.
As mentioned last week, it may take a change of leadership in Washington to see a consensus among investors develop that moves prices significantly. 2023 could prove to be a long year.
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Stock Market Recap | April 4th, 2023
Another positive week for stock prices, as it appears the banking sector mess was contained to just a few poorly managed banks, has been adequately resolved, and will not be a drag on the overall economy.
This price recovery shows once again that institutional investors were correct in holding their stocks the past few weeks, while amateur investors who panic sold at momentarily depressed prices did the wrong thing. Again.
Also contributing to the rally was Friday’s inflation data which did show at least modest signs of decreasing.
Most of our stocks were up, which helped improve long gains or at least reduce losses, while our shorts were a mix of new weekly lows and others rising to give up some of their downward gains.
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Stock Trader Weekly Results | April 4th, 2022
Performance for our Level 1 Newsletter (20 of the top 60 performing stocks)
2 new weekly highs among long positions. Big rise in AU and LE. 4 stocks with double-digit % long gains:
DDD +24
AU +27
PUMP +59
LE +24
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new weekly lows among short positions. 4 stocks with double-digit % short gain:
KIROY +14
MDRX +24
ALT +67
RCMT +15
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Stock Market Recap | March 29th, 2023
Another volatile week in which stock prices moved up, then down, then finished up, such that major indexes finished higher for the week.
Sentiment movers were banking rescues (positive), then the Fed’s rate increase and pessimistic comments regarding the economy (negative) and then investor buying at week’s end on technical signs of a possible market bottom.
A generally productive week for our stocks, with most shorts continuing downward – against the tide – and long positions mixed. A few trade opportunities emerging.
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Stock Trader Weekly Results | March 29th, 2022
Performance for our Level 1 Newsletter (20 of the top 60 performing stocks)
1 new weekly high among long positions. 4 stocks with double-digit % long gains:
DDD +17
AU +27
PUMP +52
LE +10
Locking in long gain of +21.9% in ASTS.
3 new weekly lows among short positions. Huge drop in ALT. Big drop in RCMT. 5 stocks with double-digit % short gain:
VALE +10
KIROY +21
ALT +66
MDRX +23
RCMT +24
We follow the smart money, institutional investors. Subscribe and get your first month free at www.stocktraderadvisory.com
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