The Wire - March 12, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z March 12, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: POTENTIAL FOR UKRAINE PEACE TALKS INCREASES. TRADE WARS REMAIN AS BEFORE. VIOLENCE IN SYRIA CONTINUES TO ESCALATE.//

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-International Events-

Syria: The violence continues as before. Most of the killing remains focused in the northwestern regions of the country. AC: Some reports claim the killing has resulted in the murder of around 7,000 Alawites and Christians, however for obvious reasons this is impossible to independently verify.

Ukraine: US State Department rhetoric over the past few days has suggested an increased likelihood for peace talks, with diplomats on all sides engaging in talks and floating the idea of a 30-day ceasefire while negotiations are ongoing. Ukraine's Zelenskyy has reportedly sent an apology letter to President Trump, though the contents of the letter have not yet been made public. In response, Trump has invited Zelenskyy back to the White House for ongoing negotiations.

Europe: British media outlets reported that the captain of the M/V SOLONG has been arrested in the United Kingdom following the collision with the American tanker M/V STENA IMMACULATE. Media outlets have also reported that the captain is of Russian nationality, though this hasn't been independently confirmed.

-HomeFront-

USA: Canada announced a new round of tit-for-tat economic tariffs on assorted goods imported into the United States. AC: Most media outlets report that the tariffs will affect around $30 billion worth of goods, mostly in the form of motorcycles, alcohol, and sports equipment.

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Analyst Comments: In Ukraine, even though a peace agreement will take some time to negotiate, a temporary ceasefire will be easier to implement first. However, in a conflict where one nation is a superpower, and the other nation is not, that superpower is going to want some concessions to come to the table in the first place. It does not make it right or moral, but this is the way it is. In short, Russia wants peace on her terms...just because Ukraine might be getting ready for peace doesn't mean that the same offers are on the table anymore. Ukraine continuing the fight up until the exact moment they are ready for peace does not automatically mean that this timing will be acceptable by Russia. While the United States fixates on getting Zelenskyy on board (or ousted from office if that isn't an option), this alone is not the only barrier to peace. Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov alluded to as much this morning, in which he said "let's not get ahead of ourselves" when asked about the potential for a 30-day ceasefire potentially coming into effect. However, most notably, the Kremlin's official first reaction to the potential for a ceasefire is not a "no", which is substantial progress over the past few years. Time will tell what the conditions for a ceasefire will be, and whether or not Russia will accept them. The prospects of this might be challenging due to the subtle messages conveyed to the West during Putin's recent visit to the Kursk region which has been host to Ukraine's own counter-invasion for a few months. Putin himself made the trip while wearing a camouflaged military uniform instead of his traditional suit and tie, which is very likely intended to convey his diplomatic position in a classic Russian manner. In short, the White House makes a big deal about Zelenskyy not wearing a suit during diplomatic talks, and a few days later Putin (who almost always wears a suit normally) shows up in Kursk in full military uniform, something he rarely does. This has also been amplified by reports this afternoon of President Putin rejecting all notions of peacekeepers in Ukraine; an idea which either directly contradicts what President Trump stated a few weeks ago, or indicates that Putin has changed the terms of what he deems to be an acceptable peace agreement.

Regarding the STENA IMMACULATE incident in the North Sea, though the investigation is ongoing, the arrest of the captain of the colliding ship strongly indicates how that investigation is going, and that investigators think this may have been more intentional. Regardless of the careful language used throughout the maritime community to describe incidents like this (because there is big money in shipping, and large lawsuits abound), during a time of increased international tension, any collision with an asset that has military value (such as the STENA being a fueler for American warships) should first be considered to be a hostile act, while the fog of war is in effect. As with all potentially serious issues, assume it's a hostile act from a risk management perspective in the heat of the moment, and then as more information comes in, walk that risk assessment back to a more reasonable perspective. Unfortunately, as more information comes in, this walking-back has been hard to do, since so much overwhelming evidence (at least that which is publicly available) indicates that this collision was extremely concerning at best, and overtly hostile at worst.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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