Andrei Illarionov: The ‘Coup’: Assessing What Happened and What will Happen Next in Russia

From the CPDC webinar, No Limits: Xi’s Cuba Gambit and Putin’s Turbulent Week
https://presentdangerchina.org/webinar-no-limits-xis-cuba-gambit-and-putins-turbulent-week/

TRANSCRIPT

[00:00:00] The so-called mutiny of Mr. Prigozhin with his private company. Wagner has revealed several very important features of the current political regime in Russia and the reactions on this mutiny and on the political regime in Russia from outside. What are the most important observations we can make right now? First, it was not a coup aimed at overthrowing Putin or Putin's regime. Mr. Prigozhin never said such a goal, never proclaimed that his goal is to overthrow Putin or regime or to change regime or to replace anyone except of two persons, Minister of Defense Shoygu and the Chief of Staff, Gerasimov. So that is why this is a very private affair between some fractions of the Putin's regime, not anything that is aimed on changing this regime or replacing this regime or overthrowing this regime. Second, it has been demonstrated very vividly that this private company, Wagner, is not private. It is state, state, one state funded. And today Mr. Putin has explained in details and described how much money has been spent on this company. So that's exactly what people discussed for at length for all these many years that the so-called private company is not private company. This is state company. And today, not anyone, but Putin himself has confirmed it. And he mentioned numbers with billions of US dollars that the Putin's government has spent on this company. Third, very important observation that this state company that has accumulated probably the best trained forces within Russian troops has demonstrated a remarkable ability to achieve its goal.

[00:02:07] Within 24 hours, they moved at distance approximately 800km from Lugansk and Rostov to Moscow. And by the speed and easiness with which it was moving, it is by far the best, the most impressive special military operations in which Russian forces have been involved over the last three decades. Next point is the fear that has engulfed Putin personally and his entourage during these 24 hours of mutiny. Putin has been frightened very deeply, and he tried to stop these columns unsuccessfully. And he used, as we know, air forces that have been shot down by Wagner. And in the process of this mutiny, Putin asked for help. And this is remarkable. Whom he asked for this help. He helped He asked for the help in this case, leaders of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkey. It looks like that Kazakh and Uzbek leaders politely declined their participation in this crisis. Mr. Lukashenko participated in this crisis, but it was what is really remarkable and no precedent in history of Russia for all these multi-century histories of this state that Mr. Erdogan, president of Turkey, has suggested his mediation services in solving Russian domestic crisis. Now, the so-called Putin has not been put down in the very strict sense of this word because nobody has been arrested, nobody has been shot among those who launched this uprising.

[00:04:05] Moreover, it has been reached some kind of deal according to which Prigozhin himself with part of his troops would move to Belarus. And definitely it does not look like it's going to be the prison or something like that. It looks like that this company and these forces would continue their service for Belarus and for Russian forces and for Putin himself, probably new capacity how it will develop. It is too early to say, but it appears that the security environment of Putin and military environment of Putin tacitly behind not maybe not necessarily Prigozhin personally, but behind the idea not to destroy this company. Initially, Putin wanted to destroy this company and. Destroy its leadership, but looks like that the balance of power has changed so dramatically that Putin was not able to do it, and as a result, the deal has been achieved. And it shows to the first of all, to the regime itself, to Russian people and to outsiders around the world, that the so-called Personalistic regime of Putin is not personalistic regime. This is a much more like a military or security junta within which the balance of power is distributed unevenly. And the positions of different forces in this junta is not yet clear as of the current situation. What also necessary to mention what position has been taken by some Western participants in this geopolitical battle, especially by G7 country and by the Biden administration.

[00:06:06] They have contacted Kremlin and as the White House has announced, they had very good communications with Kremlin and as it has been revealed later by CNN and by the Financial Times, Biden administration sidelined with Putin against Prigozhin. So that is why they publicly put a pressure on Ukrainians not to attack offensive assets on the Russian territory during the crisis and not to attack Russia at all, just not to allow political instability in Russia, which is in the language of the White House, meaning Putin's political regime, which means that Biden's administration fully supported Putin's regime in the war between Putin's forces and Ukraine. This is one of the most outstanding, shocking and even scandalous fact that the Biden regime is demonstrating itself as a lie of Putin against Ukraine. So, the very fact shows that in the critical situations, which one was just happened over the last few days in front of our eyes in all those critical situations, Biden administration is supporting Putin and is saving Putin is saving Putin's regime. So that is why the main question that has been discussed over the last year and a half whether Ukraine is able to defeat Putin's regime. The answer is very clearly, as long as Biden's administration supporting Putin's regime, not only China or Iran or North Korea, but as long as the Biden administration is supporting Putin's regime, it would be very hard for Ukraine alone to defeat aggressor.