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The war in Ukraine continues, and the Ukrainian soldiers use a new tactic at the front amid a lack of ammunition - they strike with artillery, and then destroy the remnants of the enemy forces with the help of FPV-drones. Such drones cannot become a literal replacement for shells, but they can supplement traditional artillery and alleviate the reducing but constant shortage of ammunition among the defenders of the Ukrainian state, Forbes writes. "One of the Ukrainian tactics that we observe is that accurate artillery fire strikes a large Russian assault group and scatters its troops and hardware. Disorganised survivors taking cover beyond the protection of their radio jammers and air defence equipment become easy targets for FPVs which attack isolated soldiers and hardware," the article says. The publication notes that while previously a battery of Ukrainians could fire 10 shells to hit a Russian assault group, now it can use only five shells and coordinate its actions with FPV drone operators to eliminate the enemies. The journalists added that the Ukrainian army's "shell famine" deepened at the end of 2023, and a network of hundreds of small workshops across our country began producing more combat drones. According to the publication, they can now make more than 50,000 drones, "which apparently far exceeds Russia's own production of effective drones". In the worst days of Ukraine’s artillery crisis, last month, Kyiv’s batteries were firing just 2,000 shells a day—a fifth as many shells as Russian batteries were firing. That ammo gap is one reason why the Ukrainian garrison in Avdiivka, in eastern Ukraine, ultimately had no choice but to retreat in mid-February, delivering to the Russians their only major battlefield win of the winter. But the ammo gap now is shrinking, and Ukrainian brigades are holding the line all along the front while inflicting devastating—and unsustainable—losses on attacking Russian regiments. Lately it hasn’t been unusual for the Russians to lose a thousand people and dozens of armored vehicles in a single day.

Russia may have the military capability to attack NATO as early as 2026-27. Polish President Andrzej Duda said this in an interview with CNBC.The Polish president defended his recent proposal to increase the required threshold for NATO defence spending from 2 to 3% of GDP. "From my point of view, it’s a question of common sense. New reports are coming in, and I recently saw one by German experts which said that soon, perhaps as early as 2026 or 2027, Putin, by putting his economy on a war footing, will have such military might that he will be able to attack NATO," Duda said. "The alarm bells are ringing. We have two or three years in which we can increase our efforts, stockpile ammunition and produce weapons to maximise European security, get ready and make sure the invasion does not happen," he added. He also urged the US to continue to support Ukraine, warning that if Russia is not stopped in Ukraine, the cost will rise sharply later. "This Russian aggression has to be stopped at all cost. If it’s not stopped it will spill over and then, I fear US money won’t be enough to stop Russia: US soldiers will have to step in and no one wants that," Duda said. At the same time, he said that "every dollar donated to support Ukraine, every Bradley transferred to Ukraine, every weapon transferred to Ukraine, every box of artillery ammunition transferred to Ukraine staves off the Russian victory". Earlier, German intelligence services had prepared an analysis for the German government examining the military threat posed by Russia, which predicted that it could attack the territory of NATO member states "starting in 2026". In recent weeks, a number of European NATO countries have warned of the risk of Russian aggression in the near future. For example, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said in January that the Alliance should prepare for a Russian attack on a NATO country within 5-8 years.

Some economic and military indicators suggest that Russia may be preparing for a large-scale conventional war with NATO, "likely on a shorter timeline than what some Western analysts have initially posited," the Institute for the Study of War assessed in its report. Although not an imminent threat, the ISW assesses that Russian President Vladimir Putin's emphasis on growing Russia's economic and military capabilities is an indication that Russia is gearing up for conflict beyond "a protracted war in Ukraine." Following Putin's rigged "victory" in the 2024 Russian presidential election, the Russian leader met with party faction leaders in the Russian State Duma, Russia's lower house, to emphasize Russia's priorities in growing the economy. According to a readout released by the Kremlin, Putin emphasized the need to grow the "new elite" that will "will mature on the front," as opposed to supporting Russian oligarchs who have "lined their pockets" in amassing wealth through privatization and corruption after the fall of the Soviet Union. The ISW suggests that by outlining a mandate to Russian political elites, Putin is likely seeking to "stabilize Russia's long-term financial position with increased government expenditure." Putin's willingness to risk his relationships with the wealthy strongmen who support him points to more expansive military ambitions. Despite opposition from some Russian oligarchs at the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, a shift to a war-time economy will reportedly grow Russia's gross domestic product by 2.6 percent this year, with 3.6 percent growth in 2023. The ISW also assessed that an expansion of Russia's military capabilities, as well as military restructuring, are indicators that Russia is setting conditions for the possibility of future direct conflict with NATO. The ISW gave no timeline as to when they believe a direct conflict with NATO may play out, noting that a timeline for Russia's preparedness to launch an attack against NATO is heavily reliant "on the financial resources Putin is willing to put against military efforts."

Iran’s Houthi militia in Yemen penetrated Israel’s air defence systems with a cruise missile landing in southern Israel. While the Israel’s Army did not explicitly name the Yemeni militia, it is widely believed to be part of ongoing operations by the group in the Red Sea. The Army of Israel is currently investigating why the missile wasn't intercepted, citing the possibility that its flight pattern caught air defense operators off guard. The Houthis, who rule north Yemen, including the capital Sanaa, also claimed responsibility for the missile attack, with spokesman Yahya Saree saying the Iran-aligned group had targeted southern Israel with missile fire. The missile did not cause any damage or injury, but questions remain as to how the projectile made its way through Israeli defences. The Houthis have attempted to strike Israel with ballistic missiles since the beginning of its war on Gaza last October, yet this marks the first time one has actually hit Israeli territory. Until now, all Houthi missiles have been shot down by Israel’s Arrow 1 or 3 missile defence systems. One possibility as to why it evaded Israel’s defences is that because of the "line-drive" trajectory at which cruise missiles fly, Israeli missile defence operators may have been caught by surprise, according to The Jerusalem Post. The Houthis’ maritime assaults from the Red Sea region began in November, initiated by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. After Iran-backed Hamas invaded Israel on October 7, its relentless retaliation has seen Iran’s proxies attack the Jewish state and American targets, punishing the US for supporting Israel’s right to defend itself. Their attacks have already disrupted maritime routes, compelling vessels to opt for longer journeys bypassing the Red Sea and Suez Canal.

The Russian army carried out airstrikes on the village of Kozinka in the Belgorod region, where pro-Ukrainian saboteurs had broken through. This can be seen in photographs of the territory, reports Bild military observer Julian Röpke. “The video shows massive Russian airstrikes on. Russia,” he says. “Although forces hostile to the regime captured only one street in the small village of Kozinka in the Belgorod region, Putin responded with brutal force, such as numerous FAB-500 glide bombs from fighter-bombers.” The Russian village of Kozinka is located near the border with Ukraine. There have been battles there for several days now between Russian troops and volunteer formations of Freedom of Russia Legion, the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Siberian Battalion reported their participation in the operation. A local resident spoke about the fact that “the villages are practically destroyed” on the Dozhd TV channel. “As far as we know, the sabotage and reconnaissance groups tried to enter there and they were driven out with the help of various bombs,” the woman said. “Accordingly, they dumped them on residential buildings — and in most cases there are no houses.” Also, of course, there were shellings. From the footage of the village of Kozinka that leaked to us, we see that the houses have been razed to the ground; at best, only the foundation remained.” Pro-war blogger Alex Parker said that “the village of Kozinka virtually no longer exists.” “There is not a single intact house; cast iron is actively flying around the village,” he writes. “Houses are being destroyed. Most likely, a similar fate awaits other border settlements.” Later, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that the village of Kozinka had been “completely cleared” of saboteurs. According to the department, “as a result of air strikes and artillery fire, the enemy lost up to 650 militants, two armored combat vehicles and two Czech-made Vampire MLRS combat vehicles.” Since mid-March, the Belgorod region has been attacked by sabotage and reconnaissance groups. On March 12, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that an attack on the village of Tetkino in the Belgorod region had been repelled. The FSB added that during the fighting, 100 people, six tanks, 20 Caesar armored vehicles and self-propelled artillery units were destroyed. However, attacks by saboteurs and battles with them continued. At the same time, Belgorod and the region are regularly shelled.

Eliminating French military personnel that may appear in Ukraine would be a critical but not particularly difficult mission for the Russian Armed Forces, but for Paris such a humiliating defeat of its legions would be tantamount to being guillotined, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said. "Actually, for the success of our cause, it would be nice if the restless French dispatched a couple of regiments to ‘Banderaland.’ It would be very problematic to hide such a number of servicemen, so systematically eliminating them would not be the most difficult task, but surely the most important one. But, just think of the beneficial knock-on effect!" he wrote on his Telegram channel. As Medvedev noted, with so many coffins to be delivered to France from a foreign country it would be impossible to hide the mass deaths of professional soldiers. "There will be no chance of getting away with various lame excuses and speculations that mercenaries choose their own fate and that they are risking their lives at their own discretion," he warned. The deputy head of the Russian Security Council pointed out that such military personnel would become full-fledged combatants as part of an interventionist contingent, and so their destruction would be "a priority and a matter of honor" for the Russian Armed Forces. "As for the Gallic roosters in the French leadership, it would be tantamount to being guillotined. They would be torn to pieces both by the enraged relatives and angry members of the opposition, who have been assured all along that France is not at war with Russia. Also, it would be a good lesson for other rambunctious fools in Europe," Medvedev predicted. He suggested that the immortal lines of 19th century classic Russian writer Alexander Pushkin will prove their timeless relevance once again: "Then send your numbers without number, Your maddened sons, your goaded slaves, In Russia's plains there's room to slumber, And well they'll know their brethren's graves!" On March 19, Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Director Sergey Naryshkin said that France was already preparing a military contingent to be sent to Ukraine, which would initially amount to about 2,000 soldiers.

France is preparing its forces for deployment to Ukraine, the head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service Sergey Naryshkin claimed in a statement. Paris allegedly seeks to send as many as 2,000 troops to Ukraine, he said. French President Emmanuel Macron said last month that he “cannot exclude” the possibility of Western soldiers being sent to aid Kiev in its fight against Moscow, branding Russia an “adversary” while denying Paris was “waging war” against it. Russia’s military and top officials have repeatedly pointed to the presence of French mercenaries already fighting for Kiev on the ground. In mid-January, the Russian Defense Ministry said that more than 60 foreigners, predominantly French nationals, had been killed in a high precision strike against a “temporary assembly point of foreign fighters.” In the statement, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service chief said the French Armed Forces had become “concerned” about the rising number of French nationals dying in Ukraine. According to the spy chief, the French military is worried about the government’s plans to send the contingent to Ukraine, considering that such an operation would be difficult to conduct without Russia noticing. The French soldiers would indeed become “a legitimate priority target for attacks by the Russian Armed Forces,” Naryshkin said. The claims come as the chief of staff of the French Army, Gen. Pierre Schill, said in an interview that France is prepared to take part in the “toughest engagements” militarily, and is ready to face any international developments. He added that Paris could assemble a division of 20,000 troops within 30 days and an army of 60,000 by joining with divisions from other NATO allies. Schill said France has “international responsibilities” and is linked by defense agreements to “states exposed to major threats,” and must therefore have its forces trained and interoperable with allied armies. He added that nuclear deterrence “is not a universal guarantee” because it does not guard against conflicts that would remain “below the threshold of vital interests.” Schill said that the Army must show itself a credible force through responsiveness in terms of force projection and the ability to carry out operations of increased scope. Russian President Vladimir Putin has also claimed that Western mercenaries, including French nationals, are dying in Ukraine “in large numbers.” Commenting on a potential NATO deployment to Ukraine, the president also warned that this would be “one step shy of a full-scale World War III.”

Russian volunteer troops fighting on the side of Ukraine continue to raid the Kursk and Belgorod regions. According to RBC-Ukraine, the rebels managed to occupy some settlements near the Russian border, and the gray zone has expanded during the week of fighting. Recall on March 12, it became known that the Russian border had been breached by fighters of the Freedom of Russia Legion, the Russian Volunteer Corps, and the Siberian Battalion, who are fighting on the side of Ukraine. These volunteer battalions have entered Kursk and Belgorod regions, where they continue to fight, including attacks on the Russian occupiers' military facilities. From the first day of the operation, the Russian Volunteer Corps, the Freedom of Russia Legion, and the Siberian Battalion claimed that they had managed to take control of Tyotkino in the Kursk region. But later, the volunteers clarified that they had taken only a part of the village and that fighting was still going on. Currently, the gray zone in the area of Tyotkino covers 11.29 square kilometers. Then gray zone has covered Glotovo and Kozinka in the Belgorod region and covers an area of 14.88 square kilometers. On March 18, Russian rebels announced that they had taken control of Kozinka. A flag was raised there. It should be noted that this village in the Graivoronsky district has already been significantly destroyed by Russian aviation. Not so far from this area, a new gray zone has recently formed in the village of Gor'kovskiy, Belgorod region, with a size of 9.84 square kilometers. Thus, on March 17, the Siberian Battalion reported that fighters together with Ichkerian volunteers entered the village and seized the administrative building. A few hours later, the rebels claimed that the settlement was under their control and raised the flag. Very close to the village of Gor'kovskiy, Russian volunteer troops also occupied the border village of Lozovaya Rudka. The gray zone there is currently not large - 0.34 square kilometers. In addition, the village of Nekhoteyevka in the Belgorod district also fell under the gray zone. We are talking about an area of 1.57 square kilometers. The Russian authorities also lost control of the village of Novaya Tavolzhanka in the Belgorod region. The gray zone there is 13.72 square kilometers. In total, the gray zones in Belgorod and Kursk regions cover 51.64 square kilometers.

The Russian trawler “Captain Lobanov” sank in the Baltic Sea. Preliminarily, this happened due to an explosion on board. Russian media reported this. According to preliminary information, the explosion occurred in the Baltic Sea in a 10-mile zone, not far from the coast of the Kaliningrad region.The ship sent out a distress signal. There were 7 crew members on board the trawler, four were wounded. At least one person died. So, “Captain Lobanov” sank near the city of Pionersky in the Kaliningrad oblast in the Baltic Sea, which has been described as a "NATO Lake" following the expansion of the alliance in response to Moscow's aggression in Ukraine. There are no reports suggesting the vessel's sinking was anything other than an accident but pro-Ukrainian social media accounts posted details of the incident next to images of the vessel. A spokesperson for the regional government said the fire was caused by "an emergency situation" without providing further details, according to the newspaper Kommersant. "On behalf of the government of the region, we express our deepest condolences to the families and friends of the victims. The wounded will be provided with all necessary medical care," the statement said. The 112 Telegram channel said that the vessel had faced problems before, partially sinking in June 2021 when it fell on its side during an attempted launch near the village of Svetly, about 20 miles west of Kaliningrad. There were no casualties then, but the incident prompted an inspection by the local prosecutor's office, and the waters of Kaliningrad Bay were polluted with oil products. Kaliningrad is an area of growing tension with the Russian exclave located in strategically significant territory on the Baltic coast. According to Newsweek, it hosts military assets, including naval bases, airfields, and missile systems and is bordered by NATO members Lithuania and Poland. Following last month's agreement to allow the accession of Sweden to the alliance, the region was described by some social media users as a "NATO Lake."

A tenth of fuel production in the Russian Federation has been paralyzed as a result of Ukrainian attacks. This is a serious blow to the Russian economy. The Charter97 website spoke about this with Ukrainian military-political observer of the Information Resistance group Oleksandr Kovalenko. “Firstly, the shocks affected the export of Russian petroleum products, which is the main item in filling the Russian budget. Secondly, internal economic destabilization occurred, which is already manifesting itself very eloquently. It affected domestic civilian and commercial consumers: gasoline prices are rising, queues are lining up for it in a number of settlements, and in some places there is a shortage”, Kovalenko added. “However, the Russian authorities do not pay much attention to civilians, but if the commercial component begins to suffer, then this, again, is an impact on the budget that finances the war against Ukraine. Thirdly, a blow was also struck to the supply of fuel and lubricants to the Russian occupation forces. Here I will immediately emphasize that Putin will sacrifice everything: civilians, commerce, he may not even fill ambulances, but everything will be sent to war. Damaged plants, refinery stations and transport hubs currently do not provide the full volume of petroleum products processing, as well as their transit. The length of delivery of fuels and lubricants increases. The Russian occupying forces are beginning to feel a progressive deficit, but the first signs are already happening against the backdrop of a collapse in exports and a deficit for domestic consumers. Such attacks are effective, they will continue, if only for the reason that the restoration of any of these oil refineries in itself is unacceptable. In addition, there are several refineries left in the near affected area that should be taken out of operation”, expert said. Perhaps Russia will use the Belarusian oil refineries in Mazyr and Navapolatsk for its needs. Is there a possibility that some unidentified UAV will fly to these objects? According to expert, it is possible that Putin will use them. “But they will not be able to compensate for the dozens of Russian refineries that have failed or are temporarily out of order. This will be some kind of situational compensation that will not have a critical impact on the resumption of supply to the domestic consumer in the Russian Federation or the occupying army. On the other hand, if this facility takes part in this kind of support and supply, then who knows... In Belarus, after all, there are partisans who act in the interests of the Belarusian people, and not the Lukashenka regime. It is possible that something could happen there too”, Kovalenko said.

Nine countries in South America possess Russian military equipment, which the US could potentially transfer to Ukraine, according to Laura Richardson, commander of U.S. Southern Command. According to her, nine countries in South America have Russian military equipment. The US proposes to exchange this equipment for use in Ukraine and replace it with American equipment, which is much better than Russian-made equipment. The American general did not name the countries in question, but Argentina, Guyana, Venezuela, and Haiti are mentioned in the text. There is also information that Uruguay, Ecuador, Cuba, and Nicaragua have Soviet equipment in their Armed Forces. Argentina has transferred two multipurpose Mi-171E helicopters to Ukraine, which were previously purchased in Russia. Also, in January of last year, Laura Richardson already stated that the US was seeking Soviet weapons in Central and South American countries. Recently, Greece has also reportedly decided to arm Ukraine with Soviet-origin S-300 surface-to-air missile systems. The military transfer, according to reports, could eventually include other Soviet-origin military equipment, including prototypes of the ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft gun and the Tor and Osa short-range mobile air defense systems. The Pentagon documents that were leaked in February last year revealed that the stockpiles of missiles for Ukraine’s S-300 and Buk SAMs were expected to be “completely depleted” by early May. Although a predecessor of the highly advanced Russian S-400, this missile system is still deemed capable of countering ballistic and cruise missiles. The several variants of the S-300 deployed in the current battle have cosplayed as Ukraine’s primary armor and an indelible part of its layered missile defense system against Russian attacks. According to local reports in the Greek media, the country approved the delivery of S-300s only after the US approved the sale of F-35A stealth fighters to Athens, establishing a direct link between the two decisions. The US approved the sale of 40 F-35 aircraft to Greece, estimated to cost $8.6 billion.

Polish President Andrzej Duda said that NATO must urgently increase its defense spending to ensure it does not become the next target of a Russian attack. Speaking to CNBC, Duda reiterated his calls for NATO members to increase their military contributions to 3% amid new reports that Moscow could be readying to target the military alliance within two to three years. Citing unspecified German research, Duda said new evidence suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin is doubling down on his shift toward a war economy with a view to attacking NATO in 2026 or 2027. It follows Danish intelligence reports from February which suggested that Moscow could launch an attack on NATO within three to five years. “The alarm bells are ringing,” he told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick, according to a translation. Duda said it was therefore more critical than ever to ramp up the alliance’s military investment, describing his increased spending targets as “common sense.” “We have two or three years in which we can increase our efforts, stockpile ammunition and produce weapons to maximize European security, get ready and make sure the invasion does not happen,” he said. “All this needs to be done in order not to have to get involved in a fight. The point is to create such a deterrent that ensures we are not attacked. This is the whole point because none of us want war,” he added. The Polish president, whose country shares a land border with Ukraine, has spearheaded calls to supply weapons to Kyiv since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Poland has also bolstered its own military capabilities, ramping up its defense spending in 2023 to almost 4% of gross domestic product— ahead of even the U.S. in percentage terms. During a meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden last week, Duda called for NATO to raise its minimum military spending target to 3% of GDP to further strengthen the alliance’s defenses.

When conducting air strikes against Ukraine, Russia may be relying on satellite photos provided by U.S. companies, The Atlantic reported, citing an unnamed Ukrainian defense official. According to the source, commercial satellites take images of a specific site in Ukraine, and days or weeks later, Russian missiles hit the location. At times, another satellite then captures additional images, possibly to assess the damage. The source said that a review of logs of customers requesting images of certain strategic assets in Ukraine suggests a certain pattern. For instance, they told the journalists that in the week leading up to April 2, 2022, U.S. orbital imaging companies processed a request for photos of a remote airstrip near Myrhorod, Poltava Oblast, at least nine times. On April 2, the airstrip was hit by Russian missiles, and the following week, someone requested images of the airstrip again. Just before March 26, 2022, someone ordered a satellite to survey a Lviv factory used for military armor production, which was subsequently attacked. More recently, in late January 2024, a commercial satellite company was tasked to take fresh images of Kyiv right before the city suffered a major missile attack. “The number of coincidences, where the images are followed by strikes, is too high to be random,” the official said. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Kateryna Chernohorenko suggested that Russia “purchases satellite images through intermediaries” that do business with Western satellite firms. The article also mentions that Maxar and Planet, two of the largest commercial providers of satellite images in the United States, captured photos of Ukrainian sites that were later targeted by Russian missiles. Although the companies maintain they carefully vet their clients and have not cooperated with Russia since the start of the war in February 2022, Andrey Liscovich, head of a U.S. nonprofit providing nonlethal assistance to Ukraine, is skeptical about the companies’ claims of controlling the end-use of their satellite images. “They lack the necessary resources to adequately screen the final recipients of their products,” Liskovych said.

On the night of March 20, there was a drone attack on the Engels airfield located in the Saratov region of Russia. The Russian press reported on this. The governor of the province said that the anti-aircraft defense system was activated and Ukrainian drones were shot down, and there were no casualties as a result of the incident. Local residents say that explosions took place in several places. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, four drones were shot down over the Saratov region. It should be noted that Engels airfield is home to strategic bombers that launch missile strikes on Ukraine. It should be recalled that there was a drone attack on the Engels Air Base in December 2022. As a result, 6 soldiers died, two planes were damaged.