Putin's revenge on Wall Street? | David Woo
The euro, oil, and the bond market are trading as if the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be soon over. Even if the short-term economic impact may be waning, should we be concerned about any longer term effects? What if the war were to drag on and even escalate? What does the war mean for the financial markets in 2023? A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#russiaukraineconflict #financialmarket #oil
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Is recession a certainty ? | David Woo
Why is everyone on Wall Street talking about a recession in 2023? Is a recession a foregone conclusion? Does a Federal Reserve interest rate hiking cycle have to end in a recession? What about the fact that US private sector balance sheets have never been stronger in 30 years? What is preventing high mortgage rates from crashing the housing market? Why is the bursting of the stock market the biggest threat to the US and global economy next year? A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#recession #stockmarketnews #housingmarket
New Russia sanctions: Oil prices are too low?
The first round of western sanctions against Russian oil exports has hurt the West more than Russia. But the US and its allies have not given up. On December 5, they will be implementing new and more extreme sanctions. Will these new sanctions be more successful? How will Russia respond? What about China, India, and Saudi Arabia? After a 40% drop from the high of the year, where is oil price heading? Should you be buying or selling oil right now? A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#investing #russiaukrainewar #oil
Are Italian assets worth investing in? | David Woo & Patrizia Bussoli
Can Italy, long considered the sick man of Europe, reinvent itself under the leadership of Giorgia Meloni, its first ever female Prime Minister? Did you know that this is the best chance that Italy has had in 50 years? What does Italy have to do to to become the economic juggernaut that it once was? What about the refugee crisis in Europe? Under what conditions will the European stock market outperform the US in 2023? A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist is joined by one of the most senior women in the Italian asset management industry to talk about the future of Europe and investing in Europe.
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#italy #investing #giorgia_meloni
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Biden's Gamble | David Woo
Biden, Xi, Putin, and Scholz have given us a rare glimpse into their world views and expositions of their calculations. The US has decided that it has so much at stake in the unipolar world order that it can't afford to take any chances. However, can it count on Germany and other allies to follow its lead to isolate China like with Russia? The power struggle between the unipolar world order and the multipolar world has just started. While it is too early to predict its outcome, we now know at least what the game plan of each of the main protagonists is. A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#uschina #geopolitics #investing
Fed, stock market play dangerous cat and mouse | David Woo
The stock market was alarmed this week by the admission of the Fed chairman Jerome Powell that the “ultimate level” of interest rates will likely be higher than the Fed’s earlier estimates. For much of the past year, the Federal Reserve has been revising up their projection of how far interest rates have to climb. With easing supply chain shortage, what does the Fed see in the economic data that causes them to think that ever higher interest rates are warranted? How high will interest rates go and how high is too high for the stock market, the bond market and the dollar. The greatest irony of 2022: the market's fear of missing the Fed pivot trades is making Fed tightening less effective and increasing the risk of rates overshooting. The stock market is making a recession inevitable. A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#stockmarket #interestrates #inflation
US-China economic decoupling is making inflation worse I David Woo
US-China economic decoupling has reached a point of no return. Who's to blame? What are its economic and market implications? Which side will be winner and which side the loser? Is the economic war already having an impact on inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy? A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#uschinawar #investing #inflation
David Woo
Breaking: Biden Unleashes Total Tech War on China I David Woo
Biden has unleashed the most stringent controls of US technology exports in decades in a drive to stop China, the world's largest consumer of semiconductors, from becoming self-sufficient. Why is the US doing this? What does this mean for the US-China relations? Can this backfire on the US? Who is going to end up paying the biggest price? A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#techwarsglobalconflict #uschina #semiconductors
us china tech decoupling xi jinping putin
Safe havens in the brave new world: Brazil & Mexico | David Woo
As the world economy teeters on the edge of a recession, the only surprising bright spots are Brazil and Mexico that that have seen their currencies rise against even the US dollar in a year of broad dollar strength. Why are these economies doing so well? What do they tell us about the winners and losers of our increasingly polarized world? What lessons can we take away and should we view the investment opportunities in these countries as the new safe havens? A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#investing #Brazil #russiaukrainewar
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Why is the US dollar so strong?
The US dollar is at a 40-year high. The last time the dollar was this strong the United States was the envy of the world. The US is no longer at the pinnacle of its power, but the surging dollar is a testament to the unipolar world we are still living in. The US and the USD have been the biggest winner of the Russia-Ukraine war so far, but the outcome of the war, which has yet to be decided, will determine whether the unipolar world will be giving way to a multi-polar one. There is much at stake for the USD as the world's reserve currency. A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#russiaukrainewar #dollar #investing
Britain in Crisis: a harbinger for the rest of the world? | David Woo
The British pound fell to its all-time low this week as the market openly revolted against the UK tax cuts of the Liz Truss government that was sworn in less than one month ago. What has precipitated the UK crisis? Is the market over-reacting or the worst has yet to come? Is it a harbinger of what's to come elsewhere in the world? Is the age of stimulus with impunity finally coming to an end? Will the British monarchy survive the passing of Queen Elizabeth? In this video, 6 people, each with a different perspective on these questions, share their insights at a London gathering over a glass of wine.
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#liztruss #brexit #bearmarket
Sleepwalking towards the cliff | David Woo & David Goldman
Wars, inflation, recession, social unrest, bear market... The outlook for the world arguably has not been this bad since the end of the second world war. Have we reached a point of no return? How bad will it get? Who is responsible? What does it mean for your investments? Two former Wall Street strategists share their diagnosis of the state of the world and give their predictions. You may not agree with everything they say but they will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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00:00 Introduction
01:51 The Russia Ukraine war: a turning point
06:19 Who is controlling the narratives and why?
13:39 What's in it for the US?
19:54 What's in it for the rest of the world?
25:57 Why did idealism take over?
32:01 The US elections
36:33 The Taiwan Policy Act
38:29 Any room for optimism?
#ukrainerussia #taiwanchina #bearmarket
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Russia-Ukraine War: 3 Scenarios for Investors | David Woo
With Russia suffering its most serious setback since the start of the war, the Russia-Ukraine war is at a critical juncture. Given the high degree of uncertainty, scenario analysis can be very useful to help investors identify potential outcomes and their implications. What are the most likely scenarios? What does each scenario mean for the financial markets? Why should investors expect higher oil price and lower stock price over the next two months? A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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Britain under Liz Truss: A force of moderation or extremism? I David Woo
Queen Elizabeth will be greatly missed, especially given Liz Truss, the new British Prime Minister, is about to take Britain down the rabbit hole. The world is in the throes of dangerous ideological clashes and British moderate pragmatism is needed more than ever. Yet, if Truss believes even half of what she says, the world and Britain are in serious trouble. What does this mean for the stock market and your investments? David Woo is a former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist who tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#liztruss #brexit #russiaukrainewar
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Can Europe survive Putin's "energy blackmail"? | David Woo
Ukraine wants a war of attrition but Russia wants to avoid it at all costs. To end the war quickly, Putin needs to (1) show the west that Ukraine cannot win the war and (2) raise the economic cost to Europe for supporting Ukraine. This means over the next 6 weeks we should expect Putin to launch a major offensive while using Russia's energy leverage (or blackmail depending on your point of view) to the hilt. This will have potentially massive ramifications for not just Europe but the global economy and financial markets. A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#russiaukrainewar #naturalgas #inflation
european central bank david woo
China: Bogeyman or Real Threat? | David Woo
There are two competing narratives about China in the media and only one can be right. Is China already a threat to the American hegemony or is the Chinese economy about to collapse? What version is closer to the truth? Which narrative serves whom better? What does it mean for your money? A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#china #unitedstates #coldwar
Inflation Already Peaked, Really? | David Woo
The market consensus that inflation has peaked and that central banks are off the hook has propelled both stocks and bonds higher since July. The question is whether this is based on facts or wishful thinking? Will inflation return to earth without both interest rates and unemployment rate going much higher? The prevailing convoluted market logic about inflation, interest rates, and recession has created compelling opportunities for smart investors. A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#inflation #interestrates #recession
What Chinese and Russian citizens think of Americans ... & each other | David Woo
The Biden administration, by pushing China and Russia into each other's arms, is creating a formidable enemy that the US cannot defeat. What do average Americans, Chinese, and Russians think about the evolving alliances and conflicts between their countries? Who do they think have the upper hand and what do they think is at stake? Who is the most patriotic and who is the most optimistic about the future? The results of the RIWI-UNBOUND Cold War II survey will surprise you. A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#uschinarelations #usrussia #coldwar
Should Taiwan Trust the US? | David Woo
The biggest loser of Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan are the Taiwanese people who face (1) an increased risk of a war with China and (2) losing their economic crown jewel to the US. Does the US really have Taiwan's best interest at heart or does it see Taiwan as just a pawn in its rivalry with China? The stock market views the fact that China did not intercept Nancy Pelosi's plane on rout to Taiwan as a sign of weakness. More likely Beijing is waiting for a decisive turn in the Russia Ukraine war before it responds to the latest US provocation. Zelensky's so far unsuccessful offensive in Kherson is the last chance he has to maintain US support. Financial markets are not prepared for the risk of the US-China Cold war turning hot as we approach the fall. A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#taiwan #ukraine #moneygame
Is Taiwan the next Ukraine ? | David Woo
Ukraine was a political football between Washington and Moscow before it was turned into a killing field. Is Taiwan next? Does China's lead in the race of hypersonic missiles have anything to do with US interest in Taiwan? Why are many Taiwanese wary of Nancy's Pelosi's planned visit next month? A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#Taiwan #ukrainerussiawar #hypersonicmissile
US Foreign Policy - Whose Interests Should It Serve? | David Woo
Biden says he will support Ukraine "as long as it takes" for it to win the war. For a country that Obama once declared was not a core US interest, why is Biden putting everything on the line for it, including risking a nuclear war? To understand the deepening US involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war, we need to understand the debate between realism and idealism in US foreign policy over the past 300 years. At the heart of the debate is whose interests US foreign policy is supposed to serve. A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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00:00 Introduction
04:32 Is the Ukraine war worth it?
02:38 Realist versus idealist US presidents
06:50 What about the US economy?
09:32 Along came Trump
12:29 Where does Biden stand and why?
15:24 Are they really out to get us?
#ukrainerussiawar #usforeignpolicy #recession
Is Russia winning the economic war? I David Woo
The US and Europe unleashed the mother of all economic sanctions against Russia to stop, or at least slow, its invasion of Ukraine. Nearly 5 months into the Russia-Ukraine war, what do the latest data tell us about the impact of these sanctions on the Russian economy? Will Washington's new plan to cap Russian oil price finally break the back of the Russian economy? Does Putin stand any chance against the combined economic might of the west? For the battered world economy and stock market facing high oil price, inflation, and recession, there is nothing more important than when and how this war will end. A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew. Welcome to the Money Game where David takes on groupthink, propaganda and conspiracy theories in his critical markets of markets, economics, politics and geopolitics.
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00:00 Introduction
00:52 Why is Putin still in the ring?
01:30 The cost of sanctions against Russia
02:06 The benefit of sanctions against Russia
04:37 What is the war costing Putin?
06:57 What is Biden planning next?
#Ukrainewar #Putin #sanctionsagainstrussia
What will Washington offer India and China for them to join a US led buyer cartel to cap Russian oil price? oil price forecast
What Warren Buffett's favorite Indicator says about stocks now
Warren Buffett's favorite valuation indicator for stocks has not done much better than his investment for the past decade? But stagflation is breathing new life into the indicator. What does the Buffett indicator say about downside for the stock market from here onwards? Growth investing has outperformed value investing for the past decade. Will stagflation save value investing? A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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00:00 Introduction
01:01 What went wrong with the Buffett indicator?
04:20 Is the Buffett indicator relevant again?
06:28 What does the Buffett indicator say about downside for US stocks from here?
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#warrenbuffett #stagflation #bearmarket
Key investment themes in 2022: de-globalization; declining labor productivity; shrinking corporate profit margin; increased inflation expectations; recession; central banks behind the curve playing catch-up; energy and food crisis
How Far Will the Fed Go with Rate Hikes?
The Fed is expected to hike interest rates again this month. How high will the Fed Funds rate go in this cycle? How far can the Fed go without hurting the US economy? What lessons can we learn from previous Fed hiking cycles? A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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00:00 Introduction
01:57 How high will the rates go?
05:00 What could bring about the end of the hiking cycle?
06:02 What makes this cycle of rate hikes so special?
#fedratehikes #inflation #recession
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Stagflation: Useful Lessons from the 70s | David Woo
Inflation is at levels last seen during the Great Inflation of the 1970s. What are the similarities and differences between then and now? Is stagflation a foregone conclusion? What does it mean for stock market valuation? A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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00:00 Introduction
01:16 What caused inflation in the 70s
05:33 What about inflation today?
07:59 What is the bottom-line for stocks?
#stagflation #inflation #stockmarket
#moneygame
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