China's loss is India's gain? | David Woo
David Woo on BBC Radio. A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#china #india #economics
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War, debt, inflation, Age of Gold
War, debt & inflation have become fixtures in a world defined by the intensifying power struggle between the unipolar vs the multipolar world. In this new geopolitical and economic paradigm, gold will benefit from lower substitutability between precious metals and other safe haven assets. The Ukraine war is a proxy war between the US & Russia, and Washington has belatedly come to the conclusion that a Ukrainian defeat will deal a major blow to the US hegemony. Washington seems to have also decided that it will do whatever it takes to stop/slow China's ascent as a technology competitor. The cost of containing China and defeating Russia will be high and the deal that emerged from the debt ceiling crisis shows that debt sustainability is not a top priority for Washington in a time of war. The decision by the Bank of Japan to drag its feet over normalizing interest rates tells us that inflation will not be not a priority for Washington for much longer as higher interest rates would only accelerate the coming of a real debt crisis. Gold is also benefiting from diversification out of the dollar. China buying up gold is set to continue as US China relations worsen and geopolitical risks proliferate. David Woo, a former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew. Find out his gold price prediction.
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#investing #gold #geopolitics
3
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Debt Ceiling: Will Republicans Waste A Good Crisis? | David Woo
The moment of truth for the US debt ceiling crisis is fast approaching. Will Biden McCarthy reach an agreement before the debt ceiling deadline to avoid a default or will Biden invoke the 14th amendment and trigger a constitutional crisis? What does the debt ceiling crisis tell us about the debate over discretionary vs mandatory spending in America? What is the importance of the debt limit for the power struggle between the unipolar vs the multipolar world? Why is the US ranked so low in the Democracy index 2023 and the freedom house 2023 survey? How is the extreme political polarization in the United States affecting the functioning of American democracy and the ability of the country to make important decisions? When does it become too late for the US to restore its debt sustainability? How should you be investing your money right now?
David Woo, a former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist, tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#debtceiling #useconomy #investing
3
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Why the US does not want Erdogan to win | David Woo
Washington Post calls it the most important election in the world in 2023? The New York Times calls it the biggest election of the year. What makes the 2023 Turkey election so important for the world? What will be the the outcome of the Turkey runoff election between President Erdogan and his challenger Kilicdaroglu to be held on May 28? What does this election mean for the battle between the unipolar vs multipolar world? Which candidate is Biden rooting for and which Putin would like to see win? What is the truth about the Turkey economy 2023? Can it escape the middle-income trap? Can Turkey play a part in ending the Ukraine war? David Woo, a former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist, tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#turkey #erdoğan #geopolitics
4
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Why Biden badly needs a win in Ukraine? | David Woo
The 2024 US election is still 18 months away, but it is starting to exert its influence on the world stage. The performance of the US economy will be critical for the Biden reelection, but the debt ceiling has eliminated the possibility of any fiscal stimulus. The Biden campaign understands well it is only a question of how much US fiscal policy will tighten and whether the economy can avoid a recession in 2024. An important recent poll shows voters have greater confidence in the management of the economy by Trump. This means the Ukraine war could prove pivotal for the 2024 us presidential election. With the emergence of Robert Kennedy Junior as an anti-war candidate, Biden cannot afford to allow the war to drag on. He needs a quick Ukrainian victory to justify the massive support the US has given to Kiev to keep it in the war. A Ukrainian defeat will be viewed as a defeat of the US led unipolar world and will make Biden vulnerable to attacks from both sides of the US political spectrum. How will Biden's political considerations influence Zelensky's and Putin's strategies in the battlefield in the coming weeks? What is the worse case scenario for the world and financial markets? David Woo, a former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist and IMF economist, tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#ukraine #2024elections #biden
11
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Sudan: Can US-China strategic competition bring peace?
A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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Debt Ceiling 2023: America's Necessary Evil? | David Woo
The debt ceiling 2023 deadline has been brought forward by lower-than-expected tax receipts in April and Wall Street is starting to brace for a potential us default. As the debt clocks runs down, can Republicans and Democrats find a compromise in the fiscal brinksmanship to avert disaster? Who will blink first over the debt ceiling? Why is the negotiation over the debt ceiling a preview of the 2024 elections? How does the US debt to gdp ratio compare to other countries including the brics? Which countries have been most negatively affected by the Russia Ukraine war? Why is the debt ceiling a necessary evil for the US as the issuer of the world's reserve currency? Can Washington restore debt sustainability before it is too late? A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#investing #economics #politics
1
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Global North and Global South at War? | David Woo
The battle of the unipolar vs the multipolar world is no longer just about the US China rivalry but is increasingly pitting the Global North against the Global South. The Ukraine war and the Russia sanctions have politicized the global north and global south divide. The new strategic competition between the global north and global south has already resulted in a profound change in the pattern of international trade. In particular, the Global South has become an even bigger creditor of the Global North. If this becomes a lasting by-product of the global realignment, it will have important implications for long-term investing, not to mention the US hegemony and the dollar hegemony. David Woo, a former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist and IMF economist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#investing #geopolitics #uschina
00:00 Introduction
01:14 Global north vs global south: who is winning?
05:01 How is the global realignment changing the world economy
4
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Can Apple Save the Dollar Hegemony? | David Woo
The Secretary of US Treasury Janet Yellen admitted last week that the Russia sanctions could undermine the US dollar hegemony. The weaponization of the dollar by the Biden administration in the war between the unipolar vs multipolar world, between globalism vs nationalism, is pushing the global south to search for an alternative to the dollar. Last week, Brazilian president Lula da Silva called for an end to the dollar's trade dominance. Meanwhile, both the US current account deficit and the US net international investment position are deteriorating at an alarming pace. Will the king dollar, the most visible symbol of the us hegemony, survive the growing global north and south divide? Why the US dollar so strong? How is Silicon Valley, more specifically America's big tech monopolies, propping up the dollar. How will the rivalry between the dollar vs yuan end? Can Silicon Valley save the dollar from the reckless policies of the Neocons?
David Woo, a former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist, tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#usdollar #russiaukrainewar #uschina
7
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Brazil: Can China Deliver for Lula Again? | David Woo
The high-profile visit of Brazilian President Lula da Silva in China this week could not have been better received by the financial market, with ibovespa rallying 5%. Under Lula's first term, the BRazil and China trade increased by 20 times and China overtook the US as Brazil's largest trading partner. This helped Brazil become the 8th largest economy in the world and helped pay for Lula’s ambitious welfare programs that lifted 20 million Brazilians out of poverty. As Lula embarks on his historic second term, he is looking to China once again. But this time Lula needs China to do more than buy soybeans and iron ore. This time he needs his old friend to help him transform the Brazilian economy. Can China deliver for Lula again? What did Lula mean when he said “Brazil is back”? What does Lula’s return to power mean for the Global North and South divide and the unipolar vs the multipolar world fight? What does Lula want to do about the dollar reserve status or the Russia Ukraine war? Will Lula preserve the reforms of his predecessors and push through new ones? Will Brazil become less or even more polarized under his watch? What is the outlook for Brazil growth and Brazil inflation in 2023 and beyond? Should you be investing in Brazil right now?
David Woo, a former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist, tells it as it is. In this video, he interviews 3 well known Brazil experts to discuss the upside and the downside risks for Brazil in the coming months and years.
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00:00 Introduction
01:54 Will Lula make Brazil great?
03:05 Lula goes to China
06:21 Brail is back?
13:00 Lucky Lula
18:27 Brazil needs reforms
27:27 Lula the pragmatist
38:46 Divided Brazil - political polarization
40:28 Will Lula have a good year?
#brazil #lula #china
72
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Soft, Hard, or No Landing? | David Woo
The US stock market rally following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has been driven by growing expectations of a soft landing for the US economy -- credit tightening and tighter financial conditions will slow the economy enough to force the Fed to stop hiking interest rates but not enough to bring on a recession. With the relationship between bond yield and stock market reaching extreme levels, what could go wrong with the soft landing scenario? What about the fact that both the US labor market and core services inflation ex housing have remained strong? What about the fact that Jerome Powell seems less concerned about the banking crisis than the market? What will we learn from First Republic Bank next week when it releases its Q1 results? If a no landing scenario is more likely than a soft landing scenario, what about the probability of a hard landing scenario? Did you know that the Trump indictment might increase the risk of a debt ceiling crisis? Did you know that the Ukraine war is set to escalate as we head into the spring and could lead to a potential direct confrontation between Putin and Nato? Did you know that a potential military conflict between Israel and Iran will likely send oil price sharply higher? Why do so many professional investors consider the stock market overpriced? David Woo, a former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist, tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#stockmarket #investing #ukraine
3
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Putin in Ukraine: Waiting for Zelensky to make a mistake
What does Russia's fiscal conservatism say about Putin's strategy in Ukraine? Is the encirclement of Bakhmut a prelude to a major Russian offensive or is Putin digging in for a long war? In other words, is Putin playing offense or defense? What is his game plan? Who has the staying power in the Russia-Ukraine war: Putin or Zelensky? Will the changing international public opinion about the war help Putin get around the sanctions and retain support at home? To what extent will the need of Blinken and Nuland to show that American support for Ukraine is delivering results in the war shape Putin's war strategy? What will the positions of Trump and DeSantis on the Ukraine war influence Putin's next move? David Woo, a former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#russiaukrainewar #putin #strategy
ucrania
9
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Banking Crisis: Who's to blame and what to do? I David Woo
A banking crisis has broken out in the US, after Washington spent a decade strengthening banking regulations. Who's to blame? The banks themselves, the Federal Reserve, the short-sellers, banking supervision or the FDIC? What does the fall of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank say about US banks in general? Could the banks in aggregate have hedged their interest rate risk? Should we be concerned about the unrealized losses of the bank's holdings of US government bonds? What does the improving net interest margin of the banking system say about the health of the banks? What should the US government do to stop bank runs right now and to avoid full blown financial contagion? What should be done to save the regional banks like the First Republic Bank, Zions Bank and Pacific Western Bank? Is a recession now inevitable? Will the banking crisis force the Federal Reserve to give up its fight against inflation? What about UBS and its takeover of Credit Suisse? What does the banking crisis mean for the stock market? How should you be investing your money right now? David Woo, a former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#bankingcrisis #federalreserve #interestrates
00:00 Introduction
00:41 Who's to blame for the banking crisis?
01:05 Banking regulations too weak?
03:08 The banks' own fault?
04:59 The Fed's (mis)guidance?
07:58 Uninformed investors?
09:59 Supervisors dropped the ball
11:46 So what now?
David Woo Unbound
6
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Global South: The Iran Saudi deal is the best weapon against US hegemony | David Woo
Iran and Saudi Arabia, sworn enemies and leaders of the two opposing branching of Islam, reached a peace agreement brokered not by the US but by China. In the unipolar vs multipolar world conflict, the enemy of my enemy has become my best friend. To counter the US containment policy, China is working to strengthen the unity of Global South countries that believe they will be next if the US wins the Russia Ukraine war. Is peace is the best weapon to counter the US hegemony? Is the Iran Saudi deal durable? Will it help end the war in Yemen and the Lebanese crisis? How are the Iranian protests changing the calculation of Iran's clerical rulers? Will the US try to defend the unipolar world by sabotaging the Iran Saudi deal to regain its influence in the Middle East? Does the deal make it more or less likely that Israel will launch a preemptive attack on the Iranian nuclear program? Will China succeed in brokering a deal between Russia and Ukraine? How will the US China rivalry reshape the global south? Will Saudi Arabia be the next member of the BRICS group? David Woo, a former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#globalsouth #uschina #russiaukrainewar
00:00 Introduction
01:14 A new Middle East?
04:07 Peace or war?
07:43 Will Israel bomb Iran?
08:21 China's moment in the sun
12
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How India is tilting the global balance of power
In 2022, India overtook China as the world most populous country and surpassed the UK to become the 5th largest economy. The US has placed India at the center of its strategy to detach global supply chains from China. In the last financial year, India attracted its highest ever foreign direct investment inflows. What will India and Modi do with this once in a lifetime opportunity? What is India's biggest asset in the geopolitical re-alignment of the world? What is the outlook for the India US relations, the India China relations and the India Russia relations? What role will India play in the power struggle between the global north and global south, between the unipolar vs multipolar world, and between globalism and nationalism? David Woo is a former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist who has the reputation of telling it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#india #indian #modi
00:00 Introduction
01:37 India's once in a lifetime opportunity
04:13 Democracy has become an asset
05:37 India's bureaucracy
07:13 Made in India?
08:50 Modi as India's best ever Prime Minister?
adani
2
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Israel headed towards civil war? | David Woo & Gadi Taub
Israel is facing the biggest political crisis in decades as the new Netanyahu government embarks on a judicial reform that it says will save Israeli democracy from judicial overreach. The opposition parties say the reforms are anti-democratic and vow to do whatever it takes to stop the government. Israel protest that has broken out across the country is pitting the right against the left in a fight that is tearing at the fabric of Israel society. The Israeli shekel has been in sharp dive and some economists are warning of a pending economic crisis of the start-up nation. David Woo is a former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist known for his provocative but often prescient calls. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew. In this video, he is joined by Gadi Taub, one of the most well-known conservative voices in Israel, to talk about the Israel judicial reform and the Israel protest: what is it all about and how it is likely to end. Is civil war inevitable? What are the best case and the worst case scenarios? How serious are the terrorist attacks Israel today?
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#israel #economics #democracy
aharon barak Israel protest
69
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China: Why the housing market is China's achilles heel | David Woo
US China rivalry will extend into stock market performance in 2023. The US stock market outperformed the Chinese stock market in 8 out of the past 10 years. However, 2023 was supposed to be different: Between last November and this January, the Chinese stock market outperformed the US stock market by a whopping 40%. Wall Street consensus was that while the US was heading into a recession, the China economy was going to take off following the lifting of the lockdowns. If the biggest risk to the US stock market is higher inflation and interest rates, what is the biggest risk facing the Chinese stock market in 2023? What is the outlook for the Chinese housing market? Is there a Chinese housing bubble? With slowing Chinese export, will the Chinese consumers rise to the occasion? How will the Russia Ukraine war affect the relative performance of the US and the Chinese stock market in 2023? A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#uschina #stockmarketnews #china
China stock market news.
5
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Recession: How to predict it?
Wall Street's 2023 recession forecast has been called into question by a string of stronger-than-expected data. Why is the US economy defying the most aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes in decades? What is fueling the strong labor market and retail sales? Why has credit card delinquency stayed low despite the surge in borrowing cost? Why hasn't the housing market gone bust? What does the loose financial conditions mean for inflation and interest rates? Is the strong data bullish or bearish for the stock market? What will it take to get a recession? How should you be investing your money right now?
A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#investing #recession #inflation
Unmasking the Global Currency War: What Does it Take to Take on the King Dollar?
The US Dollar, after reaching an all-time high last October, has been struggling lately. Why has the king dollar lost its appeal? Why are countries diversifying their foreign exchange reserves away from the dollar? Is the dollar's reserve currency status at risk? Is the Fed done hiking rates? What about the coming debt ceiling crisis? In the US China rivalry, is the renminbi ready to challenge the dollar as the world's primary reserve currency? What about hegemony gold and crypto? Does the war path Biden has embarked on to defend the American hegemony mean for the USD? Did you know that at the heart of the tech war is a war over reserve currency status. In the struggle between the unipolar vs the multipolar world, who will be the winner of the global currency war? Will the bearish consensus US dollar forecast prove to be correct? A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#investing #currency #usd
1
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American Hegemony Gone Rogue | David Woo
The rise of American hegemony at the end of WW2 ushered in a period of unparalleled growth and prosperity for the world. However, over the Ukraine war, the Biden administration has shown itself to be more interested in protecting the American hegemony than the pursuit of peace and stability for the world. The increasingly reckless role the US is playing in the Russia-Ukraine war has to be the greatest risk to the stock market in 2023. The only good news is that with Wall Street in total denial of this reality, hedging this risk is at least very cheap. Is America still a force for good? What should be your hedging strategy if the Neocons driving American foreign policy right now decides to go all in? A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#russiaukrainewar #stockmarketnews #biden
6
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US Hegemony: “To be America's Friend is Fatal"
Four years into the US-China trade war, Washington has shown a disregard for the economic interests of its most important allies, while Beijing has been using its trade policy to strengthen its allies and build a strategic alliance. Kissinger famously said: "To be America's enemy is dangerous but to be America's friend is fatal." In US vs China, can Biden prevail over Xi while the war takes its toll on the economies of Europe and Japan? Why does the US have so much at stake in the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war? What does all this means for the stock market? A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#uschina #russiaukrainewar #tradewar
1
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Debt ceiling 2023: blow up China or blow up the national debt? | David Woo
The day of reckoning for the US debt explosion is finally here. With US federal debt now at $31 trillion, Washington is now spending more money paying interest on its borrowing than the combined research and development budget of the US private and public sectors. Wall Street is starting to worry about another debt ceiling crisis that in 2011 cost the US its AAA rating and tanked the stock market. Americans will decide this summer whether they wants to diffuse the debt bomb or embark on a costly arms race with China and Russia. The decision will have huge repercussions. A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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3
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Dark Tankers: World Economy’s Unsung Heros | David Woo
The world economy would have gone into a recession already if it weren't for the dark tankers that are helping Russia to evade western sanctions. What are dark tankers? Which countries are involved? How much money is being made? Why aren't the US and the EU enforcing the sanctions? What will happen to oil price if Russia were to launch its long awaited offensive in Ukraine? A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#investing #recession #russiaukraineconflict
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Making money in 2023: 3 Macro Predictions | David Woo
Macro investing was the only winning investment strategy in 2022. Was it a fluke or a harbinger of what's to come? What are the key macro themes in 2023? Is a recession unavoidable? What do China, Russia and the Federal Reserve have in store for Wall Street? How can you profit from the opportunities that these themes present? A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist with a proven track record give his predictions 2023. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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00:00 Intro
01:49 Prediction #1: China to reach herd immunity in Jan
05:16 Prediction #2: Russia to launch major offensive in Jan/Feb
08:47 Prediction #3: Stagflation to become a realty
11:52: Can we predict the future?
#investing #inflation #stocks
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US-China Manufacturing War: Unintended Consequences
It is war. Reshoring of jobs out of China back to the US hit a record high in 2022. The trend is expected to continue in 2023. Reshoring has delayed the coming US recession but it is keeping the Federal Reserve on a tightening path. The reconfiguration of the global supply chain may be good news for American manufacturing workers but it is bad news for stock and home prices. What are the unintended consequences of the US-China manufacturing war? A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#tradewar #inflation #interestrates