Dealing with China: Biden versus Trump
What did the Biden Xi meeting last week achieve in terms of US China relations? What does the 2024 election mean for how the US will deal with China in the future? Trump started the trade war with China but what is the difference between his approach to dealing with China versus Biden's? Which approach would benefit the US more? How did Trump succeed in wrestling major concessions from China on non tariff barriers, non trade barriers, and intellectual property china? Will Biden's China tech sanctions stop China from reaching chip independence? What does the Huawei mate 60 pro tell us about the potential pitfall of American industrial policy? David Woo, a former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist, tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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How powerful is the pro Israel Jewish lobby? #israel #geopolitics #news
How powerful is the pro-Israel Jewish lobby in the US? AIPAC, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, is the biggest pro-Israel Jewish lobby in America. AIPAC donated $17.4 million towards pro-Israel candidates running for Congress in 2022. Sounds like a lot but it is less than 0.2% of the total $9 billion that Republicans and Democrats raised for the 2022 election cycle. A drop in the ocean. You should also know that American Jews are as divided as non-Jews when it comes to Israel. Only 17% of American Jews support Israeli settlements in the west bank. The result is that political giving by Jewish Americans with opposing attitudes towards Israel often cancel each other out. For example, the groups behind the recent pro-Hamas Israel-bashing protests in New York received more than $15 million from George Soros, a Jew, since 2016. Jewish Americans are big political donors to the Democratic Party. Yet, you have to be very naïve to think that US policies under Obama and Biden are pro-Israel. Unless of course you think turning over $200bn to Iran, Israel’s arch enemy and the backer of Hamas and Hezbollah, is pro-Israel. David Woo, a former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist, tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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121
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America Misses Trump?
A new Times/Siena 2024 presidential election poll shows Trump leading Biden comfortably in 5 out of the 6 swing states that Trump lost in 2020. Moreover, Trump leads the Republican field by more than 40 points. Why is Trump doing so well when he is facing 91 felony charges in 4 indictments? What does his current lead in the polls tell us about the political maturity of American voters and the influence of mainstream media on public opinions? Why is Biden not benefiting from the strong US economic data? What can explain the divergence between the US consumer confidence and the performance of the US economy? Why do so many Americans think the economy is in a recession and why are so many of them so concerned about high interest rates? David Woo, a former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist, tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
91
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4
comments
Declassified: Inside Mossad's covert op to stop Iran from going nuclear
If the Ukraine war is a proxy war between the US and Russia, then the Gaza war is a proxy war between Iran and Israel. For the past 20 years, Iran has repeated threatened to wipe Israel off the map and has built a ring of fire consisting of 19 armed groups around Israel that include Hamas and Hezbollah. Israel perceives Iran as an existential threat and the Mossad , Israel's famed intelligence agency, has devoted its best resources to stop Iran's nuclear program. In this video, we talk to Ilan Evyatar about his new book Target Tehran that provides a detailed account of how the Mossad has set back Iran's nuclear program and changed the balance of power in the Middle East. David Woo, a former IMF economist and a top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist, tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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World War 3: Biggest Risks
A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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3
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Biden's Role in the Hamas Attack | David Woo
To understand the motivation for the Hamas attack against Israel on Oct 7 we dissect the global and regional geopolitical forces at work, especially US policy under the Biden administration. We show why the growing US-China rivalry, especially the Biden administration's drive to get even with China in the Middle East, might have compelled Hamas and its backer Iran to move against Israel. Offering the Saudis a partnership to enrich uranium while emboldening Iran to accelerate its nuclear program is a reckless and destabilizing turn in US policy in the Middle East. Who will win the war? We explain why the bar for Hamas is much lower than for Israel. We don't see Hezbollah or Iran entering the war as long as Hamas has the upper hand in the battle in the international court of public opinions. The growing global south and global north divide is claiming more victims this week. David Woo, a former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#geopolitics #israel #hamasattack
19
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1
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Global Racketeering: Big Tech and the King Dollar | David Woo
The dollar rally is accelerating. Why is the dollar so strong? Where is it headed? Is a strong dollar a blessing or will it spell troubles for the world? Why haven't the aggressive interest rates hikes by the Federal Reserve slow the US economy? Why haven't high interest rates pop the stock market bubble and high mortgage rates bring down home prices? Is the monetary policy transmission mechanism broken? Is the breakdown of the relationship between bonds yields and the stock market here to stay? Investors have decided that the Magnificent 7 are still the stocks to buy now. What could prove them wrong? David Woo, a former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist, tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#investing #useconomy #stockmarket
11
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Putin's Secret Weapon to Win the Economic War | David Woo and Jean-Francois Geneste
The war in Ukraine is a contest in technology between the west and Putin's Russia. Over the past 400 years, the west led the world in scientific discovery and technological advancement. Science and technology raised the standard of living of the west above the rest of the world and allowed the west to subjugate and called the shots. Now, the west is locked in a tech war with Russia and China that will decide the fate of the hegemony of the west. But can the west maintain its lead in innovation? What does the arms race between the west, China, and Russia tell us about who has the upper hand? Are political freedom and capitalism still giving the west the edge? We talk to the Jean-Francois Geneste, a former chief scientist of Airbus, to find out. David Woo, a former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist, tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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Useful links:
• https://www.altpropulsion.com/people/jean-francois-geneste/
• https://www.warpa.net/
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10
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Are US consumers tapped out or saving the world economy? | David Woo
The hit song "Rich man North of Richmond" has drawn national attention to the unhappy conditions of working class Americans, but what do economic data say about the reality of US consumers and the US economy? Consumer sentiment index suggests Americans are depressed and that a recession could be just around the corner, but what is keeping US consumers spending and retail sales strong? Are growing credit card debt and declining personal saving rate reasons for concern? How vulnerable is the US economy to a bursting of the tech stocks bubble or a further rise in oil price? Why is strong US consumer confidence the last line of defense of the world economy against the next recession? respond David Woo, a former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist, tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#useconomy #recession
8
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The World in 2024: Recession or Soft Landing? | David Woo
The Wall Street consensus at the start of the year that a US recession was a foregone conclusion could not have been more wrong. Over the past month, big US banks threw in the towel on their recession calls. They are now calling for a soft landing. Will they be proved right this time? What is the latest purchasing manager index tell us about what really is going on with the global economy? Which countries are benefiting from trade diversion and friend shoring? Why is the Ukraine war accelerating Germany deindustrialization? Why has Brexit fail to revive British manufacturing? Why is Italy pulling out the Belt and Road Initiative? What can bring on a US and global recession in 2024? What could drive up oil price even higher and take down the Nasdaq 100 bubble? Can the Federal Reserve come to rescue and achieve a soft landing of the US economy? What does the latest US inflation report tell us about what is going on with US core inflation? David Woo, a former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist, tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#investing #economics #geopolitics
20
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BRICS currency? The ONLY way it can work | David Woo
Should there be a BRICS currency? The question has become an important part of the debate over the future of the international financial architecture. What would Robert Mundell, the father of the euro, say about the readiness of the BRICS to adopt a common currency? Is a BRICS currency necessary for de dollarization? What is the truth about a BRICS gold backed currency? What is the only way it can work? How can an economic and monetary union between China and Russia help the China economy and keep Russia in the Ukraine war? How would a BRICS currency change the rivalry of the global south vs the global north, the unipolar vs the multipolar world? David Woo, a former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist, tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#investing #brics #geopolitics
00:00 Introduction
00:45 Will there be a BRICS currency?
02:15 Does BRICS meet Mundell's 4 conditions?
05:49 Can BRICS have their cake and eat it too?
10:45 Fears of a weaponized dollar
11:44 What should BRICS do?
14:08 Conclusion
10
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BRICS vs G7: Debt Race to the Bottom | David Woo
The casualty of the growing global north and global south divide is globalization. The BRICS expansion and the NATO expansion suggest the polarization of the world is accelerating. Sanctions, trade war, industrial policy, onshoring and friend shoring will lead to higher inflation, higher interest rates, and higher frequency of recession. Higher interest rates in the new global economic equilibrium mean highly indebted countries will have to devote more resources to service their debt as opposed to investing in their future. Which countries are in the worst debt positions and which in the best? Japan, China, France and Canada are the most vulnerable while Saudi Arabia, Mexico , and Russia, with very low debt ratio, are in the strongest position (assuming Russia wins the war in Ukraine and Mexico manages to prevail over crimes). David Woo. a former IMF economist and a top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist, tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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11
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Ukraine: NATO Ally or Political Burden? | David Woo with Steven Myers
No issue today will play a bigger part in shaping the world of tomorrow like the Russia - Ukraine war. No issue today is as divisive and stirs so much emotions like the Russia - Ukraine war. Thanks to propaganda and censorship, intelligent people cannot agree on the basic facts about the war. Why did Russia invade Ukraine? Is Putin’s aim to conquer Ukraine and rebuild the Russian empire? Why was NATO so keen on expansion when so many experts had warned of the risk? Why is the Russian advance in the war so slow? Why hasn’t the Russian air force, the second largest in the world, played a bigger part in the war? How is the Ukrainian counter-offensive really going? What if it does not succeed? Can Biden afford to let Zelensky lose the war? Or will he be forced to cut Zelensky loose with Trump, DeSantis, and Robert Kennedy Junior all committed to ending the war immediately? David dives into these crucial questions with Steven Myers, a US air force veteran, a 4 time CEO, and a three-time member of the State Department's Council on International Economic Policies.
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Useful links:
Steven Myers' Wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_Myers_(CEO)
Steven Myers' USA Today article: https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2023/07/13/ukraine-zelenskyy-options-russia-war-after-nato-summit/70406715007/
Steven Myers' book: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B08DZDHLV7/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_hsch_vapi_tkin_p1_i0
David Woo
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00:00 Introduction
02:03 Is Putin's goal to conquer Ukraine and Europe?
13:14 Why so NATO so keen on enlargement?
17:49 Why has Russian advance been so slow?
26:12 Will NATO get directly involved in the war?
#geopolitics #russiaukrainewar #investing
25
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How the US Lost its AAA Credit Rating #investing #debt
Link to the full video - https://youtu.be/Qxa3fC97dkE
US growth stocks had their worst week since March after Fitch Ratings stripped the US of its AAA credit rating. Janet Yellen called Fitch's decision "arbitrary" and the Biden campaign is already labelling the move as the "Trump downgrade." What drove Fitch to make an enemy of the White House and why did it choose this time of all times to downgrade the US credit rating? Why is the US debt ceiling the only institutional safeguard against fiscal excess and why was the 2023 debt ceiling crisis a complete let-down? What does the Fitch downgrade say about how extreme political polarization is affecting US economic policies? Will the Fitch move embolden fiscal conservatives enough to force another government shutdown in the fall? Will Kevin McCarthy stand up and put up a real fight this time? The US debt clock is ticking and how will stagflation exacerbate debt dynamics. Fiscal stimulus has bought time before the next recession but how much longer will it keep the economy humming before its runs out. David Woo, a former IMF economist and top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist, tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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5
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How the US lost its AAA credit rating | David Woo
US growth stocks had their worst week since March after Fitch Ratings stripped the US of its AAA credit rating. Janet Yellen called Fitch's decision "arbitrary" and the Biden campaign is already labelling the move as the "Trump downgrade." What drove Fitch to make an enemy of the White House and why did it choose this time of all times to downgrade the US credit rating? Why is the US debt ceiling the only institutional safeguard against fiscal excess and why was the 2023 debt ceiling crisis a complete let-down? What does the Fitch downgrade say about how extreme political polarization is affecting US economic policies? Will the Fitch move embolden fiscal conservatives enough to force another government shutdown in the fall? Will Kevin McCarthy stand up and put up a real fight this time? The US debt clock is ticking and how will stagflation exacerbate debt dynamics. Fiscal stimulus has bought time before the next recession but how much longer will it keep the economy humming before its runs out. David Woo, a former IMF economist and top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist, tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#investing #useconomy #debt
00:00 Introduction
00:55 Should you be concerned about US federal debt?
03:27 Why did Fitch downgrade the US?
08:00 High deficit in an economic expansion?
12:13 The bottom line
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Chinese Economy: Reform or Die
The link to the video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WELVZWq6XUo
The teaching of the Chinese philosopher Mencius about the right of people to rebel against unjust government has kept Chinese rulers on their toes for more than 2000 years. The political legitimacy of the CCP depends on continued speedy convergence of China's standard of living to that of developed countries. While urbanization promises to unleash further improvement in labor productivity, the Chinese economy faces 3 growing constraints: limited scope to grow global market share, limited scope for further balance sheet expansion, increasingly limited ability to access foreign technologies. Under Xi Jinping China has moved to favor state control over private entrepreneurship. If China were to escape the middle income trap, he only way is to accelerate economic reform and deregulation to unleash the private sector. Does Xi's have what it takes? Can reform help US-China relations? It is reform or die.
A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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7
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A Pot of Gold in Ukraine?
The full video link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hO-1vfoNrL4
Did you know that the price of Ukraine government bonds have risen by 50% over the past two months, since the beginning of the Ukraine's counter-offensive. Is it because Wall Street thinks Putin is losing the war, especially after the mutiny of the Wagner Group? Or is it because the market is expecting unlimited US Ukraine support after the NATO summit? Can game theory, a tool for analyzing strategic interaction between multiple players that is designed for making predictions of its outcome, help us filter out the noise and understand what is driving Putin, Biden Zelensky? What does the War of attrition game theory tell us about the strategies being deployed by the two sides? Is there a pot of gold in the war-ravaged Ukraine? Trade of the week or a disaster waiting to happen?
David Woo, a former IMF economist and top-ranked Wall Street global macro investment strategist, tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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3
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Chinese Economy: Reform or Die | David Woo
The teaching of the Chinese philosopher Mencius about the right of people to rebel against unjust government has kept Chinese rulers on their toes for more than 2000 years. The political legitimacy of the CCP depends on continued speedy convergence of China's standard of living to that of developed countries. While urbanization promises to unleash further improvement in labor productivity, the Chinese economy faces 3 growing constraints: limited scope to grow global market share, limited scope for further balance sheet expansion, increasingly limited ability to access foreign technologies. Under Xi Jinping China has moved to favor state control over private entrepreneurship. If China were to escape the middle income trap, he only way is to accelerate economic reform and deregulation to unleash the private sector. Does Xi's have what it takes? Can reform help US-China relations? It is reform or die. David Woo, a former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist, tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#china #economics #investing
00:00 Introduction
00:46 Political legitimacy
02:51 Chinese economy under the CCP
04:45 China's middle income trap
06:40 Urbanization as growth engine
11:04 Housing bubble
12:37 The bottom line
9
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Europe's Deindustrialization: Ukraine War's Ripple Effect | David Woo
The fully recovery of the euro exchange rate to pre-Ukraine war level is a testament of the dramatic reduction of Europe's energy dependence on Russia over the past 18 months. Massive fiscal subsidies and transfers have masked the long-term cost of this reduced dependence and allowed the European Central Bank to raise interest rates to a 22-year high. Yet, it would be a mistake to think that Europe's energy crisis is over. The increase in the relative energy costs faced by Europe compared to the Americas and Asia is seriously undercutting the competitiveness of Europe's industries. Companies are leaving Germany and heading for China and the US. Examples include BASF in China, Siemans in Sinapore, and Volkswagen in Canada. The Deindustrialization Europe is happening and could one day undo the Euro. The decision by European politicians like Olaf Scholz to blindly follow the US regarding the Ukraine war is incomprehensible. Who blew up the Nord Stream pipelines? David Woo, a former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist ,tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#germany #ukraine #investing
00:00 Introduction
00:46 Why has the euro been doing well
04:45 Why Europe will pay a big price
08:32 Why Germany will suffer the most
10:55 Why Germany needs Russian energy
6
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Putin Unleashed: A Game Theory Analysis of the Ukraine Conflict | David Woo
So much has happened in the Ukraine War over the past month. In early June, Ukraine launched its long awaited counter-offensive. Two weeks later, Russia's Wagner Group staged an open rebellion. On July 7, Biden said he was sending cluster bombs to Ukraine. On July 10, Erdogan agreed to clear the way for Sweden’s NATO membership. Two days later, a day after the NATO summit, Biden declared Putin’s "already lost the war". So much is happening, not to mention the propaganda, that it is difficult to understand what really is going on. Can game theory, a tool for analyzing strategic interaction between multiple players that is designed for making predictions of its outcome, help us filter out the noise? What does the War of attrition game theory tell us about the strategies being deployed by the two sides? Biden hit out at Putin's "craven lust for power and land", but why are the US and its allies determined to keep the proxy war against Russia going to the last Ukrainian? What will Putin do now? What will he do before the BRICS summit next month? David Woo, a former IMF economist and top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist, tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#geopolitics #ukraine #nato
7
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The French Riots: Europe on the Brink? | David Woo
What is the root cause of the French riots? Surely it is not the Nahel shooting? There is a far more complex story than one of French police racism. Do you know what is the difference in standard living between French descents of immigrants from Maghreb and their parents? Do you know how the Arab Spring influenced the outcome of the Brexit vote and the unintended consequences of the British decision not to intervene in the Syrian civil war? Do you know why eastern Libya has become the most popular jumping off point for refugees and migrants to reach Europe? Did you know that 59% of Syrian refugees in Europe are in Germany? Did you know that Africa will add a billion people in less than 30 years? Did you know that climate change has affected Africa more than any other regions in the world? Do you know that the French riots have propelled Marine Le Pen and Germany ADf in the polls? What will Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz do to save the European Union before the next general elections in France and Germany? David Woo, a former IMF economist and Wall Street investment strategist, tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#france #europeanunion #refugees
00:00 Introduction
01:15 Arab Spring and Europe's Migrant Crisis
04:38 Africa's challenges: debt and climate change
07:39 From Libya to Italy
09:54 Not immigration but integration
12:45 The rise of the far right
112
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Revenge of the Global South | David Woo
Which were the best performing currencies in the world in the first half of 2023? You can be sure that it was neither the US dollar nor the Chinese RMB. The Global South took the top 3 spots in the ranking of the world's 20 leading currencies. And what does this tell us about the changing fortunes of the Global South in the intensifying power struggle between the multipolar vs the unipolar world? What is it about Mexico, Brazil, and Chile that their exports are growing while their inflation is under control? How are they benefiting from taking a neutral position on the Ukraine war? How is the souring of US China relations driving nearshoring mexico? How is Huawei helping to increase China Latin America influence? A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#geopolitics #globalsouth #economics
Lula Obrador Boric
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The Dark Side of the Tech Stock Rally | David Woo
Halfway through 2023, the US stock market is, once again, beating the stock market of the rest of the world, thanks to a 40% rally in US tech stocks. Amazingly, 90% of the 15% rally in S&P 500 this year so far has come from gains in just 7 technology stocks. To what extent America owes its economic hegemony to the global dominance of its big tech? And to what extent America’s big tech owe their global dominance to the willingness and ability of the US government to protect and further their interest? And what happens when big tech and one political party decide to join forces? With this partnership, what chance does the multipolar camp and the Global South have to level the playing fields with the America? Did you know that the spectacular performance of the stock prices of Apple, Microsoft, and Google this year may be due to the greatly diminished chance of big tech antitrust proposals ever becoming law? How important is big tech lobbying influencing policies in Washington? To what extent is the US China tech rivalry is based on free competition by either side? A former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#investing #techstocks #geopolitics
Apple stock analysis
Google stock analysis
Microsoft stock news
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Is China a Bigger Threat to USA than Japan was in the 1980s? | David Woo
The US hegemony has faced only two serious economic challengers over the past 50 years: Japan in the 1980s and China today. Often forgotten these days is the fact that by the end of the 1980s, most Americans sawJapan's economy as posing a greater threat to the US than the Soviet military. What is in common between Japan then and China today. What else did they share other than their industrial policy and intellectual property strategy? How important was IP theft in winning the technology race and semiconductor war to escape the middle income trap? What are the similarities and differences between how the US responded to the rise of Japan and to China's challenge to the unipolar world today? On the eve of Blinken's visit to China, is China or artificial intellectual a bigger threat to the American economy? David Woo, a former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew. In this video, he speaks to Scott Foster, a Stanford graduate and a tech analyst living in Japan since the 1970s to talk US Japan relations, US China rivalry, and the tech war.
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#technology #geopolitics #china
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BRICS vs G7: Who's beating inflation? | David Woo
The twin inflation shocks of the past 3 years - supply chain disruptions associated with the lockdowns and a spike in commodity prices as the result of the Ukraine War - have largely dissipated. However, inflation in most countries, especially advanced economies, is declining only gradually, prompting concerns about a wage price spiral. Interestingly, G7 countries have had less success in bringing down inflation than BRICS countries. Indeed, with both Canada inflation and Australia inflation coming in stronger than expected last month, the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia were forced to raise interest rates again. What can the G7 countries learn from the BRICS countries? What is the outlook of the US economy versus the Chinese economy and the Indian economy? What does it mean for the power struggle of the unipolar vs multipolar world and the global north vs the global south? David Woo, a former top-ranked Wall Street global macro strategist, tells it as it is. You may not agree with everything he says but he will make you reassess everything you thought you knew.
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#investing #inflation #brics
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