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Robert Bryce: How the Green Promise is Making the West Poorer
In a not-to-be-missed episode, Tom Bodrovics welcomes a new guest, Robert Bryce. Robert is an author, journalist, film producer, and public speaker.
Together, they delve into energy issues as Bryce voices his concerns over the fragility of the electric grid and the potential consequences of underestimating the value of a reliable energy supply. He recounts personal experiences with power disruptions and highlights significant contrasts between developed countries' energy abundance and challenges faced in places like South Africa and Beirut. The discussion centers on the 2021 Texas blackout, which shed light on renewable energy's role during the crisis and its limitations when needed most. Bryce underscores the danger of making the electric grid overly reliant on non-base load power. He advocates for recognizing natural gas's crucial role in securing energy stability during inclement weather. He also criticizes initiatives like Michael Bloomberg's Beyond Carbon Campaign, as they could potentially worsen the grid's vulnerability and threaten national energy security.
Robert raises concerns about inaccurate information and analysis regarding the energy landscape, specifically concerning hydrogen being misrepresented as a renewable resource by certain media outlets. He laments the negative impact of these misleading narratives on public understanding and decision-making processes. They also discuss challenges of the hydrogen fuel cycle and why it's more of a transportation carrier system than an energy source.
Robert discusses how modern energy policy is regressive in nature and its outsized impact on poverty and the wealth gap. He argues that these policies, including those related to climate change and electric vehicles, increase electricity costs disproportionately for low-income and middle-class households despite Democrats' advocacy for the public's welfare. Robert believes that energy affordability should be a bipartisan concern due to its critical role in the overall economy. He also criticizes the media's portrayal of the global energy transition, pointing out that developing countries like China and India are not adhering to the same goals as the West, focusing instead on building coal power plants to meet their immediate energy needs.
Robert advocates for pragmatism and a clear-eyed approach to energy production and consumption. He shares his skepticism towards renewable energy's low power density sources, such as wind and solar, and champions high power density sources like natural gas and nuclear. Robert also criticizes the corporatism surrounding renewable energy development and emphasizes the importance of understanding the realities of energy needs in light of increasing demand from developing countries.
Lastly, they explore the challenges of rapidly transitioning to electric vehicles (EVs) from a fossil fuel-based system. Despite promises, EVs are not yet capable of replacing oil as a critical commodity for commerce due to the enormous energy consumption in the U.S. transportation sector. The limitations and challenges of batteries, including their energy density, material intensity, and dependence on Chinese supply chains, are discussed. The Biden administration's energy policies are criticized for making the auto sector dependent on components from overseas while stifling the development of oil and coal-based power sources. Financial losses incurred by EV manufacturers like Ford and Rivian are highlighted, questioning the rationality and pragmatism of current industrial and energy policies.
Robert encourages people to become informed on these topics and to explain the situation to friends and family. It's important for people to understand the world's reliance on energy and why it's crucial to humanity.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:50 - Taking Energy for Granted
3:15 - Texas Blackouts - Causes
5:13 - GRID Stability & NatGas
7:03 - Media Accuracy & Bias
11:33 - EROI & Alternatives
14:50 - Fuel Cell Technology
16:03 - Energy Policy & Poverty
19:18 - Energy "Transitions" Charts
22:33 - Germany Coal Use
25:09 - Climate is a Concern
27:18 - Subsidies & Tax Credits
33:44 - EVs and Real Impacts
41:00 - Electric Motorcycles
41:52 - The 10000$ Question
44:47 - Commodities & Debasement
51:45 - Peak Oil Thoughts
55:05 - Efficiencies & Plastic
58:48 - Incentives & Nuclear
1:04:15 - Educate Yourself
1:07:02 - JuiceTheSeries & Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/pwrhungry
Website https://juicetheseries.com
Website: http://powerhungrypodcast.com/
Website: https://robertbryce.substack.com
Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/robertbryce
Robert Bryce is a Texas-based author, journalist, film producer, and podcaster. The host of the Power Hungry Podcast, Bryce has been writing about energy, power, innovation, and politics for more than 30 years. His articles have appeared in a myriad of publications including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Forbes, Time, Austin Chronicle, and Sydney Morning Herald. His sixth book, A Question of Power: Electricity and the Wealth of Nations, was published in 2020 by PublicAffairs. He is also the producer of a feature-length documentary film: Juice: How Electricity Explains the World, which is available on iTunes, Amazon Prime, and numerous other streaming platforms. He lives in Austin with his wife, Lorin, who is an art teacher, photographer, and master potter.
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Drew Rathgeber: The Gold & Silver Industry - Who Wins, Who Loses, And Who Really Benefits
Tom welcomes back experienced trader and creator of ProGoldTrader, Drew Rathgeber to explore issues within the Gold and Silver industry. Drew shares his industry journey, starting in spot markets 20 years ago and transitioning to futures in 2006. He emphasizes regulation's importance, particularly for consumer protections and audits.
They discuss problems like excessive spreads exploiting elderly clients and the need for education. Drew shares his views on social media influencers and their good and bad aspects. The conversation also covers spot markets versus regulated futures markets.
Drew talks about Monex, a company offering the Atlas precious metals investment program. This financing mechanism targeted unsophisticated investors and generated revenue through high fees on trades, resulting in many millions in losses for customers.
They discuss investing in physical gold versus futures contracts, with smaller investments favoring physical gold due to absence of counterparty risk. The conversation touches upon issues surrounding precious metals investments using retirement funds, specifically Roth IRAs and 401K programs. He stresses the importance of understanding spreads and fees in these transactions.
Drew discusses a retired lady and why she was disqualified from opening a futures trading account. Drew emphasizes the importance of understanding risks involved in trading, especially with leverage positions. They briefly touch on contract sizes and risk management strategies, including removing market and volatility risks, using options for downside protection, and being cautious during uncertain times like Fed announcements. He stresses the importance of staying informed and managing risks based on individual comfort levels.
Timestamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:57 - Trust & Drew's Background
4:18 - Regulations & Risks
9:22 - Changes in PM Industry
14:39 - History at Monex
19:42 - Fractional Metal Programs?
23:45 - Futures Markets & Leverage
27:40 - Physical Delivery & Spreads
37:08 - Other Programs & Cautions
42:55 - Fraud Risks & Criteria
47:12 - Futures Contract Sizes
50:03 - Managing Risk
52:03 - Investor Behavior 2024
56:40 - Lessons Learned
1:01:42 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Drew Rathgeber emphasizes the importance of consumer protections and education in the Gold and Silver industry.
- He highlights the risks and benefits of investing in precious metals through spot markets versus regulated futures markets.
- Drew shares warnings about high-fee investment schemes that like to 'churn' naive investors.
Guest Links:
Website: https://progoldtrader.com
Email: drathgeber@ProGoldTrader.com
Apply Online: https://progoldtrader.com/open-an-account/
Drew Rathgeber got his start trading spot precious metals at one of the nation's largest bullion dealers in Newport Beach, CA in 2004. Then transitioned to futures in 2006, specializing in precious metals. Now is the owner and president of ProGoldTrader.com, which specializes in trading software and execution designed just for bullion traders.
TRADING FUTURES, OPTIONS ON FUTURES, AND FUTURES SPREADS INVOLVE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL TRADERS AND/OR INVESTORS. PAST PERFORMANCE, WHETHER ACTUAL OR INDICATED BY SIMULATED HISTORICAL TESTS OF STRATEGIES, IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ACCOUNTS CAN AND MAY LOSE MONEY. ONLY GENUINE RISK CAPITAL, MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE, SHOULD BE USED.
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Gary Savage: 13-Year Base in Gold Means Big Moves Ahead
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Gary Savage, a retired entrepreneur and commodity trader, about the current state and future prospects of metals markets, specifically focusing on gold and silver. Savage underscores the importance of considering larger time frames for understanding gold market trends, emphasizing a potential 13-year base pattern in gold and impending breakout. He anticipates gold prices to reach at least $7,000 and potentially $10,000 due to this significant base size. Silver's volatility could lead to larger proportional moves, with expectations of it reaching new all-time highs towards the end of the bull market.
Savage differentiates gold and silver markets based on distinct fundamental drivers, discussing the potential implications of the war cycle, inflation, and recent dollar trend following the Fed's Jackson Hole meeting. He encourages investors to remain attentive for a significant move upwards in metals and advises buying physical gold and silver before the anticipated breakout.
The discussion covers the significance of COT reports as a tool. Gary highlights the potential leverage from miners, but ultimately suggests that physical precious metals could yield greater gains in the long run. He delves into the impact of the upcoming FOMC meeting and the potential for a recession.
Mr. Savage shares his belief in the precious metals sector's potential benefits due to the significant gold breakout, encouraging listeners to maintain a broad perspective despite market fluctuations. He dismisses energy, uranium, Bitcoin, and the stock market for investment purposes, favoring precious metals amid geopolitical tensions that could lead to a possible World War III. Savage concludes by urging listeners to stay focused on the big picture.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:40 - Big Picture on Metals
3:00 - Comparing Silver & Gold
5:12 - Commodities & Metals Diverge
6:37 - Dollar Fundamentals
8:26 - Gold Charts & Cycles
12:19 - Silver Chart & Outlook
15:22 - Trades & Timelines
19:00 - COT Reports Uses?
20:18 - Silver Miners & Leverage
22:40 - Dollar & Other Currencies
24:23 - Fed & Recession?
28:03 - War Cycle & Elections
30:00 - Regression Analysis
33:50 - Metals Sector Divergence
35:35 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Gary Savage highlights a potential 13-year gold base pattern and impending breakout, expecting prices to reach at least $7,000.
- Silver's volatility could lead to larger proportional moves, reaching new all-time highs towards the end of the bull market.
- Significant move upwards in metals, invest in physical gold and silver before the anticipated breakout, and maintain a long-term perspective.
Guest Links
Twitter: https:/twitter.com/garysavage1
Blog: https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgiNs7gCxEvgBE1HHvoOKTQ/videos
Website: https://smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/login/
Gary Savage is a retired entrepreneur living in Las Vegas. He has been investing in stocks and commodities for 15+ years. Gary is a self-made multi-millionaire and attributes his financial success to savvy investments made in owning/selling several businesses, real estate, and, more recently, the stock market. He is also a national Judo, powerlifting, and Olympic weightlifting champion and world record holder. Gary holds national titles in 3 different sports and continues to challenge himself as an avid rock climber, and recently his newest endeavor bowling (two perfect 300 games so far).
Gary's renown as a recognized trading/investment expert in the areas of precious metals, stock market, oil, and currency markets is demonstrated by his numerous internationally published articles in these market areas: Kitco, 24hGold, Gold-Eagle, Investing, 321Gold, Keyport, SilverSeek, TFMetalsReport, FuturesMag, ResourceInvestor, Silver-Phoenix, BayStreetBlog, BeforeItsNews, ETFDailyNews, TalkMarkets, JuniorMiningAnalyst, MarketOracle.UK, SafeHaven, GoldSeek, Mining, CommodityOnline, SilverMarketNewsOnline, StreetWiseReports, and InvestingNews.
Gary publishes the Smart Money Tracker, a daily and weekend market newsletter available online by subscription only, at a very modest price. This subscription-only site provides Gary's in-depth daily commentary and chart analysis of numerous markets, including the stock, precious metals, oil, and currency markets.
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Simon Hunt: Markets, Bonds, and Currencies are Heading for a Last Hurrah as the Risk of War Grows
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back consultant Simon Hunt to delve into the distinctions between Western-oriented and impartial perspectives in global analysis. Their conversation evolves around the potential threats to the West's global supremacy from the BRICS collective, spearheaded by China and Russia. This power transition could result in a loss of control over events and even the likelihood of war should diplomacy falter. The discussion also encompasses America's historic aim to fragment Russia, recent geopolitical strains, and potential clashes in Israel and Iran.
Simon discusses the ongoing geopolitical stressors and their consequences for financial markets. Their discourse centers around the US-Russia confrontation, the influence of the deep state or neoconservatives on foreign policy, and the ramifications for oil prices, copper markets, and US equities and bonds. Simon posits that Russia's reaction to Western antagonisms will be restrained but impactful, potentially triggering a substantial increase in inflation and a readjustment of monetary policy. The conversation also explores the potential repercussions of crises in Ukraine and the Middle East on the global economy.
Simon explores various economic matters, such as demographic problems in both the US and China, the legitimacy of economic statistics, and his views on market trends over the next few years. He suggests that the US economy might be experiencing a recession based on authentic data like deflated retail sales and employment numbers, true inflation rates, and genuine unemployment figures, which he believes are more precise indicators of economic activity than formal GDP or CPI numbers. Simon asserts that numerous countries, including the US and much of Europe, are either in a recession or heading towards one. In terms of market predictions, Simon anticipates a steep decline in global equity markets and base metals by early next year, followed by inflation and a surge in long-term interest rates, culminating in a collapse of the financial system by 2028.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:45 - Thought West Vs. East
4:22 - Provoking Russia
10:16 - Israel & Middle East
16:08 - Incentives & Sensibility
19:17 - Risks with Russia
21:55 - Market Outlook Long-Term
28:44 - C.B./Smart Money Exiting
30:30 - China Use For Gold
33:34 - China - Housing Sector
37:50 - U.S. Demographic Issues
39:37 - Metrics & Fudgification
45:07 - Six Month Market Outlook
46:54 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The BRICS group, led by China and Russia, poses a significant challenge to the West's global dominance, potentially leading to diplomatic clashes or even war.
- Central banks, particularly China, are amassing gold as a hedge against currency devaluation and economic instability.
- Simon Hunt anticipates a steep decline in global equity markets and base metals, followed by inflation and a surge in long-term interest rates.
Guest Links:
Email: simon@shss.com
Website: https://simon-hunt.com/
Simon Hunt began his career in 1956 in Central Africa as a PA to the Chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, one of the two large copper companies in what was then Northern Rhodesia, now Zambia.
In 1961, he came back to London and joined Anglo American Corporation of South Africa as a PA to one of the Board Directors, followed by being part of a small sales and marketing team for copper. From there, he helped start up a new copper development organization, CIDEC, financed by copper producers, which he then joined, focusing on conducting end-use studies of copper in Europe.
He then went into the City to gain financial experience and founded Brook Hunt in 1975. He was instrumental in setting up the company's cost studies and end-use analyses. Simon appeared as material witness and consultant in two ITC anti-dumping cases in 1978 and 1984, winning both at the commission level.
He has spent 2-4 months every year in China since 1993, and until a few years ago would be visiting some 80 wire and cable and brass mill factories across the country every year. He now restricts these factory visits to a smaller number, all of which he has known for many years. Simon also spends many weeks each year traveling around Asia.
The focus of the company's services is on the global economy, including the changing geopolitical and financial structures, China's economy and its copper sector, and then the global copper industry as each part is interconnected.
Simon is the author of the "Frontline China Report Service," which is marketed by the TIS Group. The Service provides regular reports on China's economy, politics, and financial outlook.
Simon established this company in January 1996.
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Nick Giambruno: The Failure of Central Planning and Central Banks
Tom welcomes back Nick Giambruno, founder of The Financial Underground and editor-in-chief of its premium investment research publication. Nick criticizes central planning and the Fed's role in managing inflation, arguing that central banks, cannot effectively manage interest rates due to their antithesis to free markets.
Giambruno deemed the steepest rate-hiking cycle by the Fed to combat decades-high inflation futile because raising rates to a level impacting inflation would bankrupt the US government. He considers claims of victory over inflation propaganda, as essential prices like electricity bills and food hadn't reached pre-pandemic levels.
Nick touches on the potential politicization of Federal Reserve monetary policy ahead of elections and the influence of politics on its actions. The discussion covers escalating debt and interest expenses, now the largest federal budget item, trapping the United States in a cycle of currency debasement.
Giambruno advises investing in hard assets like gold and precious metals as a long-term savings vehicle, and suggests considering gold mining stocks to speculate on fiat currency debasement. He favors royalty companies over individual mining stocks due to reduced risk.
The potential impact of the BRICS creating their own trading currency on the US dollar and the changing global order was discussed, suggesting a developing multipolar world where other countries take larger roles. Giambruno believs we are in a chaotic period, likening it to historical periods of power division, and advises individuals to consider alternatives like Latin America as a potential refuge.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:47 - Fed & Economic State
5:00 - Politics, Inflation & CPI
8:55 - Debt, Interest, & Debasement
10:34 - Dollar Collapse Endgame
18:11 - Asset Alternatives
19:45 - Gold Miners & Rate Cuts
21:12 - Commodities in General
22:40 - Miners & Royalties
24:25 - Lack of Understanding
29:14 - Short Term Gambling
31:25 - BRICS Trend & Conflict
35:18 - Historic Parallels
37:23 - Have a Backup Plan
39:20 - West Political Shift?
41:00 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Central banks, including the Fed, cannot effectively manage interest rates due to their being the antithesis of free markets.
- Investing in hard assets like gold and precious metals is advised as a long-term savings vehicle.
- The interview touched on potential politicization of Federal Reserve monetary policy and the influence of political considerations on its actions.
Guest Links:
Website: https://financialunderground.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/NickGiambruno
Website: https://nickgiambruno.com
Nick Giambruno is a renowned speculator and international investor. He's the Founder of The Financial Underground and Editor-in-Chief of its premium investment research publication Contra Speculator.
Nick travels the world searching for lucrative investment opportunities in overlooked markets.
Nick specializes in identifying Big Picture geopolitical and economic trends ahead of the crowd. His approach to investing also focuses on profiting from distortions in the market. This includes identifying unfounded pessimism in beaten-up industries, which creates opportunities for enormous gains.
He writes about geopolitics, value investing in crisis markets, Bitcoin, international banking, second passports, international diversification, and surviving a financial collapse, among other topics.
Nick has traveled to over 60 countries and lived in six of them. He formerly worked in the Middle East with a Dubai-based investment bank.
He has been featured in The Economist, Forbes, Zero Hedge, Seeking Alpha, The Herald of Zimbabwe, The Keiser Report, MoneyWeek, Casey Research, International Man, The Crux, Gold Newsletter, The Jet Setter Show, Lew Rockwell.com, The Tom Woods Show, International Living Magazine, Wall St for Main St, Emerging and Frontier Markets Investing, AntiWar.com, The Power & Market Report, Mountain Vision, Ron Paul Liberty Report, among others.
Nick is a frequent speaker at investment conferences around the world.
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Jeffrey Christian: Gold and Silver, The US Election - Existential Implications
Tom welcomes back the Managing Partner of the CPM Group, Jeffrey Christian to discuss the Fed, Gold and the current economic realities of U.S. and the globe. Jeff shares his views on the Fed aiming for a long-term inflation average of around 2%, with fluctuations accepted between 1.3% and 2.8%. He asserts that while the target remains unchanged, the Fed is being more explicit about it. He speculates on the reasons why inflation is "acceptable" to the Fed.
Jeffrey discusses the likely September interest rate reduction and potential surprises. He anticipates a quarter-point decrease followed by further evaluations in November and December due to recessionary fears.
Jeff discusses the US economy's influence on the global stage, the significance of the upcoming US election, the importance of data reliability in today's digital age, and the drivers of gold and silver prices.
Central banks' roles in gold demand, with decreasing holdings by developed countries and emerging economies buying for monetary reserves, are also explored. The history of non-alignment among developing countries and the uncertain future direction of BRICS is touched upon.
Jeff explains the drivers of long-term silver prices including investment and industrial fabrication demands, with relatively low net investment demand leading to unremarkable price performance. Industrial demand for platinum and palladium is substantial but not expected to surge significantly. Fear acts as a catalyst for investments into these metals although there primary use is industrial rather than having a monetary function.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:08 - Fed Anticipation & CPI
3:25 - Acceptable Inflation?
5:33 - A Fed Sept. Surprise?
8:50 - Recession Risk & Fed
10:00 - Global Effects
13:04 - 2024 Politics & Markets
16:23 - U.S. Policy & Regulations
21:30 - Ignorance & Progress
24:12 - Gold & Silver Outlook
28:43 - Long-Term Thoughts
36:25 - Dollar Vs. Gold Demand
40:50 - BRICS Alliance
45:47 - Drivers for Silver
49:13 - Platinum & Palladium
52:54 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Fed's fall rate expectations and possibility of a surprise.
- Global economic outlook and what to expect around the election cycle.
- Gold's global role and the limited monetary role of other precious metals.
Guest Links
Twitter: https://twitter.com/CPMGroupLLC
Website: https://www.cpmgroup.com/
Questions Email: info@cpmgroup.com
YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/c/CPMGroup/videos
Jeffrey Christian is the Managing Partner of the CPM Group. He is considered one of the most knowledgeable experts on precious metals markets, commodities in general, and financial engineering, using options for hedging and investing purposes. He is the author of Commodities Rising 2006.
Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on precious metals and commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, agricultural markets, and economic analysis. The company was founded in 1986, spinning off the Commodities Research Group from Goldman, Sachs & Co and its commodities trading arm, J. Aron & Company.
He has advised many of the world's largest corporations and institutional investors on managing their commodities price and market exposures and providing advisory services to the World Bank, United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and numerous governments.
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Parallel Mike: The Red Alert - America's Financial Instability and the World's Response
Tom welcomes back, Parallel Mike. Mike is the host of the Parallel Systems Broadcast on YouTube where he shares finance, geopolitics and personal liberty content. The conversation begins with a thought-provoking discussion about the global ramifications of the United States' current monetary and fiscal instability. As the world's leading power with its reserve currency, military might, and cultural influence, American financial or fiscal upheaval could ignite kinetic, cyber, and psychological conflicts worldwide.
Mike elucidates the intricate relationships between national power structures and influential financial entities. He issues a grave warning concerning the potential consequences if America faces a significant financial crisis or recession, stressing the significance of acknowledging societal drivers fueling long-term currency devaluation and consumerist attitudes.
Mike scrutinized the distribution of funds during the post-pandemic economic relief package, with a considerable portion allocated to the wealthy class but many individuals receiving stimulus checks. The ensuing savings resulted in inflation that didn't fully manifest until later, leading to price spikes in luxury sectors like watches and yachts. Now spent, these markets are witnessing declines.
Mike asserts that the global economy, especially Europe, is undergoing a significant downturn, marked by widespread corporate layoffs and potential employment consequences. Jerome Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole Fed meeting suggests an upcoming rate cut, which could impact the upcoming presidential election. However, rate cuts alone may not revive the economy, potentially leading to additional monetary stimulus.
Mike expresses concerns about escalating interest rates jeopardizing bank balance sheets. He is critical of pervasive accounting deceptions in the financial sector, cautioning of a potential implosion if public trust is eroded. Gold has historically served as a protective shield against collapsed financial systems by major players holding gold reserves as insurance.
Mike endorses value investing in the current market and advises against impending downturns leading to liquidity crises and widespread sell-offs. He suggests maintaining a portion of ones portfolio for speculation and emphasizes understanding risks in investment strategies. Despite the risks, he also points out historical instances where commodities delivered multiple cycles of returns following initial liquidity booms and inflations. He concludes by advocating investments beyond mere financial assets, such as health, relationships, and community.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:58 - Global Dependency on U.S.
6:25 - Saviour Syndrome?
12:33 - Pass The Debt Parcel
20:39 - Deficits & Delinquencies
27:24 - Saving The System
33:56 - Banks & Higher Rates
38:25 - Possible Solutions
47:09 - Riskiest Assets
57:58 - Russia in Contrast
1:01:55 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- American financial instability could spark global conflicts: Mike warns of potential consequences.
- Mike highlights pandemic wealth distribution issues and how they drove inflation in goods afteerwards.
- Mike discusses implications of Jerome Powell's dovish stance, potential economic downturn, and the role of gold in protecting assets.
Guest Links:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYt8UcqG2wvkehnmiF_9Akw
Twitter: https://twitter.com/parallel_mike
Patreon: https://patreon.com/parallelsystems
Book Reference: https://thegreattaking.com/
Mike is a precious metal's investor, organic farmer and host of the Parallel Systems Broadcast on YouTube where he shares content relating to finance, geopolitics and personal liberty.
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Doomberg: The Future of Energy - The Unwavering Power of Reliability Over Hype
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Doomberg, author of the Doomberg Substack, for a discussion on the science hype cycle and its impact on investments. The science hype cycle refers to the persistent overhyping of scientific innovations, such as solid state batteries, fusion, room temperature superconductors, and cancer cures, which often take decades to materialize. Despite progress, solid state batteries face inherent challenges due to safety concerns and complexity. Samsung's recent announcement of a silver-intensive solid state battery may boost silver demand but diminishes its near-term relevance for investors.
Next, the conversation shifts to the automobile industry, focusing on plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). PHEVs reduce regional gasoline consumption efficiently, but China's competitive edge in manufacturing affordable cars, driven by access to intellectual property, lower labor costs, and less stringent regulations, poses a significant challenge. Consumers favor affordable PHEVs over luxury BEVs, believed to be saturated in demand.
The discussion touches upon the carbon footprint of battery production for electric vehicles and the importance of recycling them. The focus should be on addressing pollution rather than just reducing carbon emissions. China's lenient environmental regulations give it an edge in industries like magnesium production.
Doomberg advocates continued investment in nuclear, natural gas, and existing hydroelectric power due to their reliability and suitability. He dismisses fusion reactors as unnecessary distractions from proven nuclear technologies. Small modular reactors and thorium reactors hold potential but lag behind large modular reactors, which offer known designs and predictable supply chains.
The conversation addresses the Russia-Ukraine conflict's implications for energy markets, Russia's role as a nuclear superpower, and the consequences of NATO involvement. Doomberg expresses concerns about the conflict's outcome and its impact on gold as a neutral reserve asset amidst geopolitical tensions and the bifurcation of the world into G7 and BRICS. He concludes by advocating for thoughtful consideration of military conflicts and their consequences, and introspection about the wisdom of engaging in war.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:08 - Science Hype Cycle
4:19 - Battery Lifespan, & Silver
8:30 - EV Costs, China, & Hybrids
13:37 - Western EV Demand
14:49 - Carbon Use Comparisons
17:03 - Pollution & Carbon
22:13 - Efficiency & Reuse
26:56 - West GRID Solutions
30:00 - U.S. Election Outcomes
35:06 - New Energy Tech
37:35 - Fusion Technology?
39:30 - SMR & Thorium
41:05 - Nuclear Proliferation
44:50 - Russia & Ukraine
48:30 - Global Bifurcation & Gold
50:52 - Dollar & Military Spending
52:53 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Science innovations often face long development timelines and are overhyped. Examples include solid state batteries and fusion reactors.
- China's competitive edge in automobile manufacturing poses challenges for electric vehicle markets.
- Continued investment in reliable energy sources like nuclear, natural gas, and hydroelectric power is advocated.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/DoombergT
Website: https://doomberg.substack.com
Doomberg is the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and c-suite executives. Its principals apply their decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity, and finance to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems.
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Garrett Goggin: Gold Miners are on the Brink of Exciting Returns
Tom welcomes Garrett Goggin, a seasoned financial analyst with expertise in trading and a strong emphasis on alternative assets like gold and silver. Goggin expresses his views on the current economic climate marked by the U.S. dollar's value erosion due to inflation and escalating debt. He regards gold and silver as reliable stores of value for future decades.
Goggin further explores the significance of the yield curve inversion, which he believes signals an impending recession and market correction. In past instances, gold has doubled in value following a yield curve inversion and a subsequent recession. He anticipates that this trend will continue, possibly leading to another gold price doubling. Institutions are predicted to invest in the gold sector as its performance continues to improve.
The conversation touches on the gold market's current dynamics, including the growing interest from investors that is not reflected in GLD shares outstanding but is visible in the growth of silver miners. The demand for silver exceeds production and existing stocks, potentially leading to a deficit and an escalating price surge.
Central banks' role in gold prices and their correlation with rate cuts during economic downturns are also discussed. Goggin predicts that as inflation persists and economies decelerate, gold will remain a valuable hedge against economic turmoil.
Garrett shares his philosophy for constructing a portfolio in gold and silver, focusing on analyzing companies rather than historical ratios or charts, emphasizing the significance of high-grade deposits and competent management. He advocates investing in inflation protection machines like royalties due to their fixed costs, minimal management, and potential for exploration success without being impacted by cost inflation. Smaller explorers and developers that can generate significant value through successful drill holes are also suggested.
The conversation delves into the characteristics of mining companies that make them attractive takeover targets, with a focus on high-grade projects, low cost operations, and cash generation. Royalties are highlighted for their exploration upside and potential to significantly increase shareholder value over time.
Timestamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:50 - Background & Alt Assets
2:05 - Market/Economy Overview
3:44 - Recession & Market Crash
4:50 - Gold Thoughts & Momentum
9:13 - Inflation Outlook
10:57 - Gold During Rate Cuts
11:36 - Silvers Performance?
16:17 - Portfolio Balance
19:57 - Qualities in Miners
25:14 - Upsides to Royalties?
30:02 - Takeover Targets
31:52 - Royalty Structures
34:45 - Technology & Mining
39:43 - A Gold Top Looks Like?
43:00 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Website: https://Goldenportfolio.com
X: https://x.com/GarrettGoggin
Garrett Goggin's career began in 1995 at the New York Stock Exchange, where he filled orders amidst the specialist booths. The NYSE was the economic heartbeat, its vibrant atmosphere pulsing with price adjustments following breaking news. Post-NYSE, Goggin joined a derivative arbitrage firm based in the UK and Ireland, marking his introduction to this niche trading strategy.
However, his fascination lay in gold, silver, and commodities. In contrast to the unpredictability of longer-term investments, these markets offered a sense of control. Goggin's conviction was that mastery of commodity markets wasn't contingent on luck but knowledge.
His quest for gold and silver took him across continents, visiting numerous mines and conversing with their overseers. For over fifteen years, he partnered with esteemed research entities Gold Stock Analyst and Stansberry Research, serving as a precious metals analyst.
A respected figure at prestigious gold conferences such as the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada's (PDAC) Toronto event and Denver Gold Show Europe in Zurich, Goggin is a preferred resource for leading gold and silver developers due to his insightful research.
Credentialed with Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and Certified Market Technician (CMT) designations, Goggin's educational background includes MS and MBA degrees from Babson College, renowned for its business programs.
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John Williams: From Fake Stats to Real Repercussions, The Consequences of an Inflationary Depression
Tom welcomes back economist John Williams, the founder of Shadow Government Statistics to explore the manipulation and misrepresentation of economic data by government institutions like the Fed and Treasury. Williams expresses concerns over the intentional distortion of inflation and GDP statistics, which can deceive the public and impact their decisions, potentially harming the economy and markets. A notable example is the strategic petroleum reserve being drained to artificially lower gasoline prices before elections. Accurate data, Williams asserts, is vital for informed policymaking and avoiding exacerbated economic issues.
Inaccurate inflation statistics are in part leading to financial hardships for many households. Despite this issue's potential political significance, no candidate has addressed it. He also explores the consequences of this discrepancy and its impact on consumer sentiment, suggesting that a future political campaign platform focusing on this could gain substantial support. Conversing about the potential economic pain or increased debt needed to rectify these issues, Williams acknowledges the challenges but stresses their necessity for improving conditions for the average American.
Williams raises concerns about the reliability of reported GDP figures, arguing they are heavily manipulated and bear little connection to real economic conditions. He highlights the disparity between reported GDP and underlying economic indicators like retail sales, industrial production, and housing starts, attributing this gap to political constructs and the Fed's money supply expansion. Williams warns of potential risks from an inflationary recession or depression and encourages individuals to protect themselves by holding physical assets like gold, real estate, or other hard assets. He concludes that average citizens should be concerned about economic instability arising from these factors.
John suggests that a recession already began during the pandemic and consumers should use common sense when evaluating government information.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:37 - Real Statistics & Fed
13:03 - Wages & Inflation
14:25 - Party Politics & Fixes
18:28 - Political Will & Debt
24:52 - Gold & Inflation
28:19 - Real GDP/GDI Numbers
36:56 - Consumer Sentiment
43:22 - Consistent Benchmark?
44:57 - SPR Importance & Need?
50:53 - Reality is Hitting Now
52:42 - Federal Debt & Interest
55:12 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Williams warns of manipulated economic data affecting public decisions and markets.
- Williams emphasizes the financial impact of inaccurate inflation statistics on average Americans.
- GDP figures are criticized as heavily manipulated, with gold suggested as a hedge against potential instability.
Guest Links:
Website: https://shadowstats.com
E-Mail: johnwilliams@shadowstats.com
Walter J. "John" Williams was born in 1949. He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies.
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David Haggith: Weathering the Storm - Coping with Recession, Inflation, & Market Volatility
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back David Haggith, author of the Daily Doom Substack. The conversation centers around the current economic situation in the U.S. and repercussions on the Federal Reserve policies. Last summer, David predicted continued inflationary pressures from factors like housing costs with a one-year lag time, oil prices, and producer prices. Despite the Fed's potential intentions to cut interest rates, David cautions about the possibility of another inflation spike, compelling the Fed to reconsider their decision.
David argues that markets misjudged the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates based on ambiguous comments from Chair Jerome Powell. Though Powell didn't signal a change in policy, markets believed there would be a pivot due to vague statements. This misunderstanding led to significant market fluctuations and the dissolution of the Fed's tightening efforts, necessitating further tightening by the Fed.
David also discusses the impacts on the economy during the covid period and impact on labor metrics. He believes that labor remains 'tight' due to a substantial drop in laborers as a result, leading to production issues. Despite some recovery, the labor pool has not returned to its previous trend line, signaling ongoing labor supply problems.
Mr. Haggith also touches upon potential market implications during the election and compares the current situation with the dot-com bust in 2000, where AI stocks were overvalued based on future potential. David warns of a possible correction similar to what occurred then. Regarding the ongoing geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, David discusses the potential impact on oil prices and the challenges of de-dollarization.
David also explores strategies for safeguarding assets during uncertain economic times, suggesting alternatives to keeping money in banks or dollars due to risks of inflation and bank troubles. He advocates for gold as a store of wealth but acknowledges its limitations. Other recommendations include building skills, focusing on relationships, and preparing for transactions if locked out of central bank digital currencies.
Time stamp references:
0:00 - Introduction
0:33 - Fed Resolve & Pivots
10:00 - Lag Effects & Landings
13:24 - Sahm Recession Rule & GDP
16:50 - Covid Era & Economy
20:34 - Consumer Debt & Recession
22:26 - Market Volatility & Elections
27:00 - Comparisons & Conflicts
34:52 - Unknowns & Dedollarization
38:00 - Dollar & Global Trade
39:57 - Yen Carry Trade
41:10 - Defensive Measures
44:44 - Gold & Other Metals
49:07 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Further potential inflation spikes despite Fed's rate cut intentions due to lingering economic pressures.
- How markets misinterpreted Powell's statements, resulting in market volatility and necessitating further Fed tightening.
- Why labor supply issues persist as a result of the Covid Period, affecting production and labor metrics.
Guest Links:
Substack: https://www.thedailydoom.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/EconomicRecess
David Haggith is the publisher/editor-in-chief of the Daily Doom Substack. David began the Great Recession Blog back in 2007 when he realized the U.S. housing market was on the verge of collapse. He urged family to sell their homes near the peak of the market. He decided the world needed a voice that would present more insightful commentary on the economic news of the day than what had been available anywhere in the mainstream media. Furthermore, he was amazed that so few people we're able to see through the nonsense. He doesn't associate with any political party, as politics keep people focused on blaming the other side and not recognizing the flaws on theirs. He's made a number of successful market calls and forecasts for past recessions. David believes we are now entering a Second Great Recession and provides advice on how to avoid the consequences.
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David Brady: What Rate Cuts Mean for Gold, Silver, and Miners
Tom welcomes back David Brady, a former money manager, Sprott Money contributor, advisor to 4779 Capital, and author of a Substack newsletter. Brady shares his perspective on the current state of markets versus the economy using his Five Pest process. He expresses his belief that a stock market crash is inevitable, with the S&P 500 potentially reaching around 1000. Brady warns that the Federal Reserve will likely intervene to prevent a major market drop and discusses his expectations for bonds, currencies, commodities, Bitcoin, gold, and silver markets.
Brady believes both gold and silver have been correlated recently but notes a disconnect with silver prices. He attributes the current strength of the gold market to Federal Reserve plans to cut interest rates, a weakening dollar, potential escalation of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, growing fiscal deficits, increasing demand from central banks and countries like China and India, and bullion bank squeezes. Brady predicts that miners will eventually catch up with the metals' price rise but may initially lag behind due to rising energy costs.
David shares his perspective on how miners might respond once the Fed cuts interest rates, acknowledging uncertainty about whether this could be the catalyst for miner outperformance or if it's already priced in. Silver could also surpass gold's performance based on historical trends, with silver often underperforming gold but catching up during major rallies.
David emphasizes the importance of looking at inflation-adjusted highs in gold and silver markets. David's investment strategy involves tracking the beta between miners and silver, buying high beta miners when he believes silver is about to rise, selling when he thinks it's near a top, and holding until silver drops significantly to validate the trend.
David discusses the potential impact of the upcoming US election on monetary policy and markets, with both Trump and a Democrat potentially winning but differing approaches to fiscal spending and interest rates. He labels Trump as an inflationist and expects him to put pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which could contribute to inflation and benefit gold and silver.
Lastly, David also mentions his concern about larger investment funds that only rebalance their portfolios quarterly or monthly. He emphasizes the importance of being prepared for financial instability by holding physical metals, farmland, becoming self-sufficient, and paying off debt.
Timestamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:40 - Davids Market Outlook
6:12 - Fed Reaction & Banks
11:56 - BRICS 'The Unit'
15:05 - Equity Drawdowns & Metals
16:06 - Performance Gold Vs Silver
23:10 - Fed Cut a Miner Catalyst?
26:08 - Silver Chart
35:25 - Inflation Adj Highs
39:10 - High Beta Miners
45:00 - U.S. Political Outlook
54:08 - Drawdowns Vs. Physical
56:22 - Have a Plan B & Skills
1:00:22 - Crisis & Big Funds
1:04:50 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Substack: https://fipestreport.substack.com/
Fund Website: https://4779Capital.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/globalprotrader
Sprott Money: https://www.sprottmoney.com/writers
David Brady has managed money for banks and businesses for 25 years. Mr. Brady is a CFA charter holder and holds a bachelor's degree in Business Studies and Financial Markets from Dublin City University. He started as a foreign currency trader in USD/DEM and managed multi-billion dollar bond and foreign exchange portfolios for multinationals such as eBay and Salesforce.
He has always been interested in financial markets, winning investment competitions at the age of 15. Scoring the highest grade for his graduate thesis, "Is the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism) Fatally Flawed," in 1993, and won foreign currency spot, forward, and bond trading competitions at 23. Suffice to say that financial markets have been his passion for much of his life.
David is a native of Dublin, Ireland. He moved to the United States in 1998 and now lives in Ontario, Canada, since 2015, with his wife and four kids.
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Robert Smallbone: Having a Plan B for Finances, Location, and Energy is Crucial
In this Palisades Gold Radio episode, host Tom Bodrovics invites Robert Smallbone from the Contrarian Capitalist Substack to discuss his concerns about the current state of affairs in the UK, particularly regarding protests, free speech, and political shifts towards left-wing ideologies. They also delve into topics such as energy policies, hate speech legislation, monetary history, and property investment.
Smallbone shares apprehensions over the UK government's handling of protests and free speech inconsistencies, touching on the complexity of defining offensive content. He emphasizes the significance of planning ahead, using the analogy of food shopping and dinner planning for strategic life decisions, and shares his personal experience living in Mexico.
The conversation then focuses on energy policies and their potential impact on costs, with Smallbone expressing concern over the UK's reliance on imported energy and the government's renewable energy focus versus nuclear power for base load energy. He criticizes the halting of oil and gas licenses in Scotland and advocates for nuclear energy as a sustainable solution for achieving energy independence and security.
Smallbone also discusses his frustrations with societal prioritization of eco-friendliness over practicality, using England's lack of grid infrastructure as an example. He challenges negative perceptions of nuclear power and emphasizes the importance of being well-informed about energy systems and subsidies.
Robert reflects on the significance of understanding monetary history and the potential financial repercussions of current inflationary policies, recalling monetary crises throughout history. He encourages listeners to study financial history and advocates for owning gold, silver, and potentially Bitcoin as a means of protection against potential monetary crises and inflation. The discussion also covers property investment strategies and the importance of buying property at the right time with consideration for interest rates and their impact on real estate investments.
Timestamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:45 - UK & Crazy Politics
5:32 - Social Media Police
9:43 - Having Backup Plans
14:25 - Energy Policy Nonsense
22:06 - Green Energy Problems
24:16 - Subsidies & Real Costs
28:10 - Monetary History & Cycles
38:24 - Diversification & Property
43:55 - Interest Rates & Cuts
46:14 - Seek Solutions
52:44 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Smallbone expresses concerns over UK protests, free speech inconsistencies, and energy policies.
- He advocates for nuclear energy, financial preparations, and being well-informed about subsidies.
- The importance of monetary history education and gold/silver ownership as a protective measure.
Guest Links:
Website: https://contrariancapitalist.substack.com/
Robert Smallbone, an unconventional thinker advocating for liberty and freedom, invites you to visit The Contrarian Capitalist Substack. Through discussions on macroeconomics, geopolitics, and metals, he introduces alternative viewpoints, offering potential solutions to the complexities of life and the world's chaos. His primary objective is to assist readers in seeking solutions and consider their Plan B strategies effectively.
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David Hunter: The Next Crash will Force the Fed to Print 20 Trillion Dollars
Tom welcomes back experienced investment professional David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors.
Talking Points From This Episode
- The coming global bust and why inflation will persist.
- We're in the last decade of a forty plus year supercycle.
- His thoughts on bonds during and after the bust.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:58 - Feds Outlook & Markets
6:41 - Fed Vs Bond Markets
10:46 - Market Thesis Ahead
19:45 - FOMO or Fed Policy
22:56 - After Targets & 2025
26:46 - Feds Response to Bust
33:47 - Trillions & Inflation
42:18 - Hedges & Precious Metals?
46:48 - During/After the Bust
51:27 - End of Bond Markets?
55:00 - Remonetizing Scenarios
57:36 - Preserving Capital
1:04:53 - Commodities & Dollar
1:07:25 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Email: Dhunter31@gmail.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian
David is Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors. He is an investment professional with 25 years of investment management experience and 21 years as a sell-side strategist with robust macroeconomic analysis and portfolio management expertise. His strong macro capabilities, combined with a contrarian philosophy, have allowed him to forecast economic cycles and spot market trends well ahead of the consensus. Intellectually honest, independent thinker comfortable with charting a course apart from the crowd.
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Prof. Joel Litman: Beyond Headlines - Strategic Insights on BRICS, Debt Crises, and Investments
In this episode of Palisades Gold Radio, Tom Bodrovics interviews Professor Joel Litman, CEO and Chief Investment Strategist of Valens Research and Altimetry Research. Litman criticizes the financial system's reliability, questioning media credibility and the effectiveness of modern accounting standards. He believes that while GDP is inadequate as a measure of economic strength due to its tax-based foundation, the US benefits from a lower tax rate and substantial income generation.
Despite his concerns over political spending, Litman trusts there's a control on deficits and sustained growth, believing in the US economy's resilience. He reprimands financial media for prioritizing headline numbers over credit research, stating earnings can be misleading due to regulatory capture within the accounting sector. Litman emphasizes considering various economic indicators beyond stock market figures and addresses China's economic concerns, including its debt crisis and RMB devaluation.
Litman presents a bullish stance on cryptocurrencies as a medium of exchange and storage but suggests converting back to dollars for spending or investment. He encourages passive investors to focus on long-term investments in US equities due to their consistent outperformance. The conversation touches upon macroeconomic factors affecting mining industry decisions versus specific mine analysis, emphasizing productivity and worth. Litman discusses potential US election implications and anticipates a thriving US stock market regardless of the outcome. He foresees continuity in economic policies under either Democratic or Republican leadership and significant productivity gains from AI integration within industries over the next ten to thirty years.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:24 - The Bearer of Good News
8:44 - Net Earnings & Accounting
15:45 - Metrics & Complexities
22:06 - Tax Base, GDP, & China
31:14 - Talent Exiting China
38:42 - U.S. Economy Benefits
41:28 - Buffett Selling
47:23 - Misleading Financials
52:07 - Inflation Metrics
55:40 - Dollar & Global Trade
58:30 - China's Problems & Russia
1:03:44 - BRICS & Latin America
1:07:40 - Dollar Alternatives & Crypto
1:12:04 - Gold Uses & Investors
1:19:29 - Macro Factors & Miners
1:26:22 - Russia/Urkaine & Gold
1:28:16 - Middle East Concerns?
1:30:53 - US Election & Sides
1:36:10 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Litman questioned the relevance of modern accounting standards and criticized financial media for focusing on headline numbers. He stressed the importance of looking beyond GDP for a true economic understanding.
- Litman is bullish on cryptocurrencies but expresses concerns around converting to dollars for spending/investment. He advises long-term investment in US equities due to their outperformance.
- China faces economic challenges, including debt crisis and potential insolvencies, which could lead to job losses and instability. Litman anticipates continuity in US economic policies after the election and sees productivity gains from AI integration.
Guest Links:
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/joellitman/
Website: https://altimetry.com/
Website: https://www.valens-research.com/
Joel Litman is President and CEO of Valens Research, a global corporate performance and investment research and analytics firm. In the role of Chief Investment Strategist, he advises institutional investors in equities, corporate credit, and macroeconomic strategy. He is also a member of the Board of Directors of COL Financial Group, a leading brokerage firm in Asia (PSE:COL).
Litman has been on CNBC, quoted in Barron’s and Institutional Investor, and interviewed in Forbes.com. He has published in Harvard Business Review, is a top contributor to SeekingAlpha, and co-authored the highly-acclaimed book, DRIVEN: Business Strategy, Human Actions, and the Creation of Wealth.
Litman has taught or guest-lectured at Harvard Business School, U Chicago Booth, Wharton, LBS, SAIF Jiao Tong, and others. He is a Professor at Hult International Business School, an FT and Economist top-ranked international MBA program. He conducts seminars regularly for financial and industry conferences around the world such as CFA and CPA chapters.
Litman is Chair of the UAFRS Advisory Council which is spearheading usage of Uniform Adjusted Financial Reporting Standards aka Uniform Accounting. He helped build Credit Suisse’s HOLT University and the Center for S.E.V. and MBA Concentration at the Driehaus College of Commerce at DePaul University.
Past employment includes Credit Suisse, Diamond Tech Partners (now PwC), Deloitte, and American Express. He is a member of CFA Institute, the global association for investment professionals, and the Association of Certified Fraud Examiners. He is a CPA (Certified Public Accountant), received a B.S in Accounting from DePaul University and an MBA/MM from the Kellogg Graduate School of Management at Northwestern University.
Litman’s philanthropy is focused on community development through scholarships, job training programs, and extensive microfinance lending, particularly in the Philippines.
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Mel Mattison: Part One - Social Security and Medicare Funds Are in Collapse
Mel Mattison: Part One - Social Security and Medicare Funds Are in Collapse
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Michael Pento: An Insolvent Nation with Inflation Problems
Tom welcomes back Michael Pento, from Pento Portfolio Strategies. Pento argues that due to a massive debt-to-revenue ratio and persistent deficits, the nation is insolvent. He linked this to the Federal Reserve's negative real interest rates since 2002, which led to a $7 trillion increase in its balance sheet, tightening bank lending standards, and an inverted yield curve for a record length of time. Pento expresses concerns over credit bubbles, particularly private debt, that have reached alarming levels, but credit spreads remain quiescent.
Pento shares his economic framework, consisting of five sectors based on the rate of change and second derivative of inflation. He emphasizes assessing the economy's health or distress, asset prices, debt levels, and the yield curve for each sector. Michael believes that when the yield curve normalizes, stocks should be sold as it signals Fed acknowledgement of economic problems and impending earnings plunge.
Michael expresses concern over the Federal Reserve prioritizing banks and Wall Street over the American people, highlighting its failure to address inflation impacting the middle class. He advocates for holding interest rates steady instead of cutting them and warned of a dollar depreciation against other currencies and hard assets like gold during deflation. He suggests overweighting bonds and bond proxies in disinflationary periods and emphasized the importance of gold as a safe haven.
Michael's model identifies specific sectors as favorable for gold, while suggesting being out of commodities during certain periods. He highlights energy's importance during growth periods. He criticizes passive investing and advocates active management with a clear framework. Lastly he notes, rising long-term rates and increasing costs could impact the housing market and banking system.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:31 - An Insolvent Nation
4:39 - Credit Spreads & Outlook
9:34 - Five Sector Model
11:07 - Yield Curve Inversion
15:08 - Equity Crash @ Cuts?
18:10 - Election & Dollar
23:07 - Model & Sectors
25:26 - Energy & GDP
26:42 - Fall Data Outlook
28:45 - Labor Revisions
30:33 - Good Money Managers
33:04 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Michael Pento believes the U.S. is insolvent due to high debt-to-revenue ratio and persistent deficits, leading to tight lending standards and an inverted yield curve.
- Pento's economic framework includes five sectors based on inflation rate change, emphasizing sector health, asset prices, debt levels, and yield curves.
- Michael criticizes the Fed for prioritizing banks over people, advocates for gold as a safe haven during deflation, and encourages active management.
Guest Links:
Website: http://pentoport.com
E-Mail: mpento@pentoport.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/michaelpento
Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies with more than 30 years of professional investment experience. He worked on the floor of the NYSE during the mid-90s. Pento served as an economist for both Delta Global and EuroPacific Capital. He was also the portfolio creator and consultant to Delta/Claymore's commodity portfolios, which were distributed through Claymore/Guggenheim's sales network.
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Kevin Freeman: Breaking Down the Coming Debt Crisis - Five Undeniable Truths About Money
In this radio episode, host Tom Bodrovics invites Kevin Freeman to the show. Kevin is a Co-Founder of the NSIC, Host of The Economic War Room, Bestselling Author and Expert on Economic Warfare. Kevin shares his passion for restoring a monetary system based on gold and silver, known as 'pirate money.' He argues that historically, societies have recognized gold and silver as money until recently when they began treating them as commodities or investments.
Kevin then delves into economic warfare, explaining it as the use of economic means to undermine adversaries or enemies. He emphasizes its significance in today's world where economic power is wielded aggressively and sometimes arrogantly by both foreign and domestic enemies. He believes that elites aim to enslave economically through dependency on them.
The conversation then turns to the unsustainability of the debt-based monetary system, which Kevin sees as a form of enslavement due to the constant need to pay off debts. He presents five truths about America's current situation, starting with its unsustainable debt path. With federal debt at $35 trillion and rapidly growing, the interest alone costs between $1.4 to $1.75 trillion annually, nearly equal to half of all personal income tax receipts in the U.S.
Furthermore, Kevin explains the structure of the U.S. national debt, particularly its short maturities leading to substantial increases in interest payments despite potential lower interest rates. He criticizes both the Trump and Biden administrations for missing opportunities to issue longer-term debt during near-zero rate periods.
Mr. Freeman expresses concerns about the U.S.'s role as the issuer of the world's reserve currency and its use in economic wars. The potential danger lies in nations forming alternative trading blocks and removing the dollar's reserve status, which could weaken the U.S. economy significantly. He also discusses the historical precedent of using debt to influence foreign policy and inflation's disproportionate impact on the poor, leading to wealth disparity and potential social unrest.
The conversation then touches upon the potential weaponization of currencies by governments, specifically central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), which offer governments control over how their currency is used. Kevin advocates for the use of gold and silver as legal tender to maintain purchasing power and avoid potential taxation like fiat currency.
Lastly, Kevin discusses concerns about the Great Reset and its potential threat to individual freedoms through debt enslavement. By 2030, the World Economic Forum plans to implement changes such as controlling food through CBDCs and open borders. The speaker encourages asking questions and seeking truth in the age of information, criticizing attempts to suppress opposing perspectives and manipulate science for control.
Kevin concludes by advocating for a pirate money solution involving individuals holding their money in gold and silver at the state level, which cannot be interfered with by federal authorities based on court cases supporting real money. He encourages spreading awareness about the problem and solution.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:53 - Pirate Money
3:18 - Economic Warfare
7:40 - Debt Enslavement
11:49 - Debt Unsustainability
13:57 - Bonds & Long Term Debt
16:34 - Borrowing Vs. Printing
17:54 - Debt Servicing & Spending
20:13 - BRICS Vs. the Dollar
24:00 - Dollar Weaponization
28:34 - Inflation & Wealth Gap
33:39 - Fed's Purpose & Tool
38:19 - Exporting Inflation
43:15 - Inflation & CBDCs
50:50 - Metals Legal Tender?
55:23 - Great Reset Threat
58:38 - Truth & Perspective
1:02:19 - Currency Solutions
1:10:26 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://x.com/SecretWeaponUSA
Book: https://piratemoneybook.com
Website: https://economicwarroom.com
Podcast: https://piratemoneyradio.com
Kevin D. Freeman is a Co-Founder of the National Security Investment Consultant Institute (NSIC) and Partner, EWR-Media Holdings, LLC. He is the Host of Economic War Room with Kevin Freeman (BlazeTV), a NY Times bestselling author, and considered one of the world’s leading experts on the issues of Economic Warfare. He holds the CFA designation, and his research has been presented in critical DoD studies. He has briefed FBI, DIA, ONA, SEC, Naval War College, HASC, Naval Postgraduate School, DARPA, IARPA, and a host of government agencies tasked with protecting America as well as members of both the House and Senate and multiple Presidential candidates.
Kevin is a citizen of the Cherokee Nation and serves as Speaker of the Cherokee Community of North Texas; a Senior Fellow at the Center for Security Policy; former Contributing Editor to The Counter Terrorist magazine; Trustee at Oklahoma Wesleyan University; and a member of the Advisory Board of First Liberty Institute. His books include Secret Weapon: How Economic Terrorism took Down the U.S. Stock Market and Why It Could Happen Again (NY Times Bestseller), Game Plan: How to Protect Yourself from the Coming Cyber-Economic Attack (Amazon bestseller), and According to Plan: The Elite’s Secret Plan to Sabotage America (Amazon bestseller).
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Byron King: Gold Investing - What Can Go Right, What Can Go Wrong
Tom welcomes a new guest, geologist and newsletter writer Byron King for a discussion on the culture of deception and misdirection in society. Byron, an Ivy League-educated geologist and retired U.S. Navy officer, shares his thoughts on society's shift from rigor to oblivion due to the loss of clear enemies post-Cold War and the emergence of self-proclaimed elites with skewed realities.
The conversation covers various topics including lawfare, its application against political adversaries, and the expansion of heightened surveillance and arrests. They also discuss the geopolitical conflicts affecting the world, with implications for the US and Canada, and the historical context of the US dollar's dominance in global trade and its role in inflation.
Byron expresses concern over potential consequences if the US faces a crisis managing these conflicts, which could result in economic instability and further inflation. They disucss the impact of Federal Reserve interest rate policy on the economy and gold market, as well as the increasing disparity between asset-owning versus non-asset-owning populations.
Byron also explores the undervaluation of mining industries, particularly those producing rare earth elements, due to cultural factors such as reliance on Chinese producers with low costs. Central banks' increased gold buying, driven by de-dollarization and geopolitical events is also discussed. The world will continue to need base metals like high-grade copper which will necessitate the mining of lower-grade ores and increased prices.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:50 - Reality & Distortions
7:49 - Lawfare & Politics
13:23 - Truth, Media, & Events
21:15 - Honest Money & Living Well
27:24 - The West & Inflation
37:38 - Golden Awareness
42:57 - Fed's Direction Now
45:30 - Manufacturing & Rural
54:05 - EV Demand & Rare Earths
1:00:06 - Mines & Timelines
1:07:19 - Conference Takeaways
1:14:28 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Society's shift from rigor to oblivion due to loss of clear enemies and rise of self-appointed elites.
- Increased demand for gold due to global de-dollarization and geopolitical conflicts, leading to potential economic instability.
- The undervaluation of mining industries and the importance of investing in reputable companies despite political influences.
Guest Links:
Website: https://paradigmpressgroup.com/
Byron King has first-hand expertise and connections in important industries like commodities and defense. He literally goes the extra mile to bring you perspectives you won’t find anywhere else.
His insights have been featured on MSN Money, Marketwatch.com, Fox Business News, CNBC’s Squawk Box, Larry Kudlow, Glenn Beck and PBS’s NewsHour. He has also been published in the Financial Times, The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal.
Byron graduated from Harvard University with a degree in geological sciences. He then went to work as a geologist for Gulf Oil Exploration and Production. Next came a tour as a flight officer for the U.S. Navy. At one point, he was an aide to the United States Chief of Naval Operations. After leaving active duty, Byron began practicing law.
In 2002, he started corresponding with the staff of The Daily Reckoning. His work was featured so frequently he was often called an “unpaid contributor.” When he officially joined the staff, he began criss-crossing the globe in search of the world’s best mining investment opportunities.
Even now Byron spends much of his time away from home, checking out remote exploration sites, mines, rigs and plants to bring you a first-hand account of almost every investment opportunity he recommends.
His way of breaking down technical language into everyday English has earned him a lot of fans. And you can count on him to give you the clearest picture of companies that make the world work.
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Chris Macintosh: We are Facing a 1 in 100 Year Financial Rebalancing
Tom Bodrovics welcomes a new guest to the show Chris Macintosh. Chris is the founder of CapitalistExploits and a seasoned hedge fund manager with experience in seven countries. They engage in a discussion revolving around ongoing recalibrations and rotations in capital markets, focusing primarily on the deindustrialization of the West and financialization as significant shifts over the last few decades. Chris underlines the disconnect between Western nations' massive market caps and their actual production capabilities. He also discusses short-term changes such as the increasing dominance of few companies in the S&P 500, accounting for a substantial percentage of market capitalization, and passive capital flows from Western economies affecting investing, particularly smaller companies.
Chris expands on the potential consequences of a mere 10% rebalance in Western markets, emphasizing instability arising from massive sovereign debts, derivative markets, and potential debt cycle inflation. He highlights the anomaly of passive capital flows toward large cap stocks and the importance of asymmetry in investing for low downside risk with significant upside potential. Chris mentions automation selling during a downturn and seeking contrarian sectors as an alternative investment strategy.
The conversation shifts to cover geopolitical risks, including the possibility of 'great taking' or conflict, having assets outside the financial system in counter-cyclical, counter-jurisdictional asset classes like food, shelter, agriculture, precious metals, and maintaining a long-term perspective. Chris discusses the importance of education, problem-solving skills, diversification, and taking action to deal with fear. He prefers Latin and South America for living and investing. He advocates for banking in multiple jurisdictions and investing in cash-flowing businesses.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:07 - Economic Overview & Trends
14:30 - Derivatives & Rebalancing
24:14 - A Silent Bull Market
27:59 - Liquidity Analysis
31:30 - Great Taking & Risks
36:05 - Cloudstrike & Russia
39:08 - War & Capital Shifts
42:57 - Politics Stability & Capital
49:07 - Interesting Jurisdictions
54:19 - Banking & Diversification
58:24 - Fear, Volatility & Action
1:04:13 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The West's massive market caps vs production capabilities create instability due to debt and derivative risks.
- The impact of passive capital flows on investing, with unloved sectors offering potential protection.
- Preparing for a rotation away from overvalued equities and towards undervalued sectors.
Guest Links
Twitter: https://x.com/capitalistexp
Website: https://capitalistexploits.at
Raised in Southern Africa, Chris Macintosh has since lived & invested from 7 different countries. After a career at top tier investment banks such as JPM, Lehman, Robert Flemmings and Invesco, Chris became tired of corporate life, and has since built and sold multiple million dollar companies, overseen $35m into venture capital, all the while investing full time, and managing his own and private client wealth.
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Mikkel Thorup: Protecting Your Investments & Liberty By Seeking Greener Pastures
Tom Bodrovics, welcomes back Mikkel Thorup for an updated discussion on the increasing trend of moving and investing offshore due to negative developments in Western Countries like Canada and the USA. Mikkel highlights how political statements from leaders and the media could fuel the desire to leave these countries. He underscored the urgency of having a backup plan, given the potential increases in fees and taxes that could make leaving increasingly expensive.
Mikkel expressed concerns over the rising costs of moving overseas and the increasing investment requirements for obtaining residency in some countries. He acknowledged the appeal of countries with attractive taxation, weather, and good economies. Mikkel advocates for individual freedom and the importance of making good decisions for ones families and investments.
He lauded the efforts of the new presidents of El Salvador and Argentina in turning around their economies through libertarian policies, but remains cautious. Mikkel discusses his appreciation for various cultures, economic drivers, food, water, energy independence, and geopolitics when considering countries for expats.
Italy and Ireland are amongst top countries for individuals with ancestry to apply for citizenship or residency due to their relatively straightforward processes. He shared real-life examples of clients obtaining Italian and Irish citizenship through ancestral connections. Mikkel discussed various aspects of international investment and taxation, including the process of withdrawing investments from Canada or the US without triggering capital gains taxes. How one goes about selling shares, relocating, and purchasing property overseas.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:16 - Expat Trends
2:37 - Canada Exit Fees?
5:02 - Moving & Expenses
6:40 - Residency Costs
11:55 - Residency Programs
14:05 - Having a Backup Plan
16:16 - El Salvador & Argentina
22:16 - Attitudes & Lessons
24:28 - Argentina & BRICS
26:40 - Passports & Border Control
30:38 - Panama Residency
33:06 - Mexico Outlook & Economics
37:06 - Western Europe Concerns
40:17 - Passport by Ancestry
43:55 - Citizenship by Invest.
49:00 - Citizenship by Birth
55:10 - Moving Your Investments
58:37 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Conference: https://www.expatmoneysummit.com
Website: https://expatmoney.com
Twitter: https://x.com/ThorupMikkel
Mikkel Thorup, is the CEO and founder of Expat Money, and is a renowned expat consultant for high-net-worth individuals. He specializes in tax mitigation, securing second residencies and citizenships, and constructing diverse foreign investment portfolios. Born as an autodidact, Mikkel dropped out of school at 15 and has since lived and traveled extensively across over 110 countries. He's the author of several best-selling books on expat living and hosts the Expat Money Show podcast. Mikkel founded the Expat International School of Freedom & Entrepreneurship in 2021, an online learning platform for children. A keynote speaker at many international events, he's also a philanthropist, serving on various boards and supporting a Ugandan non-profit for teen mothers. Mikkel is a devoted husband and father of two, with a passion for travel.
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Lawrence Lepard: Gold Stocks are the Best Performing Asset Class When Inflation Hits like the 70s
Tom welcomes back Lawrence Lepard from EMA2 Equity Management Associates for a discussion on economic trends and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Lepard expresses concerns about the Fed's potential acceptance of a higher inflation rate due to rising U.S. interest expenses and a large budget deficit. Jerome Powell, the Fed chairman, is also contemplating rate cuts to support employment levels and government finances amidst ongoing inflation and uncertainty in unemployment data and Gross Domestic Product growth figures. Larry and Tom contemplate potential rate cut timelines, the possibility of a shift in Fed tactics, concerns over financial crises, and the potential impact of political events on the Fed's decisions before the upcoming election.
The conversation shifts overseas to Japan's economic situation, with Lepard predicting that gold will reach new all-time highs due to Japan's reliance on imported oil and its shift towards purchasing oil in yen instead of dollars, potentially leading to a surge in gold demand and higher prices. Larry anticipates a decade-long bull market for gold and silver stocks as they are expected to double or even triple in value within the next 12 to 18 months due to higher metal prices, increased earnings, and potential dividends or stock buybacks.
Larry expresses his investment preferences, focusing on companies that pay dividends or hold precious metals as treasury assets. He also emphasizes the importance of responsible capital management following lessons learned from previous cycles. Despite concerns about mergers and acquisitions for large companies during this period, Larry suggests they might pay higher prices later in the bull market instead of seizing opportunities at low prices now.
Larry discusses his current projects, which include completing a quarterly report and writing a white paper on why sound money is crucial to solving the world's problems. He proposes making gold, silver, and Bitcoin legal tender, abolishing the Federal Reserve, letting banks fail if they engage in risky practices, and eliminating the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation as steps towards progressing towards sounder money.
Time Stamp Reference
0:00 - Introduction
0:53 - Rate Expectations
3:05 - Employment Factors
5:06 - Something Will Break
11:00 - Recent Political Events
16:35 - Mathematical Certanties
20:14 - Bonds & Long-Term Demand
23:32 - Stock Concentration
26:00 - Crack-Up Boom Bust?
27:35 - Global Problems
30:55 - Wealth Destruction
33:03 - Silver or Gold First?
37:22 - Miners & Valuations
41:05 - Dividends in Gold?
42:53 - Finding Opportunity
46:23 - Mexico & Mining?
49:53 - Germany & Bitcoin Sales
53:15 - Report & Whitepaper
56:52 - Spreading Awareness
1:00:16 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Larry discusses Fed's potential acceptance of higher inflation due to US interest expenses, budget deficit & Jerome Powell's rate cuts.
- Lepard predicts a decade-long gold bull market due to Japan's yen oil purchases, higher prices, increased earnings.
- Larry suggests focusing on dividend companies or precious metals; proposed steps towards sounder money, including making gold legal tender.
Guest Links:
Germany Bitcoin Sale: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/germany-sells-off-final-bitcoin-064941448.html
Newsletter: http://eepurl.com/gOf1dT
Website: http://www.ema2.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LawrenceLepard
Lawrence W. Lepard is the Founder and Managing Partner of Equity Management Associates. He has spent his entire 38-year career as an investor, principally focusing on venture capital opportunities.
Before co-founding EMA, Mr. Lepard spent 13 years at Geocapital Partners, in Fort Lee, NJ. There he was one of two Managing General Partners and was responsible for several venture capital funds. Before Geocapital, Mr. Lepard spent seven years at Summit Partners in Boston and California, where he was a General Partner at Summit I and Summit II.
Mr. Lepard received his BA in Economics from Colgate University, and he received an MBA with Academic Distinction from Harvard Business School.
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Keith Weiner: The Moonshot That The Metals Have Been Waiting For
Tom welcomes back, Keith Weiner, the president of the Gold Standard Institute USA, CEO of Monetary Metals, and a PhD economist. In their discussion, they examined the fundamental price of gold and silver which, according to Monetary Metals model, is currently above market rate. This dynamic price reflects the tension between physical markets and futures markets, with speculators in the latter holding significant leverage that can impact short-term prices. While the accuracy of this model is debated, its indication of prices being significantly above market price suggests a potential upward trend for both gold and silver.
Keith also touched on the philosophical concept of anti-concepts, drawing from Ayn Rand's ideas about proper concept formation. He used the term 'money' as an example of an anti-concept, arguing that defining money as anything other than gold or a promise to pay has led to misunderstandings and mismanagement of monetary systems.
Keith further explored the consequences of long-term trends in debt and falling interest rates. He explained how these trends lead to capital consumption through various means, including negative interest rates in countries like Germany, Netherlands, UK, and Japan, where enterprises that destroy investor capital are incentivized. In the United States, falling interest rates have led to an illusion of returns on investment as one party's wealth is converted into another's income. This 'prodigal economy' fuels consumption of capital, with Bitcoin and real estate being prime examples.
Additionally, Keith discussed differences between capital consumption, inflation, deflation, and stagflation. He argued that monetary increases can have different causes, leading to varying effects, and defined inflation as the counterfeiting or fraudulent issuance of debt or credit, resulting in inevitable deflation through losses or cram-downs. Lastly Keith explains Monetary Metals approach to making metals useful again to provide returns for companies.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:39 - Price Fundamentals
4:55 - Model Inputs & Analysis
11:23 - Profiting Vs. Stealing
16:18 - Anti-Concepts of Money
24:48 - Capital Consumption
32:28 - Inflation & Economists
36:32 - Defining Stagflation
40:01 - Drunk Monetary Policy
45:55 - Incentives & Solutions
49:56 - Incentivising Capital
54:34 - Providing Capital & Yields
57:27 - Counterparty Risk?
1:00:18 - Making Metals Useful
1:03:27 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Gold and silver prices may be undervalued according to Monetary Metals model, indicating an upward trend.
- Money defined as gold or promise to pay is crucial to avoid misunderstandings in monetary systems.
- Long-term debt and falling interest rates lead to capital consumption with unintended consequences.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/kweiner01
Website: https://monetary-metals.com
Website: https://goldstandardinstitute.net
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/keith.weiner.5
Keith Weiner is the founder and CEO of Monetary Metals, an investment firm that is unlocking the productivity of gold. Most people regard gold as a dry asset, to lock away in a vault, incurring storage fees. Many are waiting for it to rise in price.
Keith and Monetary Metals are on a mission to change this.
Gold should once again serve to finance productive enterprises and extinguish debts. The dollar performs one of these functions, but not the other. Bitcoin cannot finance anything, as no business can borrow a currency that’s expected to go up a hundred times. Gold is the one thing that fills both roles, par excellence.
Keith writes and speaks extensively, based on his unique views of gold, the dollar, credit, the bond market, and interest rates. When he is not working on the business, he is developing his theory of monetary science, and an arbitrage theory of economics.
Keith also serves as founder and President of the Gold Standard Institute USA. His work was instrumental in the passing of gold legal tender laws in the state of Arizona in 2017. He has met with central bankers, legislators, and government officials around the world.
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Julian Brigden: The Catalyst for a Powerful Metals Bull Market is in Sight
Tom welcomes back Julian Brigden, co-founder of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, about the current economic condition referred to as 'macro purgatory.' Brigden warns of an impending recession following a tightening cycle, with only an 8-10% chance of a soft landing. He underlines the significance of employment data, specifically unemployment rates, which can precede a recession and could result in significant rises, potentially causing bond markets to rally while equities weaken. The Fed's failure to meet its stated goals complicates matters as Treasury and Janet Yellen have counteracted their efforts.
Brigden discusses his perspective on inflation trajectory over the last few years and identifies significant factors such as the breakdown of globalization, a resurgence of the cold war, demographic changes, and the impact of COVID-19. He explains that goods inflation is at its second lowest level in 65 years, while core services remain high. If core service inflation does not decrease significantly, it could indicate weakening wages and lead to recessionary signals despite falling inflation rates.
The challenges faced by the Fed in making monetary policy decisions due to lagging and imperfect metrics like employment data, GDP, and CPI are also discussed. Julian expresses optimism about precious metals as a potential investment during this economic period.
Brigden shares his perspective on investment strategy shifts towards precious metals, emphasizing the significance of recognizing market weakness and the Fed's response. Julian also mentions the historical trend of investors being fully invested during strong markets, leading to a lack of liquidity during downturns, and discusses potential impacts on bond yields when the Fed inevitably intervenes. Additionally, he touches upon geopolitical risks such as uncertainty surrounding the next U.S. presidency.
Timestamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:40 - Macro Purgatory
5:10 - The Fed Vs. Treasury
7:46 - Goldilock Periods
13:08 - Inflation Calls & Factors
21:30 - Fed & Curbing Labor
25:53 - Lagging Metrics & Politics
34:26 - Markets & Pricing Concerns
41:00 - Metals & Low Liquidity
43:47 - Metals Potential & ETFs
49:13 - Miners & Capital Rotation
53:45 - Risk Vs. Returns & PMs
58:24 - This Time is Different
59:58 - AI Usefulness?
1:01:07 - Fed Cuts & Bonds/Dollar
1:07:00 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Brigden predicts an impending recession with low chances of soft landing; employment data is crucial.
- His thoughts on what may spark further interest in miners and metals.
- The Fed's failure to meet goals complicates matters as Treasury and Janet Yellen counteract efforts.
- Core services inflation could indicate weakening wages, leading to a potential recession despite falling rates.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JulianMI2
Website: https://mi2partners.com/
Substack: https://mi2partners.substack.com/
Julian Brigden is the Head of Research at Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, a firm he co-founded in 2011. He leads a six-person team of research and market professionals to publish independent macroeconomic research that is both ahead of market consensus and timely. Julian has over 30 years of experience in financial markets including positions in market and policy focused consulting to institutional investors as well as FICC sales.
Julian is a trusted advisor to many top money managers who use MI2 Partners’ research to guide their investment process. He has extensive experience with macro data analysis, broad fixed income, equity market (not individual stocks) and currencies. He is particularly skilled at exploring correlations in the economy and financial markets vital to a vast array of investment decision-makers. As a global macro strategist, Julian’s primary focus is understanding and explaining macroeconomic and policy-related developments to tell clients what is important in markets and what to fade.
When asked about his market outlook for 2022, Julian stated that the US policy response was massive. As a result, the economy has closed the output gap and is in danger of overheating. Together with inflation, Julian believes that this means the Fed needs to rapidly tighten policy while slowing growth. As rates rise and the balance sheet shrinks, the risks to very overvalued asset prices, especially stocks, will rise. He then stated that in Europe, as the impact of Omicron fades and the inventory cycle surges, the ECB will need to raise rates, which will add to the pressure in global bond markets.
With regards to market shifts and the issues he feels are not addressed in the media, Julian mentioned that there is a significant risk that we are entering a period of extended volatility. The most analogous period was in the late 1960s, when we saw greater economic and market cyclicality. As foreign interest in Treasuries has waned, he believes that the current US account deficit has been funded via purchases of equities. Thus, if US equities do correct, it could put considerable pressure on the dollar. With this in mind, Julian says that the MI2 Research team will continue to advise clients to be short fixed income in the US and Europe, together with high yield credit. Finally, they have suggested being long volatility in a few places.
Julian spent five years at Medley Global Advisors from 1999 to 2004, a leading macro policy intelligence firm, as the Managing Director of the G7 Client Team, providing timely trading recommendations. From 2004 to 2011, he served as North American Head of Hedge Fund Sales at Crédit Agricole. He has worked in London, Zurich, New York and Vail at UBS, Lehman Brothers, HSBC, Drexel, Credit Suisse, and Salomon Brother in foreign exchange and precious metals.
Throughout his career, he has been featured on many big media outlets such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox News Business, Real Vision, the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Barron’s. Discussing macro research topics that are driving prices in global bonds, equities, commodities, and currencies.
Julian Brigden, Macro Intelligence 2 Partners' Head of Research, co-founded the firm in 2011 with a team of six research and market professionals. With over 30 years in financial markets, he guides clients with independent macroeconomic research. A trusted advisor to top money managers, Julian specializes in macro data analysis, fixed income, equities, and currencies. He focuses on understanding macroeconomic and policy developments for investment guidance.
Prior to Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, Julian spent five years at Medley Global Advisors as Managing Director of the G7 Client Team. From 2004 to 2011, he served as North American Head of Hedge Fund Sales at Crédit Agricole. He has worked for various firms, including UBS, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, in foreign exchange and precious metals.
Julian's career includes appearances on Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox News Business, Real Vision, the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Barron’s, discussing macro research influencing global bonds, equities, commodities, and currencies.
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David Bradshaw: No Second Chances, the Lasting Impact of Debt
Tom welcomes Dave Bradshaw, a CPA, MBA, author, and business owner, to discuss his recently published book, "No Second Chances: A Family Guide to the College Decision and the Lasting Impact of Debt." The conversation revolved around the escalating college costs, questionable value of certain degrees, and the burdensome student loan debts many students now face.
Dave shared insights on how college has evolved from his childhood days, no longer promising a guaranteed path to financial success for numerous graduates. He stressed the significance of families considering the real costs of attending college, including the potential long-term impact of student loans on their children's future financial wellbeing. They addressed the skewed incentives in the system, such as government involvement in student loans and the absence of price discovery in the market for higher education.
Dave was inspired to write the book after observing a friend's aspiration to become a veterinarian and the immense financial burden that choice would impose on her. Dave highlights the importance of understanding the split between education costs and interest paid on loans. He advocates for students to weigh their future earning potential against taking on large student loan debts and criticized the lack of transparency surrounding college costs and financial aid.
They question the distortion in the education system due to government intervention in student loan industries, arguing that without price discovery, certain degrees and disciplines were either overvalued or undervalued. They pointed out examples such as nursing and veterinary medicine, where the value proposition was clear versus fields like sociology where the value was less evident.
The book serves as a practical guide for students and parents in making informed decisions about post-secondary education, with a workbook design that encourages self-reflection and dialogue between students and parents. It focuses on helping young people determine their purpose in life, considering what they want to learn, the job they aim for, and why they wish to attend college.
Dave suggests several strategies for alleviating the financial burden of higher education, such as living at home to cut costs in half, scholarships, tuition reimbursement programs from employers, having a job during college, and considering community colleges as an affordable alternative for the first two years.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:40 - Debt & College
4:42 - Degrees, Loans, & 'Aid'
7:06 - Inexperience & Decisions
10:08 - Inspiration for the Book
13:47 - Value Vs Interest Costs
15:47 - Hidden Costs & Understanding
24:05 - Distortions & Regulation
30:32 - Guiding & Finding Purpose
40:12 - Graduating Vs. Defaults
43:14 - Consequences & Examples
48:33 - Hacks & Workarounds
56:40 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- College costs have escalated, questioning its value and burdening students with debt. Families need to consider real costs and long-term impact.
- Government intervention in student loans distorts education market, leading to overvalued or undervalued degrees and policies preventing bankruptcy discharge.
- Strategies for reducing financial burden include living at home, scholarships, employer tuition reimbursement, part-time jobs, and considering community colleges.
Guest Links:
No Second Chances: A Family Guide to the College Choice and Lasting Impact of Debt
Amazon Book: https://a.co/d/0fczd0KB
Website: https://www.keepyours.org
David Bradshaw currently serves as the CEO and owner of Cylinder Testing Solutions (CTS), a material testing company with eight US locations, focusing on Non-Destructive Testing for the high-pressure gas industry. He also leads Tensoric, Inc.'s accounting and finance team since 2013.
Since 2007, Bradshaw has consulted small business owners on various aspects including business structure, accounting systems, tax planning, finance, operations, and market opportunities. With a background as a CPA, he spent three years in public accounting before starting his first business. His experience with diverse small businesses led him to various consulting roles. Since 2004, Bradshaw has held multiple positions within companies as controller, operations manager, CFO, CEO, and investor. In 2014, he bought out partners from the testing service business.
An outdoors enthusiast, he enjoys snowboarding and backpacking with his wife. His credentials include a CPA license (Colorado, inactive) and degrees in Master in Business Administration, BSBA Management, and BSBA Accounting from the University of Southern Colorado.
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Tom Luongo: Understanding Political Complexities, Truth and The New Gold Price
Tom once again welcomes back our other favorite Tom, the Tom Luongo. Together they explore the significance of recent political events such as Supreme Court decisions, European elections, US presidential debates, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Luongo argues that these seemingly disparate events are interconnected parts of a larger strategic move by various forces within the United States and Europe. He expresses frustration with the media's attempts to shift focus from crucial issues and calls for accountability from those in power.
Luongo discusses Trump's mercantilist economic approach, potential political unrest in Europe leading to a sovereign debt crisis, and the complexities of understanding politics through examples like Thomas Massie's appearance on Tucker Carlson and Julian Assange's release from prison. Luongo also delves into the historical context behind global powers manipulating gold prices and weakening Russia, with criticism towards figures like Churchill.
Furthermore, there are discussions about the Chevron deference, its implications on power distribution between branches of government, and how Islamic eschatology might influence current political events involving Donald Trump. Luongo encourages listeners to maintain an open mind and seek diverse perspectives while acknowledging the complexities of understanding politics. Lastly he suggests several books like 'Atlas Shrugged' by Ayn Rand for gaining insight into these issues. A summary of recommended reading can be found below.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:39 - The Great Debate
6:30 - Orchestrated History
16:40 - Control & Premeditation
27:20 - Pres. Harris & Alternatives
43:18 - Powell & Trump Season 2
47:42 - ECB Cuts Vs. Powell
57:49 - Trump & Inflation
1:01:45 - Chevron Deference
1:08:10 - Impacts & Effects
1:16:18 - Islamic Eschatology
1:28:29 - Assange & Timing
1:32:07 - Mercantilism & Gold
1:45:40 - Recommended Reading
1:53:03 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The various forces manipulating politics through Supreme Court decisions, European elections, US debates, and Fed's monetary policy.
- Trump's mercantilist economic approach causing potential crisis and complexity in understanding political events.
- Historical context of power dynamics, gold prices, and Russia: lessons and criticisms.
Articles Mentioned:
https://naomiwolf.substack.com/p/investor-george-jarkesy-massive-scotus
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/former-prime-minister-reveals-why-uks-blob-must-be-destroyed
Faisal's Interviews:
https://rumble.com/v54mx40-biden-trump-israel-and-the-end-of-times-with-tom-luongo-and-buna-capital.html
https://rumble.com/v4z3623-how-it-will-all-end-its-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it.html
https://x.com/SNewmanPodcast/status/1805179022168744424
Recommended Reading:
Bug Jack Barron - Norman Spinrad
Now Wait For Last Year - Philip K. Dick
Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep - Philip K. Dick
Guest Links:
Website: https://tomluongo.me
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TFL1728
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/GoldGoatsNGuns
Tom Luongo is a Former Research Chemist, Amateur Dairy Goat Farmer, Anarcho-Libertarian, and Obstreperous Austrian Economist whose work can be found on sites like ZeroHedge, Lewrockwell.com, Bitcoin Magazine, and Newsmax Media.
Professionally, he has spent a lot of his waking hours inside various analytic laboratories testing your water and soil for contaminants. He watched an industry be created by government fiat and destroyed in the same manner.
He ran for Florida House once and got 2.7% of the vote on Guy Fawkes Day and says, "I've since grown up a lot."
Then he spent 5+ years solving the puzzle of an electroless Nickel-Boron coating that has intriguing wear-resistance properties. Too bad, the coating was better than the company's business model.
Today, he is the publisher of the Gold Goats ‘n Guns Newsletter, in which he attempts to connect the false narratives of geopolitics to viable long-term investment theses.
As for politics, his position is well-known through his past writings at Lewrockwell.com, Seeking Alpha, and the aforementioned erstwhile blogs.
To sum up:
"Individuals are the only people with enough knowledge about their own lives to have a hope of making the right decisions for themselves, and no amount of guidance or central planning can help that process along."
He built the house he lives in and raises goats and milks them.
In short, he says, "I'm a libertarian who distrusts all human organizations larger than a two-handed game of poker."
Lastly, He states, "I own a few guns."
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