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Robert Bryce: How the Green Promise is Making the West Poorer
In a not-to-be-missed episode, Tom Bodrovics welcomes a new guest, Robert Bryce. Robert is an author, journalist, film producer, and public speaker.
Together, they delve into energy issues as Bryce voices his concerns over the fragility of the electric grid and the potential consequences of underestimating the value of a reliable energy supply. He recounts personal experiences with power disruptions and highlights significant contrasts between developed countries' energy abundance and challenges faced in places like South Africa and Beirut. The discussion centers on the 2021 Texas blackout, which shed light on renewable energy's role during the crisis and its limitations when needed most. Bryce underscores the danger of making the electric grid overly reliant on non-base load power. He advocates for recognizing natural gas's crucial role in securing energy stability during inclement weather. He also criticizes initiatives like Michael Bloomberg's Beyond Carbon Campaign, as they could potentially worsen the grid's vulnerability and threaten national energy security.
Robert raises concerns about inaccurate information and analysis regarding the energy landscape, specifically concerning hydrogen being misrepresented as a renewable resource by certain media outlets. He laments the negative impact of these misleading narratives on public understanding and decision-making processes. They also discuss challenges of the hydrogen fuel cycle and why it's more of a transportation carrier system than an energy source.
Robert discusses how modern energy policy is regressive in nature and its outsized impact on poverty and the wealth gap. He argues that these policies, including those related to climate change and electric vehicles, increase electricity costs disproportionately for low-income and middle-class households despite Democrats' advocacy for the public's welfare. Robert believes that energy affordability should be a bipartisan concern due to its critical role in the overall economy. He also criticizes the media's portrayal of the global energy transition, pointing out that developing countries like China and India are not adhering to the same goals as the West, focusing instead on building coal power plants to meet their immediate energy needs.
Robert advocates for pragmatism and a clear-eyed approach to energy production and consumption. He shares his skepticism towards renewable energy's low power density sources, such as wind and solar, and champions high power density sources like natural gas and nuclear. Robert also criticizes the corporatism surrounding renewable energy development and emphasizes the importance of understanding the realities of energy needs in light of increasing demand from developing countries.
Lastly, they explore the challenges of rapidly transitioning to electric vehicles (EVs) from a fossil fuel-based system. Despite promises, EVs are not yet capable of replacing oil as a critical commodity for commerce due to the enormous energy consumption in the U.S. transportation sector. The limitations and challenges of batteries, including their energy density, material intensity, and dependence on Chinese supply chains, are discussed. The Biden administration's energy policies are criticized for making the auto sector dependent on components from overseas while stifling the development of oil and coal-based power sources. Financial losses incurred by EV manufacturers like Ford and Rivian are highlighted, questioning the rationality and pragmatism of current industrial and energy policies.
Robert encourages people to become informed on these topics and to explain the situation to friends and family. It's important for people to understand the world's reliance on energy and why it's crucial to humanity.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:50 - Taking Energy for Granted
3:15 - Texas Blackouts - Causes
5:13 - GRID Stability & NatGas
7:03 - Media Accuracy & Bias
11:33 - EROI & Alternatives
14:50 - Fuel Cell Technology
16:03 - Energy Policy & Poverty
19:18 - Energy "Transitions" Charts
22:33 - Germany Coal Use
25:09 - Climate is a Concern
27:18 - Subsidies & Tax Credits
33:44 - EVs and Real Impacts
41:00 - Electric Motorcycles
41:52 - The 10000$ Question
44:47 - Commodities & Debasement
51:45 - Peak Oil Thoughts
55:05 - Efficiencies & Plastic
58:48 - Incentives & Nuclear
1:04:15 - Educate Yourself
1:07:02 - JuiceTheSeries & Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/pwrhungry
Website https://juicetheseries.com
Website: http://powerhungrypodcast.com/
Website: https://robertbryce.substack.com
Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/robertbryce
Robert Bryce is a Texas-based author, journalist, film producer, and podcaster. The host of the Power Hungry Podcast, Bryce has been writing about energy, power, innovation, and politics for more than 30 years. His articles have appeared in a myriad of publications including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Forbes, Time, Austin Chronicle, and Sydney Morning Herald. His sixth book, A Question of Power: Electricity and the Wealth of Nations, was published in 2020 by PublicAffairs. He is also the producer of a feature-length documentary film: Juice: How Electricity Explains the World, which is available on iTunes, Amazon Prime, and numerous other streaming platforms. He lives in Austin with his wife, Lorin, who is an art teacher, photographer, and master potter.
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David Haggith: Weathering the Storm - Coping with Recession, Inflation, & Market Volatility
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back David Haggith, author of the Daily Doom Substack. The conversation centers around the current economic situation in the U.S. and repercussions on the Federal Reserve policies. Last summer, David predicted continued inflationary pressures from factors like housing costs with a one-year lag time, oil prices, and producer prices. Despite the Fed's potential intentions to cut interest rates, David cautions about the possibility of another inflation spike, compelling the Fed to reconsider their decision.
David argues that markets misjudged the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates based on ambiguous comments from Chair Jerome Powell. Though Powell didn't signal a change in policy, markets believed there would be a pivot due to vague statements. This misunderstanding led to significant market fluctuations and the dissolution of the Fed's tightening efforts, necessitating further tightening by the Fed.
David also discusses the impacts on the economy during the covid period and impact on labor metrics. He believes that labor remains 'tight' due to a substantial drop in laborers as a result, leading to production issues. Despite some recovery, the labor pool has not returned to its previous trend line, signaling ongoing labor supply problems.
Mr. Haggith also touches upon potential market implications during the election and compares the current situation with the dot-com bust in 2000, where AI stocks were overvalued based on future potential. David warns of a possible correction similar to what occurred then. Regarding the ongoing geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, David discusses the potential impact on oil prices and the challenges of de-dollarization.
David also explores strategies for safeguarding assets during uncertain economic times, suggesting alternatives to keeping money in banks or dollars due to risks of inflation and bank troubles. He advocates for gold as a store of wealth but acknowledges its limitations. Other recommendations include building skills, focusing on relationships, and preparing for transactions if locked out of central bank digital currencies.
Time stamp references:
0:00 - Introduction
0:33 - Fed Resolve & Pivots
10:00 - Lag Effects & Landings
13:24 - Sahm Recession Rule & GDP
16:50 - Covid Era & Economy
20:34 - Consumer Debt & Recession
22:26 - Market Volatility & Elections
27:00 - Comparisons & Conflicts
34:52 - Unknowns & Dedollarization
38:00 - Dollar & Global Trade
39:57 - Yen Carry Trade
41:10 - Defensive Measures
44:44 - Gold & Other Metals
49:07 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Further potential inflation spikes despite Fed's rate cut intentions due to lingering economic pressures.
- How markets misinterpreted Powell's statements, resulting in market volatility and necessitating further Fed tightening.
- Why labor supply issues persist as a result of the Covid Period, affecting production and labor metrics.
Guest Links:
Substack: https://www.thedailydoom.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/EconomicRecess
David Haggith is the publisher/editor-in-chief of the Daily Doom Substack. David began the Great Recession Blog back in 2007 when he realized the U.S. housing market was on the verge of collapse. He urged family to sell their homes near the peak of the market. He decided the world needed a voice that would present more insightful commentary on the economic news of the day than what had been available anywhere in the mainstream media. Furthermore, he was amazed that so few people we're able to see through the nonsense. He doesn't associate with any political party, as politics keep people focused on blaming the other side and not recognizing the flaws on theirs. He's made a number of successful market calls and forecasts for past recessions. David believes we are now entering a Second Great Recession and provides advice on how to avoid the consequences.
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David Brady: What Rate Cuts Mean for Gold, Silver, and Miners
Tom welcomes back David Brady, a former money manager, Sprott Money contributor, advisor to 4779 Capital, and author of a Substack newsletter. Brady shares his perspective on the current state of markets versus the economy using his Five Pest process. He expresses his belief that a stock market crash is inevitable, with the S&P 500 potentially reaching around 1000. Brady warns that the Federal Reserve will likely intervene to prevent a major market drop and discusses his expectations for bonds, currencies, commodities, Bitcoin, gold, and silver markets.
Brady believes both gold and silver have been correlated recently but notes a disconnect with silver prices. He attributes the current strength of the gold market to Federal Reserve plans to cut interest rates, a weakening dollar, potential escalation of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, growing fiscal deficits, increasing demand from central banks and countries like China and India, and bullion bank squeezes. Brady predicts that miners will eventually catch up with the metals' price rise but may initially lag behind due to rising energy costs.
David shares his perspective on how miners might respond once the Fed cuts interest rates, acknowledging uncertainty about whether this could be the catalyst for miner outperformance or if it's already priced in. Silver could also surpass gold's performance based on historical trends, with silver often underperforming gold but catching up during major rallies.
David emphasizes the importance of looking at inflation-adjusted highs in gold and silver markets. David's investment strategy involves tracking the beta between miners and silver, buying high beta miners when he believes silver is about to rise, selling when he thinks it's near a top, and holding until silver drops significantly to validate the trend.
David discusses the potential impact of the upcoming US election on monetary policy and markets, with both Trump and a Democrat potentially winning but differing approaches to fiscal spending and interest rates. He labels Trump as an inflationist and expects him to put pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which could contribute to inflation and benefit gold and silver.
Lastly, David also mentions his concern about larger investment funds that only rebalance their portfolios quarterly or monthly. He emphasizes the importance of being prepared for financial instability by holding physical metals, farmland, becoming self-sufficient, and paying off debt.
Timestamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:40 - Davids Market Outlook
6:12 - Fed Reaction & Banks
11:56 - BRICS 'The Unit'
15:05 - Equity Drawdowns & Metals
16:06 - Performance Gold Vs Silver
23:10 - Fed Cut a Miner Catalyst?
26:08 - Silver Chart
35:25 - Inflation Adj Highs
39:10 - High Beta Miners
45:00 - U.S. Political Outlook
54:08 - Drawdowns Vs. Physical
56:22 - Have a Plan B & Skills
1:00:22 - Crisis & Big Funds
1:04:50 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Substack: https://fipestreport.substack.com/
Fund Website: https://4779Capital.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/globalprotrader
Sprott Money: https://www.sprottmoney.com/writers
David Brady has managed money for banks and businesses for 25 years. Mr. Brady is a CFA charter holder and holds a bachelor's degree in Business Studies and Financial Markets from Dublin City University. He started as a foreign currency trader in USD/DEM and managed multi-billion dollar bond and foreign exchange portfolios for multinationals such as eBay and Salesforce.
He has always been interested in financial markets, winning investment competitions at the age of 15. Scoring the highest grade for his graduate thesis, "Is the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism) Fatally Flawed," in 1993, and won foreign currency spot, forward, and bond trading competitions at 23. Suffice to say that financial markets have been his passion for much of his life.
David is a native of Dublin, Ireland. He moved to the United States in 1998 and now lives in Ontario, Canada, since 2015, with his wife and four kids.
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Robert Smallbone: Having a Plan B for Finances, Location, and Energy is Crucial
In this Palisades Gold Radio episode, host Tom Bodrovics invites Robert Smallbone from the Contrarian Capitalist Substack to discuss his concerns about the current state of affairs in the UK, particularly regarding protests, free speech, and political shifts towards left-wing ideologies. They also delve into topics such as energy policies, hate speech legislation, monetary history, and property investment.
Smallbone shares apprehensions over the UK government's handling of protests and free speech inconsistencies, touching on the complexity of defining offensive content. He emphasizes the significance of planning ahead, using the analogy of food shopping and dinner planning for strategic life decisions, and shares his personal experience living in Mexico.
The conversation then focuses on energy policies and their potential impact on costs, with Smallbone expressing concern over the UK's reliance on imported energy and the government's renewable energy focus versus nuclear power for base load energy. He criticizes the halting of oil and gas licenses in Scotland and advocates for nuclear energy as a sustainable solution for achieving energy independence and security.
Smallbone also discusses his frustrations with societal prioritization of eco-friendliness over practicality, using England's lack of grid infrastructure as an example. He challenges negative perceptions of nuclear power and emphasizes the importance of being well-informed about energy systems and subsidies.
Robert reflects on the significance of understanding monetary history and the potential financial repercussions of current inflationary policies, recalling monetary crises throughout history. He encourages listeners to study financial history and advocates for owning gold, silver, and potentially Bitcoin as a means of protection against potential monetary crises and inflation. The discussion also covers property investment strategies and the importance of buying property at the right time with consideration for interest rates and their impact on real estate investments.
Timestamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:45 - UK & Crazy Politics
5:32 - Social Media Police
9:43 - Having Backup Plans
14:25 - Energy Policy Nonsense
22:06 - Green Energy Problems
24:16 - Subsidies & Real Costs
28:10 - Monetary History & Cycles
38:24 - Diversification & Property
43:55 - Interest Rates & Cuts
46:14 - Seek Solutions
52:44 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Smallbone expresses concerns over UK protests, free speech inconsistencies, and energy policies.
- He advocates for nuclear energy, financial preparations, and being well-informed about subsidies.
- The importance of monetary history education and gold/silver ownership as a protective measure.
Guest Links:
Website: https://contrariancapitalist.substack.com/
Robert Smallbone, an unconventional thinker advocating for liberty and freedom, invites you to visit The Contrarian Capitalist Substack. Through discussions on macroeconomics, geopolitics, and metals, he introduces alternative viewpoints, offering potential solutions to the complexities of life and the world's chaos. His primary objective is to assist readers in seeking solutions and consider their Plan B strategies effectively.
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David Hunter: The Next Crash will Force the Fed to Print 20 Trillion Dollars
Tom welcomes back experienced investment professional David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors.
Talking Points From This Episode
- The coming global bust and why inflation will persist.
- We're in the last decade of a forty plus year supercycle.
- His thoughts on bonds during and after the bust.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:58 - Feds Outlook & Markets
6:41 - Fed Vs Bond Markets
10:46 - Market Thesis Ahead
19:45 - FOMO or Fed Policy
22:56 - After Targets & 2025
26:46 - Feds Response to Bust
33:47 - Trillions & Inflation
42:18 - Hedges & Precious Metals?
46:48 - During/After the Bust
51:27 - End of Bond Markets?
55:00 - Remonetizing Scenarios
57:36 - Preserving Capital
1:04:53 - Commodities & Dollar
1:07:25 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Email: Dhunter31@gmail.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian
David is Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors. He is an investment professional with 25 years of investment management experience and 21 years as a sell-side strategist with robust macroeconomic analysis and portfolio management expertise. His strong macro capabilities, combined with a contrarian philosophy, have allowed him to forecast economic cycles and spot market trends well ahead of the consensus. Intellectually honest, independent thinker comfortable with charting a course apart from the crowd.
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Prof. Joel Litman: Beyond Headlines - Strategic Insights on BRICS, Debt Crises, and Investments
In this episode of Palisades Gold Radio, Tom Bodrovics interviews Professor Joel Litman, CEO and Chief Investment Strategist of Valens Research and Altimetry Research. Litman criticizes the financial system's reliability, questioning media credibility and the effectiveness of modern accounting standards. He believes that while GDP is inadequate as a measure of economic strength due to its tax-based foundation, the US benefits from a lower tax rate and substantial income generation.
Despite his concerns over political spending, Litman trusts there's a control on deficits and sustained growth, believing in the US economy's resilience. He reprimands financial media for prioritizing headline numbers over credit research, stating earnings can be misleading due to regulatory capture within the accounting sector. Litman emphasizes considering various economic indicators beyond stock market figures and addresses China's economic concerns, including its debt crisis and RMB devaluation.
Litman presents a bullish stance on cryptocurrencies as a medium of exchange and storage but suggests converting back to dollars for spending or investment. He encourages passive investors to focus on long-term investments in US equities due to their consistent outperformance. The conversation touches upon macroeconomic factors affecting mining industry decisions versus specific mine analysis, emphasizing productivity and worth. Litman discusses potential US election implications and anticipates a thriving US stock market regardless of the outcome. He foresees continuity in economic policies under either Democratic or Republican leadership and significant productivity gains from AI integration within industries over the next ten to thirty years.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:24 - The Bearer of Good News
8:44 - Net Earnings & Accounting
15:45 - Metrics & Complexities
22:06 - Tax Base, GDP, & China
31:14 - Talent Exiting China
38:42 - U.S. Economy Benefits
41:28 - Buffett Selling
47:23 - Misleading Financials
52:07 - Inflation Metrics
55:40 - Dollar & Global Trade
58:30 - China's Problems & Russia
1:03:44 - BRICS & Latin America
1:07:40 - Dollar Alternatives & Crypto
1:12:04 - Gold Uses & Investors
1:19:29 - Macro Factors & Miners
1:26:22 - Russia/Urkaine & Gold
1:28:16 - Middle East Concerns?
1:30:53 - US Election & Sides
1:36:10 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Litman questioned the relevance of modern accounting standards and criticized financial media for focusing on headline numbers. He stressed the importance of looking beyond GDP for a true economic understanding.
- Litman is bullish on cryptocurrencies but expresses concerns around converting to dollars for spending/investment. He advises long-term investment in US equities due to their outperformance.
- China faces economic challenges, including debt crisis and potential insolvencies, which could lead to job losses and instability. Litman anticipates continuity in US economic policies after the election and sees productivity gains from AI integration.
Guest Links:
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/joellitman/
Website: https://altimetry.com/
Website: https://www.valens-research.com/
Joel Litman is President and CEO of Valens Research, a global corporate performance and investment research and analytics firm. In the role of Chief Investment Strategist, he advises institutional investors in equities, corporate credit, and macroeconomic strategy. He is also a member of the Board of Directors of COL Financial Group, a leading brokerage firm in Asia (PSE:COL).
Litman has been on CNBC, quoted in Barron’s and Institutional Investor, and interviewed in Forbes.com. He has published in Harvard Business Review, is a top contributor to SeekingAlpha, and co-authored the highly-acclaimed book, DRIVEN: Business Strategy, Human Actions, and the Creation of Wealth.
Litman has taught or guest-lectured at Harvard Business School, U Chicago Booth, Wharton, LBS, SAIF Jiao Tong, and others. He is a Professor at Hult International Business School, an FT and Economist top-ranked international MBA program. He conducts seminars regularly for financial and industry conferences around the world such as CFA and CPA chapters.
Litman is Chair of the UAFRS Advisory Council which is spearheading usage of Uniform Adjusted Financial Reporting Standards aka Uniform Accounting. He helped build Credit Suisse’s HOLT University and the Center for S.E.V. and MBA Concentration at the Driehaus College of Commerce at DePaul University.
Past employment includes Credit Suisse, Diamond Tech Partners (now PwC), Deloitte, and American Express. He is a member of CFA Institute, the global association for investment professionals, and the Association of Certified Fraud Examiners. He is a CPA (Certified Public Accountant), received a B.S in Accounting from DePaul University and an MBA/MM from the Kellogg Graduate School of Management at Northwestern University.
Litman’s philanthropy is focused on community development through scholarships, job training programs, and extensive microfinance lending, particularly in the Philippines.
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Mel Mattison: Part One - Social Security and Medicare Funds Are in Collapse
Mel Mattison: Part One - Social Security and Medicare Funds Are in Collapse
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Michael Pento: An Insolvent Nation with Inflation Problems
Tom welcomes back Michael Pento, from Pento Portfolio Strategies. Pento argues that due to a massive debt-to-revenue ratio and persistent deficits, the nation is insolvent. He linked this to the Federal Reserve's negative real interest rates since 2002, which led to a $7 trillion increase in its balance sheet, tightening bank lending standards, and an inverted yield curve for a record length of time. Pento expresses concerns over credit bubbles, particularly private debt, that have reached alarming levels, but credit spreads remain quiescent.
Pento shares his economic framework, consisting of five sectors based on the rate of change and second derivative of inflation. He emphasizes assessing the economy's health or distress, asset prices, debt levels, and the yield curve for each sector. Michael believes that when the yield curve normalizes, stocks should be sold as it signals Fed acknowledgement of economic problems and impending earnings plunge.
Michael expresses concern over the Federal Reserve prioritizing banks and Wall Street over the American people, highlighting its failure to address inflation impacting the middle class. He advocates for holding interest rates steady instead of cutting them and warned of a dollar depreciation against other currencies and hard assets like gold during deflation. He suggests overweighting bonds and bond proxies in disinflationary periods and emphasized the importance of gold as a safe haven.
Michael's model identifies specific sectors as favorable for gold, while suggesting being out of commodities during certain periods. He highlights energy's importance during growth periods. He criticizes passive investing and advocates active management with a clear framework. Lastly he notes, rising long-term rates and increasing costs could impact the housing market and banking system.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:31 - An Insolvent Nation
4:39 - Credit Spreads & Outlook
9:34 - Five Sector Model
11:07 - Yield Curve Inversion
15:08 - Equity Crash @ Cuts?
18:10 - Election & Dollar
23:07 - Model & Sectors
25:26 - Energy & GDP
26:42 - Fall Data Outlook
28:45 - Labor Revisions
30:33 - Good Money Managers
33:04 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Michael Pento believes the U.S. is insolvent due to high debt-to-revenue ratio and persistent deficits, leading to tight lending standards and an inverted yield curve.
- Pento's economic framework includes five sectors based on inflation rate change, emphasizing sector health, asset prices, debt levels, and yield curves.
- Michael criticizes the Fed for prioritizing banks over people, advocates for gold as a safe haven during deflation, and encourages active management.
Guest Links:
Website: http://pentoport.com
E-Mail: mpento@pentoport.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/michaelpento
Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies with more than 30 years of professional investment experience. He worked on the floor of the NYSE during the mid-90s. Pento served as an economist for both Delta Global and EuroPacific Capital. He was also the portfolio creator and consultant to Delta/Claymore's commodity portfolios, which were distributed through Claymore/Guggenheim's sales network.
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Kevin Freeman: Breaking Down the Coming Debt Crisis - Five Undeniable Truths About Money
In this radio episode, host Tom Bodrovics invites Kevin Freeman to the show. Kevin is a Co-Founder of the NSIC, Host of The Economic War Room, Bestselling Author and Expert on Economic Warfare. Kevin shares his passion for restoring a monetary system based on gold and silver, known as 'pirate money.' He argues that historically, societies have recognized gold and silver as money until recently when they began treating them as commodities or investments.
Kevin then delves into economic warfare, explaining it as the use of economic means to undermine adversaries or enemies. He emphasizes its significance in today's world where economic power is wielded aggressively and sometimes arrogantly by both foreign and domestic enemies. He believes that elites aim to enslave economically through dependency on them.
The conversation then turns to the unsustainability of the debt-based monetary system, which Kevin sees as a form of enslavement due to the constant need to pay off debts. He presents five truths about America's current situation, starting with its unsustainable debt path. With federal debt at $35 trillion and rapidly growing, the interest alone costs between $1.4 to $1.75 trillion annually, nearly equal to half of all personal income tax receipts in the U.S.
Furthermore, Kevin explains the structure of the U.S. national debt, particularly its short maturities leading to substantial increases in interest payments despite potential lower interest rates. He criticizes both the Trump and Biden administrations for missing opportunities to issue longer-term debt during near-zero rate periods.
Mr. Freeman expresses concerns about the U.S.'s role as the issuer of the world's reserve currency and its use in economic wars. The potential danger lies in nations forming alternative trading blocks and removing the dollar's reserve status, which could weaken the U.S. economy significantly. He also discusses the historical precedent of using debt to influence foreign policy and inflation's disproportionate impact on the poor, leading to wealth disparity and potential social unrest.
The conversation then touches upon the potential weaponization of currencies by governments, specifically central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), which offer governments control over how their currency is used. Kevin advocates for the use of gold and silver as legal tender to maintain purchasing power and avoid potential taxation like fiat currency.
Lastly, Kevin discusses concerns about the Great Reset and its potential threat to individual freedoms through debt enslavement. By 2030, the World Economic Forum plans to implement changes such as controlling food through CBDCs and open borders. The speaker encourages asking questions and seeking truth in the age of information, criticizing attempts to suppress opposing perspectives and manipulate science for control.
Kevin concludes by advocating for a pirate money solution involving individuals holding their money in gold and silver at the state level, which cannot be interfered with by federal authorities based on court cases supporting real money. He encourages spreading awareness about the problem and solution.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:53 - Pirate Money
3:18 - Economic Warfare
7:40 - Debt Enslavement
11:49 - Debt Unsustainability
13:57 - Bonds & Long Term Debt
16:34 - Borrowing Vs. Printing
17:54 - Debt Servicing & Spending
20:13 - BRICS Vs. the Dollar
24:00 - Dollar Weaponization
28:34 - Inflation & Wealth Gap
33:39 - Fed's Purpose & Tool
38:19 - Exporting Inflation
43:15 - Inflation & CBDCs
50:50 - Metals Legal Tender?
55:23 - Great Reset Threat
58:38 - Truth & Perspective
1:02:19 - Currency Solutions
1:10:26 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://x.com/SecretWeaponUSA
Book: https://piratemoneybook.com
Website: https://economicwarroom.com
Podcast: https://piratemoneyradio.com
Kevin D. Freeman is a Co-Founder of the National Security Investment Consultant Institute (NSIC) and Partner, EWR-Media Holdings, LLC. He is the Host of Economic War Room with Kevin Freeman (BlazeTV), a NY Times bestselling author, and considered one of the world’s leading experts on the issues of Economic Warfare. He holds the CFA designation, and his research has been presented in critical DoD studies. He has briefed FBI, DIA, ONA, SEC, Naval War College, HASC, Naval Postgraduate School, DARPA, IARPA, and a host of government agencies tasked with protecting America as well as members of both the House and Senate and multiple Presidential candidates.
Kevin is a citizen of the Cherokee Nation and serves as Speaker of the Cherokee Community of North Texas; a Senior Fellow at the Center for Security Policy; former Contributing Editor to The Counter Terrorist magazine; Trustee at Oklahoma Wesleyan University; and a member of the Advisory Board of First Liberty Institute. His books include Secret Weapon: How Economic Terrorism took Down the U.S. Stock Market and Why It Could Happen Again (NY Times Bestseller), Game Plan: How to Protect Yourself from the Coming Cyber-Economic Attack (Amazon bestseller), and According to Plan: The Elite’s Secret Plan to Sabotage America (Amazon bestseller).
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Byron King: Gold Investing - What Can Go Right, What Can Go Wrong
Tom welcomes a new guest, geologist and newsletter writer Byron King for a discussion on the culture of deception and misdirection in society. Byron, an Ivy League-educated geologist and retired U.S. Navy officer, shares his thoughts on society's shift from rigor to oblivion due to the loss of clear enemies post-Cold War and the emergence of self-proclaimed elites with skewed realities.
The conversation covers various topics including lawfare, its application against political adversaries, and the expansion of heightened surveillance and arrests. They also discuss the geopolitical conflicts affecting the world, with implications for the US and Canada, and the historical context of the US dollar's dominance in global trade and its role in inflation.
Byron expresses concern over potential consequences if the US faces a crisis managing these conflicts, which could result in economic instability and further inflation. They disucss the impact of Federal Reserve interest rate policy on the economy and gold market, as well as the increasing disparity between asset-owning versus non-asset-owning populations.
Byron also explores the undervaluation of mining industries, particularly those producing rare earth elements, due to cultural factors such as reliance on Chinese producers with low costs. Central banks' increased gold buying, driven by de-dollarization and geopolitical events is also discussed. The world will continue to need base metals like high-grade copper which will necessitate the mining of lower-grade ores and increased prices.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:50 - Reality & Distortions
7:49 - Lawfare & Politics
13:23 - Truth, Media, & Events
21:15 - Honest Money & Living Well
27:24 - The West & Inflation
37:38 - Golden Awareness
42:57 - Fed's Direction Now
45:30 - Manufacturing & Rural
54:05 - EV Demand & Rare Earths
1:00:06 - Mines & Timelines
1:07:19 - Conference Takeaways
1:14:28 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Society's shift from rigor to oblivion due to loss of clear enemies and rise of self-appointed elites.
- Increased demand for gold due to global de-dollarization and geopolitical conflicts, leading to potential economic instability.
- The undervaluation of mining industries and the importance of investing in reputable companies despite political influences.
Guest Links:
Website: https://paradigmpressgroup.com/
Byron King has first-hand expertise and connections in important industries like commodities and defense. He literally goes the extra mile to bring you perspectives you won’t find anywhere else.
His insights have been featured on MSN Money, Marketwatch.com, Fox Business News, CNBC’s Squawk Box, Larry Kudlow, Glenn Beck and PBS’s NewsHour. He has also been published in the Financial Times, The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal.
Byron graduated from Harvard University with a degree in geological sciences. He then went to work as a geologist for Gulf Oil Exploration and Production. Next came a tour as a flight officer for the U.S. Navy. At one point, he was an aide to the United States Chief of Naval Operations. After leaving active duty, Byron began practicing law.
In 2002, he started corresponding with the staff of The Daily Reckoning. His work was featured so frequently he was often called an “unpaid contributor.” When he officially joined the staff, he began criss-crossing the globe in search of the world’s best mining investment opportunities.
Even now Byron spends much of his time away from home, checking out remote exploration sites, mines, rigs and plants to bring you a first-hand account of almost every investment opportunity he recommends.
His way of breaking down technical language into everyday English has earned him a lot of fans. And you can count on him to give you the clearest picture of companies that make the world work.
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Chris Macintosh: We are Facing a 1 in 100 Year Financial Rebalancing
Tom Bodrovics welcomes a new guest to the show Chris Macintosh. Chris is the founder of CapitalistExploits and a seasoned hedge fund manager with experience in seven countries. They engage in a discussion revolving around ongoing recalibrations and rotations in capital markets, focusing primarily on the deindustrialization of the West and financialization as significant shifts over the last few decades. Chris underlines the disconnect between Western nations' massive market caps and their actual production capabilities. He also discusses short-term changes such as the increasing dominance of few companies in the S&P 500, accounting for a substantial percentage of market capitalization, and passive capital flows from Western economies affecting investing, particularly smaller companies.
Chris expands on the potential consequences of a mere 10% rebalance in Western markets, emphasizing instability arising from massive sovereign debts, derivative markets, and potential debt cycle inflation. He highlights the anomaly of passive capital flows toward large cap stocks and the importance of asymmetry in investing for low downside risk with significant upside potential. Chris mentions automation selling during a downturn and seeking contrarian sectors as an alternative investment strategy.
The conversation shifts to cover geopolitical risks, including the possibility of 'great taking' or conflict, having assets outside the financial system in counter-cyclical, counter-jurisdictional asset classes like food, shelter, agriculture, precious metals, and maintaining a long-term perspective. Chris discusses the importance of education, problem-solving skills, diversification, and taking action to deal with fear. He prefers Latin and South America for living and investing. He advocates for banking in multiple jurisdictions and investing in cash-flowing businesses.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:07 - Economic Overview & Trends
14:30 - Derivatives & Rebalancing
24:14 - A Silent Bull Market
27:59 - Liquidity Analysis
31:30 - Great Taking & Risks
36:05 - Cloudstrike & Russia
39:08 - War & Capital Shifts
42:57 - Politics Stability & Capital
49:07 - Interesting Jurisdictions
54:19 - Banking & Diversification
58:24 - Fear, Volatility & Action
1:04:13 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The West's massive market caps vs production capabilities create instability due to debt and derivative risks.
- The impact of passive capital flows on investing, with unloved sectors offering potential protection.
- Preparing for a rotation away from overvalued equities and towards undervalued sectors.
Guest Links
Twitter: https://x.com/capitalistexp
Website: https://capitalistexploits.at
Raised in Southern Africa, Chris Macintosh has since lived & invested from 7 different countries. After a career at top tier investment banks such as JPM, Lehman, Robert Flemmings and Invesco, Chris became tired of corporate life, and has since built and sold multiple million dollar companies, overseen $35m into venture capital, all the while investing full time, and managing his own and private client wealth.
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Mikkel Thorup: Protecting Your Investments & Liberty By Seeking Greener Pastures
Tom Bodrovics, welcomes back Mikkel Thorup for an updated discussion on the increasing trend of moving and investing offshore due to negative developments in Western Countries like Canada and the USA. Mikkel highlights how political statements from leaders and the media could fuel the desire to leave these countries. He underscored the urgency of having a backup plan, given the potential increases in fees and taxes that could make leaving increasingly expensive.
Mikkel expressed concerns over the rising costs of moving overseas and the increasing investment requirements for obtaining residency in some countries. He acknowledged the appeal of countries with attractive taxation, weather, and good economies. Mikkel advocates for individual freedom and the importance of making good decisions for ones families and investments.
He lauded the efforts of the new presidents of El Salvador and Argentina in turning around their economies through libertarian policies, but remains cautious. Mikkel discusses his appreciation for various cultures, economic drivers, food, water, energy independence, and geopolitics when considering countries for expats.
Italy and Ireland are amongst top countries for individuals with ancestry to apply for citizenship or residency due to their relatively straightforward processes. He shared real-life examples of clients obtaining Italian and Irish citizenship through ancestral connections. Mikkel discussed various aspects of international investment and taxation, including the process of withdrawing investments from Canada or the US without triggering capital gains taxes. How one goes about selling shares, relocating, and purchasing property overseas.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:16 - Expat Trends
2:37 - Canada Exit Fees?
5:02 - Moving & Expenses
6:40 - Residency Costs
11:55 - Residency Programs
14:05 - Having a Backup Plan
16:16 - El Salvador & Argentina
22:16 - Attitudes & Lessons
24:28 - Argentina & BRICS
26:40 - Passports & Border Control
30:38 - Panama Residency
33:06 - Mexico Outlook & Economics
37:06 - Western Europe Concerns
40:17 - Passport by Ancestry
43:55 - Citizenship by Invest.
49:00 - Citizenship by Birth
55:10 - Moving Your Investments
58:37 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Conference: https://www.expatmoneysummit.com
Website: https://expatmoney.com
Twitter: https://x.com/ThorupMikkel
Mikkel Thorup, is the CEO and founder of Expat Money, and is a renowned expat consultant for high-net-worth individuals. He specializes in tax mitigation, securing second residencies and citizenships, and constructing diverse foreign investment portfolios. Born as an autodidact, Mikkel dropped out of school at 15 and has since lived and traveled extensively across over 110 countries. He's the author of several best-selling books on expat living and hosts the Expat Money Show podcast. Mikkel founded the Expat International School of Freedom & Entrepreneurship in 2021, an online learning platform for children. A keynote speaker at many international events, he's also a philanthropist, serving on various boards and supporting a Ugandan non-profit for teen mothers. Mikkel is a devoted husband and father of two, with a passion for travel.
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Lawrence Lepard: Gold Stocks are the Best Performing Asset Class When Inflation Hits like the 70s
Tom welcomes back Lawrence Lepard from EMA2 Equity Management Associates for a discussion on economic trends and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Lepard expresses concerns about the Fed's potential acceptance of a higher inflation rate due to rising U.S. interest expenses and a large budget deficit. Jerome Powell, the Fed chairman, is also contemplating rate cuts to support employment levels and government finances amidst ongoing inflation and uncertainty in unemployment data and Gross Domestic Product growth figures. Larry and Tom contemplate potential rate cut timelines, the possibility of a shift in Fed tactics, concerns over financial crises, and the potential impact of political events on the Fed's decisions before the upcoming election.
The conversation shifts overseas to Japan's economic situation, with Lepard predicting that gold will reach new all-time highs due to Japan's reliance on imported oil and its shift towards purchasing oil in yen instead of dollars, potentially leading to a surge in gold demand and higher prices. Larry anticipates a decade-long bull market for gold and silver stocks as they are expected to double or even triple in value within the next 12 to 18 months due to higher metal prices, increased earnings, and potential dividends or stock buybacks.
Larry expresses his investment preferences, focusing on companies that pay dividends or hold precious metals as treasury assets. He also emphasizes the importance of responsible capital management following lessons learned from previous cycles. Despite concerns about mergers and acquisitions for large companies during this period, Larry suggests they might pay higher prices later in the bull market instead of seizing opportunities at low prices now.
Larry discusses his current projects, which include completing a quarterly report and writing a white paper on why sound money is crucial to solving the world's problems. He proposes making gold, silver, and Bitcoin legal tender, abolishing the Federal Reserve, letting banks fail if they engage in risky practices, and eliminating the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation as steps towards progressing towards sounder money.
Time Stamp Reference
0:00 - Introduction
0:53 - Rate Expectations
3:05 - Employment Factors
5:06 - Something Will Break
11:00 - Recent Political Events
16:35 - Mathematical Certanties
20:14 - Bonds & Long-Term Demand
23:32 - Stock Concentration
26:00 - Crack-Up Boom Bust?
27:35 - Global Problems
30:55 - Wealth Destruction
33:03 - Silver or Gold First?
37:22 - Miners & Valuations
41:05 - Dividends in Gold?
42:53 - Finding Opportunity
46:23 - Mexico & Mining?
49:53 - Germany & Bitcoin Sales
53:15 - Report & Whitepaper
56:52 - Spreading Awareness
1:00:16 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Larry discusses Fed's potential acceptance of higher inflation due to US interest expenses, budget deficit & Jerome Powell's rate cuts.
- Lepard predicts a decade-long gold bull market due to Japan's yen oil purchases, higher prices, increased earnings.
- Larry suggests focusing on dividend companies or precious metals; proposed steps towards sounder money, including making gold legal tender.
Guest Links:
Germany Bitcoin Sale: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/germany-sells-off-final-bitcoin-064941448.html
Newsletter: http://eepurl.com/gOf1dT
Website: http://www.ema2.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LawrenceLepard
Lawrence W. Lepard is the Founder and Managing Partner of Equity Management Associates. He has spent his entire 38-year career as an investor, principally focusing on venture capital opportunities.
Before co-founding EMA, Mr. Lepard spent 13 years at Geocapital Partners, in Fort Lee, NJ. There he was one of two Managing General Partners and was responsible for several venture capital funds. Before Geocapital, Mr. Lepard spent seven years at Summit Partners in Boston and California, where he was a General Partner at Summit I and Summit II.
Mr. Lepard received his BA in Economics from Colgate University, and he received an MBA with Academic Distinction from Harvard Business School.
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Keith Weiner: The Moonshot That The Metals Have Been Waiting For
Tom welcomes back, Keith Weiner, the president of the Gold Standard Institute USA, CEO of Monetary Metals, and a PhD economist. In their discussion, they examined the fundamental price of gold and silver which, according to Monetary Metals model, is currently above market rate. This dynamic price reflects the tension between physical markets and futures markets, with speculators in the latter holding significant leverage that can impact short-term prices. While the accuracy of this model is debated, its indication of prices being significantly above market price suggests a potential upward trend for both gold and silver.
Keith also touched on the philosophical concept of anti-concepts, drawing from Ayn Rand's ideas about proper concept formation. He used the term 'money' as an example of an anti-concept, arguing that defining money as anything other than gold or a promise to pay has led to misunderstandings and mismanagement of monetary systems.
Keith further explored the consequences of long-term trends in debt and falling interest rates. He explained how these trends lead to capital consumption through various means, including negative interest rates in countries like Germany, Netherlands, UK, and Japan, where enterprises that destroy investor capital are incentivized. In the United States, falling interest rates have led to an illusion of returns on investment as one party's wealth is converted into another's income. This 'prodigal economy' fuels consumption of capital, with Bitcoin and real estate being prime examples.
Additionally, Keith discussed differences between capital consumption, inflation, deflation, and stagflation. He argued that monetary increases can have different causes, leading to varying effects, and defined inflation as the counterfeiting or fraudulent issuance of debt or credit, resulting in inevitable deflation through losses or cram-downs. Lastly Keith explains Monetary Metals approach to making metals useful again to provide returns for companies.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:39 - Price Fundamentals
4:55 - Model Inputs & Analysis
11:23 - Profiting Vs. Stealing
16:18 - Anti-Concepts of Money
24:48 - Capital Consumption
32:28 - Inflation & Economists
36:32 - Defining Stagflation
40:01 - Drunk Monetary Policy
45:55 - Incentives & Solutions
49:56 - Incentivising Capital
54:34 - Providing Capital & Yields
57:27 - Counterparty Risk?
1:00:18 - Making Metals Useful
1:03:27 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Gold and silver prices may be undervalued according to Monetary Metals model, indicating an upward trend.
- Money defined as gold or promise to pay is crucial to avoid misunderstandings in monetary systems.
- Long-term debt and falling interest rates lead to capital consumption with unintended consequences.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/kweiner01
Website: https://monetary-metals.com
Website: https://goldstandardinstitute.net
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/keith.weiner.5
Keith Weiner is the founder and CEO of Monetary Metals, an investment firm that is unlocking the productivity of gold. Most people regard gold as a dry asset, to lock away in a vault, incurring storage fees. Many are waiting for it to rise in price.
Keith and Monetary Metals are on a mission to change this.
Gold should once again serve to finance productive enterprises and extinguish debts. The dollar performs one of these functions, but not the other. Bitcoin cannot finance anything, as no business can borrow a currency that’s expected to go up a hundred times. Gold is the one thing that fills both roles, par excellence.
Keith writes and speaks extensively, based on his unique views of gold, the dollar, credit, the bond market, and interest rates. When he is not working on the business, he is developing his theory of monetary science, and an arbitrage theory of economics.
Keith also serves as founder and President of the Gold Standard Institute USA. His work was instrumental in the passing of gold legal tender laws in the state of Arizona in 2017. He has met with central bankers, legislators, and government officials around the world.
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Julian Brigden: The Catalyst for a Powerful Metals Bull Market is in Sight
Tom welcomes back Julian Brigden, co-founder of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, about the current economic condition referred to as 'macro purgatory.' Brigden warns of an impending recession following a tightening cycle, with only an 8-10% chance of a soft landing. He underlines the significance of employment data, specifically unemployment rates, which can precede a recession and could result in significant rises, potentially causing bond markets to rally while equities weaken. The Fed's failure to meet its stated goals complicates matters as Treasury and Janet Yellen have counteracted their efforts.
Brigden discusses his perspective on inflation trajectory over the last few years and identifies significant factors such as the breakdown of globalization, a resurgence of the cold war, demographic changes, and the impact of COVID-19. He explains that goods inflation is at its second lowest level in 65 years, while core services remain high. If core service inflation does not decrease significantly, it could indicate weakening wages and lead to recessionary signals despite falling inflation rates.
The challenges faced by the Fed in making monetary policy decisions due to lagging and imperfect metrics like employment data, GDP, and CPI are also discussed. Julian expresses optimism about precious metals as a potential investment during this economic period.
Brigden shares his perspective on investment strategy shifts towards precious metals, emphasizing the significance of recognizing market weakness and the Fed's response. Julian also mentions the historical trend of investors being fully invested during strong markets, leading to a lack of liquidity during downturns, and discusses potential impacts on bond yields when the Fed inevitably intervenes. Additionally, he touches upon geopolitical risks such as uncertainty surrounding the next U.S. presidency.
Timestamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:40 - Macro Purgatory
5:10 - The Fed Vs. Treasury
7:46 - Goldilock Periods
13:08 - Inflation Calls & Factors
21:30 - Fed & Curbing Labor
25:53 - Lagging Metrics & Politics
34:26 - Markets & Pricing Concerns
41:00 - Metals & Low Liquidity
43:47 - Metals Potential & ETFs
49:13 - Miners & Capital Rotation
53:45 - Risk Vs. Returns & PMs
58:24 - This Time is Different
59:58 - AI Usefulness?
1:01:07 - Fed Cuts & Bonds/Dollar
1:07:00 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Brigden predicts an impending recession with low chances of soft landing; employment data is crucial.
- His thoughts on what may spark further interest in miners and metals.
- The Fed's failure to meet goals complicates matters as Treasury and Janet Yellen counteract efforts.
- Core services inflation could indicate weakening wages, leading to a potential recession despite falling rates.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JulianMI2
Website: https://mi2partners.com/
Substack: https://mi2partners.substack.com/
Julian Brigden is the Head of Research at Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, a firm he co-founded in 2011. He leads a six-person team of research and market professionals to publish independent macroeconomic research that is both ahead of market consensus and timely. Julian has over 30 years of experience in financial markets including positions in market and policy focused consulting to institutional investors as well as FICC sales.
Julian is a trusted advisor to many top money managers who use MI2 Partners’ research to guide their investment process. He has extensive experience with macro data analysis, broad fixed income, equity market (not individual stocks) and currencies. He is particularly skilled at exploring correlations in the economy and financial markets vital to a vast array of investment decision-makers. As a global macro strategist, Julian’s primary focus is understanding and explaining macroeconomic and policy-related developments to tell clients what is important in markets and what to fade.
When asked about his market outlook for 2022, Julian stated that the US policy response was massive. As a result, the economy has closed the output gap and is in danger of overheating. Together with inflation, Julian believes that this means the Fed needs to rapidly tighten policy while slowing growth. As rates rise and the balance sheet shrinks, the risks to very overvalued asset prices, especially stocks, will rise. He then stated that in Europe, as the impact of Omicron fades and the inventory cycle surges, the ECB will need to raise rates, which will add to the pressure in global bond markets.
With regards to market shifts and the issues he feels are not addressed in the media, Julian mentioned that there is a significant risk that we are entering a period of extended volatility. The most analogous period was in the late 1960s, when we saw greater economic and market cyclicality. As foreign interest in Treasuries has waned, he believes that the current US account deficit has been funded via purchases of equities. Thus, if US equities do correct, it could put considerable pressure on the dollar. With this in mind, Julian says that the MI2 Research team will continue to advise clients to be short fixed income in the US and Europe, together with high yield credit. Finally, they have suggested being long volatility in a few places.
Julian spent five years at Medley Global Advisors from 1999 to 2004, a leading macro policy intelligence firm, as the Managing Director of the G7 Client Team, providing timely trading recommendations. From 2004 to 2011, he served as North American Head of Hedge Fund Sales at Crédit Agricole. He has worked in London, Zurich, New York and Vail at UBS, Lehman Brothers, HSBC, Drexel, Credit Suisse, and Salomon Brother in foreign exchange and precious metals.
Throughout his career, he has been featured on many big media outlets such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox News Business, Real Vision, the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Barron’s. Discussing macro research topics that are driving prices in global bonds, equities, commodities, and currencies.
Julian Brigden, Macro Intelligence 2 Partners' Head of Research, co-founded the firm in 2011 with a team of six research and market professionals. With over 30 years in financial markets, he guides clients with independent macroeconomic research. A trusted advisor to top money managers, Julian specializes in macro data analysis, fixed income, equities, and currencies. He focuses on understanding macroeconomic and policy developments for investment guidance.
Prior to Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, Julian spent five years at Medley Global Advisors as Managing Director of the G7 Client Team. From 2004 to 2011, he served as North American Head of Hedge Fund Sales at Crédit Agricole. He has worked for various firms, including UBS, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, in foreign exchange and precious metals.
Julian's career includes appearances on Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox News Business, Real Vision, the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Barron’s, discussing macro research influencing global bonds, equities, commodities, and currencies.
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David Bradshaw: No Second Chances, the Lasting Impact of Debt
Tom welcomes Dave Bradshaw, a CPA, MBA, author, and business owner, to discuss his recently published book, "No Second Chances: A Family Guide to the College Decision and the Lasting Impact of Debt." The conversation revolved around the escalating college costs, questionable value of certain degrees, and the burdensome student loan debts many students now face.
Dave shared insights on how college has evolved from his childhood days, no longer promising a guaranteed path to financial success for numerous graduates. He stressed the significance of families considering the real costs of attending college, including the potential long-term impact of student loans on their children's future financial wellbeing. They addressed the skewed incentives in the system, such as government involvement in student loans and the absence of price discovery in the market for higher education.
Dave was inspired to write the book after observing a friend's aspiration to become a veterinarian and the immense financial burden that choice would impose on her. Dave highlights the importance of understanding the split between education costs and interest paid on loans. He advocates for students to weigh their future earning potential against taking on large student loan debts and criticized the lack of transparency surrounding college costs and financial aid.
They question the distortion in the education system due to government intervention in student loan industries, arguing that without price discovery, certain degrees and disciplines were either overvalued or undervalued. They pointed out examples such as nursing and veterinary medicine, where the value proposition was clear versus fields like sociology where the value was less evident.
The book serves as a practical guide for students and parents in making informed decisions about post-secondary education, with a workbook design that encourages self-reflection and dialogue between students and parents. It focuses on helping young people determine their purpose in life, considering what they want to learn, the job they aim for, and why they wish to attend college.
Dave suggests several strategies for alleviating the financial burden of higher education, such as living at home to cut costs in half, scholarships, tuition reimbursement programs from employers, having a job during college, and considering community colleges as an affordable alternative for the first two years.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:40 - Debt & College
4:42 - Degrees, Loans, & 'Aid'
7:06 - Inexperience & Decisions
10:08 - Inspiration for the Book
13:47 - Value Vs Interest Costs
15:47 - Hidden Costs & Understanding
24:05 - Distortions & Regulation
30:32 - Guiding & Finding Purpose
40:12 - Graduating Vs. Defaults
43:14 - Consequences & Examples
48:33 - Hacks & Workarounds
56:40 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- College costs have escalated, questioning its value and burdening students with debt. Families need to consider real costs and long-term impact.
- Government intervention in student loans distorts education market, leading to overvalued or undervalued degrees and policies preventing bankruptcy discharge.
- Strategies for reducing financial burden include living at home, scholarships, employer tuition reimbursement, part-time jobs, and considering community colleges.
Guest Links:
No Second Chances: A Family Guide to the College Choice and Lasting Impact of Debt
Amazon Book: https://a.co/d/0fczd0KB
Website: https://www.keepyours.org
David Bradshaw currently serves as the CEO and owner of Cylinder Testing Solutions (CTS), a material testing company with eight US locations, focusing on Non-Destructive Testing for the high-pressure gas industry. He also leads Tensoric, Inc.'s accounting and finance team since 2013.
Since 2007, Bradshaw has consulted small business owners on various aspects including business structure, accounting systems, tax planning, finance, operations, and market opportunities. With a background as a CPA, he spent three years in public accounting before starting his first business. His experience with diverse small businesses led him to various consulting roles. Since 2004, Bradshaw has held multiple positions within companies as controller, operations manager, CFO, CEO, and investor. In 2014, he bought out partners from the testing service business.
An outdoors enthusiast, he enjoys snowboarding and backpacking with his wife. His credentials include a CPA license (Colorado, inactive) and degrees in Master in Business Administration, BSBA Management, and BSBA Accounting from the University of Southern Colorado.
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Tom Luongo: Understanding Political Complexities, Truth and The New Gold Price
Tom once again welcomes back our other favorite Tom, the Tom Luongo. Together they explore the significance of recent political events such as Supreme Court decisions, European elections, US presidential debates, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Luongo argues that these seemingly disparate events are interconnected parts of a larger strategic move by various forces within the United States and Europe. He expresses frustration with the media's attempts to shift focus from crucial issues and calls for accountability from those in power.
Luongo discusses Trump's mercantilist economic approach, potential political unrest in Europe leading to a sovereign debt crisis, and the complexities of understanding politics through examples like Thomas Massie's appearance on Tucker Carlson and Julian Assange's release from prison. Luongo also delves into the historical context behind global powers manipulating gold prices and weakening Russia, with criticism towards figures like Churchill.
Furthermore, there are discussions about the Chevron deference, its implications on power distribution between branches of government, and how Islamic eschatology might influence current political events involving Donald Trump. Luongo encourages listeners to maintain an open mind and seek diverse perspectives while acknowledging the complexities of understanding politics. Lastly he suggests several books like 'Atlas Shrugged' by Ayn Rand for gaining insight into these issues. A summary of recommended reading can be found below.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:39 - The Great Debate
6:30 - Orchestrated History
16:40 - Control & Premeditation
27:20 - Pres. Harris & Alternatives
43:18 - Powell & Trump Season 2
47:42 - ECB Cuts Vs. Powell
57:49 - Trump & Inflation
1:01:45 - Chevron Deference
1:08:10 - Impacts & Effects
1:16:18 - Islamic Eschatology
1:28:29 - Assange & Timing
1:32:07 - Mercantilism & Gold
1:45:40 - Recommended Reading
1:53:03 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The various forces manipulating politics through Supreme Court decisions, European elections, US debates, and Fed's monetary policy.
- Trump's mercantilist economic approach causing potential crisis and complexity in understanding political events.
- Historical context of power dynamics, gold prices, and Russia: lessons and criticisms.
Articles Mentioned:
https://naomiwolf.substack.com/p/investor-george-jarkesy-massive-scotus
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/former-prime-minister-reveals-why-uks-blob-must-be-destroyed
Faisal's Interviews:
https://rumble.com/v54mx40-biden-trump-israel-and-the-end-of-times-with-tom-luongo-and-buna-capital.html
https://rumble.com/v4z3623-how-it-will-all-end-its-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it.html
https://x.com/SNewmanPodcast/status/1805179022168744424
Recommended Reading:
Bug Jack Barron - Norman Spinrad
Now Wait For Last Year - Philip K. Dick
Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep - Philip K. Dick
Guest Links:
Website: https://tomluongo.me
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TFL1728
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/GoldGoatsNGuns
Tom Luongo is a Former Research Chemist, Amateur Dairy Goat Farmer, Anarcho-Libertarian, and Obstreperous Austrian Economist whose work can be found on sites like ZeroHedge, Lewrockwell.com, Bitcoin Magazine, and Newsmax Media.
Professionally, he has spent a lot of his waking hours inside various analytic laboratories testing your water and soil for contaminants. He watched an industry be created by government fiat and destroyed in the same manner.
He ran for Florida House once and got 2.7% of the vote on Guy Fawkes Day and says, "I've since grown up a lot."
Then he spent 5+ years solving the puzzle of an electroless Nickel-Boron coating that has intriguing wear-resistance properties. Too bad, the coating was better than the company's business model.
Today, he is the publisher of the Gold Goats ‘n Guns Newsletter, in which he attempts to connect the false narratives of geopolitics to viable long-term investment theses.
As for politics, his position is well-known through his past writings at Lewrockwell.com, Seeking Alpha, and the aforementioned erstwhile blogs.
To sum up:
"Individuals are the only people with enough knowledge about their own lives to have a hope of making the right decisions for themselves, and no amount of guidance or central planning can help that process along."
He built the house he lives in and raises goats and milks them.
In short, he says, "I'm a libertarian who distrusts all human organizations larger than a two-handed game of poker."
Lastly, He states, "I own a few guns."
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Martin Armstrong: The Hidden Cost That Could Devastate Equities, Real Estate & Long-Term Investments
In this thought-provoking episode, Tom Bodrovics invites back the esteemed Martin Armstrong from Armstrong Economics for an engaging conversation that spans historical political trends, economic repercussions of poorly thought out policies, critiques of politicians, NATO's relevance, Neocon influence, gold as a hedge against uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions.
Armstrong asserts the recurring cyclical pendulum swing towards the left throughout history is predictable. He raises alarm over the economically destructive consequences of COVID-19 policies and climate change regulations on European small businesses. Armstrong denounces politicians for their power retention efforts, citing instances such as Biden's lawsuits against Trump and perceived inconsistencies.
The conversation delves into the perceived threat posed by Trump to those in power, speculation of a potential false flag or war with Russia prior to the elections, low approval ratings for Congress and President Biden, and the administration's emphasis on other issues. Armstrong maintains that those in power often deceive and judge others based on their own cultural norms and values, leading to misunderstandings and discrimination.
The episode recalls NATO's inception during the Cold War when it was formed as a response to the Soviet Union's expansionist ambitions. Martin criticize Western leaders for instigating conflicts and disseminating misinformation. He argues that NATO now primarily functions to propagate war fears and Russian aggression apprehensions.
The discussion also touches upon the possibility of Hillary Clinton's involvement in the 2024 Presidential election and her past role in Benghazi incidents. Martin reveals that the ambassador involved was an arms dealer providing weapons for Syrian regime change efforts. Gold is explored as a reliable refuge during geopolitical tensions and instability, with historical examples like the Iran hostage crisis and Russia's invasion of Afghanistan cited.
Furthermore, they delve into the role of digital currencies in international transactions via organizations such as the IMF, potentially replacing the dollar as the dominant currency. Mr. Armstrong suggests America's fiscal irresponsibility and taxation methods contribute to the decline of physical cash and the shift towards a digital currency system. The upcoming presidential elections and potential civil unrest and political instability are also addressed.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:39 - Politics Trending Right
6:14 - Establishment Threat
10:52 - US Gov. Approval Numbers
13:27 - Rights Vs. Discrimination
18:46 - Historic Conflicts & Lies
24:16 - Purpose of NATO
30:50 - Diplomacy & The West
32:50 - US Overcommitted Empire
35:07 - Conflict on Four Fronts?
37:50 - The Plan for Biden
41:57 - Collapsing Confidence
44:40 - Swiss Democratic System
50:19 - Manipulating Society
52:47 - Gold Buying & Geopolitics
54:52 - Digital Currencies
1:02:07 - Signposts of Collapse
1:06:15 - Gold During Uncertainty
1:09:38 - China & Global Demographics
1:12:45 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Cyclical political pendulum swings towards the left are predictable throughout history, according to Armstrong, but power retention efforts by politicians cause misunderstandings and discrimination.
- Armstrong criticizes Western leaders for instigating conflicts, disseminating misinformation, and promoting war fears through NATO.
- The true role of gold as wealth preservation during periods of uncertainty.
Guest Links:
Website: http://armstrongeconomics.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/strongeconomics
Facebook: https://facebook.com/martin.armstrong.167
Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/ybtrslr9
Martin Armstrong is the Owner and Researcher for the website Armstrong Economics. He is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.
At age 13, Armstrong began working at a coin and stamp dealership in Pennsauken, New Jersey. After buying a bag of rare Canadian pennies, he became a millionaire in 1965 at the age of 15. He continued to work on weekends through high school, finding the real-world exciting, for this was the beginning of the collapse of the gold standard. Martin became captivated by this shocking revelation that there were not just booms and busts, but also peaks and valleys that would last centuries.
Armstrong progressed from gold coin investments to following commodity prices for precious metals. In 1973, he began publishing commodity market predictions as a hobby, and in 1983 Armstrong began accepting paid subscriptions for a forecast newsletter.
"In Armstrong's view of the world where boom-bust cycles occur like clockwork every 8.6 years, what matters is his record as a forecaster. He called Russia's financial collapse in 1998, using a model that also pointed to a peak just before the Japanese stock market crashed in 1989. These days, as the European sovereign-debt crisis roils markets worldwide, he reminds readers of his October 1997 prediction that the creation of the euro "will merely transform currency speculation into bond speculation," leading to the system's eventual collapse."
His Website Armstrong Economics offers a unique perspective intended to educate the public and organizations on the global economic and political environment's underlying trends. Their mission is to research historical cyclical trends.
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David Kranzler: Bonds are Signaling a Late Fed Response
Tom welcomes back David Kranzler from InvestmentResearchDynamics.com and Mining Stock Journal to explore the precious metals market's current state, particularly during the summer months. Kranzler anticipates heightened demand in India's largest buying season despite typical decreased volumes. He addresses gold price manipulation by western central banks and institutions, highlighting the influence of eastern hemisphere markets like Shanghai.
Banks, such as JP Morgan and Citigroup, dominate Comex trading, making substantial profits through short contracts, technical indicators, and sell stops. Central banks reportedly authorize these actions, making price manipulation lucrative. Kranzler remains optimistic about precious metals, predicting higher prices by the end of Q4 or mid-Q3.
Dave shares past experiences in analyzing gold and silver markets by monitoring open interest and positions held by banks and hedge funds. He observes a correlation between net short bank positions and net long hedge fund positions, leading to price rallies or smashes. Reflecting on 2008, he recounts how the financial system's instability did not result in gold and silver price increases due to manipulation. Current concerns include regional banks and commercial real estate debt, potentially leading to another crisis and further precious metals market suppression.
Well-run mining producers are thriving amidst rising gold and silver spreads versus production costs, acting like monetary printing presses. Junior project development companies face feast or famine situations, with some easily raising funds while others struggle. Institutional investors like Paul Singer and Stanley Druckenmiller invest in larger mining stocks for leverage effects. The speaker predicts a major shift into the mining sector once the stock market experiences a downturn, leading to price increases for gold, silver, and mining stocks by year-end.
The podcast also touches upon the significant impact of Apple, Microsoft, and NVIDIA (the 'magnificent seven') on the stock market. These companies have driven most gains in the S&P 400 and NASDAQ 100. A catalyst, possibly a financial crisis, could trigger capital to shift from these stocks into the mining sector when investors need to liquidate quickly. This occurred in 2008 with Fidelity's funds investing in junior microcap mining companies due to their size. The speaker encourages precious metals sector investors to remain persistent despite current trends and anticipates price increases by year-end.
0:00 - Introduction
0:44 - Summer Doldrums?
3:30 - Mr. Slammy at Mkt. Opens
7:10 - Eastern Pricing & Effects
10:00 - Eastern Buying Demand
11:20 - Bank Incentives & Metals
14:54 - Price Predictions
17:32 - Bank Status Now & 2008
24:39 - Low Grade Q.E. Chart
28:29 - Feds 'Control' & Markets
32:29 - Buy Now Don't Pay Later
33:43 - Middle Class Decline?
36:44 - Recession is Here?
39:29 - CPI & Health Insurance
43:52 - Miners & Capital Issues
53:52 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Kranzler anticipates heightened demand during India's buying season despite decreased volumes and price manipulation by western central banks and institutions.
- Well-run mining producers are thriving amidst rising gold and silver spreads versus production costs, while junior project development companies face challenges.
- Institutional investors invest in larger mining stocks for leverage effects, predicting a major shift into the sector when the stock market experiences a downturn.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/InvResDynamics
Website: https://investmentresearchdynamics.com
Newsletter: https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/mining-stock-journal
Article: https://brownstone.org/articles/is-the-global-inflationary-depression-already-here/
David Kranzler spent many years working in various analytic jobs and trading on Wall Street. For nine of those years, he traded junk bonds for Bankers Trust. Dave earned a master's degree in business administration from the University of Chicago, concentrating on accounting and finance. He writes a blog to help people understand and analyze what is going on in our financial system and economy.
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Chris Irons: The Global Debt Crisis - A New Reality
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back the always forthright Chris Irons host of Quoth the Raven podcast host and author of QTR's Fringe Finance Substack. Irons shares his concerns about the deeply flawed economy, predicting that something substantial must occur for change. The discussion revolves around the mounting debt, potential deflationary depression, and the Federal Reserve's role in preventing this outcome.
Irons raises apprehensions regarding the US as a declining empire. He points to signs of decay, such as flawed policies, immigration issues, and societal decadence. Irons expresses skepticism towards ongoing conflicts like Russia-Ukraine, believing prolonging war through substantial financial aid is irrational.
Chris vents about political discourse, particularly between politicians Pierre Polivere and Justin Trudeau, and discusses the potential dangers of weaponized justice systems and media demonization. He urges both sides to be mindful of these issues.
Chris and Tom explore the significance of understanding inflation's impact on purchasing power and propose a visual representation to help people grasp this concept. They emphasize that gold, with its fixed supply, can serve as a safeguard against purchasing power loss. While acknowledging Bitcoin's potential benefits, they caution about its risks compared to gold.
Finally, Chris shares his approach to maintaining peace of mind and happiness amidst global challenges: detach from negative news sources and focus on personal interests, accepting that one cannot fix all the world's problems. The conversation ends with a lighthearted taco shop recommendation leading to a heated albeit pointless debate on social media about meat in tacos.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:32 - Trends & Sentiment
3:12 - Endgame & It's All Broken
9:08 - Black Swan or Grey Rhino
17:34 - War, Ukraine, & Democrats
23:13 - Optimism Vs. Reality
29:00 - Elections & Chaos
38:10 - Questions, No Answers
40:26 - Justice Weaponization
51:00 - Important Visualizations
57:00 - Finding Solutions
1:01:09 - Perspective & Advice
1:09:47 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Chris discusses economic concerns, including a deeply flawed system and potential for significant change due to mounting debt and deflationary depression.
- Irons raises warning signs of a declining US empire: flawed policies, societal decadence, and political instability.
- Importance of detaching from negative news sources and focusing on personal interests for peace of mind amidst global challenges.
Guest Links:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxUo55-0ScpOQNdug8FCzzA/videos
Podcast: https://quoththeraven.podbean.com
Substack + Discount: https://quoththeraven.substack.com/subscribe?coupon=92245385
Twitter: https://twitter.com/QTRResearch
Chris Irons is the host of The Quoth The Raven Podcast, a show dedicated to discussing Fringe Finance topics and exploring the boundaries of investment decisions. Irons has spent years reading the news and has developed a strong opinion on the mainstream media's ability to drive a narrative which serves the interests of a small minority. His focus is to provide content that is rarely found elsewhere and to curate content from people he respects. Irons is not afraid to challenge the mainstream narrative or succumb to it when it serves the collective best interests.
Chris is not providing investment advice and the content on The Quoth The Raven podcast/substack is not meant to be taken as such. Anything mentioned should not be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
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Matthew Pipenburg: This is the Last Bubble... And It's Global
Tom welcomes back Matthew Pipenburg from Von Greyerz Gold Switzerland to discusses the economic climate. Matt emphasizes the importance of understanding historical context and separating facts from biases. He believes that common sense reveals issues in various markets, leading to a potential debt crisis causing inflation and currency destruction. Trust is also eroding, particularly in US Treasuries and the US dollar narrative. He advises preparing for these changes as they're already happening.
Matt discuss the comparison of current debt levels with those after World War II, acknowledging significant differences: America moving from a creditor to a debtor role. Raising interest rates to combat inflation is less effective when public debt reaches unprecedented levels. Central banks cannot export inflation like they used to, making such actions impossible without causing unpayable interest expenses. Alarming trends in bankruptcies, unemployment, and overvalued markets are evidence of economic instability due to unsustainable debt levels.
Matt also discusses the risks associated with junk bonds, including their inability to refinance at higher interest rates and potential defaults. High yield bonds offer little yield for significant risk. Private credit pools, which hold bad loans, are a major concern due to their lack of transparency and potential value distortion.
Central banks' shift towards gold as a savings instrument is discussed, with physical gold replacing U.S. Treasuries as a reserve asset. Central banks in the East have been net buyers of gold since 2014. Matt advises individuals to save in gold instead of the US dollar for long-term value preservation. Gold significantly outperforms various assets in relation to U.S. Treasuries, making it an attractive hedge against inflation and debt.
The conversation concludes with Matt emphasizing self-education, forming opinions on the current economic climate, and considering long-term investments in real assets and commodities, particularly physical gold as a hedge against inflation and debt.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:50 - Reality, Facts, & Trust
6:10 - Hard Assets & Recency Bias
12:43 - Debt & GDP Risks
18:52 - Bonds & 'High' Yields
23:25 - Mark To Market & Risk
28:43 - Market Liquidity & Flow
32:50 - New Currencies & BRICS
42:14 - Dollar Trade & Metrics
48:25 - Perception of Gold
56:38 - Risky Assets & Yields
1:02:25 - Optionality & Speculation
1:06:58 - Miners & Other Plays?
1:12:38 - Equity Risk & Value
1:19:09 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Historical debt levels reveal economic instability; prepare for potential crisis.
- Junk bonds present risks of refinancing and defaults.
- Gold emerges as an excellent savings instrument and hedge against inflation.
Guest Links
Twitter: https://twitter.com/GoldSwitzerland
Website: https://goldswitzerland.com/
Articles: https://signalsmatter.com/
Book (Amazon): https://tinyurl.com/pvpfmy8c
Matthew Piepenburg is a Partner of Von Greyerz and the author of the popular book, "Rigged to Fail". Matt is fluent in French, German, and English. He is a graduate of Brown (BA), Harvard (MA), and the University of Michigan (JD). His widely-respected reports on macro conditions and the changing behavior of risk assets are published regularly at SignalsMatter.com.
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Danielle DiMartino Booth: Fed Doesn't Have a Snowball's Chance in Hell of Achieving a Soft Landing
Tom welcomes back Danielle DiMartino Booth to the show to discuss de-dollarization and its implications for the US economy. Danielle argues that while concerns over countries moving away from the US dollar system have been ongoing for a long time, the US dollar remains dominant in global transactions due to its vast liquidity pool and lack of competition. She advises investors to diversify during financial crises instead of doubling down on dollars. The conversation touches upon the Federal Reserve's actions, with Danielle expressing concerns about potential policy errors regarding inflation and outdated data usage.
Danielle discusses employment statistics, mentioning that hard data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) plays a significant role in revisions to non-farm payrolls and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). She expresses concern over the Fed's reliance on outdated data and potential late action. The conversation also covers concerns about risks for regional banks, rising bankruptcy rates, and imminent student loan delinquencies.
She also discusses signs of a potential recession, including slowdown in credit card spending, increasing charge offs, and decreasing employment levels. Despite some optimistic predictions, she express skepticism due to the weak economic foundation and the Fed's role in combatting inflation with varying opinions on its likelihood.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:45 - Dedollarization Trends
2:47 - Global Dollar Trade
5:49 - Reserves and Data
8:57 - Fed & Global C.B. Cuts
10:49 - Fed & 2024 Elections
12:55 - Consumer 'Health'
13:58 - Fed Revisions & Data Lag
19:44 - Bankruptcies & Inflation
23:44 - Problems Not Priced-In
25:27 - Regional Banking Risk
28:47 - Bigger Banks & Losses
32:52 - Credit Card Spending
34:52 - Deep Long Recession?
37:40 - Fed - Hard Landing
38:55 - Inflation Targeting
41:09 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The US dollar's dominance in global transactions is due to its vast liquidity pool and lack of competition.
- Investors are advised to diversify during financial crises instead of relying on dollars.
- Concerns over the Fed's policy errors, outdated data usage, and potential late action in addressing economic issues.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth
Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/
Website: https://quillintelligence.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI
Danielle DiMartino Booth is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, a research and analytics firm.
DiMartino Booth set out to launch a #ResearchRevolution, redefining how market intelligence is conceived and delivered, with the goal of not only guiding portfolio managers but promoting financial literacy. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans in analyzing the trends and providing critical analysis of what drives the markets.
Since its inception, commentary and data from DiMartino Booth's The Daily Feather have appeared in other financial sources such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, Institutional Investor, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TD Ameritrade, TheStreet.com, and more.
A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a full-time columnist for Bloomberg View, a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.
Before Quill, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, serving as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.
DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, where she worked in the fixed income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.
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Michael Kao: What Happens to Gold in a Central Bank Pivoting World?
Tom welcomes back Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager and commodities trader to discuss the policy dilemmas facing central bankers worldwide and the implications for gold. Central banking challenges, including the Federal Reserve's higher-for-longer policy and potential risks for reserve asset holders, particularly those of BRICS countries, are explored.
Michael argues against the adoption of alternative reserve assets like gold or Bitcoin due to their supply inelasticity and potential for sharp price fluctuations. The conversation touches upon geopolitical implications of central banks' search for alternatives to the US dollar, the challenges posed by illiquid reserve assets, and the inflationary environment. Michael believes we might be experiencing a new inflation trajectory between low inflation and stagflation, with unemployment currently in the middle.
Michael also discusses the dynamics of treasuries versus gold in relation to currency devaluation and central bank interventions. The effectiveness of interventions like those by the Bank of Japan is questioned, suggesting potential selling of reserve assets, including gold, to fund these interventions.
He introduces the concept of the 'Goldilocks trade' and its opposite, the 'anti-Goldilocks trade.' The Goldilocks trade refers to an economy not too hot or cold, allowing the Fed to cut interest rates without causing inflation. In contrast, the anti-Goldilocks trade is characterized by stagflationary conditions. Michael expresses concern about the widening wealth divide and pockets of weakness in certain sectors while larger institutions remain unscathed.
Lastly Mr. Kao shares his investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of information asymmetry and understanding underlying capital structures to find true alpha opportunities. He warns against commodity beta pitfalls and encourages listeners to explore different perspectives on investment topics.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:56 - The Battle of the Bads
7:43 - Reserve Assets & Risks
16:24 - US Gold Reserves & Backing
20:10 - Fiscal Dominance & Debt
24:52 - Fed Response & Guidance
26:13 - Four Horseman of Inflation
36:06 - Fed Cuts & Yields
42:08 - Weak Currencies
45:28 - The Goldilocks Trade
50:27 - Alpha Vs Beta Returns
1:00:30 - Identifying Alpha Plays
1:05:47 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Central bankers face challenges with inflation, reserve assets, and geopolitical implications.
- Goldilocks and anti-Goldilocks trades represent contrasting economic conditions neither too hot or cold.
- Why having information asymmetry is crucial for finding true alpha in investments.
Guest Links:
Website/Substack: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/about
Twitter: https://twitter.com/@UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao is a seasoned investor and retired portfolio manager with 25 years of experience in commodities trading and hedge fund management. He has a lifelong passion for the markets and a keen interest in geopolitics, which has lead him to manage his own investments and publish his views on his SubStack Website – Kaoboy Musings.
Known for his out of consensus calls that often wind up becoming consensus later on, Michael Kao strives to cut through the noise in his musings by introducing mental models from other disciplines and injecting ideas from eclectic topics. He aims to educate, encourage out-of-the-box thinking, elevate above the noise and entertain.
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Greg Weldon: Debasement, Currencies, Inflation, and Commodities - A Look Ahead
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Greg Weldon, the publisher of Global Macro Strategy Report and the Gold Guru, for a discussion on the US markets, with a focus on the economy and consumer spending. With over four decades of experience in financial markets and commodity trading, Greg expresses concerns about economic stress despite celebratory employment reports, citing labor market conditions worsening with rising unemployment, underemployment, and declining savings rates. Consumers are also facing increasing credit card and auto loan delinquencies while disposable income decreases and government handouts account for an expanding share.
Greg suggests the economy might already be rolling over, and the Fed would like to see asset prices decrease before declaring victory in inflation, despite the policy rate being higher than current inflation. Commercial real estate is another major concern, with the Fed seeming behind the curve.
Greg shares his perspective that the Fed might be showing a willingness to accept higher general rates of inflation to protect consumers and the economy despite risks of inducing a credit crunch. The discussion touches upon Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's challenges in maintaining an apolitical stance during the divisive US election year and potential social unrest leading to economic negatives. Greg also mentions commercial real estate debt due in the next 12 months, which could lead to bank failures for regional banks holding 80% of that debt.
Greg discusses the implications of a consumer wake-up call in the stock market or another Plaza Accord-like agreement among major global powers as potential catalysts for the U.S. dollar's next round of debasement. He also mentions natural events, climate change, and geopolitical conflicts that could impact currencies and commodities, particularly gold. Greg encourages being aggressive defensively by shorting the S&P 500 when the time comes and suggests optimism about future performance for platinum and certain mining shares. He believes mining as a whole will benefit from increased enthusiasm towards gold.
Lastly, Mr. Weldon emphasizes the importance of staying adaptive, not being bound by historical prices or market assumptions, researching a good Commodity Trading Advisor, importance of proper risk management, and understanding futures trading.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:38 - Heavy Policies & Elections
4:50 - CPI Understated?
6:29 - Consumer Credit Stress
8:57 - Powell & Asset Prices
10:08 - Fed Watching Gold?
12:54 - Fed Inflation Targets
15:20 - Inflation Metrics?
19:26 - Powell & Elections
21:38 - Bank Failure Risks
25:47 - Dollar Risk & C.B Cuts
32:13 - Defensive Plays
34:15 - Dollar/Gold Correlation
37:27 - Stock Markets & Currencies
39:48 - Gold Market Considerations
45:23 - Platinum Thoughts
47:12 - Mining Sector Vs. Metals
50:00 - Concluding Thoughts
51:20 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Why the economy may already be rolling over, with rising unemployment, underemployment, and declining savings rates, despite positive employment reports.
- The Fed might accept higher inflation to protect consumers and the economy, potentially causing a credit crunch.
- Natural events, climate change, geopolitical conflicts, and consumer behavior could significantly impact currencies and commodities, particularly gold.
Guest Links:
Website: http://www.weldononline.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/WeldonLIVE
Money Podcast: https://twitter.com/money_podcast
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldon
E-Mail: sales@weldononline.com
Greg Weldon is a veteran in the global financial markets industry with over 40 years of experience. He started his career as a floor trader on the COMEX and later worked as a broker for Lehman Brothers and Prudential Securities. He then became a proprietary money manager for hedge funds Moore Capital Management and Commodities Corporation. In 1998, he founded Weldon Financial and has been producing independent research ever since. His clients include top hedge funds, banks, government agencies, and individual investors.
WeldonLIVE, his flagship service, provides a comprehensive market research report, including live commentary. The service covers global economic reports, supply-demand fundamentals, monetary trends, and their impact on stock, bond, currency, and commodity markets. Weldon combines a top-down macro approach with technical analysis to offer a broad view of market trends. He provides market recommendations in sectors such as stock indexes, metals, currencies, fixed-income, energy, and commodities.
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Tony Anscombe: Beyond the Surface - The Crucial Role of Cybersecurity in Mining
Tom Bodrovics welcomes Tony Anscombe, ESET Chief Security Evangelist, to discuss cybersecurity in the mining sector. With over three decades in IT and cybersecurity, Anscombe stresses that security fundamentals remain crucial despite technological advancements. He highlights vulnerabilities from remote locations, outdated technology, third parties, and activists/nation states. Mining companies face significant risks, including fatalities and financial losses. AI's growing role in mining brings cybersecurity concerns such as AI poisoning. A comprehensive cybersecurity framework is necessary, along with advanced technologies like EDR systems. The financial cost of cyber attacks can reach $14 trillion by 2027, affecting industries, including mining. Companies must prioritize cybersecurity and involve third parties to adhere to security policies. Anscombe also touches on the ethical implications and potential international collaboration in AI development.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:30 - Tony's Background
2:03 - Industrial Security
6:47 - Potential Risks
10:37 - Attack Vectors
12:32 - 3rd Party Liability
14:30 - AI & Cyber Security
17:30 - Practical Solutions
19:50 - Capable People
20:58 - Global Impacts & Costs
24:16 - Reporting & Regulations
27:02 - Technical Glitches?
30:04 - AI Risks & Benefits
33:57 - Restricting AI?
36:19 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Mining companies face significant cybersecurity risks due to remote locations, outdated technology, third parties, and activists/nation states.
- A comprehensive cybersecurity framework and advanced technologies like EDR systems are necessary to mitigate mining sector risks.
- The financial cost of cyber attacks can exceed $14 trillion by 2027, emphasizing the importance of prioritizing cybersecurity for all industries.
Guest Links
https://www.welivesecurity.com/en/
https://twitter.com/TonyAtESET
Tony Anscombe is Chief Security Evangelist for ESET. With over 20 years of security industry experience, Anscombe is an established author, blogger and speaker on the current threat landscape, security technologies and products, data protection, privacy and trust, and Internet safety. His speaking portfolio includes industry conferences RSA, Black Hat, VB, CTIA, MEF, Gartner Risk and Security Summit and the Child Internet Safety Summit (CIS). He is regularly quoted in cybersecurity, technology and business media, including BBC, Dark Reading, the Guardian, the New York Times and USA Today, with broadcast appearances on Bloomberg, BBC, CTV, KRON and CBS. Anscombe is a current board member of the NCSA and FOSI. Tony is based in the USA and represents ESET globally.
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David Jensen: The London Metals Exchanges are the Crux of Market Pricing
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back mining executive and metals analyst David Jensen. Together they revisit concerns around the London gold market's dominance, estimated to account for 91-92% of the global gold trade. This is thanks to the Bank of England's 'regulatory oversight' since 1986, permitting unallocated gold contracts instead of physical bars. The market trades $500 billion of gold daily and 2.9 billion ounces of silver. However, only around 3.5% of London's vaulted gold is actual physical. They contrast the LBMA with the Shanghai gold market and point out the key differences.
David argues that the London market functions as a price-setting mechanism rather than one of price discovery. They discuss Gibson's paradox, where interest rates follow price levels rather than inflation rate. Central banks benefit from this control scheme due to their control over monetary policy and debt levels using gold and silver as loose policy indicators.
David delves deeper into the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), which regulates through a voluntary code of conduct called NIPPS which is under Bank of England oversight. The metals market are dominated in London, with around 90% global cash trading occurring there.
David raises concerns over the transparency and authenticity of silver holdings in Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), questioning claims against metal, sub-custodians, potential rehypothecation or selling. The actual amount of silver held and its implications for interest rates and the economy if pricing proves fictitious are discussed.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:12 - Size of London Market
7:07 - Paper Claims on Metals
8:45 - Silver a Virtual Asset?
9:50 - Opaque Market & Claims
14:44 - Fractional Reserve Metals?
15:57 - LBMA 'Code of Conduct'
20:54 - Who Watches the Watchers
22:09 - Settlement Definition
24:29 - London Vs. New York
25:35 - Futures & Cash Markets
30:20 - ETFs & Bullion Banks
33:08 - Honesty & Transparency?
38:13 - Criticality Theory
41:10 - Scales & Incentives
42:18 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- London gold market dominates, allowing unallocated contracts. Central banks benefit from opacity, influencing monetary policy.
- Questions about physical holdings vs. claims in London's vaults impacting interest rates and the economy.
- Transparency concerns regarding ETF silver holdings, potential rehypothecation or selling of metal claims.
Guest Links:
Substack: https://JensenDavid.substack.com/
Gab: https://gab.com/DavidJensen
Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/user/j_stars/
Jeff Currie Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESxpDsUmQRE
David Jensen, P.Eng., LL.B., MBA, is a Professional Engineer with a degree in Engineering from the University of Waterloo in Canada. He worked through 1993 on the F-5 Fighter Overhaul program and the Bombardier Regional Jet programs. Mr. Jensen then graduated with an LL.B. degree in corporate and commercial law from the University of Calgary and an MBA from Univ. of B.C., majoring in Logistics and Supply Chain Management.
Returning first to aviation, then, after reading Austrian School Economics, Mr. Jensen transitioned to the mining industry in 2004. First through his mining industry consultancy, then as Vice President of Corporate Development for Western Copper Corp., and most recently as President and COO of Skyline Gold.
Mr. Jensen currently serves as President and COO of a private mining company and provides strategic, operational, risk assessment, and precious metals consulting services through his consultancy, Jensen Strategic.
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