Lance Roberts' Three Minutes on Markets & Money

(1/4/23) Welcome to 2023 and a new format for our pre-market reports! A popular market axion states, 'as go the first five days of January, so goes the rest of the year. There was no Santa Claus Rally during the last five trading days of 2022, and the first trading day of January didn't go so well, either. Market lows were set back in October, and we said then to look for a tradable rally. We cautioned against volatility during the first two weeks of December, and now we're trying to establish a higher low for the markets. The sideways trading we've seen since has actually built a nice base. However, the declining top range is consolidating markets more tightly, and the challenge will be to break out of the downward trend over the next month. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our new "Before the Bell" YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/

(12/20/22) Markets broke well-through the 50-DMA Monday as the selloff continued, moderated by a little buying action at the end of the day. The next level of support is around 3700; isn't this supposed to be the two weeks that Santa Claus makes his appearance on Broad at Wall with an end of the year rally? So far, St. Nick is St. Absent. With MACD- and money flow indicator Sell-signals still in place, that suggests lower prices yet to come. The good news is trading will be light heading up to Christmas. Catch us in the New Year for a new look and a new-style report: "Before the Bell," debuts Tuesday, January 3, 2023! Merry Christmas & Happy New Year! Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F07OhECCfV8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/

(12/19/22) Remember we told you the first couple of weeks in December tend to be sloppy; this has come to pass. Markets have bee in a sideways trend since November, actually. Following last week's CPI report and the Fed's mire hawkish stance, market sold-off to break the consolidation range and the 50-DMA. The silver-lining in that action is that it sets up nicely for a "Santa Claus Rally." BUT...there is still potential for any rally to be somewhat limited. Please note: This is the time of year when professional traders have hiked to the Hamptons for the holidays, and the inmates are running the asylum, which sets up for a bit more market volatility on weaker volume. Meanwhile, portfolio manager are now tasked with year-end windo dressing, which provides opportunity for a bit of a rally to the 3800+ level. Also note, the consolidation range will provide some overhead resistance to any rally. We think there will be a tradable rally if you're willing to take on a little bit of risk. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZfX-j2sWM0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/

(12/15/22) Fed Reserve CHairman Jerome Powell left no room for misunderstand the FOMC's decidedly hawkish position, raising interest rates another 50-basis points, and promising more to come. Absent the possibility of pivoting, markets responded by selling-off, but holding the 20-DMA. The realization that the Fed is intent on creating higher unemployment and pain in the economy in order to quell inflation brings a new challenge to the 100-DMA. Markets have been trapped in a narrow range between the 10-- and 200-DMA's. $3.2-Trillion in options expirations tomorrow could produce a wide range of possible results. We think 4,150 is the most reasonable target for the S&P between now and year-end. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSSgD8uPEsU&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/

(12/14/22) The latest Fed policy will be revealed this afternoon, along with a half-basis point hike in interest rates. It will be in the follow-up press conference that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell lays out his vision for what is to come. Markets meandered yesterday with the realization that inflation IS coming down, but at 7.1%, the Fed is not going to come off its rate hike campaign. All of the previous increases, and the ones to come, have still not worked through the economy yet. Expect Jerome Powell to be very clear about future plans, and the possibility of hiking rates more than needed to quell inflation. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQ2jNTFV8JA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/

(12/13/22) The much-anticipated CPI report for November clocked-in at 7.1%, a cooler-than-expected .1% vs. at .3% expected rate, and year-over -year CPI is 6.0%, also less than expected. [NOTE: This report was recorded prior to this morning's CPI release.] Monday's markets rallied just slightly above the 200-DMA, holding firm above the important 100-DM, trading sideways for the past month. The softer-than-expected CPI could provide lift in the markets today. Goldman Sachs was predicting a 3% spike in response. The Fed doesn't like that, and this weaker number today almost ensures the Fed announcement tomorrow will lean a bit more hawkish. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsIw4naQcl8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/

(12/12/22) Remember the Big Short Squeeze we predicted way back in September? Negative sentiment and extra off-side positioning by investors was what was needed for the markets, and that has all played out as we thought. However, concern over the level of "overboughteness" in the rally, and proximity of triggering a MACD sell signal, have primed investors for profit-taking and risk reduction. What has been needed in December was sloppy action in the first half of the month holding support, leading to a Santa Claus rally in the second half of the month. We're seeing signs that upside pricing may be somewhat limited, but some catalysts remain: Tomorrow's CPI report, Wednesday's FOMC meeting, and Friday's options expirations could provide a mixed bag of influences and volatility this week. The following week will be defined by lighter trading as end of year vacations hit, and the inmates begin to run the asylum. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1Iq--THr3g&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/

(12/8/22) Getting lots of emails inquiring whether now is a good time to buy bonds, and this is not surprising, given bonds' terrific rally over the past few weeks. Bonds are now more than two standard deviations above their 50-DMA, with an extremely over-bought MACD signal. We believe there is still a little more upside in the Bond ETF, TLT, to about 114. The further the market gets about the 50-DMA, the more difficult it will be for prices to rise and yields to fall. You need a pullback in order to make an addition to your bond holdings. The outlook for bonds for the next year is significant because of the recessionary issues within the economy. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpVE9Wih1QA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/

(12/7/22) Mutual Fund distributions and end of year repositioning is weighing on markets during the first half of December, as we predicted. Markets are perched right on the 100-DMA, holding support for the time being. Very typical for this time of the year, and this is what generally sets-up for the much-touted "Santa Claus Rally" at the end of the year. Will Santa stop at Broad & Wall this year?? There's no guarantee, but all of the year-end activity does tend to provide a little more lift to Santa's sleigh...and markets. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SatNXNCSCf0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Big Short Squeeze Is Coming" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-big-short-squeeze-is-coming/ -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/

(12/6/22) Markets took a tumble back below the 200-DMA as the Fed's own "deep throat," Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal, published comments that the Fed may not only hike rates more aggressively, but are nowhere near a pivot or pause in their monetary policy. The potential for more rate hikes in 2023 sent markets lower. The reality is that the Fed is still raising rates and reducing liquidity. The recent rally was predicated on slowing rate hikes and a change of course by the Fed sooner than later. Deep Throat inferred otherwise. The downtrend line from January remains intact, and resistance levels are holding firm, and we're close to triggering a MACD sell signal. We're expecting a more hawkish tone from the Fed at next week's meeting. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHKavltZqQ0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=3 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Bull Case Has Two Problems" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-bull-case-has-a-two-problems/ -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/

(12/5/22) Markets broke above the 200-DMA following last week's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which included somewhat dovish language. But markets moderated somewhat on Thursday, touching the 200-DMA and then sold-off. Encouraged by a stronger-than-expected Payrolls Report, markets broke back through the 200-DMA, but rallied again and essentially closed un-changed. All of these gyrations provided a successful test of the 200-DMA. If resistance that this level is to be turned into support, we need a retest and breakout to the upside. Futures are weaker this morning, interest rates are climbing, and the dollar is continuing to decline. And if the pattern follows, a weaker Dollar signals a stronger market, which the Fed does not want. Bullish technicals continue, and our target remains 4,100 on the S&P. Now is the time to readjust portfolios, do tax-loss harvesting, if necessary, and use any rally to rebalance risk. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7K-r-DDok5s&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/

(12/1/22) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Wednesday implied concern about over-tightening the economy, a very different tack than was expressed just a month ago, when he said he WASN'T worried about over-tightening because the Fed had "tools to solve that problem." What's changed? Employment is showing signs of weakening, manufacturing is showing signs of slowing, so NOW he's worried about over-tightening. That's all market bulls needed to hear to surge 3.1%. But to put that into perspective, we rallied 5.5% following the release of October CPI on anticipation the Fed would slow the pace of its rate increases. But that's not what Powell said: The Fed may need to hike even more next year, raising the potential for a terminal rate of over 5%. Markets didn't hear that, however. Markets are getting a bit over-bought, the MACD Buy-signal is still in place, and markets have gotten above the 200-DMA. But with markets over-bought, it may be a little late to be chasing them; be careful! Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKEJHJAXIYM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/

(11/30/22) A bevy of Economic reports could move markets today, but the biggest factor may well be what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has to say this afternoon. Personal Spending and the second estimate of Q3 GDP are released this morning. Powell's speech is the last public commentary before the Fed moves into a two-week blackout period ahead of their December 14 FOMC meeting, at which the next interest rate announcement will be made. Questions hoped to be answered today include, 'are we making enough progress on dimming inflation for the Fed to start slowing the pace of rate hikes?' or, does the Fed remain more concerned about tight labor markets and the rate of inflation, portending a continuation of aggressive rate hikes? So, have markets been setting up for disappointment ahead of the speech today? Markets have sold off the past two days following that nice pre-Thanksgiving rally. A triggering today of the MACD Sell signal could result in some profit taking. Lots of support remains, however, at the 50-DMA and 100-DMA. A pullback over the next couple of days would not be a bad thing, allowing markets to work off some of its over-boughtedness (yes, I made up that word), and setting up for whatever potential year-end rally might occur. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKvnAJ2F3Mg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/

(11/29/22) Merriam-Webster's Word of the Year: "Gaslighting," which is what markets have been doing to investors all year. The Fed, however, has been very clear about its intention to continue to hike interest rates to stem the surging inflation. And yet...and yet, markets have continued to rally on hopes the Fed will "pivot." Markets finally got the message Monday and sold off. With the 20-DMA and the 100-DMA now very close together, there is good support for markets just below current prices. This morning, futures are higher, but markets appear to be remaining within a consolidation range. The January effect will be helpful, but the opposite could also occur, especially if the Fed continues its present course to higher rates. Meanwhile, our MACD Sell Signal is getting close to turning lower, and this has been a good indicator of market direction all year long. The risk to markets may well be the Fed's next oracle on December 14th. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPqTsRTxJHQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/

(11/23/22) Markets achieved a nice 1% rally Tuesday, with traders taking bets things will improve as 2022 winds-down. Stock buy backs helped support buying activity. The trading range remains very tight as the 20-DMA keeps moving up to support at the 100-DMA. Resistance, however, continues to fall with the 200-DMA moving down to the top of the trading range. Post-Thanksgiving, we'll be needing to see a stronger rally above the 200-DMA if we're going to get any kind of a rally leading into 2023. We're keeping a close eye on the VIX, too, because an uptick in volatility will likely signal a sell-off in the market. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EXOwXtoCTXo&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/

(11/22/22) Markets are trying their best to mount a rally during the holiday-shortened week, but are only up 2% so far for the month of November. Thats hard to comprehend following that 5% jump following that strong CPI report. Since then, markets have not really gone anywhere. With many traders out this week, there's not much activity or volume to drive markets. But as markets consolidate above the 100-DMA, it's allowing the 20-DMA to play "catch-up," and providing additional, near-term support for the markets. We're expecting some selling pressure going into the first two weeks of December, and a rally into the end of the year should place us around the 4,050 mark, which would be a good place to raise some cash and trim risk from portfolios. That's what we did with energy and oil stocks; energy stocks down about 5%, but oil stocks are off 20% from their recent peaks. As we get into 2023, all of this year's Fed rate hikes will begin to show up in the economy, and, combined with weaker economic data, weaker earnings, and reductions in estimates, will suggest markets' need to re-price lower. That lower re-pricing will likely be the last leg of this bear market cycle. When that happens, we'll want to be prepared to take advantage of the bullish shift. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3-R0KQ-Zao&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/

(11/21/22) The inmates are running the asylum during this holiday-shortened trading week, making for higher volatility on lighter trading volume. Last week markets bounced right off the 100-DMA to rally, tested support, and bounced off of that to turn previous resistance into support, with a follow-through rally on Friday. Markets are now just below the 200-DMA, and look to open a little weakly this morning. The 20-DMA has crossed above the 50-DMA, and is approaching the 100-DMA, providing more near-term support for markets. The uptrend of the markets is very clearly continuing. We continue to recommend using any rally to reduce risk, take profits, and raise cash.. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/

(11/17/22) Markets rallied towards our target of 4,100, but failed short of the goal. We're looking for some follow-through selling this morning; a retracement towards support won't be surprising. Markets are still on a buy-signal, but getting a bit extended. The risk is in a violation of both the 20- and 50-DMA. Inflation data of late supporting this market rally, and hopes of a Fed pivot, is also helping bonds. Weakening inflation is good for bonds, dropping yields and raising prices. We're looking for a rally to about 112 to 116 on TLT. We're paying attention to what's going on in the fixed-income market: Weaker inflation, weaker economic growth, and a Fed pivot are all bond friendly, long-term. Short-term, bonds are over-bought; we're looking for higher bond prices as we move into 2023. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoq2ESFdaeI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/

(11/16/22) [NOTE: This segment recorded before Retail Sales figures for October was reported at +1.3%, vs the anticipated 1.2%% increase] Markets were waiting for October's Retail Sales report, expected to be strongly influenced by data from California, which is a large consumer-state. Cali Gov. Gavin Newsom last month issued more stimulus checks to offset inflation and higher fuel prices. The artificially spurred spending is expected to have spiked sales numbers. Stronger retail sales will likely give the Fed a false confidence that all is well in the economy, and continued rate hikes are okay, which bodes poorly for Wall Street. Increasing layoffs and port closings portend a weakening economy, but that weakness could be masked by stronger sales numbers. Markets have enjoyed a nice rally, but are now beginning to show signs of exhaustion as markets continue to close positive, but with lower highs. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChJSu_oNPTw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/

(11/15/22) [NOTE: This segment recorded before PPI for October was reported at +0.2%, vs the anticipated 0.4% increase] Markets were waiting for October's Producer Price Index report, expected to come down a bit as sings of economic slowing have been more apparent of late. Yesterday, Federal Reserve Vice-president Lael Brainard hinted the Fed could be close to easing the pace of its rate hikes. Could this, coupled with the cooler inflation number this morning, provide a boost to stocks? The current rally is a bit long in the tooth, continuing now to set lower highs. Hopes that the Fed will pivot, however, is not a great position to be in, so we're recommending once again using any rally to rejigger portfolios to minimize risk. That risk being, all of the previous rate hikes this year showing up in the economy next year. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=611sSZdQnlk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/

11/10/22) [NOTE: This segment recorded before CPI for October was reported at 7.7% YOY, and down from September's 8.2%] Markets sold off more than 2% following a"meh" midterm outcome, breaking through the 50- and 20-DMA, holding on somewhat tenuously. It's important that markets rally above those levels today, otherwise there'll be a retest of lows seen back in June of this year. The MACD sell-signal is close to flipping, suggesting markets will try to move lower, short-term. If today's CPI comes out better (lower)-than-expected (it did), stocks could rally higher, staving off that sell signal. Where we close this week will dictate the markets' next move. The implosion of the FTX-Binance deal roiled markets yesterday, with many high-dollar and high-profile investors sucked into the vortex. Part of yesterday's activity was due to margin calls and selling assets to cover those calls. Also on Wednesday, a terrible 10-year Treasury auction: No one wants 'em. All of today's action will be focused on this morning's CPI Report. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbnUsWnT53E&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/

(11/9/22) Midterm elections are behind us, and all that's left to determine is who will control the House and the Senate, and will we get a gridlocked congress, which tends to be better for markets. Historically, post-midterm election markets tend to rally into the year-end. Meanwhile, the bottoms built in September and October have resulted in a rally, albeit not a strong one. The buy-signal on the MACD has performed as expected. Stocks yesterday got above the 50_DMA; markets will have to hold that today, and the next challenge will be tops set previously, just ahead of the FOMC meeting, where the 100-DMA resides also. Looking ahead, expect a bit of a uptick as Thanksgiving draws ear, and then in the first weeks of December, a bit of a softening should occur as mutual funds make their distributions, and then at the end of the year, stocks may do better as mutual funds put their positions back together to close out the year. Stok buyback will continue through the end of the year, as well, providing additional activity supportive of a rally. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GEhFE6-ExY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/

(11/8/22) Markets rallied Monday, coming off critical support at the 20-DMA following Fed Chair Powell's hawkish comments last week. A new CPI print will be released On Thursday, and if it's hotter than expected, that could weigh on stock prices as the Fed is encouraged to hike interest rates further. Markets' focus today, however, it the outcome of the Midterm elections, and what Wall Street would like to see is Congressional Gridlock. Markets achieved a close just above the 50-DMA on optimism Republicans might re-take at least one house of congress today. Additional factors could lift stocks as the end of the year approaches, including stock buyback activity and portfolio rebalancing by managers looking for a good finish to 2022. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76R4LVpVx7U&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1&t=8s ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/

(11/7/22) Markets rebounded on Friday, and are set to open higher this morning, ahead of The Big Elections tomorrow. The 20-DMA is now confirmed-support, and markets today will retest resistance at the 50-DMA. Markets are trapped between these two, narrow boundaries. A breakout in one direction of the other will likely dictate the next leg of the markets' move. The election outcomes and next week's CPI report, for better or worse, are likely to be the market movers later this week. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NiD1TFYkAn8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/

(11/3/22) The most volatile 90-minutes in market history followed Fed Chair Jerome Powell's anticipated 75-basic point rate hike coupled with hawkish language promising still higher rates to come. And, Powell said it's okay if the Fed breaks something because they have the tools to fix it, going back to quantitative easing and zero interest rates, flooding the markets with liquidity anew. Investors ignored that part, instead focusing on the here and now and future rate hikes to come on the way to a 5% terminal interest rate. Markets broke through support at the 50-DMA, now taking aim at the 20-DMA. If that occurs, there's nothing stopping the markets from retesting the lows we saw in September. Markets, in fact, haven't gone anywhere for the past several months, trapped in a sideways trading range. Moving into the end of the year, there's lots of cash on the books of managers that will have to be put back to work for year-end reporting. Stock buybacks are back in play, as well, and next week's midterm elections are expected to throw congress into legislative gridlock. We're suggesting not to over-react to yesterday's Fed announcement, but also not ignore the fact that markets could still go lower from here. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDsASyehyyw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1&t=1s ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/