Professor Clancy reviews TGA vaccine report
Therapeutic Goods administration
January 2021
https://www.tga.gov.au/sites/default/files/foi-2389-06.pdf
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Things we were not told about the vaccines in 2021
Therapeutic Goods administration
January 2021
https://www.tga.gov.au/sites/default/files/foi-2389-06.pdf
Page 4
“Almost similar microscopic lung inflammation was observed in both challenged control and immunised animals (macaques) after the peak of infection (Days 7/8)”
Challenged with infection, (unvaccinated) control animals
Almost similar microscopic lung inflammation
Challenged with infection, immunized (vaccinated) animals
Almost similar microscopic lung inflammation
Page 4
“There are no distribution and degradation data on the S antigen-encoding mRNA.”
A new therapy that uses an intra-cellular pathway to use intracellular ribosomes
We know from page 45 the lipid nanoparticles are systemically distributed,
But the spike protein that the RNA produces, distribution not tested
No data on how long the spike protein persists
Page 5
“Antibodies and T cells in monkeys declined quickly over 5 weeks after the second dose of BNT162b2 (V9), raising concerns over long term immunity”
Page 6 – A few unknowns were identified by the TGA
“Short term protection studies,
lack of pharmacokinetic data for the S antigen-encoding mRNA (BNT162b2 V9),
suboptimal dosing interval in the repeat dose study,
lack of repeat dose toxicity studies in a second species,
and genotoxicity studies with the novel excipients,
(a substance formulated alongside the active ingrediants)
and lack of studies investigating potential for autoimmune diseases were noted.”
Page 6 – Unknown go on
“Long term immunity,
vaccine induced autoimmune diseases were not studied in the nonclinical program”
Page 8
“BNT162b2 immunisation also induced proinflammatory cytokines such as GM-CSF, TNF-α, IL-6 and IL-18, in addition to IFN-γ, in splenocytes.”
Page 9
“One study found that among people who had recovered from COVID-19, 100% had S protein-specific CD4+ T cells in the circulation and 70% had S protein-specific CD8+ T cells in the circulation
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Australian government data from January 2021
TGA Pfizer document
https://www.tga.gov.au/sites/default/files/foi-2389-06.pdf
Tissue distribution (lipid nanoparticles encapsulation RNA)
(Page 44)
Rats after i.m. vaccine injection
The concentration of radioactive lipid marker reached the peak level in plasma (8.9 μg lipid eqv/mL),
between 1 – 4 h post-dose,
and distribution mainly into liver, adrenal glands, spleen and ovaries over 48 h
Concentrations were higher in plasma than in blood, with mean blood: plasma ratios of 0.5 – 0.6.
DISTRIBUTION (page 40)
The distribution of LNP-BNT162b2 (V9) mRNA or expressed S protein was not studied.
Table 4-2. Mean concentration of radioactivity (sexes combined) in tissue and blood following a single IM dose of 50 μg mRNA/rat
(page 45)
Mean total radioactivity was greatest at the injection site followed by the liver,
with much lower total recovery in spleen, adrenal glands and ovaries
The tissue distribution pattern was similar in 100 μg mRNA/animal dose group as noted above for 50 μg mRNA/animal dose,
with highest distribution into liver, adrenal glands and spleen.
Conclusions
Slow but significant distribution of lipid nanoparticles from the site of injection with major uptake into liver.
Minor distribution in spleen, adrenal glands and ovaries over 48 h.
Mean blood:plasma ratios of 0.5-0.6 indicating nanoparticles mainly present in plasma fraction of blood with peak concentrations in plasma at approx. 2 h post-dose.
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What Australian government knew, January 2021
Australian Government document on Pfizer vaccine dated January 2021 with Senator Rennick. Thank you Senator.
https://www.tga.gov.au/sites/default/files/foi-2389-06.pdf
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Contradictory information on post covid myocarditis
The Incidence of Myocarditis and Pericarditis in Post COVID-19 Unvaccinated Patients-A Large Population-Based Study
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35456309/
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Myocarditis and pericarditis are potential post-acute cardiac sequelae of COVID-19 infection,
arising from adaptive immune responses.
We aimed to study the incidence of post-acute COVID-19 myocarditis and pericarditis.
Retrospective cohort study
N = 196,992 adults after COVID-19 infection
Clalit Health Services members in Israel
March 2020 and January 2021
The control cohort (no infection)
N = 590,976 adults
Age- and sex-matched
COVID infection cohort
Nine post-COVID-19 patients developed myocarditis (0.0046%)
Eleven patients were diagnosed with pericarditis (0.0056%).
Non- COVID infection cohort
27 patients had myocarditis (0.0046%)
52 had pericarditis (0.0088%)
Age adjusted hazard ratio
0.96
95% confidence interval, 0.93 to 1.00
Male sex, aHR 4.42; were associated with myocarditis
Male sex aHR 1.93; were associated with pericarditis
Post COVID-19 infection was not associated with either myocarditis or pericarditis
aHR 1.08; for myocarditis
aHR 0.53; for myocarditis
We did not observe an increased incidence of neither pericarditis nor myocarditis in adult patients recovering from COVID-19 infection.
Myocarditis and pericarditis (21st March 2022)
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccination-myocarditis-and-pericarditis-information-for-healthcare-professionals/information-for-healthcare-professionals-on-myocarditis-and-pericarditis-following-covid-19-vaccination
In 2017
https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/circ.140.suppl_1.11463
About 2,000 hospital admissions for myocarditis
Two-thirds of cases were in men
Median age for men, 33
Mostly viral
https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/10/4/603
Presentation of acute myocarditis
Subclinical disease too,
heart failure, chest pain, shortness of breath, palpitations and fatigue.
Dilated cardiomyopathy and chronic heart failure
Sudden death syndrome
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0033062009000966?via%3Dihub
Myocarditis implicated in 12% of sudden deaths under the age of 40
Acute pericarditis
Often similar presentation
Some concurrent myocardial involvement (myopericarditis)
Constrictive pericarditis is uncommon
https://heart.bmj.com/content/101/14/1159
Can myocarditis or pericarditis be caused by coronavirus (COVID-19) infection?
It is now recognised that COVID-19 infection can lead to myocarditis or pericarditis
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34516657/
Professional athletes are an atypical group
Published online 2021 May 27
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8160916/
1,597 athletes with recent SARS-CoV-2 infection
(March 1, 2020, through December 15, 2020)
0.31% were diagnosed with myocarditis using a symptom-based screening
2.3% were diagnosed with clinical or subclinical myocarditis using cardiac magnetic resonance screening
Is there an association of myocarditis or pericarditis following COVID-19 vaccination?
Many studies have now shown that there is an increased risk of myocarditis following vaccination with an mRNA vaccine,
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2110737
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7027e2.htm
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2109730
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/myocarditis-and-pericarditis-after-covid-19-vaccination
especially in young men under the age of 40.
Many of the studies have only limited follow up ……
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More covid vaccines correlated with excess deaths
Is there a Link between the 2021 COVID-19 Vaccination Uptake in Europe and 2022 Excess All-Cause Mortality?
https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202302.0350/v1
(Western Norway University of Applied Sciences).
Conflict of interest statement
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
We primarily study a possible link between 2021 COVID-19 vaccination uptake in Europe,
and monthly 2022 excess all-cause mortality,
(i.e., mortality higher than before the pandemic)
Analyses of 31 countries, Jan to September, 2022
31 EU member states, plus Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Switzerland
All-cause mortality,
increased more the higher the 2021 vaccination uptake
Countries with more covid vaccines in 2021 had higher excess mortality in first 9 months of 2022
Positive correlation between vaccination in 2021 and excess deaths in 2022
A one percentage point increase in 2021 vaccination uptake,
was associated with a monthly mortality increase in 2022 by 0.105%
(95% CI, 0.075-0.134).
When controlling for alternative explanations
The association remained robust
2021 all-cause mortality
Was lower the higher the vaccination uptake
Inverse correlation between previous covid vaccination and all-cause mortality in 2021
(this association became non-significant when controlling for alternative explanations)
Eurostat
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/demo_mexrt/default/table?lang=en.
EU experienced excess all-cause mortality in the first nine months of 2022
COVID-19 vaccination has prevented SARS- CoV-2-related hospital admission and deaths
Lancet (5th May 2021)
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33964222/
BMJ (13th May 2021)
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33985964/
COVID-19 vaccination has side effects such as myocarditis and pericarditis
JAMA Cardiology (1st June 2022)
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35442390/
JAMA (25th Jan 2022)
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35076665/
A recent study falsified a suspected association between the two diagnoses and COVID-19 virus infection
Journal of Clinical Medicine (15th April 2022)
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35456309/
Post COVID-19 infection was not associated with either myocarditis or pericarditis
Vaccination uptake is the percentage of the total population that has received a “primary course” by week 52, 2021.
The interaction between vaccination up- take and time passed in months since the beginning of 2022 is strongly significant and implies that the mortality increases the higher the vaccination uptake.
Potential reverse causality
Could the excess mortality have caused the increase in vaccinations?
Concerning alternative explanations
We controlled for average all-cause mortality in 2020 and 2021,
divided by the average between 2016 and 2019
Relatively low mortality at one period is followed by relatively high mortality later, and vice versa.
We still observed a significant association between 2021 vaccination uptake and the 2022 monthly increase in all-cause mortality.
Concerning ecological fallacy
We are cautious about making individual-level inferences from our nation-level findings.
Excess mortality, delayed diagnosis or medical treatment
We cannot see that the issues have been more prevalent in high-vaccination vs. low-vaccination countries.
I.e., we do not expect delayed diagnosis or medical treatment during COVID-19 to substantially have induced omitted variable bias.
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Lab leak conspiracy
The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2
https://www.nature.com/articles/S41591-020-0820-9
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11582583/Elon-Musk-slams-Fauci-infamous-science-quote-refuted-criticism-COVID-policy.html
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Excess deaths, could covid vaccines be a factor
Europe excess deaths
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/demo_mexrt/default/bar?lang=en
Our world in data, excess deaths
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-average-baseline?time=2022-08-14..latest&country=AUS~CAN~NZL~NLD~GBR~USA~IRL
On 5th March 2023, v 5 year average, all ages
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-average-baseline?tab=table&time=2022-08-14..latest&country=AUS~CAN~NZL~NLD~GBR~USA~IRL
Australia, 16%
Brazil, 10%
Canada, 2%
Ireland, 31%
Netherlands, 6%
NZ, 13%
Scotland, 5%
UK, 3%
US, 2%
Bulgaria, - 20%
Czechia, - 6%
Germany, - 1%
Poland, - 10%
Sweden, -13%
UK, ONS (14th March)
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/deaths
UK, Week ending 3 March 2023
562 deaths involving COVID-19 registered
Deaths involving COVID-19 accounted for 4.1% of all deaths
13,593 deaths were registered in the UK
7.1% above the five-year average.
Excess deaths, March 2020 to December 2022
Above the five-year average in 18 out of 34 months
Excess deaths, all causes, England and Wales
= 167,356
103,585 were male
63,770 were female
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Vitamin D reduced dementia by 40%
Mosquito net distribution in Uganda, donations to this project, https://www.buymeacoffee.com/awmedicalvideos
More videos from this project, https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzsLklGgOttU3Se-WGLp7ow
Vitamin D supplementation and incident dementia: Effects of sex, APOE, and baseline cognitive status
https://alz-journals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/dad2.12404
Alberta, Canada
Known association, vitamin D deficiency, incident dementia
https://nutritionj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12937-015-0063-7
Role of supplementation is unclear.
Prospectively study
Associations, vitamin D supplementation and incident dementia
N = 12,388 dementia-free people
(from the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center)
Methods
Baseline exposure to vitamin D was considered D+
No exposure prior to dementia onset was considered D−
MCI and depression were both more frequent in the D− group, compared to D+
People taking vitamin D had less MCI and less depression
Adjusted for age, sex, education, race, cognitive diagnosis, depression, and apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4.
Potential interactions between exposure and model covariates were explored.
Results
Across all formulations,
vitamin D exposure was associated with significantly longer dementia-free survival,
and lower dementia incidence rate than no exposure
Hazard ratio = 0.60
(95% confidence interval:
0.55–0.65)
Vitamin D exposure was associated with 40% lower dementia incidence versus no exposure.
Over 10 year follow up of
12,388
2,696 participants progressed to dementia
Among them the 2,696
2,017 (74.8%) had no exposure to vitamin D
679 (25.2%) had baseline exposure
Exposure to vitamin D was associated with significantly higher dementia-free survival
5-year survival for D− was 68.4%
5-year survival for D+ was 83.6%
The effect of vitamin D on incidence rate differed significantly,
Vitamin D effects were significantly greater in females versus males
Vitamin D effects were significantly greater in normal cognition versus mild cognitive impairment.
Vitamin D effects were significantly greater in apolipoprotein E ε4 non-carriers versus carriers.
Vitamin D effects were less significantly apolipoprotein E ε4 carriers. (25% one copy, 3% two copies)
Vitamin D has potential for dementia prevention, especially in the high-risk strata.
Vitamin D deficiency, worldwide prevalence of up to 1 billion.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0002916523119277?via%3Dihub
Mechanism of action
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41430-020-0558-y
Vitamin D is known to participate in the clearance of amyloid beta (Aβ) aggregates,
one of the hallmarks of Alzheimer's disease (AD),
and may provide neuroprotection against Aβ-induced tau hyperphosphorylation
(neurofibrillary tangles)
Cholecalciferol may be more effective than ergocalciferol
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Lab leak, Senate and House vote unanimously for intelligence disclosure
Download free, posters and my text books, https://drjohncampbell.co.uk/
Oxford University
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/03/10/scientists-dismissed-covid-lab-leak-theory-feared-ban-high-risk/
Anton van der Merwe, professor, molecular immunology
Wuhan researchers were importing bat coronaviruses,
had applied for grants to increase their infectiousness
(gain-of-function research)
False impression given in journals
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30418-9/fulltext
We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin.
Bob Seely MP
It’s pathetic
You have this unholy and unethical alliance of scientists working together through highly influential publications effectively to kibosh what may be a scientific truth,
and get it pushed into the realms of conspiracy theory.
We need to be asking tough questions about the origins,
otherwise who knows what virus will be released next,
through incompetence and ambition and how many more millions it will be killing.
This is not some political game. We’ve got to find out where this thing came from.
If you had a virus that suddenly emerged a few hundred yards from Porton Down, this country would never be able to get away with it.
(Or a few miles from Camp Detrick, Maryland)
Anton van der Merwe, professor, molecular immunology
The conflict arises from the fact the researchers perform, and want to continue to perform, precisely the sorts of experiment that make a lab leak much more likely.
These include gain-of-function experiments, where they investigate whether they can enable, by genetic modification, an animal virus to infect human cells.
It is argued that this could help us identify potentially dangerous organisms in the wild and so prevent a pandemic. This seems unlikely.
What is more likely is that these organisms will infect those doing the experiments, who could unwittingly spread the virus to the community, and possibly the whole world
little justification for doing such experiments, except scientific curiosity and the desire for prestige
US position, Wuhan Institute of Virology
Case will be proved soon
Senate unanimously passed bill last week
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/03/10/joe-biden-forced-declassify-intelligence-covid-19-origins/
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/house-dems-gop-vote-unanimously-declassify-covid-origins-intel-send-bill-biden
House of Representatives
Republicans and Democrats voted, 419 – 0
Require Director of National Intelligence (Avril Haines) to declassify all intelligence
That includes,
activities performed by the Wuhan Institute of Virology with or on behalf of the People’s Liberation Army
coronavirus research or other related activities performed at the Wuhan Institute of Virology prior to the outbreak of Covid-19
WIV workers who got sick
90 days could be allowed after passing a bill
Department of Energy and the FBI
House Permanent Select Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Turner
The American public deserves answers to every aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic,
including how this virus was created and specifically,
whether it was a natural occurrence of was the result of a lab-related event
Dr Robert Redfield
former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
I still believe today that the data indicates that the outbreak of Covid 19 was more likely the result of a lab leak than as a result of a natural spillover event
Representative Greg Murphy
Believes Dr. Anthony Fauci, knew it came from the Wuhan lab and tried to cover it up.
In January of 2020, Dr. Fauci received emails that promulgated that COVID-19 looked engineered and not from the wild,
Yet three weeks later, to save his own skin, he commissioned a scientific paper which ‘debunked’ the lab theory.
He was academically and intellectually dishonest.
The truth is that Dr. Fauci and his institution funneled hundreds of thousands of dollars of taxpayer money to promote dangerous gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology without proper guardrails
Rep. Jim Himes
There’s not one iota of evidence for any of that
(Still wants evidence released)
At every juncture, the People's Republic of China government has obfuscated and obstructed legitimate inquiries and investigations into the origins of the disease
China’s approach has been deeply irresponsible and dangerous to global public health
Mr Hancock
Asked to remove passages from Pandemic Diaries
Questioned the official Chinese version
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/03/09/wuhan-lab-leak-theory-back-frame-no-10-vows-not-discount/
Simon Case, Cabinet Secretary
Concerns, they would cause problems
could damage national security
Cabinet Office
Entirely coincidental that Covid-19 was discovered close to a Chinese government laboratory.
Spokesman for Rishi Sunak
The UK wants to see a robust, transparent and science-led review and believes all possibilities remain on the table until that is concluded.
(if evidence is presented by the World Health Organisation)
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Professor Clancy, learning from the pandemic
Covid-19: insights gained, lessons unheeded. Direct link to professor Clancy’s Quadrant articles.
https://quadrant.org.au/writer/robert-clancy/
Professor Robert Clancy is a consultant physician, immunologist, emeritus professor of pathology, doctor of science, doctor of philosophy, author, communicator, and teacher of medicine. Robert holds the Order of Australia decoration.
Direct link to professor Clancy’s Quadrant articles.
https://quadrant.org.au/writer/robert-clancy/
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Marc Girardot, Unified Bolus Theory
Superb review from Marc Girardot on inadvertent intravenous administration of vaccines. This evidence and analysis demands a response from regulators around the world. If this is not forthcoming, I consider the regulators negligent.
Follow Marc on Substack, https://substack.com/profile/7635404-marc-girardot
When and How Can Vaccine Particles Hurt You? - A Visualisation Exercise
https://covidmythbuster.substack.com/p/when-and-how-can-vaccine-particles
Or Twitter, https://twitter.com/GirardotMarc
Complications of injectable testosterone undecanoate in routine clinical practice
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25637074/
https://academic.oup.com/ejendo/article-abstract/172/5/511/6660844?login=false
Covid myth buster series
https://covidmythbuster.substack.com
Intravenous Injection of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) mRNA Vaccine Can Induce Acute Myopericarditis in Mouse Model
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34406358/
Thrombocytopenia and splenic platelet-directed immune responses after IV ChAdOx1 nCov-19 administration
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35486845/
Induction of shock after intravenous injection of adenovirus vectors: a critical role for platelet-activating factor
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19953082/
Intravenous administration of recombinant adenoviruses causes thrombocytopenia, anemia and erythroblastosis in rabbits
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10738553/
A Prospective Study of the Incidence of Myocarditis/Pericarditis and New Onset Cardiac Symptoms following Smallpox and Influenza Vaccination
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4368609/
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Dr Suneel Dhand, from line doctor
Great discussion with Suneel on the acute phases of the pandemic
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Vaccine research rushed?
ovid not deadly enough to fast-track vaccines, Chris Whitty advised ministers
Chief Medical Officer gave opinion in February 2020 after Dominic Cummings mentioned Israel was planning to inoculate population
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/03/07/covid-not-deadly-enough-fast-track-vaccines-chris-whitty-advised/
Prof Sir Chris Whitty told Matt Hancock
Diseases with a mortality rate in the range of 1%
would need a “very safe” vaccine
the necessary clinical trials would be a “rate limiting step”.
May 2021 Mr Cummings
Told a Covid group of MPs
“unarguable” that the vaccine trials process should have happened more quickly.
Taken “literally hours” for a vaccine to be invented in January 2020
Government should have recruited 5,000-10,000 for human challenge trials
(Human challenge trials started in January 2021)
Preparing for a successful spring 2023 COVID-19 booster campaign
https://www.england.nhs.uk/long-read/preparing-for-a-successful-spring-2023-covid-19-booster-campaign/
Booster campaign in England, April 17 to June 30.
Adults aged 75 years and over
Residents in a care home for older adults
Individuals aged 5 years and over who are immunosuppressed
Vaccination, six months after previous dose
Millions now able to book their autumn booster
(7 September 2022)
https://www.england.nhs.uk/2022/09/millions-now-able-to-book-their-autumn-booster/
Resident Jean Rosebuck said: “I wanted the vaccine so it doesn’t go around the carers and other residents”.
Fellow resident Tom Spinks, 80, said: “I wanted to get the booster because it keeps everyone safe and gives me peace of mind”.
What about the CDC?
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/stay-up-to-date.html
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home
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Matt Hancock leaks
Matt Hancock's plan to ‘frighten the pants off everyone’ about Covid
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/03/04/project-fear-covid-lockdown-files-matt-hancock-whatsapp/
How health secretary hoped to shock public into complying with ever-changing lockdown rules
How Matt Hancock sought to hog the Covid vaccine limelight
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/03/05/matt-hancock-triumph-covid-vaccine-lockdown-files-whatsapp/
Matt Hancock chose saving face over ending unnecessary ‘pingdemic’
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/03/05/chris-whitty-matt-hancock-covid-isolation-pingdemic-whatsapp/
At points, 600,000 pinged per week (who had been in close proximity to a Covid case)
Policy resulted in more than 20 million people being told to self-isolate,
regardless of whether they had symptoms.
At that stage, the self-isolation period was 14 days.
Fortnight-long quarantine applied to both contacts of Covid cases and returning travellers.
A month later isolation period was reduced to 10 days
Scheme not scrapped until Feb 2022
Matt Hancock jokes about Bill Gates
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/03/05/matt-hancock-joke-bill-gates-covid-vaccine-conspiracy-theory/
New Variant Assessment Platform (NVAP)
Offered UK expertise to assess new variants around the world
Many conspiracy theories, were said to have been spread on by pro-Kremlin outlets.
Mr Gates did not, in the event, endorse the New Variant Assessment Platform.
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Hand washing reduces infections
Authors' conclusions
Hand hygiene is likely to modestly reduce the burden of respiratory illness,
Harms associated with physical interventions were under‐investigated
There is a need for large, well‐designed RCTs addressing the effectiveness of many of these interventions in multiple settings and populations,
as well as the impact of adherence on effectiveness,
especially in those most at risk of ARIs.
Physical measures, prevent respiratory viruses spreading between people
https://www.cochrane.org/CD006207/ARI_do-physical-measures-such-hand-washing-or-wearing-masks-stop-or-slow-down-spread-respiratory-viruses
Washing hands often
RCTs on hand washing
= 19
N = 71,210
Wearing masks, eye protection, gloves, and protective gowns
RCTs on masks = 78
No RCTs on gowns and gloves
Wiping surfaces with disinfectant
6 trials
Avoiding contact with other people (isolation or quarantine)
3 RCTs
Not touching your eyes, nose, or mouth
No RCTs
Sneezing or coughing into your elbow
No RCTs
Keeping a certain distance away from other people (distancing)
Examining people entering a country for signs of infection (screening)
No RCTs on examining people on entry
Hand hygiene interventions versus controls (i.e. no intervention)
Pooling for the broad outcome of ARI
14% relative reduction in the number of people with ARIs in the hand hygiene group
RR 0.86, (0.81 to 0.90)
9 trials, n = 52,105
moderate‐certainty evidence,
suggesting a probable benefit.
In absolute terms
A reduction from 380 events per 1000 people,
to 327 per 1000 people.
Using more strictly defined outcomes of ILI
Estimates of effect for ILI
RR 0.94
11 trials, n = 34,503
low‐certainty evidence
Beneficial effect was not statistically significant if ILI,
and laboratory-confirmed ILI were analysed separately
Laboratory‐confirmed influenza
RR 0.91
8 trials, n = 8,332
low‐certainty evidence,
suggest the intervention made little or no difference.
Composite (pooled) outcome ARI or ILI or influenza
Hand hygiene may be beneficial with an 11% relative reduction of respiratory illness
RR 0.89
low‐certainty evidence
In absolute terms
This benefit would result in a reduction from 200 events per 1000 people,
to 178 per 1000 people
Few trials measured and reported harms
very low‐certainty evidence.
Surface/object disinfection compared to control
Numbers of cases of viral respiratory illness (ARIs, ILI, confirmed influenza)
Six trials
A significant reduction in ARI in the intervention group
OR 0.47 (53% benefit)
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Masks did not prevent infection
The pooled results of RCTs did not show a clear reduction in respiratory viral infection with the use of medical/surgical masks.
There were no clear differences between the use of medical/surgical masks compared with N95/P2 respirators in healthcare workers,
when used in routine care to reduce respiratory viral infection.
Do physical measures such as hand-washing or wearing masks stop or slow down the spread of respiratory viruses?
https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD006207.pub6/full
Evidence published up to October 2022.
Background
Influenza (H1N1) caused by the H1N1pdm09 virus in 2009
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Update of a Cochrane Review last published in 2020.
We include results from studies from the current COVID-19 pandemic.
Main results
11 new RCTs and cluster-RCTs n = 610,872
Bringing the total number of RCTs to 78
Medical/surgical masks compared to no masks
Wearing masks in the community probably makes little or no difference to the outcome of influenza‐like illness
wearing a mask may make little to no difference in how many people caught a flu-like illness/COVID-like illness
Risk ratio (RR) 0.95, (0.84 to 1.09)
9 trials, n = 276,917 participants
Moderate-certainty evidence.
Wearing masks in the community probably makes little or no difference to the outcome of laboratory-confirmed influenza/SARS-CoV-2
RR 1.01, (CI 0.72 to 1.42)
6 trials, n = 13,919
Moderate-certainty evidence
Harms were rarely measured and poorly reported
(very low-certainty evidence).
N95/P2 respirators compared to medical/surgical masks
We pooled trials comparing N95/P2 respirators with medical/surgical masks
We are very uncertain on the effects of N95/P2 respirators compared with medical/surgical masks on the outcome of clinical respiratory illness
Compared with wearing medical or surgical masks, wearing N95/P2 respirators probably makes little to no difference in how many people have confirmed flu and may make little to no difference in how many people catch a flu-like illness, or respiratory illness.
Confirmed influenza
RR 0.70, (0.45 to 1.10)
N = 7,779
Very low-certainty evidence
Influenza like illness
N95/P2 respirators compared with medical/surgical masks may be effective for ILI
RR 0.82
N= 8,407
Low-certainty evidence
The use of a N95/P2 respirators compared to medical/surgical masks
Probably makes little or no difference for laboratory-confirmed influenza infection
RR 1.10
N = 8,407
Moderate-certainty evidence
Restricting pooling to healthcare workers made no difference to the overall findings.
Harms were poorly measured and reported
Discomfort wearing medical/surgical masks or N95/P2 respirators was mentioned in several studies
Very low-certainty evidence
One new RCT
Medical/surgical masks were non-inferior to N95 respirators
N = 1,009 healthcare workers in four countries,
providing direct care to COVID-19 patients.
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Virus lab leak timeline
March 7, 2020
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30418-9/fulltext
A group that has been involved in China at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which some saw as a conflict of interest
The rapid, open, and transparent sharing of data on this outbreak is now being threatened by rumours and misinformation around its origins.
We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin.
17th March, 2020, Patrick Vallance shuts down debate
UK experts helped shut down Covid lab leak theory
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/11/23/uk-experts-helped-shut-covid-lab-leak-theory-weeks-told-might/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/11/23/uk-experts-helped-shut-covid-lab-leak-theory-weeks-told-might/
https://www.nature.com/articles/S41591-020-0820-9
Natural spillover event caused the pandemic,
was hugely instrumental in stifling debate into the origins of the virus.
By the time the paper was published,
all reference to biosecurity problems in Wuhan had been removed
April 18, 2020, President Trump
a lot of people are looking into the possibility of a lab leak, the theory seems to make sense
Dr. Anthony Fauci
the virus’ mutations are consistent with a jump of a species from an animal to a human.
4th June, 2020, Sir Richard Dearlove, former head, MI6
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-chinese-laboratory-wuhan-mi6-richard-dearlove-conspiracy-theories-a9547851.html
Seen a scientific report by a British-Norwegian team indicating that the virus was man-made
January 15, 2021
https://2017-2021.state.gov/fact-sheet-activity-at-the-wuhan-institute-of-virology/index.html
State Department fact sheet
Some researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology,
became sick in fall 2019, three researchers were hospitalized before the first coronavirus case was reported.
February 9, 2021 World Health Organization team
the possibility that the virus escaped from a lab in Wuhan extremely unlikely
February 9, 2021
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02596-2
Close relative of SARS-CoV-2 found in bats in Thailand, China and Laos
27th May, 2021, Facebook ends ban on posts claiming Covid is man made
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/26/joe-biden-demands-follow-up-investigation-covid-origins-wuhan/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTxQCOj1W8g
Had been blocking what it called harmful misinformation
Three scientists from Wuhan Institute of Virology, hospitalised in November 2019, symptoms consistent with Covid.
May 26, 2021, President Biden
Orders an intelligence review
June 3, 2021, Dr. Fauci
Change of tune?
the most likely origin is from an animal species to a human but I keep an absolutely open mind that there may be other origins
it could have been a lab leak
July 20, 2021
Dr. Fauci and Sen. Rand Paul
Gain of function?
National Institutes of Health
https://www.nih.gov/about-nih/who-we-are/nih-director/statements/statement-misinformation-about-sars-cov-2-origins
Viruses studied with federal funding in China were genetically far distant from SARS-CoV-2.
Entire Wuhan Institute virus database taken offline on 12 September 2019
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/E-9-2022-000608_EN.html
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349073738_An_investigation_into_the_WIV_databases_that_were_taken_offline
On 12 September 2019 the Wuhan Institute of Virology,
took its entire virus database offline
The renewed publication of this virus database would be an important step towards clarifying the origin of the current ‘corona pandemic’.
October 27, 2022, Senate Republicans
https://www.help.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/report_an_analysis_of_the_origins_of_covid-19_102722.pdf
most likely
research-related incident at a lab in China
February 26, 2023
The Wall Street Journal and New York Times report the Department of Energy
IC remains divided on the most likely origin of COVID-19
The IC judges they will be unable to provide a more definitive explanation for the origin of COVID-19,
unless new information allows them to determine the specific pathway for initial natural contact with an animal,
or to determine that a laboratory in Wuhan was handling SARS- CoV-2 or a close progenitor virus before COVID-19 emerged.
The IC—and the global scientific community—lacks clinical samples or a complete understanding of epidemiological data from the earliest COVID-19 cases.
If we obtain information on the earliest cases that identified a location of interest or occupational exposure, it may alter our evaluation of hypotheses.
China’s cooperation most likely would be needed to reach a conclusive assessment of the origins of COVID-19.
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Pandemic started with a lab leak
US Energy department, most likly
https://nypost.com/2023/02/26/chinese-lab-leak-likely-behind-covid-19-outbreak/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/02/26/covid-19-lab-leak-us-energy-department-concludes/
Oversees a network of 17 laboratories, research in advanced biology
Overseas biodefence labs
Oversees US nuclear weapons program
Based on new intelligence,
additional study of academic literature,
and consultation with experts outside government
The Covid-19 pandemic is most likely to have originated from a lab leak
Accidental leak
low confidence
(In 2021, FBI had moderate confidence in a lab leak)
Covid-19 was part of a Chinese biological weapons programme, unfounded
FBI chief Christopher Wray says China lab leak most likely
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-64806903
FBI Director Christopher Wray
The FBI has for quite some time now assessed that the origins of the pandemic are most likely a potential lab incident
China has been doing its best to try to thwart and obfuscate
efforts to identify the source of the global pandemic.
Details of the agency's investigation were classified
(FBI has a team of experts focusing on the dangers of biological threats)
Review ordered by Mr Biden
Intelligence agencies do not agree
https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Unclassified-Summary-of-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf
We judge the virus was not developed as a biological weapon.
Most agencies, low confidence, SARS-CoV-2 probably was not genetically engineered
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Covid natural immunity confirmed
Past SARS-CoV-2 infection protection against re-infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)02465-5/fulltext
Group 1
Past SARS-CoV-2 infection
Group 2
No past SARS-CoV-2 infection
Effectiveness of past infection by outcome
Infection
Symptomatic disease
Severe disease
Findings
High levels of protection from infection caused by
Alpha, beta, and delta variants
Lower levels of protection from infection caused by
Omicron BA.1 variant
Effectiveness against re-infection with the omicron BA.1 variant
Protection against reinfection, 45·3%
Protection against omicron BA.1 symptomatic reinfection, 44%
Protection against severe disease if reinfected with BA.1 is 88.9%
Protection from re-infection with ancestral strains
Alpha and delta variants
Declined over time
78·6% at 40 weeks
Protection against re-infection with omicron BA.1
Declined more rapidly
36·1% at 40 weeks
Protection against severe disease at 40 weeks if reinfected
Remained high for all variants
90·2% for alpha and delta variants
88·9% for omicron BA.1
Data suggests that the level of protection afforded by previous infection is at least as high, if not higher than that provided by two-dose vaccination using high-quality mRNA vaccines
As of June 1, 2022
COVID-19 pandemic had caused an estimated 17·2 million total deaths
6·88 million reported deaths
7·63 billion total infections and re-infections.
Between 15th November 2021 and 1st June 2022
3·8 billion people
46% of the global population,
have been infected by omicron and sublineages.
Understanding needed for
Predicting future potential disease burden
Designing policies, travel, access to venues
Informing choices, vaccines
Estimate protection from past infection
Systematically synthesise studies
65 studies from 19 countries
By variant
By time since infection
Up to Sept 31, 2022
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Excess deaths discussion
Professor Fenton brings us up to date on the latest disappointing ONS data on deaths by vaccination status. Come on ONS, you can do better that this.
Here is Professor Fenton’s Substack article:
https://wherearethenumbers.substack.com/p/the-latest-ons-data-on-deaths-by
And his YT channel
https://www.youtube.com/@NormanFenton81
The original video link,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JnAiuJaSbY
and here is the link to the slides for the talk this evening
https://wherearethenumbers.substack.com/api/v1/file/07f14379-e678-48c8-8877-576de53bec0b.pdf
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