Analysis, covid vacines and road accidents
COVID Vaccine Hesitancy and Risk of a Traffic Crash
https://www.amjmed.com/article/S0002-9343(22)00822-1/fulltext
Background
Coronavirus disease (COVID) vaccine hesitancy,
is a reflection of psychology that might also contribute to traffic safety.
So
People that take covid vaccines are the sort of people who have less traffic accidents
People who do not take covid vaccines are the sort of people who have more traffic accidents
Methods
Population-based longitudinal cohort analysis of adults
Determined COVID vaccination status from electronic medical records
Traffic crashes requiring emergency medical care
Subsequently identified accidents from all (178) hospitals
One month follow-up
Results, (2021)
N = 11,270,763
Total traffic accidents, 6,682
Unvaccinated, 16%
Vaccinated, 84%
Unvaccinated individuals
1,682 traffic crashes (25%)
Equal to a 72% increased relative
Confidence interval, (95%) 63% to 82%
(P < 0.001)
What about
Socioeconomic status
Alcohol
Sleep apnea
Diabetes
Depression
Dementia
Hypertension
Cancer
Covid infection
Equal to a 48% increase after adjustment
Confidence interval, (95%) 40% to 57%
(P < 0.001)
The increased risks extended across the spectrum of crash severity
Results similar for Pfizer, Moderna, or other vaccines
Conclusions
These data suggest that COVID vaccine hesitancy is associated with significant increased risks of a traffic crash.
An awareness of these risks might help to encourage more COVID vaccination.
But
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iryCrHaozU&t=174s
Unvaccinated in Canada could not use, planes, trains, buses
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sandramacgregor/2021/08/18/canada-to-make-proof-of-vaccination-mandatory-for-air-and-train-travel/?sh=6569fb1fd465
Also
https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Science-Brief_Vaccines-in-Essential-Workers_20210423_published2.pdf
Vaccinated more likely to work remotely in Ontario in 2021
‘Essential workers’ had lower vaccination rates
(several pile ups in ice and bad weather)
Over 65s do not commute
So
Staying at home reduces the chances of being in an accident
Invalid title
Patient in emergency department as a driver, passenger, or pedestrian (codes V00-V69)
Total = 6,682
Drivers, 2,856
Passengers, 1,189
Pedestrians, 2,637
(Table 3 of the study)
(Therefore, unvaccinated pedestrians more likely to be in an accidents that vaccinated pedestrians)
People were considered unvaccinated for the first 14 days after vaccination
Given the study only lasted a month, this is half of the time.
So how many casualties were misclassified?
If 602 of the 6,682 were misclassified,
Any difference between the two groups would vanish (Igor Chudov)
https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/the-unvaccinated-had-more-car-crashes
Deaths at Scene
Excluded
42 deaths at scene
8 deaths were included
(550 people were actually admitted to hospital)
Therefore 84% of death outcomes ignored
This also excluded all sudden deaths that resulted in an accident
What about people not in the system
Dr Clare Craig
https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath/status/1602650802186772481
Unvaccinated typically underestimated
Therefore
Rate of incidence of anything overestimated in the unvaccinated
Rate of incidence of anything underestimated in the vaccinated
E.g. Covid cases, hospitalisations, deaths, car accidents
Or indeed, anything else
Forest plot
In all subgroups the risk is increased by the same amount (possible systematic bias)
Source data not available to public
The study dataset is held securely in coded form at the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (ICES).
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Covid vaccines protect against road accidents, or not
COVID Vaccine Hesitancy and Risk of a Traffic Crash
https://www.amjmed.com/article/S0002-9343(22)00822-1/fulltext
Background
Coronavirus disease (COVID) vaccine hesitancy,
is a reflection of psychology that might also contribute to traffic safety.
So
People that take covid vaccines are the sort of people who have less traffic accidents
People who do not take covid vaccines are the sort of people who have more traffic accidents
Methods
Population-based longitudinal cohort analysis of adults
Determined COVID vaccination status from electronic medical records
Traffic crashes requiring emergency medical care
Subsequently identified accidents from all (178) hospitals
One month follow-up
Results, (2021)
N = 11,270,763
Total traffic accidents, 6,682
Unvaccinated, 16%
Vaccinated, 84%
Unvaccinated individuals
1,682 traffic crashes (25%)
Equal to a 72% increased relative
Confidence interval, (95%) 63% to 82%
(P < 0.001)
What about
Socioeconomic status
Alcohol
Sleep apnea
Diabetes
Depression
Dementia
Hypertension
Cancer
Covid infection
Equal to a 48% increase after adjustment
Confidence interval, (95%) 40% to 57%
(P < 0.001)
The increased risks extended across the spectrum of crash severity
Results similar for Pfizer, Moderna, or other vaccines
Conclusions
These data suggest that COVID vaccine hesitancy is associated with significant increased risks of a traffic crash.
An awareness of these risks might help to encourage more COVID vaccination.
But
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iryCrHaozU&t=174s
Unvaccinated in Canada could not use, planes, trains, buses
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sandramacgregor/2021/08/18/canada-to-make-proof-of-vaccination-mandatory-for-air-and-train-travel/?sh=6569fb1fd465
Also
https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Science-Brief_Vaccines-in-Essential-Workers_20210423_published2.pdf
Vaccinated more likely to work remotely in Ontario in 2021
‘Essential workers’ had lower vaccination rates
(several pile ups in ice and bad weather)
Over 65s do not commute
So
Staying at home reduces the chances of being in an accident
Invalid title
Patient in emergency department as a driver, passenger, or pedestrian (codes V00-V69)
Total = 6,682
Drivers, 2,856
Passengers, 1,189
Pedestrians, 2,637
(Table 3 of the study)
(Therefore, unvaccinated pedestrians more likely to be in an accidents that vaccinated pedestrians)
People were considered unvaccinated for the first 14 days after vaccination
Given the study only lasted a month, this is half of the time.
So how many casualties were misclassified?
If 602 of the 6,682 were misclassified,
Any difference between the two groups would vanish (Igor Chudov)
https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/the-unvaccinated-had-more-car-crashes
Deaths at Scene
Excluded
42 deaths at scene
8 deaths were included
(550 people were actually admitted to hospital)
Therefore 84% of death outcomes ignored
This also excluded all sudden deaths that resulted in an accident
What about people not in the system
Dr Clare Craig
https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath/status/1602650802186772481
Unvaccinated typically underestimated
Therefore
Rate of incidence of anything overestimated in the unvaccinated
Rate of incidence of anything underestimated in the vaccinated
E.g. Covid cases, hospitalisations, deaths, car accidents
Or indeed, anything else
Forest plot
In all subgroups the risk is increased by the same amount (possible systematic bias)
Source data not available to public
The study dataset is held securely in coded form at the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (ICES).
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Misrepresented risk in medical papers
Professor Norman Fenton, Mathematician, Professor of Risk Information Management
Professor Fenton, YouTube channel
http://youtube.com/@normanfenton81
And Sub stack
https://wherearethenumbers.substack.com/
normanfenton.com
What is risk information management?
Thinking about risk, what do we mean by absolute risk and relative risk
Sounds a bit like the level of risk can be presented in a way that gives a particular impression of a greater or a lessor risk or benefit?
Are there occasions when a vested interest might want to give an impression of an increased benefit, or reduced risk from an intervention?
How could choosing RRR versus ARR influence the impression given for adverse reactions is medical journals?
Conversely
Are there occasions when a vested interest might want to give an impression of a decreased risk from an intervention?
So will RRR always be higher than ARR?
Why can the RRR vary between populations and vary over time?
So using one of the two measures to estimate the risk/benefit ratio would lead to different conclusions?
How could risk / benefit reporting be optimised in the medical literature?
Do you think the editors of prestigious international journals are aware of the differences between RRR and ARR?
In the case of this paper from the Journal of Expert Reviews of Vaccines
Efficacy and effectiveness of covid-19 vaccine - absolute vs. relative risk reduction
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9115787/
The original phase three data gave an efficacy for Pfizer vaccine, at preventing infection with SARS-CoV-2 of 95%, but it turns out the ARR was 0.84%
Why are these figures so different?
So is it fair to say that the ‘real world translation’ of the ARR of the Pfizer vaccine over 5 to 6 months of use increased to 3.7%?
What do we mean by number needed to treat?
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Chinese amd Pfizer vaccines compared
China
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-63855508
Big changes, all of a sudden
Live with the virus
Vice-premier, Sun Chunlan
China entering a new situation
Virus ability to cause disease weakening
Lifting most severe Covid policies
End of quarantine camps
People can isolate at home
No more family separations
Close contacts not taken to camps
Strict ban on blocking fire exits
No need to show tests for venues
Less rules on internal travel
Lateral flow tests to replace PCR tests in most areas
Lockdowns continue in smaller more targeted areas
Foreign travel soon
Cases, 30,000 +
Now
Everyone will be exposed
Will the medical system will be overwhelmed?
National Health Commission
All localities, focus on improving the vaccination rate of people aged 60-79,
accelerating the vaccination rate of people aged 80 and above,
and making special arrangements
Prof Ivan Hung, Hong Kong University
The main way for China to exit Covid with the least damage is via vaccination and three doses of vaccination is a must
Hopefully before Chinese New Year (January 22) Rabbit
Sinopharm
Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization (SAGE)
https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/the-sinopharm-covid-19-vaccine-what-you-need-to-know
The vaccine is safe and effective for all individuals aged 18 and above.
Individuals may choose to delay vaccination for 3 months following the infection.
An inactivated vaccine with adjuvant
(that is routinely used in many other vaccines)
with a documented good safety profile, including in pregnant women.
Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and efficacy against hospitalization 79%
Does it prevent infection and transmission?
No substantive data
Does it work against new variants of SARS-
CoV-2 virus?
SAGE currently recommends using this vaccine
Not yet been evaluated in the context of circulation of widespread variants of concern.
How does this vaccine compare to other vaccines already in use?
We cannot compare the vaccines head-to-head,
(different approaches taken in designing the respective studies)
but overall, all of the vaccines that have achieved WHO Emergency Use Listing,
are highly effective in preventing severe disease and hospitalization due to COVID-19.
Comparison with Western vaccines
Pfizer original paper
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577
https://www.nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577/suppl_file/nejmoa2034577_appendix.pdf
BNT162b2 was 95% effective in preventing Covid-19
Later analysis from
Efficacy and effectiveness of covid-19 vaccine - absolute vs. relative risk reduction
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9115787/
AAR, Pfizer, during the trial period,
0.84%
AAR
https://patient.info/news-and-features/calculating-absolute-risk-and-relative-risk
Absolute risk of a disease is your risk of developing the disease over a time period.
Five to six-months update, AAR
BNT162b2 3.7%
mRNA1273 (Moderna-NIH) 4.9%
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Group A strep, child deaths
Group A strep and Scarlet Fever
Most likely
Respiratory viral infections
Group A streptococcus
Invasive Group A streptococcus
Currently high rates in the UK
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/ukhsa-update-on-scarlet-fever-and-invasive-group-a-strep
Higher than normal for the time of year
UK, Notifiable diseases
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/notifiable-diseases-and-causative-organisms-how-to-report#list-of-notifiable-diseases
Week 46, (W/E 19th November) 851 reported cases
(Average is 186 cases)
Close contact, droplets, hands, food
Incubation, 2 to 5 days
Most common, 2 years to 8 years
90% under 10 years
Typically lasts for 7 – 10 days
Rash disappearing in 7 to 10 days
Should be immune for decades or life
Invasive Group A strep (iGAS)
Rare occasions,
bacteria get into the bloodstream
More cases of iGAS,
particularly in children under 10
Scarlet fever
Caused by the bacteria Group A streptococcus
Usually a mild illness
Highly infectious
At increased risk
Elderly
Immunocompromised
Clinical features
Sore throat/tonsillitis
Headache
Fever (38°C / 100.4°F) or above
Painful, swollen glands in the neck
A red tongue (strawberry tongue)
Rash of scarlet fever
Starts 12 to 48 hours after symptoms
Often begins with small spots on the body,
then spread to the neck, arms and legs over the next 1-2 days.
Fine, pinkish or red body rash
It is often 'sand-paper' like to touch (but not itchy)
Darker skin, rash more difficult to see
Sandpapery feel
Diagnosis of scarlet fever / Group A strep less likely
Child who also has a runny nose with their tonsillitis
Antibiotics
Reduce the chance of infection becoming more severe
Stop spread of infection
Penicillin V
Amoxicillin
(Plenty in the UK)
10 days
Finish the course
Home until at least 24 hours after the starting
Possible complications
Occasionally, Group A streptococcus can spread to other areas of the body,
Tonsillar abscesses
Neck lymph node abscesses
Chest infections (pneumonia)
Bone and joint infections (septic arthritis)
Sepsis
Red warning signs
Pale, mottled and feels abnormally cold to touch
Difficulty breathing, grunting noises, indrawing
Cyanosis, skin, tongue, lips
Fit/seizure
Extremely agitated
Non blanching rash
Child is floppy and will not wake up or stay awake
Amber signs
Rapid breathing
Unable to swallow saliva
Features suggestive of scarlet fever
Seems dehydrated, dry nappy
Drowsy or irritable
Shivering or complains of muscle pain
Painful, swollen gland in the neck
Baby is under 3 months and has a temperature of 38°C / 100.4 °F
Baby feels hotter than usual or feels sweaty
Is 3-6 months temperature of 39°C / 102.2°F or above
Continues to have a fever of 38°C or above, more than 5 days
In the week or two after recovering from scarlet fever
Post streptococcal glomerulonephritis
Puffy face/eyelids
Tea 'coca-cola' coloured urine
Post-streptococcal arthritis
Swollen, painful joint(s)
Later
Rheumatic heart disease
Is this a new strain?
High amounts of circulating bacteria
Social indoor mixing
Is this a post lockdown effect?
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Myocarditis after vaccination, photographic evidence
Autopsy-based histopathological characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00392-022-02129-5#Sec3
Likelihood assessment of vaccine-induced
(epi-)myocarditis
Causality or correlation?
Presence of myocarditis with temporal association to vaccination event
AND
Integration of histological phenotype, clinical presentation, and laboratory findings indicate no alternative differential diagnosis
Abstract infographic
Cases of myocarditis
Have been diagnosed clinically,
by laboratory tests,
imaging
(in the context of mRNA-based anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccination)
Autopsy-based description
We describe,
Cardiac autopsy findings and common characteristics of myocarditis,
with vaccine-induced myocardial inflammation representing the likely or possible cause of death.
Our findings establish the histological phenotype of lethal vaccination-associated myocarditis.
Standardized autopsies
Performed on 25 persons
25 bodies found unexpectedly dead at home,
within 20 days following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination
Histology
Patchy, focal, interstitial myocardial T-lymphocytic and macrophage
infiltration,
predominantly of the CD4 positive sub- set, (T Helper cells)
associated with mild myocyte damage.
Autopsy findings indicated
Death due to acute arrhythmogenic cardiac failure.
Thus
Myocarditis can be a potentially lethal complication following mRNA-based anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccination.
Our findings may aid in adequately diagnosing unclear cases after vaccination,
and in establishing a timely diagnosis in vivo, thus,
providing the framework for adequate monitoring and early treatment of severe clinical cases.
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Learning from the Pandemic
The retrospective report
Technical report on the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/technical-report-on-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-the-uk
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/technical-report-on-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-the-uk/list-of-chapters-authors-reviewers-and-contributors
Baroness Hallett, independent public enquiry
https://covid19.public-inquiry.uk
Set up to look at the pandemic
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC9eFdKVwD1ARs3j9BSoGndw
Online form launched 16th November
https://share.covid19.public-inquiry.uk/s/your-experience
Chapter 1, Section 6
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/technical-report-on-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-the-uk/chapter-1-understanding-the-pathogen
What was the duration of,
naturally acquired immunity,
and vaccine acquired immunity,
and the risk of reinfection over time?
By early 2020
Data emerged indicating that the majority of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 displayed an antibody response between 10 to 14 days after symptom onset
Throughout the first half of 2021
Following natural infection
Antibody detectable in saliva for at least 8 months,
and in blood for at least 9 months.
The presence of antibody, associated with a protective effect against infection, at least 7 to 10 months
Cell-mediated immune response to SARS-CoV-2 was shown to be detectable up to 8 months after infection
Reflections and advice for a future CMO or GCSA (for Chapter 1)
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/technical-report-on-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-the-uk/chapter-1-understanding-the-pathogen#questions-on-the-disease
Point 1
Scientific and medical advice will often need to be formulated on the basis of limited data.
Point 2
Understanding the pathogen and the disease was a global effort, particularly at the outset, and sharing data and expertise from the beginning was key.
Point 3
Gaining a clear understanding of the pathogen and the disease required an array of cross-disciplinary studies to be initiated quickly.
Point 4
Building on and adapting existing research systems and networks was usually much faster than setting up new systems, but strong leadership, direction and coordination are required.
Point 5
Viral variants, population behaviours and population immunity changed significantly over time requiring continuation of studies.
Not mentioned
State secrecy needs to be eliminated, early, open sharing of all science.
No more cover ups
Dangerous gain of function research should stop
Procurements should be on the basis of clinical and scientific need, not commercial interests
Powerful international corporations should not be allowed to influence the agenda
All pharmaceuticals should be considered, rather than just expensive ones
Powerful international corporations and individuals should not be allowed to control public communications
Early scientific peer review must be allowed and encouraged, based on fully disclosed primary data
Primary anonymised data from clinical trials must be made public for the worlds clever people to process
Scientists and doctors with ‘outlying views’ should be judged on the quality of the evidence they present
Play the ball
Further comments
Britain a 'prolonged period' of excess deaths
but not from coronavirus itself
Heart disease and cancer,
stayed away or could not access treatment
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Global death rankings
Is the pandemic over?
WHO, pandemic on March 11, 2020
https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/weekly-epidemiological-update-on-covid-19---30-november-2022
Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 – 30 November 2022
Globally, 21 to 27 November 2022
New weekly cases, stable (+2%)
2.7 million new cases reported = 637 million confirmed cases
(full regional numbers and graphics presented)
Global new cases
Geographic spread and prevalence of VOCs 28 October to 28 November 2022
94,531 SARS-CoV-2 sequences
(mostly from high income countries)
94,485 sequences were Omicron
(99.9% of sequences reported globally)
Heterogenous testing, analysis and reporting
7 to 13 November 2022 (Globally)
BA.5 and descendent lineages, 73.0%
BQ.1 (direct descendent of BA.5) increase from 23.1% to 27.3%
(BQ.1 has over 30 descendent lineages)
BA.2 and descendent lineages, 10.1% (up from 7.9% in previous week)
BA.4 descendent lineages 2.8% (down from 3.4%)
Unassigned sequences (presumed to be Omicron), 10.1%
XBB 3.8% (recombination of BA.2.10.1 and BA.2.75)
BA.2.75 6.6%
BA.4.6 2.9%.
BA.2.3.20 0.4%
New weekly deaths down, 5%
Deaths, +8,400 (on the week) = 6.6 million
In context
56 million deaths per year
https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death
The number of newly reported weekly deaths, regions
African Region (-79%)
49 African countries
Deaths, + 9 deaths
European Region (-35%)
Americas (+21%)
56 countries
Deaths, + 3,821
United States, + 2611 (+16%)
Brazil + 535 (+113%)
Canada + 268 (-10%).
European Region
61 countries
Deaths, down by 35%
Deaths, + 2,254
Italy, + 419 (-22%)
France, + 387 (-25%)
Russian Federation, + 386 (-10%)
Eastern Mediterranean Region (-20%)
22 countries
Deaths, + 40
Saudi Arabia, + 11 (-21%)
Iran, + 8 (-47%)
Lebanon, +7 (0 change)
Also
Western Pacific Region (+9%)
South-East Asia Region (+5%).
The highest numbers of new weekly deaths
United States of America (2611 new deaths; +16%)
Japan (1000 new deaths; +42%)
Brazil (535 new deaths; +113%)
Italy (419 new deaths; -22%)
China (395 new deaths; -17%).
Overall trends, down
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Money for vaccination
Massachusetts will give you a $75 gift card if you get vaccinated or boosted
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/massachusetts-will-give-you-a-2475-gift-card-if-you-get-vaccinated-or-boosted/ar-AA14H0pA
$75 gift card for getting vaccinated against COVID-19,
through Dec. 31st
Adults and children alike,
first dose, second dose, or booster shots.
Boston Public Health Commission.
https://support.google.com/youtube/answer/11161123
Vaccine safety: content alleging that vaccines cause chronic side effects,
outside of rare side effects that are recognized by health authorities
Efficacy of vaccines: content claiming that vaccines do not reduce transmission or contraction of disease
Ingredients in vaccines: content misrepresenting the substances contained in vaccines
Endemic common human coronaviruses
About 20% of colds
https://covid19.nj.gov/faqs/coronavirus-information/about-the-virus/how-are-the-coronaviruses-that-cause-the-common-cold-different-from-the-covid-19-virus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/general-information.html
Types 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1
usually cause mild to moderate upper-respiratory tract illnesses,
like the common cold.
runny nose
sore throat
headache
fever
cough
general feeling of being unwell
Human coronaviruses can sometimes cause lower-respiratory tract illnesses,
such as pneumonia or bronchitis.
This is more common in people with cardiopulmonary disease,
weakened immune systems, infants, and older adults.
Cross-reactive memory T cells associate with protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection in COVID-19 contacts
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27674-x
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20220111/common-cold-covid-protection
Cross-reactive immune responses
Common cold coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2
The frequency of baseline cross-reactive T cells,
is correlated with the infection outcome following SARS-CoV-2 exposure,
and we observe significantly higher frequencies of cross-reactive memory T cell responses in PCR-negative contacts.
Here we assess 52 COVID-19 household contacts
Studied peripheral blood mononuclear cells
(Lymphocytes as opposed to neutrophils)
T cells specific for spike, nucleocapsid, membrane, envelope and ORF1 SARS-CoV-2 epitopes,
(Open Reading Frame, about a tenth of the viral genome)
These T cells cross-react with human endemic coronaviruses.
We observe higher frequencies of cross-reactivity
Memory T cells cross reacted with nucleocapsid-specific antigens significantly
Memory T cells did not seem to cross react with pre-existing spike-cross-reactive T cells
Our results are thus consistent with pre-existing non-spike cross-reactive memory T cells protecting SARS-CoV-2-naïve contacts from infection,
thereby supporting the inclusion of non-spike antigens in second-generation vaccines.
China
66% per cent of over-80s are double vaccinated
68% per cent of over-60s have been boosted
1.3 to 2.1 million lives at risk
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/germany-urges-china-end-lockdowns-western-vaccines/?WT.mc_id=e_DM71323&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_GHS_New_Tue_B&utmsource=email&utm_medium=Edi_GHS_New_Tue_B20221129&utm_campaign=DM71323
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/984612?src=wnl_edit_tpal&uac=127834AR&impID=4926650&faf=1
November up to 26th
Cases 31,709 + 35,183 + 39,791
(only a few imported cases)
Of the 39,791 cases
3,709 were symptomatic
36,082 were asymptomatic
(National Health Commission)
Deaths, + 1 = 5,233
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Excess deaths and lack of data
More data still required on the nature of the excess deaths
UK Zoe data
The report and the data files
https://console.cloud.google.com/storage/browser/covid-public-data
1.48% in England (1 in 65 people)
1.49% in Wales (1 in 65 people)
1.86% in Northern Ireland (1 in 55 people)
1.59% in Scotland (1 in 65 people)
Less than 4 in 10 patients in hospital in England with COVID-19 in October 2022 were being treated primarily for COVID-19
Deaths and excess deaths
Week ending 18 November 2022
471 deaths involving COVID-19 registered in the UK
Deaths involving COVID-19 accounted for 3.6% of all deaths in the UK
(a fall from 4.4% in the previous week)
A total of 13,236 deaths were registered in the UK
7.7% above the five-year average
(941 excess deaths)
The rate of death involving COVID-19 was higher for those with obesity than those without obesity
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights
Those who reported symptoms with their first infection were less likely to be reinfected
2.1 million people in the UK were experiencing self-reported long COVID as of 1 October 2022
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Freedom of Science in Italy
The decline of COVID-19 severity and lethality over two years of pandemic
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.01.22277137v1
20 to 40-fold reductions during the period of dominance of Omicron compared to the initial acute phase.
Phase 1, Ancestral
Probability of hospitalization per infection of 5.4%
Probability of ICU admission of 0.65%
Probability of death of 2.2%
Phase 5, Omicron
Probability of hospitalization, 95.1% reduction in risk
Probability of ICU admission, 97.3% reduction in risk
Probability of death, 97.5% reduction in risk
Using epidemiological and genomic surveillance data
To estimate the number of daily infections in Italy in the first two years of pandemic.
Attack rate
Ascertainment of SARS-CoV-2 infections
Phase 1 (ancestral)
NPIs
Attack rate 2.8%
Phase 2 (ancestral)
Less stringent NPIs
Attack rate 11.4%
Phase 3 Alpha variant
Mid -February 2021 to early July 2021
Alpha infected about 10.1% of the Italian population
Phase 4, Delta
Second half of 2021
Progressive relaxation of NPIs
Attack rate 17.3%
Phase 5, Omicron
End of December 2021
Attack rate, 51.1% of the Italian population became infected with Omicron
Evolution of population susceptibility
Percentage of the population susceptible to SARS-CoV-2
End of first phase, 97.5%
February 20, 2022, 13%
By February 20th, 2022
a marked proportion of individuals unprotected against SARS-CoV-2 infection can be found among vaccinated subjects,
due to the waning of vaccine protection
Evolution of COVID-19 severity and lethality
Probability of hospitalisation
Probability of ICU admission
Probability of death
Evolution of population susceptibility
Natural, post infection immunity is now the main factor reducing population sensitivity
Vaccination protection is seen to be declining
Omicron natural infection had the largest protective effect
Repeat exposure to omicron (and sub variants) is likely to have the same effect going forward.
NPIs will reduce repeat exposures
NPIs will reduce exposure to other respiratory viruses such as RSV
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CDC bivalent boosters
This covid winter should be better than last
Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, President Biden’s chief medical adviser
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/22/us/politics/fauci-covid-winter-surge.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/11/22/covid-bivalent-booster/?utm_campaign=wp_to_your_health&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_tyh
Combination of infections and vaccinations,
enough community protection that we’re not going to see a repeat of what we saw last year at this time
Re bivalent effectiveness
It is clear now, despite an initial bit of confusion
United States
Nearly $5 billion to buy 171 million bivalent boosters
(Pfizer BioNTech, Moderna)
Hobson’s choice
Dr. Ashish K. Jha, White House’s Covid-19 response coordinator
Still heavily promoting vaccination
Nothing I have seen in the subvariants makes me believe that we can’t manage our way through it effectively, especially if people step up and get their vaccine
So far, 35 million people, (11% of over 5s) one bivalent shot
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7148e1.htm?s_cid=mm7148e1_w
Effectiveness of Bivalent mRNA Vaccines in Preventing Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection — Increasing Community Access to Testing Program, United States, September–November 2022
This is the clinical trial, previous work had only been based on antibodies
Benefits are mentioned, adverse reactions are not
Any adverse reactions not reported
v-safe
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7144a3.htm?s_cid=mm7144a3_w
Systemic symptoms
Fatigue (30.0%–53.1%)
Headache (19.7%–42.8%)
Myalgia (20.3%–41.3%)
Fever (10.2%–26.3%)
Reported inability to complete normal daily activities
10.6% among aged over 65 years
19.8% among aged 18–49 years
Bivalent boosters provided significant additional protection against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection
Relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of a bivalent booster dose,
compared with that of more than 2 monovalent vaccine doses,
30% and 56% aged 18–49
with relative benefits increasing with time since receipt of the most recent monovalent vaccine dose.
Staying up to date with COVID-19 vaccination, including getting a bivalent booster dose when eligible, is critical to maximizing protection against COVID-19
350,000 tests at almost 10,000 retail pharmacies between Sept. 14 and Nov. 11
Relative risk given
Absolute risk not given
What about protection from severe disease?
Paul Offit, director of the vaccine education center, professor of pediatrics, Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia
The only reasonable goal is to prevent serious illness,
We are still waiting for one shred of evidence that this bivalent vaccine or any bivalent is better than what we had
Virus continues to evolve
This should be a cautionary tale for what happens when you try to chase these variants
Celine Gounder, infectious-disease specialist, Kaiser Family Foundation
It doesn’t show the bivalents are better than the original boosters
(but still advocated the bivalent shot)
Pei-Yong Shi, virologist, University of Texas Medical Branch
difficult to measure how well the updated boosters were working because so many people now had some immunity from earlier infections,
including people who were never vaccinated or boosted.
John P. Moore, virologist, Weill Cornell Medicine
Are the boosters working better than the original shots?
Personally, I doubt there would have been much, if any, difference, but we may never know
Dr. Roby Bhattacharyya, infectious disease physician, Massachusetts General Hospital
This winter should be better than last
we’re a more immune population
China
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-daily-covid-cases-hit-record-high-2022-11-24/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=daily-briefing&utm_term=11-24-2022
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/11/24/iphone-factory-staff-offered-1400-leave-immediately-desperate/
Record high COVID-19 infections
Rigid zero-COVID policy
Cities nationwide imposing localised lockdowns
Mass testing, masks
No furlough scheme
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58% of covid deaths in the vaccinated
58% of coronavirus deaths in August were people who were vaccinated or boosted
Kaiser Family Foundation vice president Cynthia Cox
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/effectiveness-research/protocols.html
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/effectiveness/monitoring.html
https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-COVID-19-Cases-or-Deaths-by-Age-Group-and/d6p8-wqjm
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/23/vaccinated-people-now-make-up-majority-covid-deaths/
58% of coronavirus deaths in August were people who were vaccinated or boosted
(people who had completed at least their primary series of vaccines)
Therefore 42% coronavirus deaths in August were people who were unvaccinated
First time there were more deaths covid deaths in the vaccinated versus the unvaccinated
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-people-booster-percent-pop5
In September 2021
Vaccinated people, 23% of coronavirus fatalities
In January and February 2022
Vaccinated people, 42% of coronavirus fatalities
We can no longer say this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated
(who conducted the analysis on behalf of the Post)
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7144a3.htm?s_cid=mm7144a3_w
Safety Monitoring of Bivalent COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine Booster Doses Among Persons Aged ≥12 Years — United States, August 31–October 23, 2022
On August 31, 2022
FDA authorized bivalent, Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna
mRNA encoding the spike protein from original strain of SARS-CoV-2,
and from Omicron BA.4 and BA.5
Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended,
all persons ≥12 years receive an age-appropriate bivalent mRNA booster dose
v-safe
a voluntary smartphone-based U.S. safety surveillance system,
established by CDC to monitor adverse events after COVID-19 vaccination
As of 3rd October, 10 million users
https://icandecide.org/press-release/breaking-news-ican-obtains-cdc-v-safe-data/
Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS)
Total data, August 31–October 23, 2022
14.4 million received a bivalent Pfizer-BioNTech
8.2 million adults (≥18 years) a bivalent Moderna booster dose
v-safe, among the 211,959 registrants (aged ≥12 years)
August 31–October 23, 2022
Reported in the week after vaccination
Injection site reactions, 60.8%
Systemic reactions, 54.8%
Fewer than 1% of v-safe registrants reported receiving medical care
Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS)
5,542 reports of adverse events after bivalent booster vaccination (≥12 years)
95.5% of reports were nonserious
4.5% were serious events
Health care providers and patients can be reassured that adverse events reported after a bivalent booster dose are consistent with those reported after monovalent doses.
Relative risk
Absolute risk not given
Health impacts after COVID-19 vaccination are less frequent and less severe than those associated with COVID-19 illness (2).
Relative risk
Absolute risk not given
This is their Reference 2
Block JP, Boehmer TK, Forrest CB, et al. Cardiac complications after SARS-CoV-2 infection and mRNA COVID-19 vaccination—PCORnet, United States, January 2021–January 2022. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2022;71:517–23. https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7114e1 PMID:35389977
myocarditis; myocarditis or pericarditis; and myocarditis, pericarditis, or MIS,
within 7-day or 21-day risk windows after the index date
Comparisons between after vaccine and after infection
Relative risk
Absolute risk not given
Review of v-safe Data
During August 31–October 23, 2022
211,959 v-safe registrants had a bivalent booster
1,464 (0.7%) were aged 12–17 years
68,592 (32.4%) were aged 18–49 years
59,209 (27.9%) were aged 50–64 years
82.694 (39.0%) were aged ≥65 years
Fourth dose
96,241; 45.4%
Fifth dose
106,423; 50.2%
In the week after receipt of the bivalent booster dose
Local injection site reactions
49.7% among aged ≥65
72.9% among aged 18–49
Systemic reactions
43.5% among aged ≥65
67.9% among aged 18–49
Systemic symptoms
Fatigue (30.0%–53.1%)
Headache (19.7%–42.8%)
Myalgia (20.3%–41.3%)
Fever (10.2%–26.3%)
Reported inability to complete normal daily activities
10.6% among aged ≥65 years
19.8% among aged 18–49 years
Receipt of medical care
Reported by 0.8% of registrants
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Lab leak early cover up
I feel let down and apologise if I have misled anyone
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30418-9/fulltext
We are public health scientists who have closely followed the emergence of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19)
and are deeply concerned about its impact on global health and wellbeing.
We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin.
https://www.nature.com/articles/S41591-020-0820-9
Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus.
Conclusion
Obtaining related viral sequences from animal sources would be the most definitive way of revealing viral origins.
(Fully formed or evolutionary intermediate)
UK experts helped shut down Covid lab leak theory
- weeks after being told it might be true
Sir Patrick Vallance among scientists behind paper that stifled debate into the origins of the virus
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/11/23/uk-experts-helped-shut-covid-lab-leak-theory-weeks-told-might/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpZz9rCz3Co
Top scientists including Sir Patrick Vallance,
Were warned that virus could have evolved in lab animals
Collaborated in above paper
Debate therefore stifled
To date
Proximal origins paper
Accessed more than 5.7 million times and cited in 2,627 subsequent papers.
Emails from early 2020
FoI request, James Tobias, freelance journalist
Authors held lengthy discussions with experts, Sir Patrick and Sir Jeremy Farrar, head of the Wellcome Trust
Warned WIV had been carrying out research on bat-coronaviruses,
at worrying levels of biosecurity.
Research to alter Sars-like bat coronaviruses had been taking place for many years in Wuhan
(not mentioned in paper)
Sir Jeremy Farrar, (Wellcome)
Wuhan was like the "Wild West".
Prof Kristian Andersen, Scripps Research Institute La Jolla, California (lead author)
had earlier told colleagues that features of the virus looked as if they’d been engineered in a lab.
(No mention of this was made in the paper)
Dr Jeremy Farrar, (Wellcome)
It is important that we understand how all pathogens emerge so that we can prevent future pandemics
as the efforts to gather evidence continue, it is important to stay open-minded
Serial passaging
Would cause the virus to contain o-glycans
The second notable feature of SARS-CoV-2 is a polybasic cleavage site (RRAR) at the junction of S1 and S2
Prof Ron Fouchier, Dutch virologist
(from another e mail chain)
It is good that this possibility was discussed in detail with a team of experts.
However, further debate about such accusations would unnecessarily distract top researchers from active duties,
and do unnecessary harm to science in general and science in China in particular
February 8th e mail Prof Edward Holmes
(one of the authors)
Ever since this outbreak started there have been suggestions that the virus escaped from the Wuhan lab,
if only because of the coincidence of where the outbreak occurred and the location of the lab.
I do a lot of work in China and I can tell you a lot of people there believe this and believe they are being lied to
Prof Kristian Andersen, February 8th
(Lead author)
Passage of Sars-live coronaviruses have been going on for several years and more specifically in Wuhan under BSL-2 conditions
BSL-2 laboratories are used to study moderate-risk infectious agents or toxins such as salmonella.
Serious diseases should be handled in BSL-3 or 4 labs.
Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV)
Importing bat coronaviruses from areas of China which hold the closest viruses to Covid-19
Had also applied for funding to manipulate viruses by inserting a furin cleavage site (FCS)
The email chain
Involved Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID),
an organisation which was funding research at the Wuhan lab.
Senate report on viral origins
the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 that resulted in the COVID-19 pandemic was most likely the result of a research-related incident
https://www.help.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/report_an_analysis_of_the_origins_of_covid-19_102722.pdf
https://asiatimes.com/2022/10/new-evidence-firmly-revives-wuhan-lab-origin-theory/
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/364599030_Endonuclease_fingerprint_indicates_a_synthetic_origin_of_SARS-CoV-2
Dec. 20, 2019 to Jan. 18, 2020
Searches for flu-like symptoms
Differs from Previous Natural Zoonotic Spill overs
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)
Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)
Lack of intermediate bats to humans
Influenza
H7N9 (2019) multiple independent introductions across multiple locations
Geographically disparate, independent spill overs of H7N9
SARS epidemic (2003 – 2004)
At least five independent spill overs of the SARS virus into humans
Live animal markets followed by human to human
Additional independent subsequent spill over infections in humans
Civets identified within 6 months
Evolutionary history, animals and humans
Geo-temporal spread of COVID-19 in China, December 31, 2019 to February 11, 2020
Earliest identified SARS-CoV-2 well-adapted for human-to-human transmission
Early SARS-CoV-2 variants had little genetic diversity
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How to spot cancer early
Cancer, early warning signs
https://drjohncampbell.co.uk/
Any unexplained bleeding
Haematuria, any blood in the urine is abnormal, frank or occult
Females, check again in 2 weeks
Haematemesis
Blood in sputum
Melaena / PR
Again, frank or occult
PV, between periods, after sex post menopause
(no matter how much blood or what colour it is)
Nasal
Bruising
Discharges
Usually indicate infection
Tumours distort and block normal anatomy
Chest infections
Chronic cough
Urethra
Nipple
Vaginal
Change in bowel or bladder habits
Changes in defecation, frequency, consistency, constipation, diarrhoea, shape, colour, mucous
Colour, dark or pale (head of pancreas)
Floaty
Dark urine
Abdominal bloating or swelling
Persistent heart burn / indigestion
Persistent bloating, anorexia
Changes in bladder emptying habits
LUTS
Thickening of tissue or a lump
Tumours near body surface
(Breast, testicular)
Swollen lymph nodes
Nagging cough or hoarseness
Lung, laryngeal cancer, thyroid
A sore / wound which does not heal
Malignant ulceration
Lesion getting bigger
Increasing pain
Unexpected bleeding
Basal cell carcinoma (rodent ulcer)
Non-melanoma skin cancers (NMSCs)
New mole or changes to a mole
Mouth or tongue ulcer (> 3 weeks)
Obvious change in a wart or mole
A, asymmetry
B, borders
C, colour
D, > 6mm or increasing
E, elevation
Malignant melanoma may demonstrate all of the above features.
Indigestion or difficulty in swallowing
Feeling of pressure, throat or chest
Dysphagia, oesophagus or fundus of the stomach.
Also
Night sweats or fever
Fatigue
Unexplained weight loss
Unexplained pains or ache
New blood clots, deep venous thrombosis
Bone pain
Intercurrent infection
Cancer research UK
https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/about-cancer/cancer-symptoms
What is normal for you, is this a change?
Lasting longer
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Excess deaths, lack of data
Download free high-res PDFs of the posters, download free copies of my two text books.
https://drjohncampbell.co.uk/
Australia, Key statistics
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/provisional-mortality-statistics/latest-release
In 2022, there were 111,008 deaths that occurred by 31 July,
and were registered by 30 September, which is 16,375
(17.3%) more than the historical average.
In July there were 17,936 deaths,
2,503 (16.2%) above the historical average.
There were 300 (22.5%) fewer deaths due to COVID-19 in August than July.
https://www.bhf.org.uk/what-we-do/news-from-the-bhf/news-archive/2022/november/extreme-heart-care-disruption-linked-to-excess-deaths-involving-heart-disease
Since the pandemic began
Over 30,000 excess deaths involving heart disease
(average over 230 additional deaths a week)
Heart disease is among the most prominent diseases involved in the high numbers of excess deaths since the start of the pandemic.
While Covid-19 infection was likely a significant factor
Covid infections no longer a driving force
https://www.cancer.gov/news-events/press-releases/2021/covid-19-pandemic-disparities-excess-deaths
Meredith S. Shiels, Infections and Immunoepidemiology, NCI Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics
Focusing on COVID-19 deaths alone without examining total excess deaths
—that is, deaths due to non-COVID-19 causes as well as to COVID-19
—may underestimate the true impact of the pandemic
https://www.cdc.gov/cancer/dcpc/research/update-on-cancer-deaths/index.htm
https://www.cancerresearchuk.org
https://news.cancerresearchuk.org/2020/07/21/why-its-difficult-to-estimate-the-number-of-extra-cancer-deaths-caused-by-service-disruption-during-covid-19/
July, 2022
3,600 to 60,000 excess cancer deaths so far
https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/about-cancer/cancer-symptoms
Excess mortality in England and English regions: December 2022 update
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/11/20/true-impact-covid-cancer-patients-revealed-excess-deaths-soar
https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/office-for-health-improvement-and-disparities
https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9
25 to 49 years
Based on 2015 to 2019 data
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G20 / WHO power grab, vaccinations and travel
G20 Bali Leaders’ Declaration
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Japan, India, Indonesia, Italy, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, and European Union.
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022/11/16/g20-bali-leaders-declaration/
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/11/16/g20-bali-leaders-declaration/
Section 22
We recognize that the extensive COVID-19 immunization is a global public good
Section 23
We recognize the need for strengthening local and regional health product manufacturing capacities
We support the WHO mRNA Vaccine Technology Transfer hub
We acknowledge the importance of shared technical standards and verification methods,
to facilitate seamless international travel,
interoperability, and recognizing digital solutions and non-digital solutions,
including proof of vaccinations.
Establishment of trusted global digital health networks,
that should capitalize and build on the success of the existing standards and digital COVID-19 certificates.
Part 24
The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the transformation of the digital ecosystem and digital economy.
We recognize the importance of digital transformation in reaching the SDGs.
We also reaffirm the role of data for development, economic growth and social well-being.
G20 update
https://www.g20.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/2022-G20-Bali-Update.pdf
“Endeavour to move towards interoperability of systems including mechanisms that validate proof of vaccination,
whilst respecting the sovereignty of national health policies,
and relevant national regulations such as personal data protection and data-sharing.”
Indonesia’s Minister of Health Budi Gunadi Sadikin
https://twitter.com/TimHinchliffe/status/1592232822483419138
G20 countries should adopt digital health certificate using WHO standards
Let’s have a digital health certificate acknowledged by WHO — if you have been vaccinated or tested properly — then you can move around
(next World Health Assembly in Geneva)
WHO seem to be on it already
https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/WHO-2019-nCoV-Digital_certificates-vaccination-2021.1
Digital documentation of COVID-19 certificates: vaccination status: technical specifications and implementation guidance, 27 August 2021
Use of scan codes
Klaus Schwab, World Economic Forum (WEF) Chair
Attended
From a doctor in Austria
It is currently a very emotional situation in my hospital
(and in general in hospitals in Austria)
because many of us in the health care sector are more or less forced to get a fourth vaccine dose.
Even in my case as a physician who has received three doses and one infection just 6 months ago.
The rule is that if the last vaccination is more than one year and/or the last infection is more than 6 months ago you either have to test all 72 hours or to get an additional vaccine dose;
if not you are at risk of having to pay 500 to 3600 Euros and may even get fired.
Vaccine passports
https://lc.org/newsroom/details/111722-world-leaders-agree-to-implement-vaccine-passports-1
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Safe and effective
Association between vitamin D supplementation and COVID-19 infection and mortality
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-24053-4
(12th November 2022)
Johns Hopkins
University of Michigan
National Bureau of Economic Research
Department of Medicine, University of Chicago
Department of Veterans Health Affairs
Department of Medicine, University of Chicago, Chicago
Vitamin D deficiency, associated with reduced immune function,
can lead to viral infection
Vitamin D deficiency, associated, increases the risk of COVID-19
But is it a treatment / prognosis improver?
Population of US veterans, we show that Vitamin D2 and D3 fills
Associated with reductions in COVID-19 infection
After applying all restrictions
220,265 supplemented with vitamin D3
34,710 supplemented with vitamin D2
407,860 untreated patients.
Study design
Retrospective cohort
Supplemented (before and during the pandemic),
versus untreated controls
One to one matches
D2, D3, or calcifediol
Veterans Administration Corporate Data Warehouse (CDW) electronic health records.
Vitamin D levels typically respond to treatment following two months of exposure
D3 cohort
COVID-19 rates for the treated
= 2.66%
COVID-19 rates for the untreated = 3.30%
D3 20%, reduction
D2 28% reduction
Mortality within 30-days of COVID-19 infection
Infection ending in mortality within 30 days
D3 group
Treated group death rate after infection = 0.23%
Untreated group death rate after infection = 0.35%
Vitamin D3 33% mortality lower (HR, 67%)
P < 0.001
Vitamin D2 25% lower (HR, 75%) (but not significant)
Veterans receiving higher dosages of Vitamin D obtained greater benefits from supplementation than veterans receiving lower dosages.
Vitamin D blood levels between 0 and 19 ng/ml,
exhibited the largest decrease in COVID-19 infection and mortality following supplementation
(0–19 ng/ml, 20–39 ng/ml, and 40 + ng/ml)
Dosage options, 20 IU, 40 IU, 100 IU, 125 IU, 200 IU, 250 IU, 400 IU, 500 IU, 800 IU, 1000 IU, 2000 IU, 5000 IU, 8000 IU, and 50,000 IU
Black veterans received greater associated COVID-19 risk reductions,
with supplementation than White veterans
As a safe, widely available, and affordable treatment, Vitamin D may help to reduce the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic.
More background
Vitamin D insufficiency and deficiency affect approximately half of the US population,
with increased rates in people with darker skin,
reduced sun exposure,
people living in higher latitudes in the winter,
nursing home residents,
and healthcare workers
Populations with low levels of Vitamin D have also experienced higher rates of COVID-19
New mechanism
Vitamin D is needed to allow T helper cells to control and reduce Interferon gamma (IFN-γ) production
Conclusions
These associated reductions in risk are substantial and justify more significant exploration and confirmation using RCTs.
This is particularly important given the high rates of vitamin D deficiency in the US population and COVID-19.
Extrapolate, D3 supplementation to the entire US population in 2020
4 million fewer COVID-19 cases (19,860,000 actual cases)
116,000 deaths avoided (351,999 actual deaths)
Given our findings,
the absence of severe side effects,
the widespread availability of vitamin D3 at low cost,
vitamin D3 presents a unique opportunity to reduce the spread and severity of the COVID-19 pandemic.
K2, MK-7
Supplement, probably 100 micrograms per day
Nato, 1,000 micrograms per 100 g
Cheese, typically 50 micrograms per 100 g
Safe and effective
UK, GP incentives to vaccinate
Home, £30
Standard reimbursement to Primary Care Networks (which then gets passed to GPs) £15
New contract, £12.58 each
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UK long term sickness increases
Excess deaths AND long-term sickness dramatically increased in the UK
New Hope Children's Centre
This is a great organisation I have been involved with for 12 years now. I fully attest to the veracity and dedication of all the staff I have met. The founder is Anne Chege, who my brother and I know well. Anne worked with Barclays Bank for 28 years, looking after orphans and abandoned children within her own home. On retirement she opened this centre and has dedicated her life to the work.
To contribute to this work,
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/newhopechi3
Zoe data
https://console.cloud.google.com/storage/browser/covid-public-data
Prevalence
One in 29
One in 40 (2.43%)
Since the end of June 2022, mostly Omicron variant BA.5
Antibodies, 95.8% of adults in England
ONS (11th November)
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/deaths
Long COVID not main factor in long-term sickness increase
10 November 2022
Since the pandemic in the UK,
Number of people out of work because of long-term sickness has risen by around 363,000
The number of people on long-term sick
other health problems or disabilities,
between April and June 2022,
was 97,000 higher than the same period in 2019.
A 41% increase
UK covid deaths, week ending 28 October 2022
717 deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19) registered in the UK
Previous week, 737
Excess deaths in the UK, ending 28 October 2022
Deaths registered in the UK, 12,861
12.5% above the five-year average
(1,430 excess deaths).
Deaths involving COVID-19 accounted for 5.6% of all UK deaths
UK official data
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk
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UK Parliament and vaccine safty debate
Official UK government report on the debate
https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2022-10-24/debates/FF880636-BC3B-4BDB-A5E0-D6D4B82B2888/Covid-19VaccinesSafety
Official UK Government YouTube channel, the debate in full for those interested
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfgGCgxGYkk
Oracle films, safe and effective
https://www.oraclefilms.com/safeandeffective
A few of John’s notes on immunity
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Acquired or adaptive immunity only develops after there has been contact with a particular antigen. An individual is said to be immune to a particular pathogen when it may be introduced into the body, without causing illness. In contrast to innate immunity, the immune system is changed as a result of exposure to a particular antigen.
Acquired immunity is specific to a particular antigen. For example, previous exposure to the measles virus will have allowed the immune system to adapt, generating immunity to any future measles infection. However, because the response is specific, the individual may still suffer from mumps, influenza, or indeed any other antigenic organism it has not previously been exposed to.
Antigens (antibody generators)
An antigen is anything the immune system recognises as being foreign. When detected, antigens generate an immune response in the body. It is antigens which stimulate the production of antibodies, which are the immune proteins. Usually an antigen is a foreign protein that the body recognises as non-self. The outer coatings of bacteria and viruses contain such foreign proteins. Non-protein large molecules (with a molecular mass of over 1000) will also be antigenic if introduced into the body. So a wide variety of living and non living things can act as antigens; such things are said to possess antigenicity. The specific component of an antigen the immune system recognises as foreign is termed an epitope.
Cells involved in adaptive immunity
The important classification of white cells involved in adaptive immunity is the small lymphocytes. Small lymphocytes have a large nucleus with only a small area of cytoplasm. In addition to being found in the blood, there are many small lymphocytes in the structures of the lymphatic system, such as the spleen, tonsils and lymph nodes.
Small lymphocytes are able to recognise antigenic material, this is essential if they are to mount an immune response. It is estimated that small lymphocytes are capable of producing 100 million different shapes of surface receptors in order to recognise 100 million different forms of antigen. This diversity seems to allow the immune system to recognise all of the possible antigens on the surface of the planet.
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Covid not causing myocarditis
The Incidence of Myocarditis and Pericarditis in Post COVID-19 Unvaccinated Patients-A Large Population-Based Study
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35456309/
https://www.mdpi.com/journal/jcm
Myocarditis and pericarditis, post-acute cardiac sequelae of COVID-19 infection,
arising from adaptive immune responses.
? incidence
Retrospective cohort study
Study group, had infection
N = 196,992 adults after COVID-19 infection
(Clalit Health Services)
March 2020 to January 2021
Inpatient myocarditis and pericarditis diagnoses,
from day 10 after positive PCR
Israeli vaccination program initiated on 20 December 2020
Follow-up was censored on 28 February 2021
Control cohort, never infected
N = 590,976 adults,
with at least one negative PCR and no positive PCR
(age- and sex-matched)
Calculated backward from 15 December 2020
Results
Post-COVID-19 group
Nine post-COVID-19 patients developed myocarditis (0.0046%)
Eleven diagnosed with pericarditis (0.0056%)
Control group, never covid infected
27 developed myocarditis (0.0046%) P = 1
52 developed pericarditis (0.0088%) P = 0.17
Adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]
Myocarditis, male (aHR 4.42)
(regardless of previous COVID-19 infection)
Pericarditis, male (aHR 1.93)
Peripheral vascular disease, (aHR 4.20)
Follow up
Median, 4.1 months
Covid cohort, 700,040 person-months
Non covid cohort, 2,100,077 person-months
Conclusions
Post COVID-19 infection was not associated with myocarditis (aHR 1.08)
Post COVID-19 infection was not associated with pericarditis (aHR 0.53)
We did not observe an increased incidence of neither pericarditis nor myocarditis in adult patients recovering from COVID-19 infection.
Our data suggest that there is no increase in the incidence of myocarditis and pericarditis in COVID-19 recovered patients,
compared to uninfected matched controls.
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