Dr. John Campbell

COVID Vaccine Hesitancy and Risk of a Traffic Crash https://www.amjmed.com/article/S0002-9343(22)00822-1/fulltext Background Coronavirus disease (COVID) vaccine hesitancy, is a reflection of psychology that might also contribute to traffic safety. So People that take covid vaccines are the sort of people who have less traffic accidents People who do not take covid vaccines are the sort of people who have more traffic accidents Methods Population-based longitudinal cohort analysis of adults Determined COVID vaccination status from electronic medical records Traffic crashes requiring emergency medical care Subsequently identified accidents from all (178) hospitals One month follow-up Results, (2021) N = 11,270,763 Total traffic accidents, 6,682 Unvaccinated, 16% Vaccinated, 84% Unvaccinated individuals 1,682 traffic crashes (25%) Equal to a 72% increased relative Confidence interval, (95%) 63% to 82% (P < 0.001) What about Socioeconomic status Alcohol Sleep apnea Diabetes Depression Dementia Hypertension Cancer Covid infection Equal to a 48% increase after adjustment Confidence interval, (95%) 40% to 57% (P < 0.001) The increased risks extended across the spectrum of crash severity Results similar for Pfizer, Moderna, or other vaccines Conclusions These data suggest that COVID vaccine hesitancy is associated with significant increased risks of a traffic crash. An awareness of these risks might help to encourage more COVID vaccination. But https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iryCrHaozU&t=174s Unvaccinated in Canada could not use, planes, trains, buses https://www.forbes.com/sites/sandramacgregor/2021/08/18/canada-to-make-proof-of-vaccination-mandatory-for-air-and-train-travel/?sh=6569fb1fd465 Also https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Science-Brief_Vaccines-in-Essential-Workers_20210423_published2.pdf Vaccinated more likely to work remotely in Ontario in 2021 ‘Essential workers’ had lower vaccination rates (several pile ups in ice and bad weather) Over 65s do not commute So Staying at home reduces the chances of being in an accident Invalid title Patient in emergency department as a driver, passenger, or pedestrian (codes V00-V69) Total = 6,682 Drivers, 2,856 Passengers, 1,189 Pedestrians, 2,637 (Table 3 of the study) (Therefore, unvaccinated pedestrians more likely to be in an accidents that vaccinated pedestrians) People were considered unvaccinated for the first 14 days after vaccination Given the study only lasted a month, this is half of the time. So how many casualties were misclassified? If 602 of the 6,682 were misclassified, Any difference between the two groups would vanish (Igor Chudov) https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/the-unvaccinated-had-more-car-crashes Deaths at Scene Excluded 42 deaths at scene 8 deaths were included (550 people were actually admitted to hospital) Therefore 84% of death outcomes ignored This also excluded all sudden deaths that resulted in an accident What about people not in the system Dr Clare Craig https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath/status/1602650802186772481 Unvaccinated typically underestimated Therefore Rate of incidence of anything overestimated in the unvaccinated Rate of incidence of anything underestimated in the vaccinated E.g. Covid cases, hospitalisations, deaths, car accidents Or indeed, anything else Forest plot In all subgroups the risk is increased by the same amount (possible systematic bias) Source data not available to public The study dataset is held securely in coded form at the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (ICES).

COVID Vaccine Hesitancy and Risk of a Traffic Crash https://www.amjmed.com/article/S0002-9343(22)00822-1/fulltext Background Coronavirus disease (COVID) vaccine hesitancy, is a reflection of psychology that might also contribute to traffic safety. So People that take covid vaccines are the sort of people who have less traffic accidents People who do not take covid vaccines are the sort of people who have more traffic accidents Methods Population-based longitudinal cohort analysis of adults Determined COVID vaccination status from electronic medical records Traffic crashes requiring emergency medical care Subsequently identified accidents from all (178) hospitals One month follow-up Results, (2021) N = 11,270,763 Total traffic accidents, 6,682 Unvaccinated, 16% Vaccinated, 84% Unvaccinated individuals 1,682 traffic crashes (25%) Equal to a 72% increased relative Confidence interval, (95%) 63% to 82% (P < 0.001) What about Socioeconomic status Alcohol Sleep apnea Diabetes Depression Dementia Hypertension Cancer Covid infection Equal to a 48% increase after adjustment Confidence interval, (95%) 40% to 57% (P < 0.001) The increased risks extended across the spectrum of crash severity Results similar for Pfizer, Moderna, or other vaccines Conclusions These data suggest that COVID vaccine hesitancy is associated with significant increased risks of a traffic crash. An awareness of these risks might help to encourage more COVID vaccination. But https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iryCrHaozU&t=174s Unvaccinated in Canada could not use, planes, trains, buses https://www.forbes.com/sites/sandramacgregor/2021/08/18/canada-to-make-proof-of-vaccination-mandatory-for-air-and-train-travel/?sh=6569fb1fd465 Also https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Science-Brief_Vaccines-in-Essential-Workers_20210423_published2.pdf Vaccinated more likely to work remotely in Ontario in 2021 ‘Essential workers’ had lower vaccination rates (several pile ups in ice and bad weather) Over 65s do not commute So Staying at home reduces the chances of being in an accident Invalid title Patient in emergency department as a driver, passenger, or pedestrian (codes V00-V69) Total = 6,682 Drivers, 2,856 Passengers, 1,189 Pedestrians, 2,637 (Table 3 of the study) (Therefore, unvaccinated pedestrians more likely to be in an accidents that vaccinated pedestrians) People were considered unvaccinated for the first 14 days after vaccination Given the study only lasted a month, this is half of the time. So how many casualties were misclassified? If 602 of the 6,682 were misclassified, Any difference between the two groups would vanish (Igor Chudov) https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/the-unvaccinated-had-more-car-crashes Deaths at Scene Excluded 42 deaths at scene 8 deaths were included (550 people were actually admitted to hospital) Therefore 84% of death outcomes ignored This also excluded all sudden deaths that resulted in an accident What about people not in the system Dr Clare Craig https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath/status/1602650802186772481 Unvaccinated typically underestimated Therefore Rate of incidence of anything overestimated in the unvaccinated Rate of incidence of anything underestimated in the vaccinated E.g. Covid cases, hospitalisations, deaths, car accidents Or indeed, anything else Forest plot In all subgroups the risk is increased by the same amount (possible systematic bias) Source data not available to public The study dataset is held securely in coded form at the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (ICES).

From Mr. Andrew Bridgen, UK MP

Professor Norman Fenton, Mathematician, Professor of Risk Information Management Professor Fenton, YouTube channel http://youtube.com/@normanfenton81 And Sub stack https://wherearethenumbers.substack.com/ normanfenton.com What is risk information management? Thinking about risk, what do we mean by absolute risk and relative risk Sounds a bit like the level of risk can be presented in a way that gives a particular impression of a greater or a lessor risk or benefit? Are there occasions when a vested interest might want to give an impression of an increased benefit, or reduced risk from an intervention? How could choosing RRR versus ARR influence the impression given for adverse reactions is medical journals? Conversely Are there occasions when a vested interest might want to give an impression of a decreased risk from an intervention? So will RRR always be higher than ARR? Why can the RRR vary between populations and vary over time? So using one of the two measures to estimate the risk/benefit ratio would lead to different conclusions? How could risk / benefit reporting be optimised in the medical literature? Do you think the editors of prestigious international journals are aware of the differences between RRR and ARR? In the case of this paper from the Journal of Expert Reviews of Vaccines Efficacy and effectiveness of covid-19 vaccine - absolute vs. relative risk reduction https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9115787/ The original phase three data gave an efficacy for Pfizer vaccine, at preventing infection with SARS-CoV-2 of 95%, but it turns out the ARR was 0.84% Why are these figures so different? So is it fair to say that the ‘real world translation’ of the ARR of the Pfizer vaccine over 5 to 6 months of use increased to 3.7%? What do we mean by number needed to treat?

China https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-63855508 Big changes, all of a sudden Live with the virus Vice-premier, Sun Chunlan China entering a new situation Virus ability to cause disease weakening Lifting most severe Covid policies End of quarantine camps People can isolate at home No more family separations Close contacts not taken to camps Strict ban on blocking fire exits No need to show tests for venues Less rules on internal travel Lateral flow tests to replace PCR tests in most areas Lockdowns continue in smaller more targeted areas Foreign travel soon Cases, 30,000 + Now Everyone will be exposed Will the medical system will be overwhelmed? National Health Commission All localities, focus on improving the vaccination rate of people aged 60-79, accelerating the vaccination rate of people aged 80 and above, and making special arrangements Prof Ivan Hung, Hong Kong University The main way for China to exit Covid with the least damage is via vaccination and three doses of vaccination is a must Hopefully before Chinese New Year (January 22) Rabbit Sinopharm Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization (SAGE) https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/the-sinopharm-covid-19-vaccine-what-you-need-to-know The vaccine is safe and effective for all individuals aged 18 and above. Individuals may choose to delay vaccination for 3 months following the infection. An inactivated vaccine with adjuvant (that is routinely used in many other vaccines) with a documented good safety profile, including in pregnant women. Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and efficacy against hospitalization 79% Does it prevent infection and transmission? No substantive data Does it work against new variants of SARS- CoV-2 virus? SAGE currently recommends using this vaccine Not yet been evaluated in the context of circulation of widespread variants of concern. How does this vaccine compare to other vaccines already in use? We cannot compare the vaccines head-to-head, (different approaches taken in designing the respective studies) but overall, all of the vaccines that have achieved WHO Emergency Use Listing, are highly effective in preventing severe disease and hospitalization due to COVID-19. Comparison with Western vaccines Pfizer original paper https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577 https://www.nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577/suppl_file/nejmoa2034577_appendix.pdf BNT162b2 was 95% effective in preventing Covid-19 Later analysis from Efficacy and effectiveness of covid-19 vaccine - absolute vs. relative risk reduction https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9115787/ AAR, Pfizer, during the trial period, 0.84% AAR https://patient.info/news-and-features/calculating-absolute-risk-and-relative-risk Absolute risk of a disease is your risk of developing the disease over a time period. Five to six-months update, AAR BNT162b2 3.7% mRNA1273 (Moderna-NIH) 4.9%

Group A strep and Scarlet Fever Most likely Respiratory viral infections Group A streptococcus Invasive Group A streptococcus Currently high rates in the UK https://www.gov.uk/government/news/ukhsa-update-on-scarlet-fever-and-invasive-group-a-strep Higher than normal for the time of year UK, Notifiable diseases https://www.gov.uk/guidance/notifiable-diseases-and-causative-organisms-how-to-report#list-of-notifiable-diseases Week 46, (W/E 19th November) 851 reported cases (Average is 186 cases) Close contact, droplets, hands, food Incubation, 2 to 5 days Most common, 2 years to 8 years 90% under 10 years Typically lasts for 7 – 10 days Rash disappearing in 7 to 10 days Should be immune for decades or life Invasive Group A strep (iGAS) Rare occasions, bacteria get into the bloodstream More cases of iGAS, particularly in children under 10 Scarlet fever Caused by the bacteria Group A streptococcus Usually a mild illness Highly infectious At increased risk Elderly Immunocompromised Clinical features Sore throat/tonsillitis Headache Fever (38°C / 100.4°F) or above Painful, swollen glands in the neck A red tongue (strawberry tongue) Rash of scarlet fever Starts 12 to 48 hours after symptoms Often begins with small spots on the body, then spread to the neck, arms and legs over the next 1-2 days. Fine, pinkish or red body rash It is often 'sand-paper' like to touch (but not itchy) Darker skin, rash more difficult to see Sandpapery feel Diagnosis of scarlet fever / Group A strep less likely Child who also has a runny nose with their tonsillitis Antibiotics Reduce the chance of infection becoming more severe Stop spread of infection Penicillin V Amoxicillin (Plenty in the UK) 10 days Finish the course Home until at least 24 hours after the starting Possible complications Occasionally, Group A streptococcus can spread to other areas of the body, Tonsillar abscesses Neck lymph node abscesses Chest infections (pneumonia) Bone and joint infections (septic arthritis) Sepsis Red warning signs Pale, mottled and feels abnormally cold to touch Difficulty breathing, grunting noises, indrawing Cyanosis, skin, tongue, lips Fit/seizure Extremely agitated Non blanching rash Child is floppy and will not wake up or stay awake Amber signs Rapid breathing Unable to swallow saliva Features suggestive of scarlet fever Seems dehydrated, dry nappy Drowsy or irritable Shivering or complains of muscle pain Painful, swollen gland in the neck Baby is under 3 months and has a temperature of 38°C / 100.4 °F Baby feels hotter than usual or feels sweaty Is 3-6 months temperature of 39°C / 102.2°F or above Continues to have a fever of 38°C or above, more than 5 days In the week or two after recovering from scarlet fever Post streptococcal glomerulonephritis Puffy face/eyelids Tea 'coca-cola' coloured urine Post-streptococcal arthritis Swollen, painful joint(s) Later Rheumatic heart disease Is this a new strain? High amounts of circulating bacteria Social indoor mixing Is this a post lockdown effect?

Autopsy-based histopathological characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00392-022-02129-5#Sec3 Likelihood assessment of vaccine-induced (epi-)myocarditis Causality or correlation? Presence of myocarditis with temporal association to vaccination event AND Integration of histological phenotype, clinical presentation, and laboratory findings indicate no alternative differential diagnosis Abstract infographic Cases of myocarditis Have been diagnosed clinically, by laboratory tests, imaging (in the context of mRNA-based anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccination) Autopsy-based description We describe, Cardiac autopsy findings and common characteristics of myocarditis, with vaccine-induced myocardial inflammation representing the likely or possible cause of death. Our findings establish the histological phenotype of lethal vaccination-associated myocarditis. Standardized autopsies Performed on 25 persons 25 bodies found unexpectedly dead at home, within 20 days following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination Histology Patchy, focal, interstitial myocardial T-lymphocytic and macrophage infiltration, predominantly of the CD4 positive sub- set, (T Helper cells) associated with mild myocyte damage. Autopsy findings indicated Death due to acute arrhythmogenic cardiac failure. Thus Myocarditis can be a potentially lethal complication following mRNA-based anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. Our findings may aid in adequately diagnosing unclear cases after vaccination, and in establishing a timely diagnosis in vivo, thus, providing the framework for adequate monitoring and early treatment of severe clinical cases.

The retrospective report Technical report on the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/technical-report-on-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-the-uk https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/technical-report-on-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-the-uk/list-of-chapters-authors-reviewers-and-contributors Baroness Hallett, independent public enquiry https://covid19.public-inquiry.uk Set up to look at the pandemic https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC9eFdKVwD1ARs3j9BSoGndw Online form launched 16th November https://share.covid19.public-inquiry.uk/s/your-experience Chapter 1, Section 6 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/technical-report-on-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-the-uk/chapter-1-understanding-the-pathogen What was the duration of, naturally acquired immunity, and vaccine acquired immunity, and the risk of reinfection over time? By early 2020 Data emerged indicating that the majority of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 displayed an antibody response between 10 to 14 days after symptom onset Throughout the first half of 2021 Following natural infection Antibody detectable in saliva for at least 8 months, and in blood for at least 9 months. The presence of antibody, associated with a protective effect against infection, at least 7 to 10 months Cell-mediated immune response to SARS-CoV-2 was shown to be detectable up to 8 months after infection Reflections and advice for a future CMO or GCSA (for Chapter 1) https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/technical-report-on-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-the-uk/chapter-1-understanding-the-pathogen#questions-on-the-disease Point 1 Scientific and medical advice will often need to be formulated on the basis of limited data. Point 2 Understanding the pathogen and the disease was a global effort, particularly at the outset, and sharing data and expertise from the beginning was key. Point 3 Gaining a clear understanding of the pathogen and the disease required an array of cross-disciplinary studies to be initiated quickly. Point 4 Building on and adapting existing research systems and networks was usually much faster than setting up new systems, but strong leadership, direction and coordination are required. Point 5 Viral variants, population behaviours and population immunity changed significantly over time requiring continuation of studies. Not mentioned State secrecy needs to be eliminated, early, open sharing of all science. No more cover ups Dangerous gain of function research should stop Procurements should be on the basis of clinical and scientific need, not commercial interests Powerful international corporations should not be allowed to influence the agenda All pharmaceuticals should be considered, rather than just expensive ones Powerful international corporations and individuals should not be allowed to control public communications Early scientific peer review must be allowed and encouraged, based on fully disclosed primary data Primary anonymised data from clinical trials must be made public for the worlds clever people to process Scientists and doctors with ‘outlying views’ should be judged on the quality of the evidence they present Play the ball Further comments Britain a 'prolonged period' of excess deaths but not from coronavirus itself Heart disease and cancer, stayed away or could not access treatment

Is the pandemic over? WHO, pandemic on March 11, 2020 https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/weekly-epidemiological-update-on-covid-19---30-november-2022 Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 – 30 November 2022 Globally, 21 to 27 November 2022 New weekly cases, stable (+2%) 2.7 million new cases reported = 637 million confirmed cases (full regional numbers and graphics presented) Global new cases Geographic spread and prevalence of VOCs 28 October to 28 November 2022 94,531 SARS-CoV-2 sequences (mostly from high income countries) 94,485 sequences were Omicron (99.9% of sequences reported globally) Heterogenous testing, analysis and reporting 7 to 13 November 2022 (Globally) BA.5 and descendent lineages, 73.0% BQ.1 (direct descendent of BA.5) increase from 23.1% to 27.3% (BQ.1 has over 30 descendent lineages) BA.2 and descendent lineages, 10.1% (up from 7.9% in previous week) BA.4 descendent lineages 2.8% (down from 3.4%) Unassigned sequences (presumed to be Omicron), 10.1% XBB 3.8% (recombination of BA.2.10.1 and BA.2.75) BA.2.75 6.6% BA.4.6 2.9%. BA.2.3.20 0.4% New weekly deaths down, 5% Deaths, +8,400 (on the week) = 6.6 million In context 56 million deaths per year https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death The number of newly reported weekly deaths, regions African Region (-79%) 49 African countries Deaths, + 9 deaths European Region (-35%) Americas (+21%) 56 countries Deaths, + 3,821 United States, + 2611 (+16%) Brazil + 535 (+113%) Canada + 268 (-10%). European Region 61 countries Deaths, down by 35% Deaths, + 2,254 Italy, + 419 (-22%) France, + 387 (-25%) Russian Federation, + 386 (-10%) Eastern Mediterranean Region (-20%) 22 countries Deaths, + 40 Saudi Arabia, + 11 (-21%) Iran, + 8 (-47%) Lebanon, +7 (0 change) Also Western Pacific Region (+9%) South-East Asia Region (+5%). The highest numbers of new weekly deaths United States of America (2611 new deaths; +16%) Japan (1000 new deaths; +42%) Brazil (535 new deaths; +113%) Italy (419 new deaths; -22%) China (395 new deaths; -17%). Overall trends, down

Massachusetts will give you a $75 gift card if you get vaccinated or boosted https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/massachusetts-will-give-you-a-2475-gift-card-if-you-get-vaccinated-or-boosted/ar-AA14H0pA $75 gift card for getting vaccinated against COVID-19, through Dec. 31st Adults and children alike, first dose, second dose, or booster shots. Boston Public Health Commission. https://support.google.com/youtube/answer/11161123 Vaccine safety: content alleging that vaccines cause chronic side effects, outside of rare side effects that are recognized by health authorities Efficacy of vaccines: content claiming that vaccines do not reduce transmission or contraction of disease Ingredients in vaccines: content misrepresenting the substances contained in vaccines Endemic common human coronaviruses About 20% of colds https://covid19.nj.gov/faqs/coronavirus-information/about-the-virus/how-are-the-coronaviruses-that-cause-the-common-cold-different-from-the-covid-19-virus https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/general-information.html Types 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1 usually cause mild to moderate upper-respiratory tract illnesses, like the common cold. runny nose sore throat headache fever cough general feeling of being unwell Human coronaviruses can sometimes cause lower-respiratory tract illnesses, such as pneumonia or bronchitis. This is more common in people with cardiopulmonary disease, weakened immune systems, infants, and older adults. Cross-reactive memory T cells associate with protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection in COVID-19 contacts https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27674-x https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20220111/common-cold-covid-protection Cross-reactive immune responses Common cold coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2 The frequency of baseline cross-reactive T cells, is correlated with the infection outcome following SARS-CoV-2 exposure, and we observe significantly higher frequencies of cross-reactive memory T cell responses in PCR-negative contacts. Here we assess 52 COVID-19 household contacts Studied peripheral blood mononuclear cells (Lymphocytes as opposed to neutrophils) T cells specific for spike, nucleocapsid, membrane, envelope and ORF1 SARS-CoV-2 epitopes, (Open Reading Frame, about a tenth of the viral genome) These T cells cross-react with human endemic coronaviruses. We observe higher frequencies of cross-reactivity Memory T cells cross reacted with nucleocapsid-specific antigens significantly Memory T cells did not seem to cross react with pre-existing spike-cross-reactive T cells Our results are thus consistent with pre-existing non-spike cross-reactive memory T cells protecting SARS-CoV-2-naïve contacts from infection, thereby supporting the inclusion of non-spike antigens in second-generation vaccines. China 66% per cent of over-80s are double vaccinated 68% per cent of over-60s have been boosted 1.3 to 2.1 million lives at risk https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/germany-urges-china-end-lockdowns-western-vaccines/?WT.mc_id=e_DM71323&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_GHS_New_Tue_B&utmsource=email&utm_medium=Edi_GHS_New_Tue_B20221129&utm_campaign=DM71323 https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/984612?src=wnl_edit_tpal&uac=127834AR&impID=4926650&faf=1 November up to 26th Cases 31,709 + 35,183 + 39,791 (only a few imported cases) Of the 39,791 cases 3,709 were symptomatic 36,082 were asymptomatic (National Health Commission) Deaths, + 1 = 5,233

More data still required on the nature of the excess deaths UK Zoe data The report and the data files https://console.cloud.google.com/storage/browser/covid-public-data 1.48% in England (1 in 65 people) 1.49% in Wales (1 in 65 people) 1.86% in Northern Ireland (1 in 55 people) 1.59% in Scotland (1 in 65 people) Less than 4 in 10 patients in hospital in England with COVID-19 in October 2022 were being treated primarily for COVID-19 Deaths and excess deaths Week ending 18 November 2022 471 deaths involving COVID-19 registered in the UK Deaths involving COVID-19 accounted for 3.6% of all deaths in the UK (a fall from 4.4% in the previous week) A total of 13,236 deaths were registered in the UK 7.7% above the five-year average (941 excess deaths) The rate of death involving COVID-19 was higher for those with obesity than those without obesity https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights Those who reported symptoms with their first infection were less likely to be reinfected 2.1 million people in the UK were experiencing self-reported long COVID as of 1 October 2022

The decline of COVID-19 severity and lethality over two years of pandemic https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.01.22277137v1 20 to 40-fold reductions during the period of dominance of Omicron compared to the initial acute phase. Phase 1, Ancestral Probability of hospitalization per infection of 5.4% Probability of ICU admission of 0.65% Probability of death of 2.2% Phase 5, Omicron Probability of hospitalization, 95.1% reduction in risk Probability of ICU admission, 97.3% reduction in risk Probability of death, 97.5% reduction in risk Using epidemiological and genomic surveillance data To estimate the number of daily infections in Italy in the first two years of pandemic. Attack rate Ascertainment of SARS-CoV-2 infections Phase 1 (ancestral) NPIs Attack rate 2.8% Phase 2 (ancestral) Less stringent NPIs Attack rate 11.4% Phase 3 Alpha variant Mid -February 2021 to early July 2021 Alpha infected about 10.1% of the Italian population Phase 4, Delta Second half of 2021 Progressive relaxation of NPIs Attack rate 17.3% Phase 5, Omicron End of December 2021 Attack rate, 51.1% of the Italian population became infected with Omicron Evolution of population susceptibility Percentage of the population susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 End of first phase, 97.5% February 20, 2022, 13% By February 20th, 2022 a marked proportion of individuals unprotected against SARS-CoV-2 infection can be found among vaccinated subjects, due to the waning of vaccine protection Evolution of COVID-19 severity and lethality Probability of hospitalisation Probability of ICU admission Probability of death Evolution of population susceptibility Natural, post infection immunity is now the main factor reducing population sensitivity Vaccination protection is seen to be declining Omicron natural infection had the largest protective effect Repeat exposure to omicron (and sub variants) is likely to have the same effect going forward. NPIs will reduce repeat exposures NPIs will reduce exposure to other respiratory viruses such as RSV

This covid winter should be better than last Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, President Biden’s chief medical adviser https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/22/us/politics/fauci-covid-winter-surge.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/11/22/covid-bivalent-booster/?utm_campaign=wp_to_your_health&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_tyh Combination of infections and vaccinations, enough community protection that we’re not going to see a repeat of what we saw last year at this time Re bivalent effectiveness It is clear now, despite an initial bit of confusion United States Nearly $5 billion to buy 171 million bivalent boosters (Pfizer BioNTech, Moderna) Hobson’s choice Dr. Ashish K. Jha, White House’s Covid-19 response coordinator Still heavily promoting vaccination Nothing I have seen in the subvariants makes me believe that we can’t manage our way through it effectively, especially if people step up and get their vaccine So far, 35 million people, (11% of over 5s) one bivalent shot https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7148e1.htm?s_cid=mm7148e1_w Effectiveness of Bivalent mRNA Vaccines in Preventing Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection — Increasing Community Access to Testing Program, United States, September–November 2022 This is the clinical trial, previous work had only been based on antibodies Benefits are mentioned, adverse reactions are not Any adverse reactions not reported v-safe https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7144a3.htm?s_cid=mm7144a3_w Systemic symptoms Fatigue (30.0%–53.1%) Headache (19.7%–42.8%) Myalgia (20.3%–41.3%) Fever (10.2%–26.3%) Reported inability to complete normal daily activities 10.6% among aged over 65 years 19.8% among aged 18–49 years Bivalent boosters provided significant additional protection against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection Relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of a bivalent booster dose, compared with that of more than 2 monovalent vaccine doses, 30% and 56% aged 18–49 with relative benefits increasing with time since receipt of the most recent monovalent vaccine dose. Staying up to date with COVID-19 vaccination, including getting a bivalent booster dose when eligible, is critical to maximizing protection against COVID-19 350,000 tests at almost 10,000 retail pharmacies between Sept. 14 and Nov. 11 Relative risk given Absolute risk not given What about protection from severe disease? Paul Offit, director of the vaccine education center, professor of pediatrics, Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia The only reasonable goal is to prevent serious illness, We are still waiting for one shred of evidence that this bivalent vaccine or any bivalent is better than what we had Virus continues to evolve This should be a cautionary tale for what happens when you try to chase these variants Celine Gounder, infectious-disease specialist, Kaiser Family Foundation It doesn’t show the bivalents are better than the original boosters (but still advocated the bivalent shot) Pei-Yong Shi, virologist, University of Texas Medical Branch difficult to measure how well the updated boosters were working because so many people now had some immunity from earlier infections, including people who were never vaccinated or boosted. John P. Moore, virologist, Weill Cornell Medicine Are the boosters working better than the original shots? Personally, I doubt there would have been much, if any, difference, but we may never know Dr. Roby Bhattacharyya, infectious disease physician, Massachusetts General Hospital This winter should be better than last we’re a more immune population China https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-daily-covid-cases-hit-record-high-2022-11-24/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=daily-briefing&utm_term=11-24-2022 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/11/24/iphone-factory-staff-offered-1400-leave-immediately-desperate/ Record high COVID-19 infections Rigid zero-COVID policy Cities nationwide imposing localised lockdowns Mass testing, masks No furlough scheme

58% of coronavirus deaths in August were people who were vaccinated or boosted Kaiser Family Foundation vice president Cynthia Cox https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/effectiveness-research/protocols.html https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/effectiveness/monitoring.html https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-COVID-19-Cases-or-Deaths-by-Age-Group-and/d6p8-wqjm https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/23/vaccinated-people-now-make-up-majority-covid-deaths/ 58% of coronavirus deaths in August were people who were vaccinated or boosted (people who had completed at least their primary series of vaccines) Therefore 42% coronavirus deaths in August were people who were unvaccinated First time there were more deaths covid deaths in the vaccinated versus the unvaccinated https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-people-booster-percent-pop5 In September 2021 Vaccinated people, 23% of coronavirus fatalities In January and February 2022 Vaccinated people, 42% of coronavirus fatalities We can no longer say this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated (who conducted the analysis on behalf of the Post) https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7144a3.htm?s_cid=mm7144a3_w Safety Monitoring of Bivalent COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine Booster Doses Among Persons Aged ≥12 Years — United States, August 31–October 23, 2022 On August 31, 2022 FDA authorized bivalent, Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna mRNA encoding the spike protein from original strain of SARS-CoV-2, and from Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended, all persons ≥12 years receive an age-appropriate bivalent mRNA booster dose v-safe a voluntary smartphone-based U.S. safety surveillance system, established by CDC to monitor adverse events after COVID-19 vaccination As of 3rd October, 10 million users https://icandecide.org/press-release/breaking-news-ican-obtains-cdc-v-safe-data/ Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) Total data, August 31–October 23, 2022 14.4 million received a bivalent Pfizer-BioNTech 8.2 million adults (≥18 years) a bivalent Moderna booster dose v-safe, among the 211,959 registrants (aged ≥12 years) August 31–October 23, 2022 Reported in the week after vaccination Injection site reactions, 60.8% Systemic reactions, 54.8% Fewer than 1% of v-safe registrants reported receiving medical care Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) 5,542 reports of adverse events after bivalent booster vaccination (≥12 years) 95.5% of reports were nonserious 4.5% were serious events Health care providers and patients can be reassured that adverse events reported after a bivalent booster dose are consistent with those reported after monovalent doses. Relative risk Absolute risk not given Health impacts after COVID-19 vaccination are less frequent and less severe than those associated with COVID-19 illness (2). Relative risk Absolute risk not given This is their Reference 2 Block JP, Boehmer TK, Forrest CB, et al. Cardiac complications after SARS-CoV-2 infection and mRNA COVID-19 vaccination—PCORnet, United States, January 2021–January 2022. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2022;71:517–23. https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7114e1 PMID:35389977 myocarditis; myocarditis or pericarditis; and myocarditis, pericarditis, or MIS, within 7-day or 21-day risk windows after the index date Comparisons between after vaccine and after infection Relative risk Absolute risk not given Review of v-safe Data During August 31–October 23, 2022 211,959 v-safe registrants had a bivalent booster 1,464 (0.7%) were aged 12–17 years 68,592 (32.4%) were aged 18–49 years 59,209 (27.9%) were aged 50–64 years 82.694 (39.0%) were aged ≥65 years Fourth dose 96,241; 45.4% Fifth dose 106,423; 50.2% In the week after receipt of the bivalent booster dose Local injection site reactions 49.7% among aged ≥65 72.9% among aged 18–49 Systemic reactions 43.5% among aged ≥65 67.9% among aged 18–49 Systemic symptoms Fatigue (30.0%–53.1%) Headache (19.7%–42.8%) Myalgia (20.3%–41.3%) Fever (10.2%–26.3%) Reported inability to complete normal daily activities 10.6% among aged ≥65 years 19.8% among aged 18–49 years Receipt of medical care Reported by 0.8% of registrants

I feel let down and apologise if I have misled anyone https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30418-9/fulltext We are public health scientists who have closely followed the emergence of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and are deeply concerned about its impact on global health and wellbeing. We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin. https://www.nature.com/articles/S41591-020-0820-9 Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus. Conclusion Obtaining related viral sequences from animal sources would be the most definitive way of revealing viral origins. (Fully formed or evolutionary intermediate) UK experts helped shut down Covid lab leak theory - weeks after being told it might be true Sir Patrick Vallance among scientists behind paper that stifled debate into the origins of the virus https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/11/23/uk-experts-helped-shut-covid-lab-leak-theory-weeks-told-might/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpZz9rCz3Co Top scientists including Sir Patrick Vallance, Were warned that virus could have evolved in lab animals Collaborated in above paper Debate therefore stifled To date Proximal origins paper Accessed more than 5.7 million times and cited in 2,627 subsequent papers. Emails from early 2020 FoI request, James Tobias, freelance journalist Authors held lengthy discussions with experts, Sir Patrick and Sir Jeremy Farrar, head of the Wellcome Trust Warned WIV had been carrying out research on bat-coronaviruses, at worrying levels of biosecurity. Research to alter Sars-like bat coronaviruses had been taking place for many years in Wuhan (not mentioned in paper) Sir Jeremy Farrar, (Wellcome) Wuhan was like the "Wild West". Prof Kristian Andersen, Scripps Research Institute La Jolla, California (lead author) had earlier told colleagues that features of the virus looked as if they’d been engineered in a lab. (No mention of this was made in the paper) Dr Jeremy Farrar, (Wellcome) It is important that we understand how all pathogens emerge so that we can prevent future pandemics as the efforts to gather evidence continue, it is important to stay open-minded Serial passaging Would cause the virus to contain o-glycans The second notable feature of SARS-CoV-2 is a polybasic cleavage site (RRAR) at the junction of S1 and S2 Prof Ron Fouchier, Dutch virologist (from another e mail chain) It is good that this possibility was discussed in detail with a team of experts. However, further debate about such accusations would unnecessarily distract top researchers from active duties, and do unnecessary harm to science in general and science in China in particular February 8th e mail Prof Edward Holmes (one of the authors) Ever since this outbreak started there have been suggestions that the virus escaped from the Wuhan lab, if only because of the coincidence of where the outbreak occurred and the location of the lab. I do a lot of work in China and I can tell you a lot of people there believe this and believe they are being lied to Prof Kristian Andersen, February 8th (Lead author) Passage of Sars-live coronaviruses have been going on for several years and more specifically in Wuhan under BSL-2 conditions BSL-2 laboratories are used to study moderate-risk infectious agents or toxins such as salmonella. Serious diseases should be handled in BSL-3 or 4 labs. Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) Importing bat coronaviruses from areas of China which hold the closest viruses to Covid-19 Had also applied for funding to manipulate viruses by inserting a furin cleavage site (FCS) The email chain Involved Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), an organisation which was funding research at the Wuhan lab. Senate report on viral origins the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 that resulted in the COVID-19 pandemic was most likely the result of a research-related incident https://www.help.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/report_an_analysis_of_the_origins_of_covid-19_102722.pdf https://asiatimes.com/2022/10/new-evidence-firmly-revives-wuhan-lab-origin-theory/ https://www.researchgate.net/publication/364599030_Endonuclease_fingerprint_indicates_a_synthetic_origin_of_SARS-CoV-2 Dec. 20, 2019 to Jan. 18, 2020 Searches for flu-like symptoms Differs from Previous Natural Zoonotic Spill overs Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) Lack of intermediate bats to humans Influenza H7N9 (2019) multiple independent introductions across multiple locations Geographically disparate, independent spill overs of H7N9 SARS epidemic (2003 – 2004) At least five independent spill overs of the SARS virus into humans Live animal markets followed by human to human Additional independent subsequent spill over infections in humans Civets identified within 6 months Evolutionary history, animals and humans Geo-temporal spread of COVID-19 in China, December 31, 2019 to February 11, 2020 Earliest identified SARS-CoV-2 well-adapted for human-to-human transmission Early SARS-CoV-2 variants had little genetic diversity

Cancer, early warning signs https://drjohncampbell.co.uk/ Any unexplained bleeding Haematuria, any blood in the urine is abnormal, frank or occult Females, check again in 2 weeks Haematemesis Blood in sputum Melaena / PR Again, frank or occult PV, between periods, after sex post menopause (no matter how much blood or what colour it is) Nasal Bruising Discharges Usually indicate infection Tumours distort and block normal anatomy Chest infections Chronic cough Urethra Nipple Vaginal Change in bowel or bladder habits Changes in defecation, frequency, consistency, constipation, diarrhoea, shape, colour, mucous Colour, dark or pale (head of pancreas) Floaty Dark urine Abdominal bloating or swelling Persistent heart burn / indigestion Persistent bloating, anorexia Changes in bladder emptying habits LUTS Thickening of tissue or a lump Tumours near body surface (Breast, testicular) Swollen lymph nodes Nagging cough or hoarseness Lung, laryngeal cancer, thyroid A sore / wound which does not heal Malignant ulceration Lesion getting bigger Increasing pain Unexpected bleeding Basal cell carcinoma (rodent ulcer) Non-melanoma skin cancers (NMSCs) New mole or changes to a mole Mouth or tongue ulcer (> 3 weeks) Obvious change in a wart or mole A, asymmetry B, borders C, colour D, > 6mm or increasing E, elevation Malignant melanoma may demonstrate all of the above features. Indigestion or difficulty in swallowing Feeling of pressure, throat or chest Dysphagia, oesophagus or fundus of the stomach. Also Night sweats or fever Fatigue Unexplained weight loss Unexplained pains or ache New blood clots, deep venous thrombosis Bone pain Intercurrent infection Cancer research UK https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/about-cancer/cancer-symptoms What is normal for you, is this a change? Lasting longer

Download free high-res PDFs of the posters, download free copies of my two text books. https://drjohncampbell.co.uk/ Australia, Key statistics https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/provisional-mortality-statistics/latest-release In 2022, there were 111,008 deaths that occurred by 31 July, and were registered by 30 September, which is 16,375 (17.3%) more than the historical average. In July there were 17,936 deaths, 2,503 (16.2%) above the historical average. There were 300 (22.5%) fewer deaths due to COVID-19 in August than July. https://www.bhf.org.uk/what-we-do/news-from-the-bhf/news-archive/2022/november/extreme-heart-care-disruption-linked-to-excess-deaths-involving-heart-disease Since the pandemic began Over 30,000 excess deaths involving heart disease (average over 230 additional deaths a week) Heart disease is among the most prominent diseases involved in the high numbers of excess deaths since the start of the pandemic. While Covid-19 infection was likely a significant factor Covid infections no longer a driving force https://www.cancer.gov/news-events/press-releases/2021/covid-19-pandemic-disparities-excess-deaths Meredith S. Shiels, Infections and Immunoepidemiology, NCI Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics Focusing on COVID-19 deaths alone without examining total excess deaths —that is, deaths due to non-COVID-19 causes as well as to COVID-19 —may underestimate the true impact of the pandemic https://www.cdc.gov/cancer/dcpc/research/update-on-cancer-deaths/index.htm https://www.cancerresearchuk.org https://news.cancerresearchuk.org/2020/07/21/why-its-difficult-to-estimate-the-number-of-extra-cancer-deaths-caused-by-service-disruption-during-covid-19/ July, 2022 3,600 to 60,000 excess cancer deaths so far https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/about-cancer/cancer-symptoms Excess mortality in England and English regions: December 2022 update https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/11/20/true-impact-covid-cancer-patients-revealed-excess-deaths-soar https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/office-for-health-improvement-and-disparities https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9 25 to 49 years Based on 2015 to 2019 data

G20 Bali Leaders’ Declaration Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Japan, India, Indonesia, Italy, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, and European Union. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022/11/16/g20-bali-leaders-declaration/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/11/16/g20-bali-leaders-declaration/ Section 22 We recognize that the extensive COVID-19 immunization is a global public good Section 23 We recognize the need for strengthening local and regional health product manufacturing capacities We support the WHO mRNA Vaccine Technology Transfer hub We acknowledge the importance of shared technical standards and verification methods, to facilitate seamless international travel, interoperability, and recognizing digital solutions and non-digital solutions, including proof of vaccinations. Establishment of trusted global digital health networks, that should capitalize and build on the success of the existing standards and digital COVID-19 certificates. Part 24 The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the transformation of the digital ecosystem and digital economy. We recognize the importance of digital transformation in reaching the SDGs. We also reaffirm the role of data for development, economic growth and social well-being. G20 update https://www.g20.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/2022-G20-Bali-Update.pdf “Endeavour to move towards interoperability of systems including mechanisms that validate proof of vaccination, whilst respecting the sovereignty of national health policies, and relevant national regulations such as personal data protection and data-sharing.” Indonesia’s Minister of Health Budi Gunadi Sadikin https://twitter.com/TimHinchliffe/status/1592232822483419138 G20 countries should adopt digital health certificate using WHO standards Let’s have a digital health certificate acknowledged by WHO — if you have been vaccinated or tested properly — then you can move around (next World Health Assembly in Geneva) WHO seem to be on it already https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/WHO-2019-nCoV-Digital_certificates-vaccination-2021.1 Digital documentation of COVID-19 certificates: vaccination status: technical specifications and implementation guidance, 27 August 2021 Use of scan codes Klaus Schwab, World Economic Forum (WEF) Chair Attended From a doctor in Austria It is currently a very emotional situation in my hospital (and in general in hospitals in Austria) because many of us in the health care sector are more or less forced to get a fourth vaccine dose. Even in my case as a physician who has received three doses and one infection just 6 months ago. The rule is that if the last vaccination is more than one year and/or the last infection is more than 6 months ago you either have to test all 72 hours or to get an additional vaccine dose; if not you are at risk of having to pay 500 to 3600 Euros and may even get fired. Vaccine passports https://lc.org/newsroom/details/111722-world-leaders-agree-to-implement-vaccine-passports-1

Association between vitamin D supplementation and COVID-19 infection and mortality https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-24053-4 (12th November 2022) Johns Hopkins University of Michigan National Bureau of Economic Research Department of Medicine, University of Chicago Department of Veterans Health Affairs Department of Medicine, University of Chicago, Chicago Vitamin D deficiency, associated with reduced immune function, can lead to viral infection Vitamin D deficiency, associated, increases the risk of COVID-19 But is it a treatment / prognosis improver? Population of US veterans, we show that Vitamin D2 and D3 fills Associated with reductions in COVID-19 infection After applying all restrictions 220,265 supplemented with vitamin D3 34,710 supplemented with vitamin D2 407,860 untreated patients. Study design Retrospective cohort Supplemented (before and during the pandemic), versus untreated controls One to one matches D2, D3, or calcifediol Veterans Administration Corporate Data Warehouse (CDW) electronic health records. Vitamin D levels typically respond to treatment following two months of exposure D3 cohort COVID-19 rates for the treated = 2.66% COVID-19 rates for the untreated = 3.30% D3 20%, reduction D2 28% reduction Mortality within 30-days of COVID-19 infection Infection ending in mortality within 30 days D3 group Treated group death rate after infection = 0.23% Untreated group death rate after infection = 0.35% Vitamin D3 33% mortality lower (HR, 67%) P < 0.001 Vitamin D2 25% lower (HR, 75%) (but not significant) Veterans receiving higher dosages of Vitamin D obtained greater benefits from supplementation than veterans receiving lower dosages. Vitamin D blood levels between 0 and 19 ng/ml, exhibited the largest decrease in COVID-19 infection and mortality following supplementation (0–19 ng/ml, 20–39 ng/ml, and 40 + ng/ml) Dosage options, 20 IU, 40 IU, 100 IU, 125 IU, 200 IU, 250 IU, 400 IU, 500 IU, 800 IU, 1000 IU, 2000 IU, 5000 IU, 8000 IU, and 50,000 IU Black veterans received greater associated COVID-19 risk reductions, with supplementation than White veterans As a safe, widely available, and affordable treatment, Vitamin D may help to reduce the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic. More background Vitamin D insufficiency and deficiency affect approximately half of the US population, with increased rates in people with darker skin, reduced sun exposure, people living in higher latitudes in the winter, nursing home residents, and healthcare workers Populations with low levels of Vitamin D have also experienced higher rates of COVID-19 New mechanism Vitamin D is needed to allow T helper cells to control and reduce Interferon gamma (IFN-γ) production Conclusions These associated reductions in risk are substantial and justify more significant exploration and confirmation using RCTs. This is particularly important given the high rates of vitamin D deficiency in the US population and COVID-19. Extrapolate, D3 supplementation to the entire US population in 2020 4 million fewer COVID-19 cases (19,860,000 actual cases) 116,000 deaths avoided (351,999 actual deaths) Given our findings, the absence of severe side effects, the widespread availability of vitamin D3 at low cost, vitamin D3 presents a unique opportunity to reduce the spread and severity of the COVID-19 pandemic. K2, MK-7 Supplement, probably 100 micrograms per day Nato, 1,000 micrograms per 100 g Cheese, typically 50 micrograms per 100 g Safe and effective UK, GP incentives to vaccinate Home, £30 Standard reimbursement to Primary Care Networks (which then gets passed to GPs) £15 New contract, £12.58 each

Thank you Bev, great interview

Excess deaths AND long-term sickness dramatically increased in the UK New Hope Children's Centre This is a great organisation I have been involved with for 12 years now. I fully attest to the veracity and dedication of all the staff I have met. The founder is Anne Chege, who my brother and I know well. Anne worked with Barclays Bank for 28 years, looking after orphans and abandoned children within her own home. On retirement she opened this centre and has dedicated her life to the work. To contribute to this work, https://www.buymeacoffee.com/newhopechi3 Zoe data https://console.cloud.google.com/storage/browser/covid-public-data Prevalence One in 29 One in 40 (2.43%) Since the end of June 2022, mostly Omicron variant BA.5 Antibodies, 95.8% of adults in England ONS (11th November) https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/deaths Long COVID not main factor in long-term sickness increase 10 November 2022 Since the pandemic in the UK, Number of people out of work because of long-term sickness has risen by around 363,000 The number of people on long-term sick other health problems or disabilities, between April and June 2022, was 97,000 higher than the same period in 2019. A 41% increase UK covid deaths, week ending 28 October 2022 717 deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19) registered in the UK Previous week, 737 Excess deaths in the UK, ending 28 October 2022 Deaths registered in the UK, 12,861 12.5% above the five-year average (1,430 excess deaths). Deaths involving COVID-19 accounted for 5.6% of all UK deaths UK official data https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Great debate, no perceptable media coverage

Official UK government report on the debate https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2022-10-24/debates/FF880636-BC3B-4BDB-A5E0-D6D4B82B2888/Covid-19VaccinesSafety Official UK Government YouTube channel, the debate in full for those interested https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfgGCgxGYkk Oracle films, safe and effective https://www.oraclefilms.com/safeandeffective A few of John’s notes on immunity (You will need to cut and past this address into search engine) Acquired or adaptive immunity only develops after there has been contact with a particular antigen. An individual is said to be immune to a particular pathogen when it may be introduced into the body, without causing illness. In contrast to innate immunity, the immune system is changed as a result of exposure to a particular antigen. Acquired immunity is specific to a particular antigen. For example, previous exposure to the measles virus will have allowed the immune system to adapt, generating immunity to any future measles infection. However, because the response is specific, the individual may still suffer from mumps, influenza, or indeed any other antigenic organism it has not previously been exposed to. Antigens (antibody generators) An antigen is anything the immune system recognises as being foreign. When detected, antigens generate an immune response in the body. It is antigens which stimulate the production of antibodies, which are the immune proteins. Usually an antigen is a foreign protein that the body recognises as non-self. The outer coatings of bacteria and viruses contain such foreign proteins. Non-protein large molecules (with a molecular mass of over 1000) will also be antigenic if introduced into the body. So a wide variety of living and non living things can act as antigens; such things are said to possess antigenicity. The specific component of an antigen the immune system recognises as foreign is termed an epitope. Cells involved in adaptive immunity The important classification of white cells involved in adaptive immunity is the small lymphocytes. Small lymphocytes have a large nucleus with only a small area of cytoplasm. In addition to being found in the blood, there are many small lymphocytes in the structures of the lymphatic system, such as the spleen, tonsils and lymph nodes. Small lymphocytes are able to recognise antigenic material, this is essential if they are to mount an immune response. It is estimated that small lymphocytes are capable of producing 100 million different shapes of surface receptors in order to recognise 100 million different forms of antigen. This diversity seems to allow the immune system to recognise all of the possible antigens on the surface of the planet.

The Incidence of Myocarditis and Pericarditis in Post COVID-19 Unvaccinated Patients-A Large Population-Based Study https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35456309/ https://www.mdpi.com/journal/jcm Myocarditis and pericarditis, post-acute cardiac sequelae of COVID-19 infection, arising from adaptive immune responses. ? incidence Retrospective cohort study Study group, had infection N = 196,992 adults after COVID-19 infection (Clalit Health Services) March 2020 to January 2021 Inpatient myocarditis and pericarditis diagnoses, from day 10 after positive PCR Israeli vaccination program initiated on 20 December 2020 Follow-up was censored on 28 February 2021 Control cohort, never infected N = 590,976 adults, with at least one negative PCR and no positive PCR (age- and sex-matched) Calculated backward from 15 December 2020 Results Post-COVID-19 group Nine post-COVID-19 patients developed myocarditis (0.0046%) Eleven diagnosed with pericarditis (0.0056%) Control group, never covid infected 27 developed myocarditis (0.0046%) P = 1 52 developed pericarditis (0.0088%) P = 0.17 Adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] Myocarditis, male (aHR 4.42) (regardless of previous COVID-19 infection) Pericarditis, male (aHR 1.93) Peripheral vascular disease, (aHR 4.20) Follow up Median, 4.1 months Covid cohort, 700,040 person-months Non covid cohort, 2,100,077 person-months Conclusions Post COVID-19 infection was not associated with myocarditis (aHR 1.08) Post COVID-19 infection was not associated with pericarditis (aHR 0.53) We did not observe an increased incidence of neither pericarditis nor myocarditis in adult patients recovering from COVID-19 infection. Our data suggest that there is no increase in the incidence of myocarditis and pericarditis in COVID-19 recovered patients, compared to uninfected matched controls.