Call to John Su (CDC) asking him for the "correct" URF for VAERS

Published October 6, 2021

I wanted to make a public record that I've asked John Su for the "correct" URF for VAERS. This is the number you multiply serious adverse events like death by in order to get the "actual" number of deaths. Normally, you compute this from the anaphylaxis data (which is what I did). But the FDA tells me "they disagree" with my analysis, so I wanted to be sure we at least agree on the URF value. Funny, the CDC absolutely needs to know this number, but oddly, they forgot to calculate it this year since otherwise, they'd have to multiply all the events by this number. If the CDC says the number is anything but something around 41, then I'll be able to attack their methodology and force a correction. This is why they have avoided saying anything. I don't want to spread misinformation about an incorrect URF, but I've left messages before for John and the FDA and they NEVER tell me the correct URF. So this time I decided to document the request. If he calls back, I'll update this. But I'm not holding my breath.

No call back. He's ignoring me. Look, it's not like he gets hundreds of these calls a day. I'm the only guy asking the question.

He doesn't answer my question because he can't. And that's all you need to know, isn't it?

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