Putting Syria’s Conflict in Context: Reality on the Ground Driving Difficult Decisions

Update on US proxy war in Syria…

- Syrian forces continue withdrawing following a large offensive carried out by US-sponsored terrorists from Idlib, northern Syria;

- Syrian forces previously withdrew from these regions during the 2011-2015 phase of the US proxy war against Syria;

- Russian intervention allowed Syrian forces to incrementally take back territory with a specific task force, city-by-city, in operations that spanned years;

- It is still too early to draw conclusions about the disposition of forces on either side, including how overextended Russian and Iranian forces may be or the full depth of combat power of US-backed terrorists;

- Syrian forces are likely falling back because they are incapable of holding all of this territory at once, particularly in areas like Hama and Homs serving as traditional strongholds of US-backed extremism and will need to incrementally retake it as it did from 2015 onward;

References:

CNN - Syrian rebel leader says goal is to ‘overthrow’ Assad regime (Dec. 6, 2024):
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/06/middleeast/syria-rebel-forces-hayat-tahrir-al-sham-al-jolani-intl-latam/index.html
US State Dept. - Foreign Terrorist Organizations:
https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/
Judicial Watch - DIA document 2012:
https://www.judicialwatch.org/documents/pgs-287-293-291-jw-v-dod-and-state-14-812-2/
Guardian - Thousands flee as Syrian rebels push on towards Homs (Dec. 6, 2024):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/06/middle-east-crisis-thousands-people-flee-homs-central-syria-rebel-forces-israel-gaza-latest-updates
Atlantic Council - Could Syria’s rebels take Damascus? (Dec. 5, 2024):
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/could-syrias-rebels-take-damascus/
Wikimedia - Syria Conflict 2013 Map:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e9/Syrian_Civil_War_map_%28March_15_2013%29.svg/2478px-Syrian_Civil_War_map_%28March_15_2013%29.svg.png
Geocurrents - Syrian Ethnicity Map:
https://www.geocurrents.info/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Syria-Large-Ethnicity-Map.png
New Yorker - The Redirection (2007):
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2007/03/05/the-redirection
Guardian - US begins training Syrian rebels in Jordan to become anti-Isis force (May 2015):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/07/us-begins-training-syrian-rebels-jordan-anti-isis-force
Middle East Eye - US troop numbers in Jordan surge to record high amid Gaza war (Jun. 2024):
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/us-troop-numbers-jordan-surge-record-high-amid-gaza-war

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