SpaceX's Starship & the Geopolitical Implications of Reusable Rockets
US-based SpaceX’ Starship program and its implications on geopolitics…
- SpaceX continues developing its Starship program after its 2nd integrated flight test (IFT2) on September 18, 2023;
- Starship, when operational, will be the first fully reusable launch system able to recover and reuse both the 1st stage booster like SpaceX’ current Falcon family of rockets, but also the 2nd stage;
- Starship is also the largest, most powerful launch system on Earth at the moment;
- Reusability drives costs down and enables nations with access to such systems to establish orbital infrastructure quicker, cheaper, and on larger scales;
- SpaceX’ Falcon 9 rockets have already allowed SpaceX to create the Starlink constellation of satellites providing lower-latency satellite communication with greater coverage than any other current or even planned networks;
- In the event of conflict in space where nations begin targeting navigational, surveillance, and communication satellites, the nation with the ability to launch new satellites into space quicker and cheaper will have a clear advantage;
- Resources in the Earth’s solar system vastly dwarf resources found on Earth and can support a multiplanetary civilization on a scale of size and abundance hitherto unimaginable, reusability is the key to tapping this potential;
References:
NSF - After upgrades, Starship achieves numerous successes during second test flight (November 17, 2023):
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2023/11/ift-2-launch/
Our World in Data - Cost of space launches to low Earth orbit:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cost-space-launches-low-earth-orbit
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West Admits Ukraine is Losing, Little Can Be Done to Change this Fact
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for November 13, 2023…
- Ukraine is losing its conflict with Russia according to a growing list of metrics reported on by the Western media;
- This includes the net loss of territory despite a 5 month offensive;
- Ukraine and its Western backers are losing in terms of military industrial production;
- Ukraine is also losing in qualitative terms, admittedly being outfought in the air, through electronic warfare, and counter-battery operations;
- The collective West has no plan even being discussed that can reverse any of these factors;
References:
Newsweek - Ukraine Map Shows Avdiivka Almost Fully Encircled by Russia's 40K Troops (November 10, 2023):
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-map-avdiivka-russia-troops-counteroffensive-1842601
France24 - The Dnipro River, a key front line between Russian and Ukrainian troops (November 10, 2023):
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231110-the-dnipro-river-a-rampart-winding-through-ukraine-war
RAND Corporation - Extending Russia, Competing from Advantageous Ground (2019):
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html
The Telegraph - Ukraine’s army is running out of men to recruit, and time to win (August 2023):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/08/22/ukraines-army-is-running-out-of-men-to-recruit/
Mediazona - Russian casualties in Ukraine. Mediazona count, updated (November 3, 2023):
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng
Business Insider - Ukraine official says it can't properly use its Western kit because it has so few soldiers left, report says (October 31, 2023):
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-cant-use-western-weapons-due-to-soldier-shortage-report-2023-10
The Washington Post - Ukraine short of skilled troops and munitions as losses, pessimism grow (March 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/13/ukraine-casualties-pessimism-ammunition-shortage/
New York TImes - Who’s Gaining Ground in Ukraine? This Year, No One (September 2023):
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/09/28/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-map-front-line.html
Reuters - Ukrainian refugees: how will the economy recover with a diminished population? (July 2023):
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/however-war-ends-ukraines-diminished-population-will-hit-economy-years-2023-07-07/
NBC News - U.S., European officials broach topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine, sources say (Nov 4, 2023):
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/us-european-officials-broach-topic-peace-negotiations-ukraine-sources-rcna123628
Mark Sleboda on Substack - Kiev Regime General Zaluzhny Tells the Economist What He Needs to Win - "Wunderwaffe" Future Miracle Weapons and his own equivalent Russian Army, the Future of War, more… (November 4, 2023):
https://marksleboda.substack.com/p/kiev-regime-general-zaluzhny-tells#details
Simplicius The Thinker on Substack - Zaluzhny Pens Oped for The Economist: "How to Win the War" - Analysis (November 4, 2023):
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/zaluzhny-pens-oped-for-the-economist?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
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US Proxy Wars: Israel Gears Up for Gaza Incursion as Initiative Passes to Russia in Ukraine
Update on the conflict in Ukraine + Middle East for October 17, 2023
- Russia continues overturning what negligible gains Ukraine made during its over 4 month-long offensive in Zaporozhye;
- Russian operations in Avdeevka continue, however no major “offensive” has been announced by Russian military or political leaders;
- Attempts by Russia to exploit possible opportunities along the line of contact are measured, with limitations identified by Russian commanders in stark contrast to Ukraine’s stand-and-fight approach;
- In the Middle East, fighting continues between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon as Israeli military operations continue to target Gaza;
- Israel has taken action to compel Palestinians to evacuate from northern parts of Gaza in what is likely an attempt to seize the territory and prevent a future return by Palestinians to the area;
- Israel’s continued violation of international law and belligerence toward its neighbors is an unsustainable policy that undermines its own self-preservation, like most US proxies;
- Russia and China are in a better position now than ever to advance the two-state solution and are creating a region in which this solution can actually materialize;
References:
Politico - Putin hammers Ukraine with West distracted by Middle East crisis (October 16, 2023):
https://www.politico.eu/article/leaders-distracted-war-hamas-israel-crisis-russia-putin-attacks-ukraine-kherson/
VOA - Russian Military Operations Slacken Near Strategic Town of Avdiivka (OOctober 16, 2023):
https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-returns-several-ukrainian-children-in-qatar-brokered-deal-/7312473.html
TASS - Russian forces continuing to implement master plan during special op — Shoigu (October 16, 2023):
https://tass.com/politics/1691503
CNN - Russia’s jamming of US-provided rocket systems complicates Ukraine’s war effort (May 2023):
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/05/politics/russia-jamming-himars-rockets-ukraine/index.html
Defense News - Lockheed wins $4.8B guided rockets contract (April 2023):
https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/aaaa/2023/04/27/lockheed-wins-48b-guided-rockets-contract/
Times of Israel - Hezbollah shoots at IDF posts, fires missile at tank in fresh Lebanon border clashes (October 16, 2023):
https://www.timesofisrael.com/hezbollah-shoots-at-idf-posts-fires-missile-at-tank-in-fresh-lebanon-border-clashes/
The Telegraph - Israeli tanks with Ukraine-style ‘anti-drone cages’ line up on Gaza border (October 16, 2023):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/10/16/israel-tanks-installed-cope-cages-drone-bomb-defence/
Haaretz - Hezbollah Anti-tank Fire Causing Most IDF Casualties in Lebanon (August 2006):
https://www.haaretz.com/2006-08-06/ty-article/hezbollah-anti-tank-fire-causing-most-idf-casualties-in-lebanon/0000017f-dbc4-d856-a37f-ffc41fc50000
NYT - A Disciplined Hezbollah Surprises Israel With Its Training, Tactics and Weapons (August 2006):
https://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/07/world/middleeast/07hezbollah.html
RAND Corporation - Extending Russia (2019):
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html
CSIS - The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan (2023):
https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan
Brookings Institution - Which Path to Persia? (2009):
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/06_iran_strategy.pdf
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US Running Low on Weapons as Proxy Wars Target Russia, Iran, & China
Update on the conflict in Ukraine + Israeli-Palestinian conflict for October 14, 2023
- Ukraine’s offensive has culminated, in many areas is being overturned by Russian counter-offensives;
- Western military assistance continues to dwindle for Ukraine and is now being divided between both Ukraine and Israel;
- Israel’s military and political leadership have openly announced a deliberate intention to cut off civilians from food and fuel while bombarding them with military aviation and other long-range weapons;
- Israel is contemplating a ground operation into Gaza;
- The Middle East has been pivoting slowly away from US primacy, toward a Russian-Chinese led multipolar order;
- Hamas raids and Israel’s disproportionate response pose a danger to this process - forcing the region to be drawn into an armed conflict at risk of escalating;
- Hamas’ background and actions over the last 2 decades have served US foreign policy objectives, including supporting regime change attempts in Syria and to perpetuate, not end Israeli occupation and military aggression;
- Russia/China seek a two-state solution, in accordance with the UN, and seeks to reshape the region in a way that will make the two-state solution possible;
Reference:
Ukraine
Defense News - Germany to send Ukraine $1B in air defense tech, plus more tanks (October 11, 2023):
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2023/10/11/germany-to-send-ukraine-1b-in-air-defense-tech-plus-more-tanks/
US DoD - Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine (October 11, 2023):
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3553644/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
TIME - Biden and Congress Craft $2 Billion Aid Package as Israel Vows to ‘Crush’ Hamas (October 11, 2023):
https://time.com/6322820/israel-aid-biden-congress-hamas/
Bloomberg - US Gives First Iron Dome Interceptors to Israel (October 13, 2023):
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-12/pentagon-owned-stocks-in-israel-transfered-to-defense-forces
Israeli Ops
EI - Gaza’s beauty and struggle from above:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2mMjs8nMMs
BBC - Hamas attack: 12 Thais killed and 11 kidnapped in Israel (October 11, 2023):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-67052021
Guardian - ‘Emphasis is on damage, not accuracy’: ground offensive into Gaza seems imminent (October 10, 2023):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/10/right-now-it-is-one-day-at-a-time-life-on-israels-frontline-with-gaza
BBC - Israel's military says it fully controls communities on Gaza border (October 10, 2023):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67050127
Business Insider - For people in Gaza, life is about to get even worse, with Israel's siege about to 'starve the population,' NGO says (October 11, 2023):
https://www.businessinsider.com/gaza-strip-life-get-worse-israel-cut-food-fuel-power-2023-10
Russia and China
Politico - Putin blames US for Israel-Hamas conflict (October 10, 2023):
https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-russia-blames-us-over-isreal-hamas-conflict/
GT - US' biased stance risks undermining efforts to defuse Israel-Gaza tension (October 11, 2023):
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202310/1299692.shtml
Hamas: Background, Current Role
NYT - U.S. Groups Helped Nurture Arab Uprisings (April 2011):
https://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/15/world/15aid.html
WSJ - How Israel Helped to Spawn Hamas (January 2009):
https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB123275572295011847
Haaretz - Why Did Netanyahu Want to Strengthen Hamas? (October 11, 2023):
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-11/ty-article/.premium/netanyahu-needed-a-strong-hamas/0000018b-1e9f-d47b-a7fb-bfdfd8f30000
The New Yorker - The Redirection (by Seymour Hersh, 2007):
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2007/03/05/the-redirection
Reuters - Hamas ditches Assad, backs Syrian revolt (February 2012):
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-palestinians-idUSTRE81N1CC20120224
WaPo - U.S., Qatar agree to stop Iran from tapping $6 billion fund after Hamas attack (October 12, 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/10/12/iran-oil-fund-us-israel/
Govinfo - HAMAS' BENEFACTORS: A NETWORK OF TERROR (2014):
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-113hhrg89738/html/CHRG-113hhrg89738.htm
AJ - Israel to create a unity government and war cabinet to oversee the fight against Hamas (October 13, 2023):
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/13/israel-unity-government
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Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Continues: Israel Flattens Gaza Following Hamas Raids
LIVE update on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for October 11, 2023
- Gaza is being flattened by Israeli airstrikes following several days of Hamas raids into Israeli-held territory;
- war crimes are being committed on both sides;
- attempts by the Western politicians to implicate Iran while the US moves military assets into the region for a possible escalation beyond Israel and Palestine;
- it is important to separate emotions from facts because short-term “revenge” almost always complicates long-term strategic victory;
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References:
SITREP
Reuters - Israel prepares ground offensive; Biden pledges support after Hamas attacks (October 10, 2023):
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-prepares-ground-offensive-biden-pledges-support-after-hamas-attacks-2023-10-10/
Israeli Violations of International Law
UNOHCHR - Five years after UNSC Resolution 2334, international accountability to end the Israeli occupation is more important than ever (2021):
https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2021/12/five-years-after-unsc-resolution-2334-international-accountability-end#:~:text=Resolution%202334%2C%20adopted%20by%20the,â%C2%80%C2%9Cimmediately%20and%20completely%20cease.%22
Hamas Backing US Proxy War Against Syria
Reuters - Hamas ditches Assad, backs Syrian revolt (February 2012):
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-palestinians-idUSTRE81N1CC20120224
BBC - Gaza fighters head to Syria as refugees flow in (December 2013):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-25362202
FT - Egypt cut ties to Assad regime and calls for support of rebels (2013):
https://www.ft.com/content/8088e7f6-d685-11e2-9214-00144feab7de
AJ - Egypt’s Sisi expresses support for Syria’s military (2016):
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/11/23/egypts-sisi-expresses-support-for-syrias-military
Arab Spring: Feigned Surprise by Western Intelligence Community
LA Times - U.S. intelligence official acknowledges missed Arab Spring signs (July 2012):
https://www.latimes.com/archives/blogs/world-now/story/2012-07-19/u-s-intelligence-official-acknowledges-missed-arab-spring-signs
NYT - U.S. Groups Helped Nurture Arab Uprisings (April 2011):
https://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/15/world/15aid.html
Inaugural AYM SUmmit and Egypt’s Shabab April 6 Movement (2011 - Archived):
https://web.archive.org/web/20110410231924/http://www.movements.org/blog/entry/first-aym-summit/
AYM Summit 2008 (Archived):
https://web.archive.org/web/20111107205508/http://allyoumov.3cdn.net/f734ac45131b2bbcdb_w6m6idptn.pdf
US State Department - Secretary Clinton Addresses Youth Movement Summit (video 2009):
https://youtu.be/OcBG7B6sgOk?si=bMkAGgtBCeT3IIUn
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Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Erupts Amid US Proxy War in Ukraine
Update on Israeli-Palestinian Conflict for October 9, 2023
- As US proxy war in Ukraine continues to tip in Russia's favor, armed conflict has broken out between Palestinian-based Hamas militants and Israeli forces;
- Israeli-Palestinian tensions stem from the Israeli government's decades-long occupation of Palestinian territory in violation of international law and laid out specifically in UN resolutions;
- Both Hamas and Israeli forces are currently targeting both military targets and civilians;
-Israel has for decades served the purpose of a foothold for first British then American hegemony in the Middle East;
- Hamas has a problematic background that complicates Palestine's ability to resolve hostilities between it and Israel;
- Hamas has previously served as a proxy along with Israel in the US proxy war against Syria;
- Israel is requesting additional military aid from a depleted United States, limiting its ability to escalate vs. Hamas and within the wider region;
References:
CNN - Israel formally declares war against Hamas as it battles to push militants off its soil (October 8, 2023):
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/08/middleeast/israel-gaza-attack-hostages-response-intl-hnk/index.html
Reuters - U.S. redirecting Israel-stored munitions to Ukraine - New York Times (January 2023):
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-sent-israel-stored-munitions-ukraine-new-york-times-2023-01-18/
Defense News - Israel orders tens of thousands of 155mm artillery shells from Elbit (August 2023):
https://www.defensenews.com/industry/2023/08/04/israel-orders-tens-of-thousands-of-155mm-artillery-shells-from-elbit/
Elbit Systems - Artillery Ammunition Portfolio:
https://elbitsystems.com/product/artillery-ammunition-portfolio/
NYT - U.S. Speeds Up Bomb Delivery for the Israelis (2006):
https://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/22/world/middleeast/22military.html
Background
UN Human Rights, Office of the High Commissioner - Five years after UNSC Resolution 2334, international accountability to end the Israeli occupation is more important than ever (December 2021):
https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2021/12/five-years-after-unsc-resolution-2334-international-accountability-end#:~:text=Resolution%202334%2C%20adopted%20by%20the,“immediately%20and%20completely%20cease.%22
Reuters - Hamas ditches Assad, backs Syrian revolt (2012):
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-palestinians-idUSTRE81N1CC20120224
BBC - Gaza fighters head to Syria as refugees flow in (2013):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-25362202
Reuters - Hamas to restore Syria ties after 10 years of dispute, sources say (2022):
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-restore-syria-ties-after-10-years-dispute-sources-say-2022-06-21/
FT - Egypt cut ties to Assad regime and calls for support of rebels (2013):
https://www.ft.com/content/8088e7f6-d685-11e2-9214-00144feab7de
Al Jazeera - Egypt’s Sisi expresses support for Syria’s military (2016):
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/11/23/egypts-sisi-expresses-support-for-syrias-military
Reuters - Russia calls on Israel and Palestinians to cease fire (October 7, 2023):
https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-calls-israel-palestinians-cease-fire-2023-10-07/
Bloomberg - China Reiterates Two-State Solution Needed for Israel, Palestine (October 8, 2023):
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-08/china-reiterates-two-state-solution-needed-for-israel-palestine
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The New Atlas LIVE: Scott of Kalibrated on Ukraine's Faltered Offensive, Funding & Arms Shortages
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NATO Testing Waters on Buffer Zone as Ukraine Offensive Grinds to Halt
Update for the conflict in Ukraine for October 2, 2023
- Ukraine’s offensive is now at the 4 month mark, exhausting its potential and failing to achieve any of its objectives;
- The Western media admits that Russia has actually gained more territory this year including during the Ukrainian offensive despite being on the defensive;
- Russia continues degrading a variety of Ukrainian military capabilities the West cannot sufficiently replace while maintaining pressure along the line of contact;
- Both the Russian economy and its military industrial base are admittedly growing while Ukraine and its Western sponsors exhaust their stockpiles, lacking the ability to renew them;
- The West continues talking about building military industrial projects within Ukrainian territory, with the UK recently claiming they may send British troops to “train” Ukrainians in Ukraine;
- This appears to be the foundation for creating a “buffer zone” within western Ukraine, similar to the US-Turkish occupation in Syria, meant to freeze the conflict;
References:
Failing Offensive
New York TImes - Who’s Gaining Ground in Ukraine? This Year, No One (September 28, 2023):
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/09/28/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-map-front-line.html
RT - Russian general in charge of Ukraine operation speaks out (October 2022):
https://www.rt.com/russia/564934-general-surovikin-ukraine-operation/
The Times - Ukraine counteroffensive: ‘I’m ready to die . . . 90% of the guys here will die too’ (September 5, 2023):
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-counteroffensive-i-m-ready-to-die-90-of-the-guys-here-will-die-too-76jvs3kwj
Mediazona - Russian casualties in Ukraine (September 22, 2023):
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng
NYT - Russia Overcomes Sanctions to Expand Missile Production, Officials Say (September 13, 2023):
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/13/us/politics/russia-sanctions-missile-production.html
Novaya Gazeta - The barren barrels (November 2022):
https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022/11/02/the-barren-barrels-en
NYT - Defenses Carved Into the Earth (December 2022):
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/14/world/europe/russian-trench-fortifications-in-ukraine.html
War on the Rocks - A Chat with Britain’s Top Officer, Adm. Radakin (September 18, 2023):
https://warontherocks.com/2023/09/a-chat-with-britains-top-officer-adm-radakin/
Alexander Mercouris - NYT Ukr No Gains, Budanov: Continuing on Foot; German MSM: Rus Army Stronger; France Out of Niger (September 29, 2023):
https://youtu.be/q6hbriZynaQ?si=4XzGRPdp4IJzl-nD
Foreign Policy - Ukraine’s Longest Day (April 2023):
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/18/ukraine-russia-war-counteroffensive-attack-bakhmut-himars/
Buffer Zone
NYT - Western Leaders Urge Arms Manufacturing in Ukraine (September 28, 2023):
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/28/world/europe/ukraine-arms-manufacturing-nato.html
The Guardian - British troops could deploy to Ukraine for first time to train soldiers, says Grant Shapps (September 30, 2023):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/30/british-troops-could-deploy-to-ukraine-to-train-soldiers-says-grant-shapps
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Ukrainian Intel Head Admits Failures, Canada Exposes West as on Wrong Side of History
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for September 25, 2023
- ATACMS will not arrive in numbers large enough for strategic impact;
- Ukrainian intelligence chief admits to Ukraine's multiplying failures and obstacles including a lack of infantry and artillery to support them on the battlefield;
- US-made M1 Abrams main battle tanks must be held back from the front line or they will be destroyed alongside German Leopard 2 and British Challenger 2 tanks according to Ukrainian intel chief;
- Canada's parliament accidentally invited and honored a World War 2 veteran who fought for German Axis forces;
- The incident highlights Ukraine's past and present problems stemming from its relationship with Germany during World War 2;
References:
ATACMS
Washington Post - U.S. will send Ukraine long-range missiles, after delay (September 22, 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/09/22/atacms-ukraine-cluster-munitions/
The Drive - Decision To Give ATACMS To Ukraine Is About To Become Easier (September 19, 2023):
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/one-argument-against-giving-atacms-to-ukraine-is-about-to-erode
Lockheed Martin - Lockheed Martin To Deliver PrSM To The US Army For Early Fielding (September 2022):
https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2022-09-27-lockheed-martin-to-deliver-prsm-to-the-us-army-for-early-fielding#:~:text=Releases,-Newsroom&text=DALLAS%2C%20Sept.,Precision%20Strike%20Missiles%20(PrSM)
CNN - Russia’s jamming of US-provided rocket systems complicates Ukraine’s war effort (May 2023):
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/05/politics/russia-jamming-himars-rockets-ukraine/index.html
Ukrainian Military Intelligence
The Drive, The Warzone - Exclusive Interview With Ukraine’s Spy Boss From His DC Hotel Room (September 22, 2023):
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/exclusive-interview-with-ukraines-spy-boss-from-his-dc-hotel-room
Mediazona - Russian casualties in Ukraine (September 22, 2023):
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng
NYT - Russia Overcomes Sanctions to Expand Missile Production, Officials Say (September 13, 2023):
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/13/us/politics/russia-sanctions-missile-production.html
Canadian Government, Jewish Ukrainian President Gives WW2 N*az* Standing Ovation
CBC News - CBC News Special: President Zelensky Address to Parliament (September 23, 2023):
https://www.youtube.com/live/7m_QRRxG1Mk?si=3ZSaC2mBCvivW38q&t=4200
Washington Post - Canadian House speaker apologizes after honoring veteran of Nazi unit (September 24, 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/24/canadian-speaker-apologizes-ukrainian-nazi/
Wikipedia - World War II:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II
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West Admits Russia Outguns Them as Ukraine Suffers Heavy Losses Amid Failing Offensive
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for September 18, 2023
- Ukrainian offensive operations remain stagnant along the line of contact with Russian counterattacks overturning what superficial progress they do make;
- The Western media citing US and other NATO member state officials admits Ukrainian forces lacked the proper training to conduct a successful offensive;
- As Western sources begin admitting to Ukraine's catastrophic losses in men and materiel, they also admit Russian losses are near all time lows;
- The collective West also acknowledges that the amount of ammunition and weapons Ukraine requires is beyond the West’s ability to provide both in the short and intermediate future;
- In order to provide such levels of material support, the West would need to significantly mobilize its population, industry, and military, a prospect that isn’t even being seriously considered let alone planned;
References:
BBC - War in Ukraine: Is the counter-offensive making progress? (September 18, 2023):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66796358
Mediazona - Russian casualties in Ukraine (Updated September 8, 2023):
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng
Guardian - West must focus on preparing Ukraine’s troops – or we will all pay the price (July 23, 2023):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/23/west-must-focus-on-preparing-ukraines-troops-or-we-will-all-pay-the-price
Wall Street Journal - The Secret of Ukraine’s Military Success: Years of NATO Training (April 2022):
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-military-success-years-of-nato-training-11649861339
FT - The hard lessons from Ukraine’s summer offensive (September 15, 2023):
https://www.ft.com/content/e83bd6fe-43b8-4adf-9bea-07609bc223d0
NYT - Russia Overcomes Sanctions to Expand Missile Production, Officials Say (September 13, 2023):
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/13/us/politics/russia-sanctions-missile-production.html
n.html
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China's Technological Edge, Ukraine's Insurmountable Odds, Tensions in Korea, & NATO Posturing
In my recent discussion with Garland Nixon and Dr. Wilmer Leon we discuss:
- Huawei's Mate 60 Pro which includes chips possibly made indigenously in China represents China's growing technological edge despite extreme measures by the US & its allies to arrest its development;
- Ukraine's failing offensive is just the visual manifestation of much greater fundamental odds it and its Western sponsors cannot overcome, particularly in terms of military industrial output;
- Tension on the Korean Peninsula is the result of the United States attempting to create yet another proxy conflict like in Ukraine against Russia, but this time across Asia against China;
- NATO exercises meant to intimidate Russia are more posturing than any actual serious message. Posturing without the military industrial capacity to sustain the type of warfare required to defeat Russia is meaningless;
▪️Follow Garland on Twitter here: https://twitter.com/GarlandNixon
▪️Follow Garland on YouTube here: https://www.youtube.com/@garlandn/featured
▪️Dr. Leon on Twitter: https://twitter.com/DrWLeon
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Air Bases, Drone Swarms & New Ports: US Military Footprint in Asia Grows, But China Grows Faster
US Expands Military Footprint in Asia, But China is Expanding Faster
- US seeks to adopt new doctrine to improve survivability of its air bases in the Pacific amid war with China;
- The doctrinal shift will take years and likely won’t be complete until after China irreversibly surpasses the US economically and militarily;
- The US is also building “civilian” infrastructure close to the Chinese island province of Taiwan, further escalating tensions between the US and China but also involving the Philippines deeper as a US proxy;
- The Philippines had been a US colony until 1946 and Washington has sought to reassert itself over Filipino sovereignty ever since, compelling Manila to make decisions that suit Washington at Manila’s expense;
- China is the Philippines’ largest trade partner, thus Manila siding with Washington against China will cost the Philippines opportunities the US cannot offer in terms of economics and development;
- A US attempt to develop drone swarms to mitigate China’s advantage in manpower and materiel ignores the fact that China’s growing advantage would also allow it to easily produce larger drone swarms of its own;
References:
New Eastern Outlook - Washington’s Expanding Military Footprint on China’s Doorsteps:
https://journal-neo.su/2023/09/05/washingtons-expanding-military-footprint-on-chinas-doorsteps/
Sputnik International - US Seeks to Divide Indo-Pacific, Use New Alliances as 'Proxies Against China':
https://sputnikglobe.com/20230911/us-seeks-to-divide-indo-pacific-use-new-alliances-as-proxies-against-china-1113272705.html
Defense One - Air Force expanding number of bases in Pacific over next decade:
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/08/air-force-expanding-number-bases-pacific-over-next-decade/389834/
US Air Force - Air Force Doctrine Note 1-21, Agile Combat Employment (ACE) (August 2022):
https://www.doctrine.af.mil/Portals/61/documents/AFDN_1-21/AFDN%201-21%20ACE.pdf
Reuters - Exclusive: U.S military in talks to develop port in Philippines facing Taiwan (August 31, 2023):
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-military-talks-develop-port-philippines-facing-taiwan-2023-08-30/
US State Department, Office of the Historian - The Philippine-American War, 1899–1902:
https://history.state.gov/milestones/1899-1913/war
CSIS, China Power - How Much Trade Transits the South China Sea?:
https://chinapower.csis.org/much-trade-transits-south-china-sea/
VOA - US, Vietnam Highlight Elevated Relationship (September 10, 2023):
https://www.voanews.com/a/biden-opens-vietnam-visit-by-saying-two-countries-are-critical-partners-at-critical-time-/7261879.html
Global Times - Vietnam's first city metro, built by China, carries 14,917 passengers per day (January 2022):
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202201/1245916.shtml
SCB - Vietnam launches freight train routes to Europe:
https://www.scb.co.th/en/personal-banking/stories/business-maker/vietnam-europe-freight-train-route.html?hash_primary=A22D05E0961E6E5553C8BFF5141C3C9FC53534AA
Defense One - ‘Hellscape’: DOD launches massive drone swarm program to counter China:
https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2023/08/hellscape-dod-launches-massive-drone-swarm-program-counter-china/389797/
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US Considers ATACMS as Ukraine's Offensive Struggles + Problems to Come
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for September 11, 2023
- Fighting continues around the village of Robotyne despite Western claims that Ukraine has pushed on south and southeast of it;
- Russian forces continue pressing along the line of contact across the Donbass region;
- The US is considering sending ATACMS to Ukraine. The long-range weapon system does not represent a capability Russia does not already have in greater quantities nor a threat Russia is not prepared to defend against;
- Western analysts are beginning to understand the missteps made during Ukraine’s offensive, however, they still insist expanding Western military industrial output quick enough to aid Ukraine in the current conflict is possible (it is not);
References:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - Michael Kofman:
https://carnegieendowment.org/experts/2362
War on the Rocks - Perseverance and Adaptation: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive at Three Months (September 4, 2023):
https://warontherocks.com/2023/09/perseverance-and-adaptation-ukraines-counteroffensive-at-three-months/
War on the Rocks - US Supplying Ukraine ATACMS Major Escalation; Oil Price Grows, West Gives Up on Rus Oil Price Cap (podcast - September 8, 2023):
https://warontherocks.com/2023/09/ukrainian-progress-a-breach-or-a-breakthrough-of-russian-lines/
ATACMS
ABC News - US likely to send long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine for the first time: Officials (September 9, 2023):
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-send-long-range-atacms-missiles-ukraine-time/story?id=103031722
Business Insider - Russia adapted to the game-changing HIMARS, but Ukraine's new Storm Shadow missiles could put the fear back into its commanders, warfare experts say (May 2023):
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-adapted-himars-ukraine-storm-shadow-missiles-bring-fear-back-2023-5
CNN - Russia’s jamming of US-provided rocket systems complicates Ukraine’s war effort (May 2023):
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/05/politics/russia-jamming-himars-rockets-ukraine/index.html
CSIS - Russia Isn’t Going to Run Out of Missiles (June 2023):
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russia-isnt-going-run-out-missiles
CSIS - US and Allied/Partner Government (funding):
https://www.csis.org/about/financial-information/donors/us-and-alliedpartner-government
CSIS - Corporations (funding):
https://www.csis.org/about/financial-information/donors/corporations
US Department of Defense - Fact Sheet on US Security Assistance to Ukraine (September 7, 2023):
https://media.defense.gov/2023/Sep/07/2003296114/-1/-1/0/UKRAINE-FACT-SHEET.PDF
CSIS - Missile Threat, ATACMS:
https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/atacms/
Alexander Mercouris - US Supplying Ukraine ATACMS Major Escalation; Oil Price Grows, West Gives Up on Rus Oil Price Cap (September 10, 2023):
https://youtu.be/9Gzm2s3HXlg?si=fpwQ6X_rNiveGN5d
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The New Atlas LIVE: Scott of Kalibrated & Ukraine's Attempts to Break Russian Lines
Scott of Kalibrated joins us to talk about Ukraine, Niger, US-Chinese tensions and more...
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Ukraine's Western Sponsors Running Out of Ammo & Out of Time
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for August 31, 2023:
- The Western media is trying to spin Ukrainian gains within the security or “gray zone” ahead of Russia’s first of several defense lines as a “turning point” in the offensive;
- Ukraine’s offensive potential has been exhausted with the West struggling to find arms and ammunition to replace Ukrainian losses;
- The West is even struggling to pull together large numbers of antiquated and inappropriate equipment like the post-WW2 Leopard 1 tank;
- Meanwhile Ukraine continues conducting drone strikes in Russia, achieving questionable PR value and little else;
- A recent Ukrainian drone strike on an airport hosting Il-76 strategic airlift aircraft damaged 2. To put that in context, Russia operates over 100 of these aircraft and has production capacity to build up to 12 annually;
- Ukraine’s sponsors are unable to sustain the conflict “for as long as it takes,” and only for as long as they have arms and ammunition to supply Ukraine in sufficient quantities;
References:
Forbes - Two Ukrainian Air Assault Brigades Are Flanking Russia’s Next Strongpoint On The Road To Melitopol (August 29, 2023):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/08/29/two-ukrainian-air-assault-brigades-are-flanking-russias-next-strongpoint-on-the-road-to-melitopol/?sh=71ada6bc1d1c
Forbes - As Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Gains Momentum, Russia Is Deploying Some Of Its Last Good Reserves (August 27, 2023):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/08/27/as-ukraines-counteroffensive-gains-momentum-russia-is-deploying-some-of-its-last-good-reserves/?sh=e96a1f372bf8
Reuters - Ukrainian drones attack Russian air base near Estonia (August 30, 2023):
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-drones-attack-russian-air-base-near-estonia-2023-08-30/
Ukrainska Pravda - Drone attack on Pskov: first satellite images of airfield (August 31, 2023):
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/31/7417802/
US Agency for Global Media - Radio Svoboda:
https://www.usagm.gov/tag/radio-svoboda/
Air Data News - 50 years after first flight, Il-76 is still being produced in Russia (2021):
https://www.airdatanews.com/50-years-after-first-flight-il-76-is-still-being-produced-in-russia/
US State Department - New Package of Additional U.S. Military Assistance for Ukraine (August 29, 2023):
https://www.state.gov/new-package-of-additional-u-s-military-assistance-for-ukraine/
US Defense Department - Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine (August 29, 2023):
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3509116/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
The Drive - Ukraine’s Mi-24 Hinds Now Armed With U.S. 70mm Hydra Rockets (August 1, 2023):
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraines-mi-24-hinds-now-armed-with-u-s-70mm-hydra-rockets
Forbes - To Free Up Another Hundred Leopard 1 Tanks For Ukraine, German Diplomats Are Getting Creative (August 29, 2023):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/08/29/to-free-up-another-hundred-leopard-1-tanks-for-ukraine-german-diplomats-are-getting-creative/?sh=7d5f3f9852e0
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West & Ukraine Trade Blame, Talk Wonder Weapons, as Critical Juncture Approaches
Update on Ukraine conflict for August 27, 2023
- Ukraine’s offensive nears 3 months of fighting and has yet to breach Russia’s first of several defensive lines;
- Russia not only continues frustrating Ukraine’s offensive, it is launching its own offensive in the northeast that is gaining momentum;
- Amid the failing offensive, Ukraine and its Western sponsors trade blame and argue over the best course forward;
- Talk continues to be made regarding “wonder weapons” like F-16 and JAS 39 Gripen fighter jets despite the implausible nature of using either effectively in battle;
- A juncture is approaching where the West will have to decide whether to allow Ukraine to begin irreversibly collapsing or intervene more directly;
References:
Wall Street Journal - Ukraine Chalks Up Small Advance in Southern Push (August 22, 2023):
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/ukraine-chalks-up-small-advance-in-southern-push-8735d44c
Wall Street - U.S., Ukraine Clash Over Counteroffensive Strategy (August 25, 2023):
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/u-s-ukraine-clash-over-counteroffensive-strategy-cb5e4324
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty - Russia Reinforcing Troops Ahead Of Renewed Offensive In 'Tense' East, Ukrainian General Says (August 25, 2023):
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-air-drone-strikes-eastern-front/32564271.html
Guardian - Ukrainian pilot ‘Juice’ among three killed in jet collision, says Volodymyr Zelenskiy (August 27, 2023):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/27/ukrainian-pilot-juice-among-three-killed-in-jet-collision-says-volodymyr-zelenskiy
Forbes - Ukraine Is Getting F-16s. Now It Needs Cruise Missiles. (August 21, 2023):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/08/21/ukraine-is-getting-f-16s-now-it-needs-cruise-missiles/?sh=37b7acda1515
Forbes - 3,600 American Cruise Missiles Versus The Chinese Fleet: How One U.S. Munition Could Decide Taiwan’s Fate (January 9, 2023):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/01/09/3600-american-cruise-missiles-versus-the-chinese-fleet-how-one-us-munition-could-decide-taiwans-fate/?sh=3028b3ee7da7
Lockheed Martin - JASSM
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/jassm.html
Reuters - Ukraine's Zelenskiy asks Sweden for Gripen jets in first visit since Russian invasion (August 19, 2023):
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-zelenskiy-visits-sweden-meet-pm-royal-family-2023-08-19/
SAAB - Thailand receives first batch of Gripen fighters (2011):
https://www.saab.com/newsroom/press-releases/2011/thailand-receives-first-batch-of-gripen-fighters
The National Interest - Talk of NATO Membership for Ukraine is a Dangerous Distraction (July 2023):
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/talk-nato-membership-ukraine-dangerous-distraction-206628
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US Hegemony at Heart of Ukraine Conflict + Japan Dumps Radioactive Water from Fukushima
- Russian President Vladimir Putin declares opposition to US-led unipolarism in a speech at the recent BRICS summit in South Africa;
- President Putin notes the role the US pursuit of hegemony plays in global wars including the ongoing proxy war in Ukraine;
- Austria's foreign minister notes that European security architecture cannot exclude Russia and its national security concerns;
- Japan begins pumping radioactive water from the Fukushima disaster into the ocean despite protests both at home and abroad;
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Western Media Faces Ukraine’s Failures: Offensive Grinds on with No Plan-B
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for August 21, 2023:
- As Ukraine’s offensive struggles in its 3rd month to cross the Russian security zone and reach the first of several defensive lines, Russian forces around Kupiansk have begun reversing Ukraine’s territorial gains made in last year’s Ukrainian offensive;
- The Western media citing Western political and military leaders as well as previously optimistic Western analysts now admit how implausible Ukraine’s offensive plans actually were as blame begins to be traded;
- Despite a growing grip on reality, there is still talk about “wonder weapons” changing the tide of the fighting including continued talk about the delivery of US-made F-16 warplanes which face all the difficulties that NATO main battle tanks faced, preventing Ukraine from using them effectively on the battlefield;
- Russia will most likely continue its methodical advance across the battlefield after Ukraine’s offensive fully exhausts itself rather than launching its own “big-arrow” offensive;
References:
Ukrayinska Pravda (via Yahoo! News) - Ukraine's offensive success in south is successful, Russia's in Kharkiv Oblast is not – UK intelligence (August 19, 2023):
https://news.yahoo.com/ukraines-offensive-success-south-successful-065722883.html
FT - US grows doubtful Ukraine counteroffensive can quickly succeed (August 20, 2023):
https://www.ft.com/content/4d40482a-f8c4-42b8-af60-2374f93070ca
Washington Post - U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive’s key goal (August 17, 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/
NY Times - Fighting Intensifies in Northeast as Russia Presses on Kupiansk (August 17, 2023):
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/08/17/world/russia-ukraine-news
Washington Post - Wounded Ukrainian soldiers reveal steep toll of Kherson offensive (November 2022):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/07/ukraine-kherson-offensive-casualties-ammunition/
NYT - Defenses Carved Into the Earth (December 2022):
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/14/world/europe/russian-trench-fortifications-in-ukraine.html
Washington Post - Ukraine running out of options to retake significant territory (August 20, 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/20/ukraine-counteroffensive-analysis-war-russia/
DW - Ukraine updates: F-16 training has begun, Kyiv says (August 20, 2023):
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-august-20/live-66580082
CNBC - Can expensive, American-made weapons like F-16s turn the tide in Ukraine’s war against Russia? (August 19, 2023):
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/19/can-expensive-american-made-weapons-like-f-16s-turn-the-tide-in-ukraines-war-against-russia.html
Newsweek - Russia Blames Ukraine for Drone Attack on Military Airfield (August 19, 2023):
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-drone-airfield-attack-novgorod-chernihiv-1821062
Politico - Russian missile strike kills 7 in Ukraine, including child (August 19, 2023):
https://www.politico.eu/article/chenihiv-russia-shelling-in-ukraine-kills-six-including-child/
Ukrainska Pravda - Russian propagandists confirm they targeted drone manufacturers in Chernihiv (August 19, 2023):
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/19/7416255/
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The Decline of America's Military Reflects the Overall Decline of America Itself
US polling discovers growing distrust among the American public of the US military, a previously highly trusted institution.
The US military continues to decline as it is used, abused, and exploited in pursuit of US hegemony around the globe.
As the pursuit of hegemony drains America back home, fewer back home are qualified to serve in the military abroad, thus a vicious, inescapable cycle is created.
Reference:
Global Times - As US standards fall, military less trusted:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202308/1295758.shtml
Politico - Americans’ confidence in the U.S. military lowest in 2 decades, poll finds:
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/31/americans-confidence-in-the-u-s-military-lowest-in-2-decades-poll-finds-00108969
Wall Street Journal - The Military Recruiting Crisis: Even Veterans Don’t Want Their Families to Join:
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/military-recruiting-crisis-veterans-dont-want-their-children-to-join-510e1a25
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US Continues Down Path Toward War with China Over Taiwan
- The US is creating military assistance packages for Taiwan similar to those it creates for Ukraine ahead of a Ukraine-style proxy conflict Washington seeks to create with Beijing;
- The US is also passing legislation serving as a stepping stone toward pushing its Taiwan proxies toward declaring "independence" and triggering a conflict with the rest of China;
- Meanwhile, Russian and Chinese warships approach "US shores," however upon closer examination, these incidents are happening near the Aleutian Islands closer to Russian than to the continental US;
References:
NEO - US Arms Package to Taiwan Heralds “Ukraine Part 2”:
https://journal-neo.org/2023/08/01/us-arms-package-to-taiwan-heralds-ukraine-part-2/
Reuters - US announces Taiwan weapons package worth up to $345 million:
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-announces-taiwan-weapons-package-worth-up-345-million-2023-07-28/
CNN - Russian fighter jet forces down US drone over Black Sea:
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/14/politics/us-drone-russian-jet-black-sea/index.html
Air & Space Forces Magazine - Russian Fighter Damages a Second MQ-9 Over Syria. So What Should the US Do Now?:
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/russian-fighter-damages-mq-9-syria/
AJ - Saudi Arabia may run out of interceptor missiles in ‘months’:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/9/saudi-arabia-may-run-out-of-interceptor-missiles-in-months-ft
US Congress - H.R.1176 - Taiwan International Solidarity Act:
https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/1176 &
US State Department - U.S. Relations with Taiwan:
https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/
UN Digital Library - UN Resolution 2758: Restoration of the lawful rights of the People's Republic of China in the United Nations (1972):
https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/192054?ln=en
Wilson Center Digital Archive - Shanghai Communique (1972):
https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/joint-communique-between-united-states-and-china
National Democratic Institute - Taiwan:
https://www.ndi.org/asia/taiwan
Taiwan Foundation for Democracy - About:
https://www.tfd.org.tw/en/about/director
World Democracy Movement - Eighth Assembly Report (funding listed on page 47):
https://www.movedemocracy.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Assembly_Report_Eighth.pdf
Forbes - U.S. Mum After Confronting 11 Chinese And Russian Ships Off Alaska:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2023/08/09/us-gives-no-details-after-confronting-11-chineserussian-ships-off-alaska/?sh=2a421c3f74bf
Guardian - US warships sail through Taiwan Strait for first time since Pelosi visit:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/28/us-warships-sail-through-taiwan-strait-for-first-time-since-pelosi-visit-report
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The New Atlas LIVE: Scott of Kalibrated on Ukraine's Faltering Offensive
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A Polish-Ukrainian Union? + Black Sea Terror & the Impact of Cluster Munitions in Ukraine
- Could moves by Poland and Ukraine be a precursor to the establishment of a buffer zone in western Ukraine similar to the one established by the US and Turkey in Syria to freeze the conflict there?
- Is Ukraine's ongoing sea and air drone campaign a significant threat to Russia's fighting capacity, or just a means to maintain the illusion of holding the initiative?
- And are US-supplied cluster munitions finally making a difference on the battlefield or is the Western media simply working its way through the latest "wonder weapon" narrative?
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Ukraine's Offensive Remains Stalled: Western Media Begins Admitting Failures
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for August 9, 2023:
- Western analysts and media sources are beginning to admit the poor progress, heavy losses, and fundamental flaws of the Ukrainian offensive and beyond that, the unsustainable nature of the proxy war in the first place;
- Ukraine is shifting away from attempts to storm Russian lines and attempting instead to conduct attritional warfare, however, it lacks the material resources to do so which necessitated “storming” tactics in the first place;
- As Ukraine’s offensive falters on the battlefield, Kiev and its Western sponsors have been focusing on aerial and naval drone strikes to create the illusion Ukraine maintains the initiative;
- Quantities of artillery, armor, and trained manpower determine the duration of Ukraine’s offensive. The disposition of both Ukrainian and Russian forces including the reserves of both sides will determine if a breakthrough will occur;
- Russian military industrial capacity and the material resources it produces for the ongoing military operation ensures that no matter where Ukraine’s offensive ends on the battlefield, it will leave Ukrainian forces exhausted, depleted, and unable to sustain their fighting capacity;
- Industrial capability between the collective West and both Russia and China is and will remain into the foreseeable future leaning in favor of Russia and China;
- The West gambled and lost on “small wars” as it enters an end game for geopolitical unipolarity against Russia and China and the reality that modern warfare against peer and near-peer competitors requires industrial capacity the West doesn’t have and cannot obtain;
References:
NYT - ‘It’s Not a Sprint,’ Ukraine’s Marines Insist. ‘It’s a Marathon.’ (August 7, 2023):
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/07/world/europe/ukraine-marines-counteroffensive.html
US Army Maneuver Center of Excellence - Defeating the Russian Battalion Tactical Group (2017):
https://www.moore.army.mil/armor/earmor/content/issues/2017/spring/2Fiore17.pdf
Vox - What went wrong in Ukraine’s counteroffensive (August 8, 2023):
https://www.vox.com/23819064/ukraine-war-counteroffensive-russia-mines-tanks
New York Times - U.S. intelligence suggests that Putin’s advisers misinformed him on Ukraine. (March 2022):
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/30/world/europe/putin-advisers-ukraine.html
CNN - Western allies receive increasingly ‘sobering’ updates on Ukraine’s counteroffensive: ‘This is the most difficult time of the war’ (August 8, 2023):
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/08/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-briefings/index.html
Syrian War Headlines
The New Yorker - The Redirection (by Seymour Hersh, 2007):
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2007/03/05/the-redirection
Guardian - U.S. launches secret drone campaign to hunt Islamic State leaders in Syria (2015):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/07/russia-airstrikes-syria-not-targetting-isis
Washington Post - Russia’s military is unlikely to turn the tide in Syria’s war (2015):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/russias-military-is-unlikely-to-turn-the-tide-in-syrias-war/2015/10/03/1b9fff04-686a-11e5-bdb6-6861f4521205_story.html
NYT - Obama Sees Russia Failing in Syria Effort (2015):
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/03/world/middleeast/syria-russia-airstrikes.html
VOX - Why Putin is doomed to fail in Syria (2015):
https://www.vox.com/2015/10/1/9431773/putin-russia-syria-doomed
Arming & Training the “Syrian Rebels”
NYT - Arms Airlift to Syria Rebels Expands, With Aid From C.I.A. (2013):
https://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/25/world/middleeast/arms-airlift-to-syrian-rebels-expands-with-cia-aid.html
Brookings Institution - An Army to Defeat Assad: How to Turn Syria’s Opposition Into a Real Fighting Force (2014):
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/an-army-to-defeat-assad-how-to-turn-syrias-opposition-into-a-real-fighting-force/
DW - The demise of the Free Syrian Army (2018):
https://www.dw.com/en/free-syrian-army-turns-to-turkey-for-support-in-war-against-assad/a-42462658
Industrial Output as the Determining Factor
RUSI - The Return of Industrial Warfare (June 2022):
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare
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