The West is Learning the Wrong Lessons about Airpower in Ukraine
- Western experts continuously make inappropriate comparisons between Russia’s air campaign in Ukraine to the US air campaign in Iraq in the 1990s and against in 2003;
- Such experts ignore the primary difference where Iraq lacked modern integrated air defenses while Ukraine began in 2022 with significant defenses;
- These same experts ignore the significant losses US military aviation suffered in contested airspace such as over Vietnam where the US lost over 10,000 aircraft or the necessity of US military aviation to use stand-off strikes in Syria because of the presence of modern air defense capabilities;
- While Western experts laud the performance of the US-made Patriot missile system, the fact that interceptors cannot be made in large enough quantities detracts from its overall efficacy;
- Russia’s use of military aviation in Ukraine reflects the realities both on and above the battlefield, realities that would effect Western air forces were they in Russia’s place;
References
NEO - The West is Learning the Wrong Lessons about Airpower in Ukraine (July 23, 2024):
https://journal-neo.su/2024/07/23/the-west-is-learning-the-wrong-lessons-about-airpower-in-ukraine/
Business Insider - Russia's showing NATO its hand in the air war over Ukraine (July 13, 2024):
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-war-teaching-nato-air-forces-lessons-fighting-russia-2024-7
The Mitchell Institute - US Fixed Wing Aircraft Losses of the Vietnam War 1962-1973 (June 2018):
https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/us-fixed-wing-aircraft-losses-of-the-vietnam-war-1962-1973/
CNN - ‘Their tactics have changed’: Russia’s bid to blow apart Ukraine’s power grid (April 2024):
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/14/europe/russia-tactics-ukraine-energy-power-strikes-intl/index.html
Al Jazeera - Saudi Arabia may run out of interceptor missiles in ‘months’ (January 2022):
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/9/saudi-arabia-may-run-out-of-interceptor-missiles-in-months-ft
CNN - Exclusive: Russia producing three times more artillery shells than US and Europe for Ukraine (March 2024):
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html
Where to Find My Work:
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West Admits Ukraine is Losing, Encourages Ukrainians to Fight on Anyway
- Western media admits Ukraine is losing ground and suffering from growing manpower, arms, and ammunition shortages;
- After US-European pledges to increase artillery shell production, both have fallen far short of their targets and will be producing less ammunition in 2026 than Russia is producing now;
- Western policymakers promoting claims that robots, automation, and simplifying manufacturing can allow the West to match Russian and Chinese production are unrealistic;
References:
SITREP
BBC - Europe must brace for decade of Ukraine war - Nato chief (July 19, 2024):
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c03l9eky1p9o
Politico - Top NATO general praises Ukraine’s ‘great’ war strategy (July 19, 2024):
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-has-great-war-strategy-but-needs-to-be-able-to-prosecute-it-top-nato-general-says/
CNN - The West finally allowed Ukraine to strike back at Russia — and it seems to be working (July 15, 2024):
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/14/europe/western-weapons-ukraine-russia-intl-cmd/index.html
Artillery Shells
RFE/RL - EU Shell-Production Capacity, Supplies To Ukraine Fall Far Short Of Promises (July 8, 2024):
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-weapons-shells-european-union-eu-war-russia-investigation/33025300.html
Reuters - Years of miscalculations by U.S., NATO led to dire shell shortage in Ukraine (July 19, 2024):
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-artillery/
Drone Warfare
Forbes - Supply Chain Drones: Novelty Or News? (June 20, 2024):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kevinomarah/2024/06/20/supply-chain-drones-novelty-or-news/
Phys dot Org - AI-enhanced model predicts wheat health across diverse soils using drone data (December 2023):
https://phys.org/news/2023-12-ai-enhanced-wheat-health-diverse-soils.html#google_vignette
Business Insider - Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt quietly created a company called White Stork, which plans to build AI-powered attack drones, report says (January 2024):
https://www.businessinsider.com/google-eric-schmidt-ai-attack-drones-white-stork-2024-1
Business Insider - Eric Schmidt is poaching from Apple, SpaceX, and Google for his secretive AI military drone project (June 2024):
https://www.businessinsider.com/eric-schmidt-poaches-apple-spacex-google-ai-drones-report-2024-6
Politico - ‘Our Oppenheimer moment’ — In Ukraine, the robot wars have already begun (May 2024):
https://www.politico.eu/article/robots-coming-ukraine-testing-ground-ai-artificial-intelligence-powered-combat-war-russia/
Guardian - AI’s ‘Oppenheimer moment’: autonomous weapons enter the battlefield (July 14, 2024):
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/jul/14/ais-oppenheimer-moment-autonomous-weapons-enter-the-battlefield
Robots and Skilled Labor
Statista - China Leads Growth of Global Industrial Robot Stock (November 2023):
https://www.statista.com/chart/31337/new-installations-of-industrial-robots-by-country/
European Commission - World Robotics Report 2020 by International Federation of Robots (January 2021):
https://ec.europa.eu/newsroom/rtd/items/700621/en
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Space-Based Warfare: America’s Dominance Challenged
- Space-based military capabilities allow for precision-guided weapons, navigation, and communication on the battlefield below;
- Russia has developed significant countermeasures for many of the space-based military capabilities the US has used to dominate the planet militarily for much of the 20th century;
- China is closing the gap in terms of space-based capabilities, matching the US in some areas, exceeding it in others;
- The US maintains advantages solely because of SpaceX and its pursuit of reusable launch systems;
- China is already testing prototypes for its own reusable launch systems;
References:
Forbes - Russia’s Losing In Long-Predicted Space War 1 To The West (June 26, 2024):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kevinholdenplatt/2024/06/26/so-far-russia-is-losing-the-long-predicted-space-war-against-the-west/
Military Satellites
Business Insider - China is providing satellite intelligence for military purposes to Russia, US warns, says report (April 7, 2024):
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-providing-satellite-intelligence-military-135205726.html?guccounter=1
Newsweek - China's Military Satellites Are Watching America's Every Move (May 8, 2024):
https://www.newsweek.com/china-military-satellites-space-tracking-conflict-1898177
Economist - China’s satellites are improving rapidly. The PLA will benefit (March 7, 2024):
https://www.economist.com/china/2024/03/07/chinas-satellites-are-improving-rapidly-the-pla-will-benefit
Defense One - Chinese satellites are breaking the US 'monopoly' on long-range targeting (May 2024):
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2024/05/new-chinese-satellites-ending-us-monopoly-ability-track-and-hit-long-distance-targets/396272/
Space-Based Weapons
CNN - US assesses Russia likely launched a counter space weapon last week (May 21, 2024):
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/21/politics/us-assesses-russia-launched-counter-space-weapon/index.html
Economist - A Russian anti-satellite missile test puts the ISS in peril (November 2021):
https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2021/11/18/a-russian-anti-satellite-missile-test-puts-the-iss-in-peril
BBC - X-37B: Secrets of the US military spaceplane (November 2014):
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20121123-secrets-of-us-military-spaceplane
Jamming Space-Based Capabilities
Washington Post - Russian jamming leaves some high-tech U.S. weapons ineffective in Ukraine (May 24, 2024):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/24/russia-jamming-us-weapons-ukraine/
New York Times - Russia, in New Push, Increasingly Disrupts Ukraine’s Starlink Service (May 24, 2024):
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/24/technology/ukraine-russia-starlink.html
CNN - Russia’s jamming of US-provided rocket systems complicates Ukraine’s war effort (May 2023):
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/05/politics/russia-jamming-himars-rockets-ukraine/index.html
China’s Reusable Rockets
Video From Space - Blastoff! Chinese reusable rocket soars 7 miles high and lands in test (June 24, 2024):
https://youtu.be/nTcUaZ9bLD4?si=ffWQBpTF8X4uE4pf
Space News - China to debut large reusable rockets in 2025 and 2026 (March 2024):
https://spacenews.com/china-to-debut-large-reusable-rockets-in-2025-and-2026/
SAST - China Successfully Completes Its First 10 km-level Vertical Takeoff and Landing Flight Test of Reusable Launch Vehicle (June 26, 2024):
https://www.sast.net/news/247.html
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Trump Assassination Attempt: Security Lapses, Manipulating Public Perception
- Major security lapses raise questions regarding the nature of the assassination attempt on former US President Donald Trump now 2024 US presidential candidate;
- Whether successful or not, the violence was meant to divert public attention away from on going foreign and domestic crises and deepen public attention in animosity among themselves and in what is an inconsequential election;
- The true nature of US security and law enforcement agencies necessitates serious suspicions regarding the official narrative of events;
References:
X post:
https://x.com/BrianJBerletic/status/1812372868971560960
FBI - Oregon Resident Arrested in Plot to Bomb Christmas Tree Lighting Ceremony in Portland (November 2010):
https://archive.ph/p3tG
NYT - Bomb Informer's Tapes Give Rare Glimpse of F.B.I. Dealings (1993):
https://archive.ph/Pjqyr#selection-421.0-442.0
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NATO's 2024 Summit Fails to Deliver as Russia Continues Grinding Ukraine Down
- The Western media is now admitting to a wide variety of metrics indicating Ukraine's spiral downward amid the ongoing conflict with Russia;
- Reports indicate not only manpower shortages but a problem with properly training conscripts for combat;
- Ukraine continues to suffer from a wide variety of arms and ammunition shortages, with the West now finally admitting Western military industrial production has categorically failed to meet the demands of the conflict in Ukraine;
- NATO's summit in Washington DC pledged to expand Western military industrial production but failed to lay out any of the key steps required to do so beyond political posturing;
For daily updates on the conflict in Ukraine:
The Duran (Telegram): https://t.me/thedurancom
Scott of Kalibrated (Telegram): https://t.me/kalibrated
Mark Sleboda (Telegram): https://t.me/TheRealPolitick
References:
DoD - Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine (July 11, 2024):
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3835746/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty - EU Shell-Production Capacity, Supplies To Ukraine Fall Far Short Of Promises (July 8, 2024):
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-weapons-shells-european-union-eu-war-russia-investigation/33025300.html
Wall Street Journal - NATO Allies Confront ‘Serious Gap’ in Arms Production to Counter Russia (July 9, 2024):
https://www.wsj.com/world/nato-allies-confront-serious-gap-in-arms-production-to-counter-russia-3b5b75f9
CSIS - The State of Russia's Defense Industry After Two Years of War and Sanctions (June 25, 2024):
https://www.youtube.com/live/00tPLu0g_es?si=g_g_3_SmcIZ_29Wq
WSJ - High-Tech American Weapons Work Against Russia—Until They Don’t (July 10, 2024
https://www.wsj.com/world/us-weapons-russia-ukraine-0eed240c
Bloomberg - Ukraine’s F-16 Ambitions Snarled by Language Barrier, Runways and Parts (July 12, 2024):
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-12/ukraine-s-f-16-ambitions-snarled-by-language-barrier-runways-and-parts
Washington Post - Basic training in Ukraine is barely covering the basics, commanders say (June 2, 2024):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/06/02/ukraine-training-soldiers-mobilization-war/
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The Philippines: Why it is Choosing US Destruction Over Chinese Construction
- The US has dominated the foreign and domestic policy of the Southeast Asian country of the Philippines for decades, having formally ruled the nation as a colony from 1898-1946;
- The Philippines has been used for US military basing throughout the Cold War and is now enlarging its military footprint on the Philippines under the government of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.;
- It was under President Rodrigo Duterte that the US was being pressured to leave the nation while also expanding closer ties with China who was and still is the Philippines’ largest trade partner;
- Today, infrastructure projects underway during President Duterte’s administration have been literally torn down, instead military bases are being built to point missiles at the Philippines’ largest trade partner, China;
- The US through the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) has created large numbers of media platforms, political organizations, and education programs meant to convince the Philippine people that serving US foreign policy objectives is in their own best interests;
- The ultimate irony is that these US efforts have convinced Filipinos that fighting China is necessary to protect their sovereignty, when in fact US influence over Philippine foreign policy already constitutes the usurpation of Philippine sovereignty;
- Ukraine provides an example of where this process of the US using the Philippines as a proxy against China ultimately leads if the Philippine people are unable to recognize their current government is serving US interests at the expense of their own interests;
References:
SCMP - China-Philippines ties on ‘brink of total breakdown’: unpacking the collapse (June 29, 2024):
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3268506/china-philippines-ties-brink-total-breakdown-unpacking-collapse
AP - China publicizes for the first time what it claims is a 2016 agreement with Philippines (May 3, 2024):
https://apnews.com/article/china-south-china-sea-philippines-alleged-agreement-0006abb98502727972872bcecfd49a51
SCMP - South China Sea: Philippine admiral at centre of ‘new deal’ saga breaks silence on alleged pact with Beijing (May 2024):
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3263692/south-china-sea-philippine-admiral-centre-new-deal-saga-breaks-silence-alleged-pact-beijing
US State Department, Office of the Historian - The Philippine-American War, 1899–1902:
https://history.state.gov/milestones/1899-1913/war
Rappler - Duterte falsely claims CIA funds Rappler (October 2017):
https://www.rappler.com/philippines/185098-duterte-false-claim-cia-funds-rappler-american-ownership/
National Endowment for Democracy (NED) - Nobel Peace Prize Winner Maria Ressa Joins World Movement for Democracy at NED as Chairperson (October 2022):
https://www.ned.org/nobel-peace-prize-winner-maria-ressa-joins-world-movement-for-democracy-at-ned-as-chairperson/
WDM - Maria Ressa – Chair:
https://www.movedemocracy.org/person/maria-ressa-chair
NYT - Political Meddling by Outsiders: Not New for U.S. (1997):
https://www.nytimes.com/1997/03/31/us/political-meddling-by-outsiders-not-new-for-us.html
NYT - MISSIONARIES FOR DEMOCRACY: U.S. AID FOR GLOBAL PLURALISM (1986):
https://www.nytimes.com/1986/06/01/world/missionaries-for-democracy-us-aid-for-global-pluralism.html
The Guardian - US campaign behind the turmoil in Kiev (November 2004):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/nov/26/ukraine.usa
NYT - U.S. Groups Helped Nurture Arab Uprisings (April 2011):
https://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/15/world/15aid.html
Reuters - Pentagon ran secret anti-vax campaign to undermine China during pandemic (June 14, 2024):
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-covid-propaganda/
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West Admits Ukraine is Out of Air Defenses and Losing Ground, With No Way to Reverse it
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for July 7, 2024…
- Ukraine has suffered serious losses regarding what is left of the military aviation in a series of missile strikes on Ukrainian air bases;
- Ukrainian air defenses are severely depleted, preventing Ukraine from intercepting missiles, drones, and Russian military aviation both deep behind the line of contact and along it;
- The US and its allies are admittedly out of Patriot missiles and systems to send Ukraine, forcing the collective West to resort to increasingly desperate measures to replace damaged or destroyed air defense systems;
- A recent arms transfer to Ukraine includes antiquated “HAWK” air defense systems which the US has not used for decades, along with the allocation of money to buy additional Patriot and NASAMS interceptors when they are finally manufactured;
- In addition to a worsening missile and drone war, Ukraine is also losing territory along the line of contact, with the Western media clearly laying out Russia’s strategy of attrition, placing pressure long the LOC forcing Ukraine to shift scarce reserves from one area to another, allowing Russian forces to make gains where Ukrainian lines are weakest;
- Articles spanning from the beginning of Russia’s opening of the Kharkov front to Russian gains in Chasov Yar illustrate exactly how this strategy is working for Russian forces;
- Ukraine has been officially barred from joining NATO at the moment, citing rampant corruption. An example of such corruption is the “people’s satellite” story which the Western media itself eagerly promoted, where money was raised to access civilian satellite networks supposedly to acquire target information for long-range weapons. Unfortunately, the Western media already explained in depth how these long-range strikes are done using US-NATO intel acquired from much more accurate military satellites, begging the question of what the money was really spent on;
References:
The Telegraph - Ukraine’s new F-16 fighter jets will be destroyed as soon as they arrive (July 4, 2024):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/07/04/ukraine-f16-fighter-jets-airbases-missile-drone-attacks/
UK Government - UK condemns Russia’s bombardment of Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure: UK statement to the OSCE (April 2024):
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/uk-condemns-russias-bombardment-of-ukrainian-cities-and-energy-infrastructure-uk-statement-to-the-osce
NYT - Europe Seeks to Solve the ‘Patriot Puzzle’ in Ukraine (July 4, 2024):
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/04/us/politics/ukraine-nato-patriot-air-defense.html
DoD - Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine (July 3, 2024):
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3827072/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
DoD - Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine (June 7, 2024):
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3799832/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
Voice of America - US sending Ukraine badly needed air defense missiles (July 3, 2024):
https://www.voanews.com/a/us-sending-ukraine-badly-needed-air-defense-missiles/7684294.html
Army Recognition - Germany delivers third Patriot air defense system to Ukraine amid rising Russian missile attacks (July 5, 2024):
https://armyrecognition.com/focus-analysis-conflicts/army/conflicts-in-the-world/russia-ukraine-war-2022/germany-delivers-third-patriot-air-defense-system-to-ukraine-amid-rising-russian-missile-attacks
Reuters - Zelenskiy: Ukraine wants to double air defence capabilities through the summer (July 6, 2024):
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-receives-third-patriot-air-defence-system-germany-envoy-says-2024-07-05/
The Guardian - Ukraine war briefing: Ukrainian army confirms retreat from part of key town of Chasiv Yar (July 5, 2024):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/05/ukraine-war-briefing-ukrainian-army-confirms-retreat-from-part-of-key-town-of-chasiv-yar
NYT - Facing Russian Advance, a Top Ukrainian General Paints a Bleak Picture (May 14, 2024):
https://www.nytimes.com/article/russia-ukraine-kharkiv.html
Telegraph - Ukraine to be told it is too corrupt to join Nato (July 2, 2024):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/07/02/ukraine-to-be-told-it-is-too-corrupt-to-join-nato/
New Voice of Ukraine - Anti-corruption group reveals fake companies in Kharkiv fortification contracts (May 2024):
https://english.nv.ua/nation/anti-corruption-activist-exposes-suspicious-wood-supply-contracts-for-fortifications-in-kharkiv-obla-50418691.html
Washington Post - Ukraine says defense officials stole $40 million meant for ammunition (January 2024):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/01/28/ukraine-defense-corruption-artillery-shells/
Politico - Ukraine’s ‘people’s satellite’ wreaks havoc on Russian targets (July 1, 2024):
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-satellite-russian-targets-crowdfunded-intelligence-hur/
Washington Post - Ukraine’s rocket campaign reliant on U.S. precision targeting, officials say (February 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/09/ukraine-himars-rocket-artillery-russia/
NYT - Ukraine Asks U.S. to Provide More Intelligence on Targets in Russia (May 17, 2024):
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/17/us/politics/ukraine-intelligence-russia-targets.html
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Washington's "Hellscape" Drone War vs China + its 1000 Drone Arms Deal with Taiwan Admin
FAIR USE NOTICE: This video may contain copyrighted material. Such material is made available for educational purposes only. This constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in Title 17 U.S.C. section 106A-117 of the US Copyright Law.
- US plans to create a drone "hellscape" off China's coasts ignore China's ability to create more drones, faster, and with greater capabilities than the US;
- A recent US arms deal made with the administration of the Chinese island province of Taiwan includes negligible numbers of over-priced drones proven ineffective on modern battlefields;
- Russian industry is producing more drones of greater capabilities than those sold to Taiwan per month (and in some cases, per day) and at vastly cheaper costs;
References:
Washington Post - The U.S. military plans a ‘Hellscape’ to deter China from attacking Taiwan (June 10, 2024):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/06/10/taiwan-china-hellscape-military-plan/
US State Department - US Relations with Taiwan:
https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/
Wilson Center - Joint Communiqué of the United States of America and the People's Republic of China (Shanghai Communiqué) (1972):
https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/joint-communique-between-united-states-and-china
United Nations - UN Charter (full text):
https://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-charter/full-text
Global Times - If there is a war of drone, the US military would definitely lose (June 12, 2024):
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202406/1314004.shtml
Harvard University’s Atlas of Economic Complexity - Taiwan, Exports by Partner (2021):
https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore?country=249&queryLevel=location&product=undefined&year=2021&productClass=HS&target=Partner&partner=undefined&startYear=undefined
Harvard University’s Atlas of Economic Complexity - Taiwan, Imports by Partner (2021):
https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore?country=249&queryLevel=location&product=undefined&year=2021&tradeDirection=import&productClass=HS&target=Partner&partner=undefined&startYear=undefined
CSIS - The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan (January 2023):
https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan
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US Role in Deadly ATACMS Strike on Crimean Beach & Why Ukraine Calls Crimeans "Civilian Occupiers"
- A deadly ATACMS strike on a Crimean beach left several civilians dead including children, followed by Moscow blaming Washington for the attack;
- Senior Ukrainian presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak refused to apologize for the attack, instead insisting civilians are considered “occupiers” and that signs of peaceful life on the peninsula cannot be allowed;
- The US provides Ukraine with all targeting data for HIMARS/M270 strikes for both shorter range guided rockets and longer range ATACMS;
- Leaked audio between senior German military officers reveal that all NATO long-range weapons require NATO mission planning and targeting data transferred to Ukrainians, with the addition of US and British personnel on the ground helping prepare weapons for strikes;
References:
NEO - US-Ukrainian ATACMS Strikes on Crimea Vindicate Moscow (June 28, 2024):
https://journal-neo.su/2024/06/28/us-ukrainian-atacms-strikes-on-crimea-vindicate-moscow/
Ukrinform - There cannot be any "beaches," "tourist zones" and other fictitious signs of "peaceful life" in Crimea, temporarily occupied by the Russians (June 25, 2024):
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3878303-podolyak-on-explosions-in-crimea-there-cannot-be-any-beaches-and-tourist-zones-on-peninsula.html
The Telegraph - Ukraine suspected of ATACMS strike on Russian space control centre in Crimea, Ukraine: The Latest (June 25, 2024):
https://youtu.be/e_MvjQ7Ip_8?si=kvRg2vznukWbuc_F
The Telegraph - Crimean sunbathers struck by deadly shrapnel shower from Ukrainian missile (June 23, 2024):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/06/23/shrapnel-from-missile-fired-by-ukraine-hits-tourists-crimea/
The Guardian - US campaign behind the turmoil in Kiev (November 2014):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/nov/26/ukraine.usa
USAID, IRI - Public Opinion Survey Residents of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea May 16 – 30, 2013:
https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/pnaec705.pdf
BBC - Russian parliament approves troop deployment in Ukraine (March 2014):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26400035
Washington Post - Ukraine’s rocket campaign reliant on U.S. precision targeting, officials say (February 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/09/ukraine-himars-rocket-artillery-russia/
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West Admits Ukraine’s Growing Manpower Crisis + the Evolution of Russia’s FAB-3000 Bomb
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for June 30, 2024...
- Western media admits Ukraine’s forces are stretched, forcing Kiev to move troops engaged in one desperate battle to another to prevent lines from collapsing;
- Ukraine’s mobilization is faced by large numbers of Ukrainian men fleeing the country;
- Ukraine is now resorting to recruiting from prisons;
- Western arms supplies are admittedly not enough to reach all sections of the Ukrainian front;
- Moves to secure more Patriot systems do not solve the problem of too few interceptor missiles being produced annually;
- Additional Patriot missile launchers may allow Ukraine to temporarily disrupt Russian glide bomb operations, but only until Russia eliminates Patriots near the line of contact as it did earlier this year;
- Initial claims that Russia’s FAB-3000 bomb was impractical have been proven false by a series of strikes using the munition;
- Russian glide bombs have been steadily improved and built in greater numbers since their appearance in the conflict and will continue to be advanced in quantities, range, and capabilities;
References:
BBC - 'There was no preparation': One marine's story of defending Kharkiv (June 29, 2024):
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjerdw9g159o
Guardian - ‘I am not made for war’: the men fleeing Ukraine to evade conscription (June 29, 2024):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/29/i-am-not-made-for-war-the-men-fleeing-ukraine-to-evade-conscription
Al Jazeera - Russia suffers setbacks as Ukraine braces for tough month on battlefield (June 27, 2024):
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/27/russia-suffers-setbacks-as-ukraine-braces-for-tough-month-on-battlefield
Forbes - Don’t Fear Russia’s 3.3-Ton Glide-Bomb. It’s Massive Overkill When A 1.1-Ton Glide-Bomb Will Kill You Just Fine (May 26, 2024):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/03/25/dont-fear-russias-66-ton-glide-bomb-its-massive-overkill-when-a-11-ton-glide-bomb-will-kill-you-just-fine/
Forbes - FORBES BUSINESS AEROSPACE & DEFENSE Russia’s 3.3-Ton Glide Bombs Scatter Shrapnel Farther Than Half A Mile. But The Bombs Are Scarier Than They Are Effective (June 22, 2024):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/06/22/russias-33-ton-glide-bombs-scatter-shrapnel-farther-than-half-a-mile-but-the-bombs-are-scarier-than-they-are-effective/
The Drive’s Warzone - Is This Our First Look At Russia’s New Monster Glide Bomb Striking Ukraine? (June 20, 2024):
https://www.twz.com/air/is-this-our-first-look-at-russias-new-monster-glide-bomb-striking-ukraine
Kyiv Indepedent - Inside Ukraine’s prison recruitment efforts to bolster front-line troops (June 12, 2024):
https://kyivindependent.com/inside-ukraines-prisoner-recruitment-efforts-to-bolster-front-line-troops/
AP - US is expected to send Ukraine $150 million more in munitions to fight off Russia’s attacks (June 25, 2024):
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-missiles-russia-military-aid-us-10508d1ea26ed047a183a1daea02d773
FT - US in talks to send Israel’s Patriot systems to Ukraine (June 2024):
https://www.ft.com/content/1c938d86-ab11-4d75-b005-1e02bf9b4dda
CNN - Biden administration moves toward allowing American military contractors to deploy to Ukraine (June 25, 2024):
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/25/politics/biden-administration-american-military-contractors-ukraine/index.html
Business Insider - Ukraine destroyed columns of waiting Russian troops as soon as it was allowed to strike across the border, commander says (June 24, 2024):
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-destroyed-columns-russia-soldiers-himars-us-restrictions-lifted-commander-2024-6
BBC - Zelensky sacks top general accused of incompetence (June 25, 2024):
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c7225wrzlpqo
Forbes - Don’t Fear Russia’s 3.3-Ton Glide-Bomb. It’s Massive Overkill When A 1.1-Ton Glide-Bomb Will Kill You Just Fine (May 26, 2024):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/03/25/dont-fear-russias-66-ton-glide-bomb-its-massive-overkill-when-a-11-ton-glide-bomb-will-kill-you-just-fine/
Forbes - Russia’s 3.3-Ton Glide Bombs Scatter Shrapnel Farther Than Half A Mile. But The Bombs Are Scarier Than They Are Effective (June 22, 2024):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/06/22/russias-33-ton-glide-bombs-scatter-shrapnel-farther-than-half-a-mile-but-the-bombs-are-scarier-than-they-are-effective/
The Drive’s Warzone - Is This Our First Look At Russia’s New Monster Glide Bomb Striking Ukraine? (June 20, 2024):
https://www.twz.com/air/is-this-our-first-look-at-russias-new-monster-glide-bomb-striking-ukraine
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SpaceX's Starship & the Geopolitical Implications of Reusable Rockets
US-based SpaceX’ Starship program and its implications on geopolitics…
- SpaceX continues developing its Starship program after its 2nd integrated flight test (IFT2) on September 18, 2023;
- Starship, when operational, will be the first fully reusable launch system able to recover and reuse both the 1st stage booster like SpaceX’ current Falcon family of rockets, but also the 2nd stage;
- Starship is also the largest, most powerful launch system on Earth at the moment;
- Reusability drives costs down and enables nations with access to such systems to establish orbital infrastructure quicker, cheaper, and on larger scales;
- SpaceX’ Falcon 9 rockets have already allowed SpaceX to create the Starlink constellation of satellites providing lower-latency satellite communication with greater coverage than any other current or even planned networks;
- In the event of conflict in space where nations begin targeting navigational, surveillance, and communication satellites, the nation with the ability to launch new satellites into space quicker and cheaper will have a clear advantage;
- Resources in the Earth’s solar system vastly dwarf resources found on Earth and can support a multiplanetary civilization on a scale of size and abundance hitherto unimaginable, reusability is the key to tapping this potential;
References:
NSF - After upgrades, Starship achieves numerous successes during second test flight (November 17, 2023):
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2023/11/ift-2-launch/
Our World in Data - Cost of space launches to low Earth orbit:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cost-space-launches-low-earth-orbit
Follow Spaceflight:
NASASpaceflight on YouTube:
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https://www.youtube.com/@EverydayAstronaut
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West Admits Ukraine is Losing, Little Can Be Done to Change this Fact
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for November 13, 2023…
- Ukraine is losing its conflict with Russia according to a growing list of metrics reported on by the Western media;
- This includes the net loss of territory despite a 5 month offensive;
- Ukraine and its Western backers are losing in terms of military industrial production;
- Ukraine is also losing in qualitative terms, admittedly being outfought in the air, through electronic warfare, and counter-battery operations;
- The collective West has no plan even being discussed that can reverse any of these factors;
References:
Newsweek - Ukraine Map Shows Avdiivka Almost Fully Encircled by Russia's 40K Troops (November 10, 2023):
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-map-avdiivka-russia-troops-counteroffensive-1842601
France24 - The Dnipro River, a key front line between Russian and Ukrainian troops (November 10, 2023):
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231110-the-dnipro-river-a-rampart-winding-through-ukraine-war
RAND Corporation - Extending Russia, Competing from Advantageous Ground (2019):
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html
The Telegraph - Ukraine’s army is running out of men to recruit, and time to win (August 2023):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/08/22/ukraines-army-is-running-out-of-men-to-recruit/
Mediazona - Russian casualties in Ukraine. Mediazona count, updated (November 3, 2023):
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng
Business Insider - Ukraine official says it can't properly use its Western kit because it has so few soldiers left, report says (October 31, 2023):
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-cant-use-western-weapons-due-to-soldier-shortage-report-2023-10
The Washington Post - Ukraine short of skilled troops and munitions as losses, pessimism grow (March 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/13/ukraine-casualties-pessimism-ammunition-shortage/
New York TImes - Who’s Gaining Ground in Ukraine? This Year, No One (September 2023):
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/09/28/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-map-front-line.html
Reuters - Ukrainian refugees: how will the economy recover with a diminished population? (July 2023):
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/however-war-ends-ukraines-diminished-population-will-hit-economy-years-2023-07-07/
NBC News - U.S., European officials broach topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine, sources say (Nov 4, 2023):
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/us-european-officials-broach-topic-peace-negotiations-ukraine-sources-rcna123628
Mark Sleboda on Substack - Kiev Regime General Zaluzhny Tells the Economist What He Needs to Win - "Wunderwaffe" Future Miracle Weapons and his own equivalent Russian Army, the Future of War, more… (November 4, 2023):
https://marksleboda.substack.com/p/kiev-regime-general-zaluzhny-tells#details
Simplicius The Thinker on Substack - Zaluzhny Pens Oped for The Economist: "How to Win the War" - Analysis (November 4, 2023):
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/zaluzhny-pens-oped-for-the-economist?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
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US Proxy Wars: Israel Gears Up for Gaza Incursion as Initiative Passes to Russia in Ukraine
Update on the conflict in Ukraine + Middle East for October 17, 2023
- Russia continues overturning what negligible gains Ukraine made during its over 4 month-long offensive in Zaporozhye;
- Russian operations in Avdeevka continue, however no major “offensive” has been announced by Russian military or political leaders;
- Attempts by Russia to exploit possible opportunities along the line of contact are measured, with limitations identified by Russian commanders in stark contrast to Ukraine’s stand-and-fight approach;
- In the Middle East, fighting continues between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon as Israeli military operations continue to target Gaza;
- Israel has taken action to compel Palestinians to evacuate from northern parts of Gaza in what is likely an attempt to seize the territory and prevent a future return by Palestinians to the area;
- Israel’s continued violation of international law and belligerence toward its neighbors is an unsustainable policy that undermines its own self-preservation, like most US proxies;
- Russia and China are in a better position now than ever to advance the two-state solution and are creating a region in which this solution can actually materialize;
References:
Politico - Putin hammers Ukraine with West distracted by Middle East crisis (October 16, 2023):
https://www.politico.eu/article/leaders-distracted-war-hamas-israel-crisis-russia-putin-attacks-ukraine-kherson/
VOA - Russian Military Operations Slacken Near Strategic Town of Avdiivka (OOctober 16, 2023):
https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-returns-several-ukrainian-children-in-qatar-brokered-deal-/7312473.html
TASS - Russian forces continuing to implement master plan during special op — Shoigu (October 16, 2023):
https://tass.com/politics/1691503
CNN - Russia’s jamming of US-provided rocket systems complicates Ukraine’s war effort (May 2023):
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/05/politics/russia-jamming-himars-rockets-ukraine/index.html
Defense News - Lockheed wins $4.8B guided rockets contract (April 2023):
https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/aaaa/2023/04/27/lockheed-wins-48b-guided-rockets-contract/
Times of Israel - Hezbollah shoots at IDF posts, fires missile at tank in fresh Lebanon border clashes (October 16, 2023):
https://www.timesofisrael.com/hezbollah-shoots-at-idf-posts-fires-missile-at-tank-in-fresh-lebanon-border-clashes/
The Telegraph - Israeli tanks with Ukraine-style ‘anti-drone cages’ line up on Gaza border (October 16, 2023):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/10/16/israel-tanks-installed-cope-cages-drone-bomb-defence/
Haaretz - Hezbollah Anti-tank Fire Causing Most IDF Casualties in Lebanon (August 2006):
https://www.haaretz.com/2006-08-06/ty-article/hezbollah-anti-tank-fire-causing-most-idf-casualties-in-lebanon/0000017f-dbc4-d856-a37f-ffc41fc50000
NYT - A Disciplined Hezbollah Surprises Israel With Its Training, Tactics and Weapons (August 2006):
https://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/07/world/middleeast/07hezbollah.html
RAND Corporation - Extending Russia (2019):
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html
CSIS - The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan (2023):
https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan
Brookings Institution - Which Path to Persia? (2009):
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/06_iran_strategy.pdf
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US Running Low on Weapons as Proxy Wars Target Russia, Iran, & China
Update on the conflict in Ukraine + Israeli-Palestinian conflict for October 14, 2023
- Ukraine’s offensive has culminated, in many areas is being overturned by Russian counter-offensives;
- Western military assistance continues to dwindle for Ukraine and is now being divided between both Ukraine and Israel;
- Israel’s military and political leadership have openly announced a deliberate intention to cut off civilians from food and fuel while bombarding them with military aviation and other long-range weapons;
- Israel is contemplating a ground operation into Gaza;
- The Middle East has been pivoting slowly away from US primacy, toward a Russian-Chinese led multipolar order;
- Hamas raids and Israel’s disproportionate response pose a danger to this process - forcing the region to be drawn into an armed conflict at risk of escalating;
- Hamas’ background and actions over the last 2 decades have served US foreign policy objectives, including supporting regime change attempts in Syria and to perpetuate, not end Israeli occupation and military aggression;
- Russia/China seek a two-state solution, in accordance with the UN, and seeks to reshape the region in a way that will make the two-state solution possible;
Reference:
Ukraine
Defense News - Germany to send Ukraine $1B in air defense tech, plus more tanks (October 11, 2023):
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2023/10/11/germany-to-send-ukraine-1b-in-air-defense-tech-plus-more-tanks/
US DoD - Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine (October 11, 2023):
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3553644/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
TIME - Biden and Congress Craft $2 Billion Aid Package as Israel Vows to ‘Crush’ Hamas (October 11, 2023):
https://time.com/6322820/israel-aid-biden-congress-hamas/
Bloomberg - US Gives First Iron Dome Interceptors to Israel (October 13, 2023):
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-12/pentagon-owned-stocks-in-israel-transfered-to-defense-forces
Israeli Ops
EI - Gaza’s beauty and struggle from above:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2mMjs8nMMs
BBC - Hamas attack: 12 Thais killed and 11 kidnapped in Israel (October 11, 2023):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-67052021
Guardian - ‘Emphasis is on damage, not accuracy’: ground offensive into Gaza seems imminent (October 10, 2023):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/10/right-now-it-is-one-day-at-a-time-life-on-israels-frontline-with-gaza
BBC - Israel's military says it fully controls communities on Gaza border (October 10, 2023):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67050127
Business Insider - For people in Gaza, life is about to get even worse, with Israel's siege about to 'starve the population,' NGO says (October 11, 2023):
https://www.businessinsider.com/gaza-strip-life-get-worse-israel-cut-food-fuel-power-2023-10
Russia and China
Politico - Putin blames US for Israel-Hamas conflict (October 10, 2023):
https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-russia-blames-us-over-isreal-hamas-conflict/
GT - US' biased stance risks undermining efforts to defuse Israel-Gaza tension (October 11, 2023):
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202310/1299692.shtml
Hamas: Background, Current Role
NYT - U.S. Groups Helped Nurture Arab Uprisings (April 2011):
https://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/15/world/15aid.html
WSJ - How Israel Helped to Spawn Hamas (January 2009):
https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB123275572295011847
Haaretz - Why Did Netanyahu Want to Strengthen Hamas? (October 11, 2023):
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-11/ty-article/.premium/netanyahu-needed-a-strong-hamas/0000018b-1e9f-d47b-a7fb-bfdfd8f30000
The New Yorker - The Redirection (by Seymour Hersh, 2007):
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2007/03/05/the-redirection
Reuters - Hamas ditches Assad, backs Syrian revolt (February 2012):
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-palestinians-idUSTRE81N1CC20120224
WaPo - U.S., Qatar agree to stop Iran from tapping $6 billion fund after Hamas attack (October 12, 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/10/12/iran-oil-fund-us-israel/
Govinfo - HAMAS' BENEFACTORS: A NETWORK OF TERROR (2014):
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-113hhrg89738/html/CHRG-113hhrg89738.htm
AJ - Israel to create a unity government and war cabinet to oversee the fight against Hamas (October 13, 2023):
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/13/israel-unity-government
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Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Continues: Israel Flattens Gaza Following Hamas Raids
LIVE update on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for October 11, 2023
- Gaza is being flattened by Israeli airstrikes following several days of Hamas raids into Israeli-held territory;
- war crimes are being committed on both sides;
- attempts by the Western politicians to implicate Iran while the US moves military assets into the region for a possible escalation beyond Israel and Palestine;
- it is important to separate emotions from facts because short-term “revenge” almost always complicates long-term strategic victory;
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References:
SITREP
Reuters - Israel prepares ground offensive; Biden pledges support after Hamas attacks (October 10, 2023):
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-prepares-ground-offensive-biden-pledges-support-after-hamas-attacks-2023-10-10/
Israeli Violations of International Law
UNOHCHR - Five years after UNSC Resolution 2334, international accountability to end the Israeli occupation is more important than ever (2021):
https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2021/12/five-years-after-unsc-resolution-2334-international-accountability-end#:~:text=Resolution%202334%2C%20adopted%20by%20the,â%C2%80%C2%9Cimmediately%20and%20completely%20cease.%22
Hamas Backing US Proxy War Against Syria
Reuters - Hamas ditches Assad, backs Syrian revolt (February 2012):
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-palestinians-idUSTRE81N1CC20120224
BBC - Gaza fighters head to Syria as refugees flow in (December 2013):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-25362202
FT - Egypt cut ties to Assad regime and calls for support of rebels (2013):
https://www.ft.com/content/8088e7f6-d685-11e2-9214-00144feab7de
AJ - Egypt’s Sisi expresses support for Syria’s military (2016):
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/11/23/egypts-sisi-expresses-support-for-syrias-military
Arab Spring: Feigned Surprise by Western Intelligence Community
LA Times - U.S. intelligence official acknowledges missed Arab Spring signs (July 2012):
https://www.latimes.com/archives/blogs/world-now/story/2012-07-19/u-s-intelligence-official-acknowledges-missed-arab-spring-signs
NYT - U.S. Groups Helped Nurture Arab Uprisings (April 2011):
https://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/15/world/15aid.html
Inaugural AYM SUmmit and Egypt’s Shabab April 6 Movement (2011 - Archived):
https://web.archive.org/web/20110410231924/http://www.movements.org/blog/entry/first-aym-summit/
AYM Summit 2008 (Archived):
https://web.archive.org/web/20111107205508/http://allyoumov.3cdn.net/f734ac45131b2bbcdb_w6m6idptn.pdf
US State Department - Secretary Clinton Addresses Youth Movement Summit (video 2009):
https://youtu.be/OcBG7B6sgOk?si=bMkAGgtBCeT3IIUn
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Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Erupts Amid US Proxy War in Ukraine
Update on Israeli-Palestinian Conflict for October 9, 2023
- As US proxy war in Ukraine continues to tip in Russia's favor, armed conflict has broken out between Palestinian-based Hamas militants and Israeli forces;
- Israeli-Palestinian tensions stem from the Israeli government's decades-long occupation of Palestinian territory in violation of international law and laid out specifically in UN resolutions;
- Both Hamas and Israeli forces are currently targeting both military targets and civilians;
-Israel has for decades served the purpose of a foothold for first British then American hegemony in the Middle East;
- Hamas has a problematic background that complicates Palestine's ability to resolve hostilities between it and Israel;
- Hamas has previously served as a proxy along with Israel in the US proxy war against Syria;
- Israel is requesting additional military aid from a depleted United States, limiting its ability to escalate vs. Hamas and within the wider region;
References:
CNN - Israel formally declares war against Hamas as it battles to push militants off its soil (October 8, 2023):
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/08/middleeast/israel-gaza-attack-hostages-response-intl-hnk/index.html
Reuters - U.S. redirecting Israel-stored munitions to Ukraine - New York Times (January 2023):
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-sent-israel-stored-munitions-ukraine-new-york-times-2023-01-18/
Defense News - Israel orders tens of thousands of 155mm artillery shells from Elbit (August 2023):
https://www.defensenews.com/industry/2023/08/04/israel-orders-tens-of-thousands-of-155mm-artillery-shells-from-elbit/
Elbit Systems - Artillery Ammunition Portfolio:
https://elbitsystems.com/product/artillery-ammunition-portfolio/
NYT - U.S. Speeds Up Bomb Delivery for the Israelis (2006):
https://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/22/world/middleeast/22military.html
Background
UN Human Rights, Office of the High Commissioner - Five years after UNSC Resolution 2334, international accountability to end the Israeli occupation is more important than ever (December 2021):
https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2021/12/five-years-after-unsc-resolution-2334-international-accountability-end#:~:text=Resolution%202334%2C%20adopted%20by%20the,“immediately%20and%20completely%20cease.%22
Reuters - Hamas ditches Assad, backs Syrian revolt (2012):
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-palestinians-idUSTRE81N1CC20120224
BBC - Gaza fighters head to Syria as refugees flow in (2013):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-25362202
Reuters - Hamas to restore Syria ties after 10 years of dispute, sources say (2022):
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-restore-syria-ties-after-10-years-dispute-sources-say-2022-06-21/
FT - Egypt cut ties to Assad regime and calls for support of rebels (2013):
https://www.ft.com/content/8088e7f6-d685-11e2-9214-00144feab7de
Al Jazeera - Egypt’s Sisi expresses support for Syria’s military (2016):
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/11/23/egypts-sisi-expresses-support-for-syrias-military
Reuters - Russia calls on Israel and Palestinians to cease fire (October 7, 2023):
https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-calls-israel-palestinians-cease-fire-2023-10-07/
Bloomberg - China Reiterates Two-State Solution Needed for Israel, Palestine (October 8, 2023):
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-08/china-reiterates-two-state-solution-needed-for-israel-palestine
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The New Atlas LIVE: Scott of Kalibrated on Ukraine's Faltered Offensive, Funding & Arms Shortages
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NATO Testing Waters on Buffer Zone as Ukraine Offensive Grinds to Halt
Update for the conflict in Ukraine for October 2, 2023
- Ukraine’s offensive is now at the 4 month mark, exhausting its potential and failing to achieve any of its objectives;
- The Western media admits that Russia has actually gained more territory this year including during the Ukrainian offensive despite being on the defensive;
- Russia continues degrading a variety of Ukrainian military capabilities the West cannot sufficiently replace while maintaining pressure along the line of contact;
- Both the Russian economy and its military industrial base are admittedly growing while Ukraine and its Western sponsors exhaust their stockpiles, lacking the ability to renew them;
- The West continues talking about building military industrial projects within Ukrainian territory, with the UK recently claiming they may send British troops to “train” Ukrainians in Ukraine;
- This appears to be the foundation for creating a “buffer zone” within western Ukraine, similar to the US-Turkish occupation in Syria, meant to freeze the conflict;
References:
Failing Offensive
New York TImes - Who’s Gaining Ground in Ukraine? This Year, No One (September 28, 2023):
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/09/28/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-map-front-line.html
RT - Russian general in charge of Ukraine operation speaks out (October 2022):
https://www.rt.com/russia/564934-general-surovikin-ukraine-operation/
The Times - Ukraine counteroffensive: ‘I’m ready to die . . . 90% of the guys here will die too’ (September 5, 2023):
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-counteroffensive-i-m-ready-to-die-90-of-the-guys-here-will-die-too-76jvs3kwj
Mediazona - Russian casualties in Ukraine (September 22, 2023):
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng
NYT - Russia Overcomes Sanctions to Expand Missile Production, Officials Say (September 13, 2023):
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/13/us/politics/russia-sanctions-missile-production.html
Novaya Gazeta - The barren barrels (November 2022):
https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022/11/02/the-barren-barrels-en
NYT - Defenses Carved Into the Earth (December 2022):
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/14/world/europe/russian-trench-fortifications-in-ukraine.html
War on the Rocks - A Chat with Britain’s Top Officer, Adm. Radakin (September 18, 2023):
https://warontherocks.com/2023/09/a-chat-with-britains-top-officer-adm-radakin/
Alexander Mercouris - NYT Ukr No Gains, Budanov: Continuing on Foot; German MSM: Rus Army Stronger; France Out of Niger (September 29, 2023):
https://youtu.be/q6hbriZynaQ?si=4XzGRPdp4IJzl-nD
Foreign Policy - Ukraine’s Longest Day (April 2023):
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/18/ukraine-russia-war-counteroffensive-attack-bakhmut-himars/
Buffer Zone
NYT - Western Leaders Urge Arms Manufacturing in Ukraine (September 28, 2023):
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/28/world/europe/ukraine-arms-manufacturing-nato.html
The Guardian - British troops could deploy to Ukraine for first time to train soldiers, says Grant Shapps (September 30, 2023):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/30/british-troops-could-deploy-to-ukraine-to-train-soldiers-says-grant-shapps
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Ukrainian Intel Head Admits Failures, Canada Exposes West as on Wrong Side of History
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for September 25, 2023
- ATACMS will not arrive in numbers large enough for strategic impact;
- Ukrainian intelligence chief admits to Ukraine's multiplying failures and obstacles including a lack of infantry and artillery to support them on the battlefield;
- US-made M1 Abrams main battle tanks must be held back from the front line or they will be destroyed alongside German Leopard 2 and British Challenger 2 tanks according to Ukrainian intel chief;
- Canada's parliament accidentally invited and honored a World War 2 veteran who fought for German Axis forces;
- The incident highlights Ukraine's past and present problems stemming from its relationship with Germany during World War 2;
References:
ATACMS
Washington Post - U.S. will send Ukraine long-range missiles, after delay (September 22, 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/09/22/atacms-ukraine-cluster-munitions/
The Drive - Decision To Give ATACMS To Ukraine Is About To Become Easier (September 19, 2023):
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/one-argument-against-giving-atacms-to-ukraine-is-about-to-erode
Lockheed Martin - Lockheed Martin To Deliver PrSM To The US Army For Early Fielding (September 2022):
https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2022-09-27-lockheed-martin-to-deliver-prsm-to-the-us-army-for-early-fielding#:~:text=Releases,-Newsroom&text=DALLAS%2C%20Sept.,Precision%20Strike%20Missiles%20(PrSM)
CNN - Russia’s jamming of US-provided rocket systems complicates Ukraine’s war effort (May 2023):
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/05/politics/russia-jamming-himars-rockets-ukraine/index.html
Ukrainian Military Intelligence
The Drive, The Warzone - Exclusive Interview With Ukraine’s Spy Boss From His DC Hotel Room (September 22, 2023):
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/exclusive-interview-with-ukraines-spy-boss-from-his-dc-hotel-room
Mediazona - Russian casualties in Ukraine (September 22, 2023):
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng
NYT - Russia Overcomes Sanctions to Expand Missile Production, Officials Say (September 13, 2023):
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/13/us/politics/russia-sanctions-missile-production.html
Canadian Government, Jewish Ukrainian President Gives WW2 N*az* Standing Ovation
CBC News - CBC News Special: President Zelensky Address to Parliament (September 23, 2023):
https://www.youtube.com/live/7m_QRRxG1Mk?si=3ZSaC2mBCvivW38q&t=4200
Washington Post - Canadian House speaker apologizes after honoring veteran of Nazi unit (September 24, 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/24/canadian-speaker-apologizes-ukrainian-nazi/
Wikipedia - World War II:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II
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West Admits Russia Outguns Them as Ukraine Suffers Heavy Losses Amid Failing Offensive
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for September 18, 2023
- Ukrainian offensive operations remain stagnant along the line of contact with Russian counterattacks overturning what superficial progress they do make;
- The Western media citing US and other NATO member state officials admits Ukrainian forces lacked the proper training to conduct a successful offensive;
- As Western sources begin admitting to Ukraine's catastrophic losses in men and materiel, they also admit Russian losses are near all time lows;
- The collective West also acknowledges that the amount of ammunition and weapons Ukraine requires is beyond the West’s ability to provide both in the short and intermediate future;
- In order to provide such levels of material support, the West would need to significantly mobilize its population, industry, and military, a prospect that isn’t even being seriously considered let alone planned;
References:
BBC - War in Ukraine: Is the counter-offensive making progress? (September 18, 2023):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66796358
Mediazona - Russian casualties in Ukraine (Updated September 8, 2023):
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng
Guardian - West must focus on preparing Ukraine’s troops – or we will all pay the price (July 23, 2023):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/23/west-must-focus-on-preparing-ukraines-troops-or-we-will-all-pay-the-price
Wall Street Journal - The Secret of Ukraine’s Military Success: Years of NATO Training (April 2022):
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-military-success-years-of-nato-training-11649861339
FT - The hard lessons from Ukraine’s summer offensive (September 15, 2023):
https://www.ft.com/content/e83bd6fe-43b8-4adf-9bea-07609bc223d0
NYT - Russia Overcomes Sanctions to Expand Missile Production, Officials Say (September 13, 2023):
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/13/us/politics/russia-sanctions-missile-production.html
n.html
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China's Technological Edge, Ukraine's Insurmountable Odds, Tensions in Korea, & NATO Posturing
In my recent discussion with Garland Nixon and Dr. Wilmer Leon we discuss:
- Huawei's Mate 60 Pro which includes chips possibly made indigenously in China represents China's growing technological edge despite extreme measures by the US & its allies to arrest its development;
- Ukraine's failing offensive is just the visual manifestation of much greater fundamental odds it and its Western sponsors cannot overcome, particularly in terms of military industrial output;
- Tension on the Korean Peninsula is the result of the United States attempting to create yet another proxy conflict like in Ukraine against Russia, but this time across Asia against China;
- NATO exercises meant to intimidate Russia are more posturing than any actual serious message. Posturing without the military industrial capacity to sustain the type of warfare required to defeat Russia is meaningless;
▪️Follow Garland on Twitter here: https://twitter.com/GarlandNixon
▪️Follow Garland on YouTube here: https://www.youtube.com/@garlandn/featured
▪️Dr. Leon on Twitter: https://twitter.com/DrWLeon
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Air Bases, Drone Swarms & New Ports: US Military Footprint in Asia Grows, But China Grows Faster
US Expands Military Footprint in Asia, But China is Expanding Faster
- US seeks to adopt new doctrine to improve survivability of its air bases in the Pacific amid war with China;
- The doctrinal shift will take years and likely won’t be complete until after China irreversibly surpasses the US economically and militarily;
- The US is also building “civilian” infrastructure close to the Chinese island province of Taiwan, further escalating tensions between the US and China but also involving the Philippines deeper as a US proxy;
- The Philippines had been a US colony until 1946 and Washington has sought to reassert itself over Filipino sovereignty ever since, compelling Manila to make decisions that suit Washington at Manila’s expense;
- China is the Philippines’ largest trade partner, thus Manila siding with Washington against China will cost the Philippines opportunities the US cannot offer in terms of economics and development;
- A US attempt to develop drone swarms to mitigate China’s advantage in manpower and materiel ignores the fact that China’s growing advantage would also allow it to easily produce larger drone swarms of its own;
References:
New Eastern Outlook - Washington’s Expanding Military Footprint on China’s Doorsteps:
https://journal-neo.su/2023/09/05/washingtons-expanding-military-footprint-on-chinas-doorsteps/
Sputnik International - US Seeks to Divide Indo-Pacific, Use New Alliances as 'Proxies Against China':
https://sputnikglobe.com/20230911/us-seeks-to-divide-indo-pacific-use-new-alliances-as-proxies-against-china-1113272705.html
Defense One - Air Force expanding number of bases in Pacific over next decade:
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/08/air-force-expanding-number-bases-pacific-over-next-decade/389834/
US Air Force - Air Force Doctrine Note 1-21, Agile Combat Employment (ACE) (August 2022):
https://www.doctrine.af.mil/Portals/61/documents/AFDN_1-21/AFDN%201-21%20ACE.pdf
Reuters - Exclusive: U.S military in talks to develop port in Philippines facing Taiwan (August 31, 2023):
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-military-talks-develop-port-philippines-facing-taiwan-2023-08-30/
US State Department, Office of the Historian - The Philippine-American War, 1899–1902:
https://history.state.gov/milestones/1899-1913/war
CSIS, China Power - How Much Trade Transits the South China Sea?:
https://chinapower.csis.org/much-trade-transits-south-china-sea/
VOA - US, Vietnam Highlight Elevated Relationship (September 10, 2023):
https://www.voanews.com/a/biden-opens-vietnam-visit-by-saying-two-countries-are-critical-partners-at-critical-time-/7261879.html
Global Times - Vietnam's first city metro, built by China, carries 14,917 passengers per day (January 2022):
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202201/1245916.shtml
SCB - Vietnam launches freight train routes to Europe:
https://www.scb.co.th/en/personal-banking/stories/business-maker/vietnam-europe-freight-train-route.html?hash_primary=A22D05E0961E6E5553C8BFF5141C3C9FC53534AA
Defense One - ‘Hellscape’: DOD launches massive drone swarm program to counter China:
https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2023/08/hellscape-dod-launches-massive-drone-swarm-program-counter-china/389797/
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US Considers ATACMS as Ukraine's Offensive Struggles + Problems to Come
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for September 11, 2023
- Fighting continues around the village of Robotyne despite Western claims that Ukraine has pushed on south and southeast of it;
- Russian forces continue pressing along the line of contact across the Donbass region;
- The US is considering sending ATACMS to Ukraine. The long-range weapon system does not represent a capability Russia does not already have in greater quantities nor a threat Russia is not prepared to defend against;
- Western analysts are beginning to understand the missteps made during Ukraine’s offensive, however, they still insist expanding Western military industrial output quick enough to aid Ukraine in the current conflict is possible (it is not);
References:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - Michael Kofman:
https://carnegieendowment.org/experts/2362
War on the Rocks - Perseverance and Adaptation: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive at Three Months (September 4, 2023):
https://warontherocks.com/2023/09/perseverance-and-adaptation-ukraines-counteroffensive-at-three-months/
War on the Rocks - US Supplying Ukraine ATACMS Major Escalation; Oil Price Grows, West Gives Up on Rus Oil Price Cap (podcast - September 8, 2023):
https://warontherocks.com/2023/09/ukrainian-progress-a-breach-or-a-breakthrough-of-russian-lines/
ATACMS
ABC News - US likely to send long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine for the first time: Officials (September 9, 2023):
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-send-long-range-atacms-missiles-ukraine-time/story?id=103031722
Business Insider - Russia adapted to the game-changing HIMARS, but Ukraine's new Storm Shadow missiles could put the fear back into its commanders, warfare experts say (May 2023):
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-adapted-himars-ukraine-storm-shadow-missiles-bring-fear-back-2023-5
CNN - Russia’s jamming of US-provided rocket systems complicates Ukraine’s war effort (May 2023):
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/05/politics/russia-jamming-himars-rockets-ukraine/index.html
CSIS - Russia Isn’t Going to Run Out of Missiles (June 2023):
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russia-isnt-going-run-out-missiles
CSIS - US and Allied/Partner Government (funding):
https://www.csis.org/about/financial-information/donors/us-and-alliedpartner-government
CSIS - Corporations (funding):
https://www.csis.org/about/financial-information/donors/corporations
US Department of Defense - Fact Sheet on US Security Assistance to Ukraine (September 7, 2023):
https://media.defense.gov/2023/Sep/07/2003296114/-1/-1/0/UKRAINE-FACT-SHEET.PDF
CSIS - Missile Threat, ATACMS:
https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/atacms/
Alexander Mercouris - US Supplying Ukraine ATACMS Major Escalation; Oil Price Grows, West Gives Up on Rus Oil Price Cap (September 10, 2023):
https://youtu.be/9Gzm2s3HXlg?si=fpwQ6X_rNiveGN5d
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The New Atlas LIVE: Scott of Kalibrated & Ukraine's Attempts to Break Russian Lines
Scott of Kalibrated joins us to talk about Ukraine, Niger, US-Chinese tensions and more...
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New Atlas LIVE is a weekly stream for discussing current events, connecting with the New Atlas community, and more.
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