Dangerous Escalation: Russia Responds to NATO Strikes with New "Oreshnik" Ballistic Missile

Update on the conflict in Ukraine for November 24, 2024…

- Russia has retaliated against the use of Western-manufactured missiles inside Russian territory by firing an intermediate-range ballistic missile with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles at military industrial targets in eastern Ukraine;

- The missile had previously been prohibited under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with such missiles constituting the primary means of nuclear exchange between the Soviet Union and NATO in Europe during the Cold War;

- The stark warning comes at a time when Ukrainian forces are rapidly deteriorating and the prospect of a widespread collapse increases;

- US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has acknowledged that weapon deliveries aren’t Ukraine’s primary problem, but a lack of trained manpower, unrealistically urging Ukraine to mobilize more men;

- The US is attempting to continue exhausting Russia, raising the costs of the conflict as much as possible, including through the possibility of wider direct intervention before Ukrainian forces completely collapse;

- The prospect of Russia and NATO exchanging conventional long-range strikes continues to rise, thus also raising the risk of a nuclear exchange;

References:

BBC - Ukraine front could 'collapse' as Russia gains accelerate, experts warn (Nov. 20, 2024):
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn0dpdx420lo
Rachel Blevins - Putin Confirms Russia Fired New Hypersonic Ballistic Missile at Ukraine Targets (Nov. 22, 2024):
https://youtu.be/_6CbdUf-ssk?si=4Dt4Fjjh0q1_VRJ1
Learn From the Base (YouTube) - How the RS-28 Sarmat 'Satan II' Works: The World's Most Powerful ICBM Explained (Oct. 2024):
https://youtu.be/KWBQZYsZU80?si=hEAdU0cJ16A06KQ9
Reuters - Ukraine says Russia has launched over 8,000 missiles, 4,630 drones during war (Feb. 2024):
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russia-has-launched-over-8000-missiles-4630-drones-during-war-2024-02-22/
Defense UA -​Ukraine Won't be Running Short of ATACMS: Production Rates and Stock Estimates
https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/ukraine_wont_be_running_short_of_atacms_production_rates_and_stock_estimates-10384.html
Lockheed Martin - Fast Facts, Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) (2020):
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/content/dam/lockheed-martin/mfc/documents/business-area-landing/mfc-Fast-Facts-ATACMS.pdf
PBS News - ‘Kyiv Stands’: Sullivan says U.S. role in defending Ukraine defines Biden’s legacy (Nov. 18, 2024):
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/kyiv-stands-sullivan-says-u-s-role-in-defending-ukraine-defines-bidens-legacy
NYT - Ukraine Asks U.S. to Provide More Intelligence on Targets in Russia (May 2024):
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/17/us/politics/ukraine-intelligence-russia-targets.html
NBC News - Putin says Russia attacked Ukraine with a new missile and threatens Western countries arming Ukraine (Nov. 21, 2024):
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-launched-icbm-ukraine-war-putin-rcna181131
Defense One - What does Russia’s launch of an ‘experimental’ weapon at Ukraine mean for allies? (Nov. 21, 2024):
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2024/11/what-does-russias-launch-experimental-weapon-ukraine-mean-allies/401235/?oref=defense_one_breaking_nl&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Defense%20One%20Breaking%20News:%2011/21%20Russia%20missile&utm_term=newsletter_d1_alert
Defense News - How companies plan to ramp up production of Patriot missiles (Apr. 2024):
https://www.defensenews.com/land/2024/04/09/how-companies-plan-to-ramp-up-production-of-patriot-missiles/
US Department of Defense - Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine (Nov. 20, 2024):
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3972421/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
US DoD - $800 Million in Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine (Apr. 2022):
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2999113/
BBC - Anti-landmine groups criticise US for sending mines to Ukraine (Nov. 21, 2024):
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yrejnnl8jo

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