US-Israel Inch Toward Wider, More Dangerous War

US-Israeli Aggression Across the Middle East

- Following Iran’s missile barrage in the beginning of October, initial reports of “minimal damage” have given way to admissions of much more serious damage;

- Iran may have over 3,000 missiles and is reportedly expanding production even further;

- Israel possesses air defenses capable of intercepting Iranian missiles, but do not exist in the volumes necessary to prevent saturation by large-scale attacks and may not exist in large enough quantities to outlast waves of Iranian missile strikes;

- Iran lacks significant conventional offensive military power and instead relies on asymmetrical networks across the region to keep US-Israeli aggression at a distance;

- Iran’s extensive missile forces serve as a deterrence meant to raise the cost of US-Israeli military aggression across the region, but is not capable of “destroying” Israel;

- The US and Israel lack the conventional military capabilities required to “destroy” Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, or Iran as viable nation-states, but do possess significant stockpiles of nuclear weapons;

Resources:

Guardian - ‘We’re focused on maximum damage’: ground offensive into Gaza seems imminent (October 10, 2023):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/10/right-now-it-is-one-day-at-a-time-life-on-israels-frontline-with-gaza
CNN - Initial US intelligence suggests Iran was surprised by the Hamas attack on Israel (October 2023):
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/11/politics/us-intelligence-iran-hamas-doubt/index.html
Reuters - Hamas ditches Assad, backs Syrian revolt (2012):
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-palestinians-idUSTRE81N1CC20120224/
UN Security Council - Resolution 2334 (2016):
https://documents.un.org/doc/undoc/gen/n16/463/89/pdf/n1646389.pdf
Brookings Institution - Which Path to Persia? Options for a New American Strategy toward Iran (2009):
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/06_iran_strategy.pdf
The Telegraph - How Iran may have breached the world’s best air defences (October 2, 2024):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/10/02/how-iran-could-breach-israel-air-defences-missiles/
Al Jazeera - Saudi Arabia may run out of interceptor missiles in ‘months’ (January 2022):
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/9/saudi-arabia-may-run-out-of-interceptor-missiles-in-months-ft#:~:text=Saudi%20Arabia%20could%20run%20out,help%20to%20replenish%20the%20stock.
Jerusalem Post - US deploys anti-ballistic system to Israel, Iran says ‘no red lines’ (October 12, 2024):
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-824293
Defense News - THAAD, in first operational use, destroys midrange ballistic missile in Houthi attack (2022):
https://www.defensenews.com/land/2022/01/21/thaad-in-first-operational-use-destroys-midrange-ballistic-missile-in-houthi-attack/
WSJ - How Big Is Iran’s Missile Arsenal? (October 2024):
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-iran-hezbollah-conflict/card/how-big-is-iran-s-missile-arsenal--earTfWyIeIJgWnm5UHor
Reuters - Exclusive: Satellite photos show Iran expanding missile production (July 2024):
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/satellite-photos-show-iran-expanding-missile-production-sources-say-2024-07-08/
AP - Biden won’t support a strike on Iran nuclear sites as Israel weighs response to Iran missile attack (October 3, 2024):
https://apnews.com/article/biden-israel-iran-hezbollah-nuclear-sites-846c8779b2b95a3bebcf955c4e69cf6c
NYT - U.S. STRATEGY PLAN CALLS FOR INSURING NO RIVALS DEVELOP (1992):
https://www.nytimes.com/1992/03/08/world/us-strategy-plan-calls-for-insuring-no-rivals-develop.html

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