is a SoCal market crash coming? #orangecountyrealestate #markettrends

so FAR, so GOOD-Housing Wire's cautiously optimistic housing market outlook

Spring housing data: So far, the data for the spring housing market is mixed. Purchase application data is positive, but it's still below the levels seen in 2014. New listings data is growing year-over-year, but it's not spectacular. Active inventory is also up slightly. Overall, the data suggests that the market is stable, but not booming.

Mortgage rates: Mortgage rates are currently near 7%, which is still high compared to historical averages. This is putting a damper on demand, but it's not as bad as it could be. The fact that purchase application data is still positive is a sign that there is still some demand for homes, even at these higher rates.

Key factors to watch: The key factors to watch in the coming months are mortgage rates, the job market, and the overall economy. If mortgage rates continue to rise, it could further dampen demand. If the job market weakens or the economy goes into a recession, it could also lead to a decline in housing demand.

November 9th, 2022: Mohtashami identifies November 9th, 2022 as a key turning point in the housing market. On that day, the 10-year yield peaked at 4.25%, and mortgage rates subsequently rose to 7%. This caused a significant slowdown in the housing market.

Forward-looking data: Mohtashami emphasizes the importance of looking at forward-looking data, such as purchase application data, to get a sense of where the housing market is headed. He believes that the recent positive trends in this data are a sign that the market is on the right track.

Overall, the video provides a cautiously optimistic outlook for the spring housing market. While there are some challenges, such as high mortgage rates, there are also some positive signs, such as rising purchase application data. It will be important to watch the key factors mentioned above in the coming months to see how the market unfolds.

Here are some additional insights from the video:

Mohtashami is critical of some of the "trashy YouTube" content about the housing market. He believes that it is important to rely on reliable data and analysis, rather than speculation and hype.

He also discusses the "silver tsunami" of baby boomers who are expected to retire in the coming years. He believes that this will have a modest impact on the housing market, but it is not likely to cause a major crash.

Finally, he calls on the Federal Reserve to be patient and avoid raising interest rates too quickly. He believes that this could lead to a recession.

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References/Credits/Additional Links:

Video Link:
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Music:

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