2023-11-26

, welcome back. My account is flat. This week is similar to the broader markets. I think there's really not much going on in this week. And this is my option portfolio. So the biggest position by market cap is MSTR call options.

So I've rolled over to a April call structure instead of the December one.

So if the Bitcoin price keep going up in the next two weeks, I expect my December call structure is going to expire at break even. As for the market review, I think it's the same as last week. So we continue to have interest rate expectation keep getting lower.

And this is the chart of the expected dates of the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. So if we look at the previous data points, we can see that the expected dates keep getting delayed because of the persistent inflation.

However, over the last few months, we can see the expected dates keep getting less delays. And it's now pretty much narrow to Q4 by next year. Which means we can safely assume the first rate cuts is going to by the end of next year.

So this is why the market is now trading the dovish Federal Reserve Expectation, which means the technology stops keep going up and Bitcoin price as well. And this is the Bloomberg US Micro Surprise Index.

We have the worsening us macro data in the past several weeks, which is supporting the, uh, lowering expectation for the interest rate.

And this pretty much the market review, I expect the market to keep going up in December, basically. And this is a company review about NVIDIA,

Recently they have paused launching a new artificial intelligence chip that is going to comply with U. S. export rules to China,

And it seems that they are now getting less competitive compared to Huawei in China because of the U. S. rule. And there's the chart of NVIDIA. I think technically it's a good short opportunity here. But I still think we are going to have a broader market rally in December. So I think it could be a good opportunity to get short in January next year or late December this year.

And there's another side notes about Deere. So it's the agriculture and construction company in the U. S. So we can see that, uh, pretty negative comment about the U. S. for the economy. Price was down more than 5 percent after this comment. So I think there could be some short selling opportunity for the U. S. broader manufacturing economy going into next year. So this is just a comment about that. And that's it for this week.

Thank you for watching. See you next week. Bye.