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Hi, welcome back. So my account is up like 5 percent this week. The biggest profit is from MonTLT, which is the US treasury bond ETF. So this is my option portfolio. The biggest position are long TLT and long MSTR, which are long US Treasury Bond and long Bitcoin. And this my SPX delta exposure. So the largest delta is from MSTR as for my Delta exposure, in terms of industries, I'm basically long the broader market. Also, you can see my short cyclical stocks has been down a lot. That's why the exposure has been reduced. So this week we have a massive stock market rally because of the do fish comment from Federal Reserve Chairman. So he's basically saying, like, we are going to have rate cuts earlier in next year. And I think it's not a rational decision from them because their job is supposed to keep interest rate as high as possible for as long as possible. So I think that is probably some political agenda behind that decision. So you can see this, the approval rating for US president Joe Biden. So in December is hitting a very low rating. So I think that's probably related to why we have a very dolphish Federal Reserve at the moment. But anyway, I think we now have to stop market on steroid. So which is going to push everything higher for the rest of December and January in this year. So I'm very bullish on the markets at the moment. However, I don't think the hot money is going to keep chasing the magnificent seven stocks, which are the mega cap big technology stocks. So I think that is going to be a rotation from those magnificent seven stocks to the smaller cap, but higher growth, higher valuation stocks So just some coverage on China. . So we can see we have the record high MLF injection, which is some midterm lending facility. So basically it's injecting liquidity into the economy of China. So one of the, so one of the Chinese ADL stocks that I'm bullish on is NIO, N I O. So I'm targeting 15 per share for in the next six months, . So this is the update for this week. Thank you for watching. See you in the next week. Bye.

Hi, welcome back. sO I'm up around 7 percent this week. Most profit is from long Bitcoin and US treasury bond positions., so this is my option portfolio. The top position is still Bitcoin and followed by AXON and TLT. SO I'm now Delta neutral this, because I've added a lot of shop cyclicals stocks this week. Basically I expect the PMI to. Job further so I'm now basically long growth and tech stocks and shop financials and consumer discretionary stocks. SO just a brief check on the market. We now have the VIX volatility index at the lowest point since during the pandemic in 2020. And at the same time, we have the U S treasury bond going up quite a lot in the past several weeks. So it seems that the market is now betting on the soft landing scenario in the U S because of the cooling inflation. However, is the US economy really that strong at the moment? So this is the chart of the Citigroup economic surprise index. So in the past two weeks, economic indicators has been falling sharply and one example is the U S manufacturing PMI. So in the latest reading in November, we can see the reading is not really that good. It's still in the contraction territory And we do not really see any sign of bottoming at the moment. So overall, I think the market has been going quite ahead of itself. So there could be some correction going forward in the Q1 next year. So this, so this is an interesting chart that I would like to share with you. So we can see in the past two weeks, the big cap stocks has been falling. Meanwhile, the non profitable technology stocks has been going up. And I think it makes sense because throughout this year, we have seen a strong rally for the big tech stocks. So it's natural that we are going to have a correction going forward. And at the same time, we have the falling yield, which is supporting the high valuation of WorkBeach stocks, so that's why the non profitable technology stocks is going up recently. And I think it's likely to continue for a while as well. And just an interesting chart for NVIDIA as well. So we can see heavy selling from insider recently. So I think the stock is probably topping and due for a correction going forward. SO just some coverage for China. So I think in the past two quarters, we have been seeing stimulus measures from the Chinese government, trying to support the real estate sector but it seems that it's not really helping to solve the crisis going on in China so this week we have the Moody's credit agency cutting the China credit outlook to negative because of the lingering real estate crisis basically. So I think it's going to take longer time than expected for those hot money in China to going back to the Chinese ADR stocks So just a bit of coverage for the Japanese yen. So this week I've actually cut my long Japanese yen position because basically not patient enough to write this trade. And I'm also expecting the Japan economy is starting to slow down. So that's why the inflation narrative is no longer very strong at the moment. So. Not strong inflation means the yield is not going to go up, which is not supporting the bullish Japanese yen case. So that's why I've cut my long position. However, just one day after I've closed the position, we have seen a strong jump for the Japanese yen. It's basically due to some comment from some Japanese policymaker about that they are going to unwind their ultra negative interest rate policy, so there's a news about that the Japan GDP is now getting revised downward because of the slowdown of the economy. It's now not supportive for a stronger Japanese Yen. And this is also another news about the big jump for the Japanese Yen on Wednesday. So it seems like it's just some position unwind by some big hedge fund traders. And this is the volatility for the Japanese Yen. So we have seen a big spike in this week, BUt I think it's going to fall further, which means there is not going to have enough opportunity to make money from trading the Japanese yen. So just a small coverage going back to China. So we have seen easing China and US tension at the moment. So I think it's due to two reasons. So the first reason is the US is going to the election year in next year. And secondly, we have seen a very serious slowdown for the Chinese economy. So they are just going to improve relationship to try to solve their own problems So just some coverage for Bitcoin. So this week , in the option market, we have the record call volume. So the option market is now pricing a target of 50, 000 by January, which implies a around 15 percent upside in one month. And this is a piece of news about Tesla shorts. bAsically Tesla is seeing slowing demand and also they are losing market share to Chinese competitors. So this the market share chop of Tesla. So we can see it's now falling to below 50% And I think it's way less for the market share in China and is despite a heavy dropping for the price for their vehicles. This is the update for this week. Thank you for watching. See you next week. Bye.

Hi, welcome back. So I'm up around 7 percent this week. The biggest profit is from MonTLT. So basically the market is trading the falling interest rate expectation for the whole week. So this is my option positions. So my biggest position is still the long TLT trade. So it's expiring in March next year, which I think is a long enough time frame. So this is my SPX Delta positions. So this way I've added some slightly short positions to try to hedge my market risk. So for example, short Apple, General Motor and DE. And there is really not much macro news for the market this week. I think in December, we are basically in the quiet period for the year. So I just cover some of the company news that is related to my portfolio. So the first one is from a Chinese e commerce company, PDD. It has released earnings this week,, which was much better than expected. So the share was up more than 14 percent after the results. And it's basically posing some serious competition against Alibaba and JD. com, So this is the chart of PDD compared to other e commerce companies, so we can see Alibaba and JD were not doing pretty well recently. So I think I may just wait for some rally for JD and just cut this position. And this is the second stock, General Motors, so it has announced a massive dividend. Upgrade in this week, and the share was actually up 10 percent this week, but I think the fundamental of this company is still very weak. For example, if you look at the manufacturing PMI and it's actually going into the contraction territory and same for the ISM PMI . So it signals that the U S economy is slowing down right now. And so that's why the falling yield and the interest rate expectation as well. So there's some revenue number for general motor. So we can see the expected revenue growth for the next three years is actually lower than inflation. So it means no growth. And yeah, I think it's a kind of a short every rip type of company. So this is the valuation of General Motors. So we can see the PE ratio is very low, which is also signaling that the weak balance sheets and the growth outlook for this company. So this is a chart of General Motors. So it's a very overbought situation in terms of technical analysis. So that's why I would like to add some short position on this company. And finally, just some coverage for Apple. So recently it's have a news about Apple that the sales for iPhone in China is not really that good. And it's also facing some serious competition from Huawei and Xiaomi. So I think it may be a good short selling candidate to hedge against some market risk. There's also another coverage about that. Um, we have a lot of hot money in the market right now, but it's actually just concentrated in the so called Magnificent 7 stocks, which is including Apple. So I just think it's a good risk management to back against Apple as a proxy to hedge against this concentrated risk. So that's the update for this week. Thank you for watching. See you in the next week. Bye.

, welcome back. My account is flat. This week is similar to the broader markets. I think there's really not much going on in this week. And this is my option portfolio. So the biggest position by market cap is MSTR call options. So I've rolled over to a April call structure instead of the December one. So if the Bitcoin price keep going up in the next two weeks, I expect my December call structure is going to expire at break even. As for the market review, I think it's the same as last week. So we continue to have interest rate expectation keep getting lower. And this is the chart of the expected dates of the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. So if we look at the previous data points, we can see that the expected dates keep getting delayed because of the persistent inflation. However, over the last few months, we can see the expected dates keep getting less delays. And it's now pretty much narrow to Q4 by next year. Which means we can safely assume the first rate cuts is going to by the end of next year. So this is why the market is now trading the dovish Federal Reserve Expectation, which means the technology stops keep going up and Bitcoin price as well. And this is the Bloomberg US Micro Surprise Index. We have the worsening us macro data in the past several weeks, which is supporting the, uh, lowering expectation for the interest rate. And this pretty much the market review, I expect the market to keep going up in December, basically. And this is a company review about NVIDIA, Recently they have paused launching a new artificial intelligence chip that is going to comply with U. S. export rules to China, And it seems that they are now getting less competitive compared to Huawei in China because of the U. S. rule. And there's the chart of NVIDIA. I think technically it's a good short opportunity here. But I still think we are going to have a broader market rally in December. So I think it could be a good opportunity to get short in January next year or late December this year. And there's another side notes about Deere. So it's the agriculture and construction company in the U. S. So we can see that, uh, pretty negative comment about the U. S. for the economy. Price was down more than 5 percent after this comment. So I think there could be some short selling opportunity for the U. S. broader manufacturing economy going into next year. So this is just a comment about that. And that's it for this week. Thank you for watching. See you next week. Bye.

Hey, welcome back. So this week is the option expiry week for November. So I'm down a little bit. My biggest winning positions are from long Royal Caribbean, Cruise line, ASML and Shopify. anD my biggest losers are from short Tesla and short IWM, which is the Russel 2000 small to mid cap ETF. I think I've put too much hedging positions and ended up losing money on those short positions which are really unnecessary. And this is my actual option positions, so my biggest positions by market value are now Shopify, RCL and AXON. And this is my risk in terms of industries. So I'm basically long the broader markets like consumer discretionary industrial technology and energy stocks. Basically, I'm just long the market for the December. And this is my SPX index Delta with basically my longest Delta positions are from MSTR, which is the long Bitcoin trade, Shopify and AXON. , so this is the summary of my current portfolio. As for the market, so the biggest event in this week is obviously the CPI results. So we have to miss across the board, and the market reacted very strongly on this result. Specifically we have the Russell 2000 index rising 5. 4 percent in this week, which is a very big movement and I was also caught by surprise because I was shorting this position. And this is the S& P 500 index, so we can see in the last three weeks, it already erased all the loss from the last three months, which is very significant price action. And this is the dollar index. Yes. Basically responding to the falling yield because of the falling inflation, because of the missing result of the CPI. And besides good micro data from the US, we also have the recovering Chinese sentiment. So we can see that in terms of both the industrial outputs and the retail sales. They are all beating the expectations, which is very good. And this also the latest oil demand outlook from this week. Basically, we can see that the huge demand is driven by China recently, Also some little coverage from e commerce company in China. So which is JD. com I have a long position on this one. So we can see that JD. com released earning results this week. Basically, they are better than the expectation. And as a result, the stock rose 9 percent on that days of the earning results. And this is a piece of news from SCMP. So we can see that basically all metrics like transaction volume, order volume, or user engagement, they are reaching all time highs, and this is a chart of JD. com. We can see that it's basically bottoming. So I think in terms of technical analysis, this is a very good set up to the upside. So in summary, I think we pretty much have a Christmas rally in the coming December because we have the CPI miss, which is signaling the end of the rate high cycle. Also we have the earning results for November pretty much passed already. So we have the quiet period in December, which means low uncertainty, which means lower risk for the market. And also we have the China recovery story coming, at least for the sentiments, And finally, we have the improving U. S. China relation, at least for the short term, because we have the Chinese leaders visiting San Francisco at the moment, and also we have some optimistic comment for the Taiwan situation. So that's why I'm pretty much long the December. So this is the summary of this week. Thank you for watching. See you in the next week. Bye.

Hey, welcome back. Pretty much flat this week. My biggest profit is from Royal Caribbean, Cruiseline. So it's up around 1000 USD and my biggest loss is from short Apple. So it's down around 1,300 USD. I think it's due to the general market going up. Specifically we have the Nasdaq 100 index going up 2% on Friday. And this is my current portfolio. So my biggest position by (market value) is a ASML let's take a look at the structure. So it's a neutral calendar call spread and the strike is around $ 650. The price is already going over the strike price. So currently, if I still maintain this position, I'm going to collect around 5 percent of credits by Friday. And if it goes up further, I may actually lose a bit of money on this one. So I think I may just let it sit around for a few days more to try to collect additional of 200 to 300 US dollar. So this the chart of ASML I've set up this trade back when it was around $580 per share. Yeah, so it's going up much quicker than I expected. And this a MicroStrategy stock option structure on my portfolio. So on Wednesday, I've actually opened a MSTR call spread to try to collect some credits by the coming Friday. However, one day later, we have the Bitcoin price breaking out strongly on the ETH, ETF news. So I've just decided to switch to a directional bet instead of a credit collection bet. So I just now run a December call option with the strike at around 530. The share price of MicroStrategy is at around 515 per share. My target is 700 by December, if that happens, my risk to reward ratio is 6 to 1 in one month. So this is MicroStrategy as we can see we have a very strong breakout on Thursday. So I think the momentum is likely to sustain given the strong news flows coming. And there's some interesting statistics about micro strategy. So we have the short interest percentage of float at around 25%. So it's quite a lot. So if it goes up further, I expect there will be a short squeeze. And this can push the share price to around 700 in my opinion, in a month. So that's the summary of the Microstrategy trade. So in this week, I don't see any interesting news about the global economy. I think it's the same old stuff. So I just skip the market review. And finally, just one small notes about the geopolitical risk premium. Basically means the oil price and gold price. So it's been coming down in the last two weeks. so it seems the market do not really care about the conflicts in the Middle East anymore. But I think it is still a developing story. So I think it's a good opportunity to add some oil stock in the coming two weeks. So that's the end for this week. Thank you for watching. See you in the next week. Bye.

Hey, welcome back. So I guess everyone is doing pretty well this week. So same for me. So I'm up around 9 percent in this week. My best positions are long Shopify and Palantir. So both company released very good earning results. I think the stocks are up like 20 percent in this week for both of them. So my worst positions of this week are short Apple, short KBH and KLE, so basically they are up because of the boarder market rally. As for my position changes, I've cut my long META and MSTR positions. So for the meta stock, I simply think there are way more opportunities elsewhere with the lower market cap stocks. So I just cut meta two, three up some margin for other positions. As for risk off hedges like gold and Bitcoin, I think that could be less fear in the market going forward. So I just cut my MSTR position and. , just to free up margins for other opportunities. So this is my actual option positions. So my top positions right now by market cap uh, Palantir and Shopify and ASML as well. And I'm very likely to just take some profits from my PLTR positions and Shopify because they have a very strong spike of their price action after they are very good earning results. As for my overall portfolio risk by industries, I'm basically long the markets for a lot of industries like consumer discretionary, industrial technology, something like that. And I'm still short financial stocks, basically expecting some recession scenario going forward in the next year. And that's the end for my portfolio review as for the market review, we have a very strong broader market rally in this week. But in terms of economic development, I don't think we have much new development going on. , so I will just go for some coverage for the macro. So the first is the Japanese yen situation. So this week, we have an update from the BOJ on the new curve control policy. Basically they are saying that instead of having a fixed 1 percent threshold for their Japanese bond yield, they are going to allow a flexible movement around the 1 percent level. So what it means is that there is no yield curve control anymore. So it's just the market force taking over the Japanese bond markets. Because even if the yield rise to about, let's say 1. 2%, they are just going to say, oh, they are going to allow it float flexibly around the 1. 2 percent level, something like that. So what it means is that we should expect more gradual increase in the Japanese bond yield. And this is going to have an effect on the markets because Japan is the world largest net creditor, meaning they have a lot of assets in foreign countries. So if we see an increase in the Japanese bond yield, those assets are going to be sold in those foreign markets and go back to Japan. So what it means that we are likely to see a higher risk for a rising Japanese yen because of those unwind of carry trades positions. . So in summary, I think the current monetary policy in Japan is bullish for the Japanese yen. But what about the fiscal policy in Japan government? So this week we have seen that the Japan Prime Minister is going to release a government stimulus package. Basically, they are going to have a one off 40, 000 yen tax cuts, which is of around 300 US dollar. , so personally, I don't think that it's going to do anything to the economy, either good or bad. And I think it's more like a desperate attempt for the PM to get more votes in the next election because he now has a very low negative rating from the public. Yeah, so that's pretty much the summary for the Japan coverage. I think in the long term, we should still see more bearish Japanese yen because of their structural problems. But in the short term, like three to six months, I think the probability is higher for a stronger Japanese yen Because currently the yield curve control policy is more important in affecting the FX market compared to the Kishida stimulus package. So this is the chart of the government bond yield market. So we can see the yield just keep rising because of the high inflation in Japan. And since we now see a lower likelihood for the BOJ to defend the bond market, we should see a higher yield and a stronger Japanese yen going forward. So I think in terms of technical analysis, we are now at the bottom and I think we could see the Japanese yen getting stronger at around 140 level. But if we take a look at the dollar yen chart, we should also consider the U S macro. So in terms of the U S macro, I do think we could see a falling U S dollar going forward. So I think in this scenario, if we see both the JPY strengthening and the U S dollar weakening, we could see 130 in six months. So how I'm going to play this scenario. So I just launched the FXY which is Japanese ETF call option. So my target is around 70 to 72 by March next year. And this is my current structure in my portfolio. So I just have this for fun. I'm not going to put a lot of risk on this. So just around 1, 000 US dollar on this position. So it's just a out of the money call option on the FXY. And this is the current structure on the left side. So we have the Canada call spread with a out of the money strike price. So I basically expect it to expire still below 65 by January. But after that, we could see keep rising up to our 72 level. And if it is going according to my expectation, we could see around 15 times of risk to reward ratio on this. So that's enough for the Japanese yen coverage so going back to the U S we have the strongest stock market performance since one year ago. But interestingly, we have seen worsening US macro data in this week. So basically stuff like GDP or PMI data, they are missing the expectation globally. And on Friday, we also have a worse than expected non farm payroll number, which is basically signaling recession going forward. And these, the job numbers previously, they are all getting revised every month, basically. So the biggest driver in this week, in my opinion, is the falling of the US bond yield. So interestingly, since we have the resonant macro data with the falling bond yield, it's actually like the market is expecting quantitative easing going forward, which is not going to just happen so soon. And this, the S& P 500 chart obviously is very strong in this week. So in summary, I think it's like the market is very strong because of the expectation for easing monetary policy. But this is not going to just happen so soon. So I think currently the falling bond yield is supporting the U. S. stock market, but at some point, the falling yield could also mean the recession is coming, so we have to be cautious. So I just think we kind of have a honeymoon period for the rest of this year. And it's very easy for everyone to just make money in this stock markets by buying anything, but we should also prepare for the coming recession in next year. So basically my strategy is just don't get too bullish on the markets and keep taking profits on my long positions and gradually add more short positions going forward. And by the way, two weeks ago, I've talked about that I wanted to short the Royal Bank of Canada for the Canadian recession in the next year. So I just kind of have a limit order and forget about it. And this week, the order got filled nicely. . So the RY put option is going to expire in April next year. So the strike is 80 and I think the price is right now around 83 and my target is around 70 by April next year. So this is a new position to short the Canada recession. So that's the update for this week. Thanks for watching. See you next week. Bye.

Hey, welcome back. My portfolio is flat this week, despite a very strong performance from Bitcoin. So I've lost the most from IBM, Shopify and Enphase Energy. So I've cut GDX gold miner ETF. Despite a fairly strong gold price in this week, I think the miner has been lagging behind. So I've just took profit from this position. And I've also cut a bunch of short positions like IBM Ford Motor and CCL but for Ford Motor, I've cut this position too early. Basically, one day after I cut this position, it had a big drop following the poor earning results. And I've cut my long position on Lockheed Martin as well, just on the portfolio level risk management. I don't like being too long the markets at the moment. And finally, I've added a long PLTR, AXON / RCL. And finally, short Tesla. So overall my portfolio is long delta at the moment, but the positive Delta is really coming from Bitcoin and bond position. And I'm also long SPX Delta as well. And the biggest risks from Bitcoin and Meta. And we have got a bit of sell off after the meta earning results, but I'm still bullish in AI and cloud in general. And this is my actual option position. So the biggest risk by market value is still Bitcoin. And I have a fairly high excess liquidity as well. So enough for like three to four new positions, but the, but the excess liquidity also means that I'm not really confident in predicting the market right now. So this is the chart of the broader market, so obviously a lot of fear right now. But I don't think we should add more shorts at the moment. I think there's a risk that we could see some rebounds. And this is why I'm having a bit of a cash reserve to try to add some more long positions going forward. So that's for the portfolio review. As for the market review, I think there is a bit of mixed signal in the market right now. But I think ultimately I do see more upside risk for the market for the rest of this year. So let's start with some economic data. So this week we have a bunch of positive surprise for the U. S. macro data, for example, PMI. So we have, so we have both the U. S. manufacturing and service PMI better than expectation. So we have the chart of the PMIs that are basically going up since the start of this year. And also we have a positive GDP surprise. So it's basically a 4. 9 percent of rise. It's better than the expectation of 4. 5%. However, despite all of the data, the market is still selling off this week. I think it's due to the stronger economic performance means higher inflation means high interest rate. So the market is crashing and is the fixed volatility index of the S& P 500. And it's also rising, meaning there is a bit of fear building up in the markets. And this gold, I think it's not just related to the market crash. It's also related to the Middle East conflict. And this KRE, Regional Banking ETF it's not really crashing in this week, but I think the risk is due to the downside. And finally, it's the US Treasury bond ETF. I think technically it looks like it's bottoming, so there is less risk to the downside and more risk to the upside, meaning falling yield. And this is the US dollar index. We have also seen that it seems like it's not really that strong anymore. So there is a risk that the dollar may go to the downside. And this, the dollar Yen chart, we can see that the Japanese Yen fail to fall below 150. So I think the intervention is kind of working right now. So in summary, I feel that we are at a inflection point in the markets right now. In the past few months, we have been trading a theme of higher inflation, higher yield, stronger U. S. dollar, and weaker stock markets. But but I think for the rest of this year, we may actually see the opposite happening. Meaning that we could see a weaker yield, weaker U. S. dollar, and higher stock markets. And especially right now, we are seeing fear in the equity markets. So if the market crash rapidly, like in the next months, we could see some more expectation for easing monetary policy. So this is why I really think the risk is to the upside for big technology stocks, defense stocks, and some risk off hedges(Bond/Gold/BTC), but it is just my opinion and I could be wrong so in case we have the broader market keeps selling off, I want to have a stock that is going to fall much further than the broader market. So Tesla, for example, so that's the summary of my market view. So I will just go for some random stuff right now and starting with Tesla. So I basically see Tesla as a hedge for a broader market crash. I don't really expect it to happen. I would love to see the market just go up for the rest of this year and just lose off my money on Tesla and make much more money for my other long positions. But in case of a market sell off, my target is 100 for Tesla. And this is the structure of my portfolio. So I just shot a strike 150 put option. So the cost is 4.44 and the target is $50. So it's 150 minus 100. So it's 50. So it's a 10 x risk to reward. And , I've cut my CCL position. So CCL is the worst cruise line operator in my opinion because of a very high debt level. But I think overall the cruise line travelers are doing pretty well. Because firstly, the pandemic is no longer a concern for them. And secondly, I think cruise line travelers are really the retiree, and they are not really affected by this recession, so they still have a lot of money to spend on the cruise line traveling. So that's why I've added a long position on RCL, so Royal Caribbean Corporation. It has a fairly low debt level compared to other competitors and it has the strongest revenue growth right now. And this week we have also seen a very strong earning reports from them. So they are basically lifting their full year profit forecast. Have a very strong booking for the coming seasons. So this, the chart of RCL, it's been going down in the past three months. So I think it's a good entry here to buy the dip. And I'm basically expecting a new high for this stock, which is around 115. So if that happened, the risk to reward is three x for this stock. So my structure right now is a diagonal call spread with a cost of around 14. So my target is 30 on this one. And just want to talk about ExxonMobil as well. I think the earning result is pretty good this week, but the stock actually sell off afterwards. But I think it's just some profit taking and some concern about the coming recession. But I think the supply risk for the oil market is far more important than the demand risk in this scenario. So I'm still very bullish on XOM. I think if this stock falls to around 100 level, it would be a good opportunity to buy the dip. So just some coverage for the U. S. commercial banking deposits in the U. S. It's basically falling. And currently I'm still keeping my MSTR long position because I do see a few of bull cases for Bitcoin. So first is the ETF. . And secondly, the strong China stimulus policies and capital fight situation. And we also have the crash happening in the stock market right now. And finally, we are still waiting for the regional banking crashes, which is very bullish for Bitcoin if that, if that happens. And just want to expand a bit on China. So we have a very poor sentiment of the Chinese stock markets in the past few months. However, we are actually seeing very strong stimulus policies coming out of China. So this week we have the China government raising the deficit ratio from 3% to 3.5%. , and we are also seeing very poor youth unemployment level, which I think is going to cause Chinese government to do more policy. So I think there's going to be a bunch of hot money coming off China going forward. And that hot money has to go somewhere. So I'm checking out JD. com right now, the e commerce company in China. So the fundamental analysis of this company is actually not very well, the revenue growth is just barely above inflation level. , and we have a very poor valuation as well. , so the PE ratio is just around eight to nine. And the stock has been doing very poorly this year, and it's partly hurt by the price war with PDD, and also a general very weak consumer spending in China. And this is a chart of a competitor, PDD, it's actually doing pretty well in this year to my surprise. And this Alibaba is not doing pretty well. I think it's due to the very bad overall Chinese stock market sentiments. So I'm just thinking about what if the fundamental of JD is improving, I think it could just hit 40 in three to six months. So if JD can hit 40 by March in next year, the risk to reward is going to be 6 to 8 times, which is very good. So in this week we have JD. com starting a sales campaign to prepare for the double 11 in November. So it seems that the initial results is doing pretty well so far. And from this news, we can see that the mainland China retail sales is growing by 5. 5 percent in September compared to 4. 6 percent in August. So it's actually improving for the Chinese consumers. So I think a lot of the very bad sentiment is surrounding on the real estate markets, but not for the Chinese consumer. So I'm thinking about this diagonal call spread structure. So long March 30 call and short December 30 call with a 2 to 1 ratio. , so I'm very likely to put on this trade in next week. So that's the update for this week. Thank you for watching. See you in the next week. Bye.

Hey, welcome back. My portfolio is flat this week, despite a very strong performance from Bitcoin. So I've lost the most from IBM, Shopify and Enphase Energy. So I've cut GDX gold miner ETF. Despite a fairly strong gold price in this week, I think the miner has been lagging behind. So I've just took profit from this position. And I've also cut a bunch of short positions like IBM Ford Motor and CCL but for Ford Motor, I've cut this position too early. Basically, one day after I cut this position, it had a big drop following the poor earning results. And I've cut my long position on Lockheed Martin as well, just on the portfolio level risk management. I don't like being too long the markets at the moment. And finally, I've added a long PLTR, AXON / RCL. And finally, short Tesla. So overall my portfolio is long delta at the moment, but the positive Delta is really coming from Bitcoin and bond position. And I'm also long SPX Delta as well. And the biggest risks from Bitcoin and Meta. And we have got a bit of sell off after the meta earning results, but I'm still bullish in AI and cloud in general. And this is my actual option position. So the biggest risk by market value is still Bitcoin. And I have a fairly high excess liquidity as well. So enough for like three to four new positions, but the, but the excess liquidity also means that I'm not really confident in predicting the market right now. So this is the chart of the broader market, so obviously a lot of fear right now. But I don't think we should add more shorts at the moment. I think there's a risk that we could see some rebounds. And this is why I'm having a bit of a cash reserve to try to add some more long positions going forward. So that's for the portfolio review. As for the market review, I think there is a bit of mixed signal in the market right now. But I think ultimately I do see more upside risk for the market for the rest of this year. So let's start with some economic data. So this week we have a bunch of positive surprise for the U. S. macro data, for example, PMI. So we have, so we have both the U. S. manufacturing and service PMI better than expectation. So we have the chart of the PMIs that are basically going up since the start of this year. And also we have a positive GDP surprise. So it's basically a 4. 9 percent of rise. It's better than the expectation of 4. 5%. However, despite all of the data, the market is still selling off this week. I think it's due to the stronger economic performance means higher inflation means high interest rate. So the market is crashing and is the fixed volatility index of the S& P 500. And it's also rising, meaning there is a bit of fear building up in the markets. And this gold, I think it's not just related to the market crash. It's also related to the Middle East conflict. And this KRE, Regional Banking ETF it's not really crashing in this week, but I think the risk is due to the downside. And finally, it's the US Treasury bond ETF. I think technically it looks like it's bottoming, so there is less risk to the downside and more risk to the upside, meaning falling yield. And this is the US dollar index. We have also seen that it seems like it's not really that strong anymore. So there is a risk that the dollar may go to the downside. And this, the dollar Yen chart, we can see that the Japanese Yen fail to fall below 150. So I think the intervention is kind of working right now. So in summary, I feel that we are at a inflection point in the markets right now. In the past few months, we have been trading a theme of higher inflation, higher yield, stronger U. S. dollar, and weaker stock markets. But but I think for the rest of this year, we may actually see the opposite happening. Meaning that we could see a weaker yield, weaker U. S. dollar, and higher stock markets. And especially right now, we are seeing fear in the equity markets. So if the market crash rapidly, like in the next months, we could see some more expectation for easing monetary policy. So this is why I really think the risk is to the upside for big technology stocks, defense stocks, and some risk off hedges(Bond/Gold/BTC), but it is just my opinion and I could be wrong so in case we have the broader market keeps selling off, I want to have a stock that is going to fall much further than the broader market. So Tesla, for example, so that's the summary of my market view. So I will just go for some random stuff right now and starting with Tesla. So I basically see Tesla as a hedge for a broader market crash. I don't really expect it to happen. I would love to see the market just go up for the rest of this year and just lose off my money on Tesla and make much more money for my other long positions. But in case of a market sell off, my target is 100 for Tesla. And this is the structure of my portfolio. So I just shot a strike 150 put

[00:00:00] Hey, welcome back. So I'm making around 5, 000 USD this week. The biggest profit is from a short KRE position. So we have the US treasury yield hitting a new high in this week. That's why the regional banking ETF start to crash in this week And overall I think the profit is from a good mix of positions, so not just the K R E position. And I have a big loss on the long endphase energy position, so I'm down around 2000 U S D on this position. So this the ENPH chart, endphase energy, basically solar edge release earning this week, which is very bad. So in general, the solar energy stocks have a very heavy sell off in this week. So Enphase Enphase energy is down almost 20 percent in this week as for my current portfolio, I'm still long bond, gold and Bitcoin. Uranium CCJ as for my technology portfolio, since I've cut my loss on PayPal, and also I've added a short on Apple position. So my technology portfolio is net [00:01:00] short at the moment. And finally, I'm still short financials and consumer discretionary stocks. Overall, I'm now running a slightly bearish bias. So this my risk assessment in terms of SPX delta. So my SPX index delta right now is around 5.6 negatively. So it's around short 24,000 u s d of the market. So it's bearish as well. So this my stock option portfolio, so my largest position in terms of market value is now short KRE the regional banking ETF, which I'm likely to take some profit in next week. And currently I have a bit of excess liquidity, which allows me to add one to two more new positions in next week. , as for my 100, 000 cash portfolio, last week I've said that I would like me to buy some oil stock. So XOM, but I've decided to just keep it like cash and not buy anything, because I think that we may likely to see some more sell off in the markets, which may actually drop down the energy stocks as well. , so [00:02:00] this KRE the best position in this week. I think the crash will likely to continue in the next one to two weeks, , but I think I may still take some profits in the next week so that I can allocate capital to more fresh trade ideas. So that's the review for my portfolio. As for the market review, as you may know, we have a very strong US yield right now. So I would like to have a review for the bond markets. And also I would like to have some news about the U. S. China trade war situation. And finally, just some idea for the Canadian real estate bubble. , so first is the U. S. yield. So we can see it continue to creep higher in this week. So currently I'm still long TLTs, which means I'm expecting the yield to go down. Mainly for two reasons. So the first one is if we are going into a recession. So of course yield is going to go down and stock market going down as well. And the second case is simply that we have a very high interest rate. So if the Fed decided we want to stop tightening, then the yield market could go down because [00:03:00] of the lower interest rate expectation. So we have the yield down and market still going up scenario. But obviously I'm wrong at this moment. So why is the yield keep going up? I think there could be two reasons. So the first one is less likely is that the inflation just keep getting higher and the Federal Reserve is expected to raise more interest rate. I think it's not likely because we are already seeing some weakness in the stock markets . And I think the second reason is more likely is that simply China and Japan is dumping the U. S. Treasury bond to support their very weak currencies. So there's some news about that Japan and China has been trying to reduce their U. S. Treasury holdings as their currency become very weak at the moment. So let's start with a review on Japan. So we have the Japanese government bond 10 year yield keep getting higher because, because of the inflation situation in Japan. , and this is very bad for business and the government because high interest rate means [00:04:00] more interest payment for business for their debts and also government debts as well. So basically the Japanese government is using the taxpayer money to pay back the interest expense of the debts right now. , and to support the bond markets from crashing in Japan. , so the bank of Japan is currently buying Japanese government bond to try to slow down the increase in the yield. , and this effectively means printing more money because it's basically an accounting trick to increase the balance sheets of Bank of Japan. But despite of this happening, we do not really see the Japanese yen falling below 150 in throughout the October. So why is this happening? So this is the dollar yen chart. So we can see that the Japanese yen did not really fall through 150 in the last few weeks. So it seems like the Ministry of Finance in Japan is intervening the FX markets to try to support the yen. But we do not really see some news about the Japanese government is [00:05:00] now dumping the U. S. Treasury bonds. So I think it's likely that they are just selling their current USD reserve at the moment. But for the situation in China is way worse than Japan at the moment. So this week we have some news about China is actually dumping everything. So not just bond markets, they are dumping US equities as well. And this is the chart of the monthly change in terms of US treasury holdings. So it's going down. And this is the total balance of the US treasury holdings. And this is the total flow of U. S. securities hold by the Chinese. So you can see that China is dumping treasuries, bonds, and stocks. And this is the chart of the U. S. dollar and Chinese yuan. We can see that since August, the Chinese government has been supporting their currency by selling off everything in the U. S. And this is the long term chart for the Chinese yuan and U. S. dollar. We can see that it's getting very serious right now. So this is why the Chinese equity market [00:06:00] has starting to sell off in this week. So we have the China large cap ETF or FXI starting to sell off in this week and Same for Hong Kong as well. We have the Hang Seng index starting to sell off. So that's the coverage for the Chinese FX situation. I currently don't have any trade idea on that situation right now. I think a lot of the Chinese stocks that I'm already bearish have already been done a lot. So I'm not likely to add more shots at current points. Just some news about the U S and China trade war in this week. And so we have the U S government banning. So we have the U. S. government banning additional AI high end chips to ship to China. And that's why NVIDIA, AMD, and Intel are falling in this week. So this is the chart of the AI CPU chip stocks. We can see that they are all falling in this week. But personally, I think that if you look at the semiconductor stocks compared to other industry in this week, I don't think the sell off is [00:07:00] very strong here. So there is still a bit of optimism about the AI revolution. So it may not be a very good idea to short stocks right now, given the high AI demand. And also we have some good news coming from TSM in this week, basically, they are saying that the slowdown has sort of been stabilized recently, and they are seeing some sign of recovery in next year. And this is the chart of TSM and ASML, they are also very weak in this week, but I don't think it's really that strong of a sell off. So I think potentially there is some bottom for the overall semiconductor industry in this year and next year. , so going back to the trade war news. So we have. China retaliating as well. So it's basically stopping some export for chips for electric vehicles. So it's specifically hurting the electric vehicle industry, including Tesla. And speaking of Tesla, it's down quite a lot in this week because [00:08:00] of a very poor earning results. They basically reduced the price of their vehicle, but the volume is still Less than the expectation. Yeah, so I'm now seeing Tesla continuing to have a sell off. Potentially the target price is 150 by next year, but I think the risk reward is no longer very good here if we want to initiate a short position. So I'm just going to watch it on the sideline. And there's some comment from Elon Musk about Tesla is basically blaming the overall macroeconomics situation. However, I'm skeptical that it's only about the macroeconomic situation. , so we can see that in last week, the Chinese electric vehicle giants BYD say they are actually doubling their profits because of a strong sales and effective cost control. . So I think it's a signal that Tesla may actually be losing to competition in China. And this is the chart of BYD. So despite the very weak Chinese equity markets, we don't really see a sell off for the [00:09:00] BYD company. So finally, just some coverage for the Canadian real estate bubble. So if you have been following the global economy news for quite a while, , you may be aware of that Canada currently have the most serious real estate bubble among all of the developed countries. So if we look at the GDP composition of Canada, the real estate industry is actually consists of the highest composition of the Canada economy. And how about the second item, the manufacturing sector? So this is the PMI for Canada. We can see that basically the manufacturing sector is having a recession at the moment in Canada. And also the labor market is very weak. . In the, so we have a increasing unemployment rates in the country. So basically I think Canada is heading to a serious recession in next year. So short Royal Bank of Canada, the largest bank in Canada, basically. And by the way, for the real estate [00:10:00] bubble situation, just , watch some YouTube videos about it. I think it's well covered on the internet. So anyway, if we look at the income statement, we can see that there is an increase in the interest income in the last two years. Of course, by the very high interest rate in Canada and globally as well. However, despite the increase in the net interest income, we do not really see an increase in the net income and this caused by the very high loan interest expense and also the provision for the credit loss. So the provision for the credit loss is basically the loss we serve for the default on those mortgage in the real estate markets. And there's some exposure for the Royal Bank of Canada. So we can see that of course it has a very high exposure for Canada loans and also the residential real estate markets and also in Ontario, basically Toronto. So this is the chart of the Royal Bank of Canada. I think we could see 60 by April next year, basically. However, we [00:11:00] are seeing a very strong sell off in this week already. So I think it's a bit late to open a short position in next week. I'm more likely to open a short position if we see some rebounds for the stocks in the next two to three weeks, and if there is no rebounds, I just miss this opportunity and go do something else So how much money can we make? So let's go for a study here. So right now we have to put option April next year of strike 70. The price of this option is around 2. 05. So if we just buy one contract of the put option, we can have a max loss of around 200 US dollar. And if the stock really hit 60 by April next year, we can see a profit of around 1000 USD. And the risk reward of this trade is 4 to 1. Additionally, we can also look at the short options to try to increase the risk to reward ratio of this trade. So let's take a look at the April strike 60 put option. So currently the price is [00:12:00] around 0. 65. So it's a credit of around 65 US dollar. But if the stock keeps going down, the credit is going to increase. So suppose the stock keeps going down and we are able to short the strike 60 put option at around 1. 05 per contract. So now the total structure cost is around 100 because it's 200 minus 100. So the max loss has now become 100 U. S. dollar and the max profit is still 1, 000 U. S. dollar. So the risk reward is now 9 to 1, and it's pretty good actually, but since we have a heavy sell off in this week, I would like to just wait and see if we have another opportunity to like put on this short position. So I may open this trade if we see some rally in the next two to three weeks. So this is an example for a option structure. And this is the end for this week. Thank you for watching. See you in the next week. Bye.