Turkey says yes to Sweden NATO dream

Time Running out Ukraine 11th July 2023Show more

Battle Update
Hungry - the last veto standing. Although they have indicated that they will not stop the joining of any other nations, so now that Turkey has dropped their veto - Sweden would appear to be in.

Zelensky/NATO - majority of members full support of Ukraine
Need to state Ukraine is de facto member at Vilnius Summit in Lithuania.

Biden has stated this week that this will not happen.

Many are aware that by doing so, NATO would then be compelled to join the conflict with boots on the ground. Politically this could be suicide for many western governments who are already facing internal reluctance to continue supporting Ukraine with their tax dollars. Putting their sons in the firing line is not likely to be well received.

The output of this is that Zelensky may well be very deflated come 13th July.

Sweden
BBC reporting - Turkey says yes to Swedish membership in NATO.
Erdogan met with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson.

NATO General Secretary - Jens Stoltenberg - photographed shaking hands with both men said - He said the Turkish leader would forward Sweden's bid to the parliament in Ankara and "ensure ratification".

Erdogan met with Biden earlier in the week and Biden has commented that he hopes to see swift ratification of the decision.

Erdogan said….
“First come and open the way for Turkey in the EU; after that we’ll open the way for Sweden just like we did for Finland,” Erdogan told a press conference in Istanbul before leaving for NATO’s summit in Lithuania on Monday. He criticized “countries keeping Turkey waiting at the EU’s door for almost 50 years.”

Now the big question is WHY NOW… as Turkey has strongly opposed this previously due to claims that Sweden are housing Kurdish dissidents.

There are a lot of theories and I would like to cover some of them off.

F-16s apparently US has agreed to supply and supports Turkish ascension to EU…

Speaking at a press briefing, State Department Spokesman Matthew Miller said Washington has publicly "supported the provision of F-16s to Türkiye for some time."
"We've made that clear publicly that we support it but that there are a number of members of Congress, who as much as we don't believe the issue should be linked with NATO accession, there are members of Congress who believe that it is. And so we always make that clear, privately and publicly," said Miller.
He noted Sweden took steps to address Türkiye's concerns, including changing its Constitution and arresting terrorism suspects, and added that the U.S. believes those actions have been sufficient to address the concerns.
On Türkiye's EU bid, Miller said the United States has, for a number of years, supported its EU aspirations and "we continue to do so."

US pressure
It is clear that as a NATO member - Turkey will be under enormous pressure from the US to allow Sweden entry.

Turkey/Syria/Russian airforces
Images of an attack on a turkish backed Syrian groups fighting against Assad. Some of the forces killed…unclear who launched the attack.

This may be part of why Erdogan has agreed to release the 5 Azov commanders back to Ukraine.

AZOV
Melitipol Azov steel works - prisoner swap - due to nature of Azov commanders (ideology) not popular in Russia - agreement with Erdogan to keep them in Turkey and not allow them to return to Ukraine conflict.

I doubt that Turkey did not inform Russia of this decision - Erdogan is too experienced a politician to upset Putin on this topic - I feel Ankara likely discussed this with the Kremlin privately.

This one still feels somehow “staged” - as the actual value of this to Ukraine is purely PR - and the affront to Russia (if we believe that Erdogan did not inform Putin prior) is large, for no gain to Turkey. The Sweden deal and TUrkish howitzers were enough to keep NATO/US happy with Turkey.

Turkish Howitzers and Ukrainian Drone Factory
NATO support required - these check that box

Putin finds silver lining
Grain deal cancellation has not been confirmed yet - however, now Putin can do this and claim that Turkish decisions to break agreement over Azov is justification. Politically this is good for Putin - so even if Putin did not plan or expect the Azov release, he can still turn this to a positive. As the real impact of those 5 Azov commanders returning to the battle is minimal (there will be russian bounties upon them)... however it makes a great reason for ending the grain deal which Russia have claimed has not worked well for them for months.

I’d love to hear in the comments who you think benefits most out of the Azov deal.

The Deep404 - analysis of global events. Sister channel to @the3ps TheThirdPartyShow. #deep404