The Deep404

The Deep404 - analysis of global events. Odessa is next #odessa #ukrainewar #ukrainewarnews #ukrainerussiawar #ukrainenews Ochakov coming under attack - heavy artillery, MLRS, Kamakaze UAV - 20-70 km 60 E Odessa, 50 W Nikolaiev, 80 W Kherson Guards access to mouth of the Dnieper Dniprovska Gulf Pivdennyi Buh River - access to Nikolaiev Reportedly NATO/UK troops operate naval drones and coordinate landings across the Dnieper from Ochakov Closest southern land point to the LEFT BANK of Dnieper Attacks will draw reinforcements from Odessa and Mikolaiev - which will indicate positions, HQ, ammo dumps - this is preparation for Russian assault to cross the Dnieper - to assume control of the coast from Ochakov to the Danube river on the border with Romania Port of Chornomorsk is located in Ukraine at 46.3174N, 30.6876E. Vesselfinder - shipping tracking - No vessels have arrived within the past 24 hours and 1 ship is expected to arrive in the next 30 days. No shipping - no grain leaving Ukraine - unlike what Jens Stoltenbeg said earlier this week. Grain For the first time since March 2022, Russia entered the top five largest grain suppliers to the EU, and immediately moved into fourth place. According to Eurostat, purchases of Russian grain increased by 22% over the month and 10 times over the year – up to 180 thousand tons.“Sanctions,” they said and continued to purchase Russian grain. China Trade turnover between Russia and China has again grown faster than planned - already $200 billion since the beginning of the year The heads of the two countries set a goal of 200 billion for 2024. But by the end of 2023 we will reach 220 billion. The largest Chinese exports to the Russian Federation: trucks, excavators and loaders, rubber tires. In exchange, Russia sends mainly gas, oil, and coal. There is progress in other industries as well: the Chinese recently lifted all restrictions on the import of pork from the Russian Federation. US Weapon delays The Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) has been delayed again until early 2024. This is a 100 mile (160km) range rocket to be built by SAAB and Boeing. As the GLDSDB is GPS enabled it will be subject to jamming. I personally suspect they may attempt to add a secondary targeting system but this would make the weapon more expensive and would likely even further delay the release. For those unaware it is basically a dumb bomb attached to a common M26 rocket with a JDAM style glide kit. This is not a massive warhead as it's 93kg (205lb) with 16kg (35lb) of explosive which is slightly small then the payload of a GMLRS (23kg/51lb). Arestovich: desertions Oleksiy Arestovich, a former adviser to the president’s office, called for peace talks with Russia and said he would run for president. "Our problem is that, let me give you some figures - 100 people who have arbitrarily left military units per day in Ukraine. 100 people per day per day per day - that's a brigade per month. UKR lost 125k troops in 6 months Sergei Shoigu - Russian Minister of Defense BBC News Russian, Mediazona, and a team of volunteers, Russian military fatalities stood at around 35,780 as of November 3, 2023, excluding casualties from the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” (DNR and LNR). However, this figure is almost certainly a significant underestimate, as not all military funerals are public. Having cross-referenced these names with inheritance data, Meduza and Mediazona estimated the real number to have already been close to 47,000 as of last May. Adding in an approximate 20,000 from the DNR and LNR, the military death toll on the pro-Russian side may well exceed 70,000 Russia Armed Forces Grow Putin signed a decree establishing the authorized strength of the Russian Armed Forces at 2,209,130 people, including 1,320,000 military personnel, the Kremlin said - increase of 170K Russian Ministry of Defense: The increase in the number of military personnel in the Russian Armed Forces is being implemented in stages at the expense of citizens who express a desire to serve under a contract. The increase in staffing levels is due to the growing threats to Russia associated with the Northern Military District and the ongoing expansion of NATO. An additional increase in the combat strength and strength of the Russian Armed Forces is an adequate response to the aggressive activities of NATO Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation AI: Q* Open AI Sam Altman fired as CEO of Board “program or a creature” Learning to think abstracting to understand new data and improving itself developing efficiency in the way it solves. Solving mathematics “checking itself” as it solves “is thai right? Let me check” AES-192 - crypto at risk Sister channel to @the3ps TheThirdPartyShow. #deep404

The Deep404 - analysis of global events. #ukrainewar #ukrainewarnews #germanynews #nato #russianwar Europe in decline Nov 29th 2023 Henry Kissinger dead at 100 Secretary of State under Richard Nixon Oversaw Vietnam , Lao, Cambodia CIA coup in Chile - 1973 - CIA (confirmed in 2000 involvement) - overthrow the socialist government of Salvador Allende, replacing him with General Augusto Pinochet 11 September 1973, led a group of military officers, and ended civilian rule - replacing it with military control Nixon and Kissinger involved - Allende dies of gunshot wounds during the coup Germany Michelin - closing three factories - Tyre manufacturer “Today in Germany, Michelin is announcing it will gradually cease the production at its Karlsruhe and Trier sites, as well as the new tire and semi-finished products manufacturing of Homburg. Michelin will also transfer the Customer Contact Center from Karlsruhe to Poland” 1,532 employees are impacted by these operations, which are meant to be completed by the end of 2025 the lack of competitiveness of our German operations for our European and export markets Michael Berthel, chief economist of the German Rubber Manufacturers’ Association (WdK), recently commented that “the situation is not entirely healthy” – and this may be an understatement. Berthel believes an uncertain future awaits more than half of Germany’s tyre manufacturing locations. Dr Matthw Weilicki - German residential grid operators enabled to curtail flow of power to Heat Pumps and EV chargers in order to preserve the stability of the grid which is lacking from chronic underinvestment” German unemployment It "unexpectedly" soared to 5.9 percent in November 2023 up from 5.8% last month - the highest level in 2.5 years. An additional 22,000 people lost their jobs during the month. Russian Termites MDP01 Termite unmanned aerial vehicle Looks like tiny helicopter 450kg - 150kph - altitude 3.5km - 3x laser guided missiles Reusable Russian EW Reports of new ability to interfere/scramble the images recorded by certain reconnaissance satellites Does not impact all bands - but does impact visual spectrum Russian High-Power Artillery Brigades 2S7 Pion - 230mm Self propelled 240mm 2S4 Tulip Mortar Unmanned aircraft (drone) recon units Kyrylo Budanov - Ukr Military Intelligence Chief Wife Marianna allegedly poisoned - heavy metals in food - hospitalised and undergoing treatment Reporting of three growing factions: Zelensky Zaluzhny Budanov NATO Nutso Sec general Jens Stoltenberg - ❝As Ukraine has moved forward, Russia has fallen backward. It is now weaker politically, militarily, and economically… All of this underlines Putin’s strategic mistake in invading Ukraine.❞ Last year, Ukraine won the battles for Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson. This year, they continue to inflict heavy losses on Russia. Ukraine has recaptured 50 percent of the territory that Russia originally seized. In the Black Sea, the Ukrainians have pushed back the Russian fleet, and established routes for grain exports – bolstering global food security. Most importantly, Ukraine has prevailed as a sovereign, independent, democratic nation. This is a major achievement – a big win. As Ukraine has moved forward, Russia has fallen backward. It is now weaker politically, militarily, and economically. Politically, Russia is losing influence in its near abroad. Not only in Ukraine, but in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Russia is also becoming much more dependent on China. Year by year, Moscow is mortgaging its future to Beijing. Militarily, Russia has lost a substantial part of its conventional forces. Hundreds of aircraft. Thousands of tanks. And more than 300,000 casualties. Economically, Russia is also under pressure. Oil and gas revenues are dropping. Russian banking assets are under sanctions. Over 1,000 foreign companies have stopped or scaled down their operations in the country. And 1.3 million people left Russia last year. All of this underlines Putin’s strategic mistake in invading Ukraine. Reporters then go on to play softball with questions about F-16 timelines, Israel, Kosovo - no questioning of the fact that RUssia is advancing on 5 fronts and Avdeevka is falling Washington Post: Twenty months ago, after Vladimir Putin had launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine, many high-ranking Russians believed that the end was near. The economy faced disaster, as they saw it, and the Putin regime was on the brink of collapse. Today, the mood has changed dramatically. Business leaders, officials and ordinary people tell me that the economy has stabilized, defying the Western sanctions that were once expected to have a devastating effect. Putin’s regime, they say, looks more stable than at any other time in the past two years. #deep404

The Deep404 - analysis of global events. Huge Ukrainian Losses #ukrainewar #ukrainewarnews #ukraine #ukraina #ukrainerussiawar #ukrainenews #russianwar Ukraine front falling Russia winning Video from Kherson Reported URK video emerged showing not only hundreds of new graves but hundreds more body bags awaiting burial - https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/93490 Other video of the results of cluster munitions in Avdeevka And others of TOS1 thermobaric - see yesterday’s episode for some video Note: Ukraine is not using these weapons against Russia (cluster are limited to 155mm shells - RBK-500U version, is 250 cm long, with a diameter of 45 centimeters and weighing from 500 to 525 kilograms Multipurpose - anti tank 15 units, anti personnel with up to 326 units Ukraine not using the TOS1 flame throwersystem Big daily loses continue according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, Kiev lost approximately 680 servicemen killed or wounded and 2 tanks on various fronts within a day. Last week over 4k K&W Week before over 5k At this rate 230 -250K per year Air Defense - TASS reports Russian air defense systems have shot down two Ukrainian MiG-29 aircraft in the Dnepropetrovsk Region as well as wiped out 18 drones in 24 hours, the Russian Defense Ministry said. According to it, Russian forces have also intercepted a rocket launched from a US-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket system. Russian forces wipe out two Ukrainian aircraft armament depots with aircraft weapons – top brass They were located at military airfields in Dolgintsevo and in the Dnepropetrovsk region, the Russian Ministry of Defense said Ukraine forces evacuating Avdeevka - https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/93501 Video of forces leaving the industrial zone in southern Avdeevka. Reporting from Rybar… A few hours ago, Russian fighters successfully cleared the last building in the Yasinovataya-2 industrial zone in the southern part of the Avdeevsky fortified area after several days of intense and bloody fighting. ▪️ Since 2014, the industrial zone had been under the control of Ukrainian forces. However, despite the fortifications and reinforcements, it is now completely under the control of the Russian Army. ▪️ This line holds not only symbolic significance but also has strategic importance as it is situated on a hill overlooking the southern outskirts of Avdeevka. The southern neighborhoods will be within range of fire from this line, further worsening the situation for the AFU (Armed Forces of Ukraine). 🔻Simultaneously, on the northern flank, Russian units achieved small but crucial results. Russian Armed Forces personnel were able to establish a foothold at the railway adjacent to the coke plant. ▪️ Through a successful assault starting from the gold dump and pumping station, the enemy was completely driven out, expanding the controlled zone near the plant. 🔻Intercepted communications reveal that Ukrainian forces are complaining about the lack of support. According to AFU members, the command has abandoned the Avdeevka garrison, leaving its subordinates to fend for themselves. ▪️ Meanwhile, the transfer of reinforcements is ongoing. Units from the 116th mechanized brigade of the AFU have been redirected from the Zaporozhye direction, and the 45th separate rifle battalion has been placed under the command of the 31st Mechanized Brigade due to losses. Sister channel to @the3ps TheThirdPartyShow. #deep404

The Deep404 - analysis of global events. Ukraine - Running out of men Update 28 Nov 2023 #ukraineupdates #ukrainewar #ukrainewarnews #ukrainerussiawar #ukrainenews #ukrainecrisis Ukraine - Running out of men Mobilisation Ukrainian channel Legitimny: Our source reports that October 2023 became the first “globally minus/deficit” month in the mobilization In October, the shortage is more than 43% (for example, the losses were 10 thousand killed/wounded/decommissioned/commissioned, but only 5,700 people were called up). in the summer mobilization could still cover the losses, then in October there was a severe “shortfall” that could not cover the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The trend is bad, since November will also be deficient in the case of mobilization, but the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are growing, due to savings in ammo and heavy equipment. That is why they are in such a hurry to tighten mobilization and start pushing literally everyone into the army. Financial Times: The Ukrainian Armed Forces need younger soldiers because the current average age of the military is too high This is due to the fact that “the conflict has shifted to the level of small infantry battles on foot in trench systems.” Royal United Services Institute senior fellow Jack Watlin says the Armed Forces have mobilized "a disproportionate number of older men" this year, but what is now needed is younger men with more staying power. Rezident: General Staff said that the problem with attack aircraft is the most pressing for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, due to the strategy of preserving equipment. We are forced to send infantry to attack on foot, as a result of which we have very heavy losses and urgently need to recruit new reserves. Sister channel to @the3ps TheThirdPartyShow. #deep404

The Deep404 - analysis of global events. Israel Update 22nd Nov 2023 #israelpalestineconflict #israelwarnews #yemen #houthi Houthi attack on Galaxy Leader https://ddgeopolitics.substack.com/p/tell-the-king-and-his-imbecile-son Dramatic footage of a helicopter - landing unannounced upon the deck of the carrier Galaxy Leader - vehicles carrier - 21 years old - flying under flag of Bahamas Isle of Man registered Galaxy Maritime Ltd, which is the registered owner of the Galaxy Leader - British owned and Japanese operated Impacting shipping - Two other ships also listed as commercially managed by Ray Car Carriers, Glovis Star and Hermes Leader, diverted their sailing routes on Sunday, DD Geopolitics on their substack - reporting that the vessel was within Saudi Arabian waters when it was hijacked - near the port of Jeddah which is 700kms (435miles) from the Yemen border Russian Mil Mi-8 Helicopter, which has a range of 600 kilometers (370 miles) - which indicates that the chopper had some form of support and was either launched from shore or from a ship in the area as it could not have made the return trip from Yemen Begs the question - how did a Yemeni helicopter flying near the port of Jeddah (2nd largest in Arab world) go undetected by Saudi Arabian Military??? From DDGeopolitics article…. The military budget of the KSA is estimated at around 69 billion dollars, of that, 54 billion is provided by the US as military aid annually, along with extensive training from both the US and it’s NATO allies. Saudi Arabia operates the largest air force and navy inside the region, with one of it’s fleets stationed at the King Faisal Naval base in nearby Jeddah. The western fleet even maintains a special martitime security force designed to prevent piracy, and it has spent years operating in the region in cooperation with NATO forces, including the US Navy. Embarrassing for Saudi Arabia. Hezbollah Two Burkan missiles that were fired by Hezbollah are said to have hit Israel's Branit barracks Iran Iran has released footage of the Fattah-1 hypersonic missile launching and hitting a test target. China, Russia and now Iran have hypersonic missiles - the US does not - it has programmes for development but they are still in testing. Hypersonics travel well past 5 times the speed of sound - in some cases up to 10 times (Russian Kinzhal) - range of 1.5k - 2.0k kilometers Extremely difficult to intercept - while Ukraine claims in May to have shot down 6 Kinzhals in one night with a US Patriot AD system - this has not been proved correct and instead the US admitted that the Patriot System itself had been struck that night. Iraq Scenes from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq targeting the American occupation base, "Ain al-Assad" in western Iraq, at dawn on Tuesday. AC-130J Ghostrider - reportedly in sorties over Iraq last night - perhaps mistakenly left transponder on - 105mm cannon - U.S. Air Force Special Operations Command confirmed to Defense News it is considering removing this howitzer-sized weapon following the end of the Afghanistan War and amid a greater focus on America’s top adversary, China. 10 rounds per minute - original gulf war M1 Abrams held a 105mm cannon Two operations targeted Ain al-Assad base today, the first with drones and the second with missile strikes. Israel - revised numbers Hundreds of the reported dead Israelis - many of those burned bodies were actually Hamas fighters Mark Regev former Israeli ambassador to Uk has gone on tv to announce the mistake made - the level of damage through burning Many of the videos shown allegedly of Isralies burnt in vehicles are now quite possible Palestinians Israeli reserve pilot Col. Nof Erez - seems to confirm this in an interview with Haarez South Africa #BREAKING The South African Parliament votes in favor of shutting down the Israeli embassy, expelling the Israeli ambassador and severing relations with the Zionist occupation. Sister channel to @the3ps TheThirdPartyShow. #deep404

The Deep404 - analysis of global events. #thedeep404 #ukrainewarnews #ukrainewar #russianwar #poland #kherson Credit to https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/two-interesting-reads-afu-commander?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2 Sister channel to @the3ps TheThirdPartyShow. #deep404

The Deep404 - analysis of global events. Ukraine War Summary 18–24 November 2023 #deep404 #ukrainewar #ukrainewarnews #russianwar #geopolitics #ukraine #ukrainenews Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (18–24 November 2023) ▫️ In Kupyansk direction, https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/93315 Use of Maxpro vehicles in Kupyansk - shows the unexpected dangers of war - 2 run over units the Zapad Group of Forces have repelled 13 AFU attacks. Air strikes and artillery fire inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of AFU 10th Mountain Assault Brigade, 57th Motorised Infantry Brigade, 14th, 43rd, 53rd, and 67th mechanised brigades near Sinkovka, Ivanovka, Zagoruykovka, Kislovka, and Kupyansk (Kharkov region). The enemy losses were more than 305 Ukrainian troops, two armoured fighting vehicles, 16 motor vehicles, and seven field artillery guns. ▫️ In Krasny Liman direction, https://t.me/llordofwar/246396 TOS 1 TOS 1 Flamethrowers used in Krasny Liman area units of the Tsentr Group of Forces supported by aviation, artillery, and heavy flamethrower systems repelled ten attacks launched by assault detachments of the AFU 5th National Guard Brigade, 12th Special Operations Brigade, 24th, 47th, and 67th mechanised brigades. In addition, strikes were delivered at manpower and hardware of the AFU 31st National Guard Brigade, 117th and 125th territorial defence brigades close to Torskoye, Krasny Liman, Serebryanka, and Grigorovka (Donetsk People's Republic). The enemy losses totalled over 740 Ukrainian troops killed and wounded, six armoured fighting vehicles, 15 motor vehicles, and 3 field artillery guns. ▫️ In Donetsk direction, https://t.me/llordofwar/245390 cluster munitions Russia has begun to employ cluster munitions in Donetsk - multiple videos appearing showing what is reportedly the results of these attacks with many many ukrainian solders dead - shown being piled up in buildings and vehicles Russian forces shot down a Ukrainian surveillance drone - disguised as an Eagle. Appear to be a printed kite design to which a drone had been attached. Footage - drone striking three UKR soldiers - telling is there are at least three recordings of this from different directions - showing the number of drones the russians have in the air at any one time - they have enough to concentrate multiple on one small attack like this units of the Yug Group of Forces repelled 22 enemy attacks and inflicted losses on AFU manpower and hardware near Mariynka, Kurdyumovka, Vasyukovka, Artyomovsk, Andreevka, and Kleshcheyevka (Donetsk People's Republic). The enemy losses were more than 1,680 Ukrainian troops killed and wounded, four tanks, ten armoured fighting vehicles, 18 motor vehicles, and 14 field artillery guns. ▫️ In South Donetsk direction, units of the Vostok Group of Forces took more advantageous lines and positions, as well as repelled two enemy attacks. Air strikes and artillery fire inflicted losses on units of the AFU 58th Motorised Infantry Brigade, 72nd Mechanised Brigade, 79th Assault Brigade, as well as 127th and 128th territorial defence brigades close to Novomikhailovka, Staromayorskoye, Nikolskoye, Shevchenko, Novodonetskoye, and Konstantinovka (Donetsk People's Republic). The AFU losses amounted to more than 625 Ukrainian troops, seven armoured fighting vehicles, 16 motor vehicles, as well as 13 field artillery guns. ▫️ In Zaporozhye direction, FIghting continues on the Vremevka salient (ledge) This morning, reports the Ukrainians sent two motorized infantry platoons, reinforced with tanks, into battle near Urozhinye - the attacks were repulsed 300 tonnes - humanitarian aid - The head of the civil-military administration Malashko Gopvenor of the Ukrain controlled Zap region - said that the products transferred to the Zaporozhye region last year by Western partners have spoiled due to the negligence of some officials of the regional administration Reports that Zap has seen Russia employ the double strike tactic with Iskander missiles - after launching a strike a planned delay is left before a second iskander is sent to the location to attack military responding to the first strike Sister channel to @the3ps TheThirdPartyShow. #deep404

The Deep404 - analysis of global events. Winter is coming - Ukraine Update 21st November 2023 #ukraine #ukrainewar #ukrainewarnews #russia #avdeevka #avdiivka Winter is coming Snow is starting to fall in southern Ukraine - Zap In #Zaporozhye Direction, Kherson - temps now beginning to drop a few degrees below freezing each night Kiev - getting down to -8C (17F) Avg winter Start DEc - -4.8 — 2 deg (23 and 36 F), can get down to -20C (-4 F) Regular home fridge -4C, freezer - 18C heavy rains turning to snow complicate the work of aerial recon, active artillery work is also on pause Commercial FPV drones used for reconnaissance are temperature limited - below 30F 0C many start to have issues - batteries no longer charge properly and can drain quickly The big game changer - fpv drones are likely to slow and we may well see innovation on the battlefield in terms of battery preservation techniques Raputista - mud season coming to an end SNOW - also hampers everyday life - things slow down and time is spent on warmth SNOW makes moving difficult for men Heating now becomes criticall and supply shortages that could eb sustained in the warmer summer months now cannot be tolerated Frostbite becomes a real issue FOG - makes everything difficult - provides cover for DRG groups and infiltration, but hampers artillery targeting and aerial reconnaissance Supply lines - vitaly important Energy - as RUssia advance more of Ukriane will suffer power loss - on the flip side - as Russia advance they pull behind them power and repair crews - Mariupol as an example. And reports today that Ukraine is receiving 30% less 155mm shells since the start of the Israeli conflict. Ukraine Avdeevka - continued Russian progress Russian Drone industry The unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) industry is developing very quickly and the one mln specialists that are expected to be trained by 2030 may not be enough, Russian President Vladimir Putin said. Plan to grow domestic production from 50% to 80%. Russian Economic Growth Russian President Vladimir Putin said during the Untied Cultures Forum in St. Petersburg. Prime Minister [Mikhail Mishustin] proudly reported a 5.5% economic growth last month," Putin said. Finland closing border with Russia The government of Finland is considering closure of all checkpoints on the border with Russia but does not see the need for such measure yet. The government is considering closing of the entire border as a temporary measure in case the route of asylum seekers Helsinki has accused Moscow of encouraging or turning a blind eye to undocumented migrants crossing over - from Africa and the Middle East. Depleted Uranium elevating levels in UK Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolay Patrushev said during a meeting on security in the Central Federal District. "Radiation dangers related to the use of depleted uranium ammunition by Ukrainian forces have increased significantly," he stated."Our warnings have not been heeded. As a result of the destruction of depots with depleted uranium shells, shipped by the Anglo-Saxons - in order to prevent these shells from being used against Russia - the Europeans have been registering elevated radiation levels in their countries for several months," the official said. He pointed out that, last week, the European Committee on Radiation Risk (ECRR) registered elevated uranium particle content in the air in southeastern England as a result of air masses coming from Western Ukraine. Exports from Turkey to Russia on the decline Exports from Turkey to Russia have been declining in recent months due to the strengthening of China's position on the Russian market, the Turkish economic newspaper Ekonomim reported. Augmented Reality Zaluzhny - deep fakes calling on troops to overthrow Zelensky UK - PM Rishi Sunak David Cameron - Foreign Secretary Sister channel to @the3ps TheThirdPartyShow. #deep404

The Deep404 - analysis of global events. #ukrainewar #russianwar #ukrainewarnews Avdeevka 2014 - fortified/reinforced - 16 square kilometres More and more reports coming out that the commanding AFU officers in Avdeevka have been evacuated from the city. Artillery attacks on Donetsk city Stepove, Ocheretino, Novokalynove, Koksokhimzavod, and Avdeevka's industrial zone are the focal points of the conflict. UKR Report… “Russian forces are not halted and are achieving tactical successes. Currently, efforts are focused on delaying them rather than stopping. Prospects are uncertain due to the balance of forces, resources, and the ongoing operational challenges.” After having liberated Step/ov/oye (Petrovsky), north of Avdeevka, the Russian Forces have withdrawn from it but Ukrainians have not tried to recapture it, both sides realize that the lack of fortifications in the small village make it a trap for whoever tries to control it without securing the flanks, it's now in the grey zone. East of the Avdeevka coke-chemical plant, active combat persists. A significant portion of the plant transitions to a gray zone due to Ukrainian forces' withdrawal. Russian forces also make gains along the railway. South of the Avdeevka perimeter, Russian troops continue attacks, advancing towards the dacha settlement "Yagodka." Russian forces also push forward in the industrial zone north of Yasinovatsky Lane in southeast Avdeevka. Ukrainian analysts acknowledge a "highly complex situation" in this area. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports that Russian forces conduct assault operations in areas including Keramik, east of Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdeevka, and south of Tonenke, with 17 recorded attacks. Under artillery and mortar fire, Ukrainian positions in over 15 populated areas, including Alexandropol, Ocheretino, Stepove, Avdeevka, Severne, and Netaylovo, are affected. North - Ocher/it/ino Step/ov/e Ber/dy/chi Krasno/horivka Novo/kalinovo RUS strengthened the northern pincer - UKR knocked out of the forest plantation south of the settlement of Novokalinovo, the positions were cleared, and reconnaissance in force was carried out in the area of the railway northwest of the settlement of Krasnogorovka Russian forces have advanced south east of the slag heap/dump and control water treatment plant UKR reportedly retreated from Stepove - leaving it now in the gray zone South - O/pyt/ne Vod/ya/ne Expectation that sever fighting will commence in coming days as Russians begin to assault the most heavily reinforced areas of the Coke Plant Other areas _ after weeks of fighting the Russian Army has finally managed to take control of the village of Spornoye, east of Seversk Russian forces recaptured Andreevka, yes, it's the same settlement that the Ukrainians conquered during the "greatest counteroffensive" with huge losses, Russian reconnaissance groups entered inside it and found no AFU troops there so it looks like they decided to retreat, basically it was retaken by Russia without losses, or at least it's in the grey zone _ Russian forces managed to reach the outskirts of the strategically important town of Bogdanovka, west of Artemovsk (Bakhmut), as result of the successful offensive launched in the north-west of Artemovsk a few weeks ago, it's increasingly likely that Russian Forces are going to storm it in the coming hours or days The supply of F-16 aircraft is under threat: a high-ranking pilot of the Ukrainian Armed Forces defected to the Russian side and hijacked a Su-27 aircraft. Meanwhile, Russia has begun to destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, so far only with drones. Geraniums in Kiev Sister channel to @the3ps TheThirdPartyShow. #deep404

The Deep404 - analysis of global events. MoD Russia, [18/11/23 2:12 AM] ⚡️ Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (11–17 November 2023) Part I (see Part II (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/10883)) The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation. In the period from 11 to 17 November 2023, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation inflicted 24 group strikes with high-precision weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles on Liman operational-tactical group and Khortitsa operational-strategic group of forces' forward command posts and accommodation points for Ukrainian officers, as well as temporary deployment areas of Azov and Right Sector nationalists formations' militants. In addition, artillery arsenals, depots of weapons, military equipment, fuels and lubricants, airfield infrastructure, as well as a training center for snipers and engineers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were successfully hit. ▫️ In Kupyansk direction, units of the Zapad Group of Forces repelled 26 enemy attacks and improved the situation along the front line. Air strikes and artillery fire defeated manpower and hardware of AFU 30th, 54th, 57th, and 67th mechanised brigades near Sinkovka, Timkovka, Zagoruikovka (Kharkov region). The enemy losses totalled over 575 Ukrainian troops killed and wounded, two tanks, 10 armoured fighting vehicles, 11 motor vehicles, and 13 field artillery guns. ▫️ In Krasny Liman direction, the Tsentr Group of Forces supported by aviation, artillery, and heavy flamethrower systems, repelled 23 attacks launched by assault groups of AFU 24th and 47th mechanised brigades, 12th Special Forces Brigade, as well as the 15th Regiment of the National Guard of Ukraine. The enemy losses were more than 1,100 servicemen, eight armoured fighting vehicles, 14 motor vehicles, and five field artillery guns. ▫️ In Donetsk direction, the Yug Group of Forces repelled 33 enemy attacks and inflicted fire damage on AFU manpower and hardware near Mariynka, Kurdyumovka, Razdolovka, Andreevka, and Kleshcheyevka (Donetsk People's Republic). The enemy losses were more than 1,810 servicemen killed and wounded, two tanks, 24 motor vehicles, and 22 field artillery guns. ▫️ In South Donetsk direction, units of the Vostok Group of Forces captured more favorable positions and repelled two attacks of AFU 79th air assault, 128th territorial defence brigades' assault groups near Novomikhailovka and Nikolskoye (Donetsk People's Republic). Air strikes and artillery fire defeated AFU 72nd mechanised, 58th mechanised infantry, 102nd and 127th territorial defence brigades close to Ugledar, Staromayorskoye, and Urozhaynoye (Donetsk People's Republic). Over the week, the enemy has lost more than 745 militants, 12 armoured fighting vehicles, 15 motor vehicles, 20 field artillery guns, as well as one Grad MLRS. ▫️ In Zaporozhye direction, units of the Russian Group of Forces repelled three attacks of the AFU units near Rabotino (Zaporozhye region). Moreover, the Russian Armed Forces inflicted fire damage on manpower and hardware of AFU 33rd, 117th, and 118th mechanised brigades near Uspenovka and Malaya Tokmachka (Zaporozhye region). The enemy losses were more than 425 servicemen, two tanks, nine armoured fighting vehicles, 14 motor vehicles, and seven field artillery guns. ▫️ In Kherson direction, the enemy lost more than 460 troops killed and wounded, two tanks, and 17 motor vehicles during unsuccessful attempts to land on the island and on the right bank of the Dnepr. In the course of the counter-battery warfare, 16 field artillery guns and one Grad MLRS were hit. 🔹 Russian Defence Ministry (https://t.me/mod_russia_en) MoD Russia, [18/11/23 2:12 AM] ⚡️ Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (11–17 November 2023) Part II (see Part I (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/10882)) Operational-Tactical and Missile Troops of the Russian Groups of Forces destroyed one radar of Ukrainian S-300 air defence system and three counter-battery radar stations, including one German-made Cobra and two U.S.-made AN/TPQ-50. Russian air defence facilities shot down three Mig-29 fighter jets of the Ukrainian Air Force during air and air defence battles. Air defence units shot down 22 HIMARS MLRS projectiles, two JDAM aerial guided bombs, and 198 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles. 📊 In total, 536 airplanes and 254 helicopters, 8,989 unmanned aerial vehicles, 441 air defence missile systems, 13,446 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,185 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 7,123 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 15,342 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation. 🔹 Russian Defence Ministry (https://t.me/mod_russia_en) Sister channel to @the3ps TheThirdPartyShow. #deep404

The Deep404 - analysis of global events. Global Update 15th Nov 2023 #deep404 #israel #israelwarnews #usisscared The US is very worried This is bad for Israel Iran - Supreme leader - Ayatollah Ali Khameni Iran - President - Ebrahim Raisi Iranian President - Ebrahim Raisi - traveled to Saudi Arabia in 1st visit by Iranian President in over 10 years - recent rapprochement between SA and Iran Attended joint Arab-Islamic emergency summit of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation Met with both Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salem Al Saud (MBS) and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi for the first time. Also in attendance Syrian President Bassah Al Assad, turkish president recep tayyip erdogan and Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas and Qatar’s Emir Sheik Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani The group rejected claims that Israel’s response is self-defense and declared that all arm sales to Israel should be halted Israeli arms sales 70% US, 24% Germany, 6%Italy - 1% UK/Canada Interestingly India is the largest purchaser of Israeli arms - factor of 4, then Azerbaijan, Philippines and the US. Israel military - overview - go to sources - from Al Jazeera 170k active - 465k reserve 2k+ tanks 339 combat capable aircraft 310 ground attack fighters (200 F-16, 80 F-15, 30 F-35) 140 Helos (40 Apache) 50 patrol and coastal boats 5 submarines OID - future rule of Gaza Us Secretary of State - Tony Blinken - believes that Palestinian Authority should have central role - Blinken met Mahmoud Abbas earlier this month Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu - believes that Israel should do this for at least a year Times of Israel reporting on a piece written for the Wall Street Journal by ruling Likud Party (Danny Danon) and Ram Ben-Barak Opposition party (Yesh Atid) - where the Israeli lawmakers have called “countries around the world to accept limited numbers of Gazan families who have expressed a desire to relocate.” “The international community has a moral imperative—and an opportunity—to demonstrate compassion, help the people of Gaza move toward a more prosperous future and work together to achieve greater peace and stability in the Middle East.” The pair did not call for a ceasefire. 800,000 displaced residents of Gaza of a population of approx 2.0M The hypocrisy of their statement is staggering - ‘the rest of the world should address the refugee problem we are causing by bombing gaza relentlessly’ - is a demonstration of the depth of this conflict and how difficult a true resolution to this conflict will be. What might happen in a full ground war in Israel? Israel: 170K active + 465k reserve = 635k army US: 45k Total: 680K Hamas: 40k Lebanon: 84k Army + 100k Hezbollah = 184K Syria: 170K active + 50k reserve = 230K Iran: 610k active + 350k reserve = 960k Turkiye: 1M Total: 2.5M 3.7 : 1 ratio Note - the ability to increase numbers from Arab and Muslim countries in rapid time (by volunteers/mobilisation) far exceeds what the US can do - simple due to geography - the US can deploy their Navy and transport additional troops however this is limited and slow compared the Muslim forces that will walk if needed US missile capability - may give an initial advantage - but again, resupply becomes difficult as Arab forces will target any US resupply attempts by sea and overland is not possible. US and Israeli air force will initially be very strong - but again resupply, refueling becomes difficult as US ability to supply troops is hampered Arabs will cut access to Oil from the Persian Gulf - if Egypt become involved then the Suez Canal will close to US warships GO TO MAP This is why US does not want war in Israel - because it can’t win - its ability to project power into the centre of the middle east is zero once the Arab nations unite US bases in Syria and Iraq are already coming under daily attack with reports that there are injuries and deaths - only 3.4K troops in Syria/Iraq) Ships won’t be able to approach except from the Med (this is a long slow route from the US - and if Turkiye becomes involved then this route becomes fraught with danger AND - if the Arab world has united against Israel and the US - then the US has another problem to content with - internal attack. Once a global Jihad is declared upon the US all radical Muslims within the US will be compelled to obey and this will result in a level of domestic turmoil within US the likes of which have not been seen before. Note the term Jihad literally means “to strive or struggle within oneself against sin” but has been adapted as a term referring to a holy-war against the enemies of Islam. Sister channel to @the3ps TheThirdPartyShow. #deep404

The Deep404 - analysis of global events. Bye Bye Bibi. Pressure for Netanyahu to resign. US diverge on Gaza approach. Ukraine leadership squabbles. Nov 14 2023 prime minister of Israel since 2022, having previously held the office from 1996 to 1999 and again from 2009 to 2021. Israel’s longest serving prime minister 16 years Biden expresses frustration with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, confirms 3-day pause request.He said he has asked for even a longer pause in some cases. Haaretz Israel's longest published newspaper - questions how far Netanyahu will go to avoid responsibility for the Oct 7 Hamas attacks - reports that he ignored warnings from his own military for months preceding the attack. A second headline published today - Netanyahu Sets Israel on Collision Course With Biden Over Gaza War Sub-head - Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes a lengthy war in Gaza will alleviate criticism and keep him in power. More importantly, he thinks it will allow him to spread the blame, shedding all personal responsibility for the October 7 devastation Corruption: led by an Israeli leader who is now overwhelmingly discredited within his own country due to numerous corruption allegations - On 21 November 2019, Netanyahu was officially indicted for breach of trust, accepting bribes, and fraud, leading him to legally relinquish his ministry portfolios other than prime minister. Netanyahu's trial in the Jerusalem District Court began on 24 May 2020, with witness testimony starting on 5 April 2021. The prosecution listed 333 witnesses.[1] As of October 2023, the criminal trial is still ongoing.[2] public support is not growing even with him leading a popular response Polls continue to tell the same., last week the right wing daily founded to support Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel HaYom, called on Netanyahu to resign at the close of the war. The difference is that the costs and dangers of Netanyahu’s continued rule are growing graver and appearing in a starker relief. WHy is Biden stepping away - There is a growing dislike in the voting public about Israel’s response to the Hamas attacks. General public understands that Hamas are bad - but they see the constant Israeli bombing as bad too. The public is growing tired of the “criticise the response = antisemitic” The approach to Hostages is also being criticised - many feel that Israel should be doing more to achieve a ceasefire and release of hostages Lebanon and Hezbollah - israel attacks are being seen by US as escalatory, and more aggressive than Hezbollah’s Hassan Nassrallah - who’s two public speeches have been measured in not calling for Hezbollah to engage with Israel - this may change but for now the US are seeing more restraint from Hezbollah than from Israel. Biden requesting a three day pause - to allow humanitarian aid and to achieve hostage release - Netanyahu not agreeing WHite House Spox - John Kirby - 4 hour daily pauses being implemented - a step in right direction but in reality not a ceasefire - Biden himself is to concerned by the political backlash from the Israel lobby to actually call for a ceasefire Nuclear capability Asked in a radio interview about a hypothetical nuclear option, Eliyahu had replied: "That's one way." "This has raised a huge number of questions," Maria Zakharova, Russia's foreign ministry spokeswoman, was quoted as saying by state RIA news agency. Zakharova said the main issue was that Israel appeared to have admitted that it had nuclear weapons. While Israel does not admit to having nuclear weapon capability…. Ukraine - leadership squabbles Avdeevka Stepove (NW) - russians advancing - Aiming to take Berdichi (NW) and then looking to consolidate full fire control over Orlivka - Simplicius the Thinker - indicated (Tanks, ATGMs, Laser guided mortars - currently FPV drones providing fire control. Some speculation that Russia is happy to take time here - repeat the cauldron and attrition of UKR troops of Bakhmut in Avdeevka and perhaps let the UKR leadership implode - a bit of ride the advantage and wait and see what happens in Bankova/Kiev. Sister channel to @the3ps TheThirdPartyShow. #deep404

The Deep404 - analysis of global events. Global Update 13th Nov #ukrainewar #israelpalestineconflict #deep404 Ukraine/Russia: Day 628 - Israel/Palestine: Day 38 Ukraine Western dreams for Ukraine still strong…. Anne Applebaum of the Atlantic…. The West Must Defeat Russia Putin hasn’t given up his plans. He thinks Ukraine’s allies will lose interest. They planned to take Kyiv in three days, the rest of Ukraine in six weeks. More than 21 months later, Russian forces have withdrawn from half the territory they occupied in February of last year. At least 88,000 Russian soldiers are likely dead—a conservative estimate—and at least twice as many have been wounded. Billions of dollars worth of equipment, Russian tanks, planes, artillery, helicopters, armored vehicles, and warships have been destroyed. If you had predicted this outcome before the war—and nobody did—it would have seemed fanciful. No one would have believed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, a professional comedian, could lead a country at war, that the democratic world would be united enough to help him, or that Russian President Vladimir Putin would endure such a humiliation. Seems to be ignoring the real world….. Part of the Republican resistance to helping Ukraine fight an American adversary is simply the perverse desire to see President Joe Biden fail. Another part comes from the fear that Ukraine is not able to win. The Ukrainian summer counteroffensive did have some success, especially in the Black Sea, where a combination of drones and missiles has badly weakened Russia’s navy and forced some of its ships to leave the Crimean port of Sebastopol. But the progress on land was slow. Ukraine’s ability to inflict huge casualties on Russia was not enough to create a backlash, or a reconsideration, in Moscow. General Valery Zaluzhny, the Ukrainian commander in chief, has recently spoken of the war as a “stalemate.” Propaganda is strong In Israel/Gaza - Both sides of the conflict are seemingly trying to win the propaganda war, from 40 beheaded babies to 6 fingered AI fathers holding bloodied children…. It is unusual given the level of actual atrocities occurring that people feel the need to make things even worse? However, it does make it difficult to know what is happening - about a year ago I realised that AI technology had become so good that I could no longer discern fake video from real…. And now it seems that you need to evolve a ‘feel’ and look for multiple sources for confirmation. Israel - suffering As for those who think Israel is taking its time—many reports indicate that Israel’s economy is facing massive shocks from this war. They’re bleeding over $600M per week—6% of GDP—from a combination of war costs, lost tourist revenues, as well as a lot of agricultural operations reportedly completely shutting down as settlers and workers flee particularly the north near Lebanon. Massive columns of tanks - no infantry - aerial bombing then slow movement and no appreciable losses of Hamas fighters being reported. Talk of engaging ex UK PM Tony Blair to assist with the media handling of the civilian casualties being caused by the Israeli bombing campaign. Muslim followers of Islam (90% Sunni, 10% Shia) 1.9B The largest Muslim population in a country is in Indonesia, a country home to 12.7% of the world's Muslims, followed by Pakistan (11.1%), India (10.9%) and Bangladesh (9.2%).[8][19] About 20% of Muslims live in the Arab world.[20] In the Middle East, Iran and Turkey are the largest Muslim-majority countries, while Egypt and Nigeria in Africa have the same status Battle Front - Middle East Syria and Iraq - continue to escalate - US reprisal attacks and new attacks by Iran revolutionary guards on the US base in the conoco oil field - also Also Russian airforces have bombed Syrian Rebels in the Idlib area. Also reports that Houthis of Yemen have shot down a US RQ-9 reaper drone with an Iranian missile. In Gaza fighting continues - reports of AL SHifa hospital being put under seige - deaths due to lack of power, West Bank clashes also reported. Concern from US that ISrael may wish to expand the conflict and drag the US in to suport them 5 US Army killed Black Hawk refueling crash east mediterranean off the coast of cypress. Turkish President Erdogan - Erdogan condemned Netanyahu once again and said that he was on his last legs. "Know this, you are on your last legs. As you sow, you shall reap. And you shall reap." Battle Front - Ukraine Avdeevka - Russian assault continues. Russians report success overcoming a minefield at Vodyane (south ) and intensifying artillery and airforce assaults on Pervomaiske. Pincers closing down to 5.8km between then now Reports of Ukrainian fuel having colouring added to it to dissuade the theft of fuel - apparently this is an age old problem with a Red thread being woven through rope on British ships in the 18th Century. Sister channel to @the3ps TheThirdPartyShow. #deep404

The Deep404 - analysis of global events. Global Update 12th Nov 2023. #deep404 #ukrainewar #israelwar AMericans - losing men - being kept quit - ALexander Mercouirs - Larry johnson Sonar21 - inn interview this week stated that his sour ces indicate US soldiers are being lost and taken to military hospitals due to the attacks on Iraq/Syrian bases. The incidents add to the more than 40 assaults that US and allied troops based across the Middle East have come under since the Israel-Hamas war started on October 7. Reuters reports a defective Iranian drone - smashed 2nd story barracks - failed to detonate- Erbil air base - 3400 troops in Iraq/Syria HAMAS Note that Hamas received some Israeli funding in its early days as The Israeli Govt at the time preferred Hamas to the PLO (Yassar Arafat) and Fatah party. This isn’t a conspiracy theory. Listen to former Israeli officials such as Brig. Gen. Yitzhak Segev, who was the Israeli military governor in Gaza in the early 1980s. Segev later told a New York Times reporter that he had helped finance the Palestinian Islamist movement as a “counterweight” to the secularists and leftists of the Palestine Liberation Organization and the Fatah party, led by Yasser Arafat (who himself referred to Hamas as “a creature of Israel.”) GAZA Gaza has been under Israeli military control since 1967. The mid-1990s Oslo Accords established the Palestinian Authority to govern both territories, which it did under Palestinian nationalist party Fatah until that party's electoral defeat in 2006 to militant Sunni Islamic organization Hamas. Change coming in Europe Already we have seen Fico take leadership in SLovakia and got there on a platform of stopping support for Ukraine. German Election June 2024 - Scholtz likely to lose to opposition - AfD polling well, Green policies/War with Russia under US direction, immigration - all leading to his downfall. SPain - An amnesty deal between Spain's Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) party and Catalan separatists (JUNTS Party)- Pedro Sánchez - this is seen as an attempt by the socialists to form a coalition and form government after June 23 election left Spain with no government. Led to 4 days of rioting - as the public feel - deal allows no charges for sedition for the Catalan separatists. American Presidential Election Nov 2024 - Ukraine has been a disaster, corruption and impeachment consideration (Mike johnson - new house speaker - considering not pursuing due to Bidens already low polling numbers (38% approval - 55%dissaproval - Trump is polling better) US Presidential GOP Republican Presidential Debate - Vivak Ramaswamy considered the clear leader - Nikki Haley - looking for more war with IRAN as the solution to America's problems - debt, open border, culture crumbling, fentanyl issue. Ukraine Russian force growing - Artomovsk - he Artemovsk direction, the Russian army continues to take advantage of the withdrawal of part of the enemy personnel to the Avdeevsk direction and pushes the enemy further and further from the railway line in the area of Kleshcheevka and Andreevka. Our fighters are also advancing in the area of the Berkhov reservoir, expanding the bridgehead for further offensive Avdeevka - the pincers are slowly being closed - There are successes of our troops on the northern ledge in the area of the settlement. Stepovoye , to the outskirts of which our troops advanced. The control zone near the railway in that area is expanding. At the coke plant, Klechevsky - russians now pushing back and claiming land Andriivka - russia have taken back the railway line and the underground protection/bunker SOuth Donetsk - Urozhaine - Staromiorsk - NOT a normal assault - large russian push being reported - signifoicant armoured equipment - will be a reversal of the progress made by Ukraine in the Vremky ledge area Zap Rabotnoye/Verbove… The Zaporozhye front is characterized by the transfer of enemy attacks to the west from Rabotino , constant and strong artillery shelling and counter battles at Verbovoy, enemy attacks on civilian infrastructure in the rear. Kherson - fierce fighting and attrition of UKR troops as they cross the Dnipr river near Krynki More and more talk emerging of Zelensky needing to be removed in order to allow negotiations to occur with Russia - time is running out for Zelensky. Philippines & Japan _ brian Berletic - New Atlas Being talked out of China Belt and Road initiatives - the US looking to position them as their allies/proxies in a conflict with China - much like Ukraine against Russia

The Deep404 - analysis of global events. #israel mismanaging response to Hamas. #Turkey growing rhetoric and military readiness. #ukraine being destroyed. Sister channel to @the3ps TheThirdPartyShow. #deep404

Ukraine War Update July 17th 2023 Russian Special Military Operation Kerch Bridge attack - map Kerch straits only access to the Sea of Azov Major Russian supply line Dual carriageway for cars and dual carriage for trains Oct 2022 - Ukrainian Truck bomb - destroyed - a section of the bridge Today - appears to be missile strike has caused a span of the car bridge to fail - with 2 fatalities - some horrifying footage There is talk that Ukraine may have reprogrammed some Soviet S-200 AD missiles (range 300km) or SS and SCALP. This will see reprisals from Russia as - likely a SS or French SCALP - given the distance, and the fact that Russia considers Crimea and the Kerch bridge to be Russian territory - seen as direct missile attack with UK or French missile on Russia. This will not extend the Black Sea Grain Deal The Missing Generals Let me speculate…. Much noise recently from Ukrainian channels that RUssia is undertaking a purge of military commanders due to them not being loyal to President Putin…. However Military Summary Channel has suggested something else may be going on and I tend to agree. In the last month: General Surivikin Russian army general serving as Commander-in-Chief of the Aerospace Forces Has not been seen publicly since his video addressing Evgeny Prigozhin during the insurgency - much speculation that he has been imprisoned for disloyalty. Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, Popov, Mizintsev, Seliverstov, Kharkov Missile strike - reportedly struck two trains that were loaded with NATO equipment. Lancet Drones - 200K 1m in development - Alexander Zakharov - gave a tour of factory and described the new version Lancet drones. New version Izdeliye-53 - new swarming capability - one can detect a group of targets and call in other loitering munitions to join the attack. 1 FPV drone - can do what 10s or hundreds of shells could do - so while we speak about ammunition shortages - bugger concern may be drone shortages. The Deep404 - analysis of global events. Sister channel to @the3ps TheThirdPartyShow. #deep404

November Deadline - Sea of Azov November Telegram Rezident - reports that Biden Administration - has told Zelensky that they must continue the push to take Crimea - Have till Nov 2023 - if not demonstrated success then funding will begin to decrease. Ukrainian armed forces Commander Valery Zaluzhny - again rumours of him not supporting an offensive at this time. Perhaps Leading to …… Ukraine Offensive Kherson - amphibious assault by the Ukrainians expected - National Guard of Ukraine representative has announced - mentioned yesterday that Russian MOD intelligence believed this to be about to occur. Poland - expressing desire to put Polish peace-keeping forces in Ukraine - Zelensky rejected the idea - one line of thinking is that Zelensky is worried that the Polish forces may in fact attempt to carve of some of Western Ukraine for Poland. Polish Volunteer Corp - involved in excursion into Belgorod - Polish, US, Uk, Canada, Romania - directly reports to Ukrainian MOFA There have been reports that Poland’s support of Ukraine has not been entirely due to a hatred of Russia, but also that if the Ukrainian state were to collapse, then Poland would claim western areas of Ukraine Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said: “There is now an obvious desire of Poland to invade the western part of Ukraine. This is why Ukraine is not invited to NATO.” Political change Ben Wallace - UK Defense Secretary -contemplating departing politics in AUtumn - British PM - Rishi Sunak is planning to reshuffle his cabinet. Wallace - denied the EU Gen Sec role by BIden Admin - for being to aggressive in attempting to get F-16s into Ukraine - something US does not want due to the expected bad optics of burning F-16s falling due to Russian S-400 Air Defense. Vitali Klitschko - Heavyweight Boxing world champ (45 and 2 record) - says Zelensky beginning to purge political rivals - claims that when he is publicly asked if he would run for president that Zelensky initiates searches on his properties/home Turkey Erdogan - August meeting with Putin (Dmitry Peskov Press Sec to Putin - says timing of visit unconfirmed “WE HAVE COMMON positions on the grain deal” PMC Wagner Now in Republic of Belarus - transition to Belarusian control - expectation is they will engage Prigozhin breaks silence - comments on the negative press given about Wagner Finally Commander Popov Former commander of the 58th Army Major General Ivan Popov Yong fast rising 58th flagship combined arms army Bested Georgia in 2008 Leading the Zaporozhian front - repelling the largest Ukrainian offensive to date Valerie Gerasimov - Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and First Deputy Minister of Defence was previous commander of the 58th Army Private address to his subordinates - leaked - critical of MOD However - many others praising Shoigu and Gerasimov Ukrainian Zaluzhny has praised Gerasimov - studied his books - greatest commander of his generation The Deep404 - analysis of global events. Sister channel to @the3ps TheThirdPartyShow. #deep404

Ukraine battle update - 14th July 2023 NATO Summit completed. No time table, no membership action plan, worse than 2008 Bhucarest invitation. However, no timetable or detail was provided - again leaving Ukraine with promises of future support but no definition. President Zellensky - NATO disappointed, frustrated - calling the lack of timetable for admission “unprecedented and absurd” G7 - France, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, Italy, and Canada , and the European Union (EU) - The G7 brings together the world's advanced economies to influence global trends and tackle pervasive and crosscutting issues, as well as emergent global crises “We will stand with Ukraine as it defends itself against Russian aggression, for as long as it takes.” Outlining how the G7 will support Ukraine over the long term, the joint statement said the countries will ensure “a sustainable force capable of defending Ukraine now and deterring Russian aggression in the future” by providing modern military equipment across land, air and sea, training for Ukrainian forces, and intelligence sharing. Again…, no timetable or detail was provided - again leaving Ukraine with promises of future support but no definition. The West is not ready to get into a war with Russia and they know it - hence their reluctance to push ahead with a firm timetable. Ukrainian retaliation? Politico reports - Kyiv is unlikely to renew a gas transit deal that allows Russia's Gazprom to export natural gas to the EU using pipelines running across Ukraine, Energy Minister German Galushchenko told POLITICO. The 2019 transit deals runs until the end of 2024 and allows Gazprom to export more than 40 million cubic meters of gas a year via Ukraine, which earns Kyiv about $7 billion. “I believe, by the winter of 2024, Europe will not need Russian gas at all,” Galushchenko said in a telephone interview. “If now profits from Russian gas pay for Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and Gazprom’s private army, the only thing they should pay for in the future shall be reparations.” Battle Update Kurchatov, Kursk - reports of large explosion and Air Defense being activated - possible drone fragments detected after. Kurchatov borders the KURSK NUCLEAR POWER PLANT and is 1km from the plant. Reports are that this is a Ukrainian UAV drone ( kingtech k-210 turbine). Novovoronezka Nuclear Power plant Kupyansk - Liman (30 soldiers, 4 APC, 2 Arty) Novoselivska - Russians have entered the settlement of Novoselivska and established control. Advance to west now able to continue - Ukraine have not established strong defences to fall back to. Kupiansk - Russians shelling and bombing - Ukraine lost ammunition dump and Armoured Vehicle Torske - between Liman and Kreminnia (90 soldiers, 8 APC, 2 Artillery) Kreminnia Forrest - difficult fighting - video hand to hand grenades being thrown a distance of metres Soledar region - Ukrianin footage of a Rudssian transport truck destroyed by Drone, and may have pushed Russian troops back slightly towards Berestove Kleschiivka Fog of war - slow down in information coming out - SW Russian control Avdeevka 15 separate UKR attacks in the day - most towards Krasnohorivka Russians have established fire control over the main road between Orlivka and Lastochkyne - main supply road to Avdiivka used by Ukraine troops. A growing threat that Russians will repeat the tactics of Bakhmut and encircle Avdiivka from the south west and North Donetsk (total) 480 soldiers, 6 Armour, 6 Artillery, 1 Radar Vremevka ledge Heavy fighting - intense and accurate artillery use from ukraine - multiple video of Russian loss of a Giatsint - mobile artillery piece between Vremevka and Vuledar. However - video also showing Ukrainian armoured losses, in one case a convoy of perhaps 5 vehicle alleged all destroyed Zaporizhzhya Robotyne/Bradley Square South of Orikhov/Orekhov - 180 soldiers, 8 Armour, 8 Artillery Videos showing losses to both Russian and Ukrainian forces - including some missile attacks launched by Russians. Kherson - 70 soldiers Islands still disputed - grey zone. However Russian intelligence reporting a large scale offensive from AFU expected in coming days to assum Crimea Snake Island - bombing - Putin Stated interview - Jiune 4 311 AFU Tanks destroyed - many western Biden Authorised call-up 3000 US Armed Forces Reserve - for upcoming exercise “Operation Atlantic Resolve” operating since 2014, sees supplementing and strengthening of NATO defense position in eastern NATO states - Estonia, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary - primary air bases - F-16s, In 2017 - 3k troops and 90 tanks, 140 Bradley FIghting Vehicles. EU authoritarian Digital commissioner - social media such as twitter/tiktok - could be cut off in event of social unrest Evgeny Prigozhin Video of Wagner forces redeploying to Belarus The Deep404 - analysis of global events. Sister channel to @the3ps TheThirdPartyShow. #deep404

Ukraine War news update - Breaking news - Possible Ukrainian attcks with drones on two different Russian nuclear power plants. Kurchatov, Kursk - reports of large explosion and Air Defense being activated - possible drone fragments detected after. Kurchatov borders the KURSK NUCLEAR POWER PLANT and is 1km from the plant. Reports are that this is a Ukrainian UAV drone ( kingtech k-210 turbine). Novovoronezka Nuclear Power plant The Deep404 - analysis of global events. Sister channel to @the3ps TheThirdPartyShow. #deep404

It looks like the Ukrainian offensive's big push is starting. Reports coming in that Avdeevka is to be the location of a big offensive from Ukraine today. The Deep404 - analysis of global events. Sister channel to @the3ps TheThirdPartyShow. #deep404

The Deep404 - analysis of global events. Sister channel to @the3ps TheThirdPartyShow. #deep404. Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant - False Flag No reason for Russia to destroy the plant Ukraine starting Nuclear drills in West Zap Poland issuing flyers on nuclear fallout 💥Some Ukrainian telegram channels received information that servicemen from the 124th and 126th brigades of the Teroboron Defense Brigade, as well as the 406th Independent Artillery Brigade of the AFU conducted radiochemical and biological protection exercises on the territory of the right-bank part of the Kherson region For its part, though, the U.S. has stated they have not yet seen any such signs that Russia intends to attack the ZNPP: The United States does not see any evidence that there is a threat of undermining the Zaporozhye NPP by the forces of the Russian Federation, as Kiev claims. This was announced on Monday at a briefing by the coordinator for strategic communications at the White House National Security Council, John Kirby. "We have not seen any signs that this threat [of undermining the NPP by Russian forces] is imminent, but we are watching it very closely," he said. Kirby also said that the United States has the ability to monitor the radiation situation near the NPP, but did not inform about the current state of the radiation background. At the same time, on June 23, he also said that "the United States is not currently recording an increase in radiation levels in the area of the Zaporozhye NPP." SImplicius the tyhinker comments This could be their attempt to defuse and/or distance themselves from the situation in the similar way they tried to do with the Nordstream attacks. But it could also be a signal to Ukraine that “we don’t have your back, don’t do this”. As I wrote about before, I believe that Ukraine could be going rogue on this plan and in fact using it to ‘blackmail’ the U.S./EU/NATO into the arms supplies and security guarantees it wants by holding the nuclear dagger over them like a sword of Damocles, with the threat that “if you don’t give us what we want, we’ll force you into WW3 against Russia.” However the IAEA( International Atomic Energy Agency) - who have inspectors onsite have not reported any Russian mining of the plant. Experts of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as of today have not recorded any signs of mining of the Zaporozhye NPP. This is stated in the message of the agency's director General Rafael Grossi, published on Friday on the organization's website. "The IAEA experts have not yet found any visible signs of mines or other explosives currently installed at the Zaporizhia nuclear Power Plant but they still need additional access to conduct further such inspections at the facility," Grossi said. According to him, the agency's experts over the past week also did not record any shelling or explosions in the area of the station. Poland providing flyers to the public indicating what to do in case of nuclear event. THis is a pretext to full NATO war Lindsey Graham - Blumenthal Senatord - calling for agreement to allow any russian attack to ZPP invoke Article 5 NATO response

The Deep404 - analysis of global events. Sister channel to @the3ps TheThirdPartyShow. #deep404 #franceriots #frenchriots #parisriots Ukraine Battle Update Global News Roundup CIVIL WAR While the western media pushes a narrative that Putin has barely escaped a civil war and is teetering in instability….. In France there is far less reporting of the country wide riots… France - Nahel M a 17yr old boy killed by two police in a roadside stop in Nanterre (Nohn-tear), Paris. 4 days of riots - violent attacks - video of amputations - gun shop looted - explosions and fires all across France - reports and videos on social media today of rioters throwing grenades and starting to use rifles. - even what appears to RPG usage against a police station. MACRON Macron’s response was that this is due to video games and bad parenting - Nero Fiddles scene - Macron attended an Elton John concert as the streets of Paris burned in the 4th night of rioting. In May 2023 Macron’s popularity sank to its lowest ever with less than a quarter of polled adults approving of him and a 70% disapproval rating. He folds power till the next French presidential election in 2027, however he lost his parliamentary majority in June 22 elections which is hampering him. Multiculturalism in France appears to be destabilising at the moment. Whilst the western media would have you believe otherwise right now Moscow seems to be stable as France appears on the edge of civil war. ANTONOVSKY BRIDGE Iskander missile - destroyed the eastern span under which AFU forces were reportedly deploying Electronic Warfare equipment. Establishing a bridgehead and using the Bridge for cover - the Russian forces had destroyed the bridge last year after their withdrawal from Kherson… but a section remained standing on the eastern end. Reporting is that a combined surprise assault by Russian forces approaching via boats from behind occurred after the Iskandar strike and that the Ukrainian forces have been neutralised. Reports that AFU reinforcements sent overnight - fight still continuing - although the purpose is unclear - given Russian ability to destroy bridge when desired. Wagner - Prigozhin Prigozhin - Belarus, troops returning to Donbass, other’s heading to Belarus perhaps to train forces on the border of Poland and Lithuania. MSM attention seems to have moved from Sergie Shoigu to Sergey Surovikin Commander-in-Chief of the Aerospace Forces and Deputy Commander in Ukraine after with claims that he was sympathetic to Prigozhin - however there has been no announcement from the Russian MOD or the Kremlin and reports today arrived of his daughter apparently confirming that he his working as normal. I think the Russians are not taking the bait here and are just abc to work - and not particularly concerned about Western claims that Surovikin has been detained - however we will watch this and see. The Wagners in Belarus is being talked up as a reason for needing to provide Ukraine NATO security. Imprisoned Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny - why him but not Prigozhin Chernigov Interestingly - an uncorroborated report - that Wagner are planning to be involved in the Ukraine Chernigov region - this is just north of Kyiv/south of Belarussian border. Earlier in May there were a series of seemingly unexplained nightly glide bomb strikes in this area. Might be worthwhile keeping an eye on. A general mobilisation has just been announced unsure if this is in anyway related? Robotyne Reports of advances in this area of Zaphorozhia region… pushing towards Tokmak. NATO NATO Summit Vilnius 11-12 July. The big questions - who will take over from Stoltenberg as Secretary General and what will be the outcome of discussions about providing Ukraine with security guarantees . The Ukrainian government is lobbying hard behind the scenes for a bespoke route to joining Nato, jettisoning the normal membership action plan (Map) that leaves accession at risk of a last-minute veto by any of the member states. USA apparently is talking about forming a new ‘coalition of the willing’ to guarantee ongoing support for Ukraine without the need for Ukraine entering NATO. Zelensky apparently claims that he won’t attend the Summit unless he is given ‘a signal’ that the process for Ukraine to enter NATO will commence. Turkey and Sweden - The approved burning of a copy of the Holy Quran in Sweden by protestors - is likely to stiffen Turkey's reluctance to agree to allowing Sweden to join NATO. Turkey opposed Sweden's entry due to Sweden allegedly providing asylum to Kurdish militants, namely the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party ) who threatened a coup against Turkey and Turkey considered to be terrorists. Turkey is strongly supportive of its Islamic community and has quarreled with France over France’s approval of cartoonists to make satire of the Prophet Mohammed. Nuclear Escalation

NATO 12th July 2023 #nato #nafo ##UkraineWar #russia NATO Jens Stoltenberg - unhappy that China refuses to condemn Russia's war with Ukraine - stating “the country is undermining the foundations of the rules-based world order, so allies will work together against such behaviour by China” Jens also commented “ approved a force of 300,000 soldiers on standby including ari and sea capabilities” Cracks starting to emerge after summit - UKR newspaper reports “THe west is responsible for the failure of the offensive” - did not provide enough aide. Viktor Orban - Prime Minister of Hungary - “Peace should be delivered to Ukraine..not weapons! He called for ceasefire and immediate peace negotiations” - stated that 10s of thousands of hungarians are in immediate danger - ? Transcarpathia ceded to Ukraine in 1945, with many ethnic Hungarians - Transcarpathia is an oblast on the far west of Ukraine. Zakarpattia Oblast As expected “ Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto ” confirmed that Hungary support Sweden joining NATO Over all the summit Not good for Ukraine - kept in the tumbledryer - military support but no direct NATO boots on the ground - lead to more UKR deaths Images of Zelensky - looking dejected, isolated - perhaps realising that Ukraine are a pawn in a larger US Russia conflict “tweeted the decison of nato members to not confirm timeframe of Ukraine entry was “unprecendented and absurd” Germany out of shells? Reuter report from June 19th indicated Germany had only 20,000 HE shells remaining, howe er German Chancellor Scholtz has announced an aid package of $&00m euros that will provide 20,000 HE shells. Now Reuters may be wrong - Germany may have produced more in the last month, but the numbers do not appear to be orders of magnitude apart - indicating that the West's shell shortage is wide spread. Medvedev comments on cluster munitions Commented on NATO - outcomes as expected and that Tokmak (Zap region) was shelled with cluster munitions - he then stated “This means it's time to unleash our arsenals of this human weapon” Russian production ROstech’s Deputy Genral Director - Vladimir Artyakov - Russia has doubled production of Su-30, Su-34, and Su-35 fighter jets. Uralgavonzavod - a russian heavy machine building company announced it has increased the supply and overhaul of T-72 and T-90 tanks by 3.6 times…. BMP3 (IFV 100mm cannon) up by 2.1, BTR-82A (8wheel APC) up by 4.0, Tigr-M (4x4 Humvee equivalent) up by 2.0 Delvieries of Ka-52 Alligator - up by 2.0 And Mi-28 up by 3.0 And Orlan UAV drones - up by 53 times Drones are the game changer. The story that will not die Video emerged of Prigozhin - reiterating his statement from a few months ago that Wagner will become operational on the 5th August. Russian Advances Karmazynivka - North of Lyman heading towards Kup’yans’k Kreminna to the east of Lyman Advances in kilometers 3.5km - extending a front from kreminna forest to north og Karmazynivka - 65kilometer long. Avdeevka Russians establishing fire control over the roads and beginning to form what might be a pair of pincers. Very heavy fighting. Vremeevka Ledge Video of a Ukraine column advancing, taking very heavy artillery from Russia - however Ukrainins reporting that they were successful in capturing some territory and force russians to step back slightly Odessa Attacks on the ports - Ammunition dumps - first attacks since the grain deal was agreed last year - a sign that the grain deal will end on the 17th July Kherson - Islands - Dneiper river One area of success for Ukraine today - Russians pushed out of the islands near the Antanovsky bridge - however reported UKR losses are heavy - so gaining ground, but this seems to be because Russia are ok to relinquish territory and preserve their troops. Also some clever tactics - video of small drone dropping grenade on a cluster of anti-tank mines laid across a road. 5.9 million - internal displaced 7.9 million - external refugees The Deep404 - analysis of global events. Sister channel to @the3ps TheThirdPartyShow. #deep404

Time Running out Ukraine 11th July 2023 Battle Update Hungry - the last veto standing. Although they have indicated that they will not stop the joining of any other nations, so now that Turkey has dropped their veto - Sweden would appear to be in. Zelensky/NATO - majority of members full support of Ukraine Need to state Ukraine is de facto member at Vilnius Summit in Lithuania. Biden has stated this week that this will not happen. Many are aware that by doing so, NATO would then be compelled to join the conflict with boots on the ground. Politically this could be suicide for many western governments who are already facing internal reluctance to continue supporting Ukraine with their tax dollars. Putting their sons in the firing line is not likely to be well received. The output of this is that Zelensky may well be very deflated come 13th July. Sweden BBC reporting - Turkey says yes to Swedish membership in NATO. Erdogan met with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. NATO General Secretary - Jens Stoltenberg - photographed shaking hands with both men said - He said the Turkish leader would forward Sweden's bid to the parliament in Ankara and "ensure ratification". Erdogan met with Biden earlier in the week and Biden has commented that he hopes to see swift ratification of the decision. Erdogan said…. “First come and open the way for Turkey in the EU; after that we’ll open the way for Sweden just like we did for Finland,” Erdogan told a press conference in Istanbul before leaving for NATO’s summit in Lithuania on Monday. He criticized “countries keeping Turkey waiting at the EU’s door for almost 50 years.” Now the big question is WHY NOW… as Turkey has strongly opposed this previously due to claims that Sweden are housing Kurdish dissidents. There are a lot of theories and I would like to cover some of them off. F-16s apparently US has agreed to supply and supports Turkish ascension to EU… Speaking at a press briefing, State Department Spokesman Matthew Miller said Washington has publicly "supported the provision of F-16s to Türkiye for some time." "We've made that clear publicly that we support it but that there are a number of members of Congress, who as much as we don't believe the issue should be linked with NATO accession, there are members of Congress who believe that it is. And so we always make that clear, privately and publicly," said Miller. He noted Sweden took steps to address Türkiye's concerns, including changing its Constitution and arresting terrorism suspects, and added that the U.S. believes those actions have been sufficient to address the concerns. On Türkiye's EU bid, Miller said the United States has, for a number of years, supported its EU aspirations and "we continue to do so." US pressure It is clear that as a NATO member - Turkey will be under enormous pressure from the US to allow Sweden entry. Turkey/Syria/Russian airforces Images of an attack on a turkish backed Syrian groups fighting against Assad. Some of the forces killed…unclear who launched the attack. This may be part of why Erdogan has agreed to release the 5 Azov commanders back to Ukraine. AZOV Melitipol Azov steel works - prisoner swap - due to nature of Azov commanders (ideology) not popular in Russia - agreement with Erdogan to keep them in Turkey and not allow them to return to Ukraine conflict. I doubt that Turkey did not inform Russia of this decision - Erdogan is too experienced a politician to upset Putin on this topic - I feel Ankara likely discussed this with the Kremlin privately. This one still feels somehow “staged” - as the actual value of this to Ukraine is purely PR - and the affront to Russia (if we believe that Erdogan did not inform Putin prior) is large, for no gain to Turkey. The Sweden deal and TUrkish howitzers were enough to keep NATO/US happy with Turkey. Turkish Howitzers and Ukrainian Drone Factory NATO support required - these check that box Putin finds silver lining Grain deal cancellation has not been confirmed yet - however, now Putin can do this and claim that Turkish decisions to break agreement over Azov is justification. Politically this is good for Putin - so even if Putin did not plan or expect the Azov release, he can still turn this to a positive. As the real impact of those 5 Azov commanders returning to the battle is minimal (there will be russian bounties upon them)... however it makes a great reason for ending the grain deal which Russia have claimed has not worked well for them for months. I’d love to hear in the comments who you think benefits most out of the Azov deal. The Deep404 - analysis of global events. Sister channel to @the3ps TheThirdPartyShow. #deep404

10th July Ukraine Battle Update Simplicius the thinker https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/azov-commanders-return-6th-column?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2 Alexander Mercouris - @AlexMercouris Turkey - Ankara angry that Russia not signing the Grain deal - and are just trying to get in with The West - however, there has been some tension with Russian airforce in Syria attacking Turkish aligned rebel groups - and that Turkey may be retaliating about this. The Syrian conflict is complex and Assad and Ergodan being asked to find a way to stop the agreement - which leaves america as the sole occupying force. Noise from UKR sources that Ergodan has claimed Turkish navy will escort UKR ships to the Bosphorus - but this is unconfirmed and unlikely as Turkey would be silly to do this given the trade impact it would have if they became directly militarily engaged in a dispute with Russia. Ergodan has allegedly told Biden that Turkey wants to revive the EU membership process for Turkey - this may be a quid pro quo for Turkey approving Swedish entry to NATO. TYalked about F-16s Medvedev - Smolensk nuclear plant - alleged missile attack 400kms north Kyiv - 250kms north of Ukr border “If an attempt to attack the Smolensk (Desnogorsk) NPP with NATO missiles is confirmed, it is necessary to consider the scenario of a simultaneous Russian strike on the South Ukrainian NPP, Rivne NPP and Khmelnitsky NPP, as well as on nuclear facilities in Eastern Europe. There is nothing to be ashamed of." Kerch bridge - UKR Storm Shadow? Missile shot down - note that Russia captured one allegedly with flight and control system intact - being reverse engineered 300km so top of line SShadow s-400 - KRAINE amidst responsibility for destroying this last year Ukr losing the fight … "Our source in the General Staff reports that Zaluzhny briefed Zelensky on the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. On the southern front, we are losing 5-7 units of heavy equipment per day, while on the eastern front, the losses reach up to 4 units. ." 10+ units per day heavy equipment (this does not include APCs), 300 a month at this rate - only estimated to have between 600-800 at start of offensive - 200 allegedly already gone in first 5 weeks. More coming 180 Leopard 1, 32 Bradleys, ~32 Strykers and ~30+ M777s Note leopards have tiny punch 105mm , not 155mm and won’t stand a chance against russian armour with HE and AP 155mm rounds And SImplicius the thinker reports that There is one database showing that 110-120 of the total delivered ~150 M777s are now visually confirmed to be destroyed. Alexander Mercouris - reporting that UKR firing 5k per day, Russia firing 40k per day with a stockpile of 9 million - while the west is sending cluster munitions to bridge the gap. Nova Kakhovka reservoir TESTING Our sources reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces were conducting manoeuvres BMPs get buried in the silt and cannot move on their own. best time for a landing operation would be mid-August, when the heat will reach its peak BRICS - August summit - 5 new nations? A new reserve currency - Argentina paying Debt in RMB, India paying for Russian oil in RMB Janet Yellin - not giving a convincing refutation of BRICS ability to diminish US sanction power with GOld backed reserve currency - remember USD is backed by the FED- by a inflation generating money printing machine - not gold Brazil - increase in oil trade with russia - Russia moving from supply 1% to 18% of Brazilian oil Pyongyang - will shoot down US war planes The North Korean military official pointed to the US strategic reconnaissance planes RC-135, U-2S and reconnaissance drone RQ-4B flying in North Korea’s airspace in turn for eight straight days from July 2 to 9 - history here in 1969 31 airmen killed when NKorea shot down an early AWACS craft Poland - 12 Mi-24 helicopters - reported earlier in month but now confirmed Carries 8 - gunship/attack helicopter 67 missiles , cannon on the skid twin barrel 23mm auto cannon Vilnius NATO summit Bristling - 1k soldiers 12 patriot systems - germany 2 squadrons of fighters - germany NASAMS AIr defence - spain CEASAR self propelled artillery - france France, FInland,Denmark - sent Jets to local bases Valeriy Gerasimov Head of Russian General Staff - may have been removed from Ukraine command - still being confirmed but RYbar reporting that Mikhail Teplinskiy currently in command of Ukraine operation Robert Kennedy Junior: against the continuation of the war - as is Trump - puts Joe in a tricky position. DRONES Israeli company Elbit Systems - min-UAVs launched from mother carrier - The Deep404 - analysis of global events. Sister channel to @the3ps TheThirdPartyShow. #deep404