Ukraine's Offensive at 1 Month - Losing the War of Attrition

Update on the conflict in Ukraine for July 3, 2023:Show more

- Ukraine’s offensive reaches the 1 month mark and has made relatively little progress beyond the security zones ahead of Russia’s main defenses;

- This is mainly owed to Russian mine fields and Ukraine’s inability to clear them while under fire;

- Ukraine’s artillery shell supply is limited, the longer the offensive takes, the less ammunition Ukraine will have to support and exploit any breakthroughs that do occur;

- Mounting Ukrainian losses mean that any achievements made during the offensive will be difficult to consolidate no matter where on the map the offensive ends;

- Unable to breach Russian defenses, Ukraine and its NATO sponsors appear to be exploring “alternative” options to change battlefield dynamics including continued attempts to accuse Russia of planning to destroy the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant;

References:

NY Times - Defenses Carved Into the Earth (December 2022):
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/14/world/europe/russian-trench-fortifications-in-ukraine.html
Washington Post - Ukraine’s top general, Valery Zaluzhny, wants shells, planes and patience (June 30, 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/30/valery-zaluzhny-ukraine-general-interview/
CSIS - Russia Isn’t Going to Run Out of Missiles (June 28, 2023):
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russia-isnt-going-run-out-missiles#:~:text=As%20early%20as%20March%202022,its%20“special%20military%20operation.”
Forbes - Borrowing Tactics From The U.S. Army, The Ukrainian Marine Corps Is Thundering Through Russian Lines In Fast-Moving Columns (June 13, 2023):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/06/13/borrowing-tactics-from-the-us-army-the-ukrainian-marine-corps-is-thundering-through-russian-lines-in-fast-moving-columns/?sh=382d02d25fb6
Forbes - 25 Tanks And Fighting Vehicles, Gone In A Blink: The Ukrainian Defeat Near Mala Tokmachka Was Worst Than We Thought (June 27, 2023):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/06/27/25-tanks-and-fighting-vehicles-gone-in-a-blink-the-ukrainian-defeat-near-mala-tokmachka-was-worst-than-we-thought/?sh=1aeb1c479188
The Wall Street Journal - Ukraine Hits Russian Defenses From a Distance Before Risking Troops (June 30, 2023):
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/ukraine-hits-russian-defenses-from-a-distance-before-risking-troops-26cd2502
The Journal of Conventional Weapons Destruction - Mine Field Breaching in Desert Storm:
https://commons.lib.jmu.edu/cisr-journal/vol5/iss3/9/
Military.com - The 'Bulldozer Assault' of Desert Storm Saw the US Army Opt Out of Trench Warfare:
https://www.military.com/history/bulldozer-assault-of-desert-storm-saw-us-army-opt-out-of-trench-warfare.html
WSJ - Ukraine Hits Russian Defenses From a Distance Before Risking Troops:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-hits-russian-defenses-from-a-distance-before-risking-troops-26cd2502
Washington Post - Ukraine’s top general, Valery Zaluzhny, wants shells, planes and patience (June 30, 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/30/valery-zaluzhny-ukraine-general-interview/
The Guardian - Russia reducing its presence at nuclear plant, says Ukraine (June 30, 2023):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/30/russia-has-approved-plan-blow-up-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-claims-ukraine
Andrei Martyanov - Logistics, Logistics, Logistics:
https://youtu.be/Nq4L7NxFXQU

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