Ukraine: Demilitarisation Update March 27, 2023

Tactics, Arms & Ammo What Will Shape Ukraine's Offensive & Impact its Aftermath

Update on Russian military operations in Ukraine for March 27, 2023;
- Russian forces are not only encircling the fortified cities of Bakhmut and Avdeevka, it is increasingly utilizing its military aviation to bomb fortified positions;

- Increased use of Russian military aviation may indicate an irreversible deterioration of Ukrainian air defense networks and may continue to expand, accelerating the demilitarization of Ukraine;

- Ukraine's offensive may be directed toward the south or east, however, Russia has created extensive defense networks in both directions;

- Because of the West's dwindling stockpiles of weapons and ammunition, Ukraine's offensive, no matter how successful, will end with Ukraine unable to sustain military operations or maintain territorial gains;

- Russia bringing in older tanks and makeshift mobile gun platforms may be used to eliminate weaknesses in Russian defenses, saturating the battlefield with additional firepower to prevent Ukrainian forces from making it through zones of fire;

- Russian military industrial output is greater than Ukraine's Western sponsors, and therefore gives Russia the advantage in shaping the conflict after Ukraine's offensive ends;

References:

BBC - Ukraine war: UK defends sending depleted uranium shells after Putin warning (March 22, 2023):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65032671
AP - Russia’s security chief blasts West, dangles nuclear threats (March 24, 2023):
https://apnews.com/article/medvedev-nuclear-putin-arrest-warrant-germany-ukraine-6dcde92e06f41a7c5cb7386f7939df33
Novaya Gazeta - The Barren Barrels (November 2022):
https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022/11/02/the-barren-barrels-en#:~:text=Handmade%20tanks,200–250%20tanks%20a%20year
CNN - West to deliver 321 tanks to Ukraine, says diplomat, as North Korea accuses US of ‘crossing the red line’ (January 2023):
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/27/world/ukraine-tanks-western-allies-intl-hnk/index.html
Statista - Number of disclosed main battle tanks committed to Ukraine between January 24 and January 15, 2023, by type and donor country:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1364974/ukraine-military-aid-tanks/
Alexander Mercouris - Russia Presses Bakhmut Avdeevka, Furious on UK DU Shells; China Russia Mutual Defence Pact (March 23, 2023):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19Jy-59j7l8&t=1866s
Washington Post - Wounded Ukrainian soldiers reveal steep toll of Kherson offensive (September 2022):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/07/ukraine-kherson-offensive-casualties-ammunition/
US Army Fort Benning - Defeating the Russian Battalion Tactical Group:
https://www.benning.army.mil/armor/earmor/content/issues/2017/spring/2Fiore17.pdf

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