Ukraine's Possible Bakhmut Counteroffensive + What Poland's Military Build-Up Means

Update on conflict in Ukraine for March 13, 2023;

- Bakhmut continues to be encircled by Russian forces;

- The Western media is reporting conflicting claims by Ukraine and Russia regarding steep losses inflicted on opposing sides;

- The West claims Ukraine is inflicting huge losses on Russian forces and that Bakhmut has little strategic value;

- The Western media, however, also admits Ukraine is outgunned between 3:1 to 4:1 in terms of artillery and despite claims that Russia has lost 20,000-30,000 troops around Bakhmut alone, the BBC’s own project verifying Russian losses says as of March 2023 Russia’s 1 year total losses stand at 16,000;

- A counteroffensive by Ukraine may lead to temporary gains, just as in Aleppo, Syria in 2016, however the fundamentals leading to Bakhmut’s encirclement have not been addressed, therefore any gains risk being reversed;

- A Ukrainian counteroffensive on any major scale will divert troops meant for Kiev’s spring offensive, diminishing the combat potential of other upcoming offensives;

- Poland’s military build-up is being hyped by the Western media, however Polish ambitions would see the creation of a military force roughly the size of Ukraine’s military at the beginning of 2022;

- Poland’s build-up will take years to complete;

References:

Live UA Map:
https://liveuamap.com/
BBC - Ukraine war: Heavy losses reported as battle for Bakhmut rages (March 13, 2023):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64935449
Kyiv Independent - Media: Public data suggests over 16,000 Russian soldiers have been killed during first year of all-out war (March 4, 2023):
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/media-public-data-suggests-over-16-000-russian-soldiers-have-been-killed-during-first-year-of-all-out-war
Washington Post - Opinion Biden must follow Roosevelt’s ‘arsenal of democracy’ example (March 6, 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/03/06/ukraine-weapons-us-allies/
Financial Times - Ukraine asks EU for 250,000 artillery shells a month (March 2023):
https://www.ft.com/content/75ee9701-aa93-4c5d-a1bc-7a51422280fd
The Economist - Rebels break the siege of Aleppo, but at a cost (2016):
https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2016/08/09/rebels-break-the-siege-of-aleppo-but-at-a-cost
The Telegraph - Poland builds Europe’s largest land force to counter Russian threat (March 11, 2023):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/03/11/revolution-polish-army-builds-europes-largest-land-force/
The Telegraph - A Russian victory in Bakhmut would be a costly strategic defeat for Putin (March 7, 2023):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/03/07/russian-victory-bakhmut-would-costly-strategic-defeat-putin/

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