The Limits of Ukraine's Offensive and the High Price to Pay When it Ends

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Update on Russian operations in Ukraine for October 5, 2022

- Latest US aid package falls far short of replacing steep Ukrainian losses amid continued offensives;
- Ukraine’s offensive has limited capabilities, will not achieve “victory” over Russian forces in territory deemed “Ukrainian” by Kiev;
- Ukrainian offensive is an “all-or-nothing” proposition, hoping to achieve psychological and political gains toward ending the conflict in ways Ukrainian military force cannot;
- Western analysts celebrate the psychological impact the offensive is having on pro-Russian media, pundits, and even prominent members of Russian society;
- In reality, Ukraine will be left overextended and vulnerable just as Russia’s 300,000-strong mobilization begins shaping the battlefield.

References:

US Department of Defense - $625 Million in Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine Oct. 4, 2022:
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3179323/625-million-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
US DoD - Pentagon Press Secretary Brigadier General Pat Ryder and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Laura K. Cooper Hold a Press Briefing Oct. 4, 2022:
https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3179889/pentagon-press-secretary-brigadier-general-pat-ryder-and-deputy-assistant-secre/
Washington Post - Wounded Ukrainian soldiers reveal steep toll of Kherson offensive:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/07/ukraine-kherson-offensive-casualties-ammunition/
NY Times - In Ukraine’s South, Fierce Fighting and Deadly Costs:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/24/world/europe/ukraine-south-kherson-russia.html
Business Insider - The US has given Ukraine nearly 1 million 155 mm artillery shells. Now it's looking for US companies to build more of them.:
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-wants-to-build-artillery-shells-as-it-supplies-ukraine-2022-9

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