2 years ago

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Update for Russian Operations in Ukraine for April 25, 2022

- Russia continues to make gains in south and eastern Ukraine;
- Russia is concentrating additional forces in these regions;
- US has sent 50 million rounds of small arms ammunition to Ukraine;
- this is not enough to sustain combat operations in a modern armed conflict;
- US officials and media struggle to match previously optimistic reports on Ukraine’s military operations versus the reality now taking shape on the battlefield;
- Western “analysts” are producing war propaganda which may help explain why the Western media’s messaging is so divergent from reality;
- Ukraine is being used by the West as a proxy against Russia and signs of it being disposed of like Afghanistan, Libya, and other Western-sponsored opposition movements in the past are beginning to appear;
- Austria’s foreign minister has outright said he would prefer Ukraine did not join the EU.

References:

US Department of Defense - Pentagon Secretary John F. Kirby Holds a Press Briefing, April 22, 2022:
https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3008806/pentagon-secretary-john-f-kirby-holds-a-press-briefing/
Independent Institute - If You Miss the First Time, Try Firing Another 300,000 Rounds:
https://www.independent.org/news/article.asp?id=2003
Small Arms Survey - Beyond the Kalashnikov: Small Arms Production, Exports, and Stockpiles in the Russian Federation (2003):
https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.174.6574&rep=rep1&type=pdf
Small Arms Survey - Surveying Europe’s Production and Procurement of Small Arms and Light Weapons Ammunition (2010):
https://www.smallarmssurvey.org/sites/default/files/resources/SAS-WP10-European-Ammunition.pdf
WSJ - U.S. Asks Allies to Provide Ammunition to Ukraine to Avoid Stock Shortage:
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-04-19/card/u-s-asks-allies-to-provide-ammunition-to-ukraine-to-avoid-stock-shortage-Y5ZEGZOdkjWJw8G6af24
Daily Beast - They Want to Fight for Ukraine. They Just Need Guns:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/these-ukrainians-want-to-fight-against-vladimir-putin-they-just-need-guns
The Hill - Here’s everything the US is sending to Ukraine’s military:
https://thehill.com/policy/international/598524-heres-everything-the-us-is-sending-to-ukraines-military/?rl=1
Institute for the Study of War - Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 23:
http://www.iswresearch.org/2022/04/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment_23.html
Critical Threats - Frederick Kagan:
https://www.criticalthreats.org/team/frederick-w-kagan
ISW - Karolina Hird;
https://www.understandingwar.org/press-media/staff-bios/karolina-hird
ISW - Kateryna Stepanenko;
https://www.understandingwar.org/press-media/staff-bios/kateryna-stepanenko
Washington Post - Russia has killed civilians in Ukraine. Kyiv’s defense tactics add to the danger.:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/28/ukraine-kyiv-russia-civilians/
Guardian - Dozens of Bucha civilians were killed by metal darts from Russian artillery:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/24/dozens-bucha-civilians-killed-flechettes-metal-darts-russian-artillery
AFP - Surgeons in Ukraine's rebel Donetsk confirm cluster bomb usage (2014):
https://news.yahoo.com/surgeons-ukraines-rebel-donetsk-confirm-cluster-bomb-usage-205747600.html

ABC (Australia) - Ukraine 'disappointed' as Austria says besieged nation shouldn't be offered EU membership:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-25/austria-ukraine-eu-membership/101012486

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