realdrjlt

I describe the events that have led to today's de facto proxy war in Eastern Europe. Then, I present my take on the likely insurgency in the region. Effectively, while gorilla-type insurgency is possible if Western UA became part of the occupied zone (by its neighbors to the west or to the east), the more likely outcome would be a combination of subversions, assassinations, and terrorist attacks in and around the region.

I present my view on the Chinese housing market in 2022. Many aspects of this discussion can be applied to other bubbly real estate markets, which can now be found just about everywhere. I first point to 9 factors that influence housing prices: 3 market factors that push prices down + 3 non-market factors that wish prices to rise + 3 market factors that are neutral. I then present 3 risks in sustaining the bubble. Finally, I argue that the most likely outcome is price control and prolonged depression in the housing market. My telegram channel: https://t.me/realdrjlt

In this podcast, I discuss four issues that many economic migrants, notably those from China, are unaware of. Two of these are policy-driven, and two of them are socioeconomic: 1. Bail-ins 2. Internment camps 3. Cultural animosities 4. The employment situation My telegram channel: https://t.me/realdrjlt

As a continuation of the discussion I had in #55, I ask the question whether by triggering a collapse in the financial markets the US can keep #inflation in check. I present 1 argument for and 2 arguments against this proposition. I also suggest what I think #realEstate and #gold could act in this environment.

Russia is not engaged in a "maneuver warfare", which was pioneered by the Prussians and perfected in WW2 by the Wehrmacht and the Red Army. In this podcast, I discuss what maneuver warfare, or Bewegungskrieg, is, give some examples of it in practice in WW2, and comment on why the Russians are not engaging in it in UA. This is in response to a point frequently raised by independent commentators such as Scott Ritter. This podcast is posted on YT, Rumble, and Odysee. My telegram channel: https://t.me/realdrjlt

As the #Fed raises rate by 0.5% and #USD strengthens over the weeks in relation to major #fiat currencies, I lay out three mechanisms that the Americans may keep USD relatively strong: 1. EUR, JPY, GBP have worse fundamentals 2. Fed / US Gov could prick the bubble in its financial markets 3. US Gov can default on its debt (masqueraded as sanctions) I see 3-5 years of relative strength before eventual weakening. The turning point will be the collapse of the Euro. This doesn't mean there won't be high levels of inflation. "Strength" is only relative in a fiat world. Real assets (not even real estate, which has been subject of speculation) will be where wealth could be preserved. My telegram channel: https://t.me/realdrjlt

In this podcast, I present 5 reasons why recession will be deep and long in the collective west: 1. High and rising inflation 2. Monetary stimulus never works 3. Military adventurism 4. Pessimism sets in 5. Competitors come in for the kill My telegram: https://t.me/realdrjlt

In this podcast, I present my take on how four major economies would perform post de-dollarization. First, I recapitulate my take on the reasons and processes of de-dollarization. I point to Triffin Dilemma and suggest that fiat currency cannot be a credible global reserve currency. I further suggest that gold is unlikely to be adopted, and that BTC is unsuitable. Then, I run through my take on how the Chinese, Russian, European, and American economies may perform after de-dollarization. My telegram channel: https://t.me/realdrjlt

In this podcast, I attempt to understand the (mis-)calculations of the three main parties in the current conflict. I start by stating that 1. the Russians are rational, and 2. the Russians didn't exhaust their political options before launching this operation. I point out that this seemingly irrational "escalatory ladder" could be explained by the closing time window for the US to commit to another conflict in a different theatre: In short, desperate times demand desperate measures; if a defeat of RU is impossible, weaken it before the main battle is an acceptable outcome. Lastly, I suggest one rational explanation of EU's fervor in this conflict: In short, it is better to bet everything on a 10% chance of winning than to accept 100% change of losing everything without a fight.

I argue in this podcast that globalization has been a process where Globalists / Neo-colonists: 1. deindustrialize the West, widen its wealth gap, and create a virtual economy (to quote Prof Michael Hudson, "replacing industrial capitalism with financial capitalism") 2. "colonize" the East, extract cheap labor and resources, and install oligarchy and autocracy. China has been a rare exception, while UA has been worst hit Hence, de-globalization will not lead to re-industrialization of the West. Rather, we'll see economic turmoil and further declining competitiveness. In other words, "de-globalization" doesn't mean two worlds separated. It simply means a de-dollarized, de-colonized, "fairer" economic system, where the West must compete on productivity without the accounting / financial tricks. I foresee Western Europe becoming the Argentina of the 21st century. This podcast is available on YouTube, Odysee, and Rumble. You can find my telegram channel t.me/realdrjlt (unfortunately, I didn't know that TG deletes your account if you don't use it for 6 months).

In this podcast, I make two points on the economic and social carnage of hybrid wars: 1. The carnage is more widespread in a hybrid war than it is in a conventional war. 2. The enemies are less defined in a hybrid war, and collateral damage can be high and unexpected.

In this update, I cover three separate but somewhat related macroeconomic issues: 1. Inflation has reached record levels in the Eurozone. Things will get worse until the euro is no longer with us. 2. China's housing bubble is getting harder to sustain, though PBOC continues to print money and keep a low interest rate to keep it from deflating. 3. EU will likely insist on paying euros for Russian gas until the mood in the EU public changes. Russia will then offer them a face-saving way to buy gas with rubles.

As Russia starts the 2nd phase of its operations in UA, we have enough information to start analyzing what its end game may be. In this podcast, I list 5 facts and discuss 3 possible end games: 1. Minima: Donbas independence + Crimea recognized + UA neutral, demilitarized + UA deradicalized 2. Mid: Above + Land bridge to Transnistria 3. Maxima: Above + Kharkov + Dnipro + UA can join EU + Poland may annex WUA I suggest that Russia may take it slow but eventually reach No.3. There won't be a negotiated political solution, but there'll be a ceasefire. I'll revisit this topic in 1 month if the conflict continues then (it most likely will).

The 5th French Republic is in trouble. In this podcast, I discuss its problems, red herrings, solutions, and prognosis. Problems: 1. Bureaucracy 2. Institutionalized corruption 3. Foreign influence (EU, NATO, US) Red herrings: 1. Immigrants 2. Russia, China Solutions: 1. Get out of EU, NATO 2. Cut bureaucracy and improve competitiveness 3. Get rid of institutionalized corruption Prognosis: Not happening this election cycle. Macron will win, and things will get worse before it gets better.

The contrast between the leadership in Russia and Germany cannot be more stark. In this podcast, I compare the two and discuss the underlying causes of this difference. Comparison: 1. Russia prepares for difficulties: Germany expects good days to last forever 2. Russia protects its interests: Germany surrenders its interests to Washington, Brussels, and Brussels 3. Russia makes friends: Germany virtue signals 4. When Russia makes a "mistake", it helps Russia: When Germany makes a mistake, it devastates Germany

The 5th French Republic is in trouble. In this podcast, I discuss its problems, red herrings, solutions, and prognosis. Problems: 1. Bureaucracy 2. Institutionalized corruption 3. Foreign influence (EU, NATO, US) Red herrings: 1. Immigrants 2. Russia, China Solutions: 1. Get out of EU, NATO 2. Cut bureaucracy and improve competitiveness 3. Get rid of institutionalized corruption Prognosis: Not happening this election cycle. Macron will win, and things will get worse before it gets better.

The contrast between the leadership in Russia and Germany cannot be more stark. In this podcast, I compare the two and discuss the underlying causes of this difference. Comparison: 1. Russia prepares for difficulties: Germany expects good days to last forever 2. Russia protects its interests: Germany surrenders its interests to Washington, Brussels, and Brussels 3. Russia makes friends: Germany virtue signals 4. When Russia makes a "mistake", it helps Russia: When Germany makes a mistake, it devastates Germany

This podcast is about the belligerent yet incompetent "leaders" in the west. I discuss 1. what their M.O. are, 2. how to counter them, and 3. what the foreseeable escalations are. MO: a. Postmodernist discourse (lying against facts) b. Moral pitch c. Thinly-veiled threats d. Un-cunning deceits / schemes e. Financial corruption f. Lack of commitment and courage Counter: a. Stick to facts b. Call their bluffs c. Cut them off financially d. Prepared to fight for peace Escalations: a. Proxy war in EE b. Sanctions against CN c. Open 3rd front in ME d. TW independence I also mention unpopular views and examples in this podcast. I condemn these views, but they reflect rational analyses of the geopolitical and economic realities.

This podcast is about the belligerent yet incompetent "leaders" in the west. I discuss 1. what their M.O. are, 2. how to counter them, and 3. what the foreseeable escalations are. MO: a. Postmodernist discourse (lying against facts) b. Moral pitch c. Thinly-veiled threats d. Un-cunning deceits / schemes e. Financial corruption f. Lack of commitment and courage Counter: a. Stick to facts b. Call their bluffs c. Cut them off financially d. Prepared to fight for peace Escalations: a. Proxy war in EE b. Sanctions against CN c. Open 3rd front in ME d. TW independence I also mention unpopular views and examples in this podcast. I condemn these views, but they reflect rational analyses of the geopolitical and economic realities.

Recently, there have been chatters on a EU Superfund that skim the pension funds of member states to fund two sets of EU-wide political projects: a. EU army, and b. Energy. In this podcast, I discuss the details and implications of this move. Politically, this is easier to push through than new taxes. It is essentially a slush fund without accountability. Future outlooks: 1. This superfunds SPENDS, rather than invests. However, with negative interest rates and the statuary requirement to invest in government bonds, the pension funds have been in the red all along. 2. Europe can be militarized, which can cause some trouble in the region; however, I argue that the impacts will not be global. 3. Pensioners living on fixed income will be left with the shaft. Global implications: A. US win: more arms sales + more wealth flowing in B. EU population loss C. Rest of the World must learn never to surrender their lives to a supranational, unaccountable organization, whether you believe in democracy or not. This podcast is available also on Odysee and Rumble.

Recently, there have been chatters on a EU Superfund that skim the pension funds of member states to fund two sets of EU-wide political projects: a. EU army, and b. Energy. In this podcast, I discuss the details and implications of this move. Politically, this is easier to push through than new taxes. It is essentially a slush fund without accountability. Future outlooks: 1. This superfunds SPENDS, rather than invests. However, with negative interest rates and the statuary requirement to invest in government bonds, the pension funds have been in the red all along. 2. Europe can be militarized, which can cause some trouble in the region; however, I argue that the impacts will not be global. 3. Pensioners living on fixed income will be left with the shaft. Global implications: A. US win: more arms sales + more wealth flowing in B. EU population loss C. Rest of the World must learn never to surrender their lives to a supranational, unaccountable organization, whether you believe in democracy or not. This podcast is available also on Odysee and Rumble.

In a previous podcast, I suggested two triggers that would lead the world to de-dollarize. In the weeks since I posted it, both became reality. In this podcast, I discuss the actions that countries are taking, the potential solution to establish an alternative system, and the global impact of de-dollarization. Actions: a. Eurasian Economic Union + China start investigating the setup of an alternative international monetary system b. Saudi Arabia studies the possibility of selling oil in Chinese Yuan c. Russia proposes to sell oil to India in Rupees Solution: I suggest a global trade system based on reserves of commodities and gold, without a fiat currency acting as the anchor. Bi-lateral trades can be settled in a range of major currencies. I suggest Hong Kong to be the candidate for a clearing house for this new monetary system. Global Impacts: 1. Asset price collapse, notably stocks, bonds, and real estate 2. Difficulties in global trade lasting 2 to 5 years 3. Euro disappears in 2 to 5 years 4. Social tension in the US becomes a real issue that must be addressed You can also find me on Rumble and Odysee.

In a previous podcast, I suggested two triggers that would lead the world to de-dollarize. In the weeks since I posted it, both became reality. In this podcast, I discuss the actions that countries are taking, the potential solution to establish an alternative system, and the global impact of de-dollarization. Actions: a. Eurasian Economic Union + China start investigating the setup of an alternative international monetary system b. Saudi Arabia studies the possibility of selling oil in Chinese Yuan c. Russia proposes to sell oil to India in Rupees Solution: I suggest a global trade system based on reserves of commodities and gold, without a fiat currency acting as the anchor. Bi-lateral trades can be settled in a range of major currencies. I suggest Hong Kong to be the candidate for a clearing house for this new monetary system. Global Impacts: 1. Asset price collapse, notably stocks, bonds, and real estate 2. Difficulties in global trade lasting 2 to 5 years 3. Euro disappears in 2 to 5 years 4. Social tension in the US becomes a real issue that must be addressed You can also find me on Rumble and Odysee.

After viewing a panel on recent events with Prof John Mearsheimer & Mr Ray McGovern, I venture to discuss and understand the interactivity between realists and ideologues in the US / West. First, I lay out the points made by the two speakers, who represent the realists camp. Their main thesis is that the US / West is committing a strategic error in Europe. Second, I discuss the points raised by the more ideological moderator and the audience. Their main points include 1. US should support democracy and self-determination globally, 2. US should fight for the democracy and self-determination of others, and 3. no country should be guaranteed a buffer zone (presumably against the democracy and self-determination of the locals). I rebuke them one by one, specifically pointing out that the interjection of an external force is by definition anti-democratic and violates the self-determination of the locals. Third, I make the arguments that some of the "ideologues" are not really ideological. They're indeed "realists" who hold the specific brand of realism; they use ideology as an excuse to sell attractive values. Lastly, I go over the two areas where escalations have already been made, economy and information. I point out that, even though American realists are bound by their specific circumstances, they are the ones that will save us from end-of-civilization events. You can also find my podcasts on Rumble and Odysee. My website is https://drjlt.com, where I'll post the links.

After viewing a panel on recent events with Prof John Mearsheimer & Mr Ray McGovern, I venture to discuss and understand the interactivity between realists and ideologues in the US / West. First, I lay out the points made by the two speakers, who represent the realists camp. Their main thesis is that the US / West is committing a strategic error in Europe. Second, I discuss the points raised by the more ideological moderator and the audience. Their main points include 1. US should support democracy and self-determination globally, 2. US should fight for the democracy and self-determination of others, and 3. no country should be guaranteed a buffer zone (presumably against the democracy and self-determination of the locals). I rebuke them one by one, specifically pointing out that the interjection of an external force is by definition anti-democratic and violates the self-determination of the locals. Third, I make the arguments that some of the "ideologues" are not really ideological. They're indeed "realists" who hold the specific brand of realism; they use ideology as an excuse to sell attractive values. Lastly, I go over the two areas where escalations have already been made, economy and information. I point out that, even though American realists are bound by their specific circumstances, they are the ones that will save us from end-of-civilization events. You can also find my podcasts on Rumble and Odysee. My website is https://drjlt.com, where I'll post the links.