Russian Ops in Ukraine (June 9, 2022): Russian Gains, Ukrainian Grain, Kiev Admits Losses
Russian continues to make gains in the Donbas region, including in the contested city of Severodonetsk and toward Slovyansk.
Meanwhile, Ukraine insists on conditions regarding its own grain shipments, and while the Western media continues to blame Russia for "blockading" Odessa port, these same sources also admit Ukrainian naval mines are what's actually obstructing commercial shipping.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky admits Ukrainian forces are incapable of advancing on Russian positions and possesses inferior equipment as Ukrainian losses continue to mount and as the Western media has greater difficulty hiding these losses.
References:
Guardian - Russia and the west compete to secure safe passage for Ukraine’s grain:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/02/russia-and-the-west-compete-to-secure-safe-passage-for-ukraines-grain
Financial Times (YouTube) - Volodymyr Zelenskyy: ‘No one is humiliating Ukraine. They are killing us’:
https://youtu.be/zo3a0iLE_0s
Jackson Hinkle (YouTube) - Ukrainian COMMANDER Defects To Russia, Russia ADVANCES In Donbas:
https://youtu.be/36tWoOEoCVw
For Detailed Economic/Political Coverage of the Ukraine Crisis...
The Duran (YouTube):
https://www.youtube.com/c/TheDuran/videos
Alex Christoforou (YouTube):
https://www.youtube.com/c/AlexChristoforou/videos
Alexander Mercouris (YouTube):
https://www.youtube.com/c/AlexanderMercourisReal/videos
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The New Atlas LIVE: The Duran on Ukraine's Offensive, NATO's Plan B + More...
Follow Alex and Alexander of The Duran for daily updates regarding Ukraine:
Alexander Mercouris: https://www.youtube.com/@AlexMercouris
Alex Christoforou: https://www.youtube.com/@AlexChristoforou
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New Atlas LIVE is a weekly stream for discussing current events, connecting with the New Atlas community, and more.
Q&A is open the entire time, please write "QUESTION" or "Q" and then your question so we can more easily spot it.
We do not do super chats or monetize YouTube videos, if you would like to contribute, please check out the following options below:
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Ukraine's Offensive at 1 Month - Losing the War of Attrition
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for July 3, 2023:
- Ukraine’s offensive reaches the 1 month mark and has made relatively little progress beyond the security zones ahead of Russia’s main defenses;
- This is mainly owed to Russian mine fields and Ukraine’s inability to clear them while under fire;
- Ukraine’s artillery shell supply is limited, the longer the offensive takes, the less ammunition Ukraine will have to support and exploit any breakthroughs that do occur;
- Mounting Ukrainian losses mean that any achievements made during the offensive will be difficult to consolidate no matter where on the map the offensive ends;
- Unable to breach Russian defenses, Ukraine and its NATO sponsors appear to be exploring “alternative” options to change battlefield dynamics including continued attempts to accuse Russia of planning to destroy the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant;
References:
NY Times - Defenses Carved Into the Earth (December 2022):
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/14/world/europe/russian-trench-fortifications-in-ukraine.html
Washington Post - Ukraine’s top general, Valery Zaluzhny, wants shells, planes and patience (June 30, 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/30/valery-zaluzhny-ukraine-general-interview/
CSIS - Russia Isn’t Going to Run Out of Missiles (June 28, 2023):
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russia-isnt-going-run-out-missiles#:~:text=As%20early%20as%20March%202022,its%20“special%20military%20operation.”
Forbes - Borrowing Tactics From The U.S. Army, The Ukrainian Marine Corps Is Thundering Through Russian Lines In Fast-Moving Columns (June 13, 2023):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/06/13/borrowing-tactics-from-the-us-army-the-ukrainian-marine-corps-is-thundering-through-russian-lines-in-fast-moving-columns/?sh=382d02d25fb6
Forbes - 25 Tanks And Fighting Vehicles, Gone In A Blink: The Ukrainian Defeat Near Mala Tokmachka Was Worst Than We Thought (June 27, 2023):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/06/27/25-tanks-and-fighting-vehicles-gone-in-a-blink-the-ukrainian-defeat-near-mala-tokmachka-was-worst-than-we-thought/?sh=1aeb1c479188
The Wall Street Journal - Ukraine Hits Russian Defenses From a Distance Before Risking Troops (June 30, 2023):
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/ukraine-hits-russian-defenses-from-a-distance-before-risking-troops-26cd2502
The Journal of Conventional Weapons Destruction - Mine Field Breaching in Desert Storm:
https://commons.lib.jmu.edu/cisr-journal/vol5/iss3/9/
Military.com - The 'Bulldozer Assault' of Desert Storm Saw the US Army Opt Out of Trench Warfare:
https://www.military.com/history/bulldozer-assault-of-desert-storm-saw-us-army-opt-out-of-trench-warfare.html
WSJ - Ukraine Hits Russian Defenses From a Distance Before Risking Troops:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-hits-russian-defenses-from-a-distance-before-risking-troops-26cd2502
Washington Post - Ukraine’s top general, Valery Zaluzhny, wants shells, planes and patience (June 30, 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/30/valery-zaluzhny-ukraine-general-interview/
The Guardian - Russia reducing its presence at nuclear plant, says Ukraine (June 30, 2023):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/30/russia-has-approved-plan-blow-up-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-claims-ukraine
Andrei Martyanov - Logistics, Logistics, Logistics:
https://youtu.be/Nq4L7NxFXQU
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West Admits Ukraine is Losing, Little Can Be Done to Change this Fact
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for November 13, 2023…
- Ukraine is losing its conflict with Russia according to a growing list of metrics reported on by the Western media;
- This includes the net loss of territory despite a 5 month offensive;
- Ukraine and its Western backers are losing in terms of military industrial production;
- Ukraine is also losing in qualitative terms, admittedly being outfought in the air, through electronic warfare, and counter-battery operations;
- The collective West has no plan even being discussed that can reverse any of these factors;
References:
Newsweek - Ukraine Map Shows Avdiivka Almost Fully Encircled by Russia's 40K Troops (November 10, 2023):
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-map-avdiivka-russia-troops-counteroffensive-1842601
France24 - The Dnipro River, a key front line between Russian and Ukrainian troops (November 10, 2023):
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231110-the-dnipro-river-a-rampart-winding-through-ukraine-war
RAND Corporation - Extending Russia, Competing from Advantageous Ground (2019):
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html
The Telegraph - Ukraine’s army is running out of men to recruit, and time to win (August 2023):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/08/22/ukraines-army-is-running-out-of-men-to-recruit/
Mediazona - Russian casualties in Ukraine. Mediazona count, updated (November 3, 2023):
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng
Business Insider - Ukraine official says it can't properly use its Western kit because it has so few soldiers left, report says (October 31, 2023):
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-cant-use-western-weapons-due-to-soldier-shortage-report-2023-10
The Washington Post - Ukraine short of skilled troops and munitions as losses, pessimism grow (March 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/13/ukraine-casualties-pessimism-ammunition-shortage/
New York TImes - Who’s Gaining Ground in Ukraine? This Year, No One (September 2023):
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/09/28/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-map-front-line.html
Reuters - Ukrainian refugees: how will the economy recover with a diminished population? (July 2023):
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/however-war-ends-ukraines-diminished-population-will-hit-economy-years-2023-07-07/
NBC News - U.S., European officials broach topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine, sources say (Nov 4, 2023):
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/us-european-officials-broach-topic-peace-negotiations-ukraine-sources-rcna123628
Mark Sleboda on Substack - Kiev Regime General Zaluzhny Tells the Economist What He Needs to Win - "Wunderwaffe" Future Miracle Weapons and his own equivalent Russian Army, the Future of War, more… (November 4, 2023):
https://marksleboda.substack.com/p/kiev-regime-general-zaluzhny-tells#details
Simplicius The Thinker on Substack - Zaluzhny Pens Oped for The Economist: "How to Win the War" - Analysis (November 4, 2023):
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/zaluzhny-pens-oped-for-the-economist?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
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Russian Gains, US Gears Up for Crimea Escalation, US Proxies Strike China/Pakistan in Train Bombing
Update on Russian-Ukrainian conflict for January 23, 2023 + Pakistan train bombing as part of US proxy war on China.
- Russian forces are reportedly advancing in Zaporozhye while Ukraine continues losing ground around Bakhmut;
- Russian pushes in Zaporozhye could be (1) recon in force, (2) extending existing security zone ahead of actual Russian front line or (3) spoiling attacks on forces assembling for a future offensive;
- Ukrainian losses are severe and Reuters is reporting on supposed warnings by the US to Ukraine about going on the offensive;
- Weapon shipments have been announced for Ukraine including a significant US DoD package, as well as all of Denmark’s Caesar self-propelled howitzers and all of Estonia’s FH-70 towed howitzers;
- A recent bombing targeting a train in southwest Pakistan is part of a long-term proxy conflict waged by Washington against China and its Belt and Road partners;
- The US has promoted separatism in Pakistan’s southwest region of Baluchistan for years specifically to block Chinese-Pakistani cooperation and development;
References:
Russian-Ukrainian Conflict
New York Times - U.S. Warms to Helping Ukraine Target Crimea:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/18/us/politics/ukraine-crimea-military.html
Lt General Mark Hertling (retired), Twitter - M1 Abrams Ukraine thread:
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1616792744135098370
Modern War Institute at West Point - Mark Hertling biography:
https://mwi.usma.edu/mark-hertling/
US Department of Defense - Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and General Mark A. Milley Press Conference Following Ukraine Defense Contact Group Meeting, Ramstein Air Base, Germany Jan. 20, 2023:
https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3273771/secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-and-general-mark-a-milley-press-confere/
BBC - Ukraine war: Germany won't block export of its Leopard 2 tanks, foreign minister says:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64370165
Reuters - U.S. officials advise Ukraine to wait on offensive, official says:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-officials-advise-ukraine-wait-offensive-official-says-2023-01-20/
Alexander Mercouris - Russia Advance Bakhmut Siversk Zaporozhye; US Tells Ukraine It is Losing Attrition War Leave Bakhmut:
https://youtu.be/JAyShGaNj-8
ABC News (Australia) - Almost 180,000 Russians dead or wounded in Ukraine, Norwegian general says:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-23/russia-180000-dead-wounded-soldiers-ukraine-conflict-norway/101883272
The Moscow Times - ‘Record’ 1,000 Russian Soldiers Confirmed Killed in Ukraine Since Jan. 1 – Analysis:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/01/20/record-1000-russian-soldiers-confirmed-killed-in-ukraine-since-jan-1-analysis-a79994
Train Bombing in Pakistan Targeting China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
Washington Post - Bombing derails passenger train in SW Pakistan, injures 15:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/bombing-derails-passenger-train-in-sw-pakistan-injures-15/2023/01/20/e045ee26-98c4-11ed-a173-61e055ec24ef_story.html
BBC - Pakistan hotel bomb: Deadly blast hits luxury venue in Quetta (April 2021):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56834937
Pakistan bus blast kills 13, including 9 Chinese CPEC workers, China demands punishment as conflicting reports emerge (July 2021):
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-15/pakistan-bus-explosion-kills-9-chinese-nationals/100294434
National Interest - Free Baluchistan (2011):
https://nationalinterest.org/commentary/free-baluchistan-4799
GovTrack - H.Con.Res. 104 (112th): Expressing the sense of Congress that the people of Baluchistan, currently divided between Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan, have the right to self-determination and to their own sovereign country. (2012):
https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/112/hconres104
US National Endowment for Democracy - Pakistan 2018 (archived):
https://web.archive.org/web/20190728014313/https://www.ned.org/region/asia/pakistan-2018/
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Ukrainian Offensive Nears 2 Month Mark: Little Left to Replace Heavy Losses
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for July 26, 2023:
-Ukraine’s offensive nears the 2 month mark, having failed to breakthrough the security zone along the line of contact and reach the first of several layers of Russian defenses;
-Ukrainian losses are significant, Russia’s Ministry of Defense estimated up to 26,000 casualties as of July 12, 2023, many more have died since;
-Comments from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicate significant losses throughout the conflict and an inability to properly prepare for the current offensive;
-Ukraine has begun using bombings, drone strikes, and other forms of terrorism deep within Russian territory to compensate for a lack of progress along the line of contact;
-US security assistance packages for Ukraine reflect dwindling capacity to sustain combat in a high-intensity war of attrition;
-Allegations of Chinese support for Russian combat operations by supplying Russian troops with equipment and drones deliberately ignore the fact that Chinese products are making it into the hands of both Russian and Ukrainian soldiers on the free market;
-The Western media framing China as incapable of brokering peace because non-lethal products it makes are on the battlefield in Ukraine ignores Western nations positioning themselves to likewise broker peace (such as France) despite transferring weapons and ammunition to Ukrainian forces;
-With Ukraine’s offensive stalled, it is likely Ukraine’s Western sponsors will be preparing for their next move, be it an intervention of one kind or another, or shifting from Ukraine to the war it is attempting to provoke with China in the Pacific;
References:
CNN - Ukrainian defense minister says attacks on Crimea will continue, predicts NATO entry early next year (July 25, 2023):
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/24/europe/ukraine-defense-minister-oleksii-reznikov-intl/index.html
Newsweek - Ukraine Details 'Key Battles' in Counteroffensive (July 24, 2023):
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-details-key-battles-counteroffensive-bakhmut-zaporizhzhia-melitopol-maliar-1814813
US Department of Defense - Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine (July 19, 2023):
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3463890/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
Reuters - US to give Ukraine new $400 million military aid package (July 22, 2023):
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-give-ukraine-new-400-million-military-aid-package-2023-07-21/
Politico - China secretly sends enough gear to Russia to equip an army (July 24, 2023):
https://www.politico.eu/article/china-firms-russia-body-armor-bullet-proof-drones-thermal-optics-army-equipment-shanghai-h-win/
CNN - Exclusive: Chinese-made drone, retrofitted and weaponized, downed in eastern Ukraine (March 16, 2023):
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/16/europe/china-made-drone-downed-eastern-ukraine-hnk-intl/index.html
The Drive - Our Best Look At Ukraine’s Shadowy ‘Alibaba Drone’ Used For Long-Range Strikes (March 2, 2023):
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/our-best-look-at-ukraines-shadowy-alibaba-drone-used-for-long-range-strikes
BBC - Ukraine rapidly expanding its 'Army of Drones' for front line (April 2023):
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-65389215
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RUMBLE EXCLUSIVE: Sri Lanka Protest Leader Caught Lying about US Funding
A protest leader in Sri Lanka was recently confronted about ties to US-funded organizations. Not only did they deny any such funding, but upon seeing evidence otherwise, began making excuses for it in a familiar pattern demonstrated by US-funded agitators around the globe.
Watch as we peel away another layer in regards to US meddling around the world and in regards to the protests and unrest in Sri Lanka in particular.
References:
Reuters - How a Band of Activists Helped Bring Down Sri Lanka's Government:
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-07-11/how-a-band-of-activists-helped-bring-down-sri-lankas-government
NYT - U.S. Groups Helped Nurture Arab Uprisings:
https://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/15/world/15aid.html
Linkedin - Chameera Dedduwage:
https://lk.linkedin.com/in/chameeradedduwage
PAFFREL - International Affiliations:
https://www.paffrel.com/inter_partnership-3---IP.html#
NED - Asia Regional 2021:
https://www.ned.org/region/asia/asia-regional-2021/
USAID Funding for PAFFREL for 2018:
https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PA00X5MN.pdf
https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PA00T82Q.pdf
USAID Funding for PAFFREL for 2019:
https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PA00X5MS.pdf
USAID Funding for PAFFREL for 2020:
https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PA00X5MZ.pdf
NED/NDI Funding for PAFFREL:
https://www.ndi.org/sites/default/files/1417_elect_quickcounthdbk_0.pdf
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US Proxy Wars: Israel Gears Up for Gaza Incursion as Initiative Passes to Russia in Ukraine
Update on the conflict in Ukraine + Middle East for October 17, 2023
- Russia continues overturning what negligible gains Ukraine made during its over 4 month-long offensive in Zaporozhye;
- Russian operations in Avdeevka continue, however no major “offensive” has been announced by Russian military or political leaders;
- Attempts by Russia to exploit possible opportunities along the line of contact are measured, with limitations identified by Russian commanders in stark contrast to Ukraine’s stand-and-fight approach;
- In the Middle East, fighting continues between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon as Israeli military operations continue to target Gaza;
- Israel has taken action to compel Palestinians to evacuate from northern parts of Gaza in what is likely an attempt to seize the territory and prevent a future return by Palestinians to the area;
- Israel’s continued violation of international law and belligerence toward its neighbors is an unsustainable policy that undermines its own self-preservation, like most US proxies;
- Russia and China are in a better position now than ever to advance the two-state solution and are creating a region in which this solution can actually materialize;
References:
Politico - Putin hammers Ukraine with West distracted by Middle East crisis (October 16, 2023):
https://www.politico.eu/article/leaders-distracted-war-hamas-israel-crisis-russia-putin-attacks-ukraine-kherson/
VOA - Russian Military Operations Slacken Near Strategic Town of Avdiivka (OOctober 16, 2023):
https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-returns-several-ukrainian-children-in-qatar-brokered-deal-/7312473.html
TASS - Russian forces continuing to implement master plan during special op — Shoigu (October 16, 2023):
https://tass.com/politics/1691503
CNN - Russia’s jamming of US-provided rocket systems complicates Ukraine’s war effort (May 2023):
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/05/politics/russia-jamming-himars-rockets-ukraine/index.html
Defense News - Lockheed wins $4.8B guided rockets contract (April 2023):
https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/aaaa/2023/04/27/lockheed-wins-48b-guided-rockets-contract/
Times of Israel - Hezbollah shoots at IDF posts, fires missile at tank in fresh Lebanon border clashes (October 16, 2023):
https://www.timesofisrael.com/hezbollah-shoots-at-idf-posts-fires-missile-at-tank-in-fresh-lebanon-border-clashes/
The Telegraph - Israeli tanks with Ukraine-style ‘anti-drone cages’ line up on Gaza border (October 16, 2023):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/10/16/israel-tanks-installed-cope-cages-drone-bomb-defence/
Haaretz - Hezbollah Anti-tank Fire Causing Most IDF Casualties in Lebanon (August 2006):
https://www.haaretz.com/2006-08-06/ty-article/hezbollah-anti-tank-fire-causing-most-idf-casualties-in-lebanon/0000017f-dbc4-d856-a37f-ffc41fc50000
NYT - A Disciplined Hezbollah Surprises Israel With Its Training, Tactics and Weapons (August 2006):
https://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/07/world/middleeast/07hezbollah.html
RAND Corporation - Extending Russia (2019):
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html
CSIS - The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan (2023):
https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan
Brookings Institution - Which Path to Persia? (2009):
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/06_iran_strategy.pdf
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Western Media Faces Ukraine’s Failures: Offensive Grinds on with No Plan-B
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for August 21, 2023:
- As Ukraine’s offensive struggles in its 3rd month to cross the Russian security zone and reach the first of several defensive lines, Russian forces around Kupiansk have begun reversing Ukraine’s territorial gains made in last year’s Ukrainian offensive;
- The Western media citing Western political and military leaders as well as previously optimistic Western analysts now admit how implausible Ukraine’s offensive plans actually were as blame begins to be traded;
- Despite a growing grip on reality, there is still talk about “wonder weapons” changing the tide of the fighting including continued talk about the delivery of US-made F-16 warplanes which face all the difficulties that NATO main battle tanks faced, preventing Ukraine from using them effectively on the battlefield;
- Russia will most likely continue its methodical advance across the battlefield after Ukraine’s offensive fully exhausts itself rather than launching its own “big-arrow” offensive;
References:
Ukrayinska Pravda (via Yahoo! News) - Ukraine's offensive success in south is successful, Russia's in Kharkiv Oblast is not – UK intelligence (August 19, 2023):
https://news.yahoo.com/ukraines-offensive-success-south-successful-065722883.html
FT - US grows doubtful Ukraine counteroffensive can quickly succeed (August 20, 2023):
https://www.ft.com/content/4d40482a-f8c4-42b8-af60-2374f93070ca
Washington Post - U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive’s key goal (August 17, 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/
NY Times - Fighting Intensifies in Northeast as Russia Presses on Kupiansk (August 17, 2023):
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/08/17/world/russia-ukraine-news
Washington Post - Wounded Ukrainian soldiers reveal steep toll of Kherson offensive (November 2022):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/07/ukraine-kherson-offensive-casualties-ammunition/
NYT - Defenses Carved Into the Earth (December 2022):
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/14/world/europe/russian-trench-fortifications-in-ukraine.html
Washington Post - Ukraine running out of options to retake significant territory (August 20, 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/20/ukraine-counteroffensive-analysis-war-russia/
DW - Ukraine updates: F-16 training has begun, Kyiv says (August 20, 2023):
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-august-20/live-66580082
CNBC - Can expensive, American-made weapons like F-16s turn the tide in Ukraine’s war against Russia? (August 19, 2023):
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/19/can-expensive-american-made-weapons-like-f-16s-turn-the-tide-in-ukraines-war-against-russia.html
Newsweek - Russia Blames Ukraine for Drone Attack on Military Airfield (August 19, 2023):
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-drone-airfield-attack-novgorod-chernihiv-1821062
Politico - Russian missile strike kills 7 in Ukraine, including child (August 19, 2023):
https://www.politico.eu/article/chenihiv-russia-shelling-in-ukraine-kills-six-including-child/
Ukrainska Pravda - Russian propagandists confirm they targeted drone manufacturers in Chernihiv (August 19, 2023):
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/19/7416255/
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Western Volunteer in Bakhmut Admits Ukraine is Losing + is the Western Tank Card a Bluff?
Update on Russian military operations in Ukraine for January 30, 2023:
- Russian forces continue encircling Bakhmut in the east and pushing toward Vugladar in the south;
- pro-Ukrainian Western volunteers admit the bleak situation Ukraine faces overall and specifically in Bakhmut;
- one volunteer admits that Wagner is better trained, better equipped, better organized and lead than Ukrainian forces fighting in Bakhmut;
- this volunteers admits Wagner is surrounding and may possibly cut of Bakhmut like in Mariupol;
- this volunteer admits Ukraine suffers from immense corruption and incompetence coupled with Western sponsors indifferent to their growing crisis;
- this volunteer admits that tanks are a "secret acknowledgement that things aren't going well;"
- the volunteer would like to see more Western advisors leading Ukrainian units in battle, a slippery slope toward direct NATO intervention;
- growing skepticism continues to surround pledged Western main battle tanks;
- US policy makers appear to suggest this strategy may be essentially a bluff to convince Russia it is more prepared than Moscow for a long-term conflict;
References:
Willy OAM (YouTube) - Untold Reality Of Wagner Group In Bakhmut Ukraine | First Hand Account, What The Media Wont Tell You:
https://youtu.be/PKZpYglZrW4
CNN - Ukraine’s new tanks won’t be the instant game-changer some expect:
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/27/europe/ukraine-war-nato-tanks-analysis-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
New York Times - Tanks Alone Won’t Turn the Tide of the War in Ukraine:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/27/us/politics/tanks-ukraine.html
RAND Corporation - Avoiding a Long War, U.S. Policy and the Trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict (2023):
https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html
RAND Corporation - Extending Russia, Competing from Advantageous Ground (2019):
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html
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Battlefield Bakhmut: Why Russia & Ukraine are Fighting Over this City
Update on Russian military operations in Ukraine for December 21, 2022:
- Pentagon admits Russia is gaining ground in Bakhmut;
- Zelensky visit to Bakhmut mirrors similar visit to Lysychansk before it fell to Russian forces;
- Western media admits Russia has Ukraine outgunned 6 to 1 in Bakhmut;
- Claims that Russian losses are as significant as catastrophic toll Ukraine is suffering in Bakhmut does not reflect reality if Russia outguns Ukraine significantly;
- Bakhmut is a significant transportation hub and a crucial fortified position along one of Ukraine's last major defensive lines in the east;
- The fall of Bakhmut may lead to a similar breakthrough like Popasna;
- Russian forces appear interested in destroying Ukraine's military at Bakhmut more than taking the city itself;
References:
Gonzalo Lira Roundtable - The Roundtable #38: Why Bakhmut Matters:
https://youtu.be/sNhUoLwgP08
AP - Russian rockets hit eastern Ukrainian town of Pokrovsk (May 2022):
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-donetsk-government-and-politics-8747938cc5e85ea947179f38c34fb022
Ukrinform - Enemy shells Pokrovsk with Iskanders five times in past day, casualties reported:
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3568945-enemy-shells-pokrovsk-with-iskanders-five-times-in-past-day-casualties-reported.html
US Department of Defense - Brigadier General Pat Ryder, Pentagon Press Secretary, Holds a Press Briefing Dec. 20, 2022:
https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3251933/brigadier-general-pat-ryder-pentagon-press-secretary-holds-a-press-briefing/
PBS - Zelenskyy visits front line in Bakhmut while Putin praises troops in Kremlin:
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/zelenskyy-visits-front-line-in-bakhmut-while-putin-praises-troops-in-kremlin
ABC Australia - Volodymyr Zelenskyy visits frontline cities as Russia resumes strikes on Ukraine's capital Kyiv:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-06/volodymyr-zelenskyy-visit-lysychansk-soledar-russia-strikes/101128386
Reuters - Analysis: Russia's grim battle for Bakhmut may yield pyrrhic victory at best:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/grim-battle-bakhmut-may-yield-only-pyrrhic-victory-russia-2022-12-20/
The Times - Ice cold test of resolve in Ukraine’s ‘meat grinder’:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-tank-regiment-russia-war-front-line-6kpcm699m
NY Times - Russia’s Battle for Bakhmut:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/28/briefing/russia-ukraine-war-bakhmut-weapons.html
WSJ - Battle for Bakhmut Is Critical Test of Russia's Prospects in Ukraine:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/battle-for-bakhmut-is-critical-test-of-russias-prospects-in-ukraine/ar-AA15qaJV
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SpaceX's Starship & the Geopolitical Implications of Reusable Rockets
US-based SpaceX’ Starship program and its implications on geopolitics…
- SpaceX continues developing its Starship program after its 2nd integrated flight test (IFT2) on September 18, 2023;
- Starship, when operational, will be the first fully reusable launch system able to recover and reuse both the 1st stage booster like SpaceX’ current Falcon family of rockets, but also the 2nd stage;
- Starship is also the largest, most powerful launch system on Earth at the moment;
- Reusability drives costs down and enables nations with access to such systems to establish orbital infrastructure quicker, cheaper, and on larger scales;
- SpaceX’ Falcon 9 rockets have already allowed SpaceX to create the Starlink constellation of satellites providing lower-latency satellite communication with greater coverage than any other current or even planned networks;
- In the event of conflict in space where nations begin targeting navigational, surveillance, and communication satellites, the nation with the ability to launch new satellites into space quicker and cheaper will have a clear advantage;
- Resources in the Earth’s solar system vastly dwarf resources found on Earth and can support a multiplanetary civilization on a scale of size and abundance hitherto unimaginable, reusability is the key to tapping this potential;
References:
NSF - After upgrades, Starship achieves numerous successes during second test flight (November 17, 2023):
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2023/11/ift-2-launch/
Our World in Data - Cost of space launches to low Earth orbit:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cost-space-launches-low-earth-orbit
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The New Atlas LIVE: Scott of Kalibrated on Ukraine's Faltered Offensive, Funding & Arms Shortages
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The New Atlas LIVE: Scott of Kalibrated on Ukraine's Faltering Offensive
Find and follow Scott of Kalibrated's work:
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CSIS War Game: US vs China over Taiwan - Provoking War to Preserve US Primacy
A look at US-based think tank CSIS’ war game regarding a “Chinese invasion of Taiwan.”
- Western military leaders and the Western media itself suggests China is pushing for war with the US over Taiwan by 2025;
- It is actually the US rushing to war over Taiwan before China’s military and economic power surpasses the US and closes the door indefinitely to Washington’s ability to use its military to coerce and threaten China;
- Taiwan is officially considered by the United States as part of China under the One China policy it itself agreed to with Beijing;
- US arms sales to Taiwan, visits to Taiwan without Beijing’s approval, and even stationing US troops on Taiwan constitute violations of Chinese sovereignty and are deliberate attempts to provoke war;
- US-based think tank CSIS war gamed a scenario in which China is provoked and invades Taiwan;
- CSIS admits Chinese military capabilities are comparable to the US’ but ultimately the US could defeat an attempted amphibious landing on Taiwan;
- CSIS admits Taiwan’s infrastructure and industry would be destroyed but it would maintain its political autonomy, trading its physical existence in to maintain its political existence;
- It is clear the US is simply attempting to disrupt the peaceful reunification of Taiwan with the rest of China and forcing China to pay the highest price possible to defend its sovereignty.
References:
TIME Magazine - U.S. General’s Prediction of War With China ‘in 2025’ Risks Turning Worst Fears Into Reality:
https://time.com/6251419/us-china-general-war-2025/
CSIS - The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan:
https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan
CSIS - Report Launch―The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan:
https://www.csis.org/events/report-launch-first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan
US State Department - U.S. Relations With Taiwan:
https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/
Voice of America - US Nearly Doubled Military Personnel Stationed in Taiwan This Year:
https://www.voanews.com/a/pentagon-us-nearly-doubled-military-personnel-stationed-in-taiwan-this-year-/6337695.html
CSIS - The Truth of the Matter: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan (VIDEO):
https://youtu.be/FTyNHQv-6EM
CSIS - Funding:
https://www.csis.org/about/financial-information/donors
CSIS - Funding, Corporations:
https://www.csis.org/about/financial-information/donors/corporations
Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies - Our Supporters:
https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/our-supporters/
BBC - US secures deal on Philippines bases to complete arc around China:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64479712
Harvard University’s Atlas of Economic Complexity - Taiwan Trade Partners 2020:
https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore?country=249&queryLevel=location&product=undefined&year=2020&productClass=HS&target=Partner&partner=undefined&startYear=undefined
Harvard University’s Atlas of Economic Complexity - The Philippines:
https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore?country=174&queryLevel=location&product=undefined&year=2020&tradeDirection=import&productClass=HS&target=Partner&partner=undefined&startYear=undefined
Harvard University’s Atlas of Economic Complexity - Japan 2020:
https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore?country=114&queryLevel=location&product=undefined&year=2020&productClass=HS&target=Partner&partner=undefined&startYear=undefined
Where to Find My Work:
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The New Atlas LIVE: Scott of Kalibrated & Ukraine's Attempts to Break Russian Lines
Scott of Kalibrated joins us to talk about Ukraine, Niger, US-Chinese tensions and more...
Where to find and follow Scott of Kalibrated:
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New Atlas LIVE is a weekly stream for discussing current events, connecting with the New Atlas community, and more.
Q&A is open the entire time, please write "QUESTION" or "Q" and then your question so we can more easily spot it.
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Ukrainian Intel Head Admits Failures, Canada Exposes West as on Wrong Side of History
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for September 25, 2023
- ATACMS will not arrive in numbers large enough for strategic impact;
- Ukrainian intelligence chief admits to Ukraine's multiplying failures and obstacles including a lack of infantry and artillery to support them on the battlefield;
- US-made M1 Abrams main battle tanks must be held back from the front line or they will be destroyed alongside German Leopard 2 and British Challenger 2 tanks according to Ukrainian intel chief;
- Canada's parliament accidentally invited and honored a World War 2 veteran who fought for German Axis forces;
- The incident highlights Ukraine's past and present problems stemming from its relationship with Germany during World War 2;
References:
ATACMS
Washington Post - U.S. will send Ukraine long-range missiles, after delay (September 22, 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/09/22/atacms-ukraine-cluster-munitions/
The Drive - Decision To Give ATACMS To Ukraine Is About To Become Easier (September 19, 2023):
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/one-argument-against-giving-atacms-to-ukraine-is-about-to-erode
Lockheed Martin - Lockheed Martin To Deliver PrSM To The US Army For Early Fielding (September 2022):
https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2022-09-27-lockheed-martin-to-deliver-prsm-to-the-us-army-for-early-fielding#:~:text=Releases,-Newsroom&text=DALLAS%2C%20Sept.,Precision%20Strike%20Missiles%20(PrSM)
CNN - Russia’s jamming of US-provided rocket systems complicates Ukraine’s war effort (May 2023):
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/05/politics/russia-jamming-himars-rockets-ukraine/index.html
Ukrainian Military Intelligence
The Drive, The Warzone - Exclusive Interview With Ukraine’s Spy Boss From His DC Hotel Room (September 22, 2023):
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/exclusive-interview-with-ukraines-spy-boss-from-his-dc-hotel-room
Mediazona - Russian casualties in Ukraine (September 22, 2023):
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng
NYT - Russia Overcomes Sanctions to Expand Missile Production, Officials Say (September 13, 2023):
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/13/us/politics/russia-sanctions-missile-production.html
Canadian Government, Jewish Ukrainian President Gives WW2 N*az* Standing Ovation
CBC News - CBC News Special: President Zelensky Address to Parliament (September 23, 2023):
https://www.youtube.com/live/7m_QRRxG1Mk?si=3ZSaC2mBCvivW38q&t=4200
Washington Post - Canadian House speaker apologizes after honoring veteran of Nazi unit (September 24, 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/24/canadian-speaker-apologizes-ukrainian-nazi/
Wikipedia - World War II:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II
Where to Find My Work:
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Ukraine's Coming Offensive: Leaked NATO Plans + Lack of Arms
Update on Russian military operations in Ukraine for April 9, 2023:
- US arms shipments have drastically dwindled, the majority of weapons pledged require contracts that will take weeks, months, even years to fulfill;
- The NYT admits arms shipments may not be adequate for the upcoming Ukrainian offensive expected to begin within 2-3 weeks;
- Leaked NATO plans regarding Ukraine may have been fabricated by NATO and leaked through authentic means to reinforce other ongoing deceptions;
- 2013 US government-funded polls regarding Crimea and Ukraine indicate that the nation was divided, many favored Russia or had affinity for Russia and the Russian language was at least as widely spoken nationwide as Ukrainian;
References:
US Department of Defense - Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine (April 4, 2023):
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3350958/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
Newsweek - What Are c-UAS Laser Guided Rocket Systems? Kyiv Gets Experimental Weaponry (April 6, 2023):
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-us-c-uas-laser-guided-rocket-systems-1793015
Washington Post - US is providing Ukraine with $2.6 billion in military aid (April 4, 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/04/04/ukraine-russia-war-security-aid-billions/aa7a7d4c-d2cc-11ed-ac8b-cd7da05168e9_story.html
NYT - New Weapons Aren’t Enough: The Challenges of Ukraine’s Coming Assault (April 3, 2023):
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/03/world/europe/ukraine-war-counteroffensive.html
NYT - Ukraine War Plans Leak Prompts Pentagon Investigation (April 6, 2023):
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/06/us/politics/ukraine-war-plan-russia.html
Politico - Ukraine gives Russia two options: Leave Crimea peacefully or be ready for battle (April 6, 2023):
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-crimea-war-peace-volodymyr-zelenskyy/
USAID, International Republican Institute (IRI) - Public Opinion Survey Residents of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea May 16 – 30, 2013:
https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/pnaec705.pdf
USAID, IRI - Public Opinion Survey Residents of Ukraine August 27-September 9, 2013:
https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNAEC703.pdf
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US Running Low on Weapons as Proxy Wars Target Russia, Iran, & China
Update on the conflict in Ukraine + Israeli-Palestinian conflict for October 14, 2023
- Ukraine’s offensive has culminated, in many areas is being overturned by Russian counter-offensives;
- Western military assistance continues to dwindle for Ukraine and is now being divided between both Ukraine and Israel;
- Israel’s military and political leadership have openly announced a deliberate intention to cut off civilians from food and fuel while bombarding them with military aviation and other long-range weapons;
- Israel is contemplating a ground operation into Gaza;
- The Middle East has been pivoting slowly away from US primacy, toward a Russian-Chinese led multipolar order;
- Hamas raids and Israel’s disproportionate response pose a danger to this process - forcing the region to be drawn into an armed conflict at risk of escalating;
- Hamas’ background and actions over the last 2 decades have served US foreign policy objectives, including supporting regime change attempts in Syria and to perpetuate, not end Israeli occupation and military aggression;
- Russia/China seek a two-state solution, in accordance with the UN, and seeks to reshape the region in a way that will make the two-state solution possible;
Reference:
Ukraine
Defense News - Germany to send Ukraine $1B in air defense tech, plus more tanks (October 11, 2023):
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2023/10/11/germany-to-send-ukraine-1b-in-air-defense-tech-plus-more-tanks/
US DoD - Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine (October 11, 2023):
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3553644/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
TIME - Biden and Congress Craft $2 Billion Aid Package as Israel Vows to ‘Crush’ Hamas (October 11, 2023):
https://time.com/6322820/israel-aid-biden-congress-hamas/
Bloomberg - US Gives First Iron Dome Interceptors to Israel (October 13, 2023):
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-12/pentagon-owned-stocks-in-israel-transfered-to-defense-forces
Israeli Ops
EI - Gaza’s beauty and struggle from above:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2mMjs8nMMs
BBC - Hamas attack: 12 Thais killed and 11 kidnapped in Israel (October 11, 2023):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-67052021
Guardian - ‘Emphasis is on damage, not accuracy’: ground offensive into Gaza seems imminent (October 10, 2023):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/10/right-now-it-is-one-day-at-a-time-life-on-israels-frontline-with-gaza
BBC - Israel's military says it fully controls communities on Gaza border (October 10, 2023):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67050127
Business Insider - For people in Gaza, life is about to get even worse, with Israel's siege about to 'starve the population,' NGO says (October 11, 2023):
https://www.businessinsider.com/gaza-strip-life-get-worse-israel-cut-food-fuel-power-2023-10
Russia and China
Politico - Putin blames US for Israel-Hamas conflict (October 10, 2023):
https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-russia-blames-us-over-isreal-hamas-conflict/
GT - US' biased stance risks undermining efforts to defuse Israel-Gaza tension (October 11, 2023):
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202310/1299692.shtml
Hamas: Background, Current Role
NYT - U.S. Groups Helped Nurture Arab Uprisings (April 2011):
https://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/15/world/15aid.html
WSJ - How Israel Helped to Spawn Hamas (January 2009):
https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB123275572295011847
Haaretz - Why Did Netanyahu Want to Strengthen Hamas? (October 11, 2023):
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-11/ty-article/.premium/netanyahu-needed-a-strong-hamas/0000018b-1e9f-d47b-a7fb-bfdfd8f30000
The New Yorker - The Redirection (by Seymour Hersh, 2007):
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2007/03/05/the-redirection
Reuters - Hamas ditches Assad, backs Syrian revolt (February 2012):
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-palestinians-idUSTRE81N1CC20120224
WaPo - U.S., Qatar agree to stop Iran from tapping $6 billion fund after Hamas attack (October 12, 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/10/12/iran-oil-fund-us-israel/
Govinfo - HAMAS' BENEFACTORS: A NETWORK OF TERROR (2014):
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-113hhrg89738/html/CHRG-113hhrg89738.htm
AJ - Israel to create a unity government and war cabinet to oversee the fight against Hamas (October 13, 2023):
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/13/israel-unity-government
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New Atlas LIVE: Missiles, Earthquakes & Pipelines - US Hegemony Fighting on All Fronts
New Atlas LIVE is a weekly stream for discussing current events, connecting with the New Atlas community, and more.
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Ukraine's Offensive Suffering Heavy Losses, Azov Commanders Return
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for July 9, 2023:
- Ukraine’s offensive is headed toward week 6 - at one and a half months, Ukraine still has not breached any of Russia’s primary defense lines;
- The US and its allies are attempting to replace lost Ukrainian equipment amid the ongoing offensive;
- The US is sending an unspecified number of 155mm cluster munitions due to a shortage of 155mm artillery ammunition;
- The US is also sending additional 155mm artillery pieces as Ukraine suffers heavy losses of equipment amid its now 5 week-long offensive;
- The US is also sending additional Bradley and Stryker vehicles in its most recent assistance package;
- Ukraine’s Swedish-equipped brigade demonstrates how even before officially becoming a NATO member, Sweden is seamlessly complicit in NATO wars and proxy wars;
- Discussed “security guarantees” for Ukraine are simply ways of rephrasing existing support and another example of NATO weakness spun as “strength;”
- Western media hails Azov leaders’ return to Ukraine despite previous coverage of their extremist ideologies;
References:
US Department of Defense - Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine July 7, 2023:
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3451570/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
Washington Post - Biden approves cluster munition supply to Ukraine July 7, 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/07/06/biden-cluster-bombs-ukraine/
The Defense Post - Edge Autonomy to Supply Penguin Drones to US Army (July 2022):
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/07/05/edge-penguin-drones-us/
Forbes - What, And Where, Is Ukraine’s High-Tech Swedish Brigade? (July 4, 2023):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/07/04/what-and-where-is-ukraines-high-tech-swedish-brigade/?sh=2e97907015bf
CNN - Azovstal leaders freed in prisoner swap promise to return to the battlefield in Ukraine (July 9, 2023):
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/09/europe/azovstal-leaders-return-ukraine-intl-hnk/index.html
CNN - A far-right battalion has a key role in Ukraine’s resistance. Its neo-Nazi history has been exploited by Putin (March 2022):
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/29/europe/ukraine-azov-movement-far-right-intl-cmd/index.html
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New Atlas LIVE: As US Proxy War Rages Against Russia, US Seeks War with China by 2025
Today we talk about the latest unfolding in Ukraine as well as US plans for war with China by 2025 including a recent CSIS "war game" regarding a "Chinese invasion of Taiwan."
New Atlas LIVE is a weekly stream for discussing current events, connecting with the New Atlas community, and more.
Q&A is open the entire time, please write "QUESTION" or "Q" and then your question so we can more easily spot it.
References:
CSIS - The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan:
https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan
CSIS - Corporate Sponsors:
https://www.csis.org/about/financial-information/donors/corporations
Andrei Martyanov - Fake Science And War (Andrei on political science):
https://youtu.be/-mN7h_q8SBA
George Galloway - Has the Effect of Economic Sanctions on Russia been Zero? (with Mark Sleboda):
https://youtu.be/vSNYRCCRyeM?t=1762
The New Atlas - Russian-Chinese Ties vs. US Aggression w/ Carl Zha & Mark Sleboda:
https://youtu.be/ALE6S_MmVew
The New Atlas - China's Taiwan Military Option - How and Why? (Chinese Weapon Systems):
https://youtu.be/mI-sdLEcEyw
We do not do super chats or monetize YouTube videos, if you would like to contribute, please check out the following options below:
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Will Western Main Battle Tanks Turn the Tide in Ukraine? What do Russian Gains in Soledar Mean?
Update on Russian military operations in Ukraine for January 13, 2022.
- Russian advances near Soledar and Bakhmut contradict “Ukrainian offensive momentum” narrative;
- Russian operations are consistent with the “demilitarization” objective for the special military operation;
- Bakhmut & Soledar are fortified cities along one of Ukraine’s last defensive lines in the Donbass region;
- West is announcing plans to send Western main battle tanks including Challenger 2 and Leopard 2 tanks;
- Challenger 2 and Leopard 2 tanks use different ammunition & both require an additional crew member (loader) increasing training demands for Ukrainian forces;
- The large variety of equipment the West is sending will create additional burdens for Ukrainian forces without any notable benefit;
- Western main battle tanks have proven to be vulnerable to (Russian-made) modern anti-tank weapons even under relatively ideal conditions;
- Ukrainian forces will be going into battle without sufficient artillery or air cover and facing off against Russian forces reinforced with an additional 300k men, new defenses, and an influx of new weaponry;
References:
The Duran on YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/@TheDuran
Alex Christoforou on YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/@AlexChristoforou
Alexander Mercouris on YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/@AlexMercouris
Washington Post - Russia claims to control Soledar, a battlefield gain after months in retreat:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/11/soledar-bakhmut-russia-war-ukraine/
Congress of the US Congressional Budget Office - The US Military's Force Structure: A Primer (explanation of the size and composition of a US armored brigade):
https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/114th-congress-2015-2016/reports/51535-fsprimer.pdf
NYT - Russia is building a vast network of trenches, traps and obstacles to slow Ukraine’s momentum. Will it work?:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/14/world/europe/russian-trench-fortifications-in-ukraine.html
Guardian - UK considers supplying handful of Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/09/uk-considers-supplying-handful-of-challenger-2-tanks-to-ukraine-war-russia
Reuters - Poland plans to give Ukraine Leopard tanks as part of coalition:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-plans-give-ukraine-leopard-tanks-part-coalition-2023-01-11/
CBS News - U.S. Tank Hit, 2 GIs Dead In Iraq (2007):
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-tank-hit-2-gis-dead-in-iraq/
Defense One - Saudi Losses in Yemen War Exposed by US Tank Deal:
https://www.defenseone.com/business/2016/08/us-tank-deal-exposes-saudi-losses-yemen-war/130623/
National Interest - Turkey's Leopard 2 Tanks Are Getting Crushed in Syria:
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/turkeys-leopard-2-tanks-are-getting-crushed-syria-95396
New York Times - A Disciplined Hezbollah Surprises Israel With Its Training, Tactics and Weapons (2006):
https://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/07/world/middleeast/07hezbollah.html
Haaretz - Hezbollah Anti-tank Fire Causing Most IDF Casualties in Lebanon (2006):
https://www.haaretz.com/2006-08-06/ty-article/hezbollah-anti-tank-fire-causing-most-idf-casualties-in-lebanon/0000017f-dbc4-d856-a37f-ffc41fc50000
The Telegraph - MoD kept failure of best tank quiet (2007):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1551418/MoD-kept-failure-of-best-tank-quiet.html
Guardian - John McCain tells Ukraine protesters: 'We are here to support your just cause' (2014):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/15/john-mccain-ukraine-protests-support-just-cause
BBC - Ukraine crisis: Transcript of leaked Nuland-Pyatt call (2014):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957
HRW - New Language Requirement Raises Concerns in Ukraine:
https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/01/19/new-language-requirement-raises-concerns-ukraine
Guardian - Ukraine bans Communist party for 'promoting separatism':
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/17/ukraine-bans-communist-party-separatism
Al Jazeera - In risky move, Ukraine’s president bans pro-Russian media:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/2/5/ukraines-president-bans-pro-russian-networks-risking-support
BBC - US and Nato troops begin Ukraine military exercise (2014):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29204505
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West's Ability to Arm Ukraine Continues to Wane
Update for Russian military operations in Ukraine for February 15, 2023:
- Ukrainian forces continue to lose ground along the line of contact;
- Bakhmut faces encirclement by Russian forces which Ukraine admits is using heavy artillery shelling, not "human waves" to destroy Ukrainian positions;
- NATO begins to admit to limits of what it can send Ukraine in terms of weapons and ammunition;
- Efforts by Western nations to increase production will still fall far short even after several years of expanding production lines;
- US announces plan to train Ukrainian forces to fight on less ammunition, using maneuver warfare instead;
-This requires long periods of complex training to be effective and is impractical for Ukrainian forces;
- The US is signaling that it is simply attempting to draw out the conflict for as long as possible;
References:
Reuters - NATO allies weigh more arms for Ukraine as Russian artillery batters Bakhmut (February 15, 2023):
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/new-russian-offensive-underway-ukraine-says-nato-2023-02-13/
Guardian - Ukrainians blow up bridge in Bakhmut amid reports Russia closing in (February 13, 2023):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/14/ukrainians-blow-up-bridge-in-bakhmut-amid-reports-russia-closing-in
US Department of Defense - Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and Army Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, Hold a Press Conference Following the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, Brussels, Belgium (February 14, 2023):
https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3298235/secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-and-army-gen-mark-a-milley-chairman-joi/
Washington Post - Ukraine live briefing: NATO meetings focus on weapons production; U.S. general says Russia ‘lost’ (February 15, 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/15/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/
The Telegraph - US warns Ukraine it may not be able to continue 'same level' of support (February 14, 2023):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/02/14/us-warns-ukraine-may-not-able-continue-level-support/
Politico - U.S. focuses on training Ukrainian troops to use less ammo (February 14, 2023):
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/14/u-s-training-ukrainian-troops-use-less-ammo-00082765
Politico - U.S. tells Ukraine it won’t send long-range missiles because it has few to spare (February 13, 2023):
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/13/u-s-wont-send-long-range-missiles-ukraine-00082652
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New Atlas LIVE: Mike Jones: Living in Russia and Life Amid the Special Military Operation
Today we talk with Mike Jones of iEarlGrey, a British expat living in Russia and has been active in covering Russia’s special military operation from his unique perspective.
Where to find Mike Jones (iEarlGrey):
Locals: https://iearlgrey.locals.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@iEarlGreyTV
Rumble (YouTube alternative): https://rumble.com/c/iEarlGrey
Telegram: https://t.me/iEarlGreyTV
Website: https://www.foreignagent.tv/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/iearlgreytv
New Atlas LIVE is a weekly stream for discussing current events, connecting with the New Atlas community, and more.
Q&A is open the entire time, please write "QUESTION" or "Q" and then your question so we can more easily spot it.
We do not do super chats or monetize YouTube videos, if you would like to contribute, please check out the following options below:
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