The New Atlas LIVE: Scott of Kalibrated on Ukraine's Faltering Offensive
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A Polish-Ukrainian Union? + Black Sea Terror & the Impact of Cluster Munitions in Ukraine
- Could moves by Poland and Ukraine be a precursor to the establishment of a buffer zone in western Ukraine similar to the one established by the US and Turkey in Syria to freeze the conflict there?
- Is Ukraine's ongoing sea and air drone campaign a significant threat to Russia's fighting capacity, or just a means to maintain the illusion of holding the initiative?
- And are US-supplied cluster munitions finally making a difference on the battlefield or is the Western media simply working its way through the latest "wonder weapon" narrative?
▪️Follow Garland on Twitter here: https://twitter.com/GarlandNixon
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▪️Dr. Leon on Twitter: https://twitter.com/DrWLeon
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Ukraine's Offensive Remains Stalled: Western Media Begins Admitting Failures
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for August 9, 2023:
- Western analysts and media sources are beginning to admit the poor progress, heavy losses, and fundamental flaws of the Ukrainian offensive and beyond that, the unsustainable nature of the proxy war in the first place;
- Ukraine is shifting away from attempts to storm Russian lines and attempting instead to conduct attritional warfare, however, it lacks the material resources to do so which necessitated “storming” tactics in the first place;
- As Ukraine’s offensive falters on the battlefield, Kiev and its Western sponsors have been focusing on aerial and naval drone strikes to create the illusion Ukraine maintains the initiative;
- Quantities of artillery, armor, and trained manpower determine the duration of Ukraine’s offensive. The disposition of both Ukrainian and Russian forces including the reserves of both sides will determine if a breakthrough will occur;
- Russian military industrial capacity and the material resources it produces for the ongoing military operation ensures that no matter where Ukraine’s offensive ends on the battlefield, it will leave Ukrainian forces exhausted, depleted, and unable to sustain their fighting capacity;
- Industrial capability between the collective West and both Russia and China is and will remain into the foreseeable future leaning in favor of Russia and China;
- The West gambled and lost on “small wars” as it enters an end game for geopolitical unipolarity against Russia and China and the reality that modern warfare against peer and near-peer competitors requires industrial capacity the West doesn’t have and cannot obtain;
References:
NYT - ‘It’s Not a Sprint,’ Ukraine’s Marines Insist. ‘It’s a Marathon.’ (August 7, 2023):
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/07/world/europe/ukraine-marines-counteroffensive.html
US Army Maneuver Center of Excellence - Defeating the Russian Battalion Tactical Group (2017):
https://www.moore.army.mil/armor/earmor/content/issues/2017/spring/2Fiore17.pdf
Vox - What went wrong in Ukraine’s counteroffensive (August 8, 2023):
https://www.vox.com/23819064/ukraine-war-counteroffensive-russia-mines-tanks
New York Times - U.S. intelligence suggests that Putin’s advisers misinformed him on Ukraine. (March 2022):
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/30/world/europe/putin-advisers-ukraine.html
CNN - Western allies receive increasingly ‘sobering’ updates on Ukraine’s counteroffensive: ‘This is the most difficult time of the war’ (August 8, 2023):
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/08/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-briefings/index.html
Syrian War Headlines
The New Yorker - The Redirection (by Seymour Hersh, 2007):
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2007/03/05/the-redirection
Guardian - U.S. launches secret drone campaign to hunt Islamic State leaders in Syria (2015):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/07/russia-airstrikes-syria-not-targetting-isis
Washington Post - Russia’s military is unlikely to turn the tide in Syria’s war (2015):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/russias-military-is-unlikely-to-turn-the-tide-in-syrias-war/2015/10/03/1b9fff04-686a-11e5-bdb6-6861f4521205_story.html
NYT - Obama Sees Russia Failing in Syria Effort (2015):
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/03/world/middleeast/syria-russia-airstrikes.html
VOX - Why Putin is doomed to fail in Syria (2015):
https://www.vox.com/2015/10/1/9431773/putin-russia-syria-doomed
Arming & Training the “Syrian Rebels”
NYT - Arms Airlift to Syria Rebels Expands, With Aid From C.I.A. (2013):
https://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/25/world/middleeast/arms-airlift-to-syrian-rebels-expands-with-cia-aid.html
Brookings Institution - An Army to Defeat Assad: How to Turn Syria’s Opposition Into a Real Fighting Force (2014):
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/an-army-to-defeat-assad-how-to-turn-syrias-opposition-into-a-real-fighting-force/
DW - The demise of the Free Syrian Army (2018):
https://www.dw.com/en/free-syrian-army-turns-to-turkey-for-support-in-war-against-assad/a-42462658
Industrial Output as the Determining Factor
RUSI - The Return of Industrial Warfare (June 2022):
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare
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US Warns Southeast Asia of "Chinese Coercion," Then Coerces Southeast Asia into Anti-China Agenda
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US Coerces Asia into Joining Anti-China Agenda
- The US seeks to turn Southeast Asia into a united front against China, despite China representing the region’s largest trade partner, investor, source of tourism, infrastructure developer and even defense supplier;
- Washington is using a combination of political and economic coercion including ongoing political interference and regime-change operations to politically capture the region, similar to what the US has done in Eastern Europe to create a united front against Russia;
- US-funded opposition parties are attempting to seize political power across Southeast Asia while US-funded media platforms and organizations consolidate control over the region’s information space;
- The US also funds opposition groups dedicated to blocking or delaying infrastructure projects including joint projects with China covering everything from dams to railways;
- Through programs like Fulbright and Chevening scholarships or the US government’s Young Southeast Asian Leaders Initiative (YSEALI) the US is creating cadres political, business, and media administrators serving US interests in the region at the cost of the region’s best interests;
- Southeast Asia may suffer the same fate as Eastern Europe, a region irrationally opposed to Russia at the cost of its economic, social, and political stability;
- In order for Southeast Asia to preserve its sovereignty it must create national and regional security arrangements to block US interference, regain control over national and regional information space, and create education systems capable of producing the human resources required to administer sovereign states rather than maintain or expand US vassalage;
References:
Washington Post - Blinken in Southeast Asia to build support for China rivalry (July 14, 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/07/14/blinken-asean-china-myanmar/
Benar News - US Condemns Sinking of Vietnamese Fishing Boat by China's Coast Guard (2020):
https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/philippine/boat-sinks-04062020171849.html
VN Express - Indonesia sinks 86 Vietnamese fishing boats (2018):
https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/indonesia-sinks-86-vietnamese-fishing-boats-3797210.html
The Star - Kelantan MMEA disposes of seven seized Vietnamese boats (February 2023):
https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2023/02/16/kelantan-mmea-disposes-of-seven-seized-vietnamese-boats
Guardian - UK sends navy vessels to Jersey amid post-Brexit fishing row with France (2021):
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/may/05/uk-hits-back-at-french-threat-to-cut-jerseys-electricity-supply
National Unity Government of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar - Homepage:
https://www.nugmyanmar.org/en/
NUG - Daw Zin Mar Aung, Minister of Foreign Affairs:
https://web.archive.org/web/20210615093050/https://mofa.nugmyanmar.org/union-minister/
National Endowment for Democracy (NED) - Ms. Zin Mar Aung:
https://www.ned.org/fellows/ms-zin-mar-aung/
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) - Annual Report 2021-2022:
https://ad-aspi.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/2023-02/ASPI-Funding_2021-2022.pdf?VersionId=uBgzvRFMWrzTqZfbQldVtdteieW95Ns1
Reuters - Biden says China won't surpass U.S. as global leader on his watch (2021):
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-china-idUSKBN2BH2ZE
Reuters - Cambodian releases alleged opposition leader plot video (2017):
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-cambodia-politics-video-idUKKCN1BE0CG
US House Foreign Affairs Committee Democrats - Tweet (July 20, 2023):
https://twitter.com/HouseForeign/status/1681792656970764288
New York Times - Who Really Brought Down Milosevic? (2000):
http://www.nytimes.com/2000/11/26/magazine/who-really-brought-down-milosevic.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm
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The New Atlas LIVE: The Duran on Ukraine's Offensive, NATO's Plan B + More...
Follow Alex and Alexander of The Duran for daily updates regarding Ukraine:
Alexander Mercouris: https://www.youtube.com/@AlexMercouris
Alex Christoforou: https://www.youtube.com/@AlexChristoforou
The Duran on Locals: https://theduran.locals.com/
The Duran on Telegram: https://t.me/thedurancom
New Atlas LIVE is a weekly stream for discussing current events, connecting with the New Atlas community, and more.
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Gonzalo Lira's Attempted Escape from Ukraine: What's Happening & How to Help
Gonzalo Lira, an American/Chilean citizen was detained by the Ukrainian SBU last year, and arrested very publicly again this year.
He had since disappeared until this week, admitting he had been in prison awaiting trial, tortured, and extorted.
He had gotten bail, and attempted to flee into Hungary for asylum and hasn't been heard from publicly since.
To help Gonzalo, the public must continue placing pressure on the US government and Western "human rights" organizations who have so far, very deliberately, ignored his case.
References:
Gonzalo Lira's recent Twitter thread:
https://twitter.com/GonzaloLira1968/status/1686140558803140608
Gonzalo's recent video - Part 1:
https://youtu.be/AW274f8s-ws?feature=shared
Gonzalo's recent video - Part 2:
https://youtu.be/TuvY9l0ShhA?feature=shared
Gonzalo's recent video - Part 3:
https://youtu.be/9jUa45UcOvE?feature=shared
Kharkov Oblast Prosecutor’s Office - Foreign Blogger Who Publicly Supported the Russian Federation (VIDEO):
https://youtu.be/QYmc7XTiCOA
US Congress - Congress bans arms to Ukraine militia linked to neo-Nazis
https://khanna.house.gov/media/in-the-news/congress-bans-arms-ukraine-militia-linked-neo-nazis
HRW - Ukraine: Widespread Use of Cluster Munitions (2014):
https://www.hrw.org/news/2014/10/20/ukraine-widespread-use-cluster-munitions
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US-Europe Attempt to Cover up Southeast Asian Meddling & How to Expose It
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- The US government along with its European partners maintain an extensive network of interference in Southeast Asia;
- The US seeks to transform Southeast Asia into a united front against China, the region currently has a close and growing relationship with Beijing;
- US-European-funded organizations have begun covering up information about their finances, associations, and actual agendas including FORSEA;
- FORSEA was founded in France & claims to be a “Southeast Asian” organization pursuing “democracy,” yet does not disclose its funding;
- US-backed Thai opposition figures are included among its co-founders and as participants at FORSEA events, including those opposed to the Thai monarchy and military;
- The Thai monarchy and military have, for generations, united and maintained Thai independence and remains the only nations in Southeast Asia who was not colonized by a Western power;
- The US seeks to undermine & remove both the monarchy and military as part of a wider regime-change agenda;
- FORSEA has recently complained about Thai independent media exposing their interference in Thailand’s internal political affairs;
- FORSEA’s website contains multiple articles explicitly mentioning and attacking the Thai monarchy and military;
- FORSEA’s “secretary general” has a long history of working with and for the US government though the National Endowment for Democracy, USAID, and other organizations;
- Other members of FORSEA’s board of directors also have a background working for US government-funded projects interfering in Southeast Asia’s internal political affairs;
- Southeast Asia could adopt something similar to Hong Kong, China’s National Security Law, cutting US-European funding off to groups attempting to divide and destroy the region;
References:
FORSEA - FORSEA Statement regarding Thailand’s TOP NEWS’s Baseless News Story about the Abolition of the Monarchy in Thailand:
https://forsea.co/forsea-statement-regarding-thailands-top-newss-baseless-news-story-about-the-abolition-of-the-monarchy-in-thailand/
FORSEA - About Us:
https://forsea.co/about-us/
FORSEA - Board of Directors:
https://forsea.co/forsea-board-members/
DC-Cam - Homepage (bottom):
https://dccam.org/home
GovInfo - A Review of the Development of Democracy in Burma (2003):
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-108shrg89837/html/CHRG-108shrg89837.htm
US National Endowment for Democracy - Burma 2021:
https://www.ned.org/region/asia/burma-2021/
US NED - 2012 Democracy Award:
https://www.ned.org/events/2012-democracy-award/
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Ukraine's "Big Push" Results in Big Losses as Offensive Nears 2 Months
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for July 31, 2023
- Ukraine's "big push" over the past week has resulted in minimum gains and massive losses;
- Ukraine's "big push" followed weeks of exercising an alleged "artillery advantage" used to soften Russian defenses;
- Western analysts used the same flawed process to assess Ukraine's artillery capabilities they used to assess the supposed likelihood NATO armor would cut through Russian defenses;
- The US rushing M1 Abrams main battle tanks to Ukraine by fall will make no difference on the battlefield, they are too few in number and no more capable than the German Leopard 2 tanks Ukraine has used in a so-far failed offensive;
- Russian defenses are layered specifically to absorb Ukrainian advances and preserve Russian manpower and equipment as they move back to successive lines of defenses;
- Ukraine's attempt to gain territory amid a war of attrition is only accelerating its own defeat;
- A German army report blaming Ukrainian soldiers for the poor outcomes of the offensive is an unfair attempt to shift blame away from NATO;
References:
New York Times - Main Thrust of Ukraine’s Offensive May Be Underway, U.S. Officials Say (July 26):
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/26/world/europe/ukraine-counteroffensive.html
NYT - Ukraine Pushes South, but Faces Obstacles in Counteroffensive (July 27, 2023):
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/07/27/world/russia-ukraine-news
Newsweek - Ukraine War Maps Detail Counteroffensive As Kyiv Ups Fighting on Two Fronts (July 29, 2023):
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-russia-counteroffensive-maps-fronts-1816175
NYT - After Suffering Heavy Losses, Ukrainians Paused to Rethink Strategy (July 15, 2023):
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/15/us/politics/ukraine-leopards-bradleys-counteroffensive.html
Forbes - Ukraine Is Winning The Artillery War—By Destroying Four Russian Howitzers for Every Howitzer It Loses (July 11, 2023):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/07/11/ukraine-is-winning-the-artillery-war-by-destroying-four-russian-howitzers-for-every-howitzer-it-loses/?sh=668e7ff0fcc0
NYT - Ukraine Pushes South, but Faces Obstacles in Counteroffensive (July 27, 2023):
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/07/27/world/russia-ukraine-news
NYT - Defenses Carved Into the Earth (December 2022):
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/14/world/europe/russian-trench-fortifications-in-ukraine.html
Politico - U.S. expects to begin delivering Abrams tanks to Ukraine in September (July 27, 2023):
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/27/u-s-expects-to-begin-delivering-abrams-tanks-to-ukraine-in-september-00108635
Defense One - Saudi Losses in Yemen War Exposed by US Tank Deal (2016):
https://www.defenseone.com/business/2016/08/us-tank-deal-exposes-saudi-losses-yemen-war/130623
The Telegraph - Ukraine: The Latest - leaked German report on counter-offensive 'extremely unhelpful' (July 26, 2023):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/07/26/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-germany-report-leak/
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NATO in the Black Sea, Russia & North Korea + Seeking Ukrainian Security
In this episode, I speak with Garland Nixon and Dr. Wilmer Leon about the Black Sea grain deal, Russian-North Korean ties, and establishing a genuine security guarantee for Ukraine.
▪️Follow Garland on Twitter here: https://twitter.com/GarlandNixon
▪️Follow Garland on YouTube here: https://www.youtube.com/@garlandn/featured
▪️Dr. Leon on Twitter: https://twitter.com/DrWLeon
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Ukrainian Offensive Nears 2 Month Mark: Little Left to Replace Heavy Losses
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for July 26, 2023:
-Ukraine’s offensive nears the 2 month mark, having failed to breakthrough the security zone along the line of contact and reach the first of several layers of Russian defenses;
-Ukrainian losses are significant, Russia’s Ministry of Defense estimated up to 26,000 casualties as of July 12, 2023, many more have died since;
-Comments from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicate significant losses throughout the conflict and an inability to properly prepare for the current offensive;
-Ukraine has begun using bombings, drone strikes, and other forms of terrorism deep within Russian territory to compensate for a lack of progress along the line of contact;
-US security assistance packages for Ukraine reflect dwindling capacity to sustain combat in a high-intensity war of attrition;
-Allegations of Chinese support for Russian combat operations by supplying Russian troops with equipment and drones deliberately ignore the fact that Chinese products are making it into the hands of both Russian and Ukrainian soldiers on the free market;
-The Western media framing China as incapable of brokering peace because non-lethal products it makes are on the battlefield in Ukraine ignores Western nations positioning themselves to likewise broker peace (such as France) despite transferring weapons and ammunition to Ukrainian forces;
-With Ukraine’s offensive stalled, it is likely Ukraine’s Western sponsors will be preparing for their next move, be it an intervention of one kind or another, or shifting from Ukraine to the war it is attempting to provoke with China in the Pacific;
References:
CNN - Ukrainian defense minister says attacks on Crimea will continue, predicts NATO entry early next year (July 25, 2023):
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/24/europe/ukraine-defense-minister-oleksii-reznikov-intl/index.html
Newsweek - Ukraine Details 'Key Battles' in Counteroffensive (July 24, 2023):
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-details-key-battles-counteroffensive-bakhmut-zaporizhzhia-melitopol-maliar-1814813
US Department of Defense - Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine (July 19, 2023):
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3463890/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
Reuters - US to give Ukraine new $400 million military aid package (July 22, 2023):
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-give-ukraine-new-400-million-military-aid-package-2023-07-21/
Politico - China secretly sends enough gear to Russia to equip an army (July 24, 2023):
https://www.politico.eu/article/china-firms-russia-body-armor-bullet-proof-drones-thermal-optics-army-equipment-shanghai-h-win/
CNN - Exclusive: Chinese-made drone, retrofitted and weaponized, downed in eastern Ukraine (March 16, 2023):
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/16/europe/china-made-drone-downed-eastern-ukraine-hnk-intl/index.html
The Drive - Our Best Look At Ukraine’s Shadowy ‘Alibaba Drone’ Used For Long-Range Strikes (March 2, 2023):
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/our-best-look-at-ukraines-shadowy-alibaba-drone-used-for-long-range-strikes
BBC - Ukraine rapidly expanding its 'Army of Drones' for front line (April 2023):
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-65389215
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Hong Kong's Victory of US Meddling: Nury Vittachi on Hong Kong's Past, Present & Future
Nury tells the story of Hong Kong’s transition from a British territory to a fully sovereign territory within China, free of disruptive foreign influence, maintaining its unique characteristics within the “One Country, Two Systems” arrangement, and about the violence and instability that unfolded beforehand.
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The New Atlas LIVE: Danny Haiphong on the US, Europe, and China
Find and Follow Danny Haiphong:
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Ukraine's Recent Attack on the Crimean Bridge & Why it Doesn't Matter
▪️ Ukraine has struck the Crimean Bridge again, killing several civilians and damaging the bridge;
▪️While waiting for a full assessment on damage, it appears support columns are intact, one road section is damaged, rail traffic is able to run;
▪️Before the bridge was constructed and before the SMO established a land bridge, ferries and shipping supplied the Russian peninsula;
▪️Crimea can/will survive without the bridge in even the WORST case scenario;
▪️Russia will respond with strategic patience, as it always does, because that is how conflicts are won;
▪️Sun Tzu in The Art of War says: "it is the unemotional, reserved, detached warrior who wins, not the hothead seeking vengeance and not the ambitious seeker of fortune."
▪️There is a good reason Russia demonstrates patience even after the most extreme provocations, this is why after over a year of fighting NATO's combined might, Russia still has the advantage...
References:
BBC - Ukraine war: Two dead after 'emergency' on Crimea bridge (July 17, 2023):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66218869
RT - Traffic stopped on Crimean Bridge due to ‘emergency’ – governor (July 17, 2023):
https://www.rt.com/russia/579814-crimea-bridge-pillar-incident/
Guardian - Putin opens 12-mile bridge between Crimea and Russian mainland (May 2018):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/15/putin-opens-bridge-between-crimea-and-russian-mainland
Guardian - Russia's bridge link with Crimea moves nearer to completion (August 2017):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/31/russia-bridge-link-crimea-moves-nearer-completion-ukraine
BBC - Ukraine conflict: Putin ally to build bridge to Crimea (January 2015):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31067977
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) - The Russian Military’s Lessons Learned in Syria (January 2021):
https://www.understandingwar.org/report/russian-military’s-lessons-learned-syria
USAID, IRI - Public Opinion Survey Residents of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea May 16 – 30, 2013:
https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/pnaec705.pdf
The Art of War, Sun Tzu:
https://classics.mit.edu/Tzu/artwar.html
The Art of War (additional quote/interpretation):
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/3223805-it-is-the-unemotional-reserved-calm-detached-warrior-who-wins
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Ukrainian vs. Russian Artillery + US Buying Taiwan's Hawk Missiles for Ukrainian Air Defense
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for July 17, 2023:
- Western analysts are claiming the recent alleged resignation of Russian General Popov reflects Ukrainian artillery superiority amid the ongoing counteroffensive despite the fact that Ukraine is admittedly losing more armor and troops and has failed to make any substantial progress in over a month and a half of intense fighting;
- Western analysts admit Russia outguns Ukraine both in terms of artillery pieces and artillery ammunition but claims Ukraine has the “edge” because of its “artillery kill chain” which includes drones and counter-battery radars, technology Russia also has but in greater abundance;
- The US is allegedly buying Hawk air defense missiles decommissioned this year by Taiwan. The Hawk air defense systems was developed during the 1960’s and the version Taiwan has on hand was upgrade in the 1980s;
- The Hawk missiles serve as a very limited replacement for medium range air defense systems like Ukraine’s Soviet-era Buk systems and will not enable Ukraine to defend against Russian glide bombs along the line of contact;
- Before these Hawk missiles reach Ukraine, they will require refurbishment, a time-consuming process limited by a lack of facilities and qualified human resources. Similar limitations are inhibiting further production of newer weapon systems like the man-portable Stinger anti-aircraft missile;
- In the wake of Germany’s Leopard 2 main battle tanks failing on the battlefield, an even smaller number of US M1 Abrams are being touted as the next great hope for Ukrainian forces;
- In another Washington Post interview with Ukrainian commander General Valery Zaluzhny, he admits that Ukraine doesn't have the necessary material means to succeed on the battlefield;
References:
TASS - Kiev lost over 26,000 during its so-called counter-offensive — Russian minister (July 12, 2023):
https://tass.com/defense/1645609
Business Insider - A fired general's pleas from the front lines reveal Ukraine is bloodying Russian forces in a critical fight (July 15, 2023):
https://www.businessinsider.com/fired-generals-concerns-show-ukraine-bloodying-russia-in-key-fight-2023-7
The Defense Post - US Army Seeking Lightweight Counter-Mortar Radar for Ukraine (November 2022):
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/11/18/us-army-counter-mortar-radar-ukraine/
Hudson Institute - What the Resignation of General Ivan Popov Tells Us about Russia’s War in Ukraine (July 13, 2023):
https://www.hudson.org/what-resignation-general-ivan-popov-tells-us-about-russias-war-ukraine
Forbes - Ukraine Is Winning The Artillery War—By Destroying Four Russian Howitzers for Every Howitzer It Loses (July 11, 2023):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/07/11/ukraine-is-winning-the-artillery-war-by-destroying-four-russian-howitzers-for-every-howitzer-it-loses/?sh=275570adfcc0
Washington Post - Zelensky’s angry tweet on NATO membership nearly backfired (July 13, 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/07/13/zelensky-ukraine-nato-invitation/
Washington Post - To defeat Russia, Ukraine’s top commander pushes to fight on his terms (July 14, 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/14/ukraine-military-valery-zaluzhny-russia/
NYT - At a U.S. Army base in Germany, Ukrainian troops are striving to master the powerful M1 Abrams tank:
https://archive.ph/g2p7l#selection-691.0-691.100
The Drive - Taiwan’s Retired Hawk SAMs Headed To Ukraine: Report (July 14, 2023):
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/taiwans-retired-hawk-sams-headed-to-ukraine-report
Defense One - Raytheon Calls in Retirees to Help Restart Stinger Missile Production (June 2023):
https://www.defenseone.com/business/2023/06/raytheon-calls-retirees-help-restart-stinger-missile-production/388067/
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The New Atlas LIVE: Scott of Kalibrated on Ukraine's Offensive, NATO Summit +Q&A
Find and Follow Scott:
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Ukraine's Offensive Suffering Heavy Losses, Azov Commanders Return
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for July 9, 2023:
- Ukraine’s offensive is headed toward week 6 - at one and a half months, Ukraine still has not breached any of Russia’s primary defense lines;
- The US and its allies are attempting to replace lost Ukrainian equipment amid the ongoing offensive;
- The US is sending an unspecified number of 155mm cluster munitions due to a shortage of 155mm artillery ammunition;
- The US is also sending additional 155mm artillery pieces as Ukraine suffers heavy losses of equipment amid its now 5 week-long offensive;
- The US is also sending additional Bradley and Stryker vehicles in its most recent assistance package;
- Ukraine’s Swedish-equipped brigade demonstrates how even before officially becoming a NATO member, Sweden is seamlessly complicit in NATO wars and proxy wars;
- Discussed “security guarantees” for Ukraine are simply ways of rephrasing existing support and another example of NATO weakness spun as “strength;”
- Western media hails Azov leaders’ return to Ukraine despite previous coverage of their extremist ideologies;
References:
US Department of Defense - Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine July 7, 2023:
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3451570/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
Washington Post - Biden approves cluster munition supply to Ukraine July 7, 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/07/06/biden-cluster-bombs-ukraine/
The Defense Post - Edge Autonomy to Supply Penguin Drones to US Army (July 2022):
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/07/05/edge-penguin-drones-us/
Forbes - What, And Where, Is Ukraine’s High-Tech Swedish Brigade? (July 4, 2023):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/07/04/what-and-where-is-ukraines-high-tech-swedish-brigade/?sh=2e97907015bf
CNN - Azovstal leaders freed in prisoner swap promise to return to the battlefield in Ukraine (July 9, 2023):
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/09/europe/azovstal-leaders-return-ukraine-intl-hnk/index.html
CNN - A far-right battalion has a key role in Ukraine’s resistance. Its neo-Nazi history has been exploited by Putin (March 2022):
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/29/europe/ukraine-azov-movement-far-right-intl-cmd/index.html
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The New Atlas LIVE: Mark Sleboda and Ukraine's Offensive at Week 5
Mark Sleboda is an international relations and security expert living in Russia. Today he talks about Ukraine's long-anticipated offensive as it enters its 5th week, the upcoming NATO summit, talk of an attack on the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, and what comes next.
Where to find Mark Sleboda’s work:
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New Atlas LIVE is a weekly stream for discussing current events, connecting with the New Atlas community, and more.
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Facebook Targets Cambodia's Prime Minister: A Lesson in Securing Information Space
- Facebook (Meta) was poised to suspend Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen’s social media account after allegedly “inciting violence;”
- Facebook, meanwhile, maintains in good standing accounts of US representatives who have not only called for violence, but have participated in it, accounting for the worst crimes against humanity in the 21st century;
- This hypocrisy is owed to the relationship US-based social media companies like Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube (Google) have with the US State Department, using social media as one of many regime change tools;
- Nations must protect their information domain as seriously as they protect their physical domains (air, land, sea, borders);
- Nations like China and Russia already help nations secure their physical domains through the transfer of military hardware;
- China and Russia have successfully secured their respective information spaces and could provide the means to help other nations secure their information space;
References:
Global Voice - Cambodian Prime Minister quits Facebook after Oversight Board review (July 3, 2023):
https://globalvoices.org/2023/07/03/cambodian-prime-minister-quits-facebook-after-oversight-board-review/
Khmer Times - PM’s Telegram an instant hit with 888,888 and counting (July 4, 2023):
https://www.khmertimeskh.com/501318152/pms-telegram-an-instant-hit-with-888888-and-counting/
NY Times - U.S. Groups Helped Nurture Arab Uprisings (2011):
https://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/15/world/15aid.html
Guardian - The truth about Twitter, Facebook and the uprisings in the Arab world (2011):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/feb/25/twitter-facebook-uprisings-arab-libya
TechCrunch - China Blocks Access to Twitter, Facebook After Riots (2009):
https://techcrunch.com/2009/07/07/china-blocks-access-to-twitter-facebook-after-riots/
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Ukraine's Offensive at 1 Month - Losing the War of Attrition
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for July 3, 2023:
- Ukraine’s offensive reaches the 1 month mark and has made relatively little progress beyond the security zones ahead of Russia’s main defenses;
- This is mainly owed to Russian mine fields and Ukraine’s inability to clear them while under fire;
- Ukraine’s artillery shell supply is limited, the longer the offensive takes, the less ammunition Ukraine will have to support and exploit any breakthroughs that do occur;
- Mounting Ukrainian losses mean that any achievements made during the offensive will be difficult to consolidate no matter where on the map the offensive ends;
- Unable to breach Russian defenses, Ukraine and its NATO sponsors appear to be exploring “alternative” options to change battlefield dynamics including continued attempts to accuse Russia of planning to destroy the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant;
References:
NY Times - Defenses Carved Into the Earth (December 2022):
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/14/world/europe/russian-trench-fortifications-in-ukraine.html
Washington Post - Ukraine’s top general, Valery Zaluzhny, wants shells, planes and patience (June 30, 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/30/valery-zaluzhny-ukraine-general-interview/
CSIS - Russia Isn’t Going to Run Out of Missiles (June 28, 2023):
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russia-isnt-going-run-out-missiles#:~:text=As%20early%20as%20March%202022,its%20“special%20military%20operation.”
Forbes - Borrowing Tactics From The U.S. Army, The Ukrainian Marine Corps Is Thundering Through Russian Lines In Fast-Moving Columns (June 13, 2023):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/06/13/borrowing-tactics-from-the-us-army-the-ukrainian-marine-corps-is-thundering-through-russian-lines-in-fast-moving-columns/?sh=382d02d25fb6
Forbes - 25 Tanks And Fighting Vehicles, Gone In A Blink: The Ukrainian Defeat Near Mala Tokmachka Was Worst Than We Thought (June 27, 2023):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/06/27/25-tanks-and-fighting-vehicles-gone-in-a-blink-the-ukrainian-defeat-near-mala-tokmachka-was-worst-than-we-thought/?sh=1aeb1c479188
The Wall Street Journal - Ukraine Hits Russian Defenses From a Distance Before Risking Troops (June 30, 2023):
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/ukraine-hits-russian-defenses-from-a-distance-before-risking-troops-26cd2502
The Journal of Conventional Weapons Destruction - Mine Field Breaching in Desert Storm:
https://commons.lib.jmu.edu/cisr-journal/vol5/iss3/9/
Military.com - The 'Bulldozer Assault' of Desert Storm Saw the US Army Opt Out of Trench Warfare:
https://www.military.com/history/bulldozer-assault-of-desert-storm-saw-us-army-opt-out-of-trench-warfare.html
WSJ - Ukraine Hits Russian Defenses From a Distance Before Risking Troops:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-hits-russian-defenses-from-a-distance-before-risking-troops-26cd2502
Washington Post - Ukraine’s top general, Valery Zaluzhny, wants shells, planes and patience (June 30, 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/30/valery-zaluzhny-ukraine-general-interview/
The Guardian - Russia reducing its presence at nuclear plant, says Ukraine (June 30, 2023):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/30/russia-has-approved-plan-blow-up-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-claims-ukraine
Andrei Martyanov - Logistics, Logistics, Logistics:
https://youtu.be/Nq4L7NxFXQU
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Washington's REAL Policy on China - "Repairing Ties" is Theater Ahead of Sanctions, War
The US Build-Up for War with China
- Visit by US Secretary of State attempts to portray the US as “reasonable” versus a “belligerent” Chinese “dictatorship;”
- Secretary Blinken recited the US “One China” policy, omitting the many ways the US has and still is blatantly violating it and provoking China;
- US strategy follows similar pattern of the US “reset” with Russia or the US-Iran “nuclear deal,” where the US sought to appear to have exhausted diplomatic options before moving on “reluctantly” to economic sanctions and war;
- Such a strategy is necessary for consensus building among US allies who would otherwise be hesitant to join the US in both economic sanctions and eventual military intervention versus China;
- US policymakers are already busy planning sanctions against China, which includes an already ongoing public relations campaign to sell Russia-style sanctions against China, as well as preparations for military operations to follow the sanctions;
- The US has a long-standing strategy to encircle and contain China spanning decades, indifferent to presidential administrations;
References:
CNN - Blinken touts ‘progress’ made in highly-anticipated Beijing meetings (June 19, 2023):
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/18/china/blinken-china-visit-wang-yi-meeting-intl-hnk/index.html
White House (official) - Remarks by President Biden at a Campaign Reception (June 20, 2023):
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/06/20/remarks-by-president-biden-at-a-campaign-reception/
VOA - US Officials Agree: China’s Xi Is a Dictator (June 25, 2023):
https://www.voanews.com/a/us-officials-agree-china-s-xi-is-a-dictator/7152326.html
US Department of State - U.S. Relations With Taiwan:
https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/
Wilson Center - Joint Communique between the United States and China (1972):
https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/121325.pdf?v=b6f92f00846fba4e9b2891ea5320a5f5
US State Department, Office of the Historian - Courses of Action in Vietnam (1965):
https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1964-68v03/d189
Brookings Institution - Which Path to Persia? Options for a New American Strategy Toward Iran (2009):
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/06_iran_strategy.pdf
Council on Foreign Relations - U.S.-Taiwan Relations in a New Era, Responding to a More Assertive China (June 2023):
https://www.cfr.org/task-force-report/us-taiwan-Relations-in-a-new-era
Atlantic Council - Sanctioning China in a Taiwan crisis: Scenarios and risks (June 2023):
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/sanctioning-china-in-a-taiwan-crisis-scenarios-and-risks/
CFR - Corporate Members:
https://www.cfr.org/membership/corporate-members
Atlantic Council - 2021 Sponsors:
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/programs/global-energy-center/attend-or-sponsor/
CSIS, China Power - How Much Trade Transits the South China Sea?:
https://chinapower.csis.org/much-trade-transits-south-china-sea/
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New Atlas LIVE: Garland Nixon & Washington's War on the World
Today, we speak to political commentator and analyst Garland Nixon about Washington's growing confrontation with Russia and China, the political climate back in the United States, and much more...
▪️Follow Garland on Twitter here: https://twitter.com/GarlandNixon
▪️Follow Garland on YouTube here: https://www.youtube.com/@garlandn/featured
New Atlas LIVE is a weekly stream for discussing current events, connecting with the New Atlas community, and more.
Q&A is open the entire time, please write "QUESTION" or "Q" and then your question so we can more easily spot it.
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US-backed Terrorism Targets Vietnam & Myanmar in Wider War on China
- Two terrorist attacks this month (June 2023) in Southeast Asia have been carried out by groups backed by the United States government and its allies for decades;
- This includes a singer murdered in Myanmar and a series of armed attacks carried out on police stations in Vietnam killing 9 including several civilians;
- British state media, the BBC, and US government-funded media platform Radio Free Asia have attempted to spin and even justify this terrorism as part of a much wider pattern promoting and defending terrorism as a means to counter China’s rise and punish nations working closely with China;
- The opposition in Myanmar has openly been backed by the US and UK for decades - fighting to reinstall Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy back into power;
- In Vietnam, the ethnic Montagnards had fought alongside US invaders in the Vietnam War, and since then have worked closely with the US through the National Endowment for Democracy toward separatism;
- Much of this context is omitted from Western state-media accounts of the terrorism;
- Both Myanmar and Vietnam’s current governments have close relations with China. Vietnam, while depicted in the Western media as “anti-China,” has worked with China to build infrastructure within its borders and access Chinese rail projects to bring their products all the way to Europe;
References:
Radio Free Asia - Armed group attacks Vietnamese police stations, 39 people arrested (June 11, 2023):
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/vietnam/dak-lak-police-attack-06112023231622.html
Human Rights Watch - Vietnam: Free Political and Religious Detainees (2011):
https://www.hrw.org/news/2011/04/07/vietnam-free-political-and-religious-detainees
Falun Dafa - Teachings at the Conference in Switzerland Hongzhi Li September 4–5, 1998 ~ Geneva, Switzerland:
https://en.falundafa.org/eng/lectures/19980904L.html
Govinfo - US-Vietnam Trade Relations (June 15, 2000):
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-106hhrg71553/html/CHRG-106hhrg71553.htm
BBC - Lily Naing Kyaw: Killing of Myanmar singer unnerves pro-military celebrities (June 6, 2023):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-65820272
The New Atlas - Myanmar: US-funded Propaganda Spins Opposition Terrorism (2021):
https://youtu.be/AOf7ShaDUc4
SCMP - SCO summit: China urges member states to ward off foreign-backed ‘colour revolutions’ (2022):
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3192817/sco-summit-china-urges-member-states-ward-foreign-backed
MHRO - Achievements:
https://www.mhro.org/about/accomplishments
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Ukrainian Offensive on "Pause" + US Meddling vs. China & North Korea
I discuss with Garland Nixon and Dr. Wilmer Leon the ongoing Ukrainian offensive, claims that it is being "paused," as well as US provocations in the Pacific including with China over its island province of Taiwan, and North Korea.
▪️Follow Garland on Twitter here: https://twitter.com/GarlandNixon
▪️Follow Garland on YouTube here: https://www.youtube.com/@garlandn/featured
▪️Dr. Leon on Twitter: https://twitter.com/DrWLeon
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The New Atlas LIVE: Mark Sleboda Explains Ukraine's Offensive as it Enters Week 3
Mark Sleboda is an international relations and security expert living in Russia. Today he talks about Ukraine's long-anticipated offensive as it enters week 3.
Where to find Mark Sleboda’s work:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealPolitickwithMarkSleboda
Telegram: https://t.me/TheRealPolitick
Twitter: https://twitter.com/MarkSleboda1
Substack: https://marksleboda.substack.com/
New Atlas LIVE is a weekly stream for discussing current events, connecting with the New Atlas community, and more.
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Ukraine's Offensive Begins: Burning NATO Equipment vs. Layered Russian Defenses
Update on Ukrainian Conflict for June 10, 2023:
- Ukraine’s long-awaited offensive has begun, including all types of NATO-provided armor and weapons;
- Visual evidence is emerging of burning Leopard 2 tanks, US Bradley fighting vehicles, and other equipment as Ukraine struggles to punch through Russia’s security zone and reach its first defensive lines;
- Both Western and Russian sources are reporting heavy Ukrainian losses;
- Since Ukraine’s fall offensives last year, Russia has mobilized 300,000 additional troops and established multiple layers of defenses;
- Regardless of Ukraine’s performance, NATO does not have the ability to supply Ukraine with the equipment and ammunition to sustain operations for any length of time or to hold gained territory against a Russian counter-offensive;
Follow Alex and Alexander of The Duran for daily updates regarding Ukraine:
Alexander Mercouris: https://www.youtube.com/@AlexMercouris
Alex Christoforou: https://www.youtube.com/@AlexChristoforou
References:
CNN - Ukrainian forces suffer ‘stiff resistance’ and losses in assault on Russian lines (June 9, 2023):
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/08/politics/ukraine-forces-resistance/index.html
NYT - Defenses Carved Into the Earth (December 2022):
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/14/world/europe/russian-trench-fortifications-in-ukraine.html
AP - NATO: Ukraine allies sent 1,550 combat vehicles, 230 tanks:
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-nato-china-8a901ab7f56b3c16ea71914c5c5e9ea6
Global Security - FM 100-61 Armor and Mechanized Based Opposing Force Operational Art, Chapter 6 - Army Group Defensive Operations:
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/policy/army/fm/100-61/Ch6.htm
The National Interest - Turkey's Leopard 2 Tanks Are Getting Crushed in Syria (November 2019):
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/turkeys-leopard-2-tanks-are-getting-crushed-syria-95396
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