Russia Responds: Missile Strikes Across Ukraine & What May Follow Next
Update on Russian military operations in Ukraine for October 11, 2022
- Russian missile strikes have spanned 2 days, targeting crucial infrastructure;
- Power, water, and communication is suffering outages;
- If strikes continue or outages made permanent, a Russian offensive may be underway;
- If strikes relent, Russia retaliated and is warning of further strikes;
- Ukraine is suffering from dwindling arms and ammunition;
- It is not a matter of if Ukraine’s offensive ends and Russia’s begins, it’s a matter of when;
References:
BBC - Crimean bridge: Excitement and fear in Ukraine after bridge blast:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63183409
BBC - Shock and horror after Russia's wave of strikes across Ukraine:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63199721
Foreign Policy - Ukraine Changes Weapons Wish List After Kyiv Terrorism Attacks:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/10/ukraine-weapons-wish-list-russia-terrorism-attacks/
UK Ministry of Defense - Defense Intelligence Update on Ukraine, October 10, 2022:
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1579337733209628672/photo/1
Institute for the Study of War - Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 10, 2022:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-10
CSIS - Russian Air and Missile Defense:
https://missilethreat.csis.org/system/russian-air-defense/
WSJ - U.S. Sends Patriot Missiles to Saudi Arabia, Fulfilling Urgent Request:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-sends-patriot-missiles-to-saudi-arabia-filling-an-urgent-request-11647822871
Forbes - New Types Of Ammunition Make Ukraine’s HIMARS Far Deadlier:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2022/10/05/new-types-of-ammunition-make-ukraines-himars-far-deadlier/?sh=6ac4f65f6dbc
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Russia-Ukraine Update: Crimean Bridge Traffic Resumes, Ukraine's Growing Arms/Ammo Crisis
- Crimean Bridge is back in operation - further repairs are required but road and rail traffic resumes;
- Western media notes the US is out of ammunition to send Ukraine and that US allies have even less;
- Nations like France have reached the limits of what they can send in terms of heavy weapons;
- Regional weather and subsequent mud is limiting the mobility of ground forces on both sides, giving the advantage to Russia which possess a larger air force, more drones, and long-range weapons indifferent to ground conditions;
- Ukrainian forces are losing ground in Bakhmut, indicating Ukrainian forces are already overextended - a situation that will only worsen in time;
- Russian forces are preserving their men and equipment and will soon be reinforced by an additional 300,000 troops;
References:
Reuters - Limited road traffic resumes on intact lanes of Crimea bridge:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/limited-road-traffic-resumes-intact-133605863.html
Washington Post - Amid Ukrainian taunts, Russia scrambles to salvage Crimean Bridge after fiery explosion:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/08/crimea-kerch-bridge-attack-explosion-russia-ukraine/
ABC (Australia) - US ammunition supplies dwindle as Ukraine war drains stockpiles (October 2022):
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-08/us-running-out-of-ammunitions-to-send-to-ukraine-war/101515370
US Army, Fort Benning - Infantry Brigade Combat Team Scout Platoon AntiArmor Engagements at the Joint Readiness Training Center (effectiveness of anti-armor weapons):
https://www.benning.army.mil/Armor/eArmor/content/issues/2021/Winter/1Brown21.pdf
Guardian - We’re almost out of ammunition and relying on western arms, says Ukraine (June 2022):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/10/were-almost-out-of-ammunition-and-relying-on-western-arms-says-ukraine#:~:text=Ukraine%20is%20using%205%2C000%20to,is%20fired%20from%20artillery%20pieces.
BBC - Ukraine war: Questions over France's weapons supply to Kyiv:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63090644
ABC (Australia) - Rain, mud to hinder war efforts in Ukraine, as Russia pushes ahead with mobilisation (September 2022):
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-25/winters-approach-sets-clock-ticking-for-ukraine-and-russia/101472766
Reuters - Ukraine troops involved in tough fighting around key eastern town - Zelenskiy:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-troops-involved-tough-fighting-around-key-eastern-town-zelenskiy-2022-10-08/
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Impact of Crimea Bridge Attack & Ukraine's Next Likely Offensive
- Ukraine strike on Crimea Bridge complicates both civilian and military logistics to Crimea - the former more so than the latter;
- The bridge attack is likely to be followed by anticipated offensive operations by Ukraine in Zaporizhzhia toward Melitopol;
- The bridge attack + Melitopol offensive is meant to isolate Crimea;
- Ukraine's offensive will leave its forces overextended, depleted and vulnerable to Russian forces who have throughout the duration of Ukraine's offensives preserved their manpower and equipment;
References:
Guardian - Key bridge linking Crimea to Russia hit by huge explosion:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/08/crimea-kerch-bridge-explosions-russia-ukraine
Forbes - Ukraine’s Counteroffensives Appear To Be Part Of A Much Bigger Plan—To Divide The Russian Army:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/10/03/ukraines-counteroffensives-appear-to-be-part-of-a-much-bigger-plan-to-divide-the-russian-army/?sh=1ed3dcb6cdf5
Julian Ropcke (Bild) - on the Crimean Bridge attack;
https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1578629986784641024
Jullian Ropcke (Bild) - on the reality of the limits of Ukraine’s offensive:
https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1577308319848480769
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Asia for Real: Thai Agricultural Drone Company Flying High
I had previously covered the use of agricultural drones in Thailand. What I didn’t realize until after I had shot the video was that the drone itself was made by a company right here in Thailand - NAC Drone.
NAC Drone has sold over 2,000 drones since 2018. Through their training program, rental options, and constantly improving product, they have made agricultural drones accessible to everyone, including laborers who might have otherwise been priced and outperformed out of their jobs.
NAC Drone is a company that reflects many aspects of Thai values and represents the true but often unseen face of Thailand as a recently industrialized nation with companies as responsible socially as they are innovative.
References:
NAC Drone - Homepage (Thai):
https://nacdrone.com/th
NAC Drone - Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/nacdrone
NAC Drone - YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYbI5AQsmXnt93cyK655Ztw
VK Fly - Manual (PDF):
http://vk-fly.com/uploadfile/upload/2020021813382278.pdf
The New Atlas - Asia For Real: Agricultural Drone in Thailand:
https://youtu.be/f2v6TWTsAEo
Chaipattana Foundation - Homepage (available in Thai & English):
https://www.chaipat.or.th/eng/
The New Atlas - Thailand’s Sufficiency Economy Explained (an older video with VERY low production quality, but explains both Thai self-sufficiency & Western propaganda attacking it):
https://youtu.be/IouBHMcQIz8
Where to Find My Work:
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The Limits of Ukraine's Offensive and the High Price to Pay When it Ends
Update on Russian operations in Ukraine for October 5, 2022
- Latest US aid package falls far short of replacing steep Ukrainian losses amid continued offensives;
- Ukraine’s offensive has limited capabilities, will not achieve “victory” over Russian forces in territory deemed “Ukrainian” by Kiev;
- Ukrainian offensive is an “all-or-nothing” proposition, hoping to achieve psychological and political gains toward ending the conflict in ways Ukrainian military force cannot;
- Western analysts celebrate the psychological impact the offensive is having on pro-Russian media, pundits, and even prominent members of Russian society;
- In reality, Ukraine will be left overextended and vulnerable just as Russia’s 300,000-strong mobilization begins shaping the battlefield.
References:
US Department of Defense - $625 Million in Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine Oct. 4, 2022:
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3179323/625-million-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
US DoD - Pentagon Press Secretary Brigadier General Pat Ryder and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Laura K. Cooper Hold a Press Briefing Oct. 4, 2022:
https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3179889/pentagon-press-secretary-brigadier-general-pat-ryder-and-deputy-assistant-secre/
Washington Post - Wounded Ukrainian soldiers reveal steep toll of Kherson offensive:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/07/ukraine-kherson-offensive-casualties-ammunition/
NY Times - In Ukraine’s South, Fierce Fighting and Deadly Costs:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/24/world/europe/ukraine-south-kherson-russia.html
Business Insider - The US has given Ukraine nearly 1 million 155 mm artillery shells. Now it's looking for US companies to build more of them.:
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-wants-to-build-artillery-shells-as-it-supplies-ukraine-2022-9
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Ukraine's Offensives vs. Russian Mobilization
Update on Russian military operations in Ukraine for October 3, 2022
Ukrainian offensives are making headlines and being leveraged politically and psychologically. In reality, Ukraine is paying a price for these offensives it cannot recover from.
Meanwhile Russia is mobilizing 300,000 men and equipment to move against Ukrainian forces just as they fully over-extend themselves and as Western inventories to re-supply Ukraine dry up.
References:
AP - Ukraine presses on with counteroffensive; Russia uses drones:
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-business-moscow-3e56d9f40590b8cca06b1b8aa6b65abd
Ukrinform - Ukraine asks Australia for more Bushmaster armored vehicles:
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3575980-ukraine-asks-australia-for-more-bushmaster-armored-vehicles.html
NYT - In Ukraine’s South, Fierce Fighting and Deadly Costs:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/24/world/europe/ukraine-south-kherson-russia.html
Army Recognition - Russian army receives new T-80BVM tanks despite world economic sanctions:
https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_october_2022_global_security_army_industry/russian_army_receives_new_t-80bvm_tanks_tanks_despite_world_economic_sanctions.html
Army Recognition - Discover first close tank battle in Ukraine between a Russian T-80BV and Ukrainian T-64BV:
https://www.armyrecognition.com/ukraine_-_russia_conflict_war_2022/discover_first_close_tank_battle_in_ukraine_between_a_russian_t-80bv_and_ukrainian_t-64bv.html
Army Recognition - Russia deploys in Ukraine new Typhoon-VDV K-4386 airborne mine-protected armored vehicles:
https://www.armyrecognition.com/ukraine_-_russia_conflict_war_2022/russia_deploys_in_ukraine_new_typhoon-vdv_k-4386_airborne_mine-protected_armored_vehicles.html
DW - Ukraine war: How to repair the Ukrainian army's modern weapons:
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-war-how-to-repair-the-ukrainian-armys-modern-weapons/a-63215373
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Nord Stream Attacks, New Russia, Mobilization - Russian Ops in Ukraine (Oct. 1, 2022)
Update on Russian military operations in Ukraine for October 1, 2022
- Russian positions are still under pressure around Lyman and Kopiansk;
- Ukrainian offensives are costing men and equipment Ukraine cannot replace;
- Comparisons to the 1944-1945 Ardennes Offensive still apply;
- Western media admits the lopsided nature of fighting in favor of Russia;
- Russia's mobilization is negating the one advantage Ukraine had, numbers;
- Attack on Nord Stream pipelines meant to place Europe into inescapable fight with Russia;
- New Russian regions negates constraints of the special military operation and represents a serious escalation in the conflict;
References:
The Duran - Putin's historic speech finalizes referenda, infuriates Collective West:
https://youtu.be/tyuRnK6hoDs
Alexander Mercouris (The Duran) - Attacks on Nord Stream Pipelines Escalates Conflict; Russia to Announce Annexation Regions Next Week:
https://youtu.be/4ju2Ggsvjbg
New Eastern Outlook - Blocking Nord Stream 2: To Fight “Russian Dictatorship,” US Dictates to Europe (2018):
https://journal-neo.org/2018/12/19/blocking-nord-stream-2-to-fight-russian-dictatorship-us-dictates-to-europe/
New York Times - In Ukraine’s South, Fierce Fighting and Deadly Costs (September 24, 2022):
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/24/world/europe/ukraine-south-kherson-russia.html
Forbes - Slovenia Is Giving Ukraine Some Very Old Tanks. But Age Can Be Deceiving.:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/09/19/slovenia-is-giving-ukraine-some-very-old-tanks-but-age-can-be-deceiving/?sh=4424fda37b3f
US Department of Defense - $1.1 Billion in Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine (September 28, 2022):
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3173378/11-billion-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
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NATO Tanks for Ukraine Impractical (says Western media)
The Western media is beginning to admit the limits of Western aid for Ukraine including in terms of main battle tanks.
As supplies of T-72s across Europe dwindle, Kiev has been increasingly demanding the delivery of Western-made main battle tanks such as Leopard 2s produced by Germany or the American-made M1 Abrams.
However this faces major obstacles and is ultimately impractical.
References:
Politico - ‘These are not rental cars’: As Ukraine pleads for tanks, the West holds back:
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/22/ukraine-requests-american-tanks-counteroffensive-00058303
DW - Ukraine war: How to repair the Ukrainian army's modern weapons:
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-war-how-to-repair-the-ukrainian-armys-modern-weapons/a-63215373
The National Interest - Turkey's Leopard 2 Tanks Are Getting Crushed in Syria:
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/turkeys-leopard-2-tanks-are-getting-crushed-syria-95396
Defense One - Saudi Losses in Yemen War Exposed by US Tank Deal:
https://www.defenseone.com/business/2016/08/us-tank-deal-exposes-saudi-losses-yemen-war/130623/
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What is Really Behind Iran's Unrest?
The Western media is depicting unrest in Iran as "the people" demanding social justice and women's rights. In reality, it is part of a years-long effort by Washington to foment upheaval and regime change in Iran.
Policy papers from 2009 detailed step-by-step how the US could overthrow the Iranian government and install an obedient client regime in its place. Since then, each step has been implemented verbatim with varying degress of success, and the process, as we can now see, continues today.
References:
BBC - Iran protests: Mahsa Amini's death puts morality police under spotlight:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-62984076
Reuters -
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-places-sanctions-irans-morality-police-abuse-women-2022-09-22/
Washington Post - Anger against Iran’s ‘morality police’ erupts after death of Mahsa Amini:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/21/iran-protests-mahsa-amini-hijab/
TIME - Who Gets to Wear a Headscarf? The Complicated History Behind France's Latest Hijab Controversy:
https://time.com/6049226/france-hijab-ban/
Brookings Institution - Which Path to Persia? Options for a New American Strategy toward Iran (2009):
https://www.brookings.edu/book/which-path-to-persia/
Reuters - U.S. State Department speaks to Twitter over Iran (2009):
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-election-twitter-usa-idUSWBT01137420090616
Financial Times - US boosts funding of tech companies to help anti-Tehran protests (2020):
https://www.ft.com/content/740a385a-3924-11ea-a6d3-9a26f8c3cba4
Reuters - U.S. to drop Iranian MEK group from terrorist list: officials:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-iran-mek-idUSBRE88K0WO20120921
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Russia Mobilizes, Referendums Underway: What Will Change and Why?
Update on Russian military operations in Ukraine for September 23, 2022
- Russia to mobilize 300,000 in addition to 150,000 already involved in operations in Ukraine;
- Russian Ministry of Defense announces nearly 6,000 Russian dead, 61,000 Ukrainian dead plus another 49,000 Ukrainians injured;
- Russian MoD claims Ukraine has mobilized 300,000 itself, losing 100,000 meaning it now faces some 450,000 Russian forces in the coming weeks and months;
- Referendums in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Lugansk to join the Russian Federation means future operations will significantly expand in intensity, quantity, and quality;
- This major escalation follows two very expensive offensives launched by Ukraine in what appears to have been an “all or nothing” move;
References:
President of Russia - Article by Vladimir Putin “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians” (July 2021):
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181
Michael Kofman (Twitter) - Thread on Mobilization:
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1572573086490464256
TIME - Why Russian Support for the War in Ukraine Hasn't Wavered (August 2022):
https://time.com/6208238/why-russian-support-for-the-war-in-ukraine-hasnt-wavered/
National Endowment for Democracy (NED) - RUSSIA: POLLING FOR DEMOCRACY, THE YURI LEVADA ANALYTICAL CENTER:
https://www.ned.org/democracy-story/russia-polling-for-democracy-the-yuri-levada-analytical-center/
Washington Post - Wounded Ukrainian soldiers reveal steep toll of Kherson offensive:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/07/ukraine-kherson-offensive-casualties-ammunition/
Sky News - Russian reserves are not trained for war - and Putin's escalation could be 'extremely dangerous', military expert says:
https://news.sky.com/story/russian-reserves-are-not-trained-for-war-and-putins-escalation-could-be-extremely-dangerous-military-expert-says-12702607
Other sources covering the Russian mobilization:
The Duran - Point of no return w/Garland Nixon (Live) (includes comments on mobilization & prisoner exchange):
https://youtu.be/gP5IHoegHMo
iEarlGrey - Mobilization Reaction. 300k Reserves To Ukraine. Flights Out Of Russia Sold Out:
https://youtu.be/A8XOy6R2-gk
Mark Sleboda on Sputnik Radio - Putin's National Address on Russian mobilization and referendums on joining Russia in east and south Ukraine:
https://marksleboda.substack.com/p/interview-on-sputniks-critical-hour
Gonzalo Lira - The Roundtable #22: Alex Christoforou, Larry Johnson, The New Atlas (on Mobilization and more):
https://youtu.be/gfz4WeN8cEs
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Game Changer? Immediate Referendums, Ukraine's Spent Reserves - Russian Ops in Ukraine 09/21/2022
Update on Russian military operations in Ukraine for September 21, 2022
- Referendums have been announced across Russian-held territory in Ukraine;
- If incorporated into the Russian Federation, Moscow could upgrade the special military operation significantly;
- The US Department of Defense, in a recent briefing, seems to acknowledge the limits of what aid it can provide Ukraine;
- Western analysts appear to agree that Ukraine’s offensives may have been a final gamble, exhausting their reserves and leaving them at the mercy of subsequent Russian escalations;
References:
US Department of Defense - Senior Defense Official and Senior Military Official Hold a Background Briefing SEPT. 19, 2022:
https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3163547/senior-defense-official-and-senior-military-official-hold-a-background-briefing/
Newsweek - Putin Gives Army September Deadline to Take More Ukraine Land: Official:
https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin-army-deadline-russia-military-push-ukraine-land-1739154
Österreichs Bundesheer (YouTube) - "All in!" The Ukrainian Offensives in Cherson and Charkiv:
https://youtu.be/Q9-NER8aFJ4
Washington Post - Wounded Ukrainian soldiers reveal steep toll of Kherson offensive:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/07/ukraine-kherson-offensive-casualties-ammunition/
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How the US is Using the Azeri-Armenian Conflict to "Extend" Russia
Many have noted the suspicious and very convenient timing regarding Azerbaijan-Armenia hostilities which serve as an additional distraction for Russia amid its special military operation in Ukraine and its ongoing operations in Syria.
In addition to a recent visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Armenia, anti-CSTO protests promoted by US government-funded media organizations in Armenia point toward events being much more than convenient timing and instead similar to US-engineered unrest seen in Ukraine in 2014.
References:
Al Jazeera - Pelosi slams Azerbaijan’s ‘illegal’ attacks during Armenia visit:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/18/pelosi-condemns-azerbaijans-illegal-attacks-on-armenia-visit
BBC - Armenia-Azerbaijan: Almost 100 killed in overnight clashes:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62888891
Hetq - Yerevan Protesters Demand Armenia's Withdrawal from CSTO:
https://hetq.am/en/article/148401
Hetq - About:
https://hetq.am/en/about
The Global Investigative Journalism Network - Sponsors and Supporters:
https://gijn.org/sponsors-and-supporters/
Eurasianet - For Armenians, CSTO missing in action:
https://eurasianet.org/for-armenians-csto-missing-in-action
Eurasianet - About:
https://eurasianet.org/about
Helsinki Citizens’ Assembly-Vanadzor - Donors:
https://hcav.am/en/category/about-us/donors/
Reuters - Nancy Pelosi condemns Azerbaijan's attacks on Armenia:
https://www.reuters.com/world/pelosi-condemns-illegal-attacks-by-azerbaijan-armenia-2022-09-18/
RAND Corporation - Extending Russia (2019):
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html
France 24 - Pelosi visits Armenia as ceasefire with Azerbaijan holds:
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220917-pelosi-visits-armenia-as-ceasefire-with-azerbaijan-holds
Armenian Parliament - Delegation Led by NA President Alen Simonyan Meets with Heads of International Structures in the United States (NED):
http://www.parliament.am/news.php?cat_id=2&NewsID=15930&year=2022&month=01&day=20&lang=eng&view=print
NEO - Russia Shoots Down US Stealth Coup (2015):
https://journal-neo.org/2015/07/31/russia-shoots-down-us-stealth-coup/
NEO - New Armenia Protests, Same US-Backed Mobs (2016):
https://journal-neo.org/2016/04/28/new-armenia-protests-same-us-backed-mobs/
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Ukraine Seeks F16s, Patriot Missiles, & Leopard Tanks - Russian Ops in Ukraine Sept.18, 2022
Update on Russian military operations in Ukraine for September 18, 2022
- Ukrainian offensives in Kherson and Kharkov have both ground to a halt;
- Near Kherson, a Russian strike on a dam up-river of the Ingulets has flooded crossings, isolating Ukrainian bridgeheads east of the river;
- Ukrainian forces have been fighting for days attempting to take eastern Kopiansk with no success as Russian reinforcements arrive;
- Potential Ukrainian offensives elsewhere are still a possibility;
- Winter fighting may see Russian military aviation given the advantage as Ukrainian forces' ability to hide in forests diminishes;
- The US is sending fewer and fewer weapons and ammunition to Ukraine;
- Future talk of sending advanced weapons from Patriots and F-16's, to Grey Eagle drones and Leopard main battle tanks ignore how impractical this aid would be;
References:
Live UA Map:
https://liveuamap.com/
Military Summary Channel - Ukraine. Military Summary And Analysis 17.09.2022:
https://youtu.be/DyBD4AruRBY
US Department of Defense - $600 Million in Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine SEPT. 15, 2022:
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3160503/600-million-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
Politico - Negotiations on whether to send F-16s and Patriots to Ukraine continue — but quietly:
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/16/f-16s-patriots-ukraine-negotiations-00057262
DW - Germany to send rocket launchers and armored vehicles to Ukraine:
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-send-rocket-launchers-and-armored-vehicles-to-ukraine/a-63140371
AP (via ABC News) - German FM urges swift decision on tank delivery to Ukraine:
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/german-fm-urges-swift-decision-tank-delivery-ukraine-89942868
Army Recognition - Russian army increases stocks of Krasnopol guided artillery shells:
https://www.armyrecognition.com/analysis_focus_army_defence_military_industry_army/russian_army_increases_stocks_of_krasnopol_guided_artillery_shells.html
Forbes - Russia’s Deadly Artillery Drones Have A Strange Secret (Updated):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2022/04/11/russias-deadly-artillery-drones-have-a-strange-secret/?sh=3d8a26bc779d
Kalashinikov - Krasnopol-M2:
https://en.kalashnikovgroup.ru/catalog/raketno-artilleriyskoe-vooruzhenie/upravlyaemye-artilleriyskie-vystrely/krasnopol-m2
National Interest - Turkey's Leopard 2 Tanks Are Getting Crushed in Syria:
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/turkeys-leopard-2-tanks-are-getting-crushed-syria-95396
National Interest - Why Did American Patriot Missiles Fail To Stop the Houthi's Attacks?:
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/why-did-american-patriot-missiles-fail-stop-houthis-attacks-197764
NBC News - Why U.S. Patriot missiles failed to stop drones and cruise missiles attacking Saudi oil sites:
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/trump-sending-troops-saudi-arabia-shows-short-range-air-defenses-ncna1057461
The Duran - Thucydides Trap sprung. Conflict and regime change operations incoming:
https://youtu.be/IV26025Kx8I
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US Ammunition Running Low for Ukraine, No Quick Fix for Shortage
The Western media based on US Army market surveys is taking notice of critical shortages of munitions among US stockpiles and what is available to send Ukraine.
The shortages undoubtedly have and will continue to manifest themselves on the battlefield in the form of Ukrainian forces being constantly outgunned.
References:
The Duran - Bakhmut and goals of the SMO w/Brian Berletic from The New Atlas and Gonzalo Lira (Live):
https://youtu.be/trePeF5q3X4
Business Insider - The US has given Ukraine nearly 1 million 155 mm artillery shells. Now it's looking for US companies to build more of them.:
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-wants-to-build-artillery-shells-as-it-supplies-ukraine-2022-9
The Insider - A farewell to arms. By year end Russia will be left almost without shells, artillery and armored vehicles (August 2022):
https://theins.ru/en/politics/254573
New York Times - Russia Is Buying North Korean Artillery, According to U.S. Intelligence:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/05/us/politics/russia-north-korea-artillery.html
RUSI - The Return of Industrial Warfare:
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare
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Escalate or Grind On? Russian Ops in Ukraine Update for September 14, 2022
Update for Russian military operations in Ukraine for September 14, 2022
- Ukraine’s recent offensive in Kherson remains stalled;
- Ukraine’s advance into Kharkov took place with an absence of Russian forces present;
- Ukraine’s offensive in Kharkov has slowed down as Ukrainian forces meet larger concentrations of Russian and local militia forces;
- Russia hitting Ukrainian electrical infrastructure may signal an escalation beyond its special military operation;
- Ukraine may still launch yet another offensive operation, but likely toward directions with significantly more Russian troops than Kharkov;
- Rumors persist that Russia is receiving drones from Iran and artillery shells and rockets from North Korea - if true it would enable Russia to either increase the intensity of their operation in Ukraine, or extend it for a longer duration;
References:
Washington Post - Wounded Ukrainian soldiers reveal steep toll of Kherson offensive:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/07/ukraine-kherson-offensive-casualties-ammunition/
The New York Times - The Critical Moment Behind Ukraine’s Rapid Advance:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/13/us/politics/ukraine-russia-pentagon.html
CNN - The rot runs deep in the Russian war machine. Ukraine is exposing it for all to see:
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/13/europe/ukraine-advance-russia-war-analysis-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
War on the Rocks - Ukraine’s Kharkhiv Operation and the Russian Military’s Black Week:
https://warontherocks.com/2022/09/ukraines-kharkhiv-operation-and-the-russian-militarys-black-week/
Ukrinaian Telegram Channel "Legitimniy" Post on Kharkov (translated):
https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/24501 Original: https://t.me/legitimniy/13431
BBC - Ukraine war: What will Russia's losses mean for Putin?:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62879367
Guardian - Russia-Ukraine war live: Russia ‘almost certainly’ getting weapons from Iran and North Korea; Kyiv aims to consolidate gains (LIVE Blog):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/sep/14/russia-ukraine-war-latest-kyiv-aims-to-consolidate-gains-in-kharkiv-biden-says-war-will-be-long-haul-live
Guardian - ‘What is Berlin afraid of?’ Ukraine presses Germany for more military kit:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/13/ukraine-germany-more-military-hardware-counter-offensive
CNN - Russia's retreat in Ukraine won't save Europe from recession this winter:
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/13/economy/europe-economy-ukraine-offensive/index.html
Washington Post - Iran sends first shipment of drones to Russia for use in Ukraine:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/29/iran-drones-russia-ukraine-war/
New York Times - Russia Is Buying North Korean Artillery, According to U.S. Intelligence:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/05/us/politics/russia-north-korea-artillery.html
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Ukraine's Offensives: Tactical Victories Can Contribute to Strategic Defeat
Update for Russian military operations in Ukraine for September 12, 2022
- Ukraine has committed what is left of its best troops and equipment to multiple and expensive offensives - both around Kherson and in Kharkov, and rumors of offensives being prepared elsewhere;
- The Kherson offensive has failed, costing Ukraine multiple brigades’ worth of men and equipment with little territorial gain;
- The Kharkov offensive has cost Ukraine a large amount of men and equipment with significant territorial gains but failed to eliminate the Russian forces holding the region;
- Russia’s decision to withdraw from Kharkov conserves men and equipment for fighting later on and to be determined on Russian terms;
- There will be a significant strategic cost for Ukraine’s tactical gains - some of which are already being paid along the line of contact where Ukrainian lines have been weakened as Kiev cobbled together these offensive forces;
- There are significant parallels between this Ukrainian push and Germany’s Ardennes Offensive in 1944;
- Russia is targeting Ukrainian infrastructure including communication towers and power plants for the first time amid its military operations, signalling a possible escalation;
References:
Washington Post - Wounded Ukrainian soldiers reveal steep toll of Kherson offensive:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/07/ukraine-kherson-offensive-casualties-ammunition/
Atlantic Council - The Ukrainian military must reorganize to defeat Russia:
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/the-ukrainian-military-must-reorganize-to-defeat-russia/
British Army Documentaries (YouTube) - The Ardennes Offensive Part 1 - A Calculated Risk:
https://youtu.be/ArtVmlqEeho
British Army Documentaries (YouTube) - The Ardennes Offensive Part 2 - Hold at All Cost:
https://youtu.be/QS-f8xLlH_o
British Army Documentaries (YouTube) - The Ardennes Offensive Part 3 - Forget Bastogne, head for the Meuse:
https://youtu.be/6bz3ZI2OA78
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Kharkov Offensive 2.0: Winning Headlines Today, Hastening Defeat for Tomorrow
Update on Russian military operations in Ukraine for September 10, 2022
- Ukraine continues its offensive around the Kharkov region after its Kherson offensive failed at great cost in lives and equipment;
- Tactical gains by Ukraine in Kharkov are also coming at great cost in lives and equipment and will leave Ukrainian forces in ultimately a weaker position than when they began;
- Russian withdrawals are tactical, focusing on long-term victory rather than daily headlines;
- Russia has repeatedly conserved manpower and equipment in the face of Ukrainian surges to later reform lines and counter attack on their own terms;
- The correlation of forces continues to favor Russia;
References:
Guardian - Russia sends reinforcements to Kharkiv to repel Ukraine counterattack:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/09/russia-kharkiv-reinforcements-ukraine-counterattack
The Duran - Kharkov, Palmyra and constraints of a 'special military operation':
https://youtu.be/zMdmlZs-F9Y
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Ukraine's Offensive Coincides with US $3 Billion+ Aid Package - Russian Ops in Ukraine Sep. 9, 2022
Update on Russian military operations in Ukraine for September 9, 2022
- Kherson offensive appears to have ended;
- The Western media admits to the massive losses suffered by Ukraine outside Kherson owed to the inferiority of Ukrainian forces versus Russian capabilities;
- Ukraine has launched an offensive in Kharkov toward Izium;
- The offensives have been launched to coincide with the announcements of massive aid packages for Ukraine;
References:
CNBC - Ukraine seizes the moment with surprise counterattacks; U.S. approves further $675 million in weapons for Kyiv:
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/08/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html
Washington Post - Wounded Ukrainian soldiers reveal steep toll of Kherson offensive:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/07/ukraine-kherson-offensive-casualties-ammunition/
Financial Times - Ukraine claims significant gains in counter-offensive against Russia:
https://www.ft.com/content/0b3f9e0a-97cd-4efa-a3d4-7b55f3ef80d8
NPR - U.S. provides nearly $3 billion to Ukraine as Blinken makes unannounced visit to Kyiv:
https://www.npr.org/2022/09/08/1121543904/secretary-of-state-blinken-visit-ukraine
Guardian - ‘We have already lost’: far-right Russian bloggers slam military failures:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/08/we-have-already-lost-far-right-russian-bloggers-slam-kremlin-over-army-response
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Asia For Real: Agricultural Drone in Thailand
I visited Phetchaburi Province, Thailand to meet with Khun Jack who operates a Thai-built agricultural drone for spraying fields.
This technology makes the job faster and cheaper and is just one of many examples of how high-tech solutions are finding their way onto the farm in Thailand.
The drone is built by NAC Drone - a Thai company providing farmers with not only the drone itself but also training on how to operate them.
For more information (Thai language): https://nacdrone.com/th
This video is part of the "Asia For Real" series - showing how people really live and work here in Asia, and Thailand in particular versus what we're told by the Western media.
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Kherson: What Happens Next? - Russian Ops in Ukraine Update September 6, 2022
Update on Russian military operations in Ukraine for September 6, 2022
- While fighting continues around Kherson, it remains positional, signifying the end of Kiev’s long-planned offensive;
- Western sources continue citing factors they believe limit Russian operations consistent with flawed Western thinking regarding Russian military capabilities stretching back to 2014-2015;
- Elements of Ukraine’s Kherson offensive appear inspired by lessons “learned” from fighting in the Donbass in 2014-2015;
- Fighting around Kherson depends on pontoon bridges on both sides, affording neither a clear advantage in terms of the means of logistics;
- Ukrainians involved in the “offensive” note they do not have the armor, artillery, or airpower to succeed;
References:
UK Ministry of Defense - Latest Intelligence Update, September 6, 2022 (Twitter):
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1567018160267661313/photo/1
Institute for the Study of War - RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, SEPTEMBER 5:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-5
Moon Over Alabama - Kherson 'Counteroffensive' - Zelenski Is Going For Broke:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/09/kherson-counteroffensive-zelenski-goes-for-broke.html#more
Alex Christoforou - Kherson, 3rd & 4th waves. Macron, Scholz warn Vucic. Erdogan warns Greece. In Liz we Truss. Update 2:
https://youtu.be/BCnQHhqN8X8
Alexander Merouris - Kherson Offensive at Standstill, US Weapons Stocks Depleted, EU Throws Money at Gas Crisis-Inflation:
https://youtu.be/-JBqM2g4tFw
Al Jazeera - Ukraine claims counteroffensive success to ‘starve the Russians’:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/5/ukraine-claims-battlefield-victories-during-counteroffensive
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Kherson Offensive: What Went Wrong?
Ukraine’s “Kherson Offensive” has been downgraded from an actual offensive back into the long-range stand-off fighting that has favored Russia.
What went wrong? Between a correlation of forces favoring Russia and poor planning, what was a politically-motivated offensive had been doomed before it was launched.
References:
Newsweek - Ukraine Plans 'Systemic Grinding' of Putin's Army to Take Kherson: Official:
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-plans-systemic-grinding-putins-army-take-kherson-official-1739670
Washington Post - Ukrainians line up to donate blood to save ‘soldiers who are fighting for us’:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/03/ukraine-mykolaiv-blood-drive-kherson/
US Army, Fort Benning - Amor Mounted Maneuver Journal (Spring 2017), “Defeating the Battalion Tactical Group:
https://www.benning.army.mil/Armor/eARMOR/content/issues/2017/Spring/ARMOR%20Spring%202017%20edition.pdf
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"Kherson Offensive" Downgraded to "Slow Grind" - Russian Ops in Ukraine, Sept. 04, 2022
Update for Russian military operations in Ukraine for September 4, 2022
- Ukrainian “Kherson Offensive” is resulting in massive casualties for Ukraine with negligible territorial gains, some of which have already been reversed;
- Western media continues to spin the ongoing fighting in southern Ukraine attempting to explain why it is not materializing in gains;
- Claims that Ukraine is pursuing a “slow grind” strategy in Kherson is an admission that fighting has returned to the pre-”offensive” stand-off;
- Ukraine has clearly committed what is left of its best men and equipment to the fight;
References:
Institute for the Study of War - RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, SEPTEMBER 2:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-2
Ukrainian General Staff on Facebook - September 3, 2022 Operational Update:
https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0cdUvpJd3jJArefSrDC6X8WT5LsjujbbSArpgUH65YhWE5Aed2UJPh7xjViFbAnahl
Guardian - Push to retake Kherson is symbol of Ukraine’s cautious confidence:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/02/ukraine-russia-war-push-to-retake-kherson
Politico - Ukraine makes early ‘tactical gains’ in long battle to retake Kherson:
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukrainian-troops-make-tactical-gains-toward-strategic-southern-city-of-kherson/
WSJ - Ukraine Sees Many Ways to Hurt Russia in Kherson Offensive: A string of small fights is more likely than a massed attack as Kyiv protects its troops:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-sees-many-ways-to-hurt-russia-in-kherson-offensive-11662203459
RFE/RL - Ukraine's Southern Offensive To Reclaim Territory Will Come In Stages, Says Military Strategist:
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-southern-offensive-interview-ryan-russia/32016869.html
NPR - Ukraine's southern offensive relies on heavy weapons. Soldiers say there aren't enough:
https://www.npr.org/2022/09/02/1120621146/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-war-himars
Reuters - Russia says it foiled Ukrainian attempt to seize nuclear plant:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-it-foiled-ukrainian-attempt-seize-nuclear-plant-2022-09-03/
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2019 RAND Paper Warned US of Failure During Ukraine Conflict
As far back as 2019, US Army-commissioned studies examined different means to provoke and antagonize Russia who they acknowledged sought to avoid conflict.
However, they also warned that if Russia was pushed too far, it could trigger an escalation that would spiral out of Washington's control.
Today we are watching this conflict unfold. Just how accurate was the study's predictions?
References:
RAND Corporation - Extending Russia (2019):
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html
Politico - Technology concerns imperil Gray Eagle drone transfer to Ukraine:
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/09/technology-concerns-imperil-gray-eagle-drone-transfer-to-ukraine-00050573
CBS News - Why military aid in Ukraine may not always get to the front lines:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-military-aid-weapons-front-lines/
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US-backed Proxy War Against China Rages in Myanmar
The US government through one of its organizations, the US Institute of Peace, has recently called for more aid to opposition groups fighting the central government of Myanmar.
What is the rest of the story and why has the US invested billions over decades to interfere in Myanmar's internal political affairs. Are we watching another case of US interference as part of a wider proxy war - this time instead of Russia, against China?
The New Atlas - Myanmar Playlist: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=flEjlLfnTLk&list=PLkhlYgGXRhhykD9hzMZ__KQQvLVWNjJ4A
US Backing Behind the "National Unity Government": https://youtu.be/AqoM5JwnQcI
Aung San Suu Kyi's foreign advisers:
Sean Turnell: https://youtu.be/rZg1YNcFUmo
Joseph Fisher: https://youtu.be/e8abz2auo7Y
Robert San Pe: https://youtu.be/S2FLGsomPpc
References:
US Institute of Peace - It’s Time to Help Myanmar’s Resistance Prevail:
https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/08/its-time-help-myanmars-resistance-prevail
US Institute of Peace - About:
https://www.usip.org/about
CNN - Chinese factories set on fire and at least 38 killed in Myanmar's deadliest day since coup:
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/15/asia/myanmar-deaths-chinese-factories-intl-hnk/index.html
Irrawaddy - China-Backed Pipeline Facility Damaged in Myanmar Resistance Attack:
https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/china-backed-pipeline-facility-damaged-in-myanmar-resistance-attack.html
NED - Burma 2021:
https://www.ned.org/region/asia/burma-2021/
NED - Ms. Zin Mar Aung:
https://www.ned.org/fellows/ms-zin-mar-aung/
NUG - official website:
https://www.nugmyanmar.org/en/
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"Kherson Offensive" Announced by Western Media
The Western media claims the long-awaited "Kherson Offensive" has "begun."
Regardless of its outcome, the fact that Ukraine is attempting to launch a counter-offensive in Kherson rather than the main front line in Donbass reveals deep, irreversible weaknesses that are and will continue to cost Ukraine the conflict.
References:
Guardian - Zelenskiy tells Russian forces to flee as Ukraine counteroffensive begins in Kherson:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/30/zelenskiy-tells-russian-forces-to-flee-as-ukraine-counteroffensive-begins-in-kherson
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