Stocks Puke And Gold Loves It, Bond Market Turns, And This Is Why This Time Really Is Different
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Markets closed upside down as reports of the end of the world began to circulate.
This inflation cycle is not and will not be like any other time we have seen
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Goldman Says Gold's Heading For Epic Surge, Warns Of Losing Control Of Inflation & US Tension Abroad
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according to Goldman Sachs commodities research chief, Jeffrey Currie, strengthens his thesis that the case for commodities has rarely been stronger.
While many commodities are fundamentally exposed to events, believes oil and gold provide the cleanest hedges for this global risk.
Currie notes that it is clear that as tension in the region increases, gold is acting as the currency of last resort. As we noted before gold tends to respond to those geopolitical risks which can directly affect the US. We think that the ongoing energy crisis and above target US inflation means that any disruption to commodity flows can lead to greater concern of US inflation overshoot and subsequent hard landing.
A common concern for gold in 2022 is looming Fed hikes and the potential for higher long term real rates.
However, we find that historically, gold tends to increase during rate hike periods when gold’s negative correlation with long term real rates also tends to break down. This is already happening with gold displaying resilience to the most recent increase in US 10 year real rates. In our previous research, we argued that this has to do with the fact that the rate hikes themselves can lead to fears of a growth slowdown and recession and therefore boost demand for safe haven assets, such as gold. This means if inflation fails to slow down in the second half of 2022 and the Fed is forced to hike more than currently expected, gold should be resilient as this would increase fears of a potential recession.
Gold is beginning to disconnect from real rates
First, there is clear upside skew in oil prices on both a tactical and strategic basis, with any geopolitical risk premia comin
4
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Morgage Rates Surge Ahead Of Agressive Rate Hike Cycle, Pushing Owning A Home Out Of Reach For Many
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Housing unaffordability hit a three-year high and may take a turn for the worse as the Federal Reserve prepares for a very aggressive rate hike cycle. If the Fed has six or more rate hikes before December, which the market is currently pricing in, mortgage rates could soar even higher, driving unaffordability to levels that could then reverse the red hot housing market.
"The strength of price gains are associated with the strength of the local job market, but the escalating prices took a toll on home shoppers, compelling many to come up with extra cash, and forcing others to delay making a purchase altogether," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist.
"A number of families, especially would-be first-time buyers, are increasingly being forced out of the market, and this is why supply is critical to expanding homeownership opportunity."
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports mortgage payments for first-time homebuyers in the fourth quarter of 2021 jumped to 25.6% of their household incomes, the highest in three years and up 3.2 percentage points from the same quarter last year.
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Goldman Sach Predicts Blood Bath In The S&P 500, They Predict A Decline Of 24% To 3,600
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Goldman's most bearish warning we have heard from him ever since he forecast back in March 2020 that the S&P could crash to 2000, which of course bottom-ticked the market. According to the Goldman strategist, "uncertainty abounds regarding the path of inflation and Fed policy. We believe two-sided risks exist to our baseline S&P 500 forecast, but with a larger downside tail."
Kostin considers three alternative scenarios.
If inflation remains high and prompts continued Fed hiking that lifts the terminal funds rate well beyond the market and our economists’ estimates, we expect thecost of equity would rise on net and the S&P 500 would decline by 12% to 3900.
Alternatively, if inflation recedes by more than expected this year and results in fewer Fed hikes, we expect the cost of equity would fall and the S&P 500 would riseby 24% to 5500.
Finally, if the US economy tips into a recession –a question which Goldman's investors have increasingly been asking –the typical 24% recession peak-to-trough price decline would reduce the S&P 500 to 3600.
Inflation Blows Through Expectations, The Fed Warns It May Be Too Late & Calls Emergency Meeting
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all of a sudden, The Fed has called for an "Expedited, Closed" Board Meeting on Monday Feb 14th.
The goal of the meeting is: "Review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by the Federal Reserve Banks."
and after January's surprisingly bad decline to fresh decade lows, analysts expect University of Michigan's Sentiment Survey to show further modest weakness in preliminary February data. They were right in direction but the magnitude is way off - UMich headline sentiment crashed from 67.2 to 61.7 (against 67.0 expectations). Both Current Conditions (from 72.0 to 68.5) and Expectations plunged (from 64.1 to 57.4), even though both were expected to show modest rebounds.
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Is The Big Move Already Underway? A Matter Of Months, Not Years For Gold, Interview David Garofalo
Today we interview David Garofalo, Dave is the CEO of Gold Royalty Corp.
Newmont and Goldcorp merged a couple of years ago in what is the largest corporate merger in gold industry history, a $32bn deal! The CEO of Goldcorp, the mastermind behind this deal, is David Garofalo, who is now CEO of Gold Royalty Corp!! https://www.goldroyalty.com/
NYSE American: GROY $4.11
NYSE American: GROY.WS $0.88
I try to pick dave's brain on inflation, the future for gold prices and \his responses were enlightening to say the least.
Some other questions from the interview were.
-What is your personal background in business?
-inflation hit 40-yr highs and gold did nothing exciting, it is now speculated that might not be a good inflation hedge - is that overblown?
-How has the gold mining industry coped with shutdowns, restrictions and supply chain shocks?
-What are the risks involved with traditional mining operations?
-How difficult is it to find new gold deposits?
1
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Tyson Soars After Revealing Major Price Hikes Coming, Controllers Discuss MEAT TAX! Market Turmoil
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huge taxes be imposed on meat products to fight climate change, with calls for beef to be 56 per cent more expensive.
the Fed released the latest consumer credit report for the month of December which saw a dramatic drop in growth rate, with total credit rising just $18.9BN, well below the consensus estimate of $25 billion, and a 50% plunge from the November increase of $38.8 billion.
In the last month of the year, consumer credit rose at a 5.1% annual rate to $4.431trillion, according to the Federal Reserve. The total increase was $18.898BN from the previous month.
The Billionaires Are Getting Rich From The Money Printer While The Poor Are Getting Wiped Out
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Inflation is the most regressive tax possible upon people who can't afford it. The entire system functions in an extraordinarily convenient way for elites, politicians, central bankers and central planners
Today, the entire global banking and monetary system is a total lie and in my opinion crimes against the world. Since about 2000 central banks have been afforded unlimited power in total secrecy and have printed infinite amounts of “money”, which is then disproportionately distributed toward the ruling class, billionaires, and elites, instead of the people who need it the most. they are not propping up the economy, they are literally enriching their associates and fellow collaborators.
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1
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MSFT Plummets Following Earnings Report, The Beat Expectations But Many Say They Reached The Limit
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Here is what the company reported for Q4:
Revenue $51.73 billion, +20% y/y, beating estimates of $50.87 billion
EPS $2.48 vs. $2.03 y/y, beating estimates of $2.31
Operating income $22.25 billion, +9.9% q/q, beating the estimate $21.06 billion
Capital expenditure $5.87 billion, +41% y/y, beating estimates $5.83 billion
the revenue numbers shows even more beats:
Productivity and Business Processes revenue $15.94 billion, +19% y/y, beating the estimate $15.91 billion
Intelligent Cloud revenue $18.33 billion, +26% y/y, beating the estimate $18.32 billion
More Personal Computing revenue $17.47 billion, +15% y/y, beating the estimate $16.67 billion
“We’ve kind of hit the highest peak of growth we’re going to see in a while,” said Brent Thill, an analyst at Jefferies LLC. “You have a theme of decelerating growth and harder comps are coming up.”
Of course, that's just goalseeking a narrative to a market reaction. The reality is that despite what any other day would have sent the shares soaring 5% to 10% higher, has instead led to a tumble as this merciless market seems ready to punish anything tech related, even if for all the wrong reasons. Indeed, Microsoft shares dropped about 3.5% in extended trading following the report, after declining 2.7% to $288.49 at the close
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Gold And Silver Entering Epic Once In A Lifetime Move, GLD Record Inflows Interview Lior Gantz
for more from our guest https://www.wealthresearchgroup.com
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today we interviewed Lior Gantz, He had some very pressing news regarding stocks that frankly gets more apparent by the day. the stuff has hit the fan but there is no need to panic with the markets, understanding the epic moves in gold that are already underway can lead to awesome returns.
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Stocks Begin To Tank As Investors Eye The Feds Tightening, All Major Indices Below 200 dma
Follow http://t.me/everycreatureministry If anyone knows they have no good in them and are suffering and just can't do it anymore. matt 11:27 All things are delivered unto me of my Father: and no man knoweth the Son, but the Father; neither knoweth any man the Father, save the Son, and he to whomsoever the Son will reveal him.
28 Come unto me, all ye that labour and are heavy laden, and I will give you rest.
29 Take my yoke upon you, and learn of me; for I am meek and lowly in heart: and ye shall find rest unto your souls.
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The Nasdaq Composite is down 14% from its highs, but the Russell 2000 is worst, down over 18% from its highs S&P -8.1% from its highs and Dow -6.75%
This the 3rd straight weekly loss for the S&P (its longest weekly losing streak since Sept 2020) with every bounce hit hard. Nasdaq and Small Caps were the hardest hit this week with The Dow the best of a bad bunch. This was the worst week for Nasdaq Since March 2020, Russell 2000's worst week since June 2020, and S&P and Dow's worst since Oct 2020...
Nasdaq is now at its worst start to a year in at least 30 years
Ready For A 50% Stock Market Collapse, Investing Legend Warns Of Most Critical Time Of Your Life!
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the Fed and other central banks went all in on stabilizing the market, resulting in an epic year for risk assets which closed 2021 at all time highs, But with stocks again swooning on fears Fed support of gradually fading, it didn't take long for the 83-year-old Grantham to publish his most apocalyptic note yet, "Let The Wild Rumpus Begin" out this morning, in which he revisits the familiar them that we are currently living in asuperbubble- only the fourth of the past century - and like the crash of 1929, the dot-com bust of 2000 and the financial crisis of 2008, Grantham is "nearly certain" the bursting of this bubble has begun, sending indexes back to statistical norms and possibly further.
The iconic value manager sees the S&P tumbling by nearly 50% to 2,500 from its all time highs of 4,800 just a few weeks ago. TheNasdaq Composite, which closed in a technical correction on Wednesday down 10% from its all time high, may sustain an even bigger correction.
“I wasn’t quite as certain about this bubble a year ago as I had been about the tech bubble of 2000, or as I had been in Japan, or as I had been in the housing bubble of 2007,” Grantham told Bloomberg in a “Front Row” interview.“I felt highly likely, but perhaps not nearly certain. Today, I feel it is just about nearly certain.”
The signs that Grantham has been looking at are hardly a secret: the first indication that the bursting of the superbubble has begun came last February, when dozens of the most speculative stocks began falling. One proxy, Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF, has since tumbled by 52%. Next, the Russell 2000, an index of mid-cap equities that typically outperforms in a bull market, trailed the S&P 500 in 2021. Indeed, many of the bubble baskets which are a proxy of central bank liquidity, have been sharply lower for the past year with a handful of exceptions.
The iconic value manager sees the S&P tumbling by nearly 50% to 2,500 from its all time highs of 4,800 just a few weeks ago. TheNasdaq Composite, which closed in a technical correction on Wednesday down 10% from its all time high, may sustain an even bigger correction.
“I wasn’t quite as certain about this bubble a year ago as I had been about the tech bubble of 2000, or as I had been in Japan, or as I had been in the housing bubble of 2007,” Grantham told Bloomberg in a “Front Row” interview.“I felt highly likely, but perhaps not nearly certain. Today, I feel it is just about nearly certain.”
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Gold Prices During High Inflation, Myth Or Fact? Knowing When To Buy Is Key To Profitable Results
A prevailing theory of what drives the gold price is changes to the consumer price index, also known as inflation. Consumer prices have been skyrocketing. But the price of gold has not. So is this a bullish signal?
If rising consumer prices didn't cause the price of gold to rise then why does inflation drive gold prices.
(Gold miners V.S. Spot Gold)
December 2013 – March 2014: (Gold Mining Inc) 164%, comparison to gold spot: 11.49% (10X LEVERAGE)
January 2016 – September 2016: (Gold Mining Inc) 665%, comparison to gold spot: 22.65% (30X LEVERAGE)
December 2018 – February 2020: (Gold Mining Inc) 150%, comparison to gold spot: 26.01% (5X LEVERAGE)
March 2020 – August 2020: (Gold Mining Inc) 218%, comparison to gold spot: 36.12% (7X LEVERAGE)
It's my personal opinion that Admir and all His projects are crazy undervalued and He has caught the attention and support Of BlackRock and other heavy hitters, the fact Gold Mining Inc. is so undervalued means this could be huge.
Why is GOLDMining Inc.- http://goldmining.com -considered the ultimate "Gold Optionality" Company in the world?
16.2 Moz M&I RESOURCE, 16.2 Moz INFERRED RESOURCE
Their "ounces in the ground" is among the highest of any junior mining company --- this needs to be said --- 32 million ounces is beyond rare
GOLD ROYALTY CORP (15% ownership) --- GOLDMining Inc. has an equity position in the fastest-growing gold royalty in the world! Think of it this way --- GOLDMining Inc.'s market cap is CAD$234M and GROY's equity position is worth CAD$122M, which means that you're getting 32M ounces of gold at a price of CAD$112M (234 - 122 = 112). When you divide that, it comes out to $3.5/ounce of GOLD! ($112/32 = $3.5)
You cannot beat that! Today, buying "ounces in the ground" means paying $50/oz !
Top shareholders:
KCR Fund, GDXJ VanEck ETF, Ruffer Gold, Extract Capital, Sprott Global, Marin Katusa, BlackRock Inc, Oppenheimer Holdings
https://www.gldgnews.com/
TSX-GOLD NYSE-GLDG
Whether rising prices are a signal for gold, depends on the cause. If prices are going up due to nonmonetary forces, would that drive up the price of gold?
There are times when the price of gold and consumer goods are rising together and other times one is moving up sharply, but not the other. For example, 2009-2011, the price of gold more than doubled.
This year, consumer prices are up about 6.3% according to Bureau of Labor Statistics. The price of gold is down about 5%.
If prices go up due to monetary sabotage (Money Printer Go BRRR), that is dangerous inflation. If prices go up to due to shipping sabotage, that is inflation also. And if prices go up due to laws that make everyone use more-expensive cars or heating fuel then that is inflation.
When the fed prints an ocean of money, well, that's the reason I started hoarding metals in the first place.
https://www.goldstandardir.com/goldmining-disclaimer-2/
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CPI Soars At Fastest Pace In 39 Years, The End Of Small Business In America
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the 7% CPI print at its highest since June 1982 (when ET was launched in the US)...
That is the 19th straight monthly rise in headline CPI and Core CPI also surged to its highest since Feb 1991 (printing hotter than expected at +5.5% YoY)...
Under the hood, commodities, shelter, and new-and-used cars and trucks saw prices jump the most. Energy actually saw a modest 0.4% retracement (that will not be the case in January)...
The cost of putting a roof over your head is accelerating once again. Shelter inflation rises to 4.13% Y/Y from 3.84%, the highest since Feb 2007...
And if you think that used car CPI is going to slow anytime soon, think again...
In fact, while Services inflation rose to +3.7% - its highest since Jan 2007 - Goods inflation soared 10.7% YoY - its highest since May 1975...
Finally, and perhaps most importantly for Main Street, real average hourly earnings fell (down 2.4% YoY) for the 9th straight month...
So the next time a politician tries to tell you to be grateful that your wages are going up or you can move to a new higher paying job, just remind him that the surge in the cost of living is outpacing wage gains
3,000 United Airlines Workers Unable To Work, Meat Production Plummets As Thousands Fall By The Day
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So employees across several critical industries have been dropping like flies as absenteeism storms the nation. The scary part is as more and more fall ill, is this the beginning of a new nightmare. They fired all of the healthy people. New data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows beef output last week dropped 5.3% YoY, and wholesale prices jumped 1.3% on Monday, the most significant increase since August.
the meat industry for price-gouging. Still, it appears they have very little knowledge or are unable to or unwilling to admit problems actually driving inflation in the industry, which is related to labor issues.
"The beef market is finding some strength because you're having trouble with absentee workers," Don Roose, president of U.S. Commodities Inc. in West Des Moines, Iowa, told Bloomberg by phone.
Recently absenteeism at processing, packaging, and distribution of meat plants has recorded around 8%, up from 4-5%, said Mark Lauritsen, vice president of meatpacking at the United Food and Commercial Workers Union, representing thousands of plants employees.
"Meat plants don't tend to be as bad as the general population," Lauritsen said, adding that many meat workers are fully v********and kept absenteeism relatively low.
However, the spread of the [blah...] has begun to sicken workers from meatpacking plants to supermarkets. It is producing supply problems in the new year.
Cargill Inc., a top U.S. meatpacker, said it was experiencing a rise in [blah] at its plants, though all the plants are still operating.
Other food makers, such as Conagra Brands Inc. and Campbell Soup Co., are seeing upticks in absenteeism among workers due to....
Meanwhile, Americans begin to panic as many have taken to social media to voice their concerns about food shortages at supermarkets. United also reported similar absenteeism as over 3,000 workers have fallen ill and have been unable to work.
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Auto Production Plummets At Manufacturers, NYC Sabotages Shipping, Fires Workers, Break Supply Chain
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Mexican automotive production plunged to the lowest levels annually since 2014 as ongoing semiconductor shortages put the brakes on the industry.
National statistics agency (INEGI) data shows auto production in December slumped 16.51% to 212,272 vehicles from a year earlier, while exports dropped by 17.31% to 227,465.
Volkswagen Group's Audi was the worst-hit automaker which saw a staggering 74% drop in production. General Motors Co. and Daimler AG's Mercedes Benz both saw output halved.
An unrelenting global semiconductor shortage continues to terrorize automakers in Mexico and all over North America, forcing many to implement rolling shutdowns, curtailing production.
Detroit-based General Motors Co's spokesperson said last month, "the stoppages are due to the shortage of semiconductors, and yes, production decreased due to the shortage."
delivery times for chips jumped in December, signaling the semiconductor shortage is worsening.
"We have seen a spike in the number of labor going out into quar****ne," Port Authority Director Sam Ruda said. The average wait time for a container ship is about 4.75 days in the final week of 2021, compared with an average of 1.6 days for the entire year.
Running at full capacity since the chaos began in early 2020, the port handled 27% more cargo in November 2021 than it did in November 2019. So any disruption to labor has made it susceptible to a backlog.
"We've essentially had five years of cargo growth in the space of 18, 20 months or so," he said.
Ruda said the number of vessels sitting off port was approximately 12 to 13 to start the new year and down to 9 this past Wednesday. By Friday, ships at anchor increased to 11.
"On an order of magnitude, it does seem quite small, but it does have our attention," he said.
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Illinois Residents Begin Mad Dash For The Exit, Surge Hits Record Levels As Citiens Complain About..
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Illinois’ population declined by a record 113,776 residents from July 2020-July 2021, according to estimates released Dec. 21 by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This marks the eighth consecutive year of population decline for Illinois, according to Census Bureau estimates. The only state that’s population has been in decline longer, West Virginia, currently is suffering its ninth consecutive year of population decline.
Illinois’ population declined by a record 113,776 residents from July 2020-July 2021, according to estimates released Dec. 21 by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This marks the eighth consecutive year of population decline for Illinois, according to Census Bureau estimates. The only state that’s population has been in decline longer, West Virginia, currently is suffering its ninth consecutive year of population decline.
Illinois continues to see a natural increase in population as births outpace deaths, but by an increasingly narrow margin.
It also is gaining residents from abroad. But so many people are moving out of Illinois to other states that the state’s total population is in decline.
Illinois continues to see a natural increase in population as births outpace deaths, but by an increasingly narrow margin. It also is gaining residents from abroad. But so many people are moving out of Illinois to other states that the state’s total population is in decline.
Illinoisans have thought about moving away, and they said taxes were their No. 1 reason. Population decline also contributes to the lower economic prospects of the state.
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Tesla Recalls 475,000 US Vehicles, 24% Of All Teslas Ever Made. After Elon Dumps 10% Of Shares
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Tesla announced a recall for what amounts hundreds of thousands of vehicles.
The latest quality control issue stems from opening and closing the trunk lid that may damage the rearview camera cable harness and increase the risk of a crash. Tesla filed a recall with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) on Dec. 21 for 356,309 U.S. vehicles that could be prone to wiring harness damage, reports on Thursday morning revealed.
There was also a recall of 119,009 2014-21 Model S U.S. vehicles that had a front trunk latch assembly possibly misaligned, preventing the secondary hood latch from engaging.
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Real Wages Plummet As Inflation Devours The Poor, False CPI Data Masks Total Collapse
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Real personal incomes fell 0.2% in November despite a healthy gain in nominal income.
Personal income from all sources, including wages, salaries, interest dividends, rental income, unemployment, Social Security, etc. rose by 0.4% in November. Year on year, personal income is up a healthy 7.4%, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis today. (Keep in mind a chunk of this yearly gain came from government stimulus.)
But when you adjust for the worst inflation in 40 years, real income actually fell last month. That means you have more dollars, but you can’t buy as much with them. It was the fourth straight monthly decline in real income. Compared to a year ago, real income from all sources was up by only 1.6%.
Pulling out all of the government money, compensation from wages and salaries in November rose by 0.5% for the month. That’s good, right?
But when adjusted for inflation, total compensation fell by 0.2% in November.
This Place Is Awesome, Office Tour Of Our New Oficinas In Queretaro. There Is Even More Work Now
Hey guys I have been going through some very rough times but here is our new offices in Santiago De Queretaro MX. We are incorporating under a different name and Lord Willing this will become a incubator for all my endless ideas and projects. Honesly I have so much on my plate right now that I only have more work.
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McDonalds Fries Hit By Food Shortages As Company Promises To Find More Spuds
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supply chain problem has materialized for McDonald's Holdings Co. Japan is forcing it to ration french fries for at least a week due to a potatoes shortage.
Beginning on Friday, Japanese consumers desiring a classic Big Mac will be barred from ordering medium- and large-sized french fries. They will be only allowed to order small french fries as the company blames massive flooding in Vancouver for its soggy mess and attempts to source spuds elsewhere.
About 2,900 McDonald's restaurants in the country will experience french fry rationing for at least this week "to ensure that as many customers as possible will have continued access to our french fries,"
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Retail Sales Collapse In November, Consumers Checked Out As Inflation Wrecks Buying Conditions
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headline retail sales rose just 0.3% MoM (well below the +0.8% MoM expected) Core retail sales also missed (ex-autos and ex-autos-and-gas). What this means is despite the assurances from major banks this was going to be a stellar holiday shopping season the consumers didn't agree. We knew that foot traffic this black friday collapsed by more than 75% at brick and mortar retailers. but it looks like the consumers are on their last leg.
Insiders & Private Equity Investors Are Dumping Stock At Near Record Pace, Turkey Halts Stocks Twice
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This week - Goldman Sachs and Bank of America focused on the chaos inside long duration (Nasdaq) equities. Goldman´s Tony Pasquariello said:
“a screaming dislocation has emerged between long-duration equities (which have been falling apart - ARK Names, Software, long duration cash flows) and long duration itself (the yield on the 30 year long bond is near YTD lows). Elements of capitulation are starting to accumulate and there are clear footprints of major risk reduction.”
Pasquariello notes Goldman´s PB (prime broker) data reveals the largest net selling over any 10-day period since April of 2020. Likewise - insider selling looks to be 2 standard deviations greater than any quarter looking back over the last 6 years. In November, insiders unloaded a collective $15.59 billion - an all-time record).
They also showed Private Equity insiders are unloading stock in size. Over the last two quarters, PE deals and exits have been completed deals at their highest levels relative to trends in at least the last 20 years.
all trades on Turkey’s benchmark stock index Borsa Istanbul 100 were halted after a sudden plunge in stocks - which until now were trading gingerly higher as one would expect in a time of runaway inflation - triggering a market-wide circuit breaker.
Trading of equities, equity derivatives and debt repo transactions were “halted temporarily” at 4:24 p.m. in Istanbul after the index reversed gains and fell as much as 5%, according to a public filing. Trading was scheduled to restart at 4:54 p.m, however we are confident it will only lead to more selling.
And this is what the realization that hyperinflation has arrived and may not be good for stocks looks like:
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The Stock Market Isn't Nearly As Exciting As Reported, In Fact, The Floor Is Starting To Get Thin
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barely 40% of the Nasdaq's 3,000+ stocks were trading above their 200 day moving average. a chart comparing the broader S&P and the median stock (via the Value Line Geometric) showed a similar theme: barely a handful of stocks were propelling the entire market higher. Goldman had a chilling warning about the condensed market breadth and the history of lower returns or losses following periods of low market breadth. Their research shows just 5 stocks represented most of the gains in the stock market and most stocks have been either boring or loss makers. This also means if only a few stocks can propel the market higher they could also leave outsized drops much faster than investors may be ready for
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Producer Price Index Crushes Exp's Ripping A Record 9.6% YOY, The Real Inflation Hasn't Even Begun
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Producer Prices tore through expectations printing a record-breaking 9.6% YoY rise crushing expectations of +9.2% and well above the +8.6% YoY for October. core PPI surged:
Ex-food and energy +7.7% YoY vs +7.2% exp and +6.8% prior
Ex-food, energy, and trade +6.9% YoY vs +6.3% prior
Both Goods and Services prices rose with Energy and Transportation costs the biggest drivers.
Within final demand goods in November, prices for iron and steel scrap rose 10.7 percent. The indexes for gasoline, fresh fruits and melons, fresh and dry vegetables, industrial chemicals, and jet fuel also moved higher. Conversely, prices for diesel fuel decreased 2.6 percent. The indexes for processed young chickens and for light motor trucks also fell.
Leading the November increase in the index for final demand services, prices for portfolio management advanced 2.9 percent.
In short the inflation was never transitory and we haven't seen anything yet.
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