Bank Earnings are Mixed as Retail Sales Disappoint
This morning saw a mixed bag of earnings reports from several banks across the US. Some saw a boost from net interest margin as others were hampered by expensive borrowings to meet withdrawals and a slowdown in deal making. Meanwhile retail sales for the month of June came in below expectations as inflation-strapped consumers adjust their spending patterns.
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#bankearnings #bankrun #retailsales
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China's Economy Goes From Bad to Worse, Russia Scraps Grain Deal
The economic data coming out of China just keeps getting worse. This time it was a disappointing second quarter GDP accompanied by the highest youth unemployment rate in the country's history. Elsewhere Russia has terminated a deal struck last year to allow shipments of Ukrainian Grain via The Black Sea. This is driving grain prices higher this morning.
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#chinaeconomy #Recession
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Brace Yourselves. Regional Bank Earnings Are Coming.
Next week will be the moment of truth for this nascent bull market as dozens of regional banks across the country will report their second quarter earnings. Already wounded from the deposit flight and panic that saw several of the largest bank failures in US history, these small fish in a big pond have lost market share to their larger rivals and been forced to take out expensive debt to sustain themselves. With more than 80% of US Commercial Real Estate Debt sitting on the balance sheets of Regional Lenders, next week is make or break for markets. Will it sound the all clear for stock to continue ripping higher? Or will the few remaining bears be vindicated?
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Earnings Season Begins as Big Banks See Windfall from Crisis
Earnings season is off to a good start as megabanks JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Citi have all reported better than expected earnings that showed a windfall from the deposit flight earlier this year. As depositors ran on small and regional banks in the spring, that money was driven into the arms of the big banks that were viewed as "Too Bigger to Fail" than their smaller counterparts. This has resulted in earnings growth that was partially offset by loan loss provisions and warning about macro-headwinds across the economy.
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#earnings #bankrun #bankearnings
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Epic Dollar Breakdown Continues, PPI on the Brink of Deflation
The US dollar is continuing it's plunge this morning with the US Dollar Index (DXY) threatening a break below 100. This comes as the US Producer Price Index rose just 0.1% year over year, the lowest reading since December of 2021. However markets remain Fed-Focused and this is being viewed as good news by those longing for the days of zero interest rate policy and overheating money printers.
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#PPI #DXY #deflation
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Markets Rip on CPI Beat as Earnings Season Looms
The major indexes are all sharply higher this morning ahead of the opening bell after a lower than expected Consumer Price Index came in at 3.0%. As traders take a victory lap over the Fed seemingly vanquishing the inflation monster it's now time to think about earnings season, which kicks off Friday with the first big banks.
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#CPI #inflation #recession
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Live: CPI Release
Watch the Consumer Price Index release live. For the month of June the headline CPI is expected to come in at 5.0% year over year and 0.3% month over month. Core CPI which omits food and energy prices is expected to come in at 5.0% year over year.
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#CPI #inflation #EndTheFed
4
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Is BRICS Really Going Back on The Gold Standard?
Gold bugs and dollar bears are going bananas over a recent story that the Russian Government has "confirmed" that the BRICS countries will be launching a new gold-backed currency in August. But is that what really happened? Where did this story come from? Why would Brics do this? Why haven't they done it already? And why did the United States even abandon the gold standard in the first place?
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#BRICS #gold #goldstandard
5
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Consumer Credit Slows to a Crawl as Used Car Prices Crash
US Consumers are showing signs of weakness after consume credit grew by just $7.24 billion in June, far below expectations of $20.25B. In a related story, used car prices fell by more than 10% year over year according to Manheim as higher interest rates and tightening lending standards have squeezed auto shoppers. Credit contraction and lower car prices are yet another indicator that deflation is coming.
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#recession #deflation #usedcars
103
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Owner Bails on 19 Hotels as Regional Bank Worries Resurface
Real Estate Investment Trust Ashford Inc has announced that they will 'likely' return a pool of 19 hotels to their lender (aka stop making payments) in another sign that the bursting of the Commercial Real Estate bubble has begun. This along with rising interest rates are stoking fears of a continued regional bank crisis in the US heading into earnings season which begins later this week.
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#commercialrealestate #deflation #bankrun
7
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Tech Rallies as Soft Jobs Report Eases Fed Fears
A glimpse beyond the headline number in today's non-farm payrolls report confirms what I've been saying for months: the "strong labor market" is a lie. After today's lackluster report, the dollar is falling sending stocks higher with tech names leading the charge. But behind the curtain, there is liquidity and interest rate trouble brewing in the banks and bond market that tech investors seem happy to ignore.
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#jobsreport #EndTheFed #recession
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Jobs Report Surprises Low After ADP Surprised High Yesterday
The US economy added 209K jobs in the month of June according to the latest Non-Farm Payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that is in stark contrast to the private sector payrolls report yesterday from ADP that said the US added 497K.
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#jobsreport #nonfarmpayrolls #unemployment
5
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ADP Reports Massive Job Gains as 10yr Yield Breaks Out
The US economy added 497K private sector jobs in June according a report released by ADP this morning which has stocks falling as investors are worried about what the Fed might do in response. Meanwhile interest rates continue to creep higher and the US 10 year treasury yield appears to have broken out from an 8 month bull flag pattern suggesting there is more to come.
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#jobsreport #ADP #interestrates
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Stocks Selloff Amid Flurry of Economic Data
Stocks are lower across the board this morning after several days that saw economic data come in below forecast. Manufacturing and Composite PMIs across the globe are lagging and bankruptcies are rising and the Logistics Managers Index just put in another all time low. There are silver lining however as India's economy continues to grow substantially, 4th of July travel set records, and US auto sales are proving stubbornly resilient.
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#recession #PMI #logistics
4
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OPEC+ Extends Oil Cuts, Cars Less Affordable Than Ever
Russia and Saudi Arabia have both announced they will extend previously announced oil production cuts of 1.5M barrels per day through August adding to an already tight oil supply that has thus far had little effect on oil prices. Meanwhile the car market is less affordable than ever just as student loan payments are set to resume for 1 in 10 adults and China's property market is falling once again after a short-lived rally earlier this year.
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#oil #OPEC #recession
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Market Rallies as PCE Shows Inflation Continues to Fall
Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, came in at just 3.8% year over year today in another sign that inflation is falling rapidly. Core PCE inflation which does not account for food and energy came in at 4.6% in a sign of somewhat "sticky" core inflation.
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3
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"Strong and Resilient" Banks Pass Stress Test Surprising Nobody
America's largest banks were declared "strong and resilient" after passing their annual stress test in a story that should come as a shock to absolutely nobody. Elsewhere TD Bank had a nationwide credit/debit card outage yesterday afternoon that nobody is talking about. There has been no mention of it in the financial press nor has any press release been issued by the bank. The issue appears to have been resolved last night. Also jobless claims for the week took a step down to 239,000 and first quarter GDP was revised higher to 2.0% from 1.3% which has the market pricing in a more aggressive Federal Reserve this morning.
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#Banks #StressTest #EndTheFed
2
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Nvidia Drops on Rumor of Exports Controls
Market darling and posterchild for the AI FOMO rally Nvidia is down this morning on reports that the US government is considering restrictions on the export of chips technology related to artificial intelligence.
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#Nvidia #AI #Ford
44
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EV Maker Files For Bankruptcy, Walgreens Crashes
An electric truck maker, was previously the beneficiary of the SPAC boom and the easy money of the early 2020s, has just filed for bankruptcy as once again EVs struggle to live up to the hype that permeates the industry. Elsewhere Walgreen stock is getting clobbered this morning after the company slashed it's full-year earnings guidance by 10%. Also durable goods orders in the US beat expectations by a wide margin thanks mostly to a surge in non-defense aircraft.
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#LordstownMotors #Walgreens #DurableGoods
3
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PacWest Sells $3.5B Loan Book, Blackstone Sells $3.1B of Warehouses
Deals are happening this morning as PacWest Bancorp just announced the sale of a large swath of their loan portfolio in an effort to raise capital. Elsewhere real estate giant Blackstone has announced they are selling $3.1B worth of industrial properties, predominantly warehouse space. There's a great deal of money and assets moving this morning, what does it all mean?
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Turkey's Shocking Rate Hike Isn't Enough to Save the Lira
The central bank of Turkey just implemented a massive 650 basis point rate hike and yet the market views this as too little too late as the collapse of the Lira continues. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's new central bank governor, Hafize Gaye Erkan has been brought in to reverse the country's laughable "Erdogan-omics" policy where interest rates were lowered to fight inflation. She's got her work cut out for her.
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#Lira #Turkey #Erdogan
132
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Stocks: The Eternal Fountain of Unending Profits!
Stocks are wrapping up a week that saw non-stop gains across the board despite wave after wave of economic data that makes it painfully obvious to anyone who bothers to look that there is a severe global recession coming, if not already underway. Surely this rally will last forever right...right?
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#recession #EndTheFed #stockmarket
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Wall Street Just Started Dumping Houses They Bought in 2021!
Starwood Capital Group just announced that they are exploring the sale of some 2,000 houses that they purchased at the peak of the mania in 2021 that saw big Wall Street investment firms buying up single family homes at all time high prices. It turns out those trades were a bust and now these firms are bleeding cash and looking to unwind those trades provided a (small) glimmer of hope for millennials and first time home buyers who thought the dream of home ownership had been stolen from them.
Chapters
0:00 Intro
0:31 Two Thousand Houses Hit The Market
1:47 An $80 Million Impairment
3:04 Starwood Froze Withdrawals
4:13 Barry Sternlicht's Call on Rent and CPI
6:47 An Illiquid Housing Market
8:21 It's Still Cheaper to Rent
9:30 A Light at the End of The Tunnel
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#RealEstate #HousingMarket #inflation
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Myriad of New Data Shows Deflationary Forces Building
Several economic data points released just this morning all point to the same thing: deflationary forces are building in the economy, both in the US and overseas.
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#deflation #recession #EndTheFed
18
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PPI Surprises Low in Further Sign of Rapidly Falling Inflation
The Producer Price Index came in at 1.1% year over year this morning, well below market expectations of 1.5%, continuing the rapid descent of the last few months. This is yet another indicator that inflation is falling rapidly and that we are headed toward a deflationary recession.
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Rich Dad Poor Dad by Robert Kiyosaki: https://amzn.to/3rJvA7Y
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Why We Need The Fed (blank gag book) by Joe Brown: https://amzn.to/403amBS
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#PPI #inflation #recession
45
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