ZIRP and QE are Coming Back! It's a Mathematical Certainty
The US Govts addiction to debt spending is now so widely known that few have noticed the exponential, self-destructive acceleration that has recently taken place. It is now a mathematical certainty that we are heading towards a deflationary debt death spiral and at some point in the not-too-distant future, The Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates back to near-zero and turn the money printers back on.
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#ZIRP #EndTheFed #recession
101
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Jobs Report Disappoints. Amazon Beats. Apple Slide Continues
The US economy added 187,000 jobs in the month of July, coming up short of the 200K the market was hoping for. This comes after Amazon reported a stellar quarter by any measure as growth returned to every segment of it's business. Apple on the other hand posted it's 3rd consecutive sales decline and forecast for a fourth.
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#JobsReport #Amazon #Apple
35
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Mixed Signals Ahead of Tomorrow's Jobs Report
Tomorrow the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release it's Non-Farm Payrolls Report otherwise known as "The Jobs Number." At the moment the labor market data is sending mixed signals and with the Federal Reserve worried about wage increases causing a surge in inflation, tomorrow's report will move markets one way or another. Let's look behind the numbers to see what the job market is telling us.
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#JobsReport #LaborMarket #EndTheFed
57
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Stocks Selloff on Bond Market Rout, Oil Trickery Provokes Saudis
Stocks and bonds are both selling off again this morning as the market rout following the Fitch downgrade of the US credit rating along with worries about US govt borrowing and possible Bank of Japan interventions are causing a ruckus in the global debt market. Elsewhere politician shenanigans continue in the now distorted oil market as massive changes to oil inventory data and continued delays in refilling the strategic petroleum reserve has markets worried about Saudi supply-cut retaliation.
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#BondMarket #Fitch #Oil
38
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Do "They" Actually Want a Financial Crisis?
Lynette Zang, Chief Market Analyst at @itmtrading joins us to talk about the state of the global economy as Central Bankers around the world continue to tighten financial conditions in response to an inflation disaster of their own making, leaving the average person holding the bag.
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#EndTheFed #LynetteZang #Gold
100
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2
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Fitch Cuts US Credit Rating & Economists are Acting Surprised
The US long term credit rating has been cut by Fitch from AAA to AA+, only the second time in history this has happened after S&P did the same in August of 2011. Economists like Larry Summers and Mohamed El-Erian are pretending to be shocked at the downgrade. But really, who are they kidding?
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#Fitch #USCredit #Downgrade
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Mall Values Have Collapsed & Pensions Holding The Bag
The Crystal Mall in Waterford Connecticut is the embodiment of everything wrong with the US economy. After years of easy money courtesy of The Federal Reserve inflated the Commercial Real Estate bubble now The Fed's rate hikes have popped it. The mall was just sold at foreclosure auction for pennies on the dollar after a series of high profile retail bankruptcies including JC Penney, Bed Bath & beyond, and Christmas Tree Shops.
Chapters:
0:00 Intro
1:03 The Crystal Mall in Waterford, CT
2:34 The Fed's Fingerprints
4:15 The Risk to Pensions
7:00 A Trip Around The Mall
8:59 Crystal Mall is Not Alone
10:02 "Optimism"
10:50 What to do with the building?
12:27 Long Story Short
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#commercialrealestate #CMBS #EndTheFed
22
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Yields & Dollar Rise, Freight & Manufacturing Decline Continues
Debt and foreign exchange markets are becoming chaotic as central banks and government borrowing worldwide continue to make a mess. The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged while the Chinese Govt strongly "suggested" that their banks delay buying dollars. Meanwhile the US treasury forecasts for borrowing in the remainder of 2023 came in even higher than the worst bears were expecting. All of this while manufacturing and logistics markets are crashing and the financial press is saying "all clear, soft landing, no recession."
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#DXY #logistics #recession
14
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The Real Estate Market is an Emotional Mess
Travis from @realestatemindset joins us to talk about the housing market which he describes as "an emotional mess" where fear of missing out is driving home buyers to jump in recklessly without a plan.
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#RealEstate #housingmarket #recession
8
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Yellow Out of Business, Bank of Japan Could Ruin The Party
Less than Truckload shipping carrier Yellow has officially gone out of business after ceasing all operations mid day yesterday. The company had over a billion dollars in debt and 30,000 employees. Also last night the Bank of Japan announced an unscheduled bond buying operation as the Central Bank intervened to slow the rise of interest rates on Japanese Government Bonds. Japan has long been considered the "anchor" of global debt markets, and the recent change to it's Yield Curve Control policy is threatening to upend global debt markets.
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#Yellow #BOJ #Yen
11
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Heartland Tri-State Bank Seized By FDIC. What Really Happened?
Heartland Tri-State Bank has failed and joined the ranks of Silvergate Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank, Signature Bank, Credit Suisse, and PacWest who are either failed or were rescued just prior to failure just in the first half of this year. So does this mean the banking crisis that began in the spring is about to start up again or is something else happening here?
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#bankrun #bankingcrisis #FDIC
16
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JP Morgan Got Even Bigger as Money Supply Mysteriously Grows
The lesson from the Global Financial Crisis was supposed to be that banks should not be allowed to become "too big to fail." Any bank claiming to be too big to fail was therefore also too big to exist. But you would never know based on the banking crisis of 2023 that saw the biggest banks getting even bigger even as regulators declared their smaller rivals were now too big to fail. The net result is the big dogs get bigger as the little guys get gobbled up. That got even worse this week after JP Morgan bought up the leftovers from PacWest Bank at a discount. As always, you can see it in the charts. Put on your Tin Foil Hats, this one could get ugly!
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#bankrun #EndTheFed #recession
7
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BOJ Leans Hawkish, Intel Earnings Propel Nasdaq
The bank of Japan followed through last night on yesterday's leaked article in Nikkei suggesting the central bank would begin to ease off on it's ultra-dovish Yield Curve Control policy, sending Japanese government bond yields higher. Elsewhere Intel reported earnings after the close yesterday that surprised to the upside after significant cost cuts and layoffs helped the company return to profitability. This has the entire chips sector on the rise driving the Nasdaq higher this morning.
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#BOJ #Intel #EndTheFed
5
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Market Euphoria Wanes As Interest Rates Rise
Markets abruptly shifted from peak euphoria this morning after a seemingly goldilocks GDP report, to suddenly being worried about a possible credit event after Central Bankers from around the world today sent the dollar surging higher and interest rates rose sharply. Is this the end of the nascent bull market and AI hysteria?
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#BOJ #EndTheFed #ECB
5
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US Economy Grew 2.4% in Q2. Here is Where the Growth Is...
US GDP rose by a larger than expected 2.4% in the second quarter despite a banking crisis, a decline in manufacturing, and consumers strapped by inflation. So where is the growth coming from?
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#GDP
4
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Live: Fed Chair Jerome Powell's FOMC Press Conference
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference following the Fed's July FOMC meeting and the expected 25 basis point (0.25%) increase in the Fed Funds Rate. Investors are looking for clues as to whether The Fed will continue along the path of "higher for longer" or is the much anticipated "Pivot" finally here? The Fed is attempting to thread the needle by fighting inflation without causing widespread chaos in the financial system. Although inflation has fallen considerably this year, it remains above the Fed's 2% target. Yet at the same time, the central bank's quantitative tightening and interest rate hikes have set off a chain of events that has resulted in the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and most recently First Republic Bank.
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#EndTheFed
8
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Fed Suggests 2 More Hikes, Mega Cap Tech Earnings Are Mixed
A recent article at the WSJ is suggesting that there will be at least two more rate hikes this year, including the one expected later today. The writer of this article has a reputation for being the Fed's Mouthpiece in the financial press during blackout periods suggesting that this message is coming from Jerome Powell himself. Meanwhile MegaCap tech earnings yesterday were mixed with lackluster growth figures from Microsoft being partially offset by a big beat from Google parent Alphabet.
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#EndTheFed #recession
4
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UPS & Teamsters Resume Talks to Avoid Strike, GM & 3M Earnings Beat
UPS has resumed talks with the Teamsters in a last ditch effort to avoid a strike as the August 1st deadline set by the union looms. Elsewhere automaker GM and industrial supply manufacturer 3M both reported better than expected earnings.
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#UPS #Teamsters #recession
17
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WorldCoin: It's Even Worse Than You Think!
Today marks the launch of Worldcoin, the single creepiest thing to come out of silicon valley since...yesterday. Complete with an eyeball-scanning orb that ties your crypto wallet to your biometric data, this is just about the most fertile soil for conspiracy theories I've seen since...yesterday.
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Wheat Prices Spike After Russian Attack on Danube River Port
Wheat futures are up more than 5% this morning after Russia expanded it's recent spate of attacks. Russian attacks are now reaching further west all the way to the Danube River which borders Poland after a week of attacks on the Black Sea port of Odessa.
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#Wheat #russiaukrainewar #recession
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Auto Loan Rejections Higher Than Ever. Watch This Before Buying a Car!
According to the Federal Reserve, more Americans than ever are being rejected for a new car loan. This drove me to do a deep dive into the state of the new car market and what I found was nothing short of a perfect storm on the horizon for the auto market. Watch this before you buy a new car!
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#NewCars #AutoLoans #EndTheFed
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Bullet-Dodging Bull Market Shows First Signs of Weakness
After weeks and weeks of relentless "Number Go Up," stocks finally showed their first signs of faltering this week. With bank earnings largely behind us, it seemed the market was poised to continue higher until lackluster reports from Netflix and Tesla caused a pull back. With earnings season hitting it's peak next week and a Federal Reserve still putting the screws to borrowers, can this bullet-dodging market continue to move higher?
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#BigTechEarnings #Recession #EndTheFed
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Amex Prepares for Wave of Defaults, Major Trucking Co on the Brink
American Express stock is lower this morning after the company reported strong earnings numbers that were overshadowed by the company setting aside a large amount of cash in anticipation of future consumer defaults. Meanwhile Yellow, one of the largest LTL trucking companies in the US is teetering on the edge after the company missed payments to it's employees healthcare and Pension funds which has the Teamsters threatening an immediate strike as drivers are set to lose healthcare coverage by Monday.
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#AmericanExpress #Yellow #Recession
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Big Earnings Just Came Out and It's Not Pretty!
Between last night and this morning the market has seen disappointing earnings and forecast numbers from the likes of Netflix, Tesla, Taiwan Semiconductor, and Blackstone. It would appear that the market's sigh of relief following last week's big bank earnings may have been premature. Meanwhile the threat of the Commercial Real Estate bubble looms on the horizon as defaults and plummeting prices has spread beyond the west coast.
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#Netflix #Tesla #Blackstone
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Goldman Profit Drops 58%, Russia Sends Grain Prices Soaring
Goldman Sachs earnings expectations were already in the gutter after weeks of warnings and red flags from the world's largest investment bank. But even that didn't stop them from missing already low expectations with a massive 58% drop in second quarter earnings vs a year ago. Elsewhere the price of corn and wheat are surging this morning after a second night of Russian missile strikes on the Ukrainian port of Odessa following Russia's exit from the Black Sea Grain Deal that was allowing vital food exports out of the warzone.
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#GoldmanSachs #BankEarnings #russiaukrainewar
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