Housing Market Update: Crash or Boom? Dr. Lawrence Yun, National Association of REALTORS
Jason Hartman explores the latest housing market data with returning guest Dr. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research at the National Association of Realtors®.
The Federal Reserve has raised the interest rate only one time this year, yet we see how fast the mortgage rates are rising. However, if one looks at the past history, you can see that at times when the Fed aggressively raised interest rates, the mortgage rate barely budged. So is it possible that most of the mortgage rate increases this year may have already occurred? Will any further jacking up of the interest rate by the Fed necessarily have any meaningful impact on mortgage rates? According to Dr. Yun, the wildcard here is inflation and whether or not it continues to rise due to unforeseen events currently happening around the world.
Lawrence Yun is Chief Economist and oversees the Research group at the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. He supervises and is responsible for a wide range of research activity for the association including NAR’s Existing Home Sales statistics, Affordability Index, and Home Buyers and Sellers Profile Report. He regularly provides commentary on real estate market trends for its 1.4 million REALTORS®.
Dr. Yun creates NAR’s forecasts and participates in many economic forecasting panels, among them the Blue Chip Council and the Wall Street Journal Forecasting Survey. He also participates in the Industrial Economists Discussion Group at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. He appears regularly on financial news outlets, is a frequent speaker at real estate conferences throughout the United States, and has testified before Congress. Dr. Yun has also appeared as a guest on CSPAN’s Washington Journal.
Dr. Yun received his undergraduate degree from Purdue University and earned his Ph.D. from the University of Maryland at College Park.
0:00 Welcome returning guest Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research at the National Association of Realtors
1:01 How long can this red hot housing market continue?
2:20 What does this mean for first time home buyers?
5:20 The cost burden has increased because of the home prices, but not in terms of the mortgage rate
7:46 What are the current housing inventory levels?
11:10 MLS - contigent and pending sales
12:17 Defining a balanced market
14:23 Will the market cool off with these higher rates?
15:42 Further interest rate hikes by the Fed may not have any meaningful impact on the mortgage rate
19:00 You can now buy a $1M home with an FHA loan in some areas
22:07 NARs chart on housing starts
24:14 Builders are not building entry level homes
26:47 Are we going to have a housing shortage for many, many years to come?
29:10 Boom in the home improvement industry
30:36 Possible inventory adjustment due to recent events
33:08 Job and housing market correlation
35:13 Multiple bids on rental units among renters
36:06 Do you see large investment companies continuing to buy more properties over the coming years?
38:31 There is a labor shortage across America
39:35 Increasing number of realtors
41:55 Increased home sales, increased prices but not increased ownership
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Ken McElroy, Jason Hartman & George Gammon - Three Amigos & Beer LIVE Q&A
Ken McElroy, Jason Hartman & George Gammon - Three Amigos & Beer LIVE Q&A
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How to Reduce Your Taxes With Real Estate Investing - Best Real Estate Tax Benefits w/ George Gammon
Jason Hartman and George Gammon discuss how to reduce your taxes with real estate investing and the best tax benefits for real estate investors.
0:00 Introduction
3:11 Any penalty for switching to a self-directed IRA?
3:58 Financing a property inside an IRA
5:19 Is an IRA necessary for real estate investing
8:49 No tax on borrowed money
10:04 The best tax benefit: depreciation
12:14 IRS schedule for depreciation
13:31 Depreciation deduction calculation
14:27 Qualifying as a real estate professional
15:42 The double inflation arbitrage
17:43 Portfolio after 12 years
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The Benefits of Residential Real Estate Investing - with George Gammon
In this video, Jason and George Gammon discuss the benefits of residential real estate investing, inflation, apartment buildings, commercial property, and the power of leverage.
0:00 Introduction
1:18 Linear markets, the importance of being area agnostic and having a good team
3:59 Important team members: property managers, lenders, 1031 exchange providers, self-directed IRA providers
4:40 The value of the Jason Hartman Team
8:40 Equity tied up in a property represents an opportunity cost.
11:04 1031 tax-deferred exchange, income property is the most tax-favored asset
15:52 Commercial v residential real estate investing, office buildings, retail apocalypse, and the constant need for somewhere to live. Financing in the single-family home world is the most favored asset class in America
26:18 Pros and cons of multifamily v residential. Tax benefits, favorable loan terms, tenant quality
34:31 The power of leverage, fixed rate for 3 decades
36:03 All roads lead to inflation
43:31 Income property is the best wealth creating asset class in the entire world
47:26 Pro forma analysis
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How the Current Rental Market Is Affecting Real Estate Investors & Where to Go From Here
Steven Thomas is with us today to share some market data that will help us gain better insights into what’s happening and what we should be doing to ensure profitability in today’s market. We are talking about inventory status, rental market conditions, and how the recent changes are going to affect you as a real estate investor.
Listen now to stay updated on trends in the real estate market so you can plan ahead!
Key Talking Points of the Episode
[00:00] Introduction
[02:25] What is the right way to think about real estate investing?
[05:02] How are inventory numbers doing today?
[10:11] What will happen if inventory continues to increase at this rate?
[14:55] What was the market like in 2015?
[18:28] Who is Steven Thomas?
[19:30] Why are people hesitating to let go of their properties?
[21:55] Have we ever been in a market like we have today?
[22:50] How long will the impact of inflation affect the market?
[27:54] Will mobile mortgages be implemented soon?
[29:07] What will the CPI be like in the coming years?
[33:07] How is inflation affecting society today?
[36:23] Why is the model for supply and demand broken?
[38:33] What markets are seeing inventory catching up to pre-COVID levels?
[39:48] What will happen to wages in this high-inflation economy?
[41:10] What should we be expecting to happen in the market?
[43:50] What makes the current condition of the market different?
[45:01] Why should people focus more on rental properties?
[48:50] How can you reach out to Steven?
[49:05] The Collective Mastermind Group
Quotables
“Income doesn’t mean you have a ton of positive cash flow because hopefully, you’re using leverage on your properties. It just simply means that the asset is producing income to pay debts for you.”
“It’s not necessarily that many people are not ready to make a move, it’s just that they don’t want to because it’s so cost-prohibitive and when it gets this cost-prohibitive, they may not be in love with their home, but they’re in love with their loan.”
“The new underwriting has become so strict that the homeowners have good credit scores, they have low interest rates, 40% of loans in the country are paid off.”
“Overall, rents make the deal work and people, I really think should be more focused on that rental income than the housing prices because our people are not flipping these houses – they’re buying them and holding them for long-term income.”
“Income properties are pretty darn stable and the income component is quite reliable.”
Links
Website: Jason Hartman
https://www.jasonhartman.com
Website: Reports on Housing
https://reportsonhousing.com/
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Harry Dent Predicts The Next Economic Collapse
In this interview with Harry Dent, we discuss everything you need to know now about the economy. In times of uncertainty, we are all searching for information on what we can expect.
Harry analyzes patterns of the past in order to predict the future. Are we in a bubble?
Learn More: https://www.jasonhartman.com/
Connect with Harry Dent: https://www.youtube.com/user/hsdentfinancial
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America Is Increasingly, A Nation of Renters
Renting is finally an acceptable way of living. It's no longer seen as a waste of money. Renters don't get judged like they used to. People of all social classes are renting. It allows for more fluidity with living location. It's a great strategy and it is good for society.
The right homeownership rate should be around 50%.
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Is the SMART MONEY waiting or buying? Let's do the MATH.
Dumb or Smart to Wait for a Real Estate Crash? What Should You Do?
The WEALTH TRANSFER is happening FAST! Protect your financial future now! Did you know that 25% to 40% of all dollars ever created were dumped into the economy last year??? This will be devastating to some and an opportunity to others, be sure you’re on the right side of this massive wealth transfer. Learn from our experiences, maximize your ROI and avoid regrets.
George Gammon Speaking at Empowered Investor LIVE
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Altos Research Housing Market Update - What You Need To Know
Jason Hartman demonstrates that real estate is cheaper than we thought when adjusted for interest rates, and then is then joined by Mike Simonsen to discuss the current state of the housing market. Simonsen is the founder of Altos Research, which tracks every home for sale in the country and shows you the difference between understanding the market and understanding a specific property. Simonsen talks about the low inventory problem we are currently facing and reports that we currently have about one third of the typical inventory.
0:00 Introduction
0:51 Market predictions for 2022: bubble territory and market crash?
5:36 The importance of housing to the GDP
8:37 Real estate is much cheaper than we thought
13:54 Who can afford to buy houses right now? Who is driving the market?
15:11 Mike Simonsen, founder of Altos Research, gives his take on where this market is going. Are we are we overvalued on the verge of a crash?
16:39 Altos Research tracks every home for sale in the country
23:32 Alto Research shows you the difference between understanding the market and understanding a specific property
24:30 The conflict between the listing agent and the seller
27:36 Data shows a seller's market
29:52 Inventory levels are extremely low
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Constructing A New Labor Force To Build Our Homes - with Edward Brady | Home Builders Institute
Jason Hartman welcomes Edward Brady, CEO at HBI (Home Builders Institute) to discuss the problems facing the construction industry today. Will there soon be no workers to build our homes? Not if Edward Brady and the HBI can help it! We lost a generation of skilled labor to higher education, but the Home Builders Institute is addressing this labor shortage problem by investing in young people through meaningful and skilled training and creating a new labor force of home builders. The construction industry simply can't build fast enough to meet demand, but as real estate investors know better than anyone, there will always be a need for skilled labor in this country. There is a severe labor shortage, a lack of housing inventory and housing affordability, but what can be done? Jason Hartman and Edward Brady take on these problems and much more.
""HBI (Home Builders Institute) is a national nonprofit that provides training, curriculum development and job placement services for the building industry. With job placement rates at over 80 percent for graduates, HBI training programs are taught in local communities across the country to at-risk youth, veterans, transitioning military members, justice-involved youth and adults, and displaced workers""
0:00 Introduction
0:42 Jason Hartman's 2022 Real Estate Predictions video is coming up next week! So stayed tuned for his thoughts on housing inventory, mortgage rates, rent increases, housing prices, recession and a housing market crash
5:39 Millennial home buyers, home renovation boom and continued price increases in construction costs
8:24 George Soros and the idea of reflexivity
9:45 Jason's predictions and Hartman Comparison Index™ at George Gammon's Rebel Capitalist Live this weekend in Houston, Texas
13:27 Welcome Ed Brady, former chairman of the National Association of Homebuilders and current president and CEO at Home Builders Institute
15:23 Some perspective from the Nashville, Tennessee market
16:48 The Home Builders Institute is trying to address the labor shortage by creating a new labor force to build homes
18:50 Young people entering into the trade industry will have entrepreneurial opportunities
20:00 The future of manufactured homes
21:30 Home building efficiencies through advancing technology have increased significantly
23:16 We lost a generation of labor to higher education
25:44 How ""short"" is the industry? Can we put a number on it? How many jobs in the construction industry do we have to create and train to keep up with the demand on the housing?
27:05 Due to the pandemic, HBI was able to update their learning management systems, simulations and digital presence
28:42 How can we solve the affordability problem? What about zoning and other regulatory burdens?
30:55 Cost benefit analysis in building codes
33:39 Downpayment assistance and the Community Reinvestment Act
35:44 What percentage should the home ownership rate be?
37:24 The whole FICO score system is just totally outmoded
38:31 The construction industry simply can't build fast enough. We have to invest in our young people by giving them meaningful and skilled training
40:48 We will always have a need for skilled labor in this country
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How Millennials Are Investing - Daniel Kwak @The Kwak Brothers
Jason Hartman sits down with Daniel Kwak who gives us a little insight into the way Millennials are engaging with money and what they are investing in. Investing used to just be stocks, bonds and real estate, but the Millennial generation has grown up with a lot more options! Daniel talks about the psychology of the millennial investor when it comes to investing in cryptocurrencies, NFTs and digital assets and talks about a few up and coming trends in the real estate world.
Watch Jason's interview on The Kwak Brothers Channel here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Kc2l...
0:00 Investing used to be just stocks, bonds and real estate - now it's so much more!
1:52 Daniel Kwak's insight into the way Millennials engage with money and investing especially after the Great Recession
4:17 Millennials prefer experiences to things
5:59 AMC and Gamestop short selling and meme cryptos
8:19 Psychology of the millennial investor
9:50 Boomers and the wealth transfer
11:56 The utility of NFTs
14:24 Pros and cons of real estate vs digital assets
15:32 What will millennials do with their inherited money?
16:56 Coliving real estate trend - is it viable?
19:30 Find Daniel at TheKwakBrothers.com
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How to Earn $250k Per Year From Rental Properties | Refi 'Till Ya Die Strategy with George Gammon
Jason Hartman explains the best strategy to retire rich with rental properties. He and George Gammon discuss the Refi 'Till Ya Die strategy for real estate investing and explain a rental property portfolio plan to turn a $235k initial investment into $250k per year in tax-free income.
0:00 Introduction
1:24 Why is leverage powerful?
3:01 Self-liquidating debt
3:48 Most tax-efficient way to extract the wealth
4:25 The best asset protection is a high loan balance
6:23 The lender becomes your partner
8:08 Refi 'Till Ya Die example
9:44 The bank pays for 80% of income property
10:37 Why keep your properties leveraged up
11:46 The Rule of 72
14:48 The double inflation arbitrage
16:47 Portfolio after 12 years
18:57 Rents increase over time
21:47 Portfolio after 24 years
24:47 Reinvesting into more properties is like the perpetual motion machine
25:50 Portfolio after 36 years
27:53 Free video on how to analyze a real estate deal: https://www.jasonhartman.com/
29:12 Analyzing cash on cash return
31:24 Investments should pay you to own them
36:19 Comparison of Orange County, CA to Flint, Michigan
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Kelly Alexander: How to Pay Zero Income Tax (Legally)
It is possible to pay no income tax without going to jail. In this except from my latest podcast episode, with Kelly Alexander, she tells us exactly how to endorse our paycheck from our employer in a way that legally allows you 100% deduction on your taxes.
Listen to the full episode: https://www.jasonhartman.com/cw-1198-local-real-estate-investor-associations-a-way-to-pay-zero-income-tax-with-kelly-alexander/
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How Government Could Cause Massive Inflation: George Gammon Explains Actions by the Fed & Treasury
George Gammon says actions by the Fed and Treasury could cause massive inflation in the economy.
0:00 Introducing George Gammon
1:24 The Fed's ""Operation Twist""
3:23 The Treasury's checking account
6:18 Janet Yellen wants to draw down the TGA
8:08 $120 billion per month in QE by the Fed
11:38 Yield curve is steepening
12:16 Interest rates for T-Bills could go negative
14:13 The Fed's Operation Twist 2.0
15:57 What is the natural mortgage interest rate
16:43 Will there be inflation?
17:50 Average income of Americans have increased
21:40 Trade deficit is increasing
22:28 Hedge funds rely on treasuries
24:27 Next recession could be worse than 2008
25:08 Are debt numbers adjusted for inflation?
26:53 $5 trillion government deficit spending in 2020
28:59 Hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic
32:56 Book recommendation: Dying of Money
34:58 Money supply increased 25% in 2020
36:09 George's site: Georgegammon.com
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#inflation #thefed #georgegammon
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Brent Johnson: Dollar Strength in 2020, What is the Future of the Dollar?
Brent Johnson unpacks US dollar strength in 2020. What does the future hold for the US dollar over the next couple of years?
What is your prediction for the future of the US dollar?
For the next two to four years, the US will do pretty well relative to other countries. It doesn't mean things are good but it means it's better than everywhere else. As capital flows into the US, the dollar will get stronger and US dollar asset prices will go up. US stocks will rise, real estate in certain places will do okay, but commercial real estate is worrisome.
How is dollar strength affected by the global market for US dollars?
There's the US domestic dollar market and there's the eurodollar market. Because money is loaned into existence, you need monetary velocity to be taking place or you need credit expansion to be taking place. The monetary system is a system that is designed to grow. If it starts to go in reverse the whole thing cracks and it crashes. Whenever we get into a recession, the Fed or the central bank has to come in and plug that hole. They're there to issue new dollar collateral to re-collateralize the system. The problem is that the big market outside the United States exists as well, and the Fed does not have any jurisdiction over it and doesn't have the ability to re-collateralize that system when it crashes. The market has gotten so big, but now it's contracting. New dollar loans aren't being made so the whole system is starting to crack. But the only person or the only institution in the world that can issue new dollar collateral is the Fed. So what they have had to do is open swap lines, which is basically a way to give a foreign central bank dollars so that that central bank can then re-collateralize the system with dollars. But the problem is extremely big. It's in the trillions.
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Interest Rate Shock: What It Means For The Housing Market | Eric Basmajian, EPB Macro Research
Jason Hartman welcomes Eric Basmajian, economic analyst and founder of EPB Macro Research. Jason and Eric discuss the rapid decline in real personal income and standard of living, how the rate shock will filter through to the housing market and much more. Eric also talks about the single most important variable to understand where the next 10 years of the real estate market are going and the four corners of an economy: income, consumption, employment and production.
How far do our dollars actually go and how do we measure the standard of living in real terms? Eric looks for inflection points in long term economic cycles, what he calls secular economic trends, and cyclical trends to better position people for what's on the other side. We now have a rate shock being pushed onto the private sector which will cause a lot of problems as it filters through to the housing sector. So if you have no new home sales, or no new construction, and you have no existing home sales, how is that going to impact employment in the construction sector? How is that going to impact hours worked or hourly earnings in the construction sector? And as higher costs are being pushed onto the private sector, whether it's construction, food or gas prices, we're seeing a rapid decline in real personal income.
Eric Basmajian is an economic analyst providing research on the most critical secular and cyclical economic trends impacting interest rates and asset prices.
Learn about Eric's secular and cyclical framework: https://www.epbmacroresearch.com/
0:00 Welcome Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Macro Research
1:12 The Fed and increasing rates - did they panic?
5:26 Are we in for a 30 year housing shortage?
8:36 Homes for sale and permits for new construction
10:53 Higher costs pushed onto the private sector
13:35 As private borrowing rates increase, result will be a huge pullback in spending
15:29 Savings rate has come down substantially
16:45 The Consumer Price Index is understated
18:46 Almost no first time buyer market anymore
21:19 Working age demographics around the world
25:45 Secular economic trend predictions for the next 3-5+ years
26:42 Transfer of wealth from baby boomers to millennials
29:33 The single most important variable to understand where the next 10 years of the real estate market are going
33:17 The demand curve is set by those demographics
35:27 Immigration can help the demographic curve
37:05 Four corners of the economy: income, consumption, employment and production
38:43 Increasing talk of recession
41:39 We live in a centrally planned economy
44:18 Learn about Eric's secular and cyclical framework: https://www.epbmacroresearch.com/
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Can This Housing Market Continue?
Jason Hartman discusses some real estate market predictions based on data from Altos Research. Home buyers and sellers are looking forward to the coming year and wondering what will happen and what the housing market will bring? Will this market continue as is? Can these high home prices, continued demand and record low inventory levels persist?
0:00 Introduction: Will this market continue as is?
0:24 Income growth is not keeping up with housing prices
2:02 Rents are soaring
3:17 Demand will continue to be strong into 2022
5:15 How long are properties staying on the market?
6:55 We live in a centrally planned economy
8:58 High home prices, continued demand and record low inventory levels
10:36 Biden Administration is cracking down on cash transactions
11:59 Money is lent into existence
Learn More: https://www.jasonhartman.com/
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#jasonhartman #realestate #realestateinvesting #housingmarket #incomeproperty
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Trump TV & 2024 Run? What's Next for Donald Trump? "Trump Rules" Author Interview, Wayne Allyn Root
Wayne Allyn Root predicts whether Donald Trump will start a Trump TV network and run again in 2024. His new book, Trump Rules, explains Trump's rules for success.
Learn More: https://www.jasonhartman.com/
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#trumptv #trump2024 #wayneallynroot
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Harry Dent Explains How $3.44 Trillion Money Printing Will Crash Stocks and Real Estate
In this clip from Meet the Masters 2020, Harry Dent explains how the massive money printing by the Fed will crash stocks and real estate (in high priced markets). He recommends getting into safer assets like high-quality bonds and cash flow positive rental properties.
You can purchase the full recording of the Meet the Masters 2020 conference here: https://www.jasonhartman.com/recordings
0:00 Introducing Harry Dent
3:05 $20-$25 Trillion money printing globally since 2009
6:41 Repo crisis in Sept 2019
8:14 The Fed is buying corporate bonds
8:48 The top 20% own 88% of stocks
9:50 $3.44 trillion was printed in 8 months
12:48 Get into safer assets like cash flow rental properties and high-quality bonds
14:26 More baby boomers will sell their homes and become renters
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Dave Ramsey is WRONG! Why You Shouldn't Pay Off Your Mortgage Early - With George Gammon
Jason Hartman explains why Dave Ramsey is wrong about paying off your mortgage early and why you should pay it off as slowly as possible to take advantage of inflation.
0:00 Introduction
1:52 Ways US can get out of its debt problem
2:45 The government could default
3:28 The US could sell off assets
5:23 Government could inflate away debt
6:19 Inflation induced debt destruction
7:24 Inflation is a hidden tax
12:12 Buying a house in 1972 for $18,000
13:09 By 1984, a dollar was worth $0.40
15:22 Why you shouldn't pay off a mortgage early
17:09 The effective interest rate was 1.06%
18:07 Tax benefits lower the effective interest rate further
20:10 How does real estate perform in an economic collapse?
23:08 Income property is multi-dimensional
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Tale of Three Markets, What NAR is Saying About Home Prices
We are in a serious inflationary spiral and as real estate investors, we need to understand that the effects we are seeing and experiencing vary from one market to another.
Listen to this episode to learn more about what these factors are, what’s really going on, and what we should be expecting in the months to come!
Key Talking Points of the Episode
0:00 Introduction
01:11 What is the NAR saying about home prices?
03:23 What are new home builders experiencing today?
07:58 How can you see what’s really happening in different markets?
09:50 What news do we have on Wall Street and the crypto market?
11:10 What is the importance of investing directly?
14:06 How can income properties save your money?
15:56 Should the government continue getting involved in the rental market?
17:46 What are the bubble possibilities in different markets today?
21:40 What is the Hartman Comparison Index?
24:59 What are the 3 types of markets in the country?
30:20 What are the dogs that aren’t barking today?
33:35 What does housing inventory look like today in the US?
36:50 Why is it unlikely that a crash will happen soon?
40:58 Are we in a similar situation as the recession in 2008?
43:45 What can you compare real estate values with?
48:48 What happened to the economy during COVID?
51:33 Why should you be careful with your comparisons?
54:58 What makes the CPI misleading?
57:38 Where can you find the real inflation numbers?
01:01:36 Why do we feel like housing prices are unreasonable?
01:04:16 Does house pricing really matter?
01:06:12 What does affordability have to do with the rental market?
Quotables
“With income property, you’re going to make money and even if you don’t, even if you breakeven, at least you’re not gonna lose.” - Jason Hartman
“The game of real estate, as we all know for a season, is that over time, the prices are going to be higher than they are today.” - Jason Hartman
“People are so myopic because they are making bad comparisons. They’re comparing things to the way they were a year or two years ago, that is not the right comparison.” - Jason Hartman
“Anything in the world can be valued by 2 things – utility and scarcity.” - Jason Hartman
“The thing you always need to understand is that rents lag prices by a good 2 years, maybe really 3 years or more, it depends where.” - Jason Hartman
Links
Website: Empowered Investor Live
https://www.empoweredinvestor.com/live
Website: Jason Hartman
https://www.jasonhartman.com
Book: Debt: the First 5000 Years
https://www.amazon.com/Debt-First-5-0...
Website: Shadow Government Statistics
http://www.shadowstats.com/
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Housing Market CRASH Predictions With Eric Basmajian: Part 2
Jason Hartman and analyst Eric Basmajian continue their discussion on heart break and housing market crash predictions!
Watch Part 1 of this interview here: https://youtu.be/fBgdLa2Vy58
0:00 Greetings from Mexico! Jason is in Mexico for another gathering of The Collective Mastermind.
1:13 Eric Basmajian returns to finish the conservation on an upcoming housing crash
1:46 Register now for the the Recession Proof Investing Summit Virtual Event
2:19 Who’s driving the NAHB/Wells Fargo US Market Housing Index?
3:09 Residential Building Employees
4:03 Housing construction woes
6:09 Supply of US single-family homes
8:39 The Fed’s poison pill
10:32 Protecting the asset
11:11 Housing is the business cycle by Edward E. Leamer: Volume vs Price Cycle
12:41 Financial debt + household debt to GDP
13:48 The current volume cycle: less inventory
15:16 Price cycle is more vulnerable in the new construction market
16:36 Volume cycle in the large institutional home buyers
19:25 The monetary and fiscal policy response
20:51 Sell to get the rate of inflation down
21:27 Exploiting the last cheap labor market: Africa
Watch Part 1 of this interview here: https://youtu.be/fBgdLa2Vy58
About Eric & EPB Macro Research
Eric Basmajian is an economic cycle analyst providing research on long-term and short-term trends in growth and inflation. With a degree in economics and experience at a quantitative hedge fund, Eric has developed a unique secular and cyclical framework to forecast major economic inflection points and the resulting impact on asset prices.
https://www.epbmacroresearch.com/
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US National Debt to GDP Ratio to Exceed 100% - Why It's Not as Bad as You Think
The skyrocketing US national debt to GDP ratio is set to exceed 100% in the 2021 fiscal year according to the Wall Street Journal. On Creating Wealth podcast episode 1453, Jason Hartman discusses the rapidly growing US debt and why this is not as bad as many people think.
0:00 Intro
2:30 We’ve got to remember that all real estate is local.
6:25 The two things that drive value are scarcity and utility.
7:15 Three types of inflation
10:15 The U.S. national debt to GDP has reached 100%. Why this is not as bad as it sounds.
18:00 People are still fleeing high-density areas. So many people are moving that movers are turning people away.
21:40 Why Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac coming out of their conservatorship would be good for investors
29:20 Meet The Masters 2020 https://www.jasonhartman.com/recordings
30:00 Robinhood, stock trading app, in trouble again?
Learn More: https://www.jasonhartman.com/
Listen to the podcast: https://www.jasonhartman.com/podcast/
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#nationaldebt #usdebt
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Does High Inflation Mean It's a BAD Time to Invest?
LAST CHANCE! Join us this weekend for the RECESSION PROOF INVESTING SUMMIT! Don’t miss this live, virtual event with Jason and his team and some exciting industry experts ready to share their strategies with you! Reserve your spot at: https://www.empoweredinvestor.com/summit.
Slow and steady housing markets don’t make the news as they are boring and don’t generate the kind of click bait headlines that turn heads, but as an investor, that’s exactly where you want to be. So instead of just listening to the headlines, Jason Hartman teaches you and gives you the tools to evaluate properties, interest rates and changing markets so you can learn to think for yourself! Join Jason and Tyler Wynn as they explore Jason’s views on the changing housing market, new data from the Hartman Comparison Index™, how to determine whether or not a property is worth buying and the questionS on everyone’s mind: will interest rates go back down? Does high inflation mean it's a bad time to invest?
0:00 Welcome Empowered Investors!
2:15 Recession Proof Investing Summit this weekend! https://www.empoweredinvestor.com/summit
2:43 What is driving changes in housing inventory?
7:15 Cheap mortgages are the new collector’s items
11:29 Save the date for our live event in Scottsdale, AZ - Tom Wheelwright will be speaking!
12:24 Update on court battle - final judgment amount has been reduced
16:38 Jason’s view of the changing market
18:29 Factors to determine if you are in a good investment market
22:38 The Phillips Curve - balancing unemployment against inflation
24:31 Inflation rates and money lending
27:29 The US dollar is a moving target
29:37 Determining whether or not to buy a house - Hartman Comparison Index™
31:07 Using other assets to determine the value of real estate
33:10 Mortgage payment - historically cheap or expensive?
37:10 Real inflation from Shadowstats: houses are half as expensive today as they were 52 years ago
40:12 Hedonic adaptation
42:38 Will interest rates go back down?
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#jasonhartman #inflation #hartmancomparisonindex #recession #realestate #realestateinvesting #housingmarket #housingcorrection
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Expecting a 2022 Housing Price Crash or Boom? - with Tina Tamboer, The Cromford Report
Jason Hartman invites Tina Tamboer, senior housing analyst with The Cromford Report to discuss housing trends, household formation and relocation, and real estate market predictions for 2022. Are we in for a housing price crash or boom? The consensus right now, according to most analysts, is to expect prices to continue rising, but not at the rate we saw over the last year, however some industry professionals are predicting a decline. What are their reasons? Tina shares her methodology for evaluating current and future real estate prices and they discuss market predictions from Goldman Sachs, Core Logic, American Enterprise Institute, Zelman & Associates, and The Mortgage Bankers Association.
0:00 Introduction
1:06 Tina Tamboer is a senior housing analyst with The Cromford Report
2:24 Predictions for 2022 - can we expect a housing price crash or boom?
3:59 Household formation and relocation trends affect supply and demand
6:15 Airbnb short term rental market crash
11:33 Bad predictions that missed the mark last year
13:00 Why interest rates are one of the most difficult things to predict and is Zillow too big to fail?
15:09 Mortgage forbearance and foreclosure crisis
20:20 Do house flippers and iBuyers represent real demand or only interim demand?
24:39 Lending practices and interest rates
28:00 Percentage growth of housing units vs percentage growth of population
30:09 Are there any houses for first time home buyers out there still?
31:20 The United States population rate is in decline
35:29 National Association of Homebuilders Affordability Index
41:44 Housing price increases are no sustainable
44:17 Lending practices have loosened up
46:37 Buyers and sellers are in an arm wrestling match
50:20 Seasonal real estate trends
53:16 Find out more at CromfordReport.com
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#jasonhartman #realestate #thecromfordreport #marketupdate #realestateinvesting
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