Housing Market Update: Crash or Boom? Dr. Lawrence Yun, National Association of REALTORS

Jason Hartman explores the latest housing market data with returning guest Dr. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research at the National Association of Realtors®.

The Federal Reserve has raised the interest rate only one time this year, yet we see how fast the mortgage rates are rising. However, if one looks at the past history, you can see that at times when the Fed aggressively raised interest rates, the mortgage rate barely budged. So is it possible that most of the mortgage rate increases this year may have already occurred? Will any further jacking up of the interest rate by the Fed necessarily have any meaningful impact on mortgage rates? According to Dr. Yun, the wildcard here is inflation and whether or not it continues to rise due to unforeseen events currently happening around the world.

Lawrence Yun is Chief Economist and oversees the Research group at the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. He supervises and is responsible for a wide range of research activity for the association including NAR’s Existing Home Sales statistics, Affordability Index, and Home Buyers and Sellers Profile Report. He regularly provides commentary on real estate market trends for its 1.4 million REALTORS®.

Dr. Yun creates NAR’s forecasts and participates in many economic forecasting panels, among them the Blue Chip Council and the Wall Street Journal Forecasting Survey. He also participates in the Industrial Economists Discussion Group at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. He appears regularly on financial news outlets, is a frequent speaker at real estate conferences throughout the United States, and has testified before Congress. Dr. Yun has also appeared as a guest on CSPAN’s Washington Journal.

Dr. Yun received his undergraduate degree from Purdue University and earned his Ph.D. from the University of Maryland at College Park.

0:00 Welcome returning guest Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research at the National Association of Realtors
1:01 How long can this red hot housing market continue?
2:20 What does this mean for first time home buyers?
5:20 The cost burden has increased because of the home prices, but not in terms of the mortgage rate
7:46 What are the current housing inventory levels?
11:10 MLS - contigent and pending sales
12:17 Defining a balanced market
14:23 Will the market cool off with these higher rates?
15:42 Further interest rate hikes by the Fed may not have any meaningful impact on the mortgage rate
19:00 You can now buy a $1M home with an FHA loan in some areas
22:07 NARs chart on housing starts
24:14 Builders are not building entry level homes
26:47 Are we going to have a housing shortage for many, many years to come?
29:10 Boom in the home improvement industry
30:36 Possible inventory adjustment due to recent events
33:08 Job and housing market correlation
35:13 Multiple bids on rental units among renters
36:06 Do you see large investment companies continuing to buy more properties over the coming years?
38:31 There is a labor shortage across America
39:35 Increasing number of realtors
41:55 Increased home sales, increased prices but not increased ownership

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