Timing and directions of Russia's new major offensive in Ukraine is revealed
Given the pace of forming new units and troop deployment, the Russian Federation may organize a new offensive operation in August or September, says the military and political analyst of the Information Resistance Group of Ukraine Oleksandr Kovalenko, according to RBC-Ukraine.
As Kovalenko explained, for Russia to organize a new offensive, it needs to compensate for the losses it suffered during the past year, and since the beginning of this year during the Avdiivka offensive campaign.
Currently, the enemy is not advancing as intensively along the front line as before, but they still try to do so. During the summer, they will form new units, complete those that are not yet formed, and around the second half of this year, they may indeed begin offensive operations
Russia's objectives on the front remain the same – complete capture of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The next priority, in case of advancement in Donbas, is the expansion of the occupation to Zaporizhzhia region, located on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
According to the first scenario, Russia's new operations could unfold towards the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. For this purpose, the enemy needs to intensify its actions in Lyman, Siversk, and Bakhmut directions.
Another variant of their actions involves another attempt to capture Kurakhove and Vuhledar.
According to Kovalenko, the terrorists need to control the 0532 Road, which is a logistical artery from Maryinka to Vuhledar.
"The enemy is currently trying to create conditions for cutting this logistical artery in the Novomykhailivka area. They are also pushing towards Pobeda and Vodiane from Solodke. In fact, they are creating conditions to push towards Vuhledar not only from the south but also from the north," says Kovalenko.
He also believes that the enemy may try to re-intensify offensive actions in the Kupiansk area in the second half of the year.
A new offensive on Kyiv, which some Western media predict, currently seems highly unlikely. For Moscow to organize such an operation, they would need to accumulate no less than 100,000 troops alongside the Kyiv region, particularly from the North, on the territory of Belarus.
To deploy such a force, conduct its deployment, combat coordination, and so forth, it would take at least 3-4 months, and this cannot go unnoticed by Ukraine's special services. Currently, according to RBC-Ukraine, no such activity is observed in the North.
Institute for the Study of War reports Russia may start a large-scale offensive in the Donetsk direction at the end of spring or the beginning of summer. At the same time, it says that the enemy will probably be able to start a coordinated large-scale offensive operation only in one operational direction due to the limitation of their human resources and planning.
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Ukraine is hit by North Korean missiles, Russia buys more weapons from Pyongyang
The partnership between Russia and North Korea continues to grow, with Pyongyang providing support to Moscow, Deputy Pentagon press secretary Sabrina Singh said .
Arms deliveries from North Korea to Russia continue to increase, she said.
The declassified intelligence provided by the Pentagon revealed a variety of items being supplied, "whether it's munitions or other supplies," she said.
"We see that partnership — we continue to see Russia reach out to partners like North Korea, to Iran, to continue to get support for its war in Ukraine," she said.
"We continue to stand with Ukraine for however long it takes."
White House National Security spokesman John Kirby previously said that Russia started firing North Korean ballistic missiles at targets in Ukraine since early January.
Russia fired several North Korean missiles at Ukraine on Jan. 6, the White House said.
South Korea’s representative to the UN, Hwang Joon-kook, said that North Korea is using Ukraine as a “testing ground” for ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
North Korea called the U.S. accusations of transferring ballistic missiles to Russia for the war against Ukraine “groundless.”
Ukraine’s SBU Security Service reported on Feb. 22 that it had documented the facts of Russian air attacks on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure using North Korean weapons. The Russian military fired more than 20 North Korean munitions at Ukraine.
North Korean arms factories are working at full capacity to supply weapons and ammunition to Russia, South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik said on Feb. 26.
Russia has launched approximately 50 North Korean Hwasong-11 ballistic missiles across six Ukrainian regions, Ukrainian law enforcement reported on March 14.
Russia has attacked Ukraine with North Korean missiles at least 10 times, a senior U.S. State Department official specializing on North Korea, Jung Pak, said on March 20. The U.S. remains concerned that North Korea continues to sell weapons to Russia for use against Ukraine, especially for their use in targeting civilian infrastructure.
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US warns China against any attempts to help Russia in its war against Ukraine
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Russia will have to punish Armenia for geopolitical "treachery"
The Armenian leadership's apparent intention to sacrifice its partnership with Russia for Western offers has garnered concern from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who decries the country's willful pursuit of the collapse of relations with Russia. Lavrov has stated that the Armenian leadership's actions are leading to the slandering of Russian servicemen, who serve at the 102nd military base, the border guards, and the Collective Security Treaty Organization at large, according to Caliber media outlet.
Russian political scientist Andrei Petrov believes that the fate of Armenia will be decided in Brussels on April 5. Petrov posits that Ursula von der Leyen and Anthony Blinken await Pashinyan in Brussels not to discuss economic security or other matters but to finalize Armenia's anti-Russian position and document it. In his opinion, the first thing to expect is that Blinken will order Pashinyan to completely withdraw all Russian military structures from Armenia.
"The first step has already been taken. Russian border guards will be withdrawn from Zvartnots airport so that any Western politician or military officer can fly to Armenia unhindered. Then it is logical to propose to Russia to remove the border guards from the Iranian and Turkish borders, and then the most important question will be raised - the location of the Russian military base in Gyumri," Petrov noted.
According to him, Armenia is quite ready to surrender to the US in exchange for some bonuses such as EU candidate status and become a kind of prize, a symbolic victory of the EU and the US over Russia. According to the political analyst, if Armenia does not listen and documents the agreements proposed by the West, Moscow may have to take action against Armenia for betraying its geopolitical interests. The following statement from a political analyst suggests that Russia may take tough actions against Armenia using economic levers.
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Putin focused on confrontation with Europe after elections - Ukrainian intelligence
After the presidential elections, Russian president Vladimir Putin is focused on a possible confrontation with Europe and NATO, according to Vadym Skibitskyi, a representative of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine.
As Skibitskyi explains, Russia's strategy towards Ukraine has remained unchanged. First of all, it is a complete occupation of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. This is evident from the enemy's active assault operations.
At the same time, after the farce that Russia calls elections, Putin will focus on continuing his aggressive policy.
"He has passed this next stage of direct retention of power, and now he will solve the tasks he faces with Ukraine and beyond. Such active preparations for a possible confrontation with Europe, NATO, and the United States have already begun at the level of statements. All efforts will now be focused on this," says representative of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine.
Recently, Bild published a scenario of German military exercises, during which the German armed forces are preparing for a hybrid attack by Russia on NATO's eastern flank.
According to Admiral Rob Bauer, Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, the Alliance needs to be transformed, and the West must prepare for an era in which anything can happen at any time, including the outbreak of war.
French President Emmanuel Macron also spoke about the risk of an attack by Russia in the coming years. According to him, European leaders should be prepared for such a scenario. "The collective analysis is that in a few years, we must prepare for an attack from Russia," Macron said.
According to Polish President Andrzej Duda, Russia could restore its military potential and attack NATO countries as early as 2026.
On January 16, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that wavering Western support for Kyiv and fears of escalation with Russia could prolong hostilities for years.
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Ukraine strikes one of Russia’s 5 largest oil plants that processes 8m tons of oil in Tatarstan
Ukraine’s Security Service [SBU] and main directorate of intelligence under the Defence Ministry [GUR] were behind the attack on Russian Nizhnekamsk oil refinery in Tatarstan on Tuesday morning, Ukrainian media reported, with reference to unnamed sources within the intelligence department. A Ukrainian long-range drone hit the primary oil processing facility at the Nizhnekamsk refinery, after which fire broke out there, according to the report. The capacity of this processing unit is 8 million tons of oil, which amounts to 2.6% of the total annual refining of the Russian Federation per year. In addition, this plant is among the 5 largest refineries in Russia. "We continue to work systematically to ensure that Russia has fewer and fewer opportunities to finance the war of aggression against Ukraine. We will continue to cut off oxygen to the gas station country in order to minimize the flow of petrodollars to the military budget of the Russian Federation," the source told media. According to Baza, at least three people were injured at the refinery. This is the Taneco oil refinery in the city of Nizhnekamsk in the Republic of Tatarstan. The region’s governor confirmed the attack on the refinery, but in his statement, he did not specify the name of the refinery that was attacked. Russian media has confirmed that Nizhnekamsk oil refinery was hit, while stressing that “the technological process was not disrupted.” The Russian media also claimed that drones allegedly “attacked a hostel” in a special economic zone of “Alabuga”, and that two people were injured during the attack. Ukraine in recent months has stepped up attacks on Russia’s oil refiners in a bid to impact Kremlin’s highly lucrative trade in refined products. Kyiv believes its drone attacks on Russia, the world’s second largest oil producer, are justified because Ukraine has suffered large-scale damage to its infrastructure from Russian air strikes since the start of Russia’s full-fledged invasion of the country in February 2022
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A Russian drone factory, located 1,265 kilometers from the front, was hit by Aİ-powered UAVs
Sources from Ukraine's Military Intelligence Directorate confirmed that Ukraine had targeted a drone assembly facility in Yelabuga, Tatarstan, more than 1,200 kilometers from Ukraine.
The source of Kyiv Post said that this was a special operation of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry and that the strike caused significant damage to drone production facilities.
Meanwhile, Russian officials claimed that the Ukrainians had failed to reach their targets, and succeeded only in injuring people.
The press service of the head of the Tatar republic, Rustam Minnikhanov, wrote on Telegram:“Drone attacks took place against factories in Tatarstan at Yelabuga and Nizhnekamsk.”
It added that the attacks: “did not cause serious damage and the activity in the factories was unaffected. Unfortunately, in Yelabuga, people were wounded.”
The city of Nizhnekamsk in Tatarstan is home to the large Taneko oil refinery. Reports on Ukrainian social media claimed that the oil refinery was the target of a second attack.
The attacks have been made possible by the use of drones with longer ranges and more advanced capabilities, some of which have even begun to integrate a basic form of artificial intelligence to help them navigate and avoid being jammed, a source close to Ukraine’s drone program told CNN.
“Accuracy under jamming is enabled through the use of artificial intelligence. Each aircraft has a terminal computer with satellite and terrain data,” the source explained. “The flights are determined in advance with our allies, and the aircraft follow the flight plan to enable us to strike targets with meters of precision.” That precision is made possible by the drone’s sensors.
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Russian warehouses full of ammunition in Kherson were burned to ashes after a drone strike
Aerial scouts of the "Madyar" group under the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ 59th brigade have discovered the ammunition depot of the invading Russian army near the village of Krinki in Kherson region. The warehouse was destroyed as a result of a kamikaze drone strike.
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Three Azerbaijani truck drivers languishing in Georgia for 11th month
Three Azerbaijani truck drivers have been stuck at a custom’s office in Georgia’s Batumi city for nearly 11 months now. The three drivers and another driver from Georgia were detained in April last year upon entering the territory of Batumi as the trucks they were driving contained military vests, something the drivers were unaware of. Thus, customs officers confiscated the drivers’ documents and banned them from leaving Georgia after they found military vests inside the sealed containers. The three Azerbaijani drivers told local media that they were unaware about the existence of military vests in the containers. “We loaded the cargo in Istanbul, Turkey. We were told that the cargo contained sports goods but turned out they were military vests. We were unaware of this. We couldn’t have inspected whether these were military vests or sports vests. We crossed the border from Turkey and got detained in Georgia. We have been detained since April 24, 2023. We’ve been here for ten months now. Nobody has helped us for ten months. It’s clear whom the cargo belongs to, where it would be delivered and which company the documents belong to. We haven’t stolen anything. This situation has nothing to do with us. We have no fault. Nobody helps us or gives us any answers,” one of the drivers Elshad Huseynov told local media. “We have asked them to unload the cargo into the customs office and set us free. But nobody listens to us,” another truck driver Rafael Abdullayev said. The military vests had been sent by Turkey’s Karabogha company and were to be delivered to the Lana Group company in Kyrgyzstan. The drivers experienced no problems at customs’ office in Turkey. It should be noted that neither Lana Group company nor Karabogha company have made any inquiries about the confiscated products. Apparently, both companies knew in advance that they might experience problems with customs officers. However, it’s the truck drivers who have been suffering due to this situation. The drivers spoke about the difficulties they had been experiencing since their detention by Georgia’s custom’s officers. They have been sleeping in their trucks and had relied on help from local residents who provide them with food. The truck drivers said the Azerbaijani Consulate in Batumi and the Azerbaijani Embassy in Tbilisi have ignored their appeal for help. They once again asked the Azerbaijani government to help solve their problem and ensure that they are allowed to leave Georgia.
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Salwan Momika, who burned Quran several times in Sweden, found dead
Salwan Momika, an Iraqi man who carried out several Quran burnings in Sweden, was reportedly found dead in Norway. He had staged several burnings and desecrations of the sacred book of Islam in Sweden over the past few years. Last, week Momika told a newspaper that he had been seeking asylum in neighbouring Norway.
Momika, a Christian who turned atheist, was amongst the critics of Islam. Momika moved out of Iraq in 2018, seeking asylum. Though a Christian who turned atheist, Momika called himself an extreme Ex- -Muslim. “Ex-Muslims are individuals who identified as Muslims once, left the religion due to personal reasons, differing beliefs, or disillusionment with its teachings, practices, or community norms”, he added.
Momika had recently put an update about him shifting to Norway from Sweden. He also revealed that he has applied from asylum and protection from the Norwegian authorities. Further he confirmed that he will continue his fight against Islamic ideology no matter whatever it costs. "My love and respect for the Swedish people will remain the same, but the persecution I was subjected to by the Swedish authorities does not represent the Swedes. I will continue my struggle against Islamic ideology Since I started the struggle against Islam, I have paid and continue to pay the price, and I am ready for that, whatever the cost," he added. Multiple social media handles claimed that Salwan's lifeless body was found in Norway. He obtained a permanent residence permit in Sweden in 2021, which was withdrawn and he was granted temporary residency until April 2024.
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Trucks carrying ammunition and soldiers to Kherson burn like this after a drone attack
Aerial scouts of the "Madyar" group under the Ukrainian armed forces‘ 59th brigade have discovered military trucks of the invading Russian army near the village of Krinki in Kherson region. Vehicles carrying soldiers and ammunition were blown up by kamikaze drones. As a result of the strikes, soldiers in the vehicles were also killed
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Iran’s generals and senior officers in Syria killed in airstrike; Tehran blames Israel, vows revenge
Suspected Israeli warplanes bombed Iran's embassy in Syria in a strike that Tehran said killed seven of its military advisers, including three senior commanders, marking a major escalation in Israel's war with its regional adversaries.
The airstrike destroyed the consulate building in the capital Damascus, killing at least seven officials including Mohammed Reza Zahedi, a top commander in Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards, and senior commander Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi, according to Iran’s Foreign Ministry.
Zahedi, a former commander of the Revolutionary Guards’s ground forces, air force, and the deputy commander of its operations, is the most high- profile Iranian target killed since then-US President Donald Trump ordered the assassination of Revolutionary Guards General Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad in 2020.
Iranian Ambassador Hossein Akbari condemned Israel for the strike. Akbari vowed revenge "at the same magnitude and harshness." Iran has asked the U.N. Security Council to hold an emergency meeting to discuss an Israeli airstrike that destroyed Iran’s consulate in Syria’s capital. Israel has carried out several hundred strikes on targets in government-controlled parts of Syria in recent years. But the number has escalated since the beginning of the nearly six-month Israeli-Hamas war in Gaza and periodic clashes between Israel’s military and Hezbollah fighters along the Lebanon-Israel border.
An Israeli airstrike in a Damascus neighborhood in December killed a longtime adviser of the Iranian paramilitary Revolutionary Guard in Syria, Seyed Razi Mousavi. A similar strike on a building in Damascus in January killed at least five Iranian advisers. Last week, airstrikes over the strategic eastern Syrian province of Deir el-Zour near the Iraqi border killed an Iranian advise
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Moment: In Russia there was attack by UAVs on factory, producing Shahed drones - strong explosion
There was a drone attack on the cities of Yelabuga and Nizhnekams of the Tatarstan Republic of Russia. The Russian press reported on this. The kamikaze drones, which are said to belong to Ukraine, hit the Elaz-Nefteprodukt oil refinery in Yelabuqi and Taneko oil refineries in Nejnekams. As a result of the blows, an explosion and fire occurred.
At the same time, an attack was made on the "Alabugi Politex" plant and dormitory located in the Alabugi special economic zone located in Yelabugi. It is said that "Shahed" drones are produced at the plant. It is said that although the factories were damaged as a result of the attack, the production process did not stop. Local authorities say there are casualties.
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Finland doesn’t rule out sending troops to Ukraine - Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen
Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen praised French President Emmanuel Macron’s strategy of keeping Russia uncertain about Western support for Kyiv by suggesting the deployment of troops to Ukraine, Financial Times says.
In February, French President Macron suggested sending Western troops to Ukraine, stating France was “not against” it. This prompted rejections from NATO and several countries, including the US, UK, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Poland, and the Czech Republic. Russia threatened consequences for countries supporting Ukraine. Later, some countries, like Canada and Czechia, revised their stance, considering non-combat roles for their troops in Ukraine.
Elina Valtonen told the Financial Times: “Now’s not the time to send boots on the ground and we are not even willing to discuss it at this stage. But for the long term, of course we shouldn’t be ruling anything out.”
The comments from Valtonen, supported by Baltic leaders and officials, highlight Macron’s recent shift on Russia and his emphasis on the importance of Russia’s defeat in Ukraine for Europe’s security, which has garnered favor with NATO’s frontline members.
France, traditionally viewed with suspicion in central and eastern Europe for its approach to Russia, has seen a change in Macron’s stance, who initially cautioned against humiliating Russia. However, in light of Russia’s actions in Ukraine, Macron now considers Russia an existential threat to the EU and French security.
Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė has voiced support for Macron’s strategy of “strategic ambiguity”: “What I liked about two recent announcements of President Macron is that he said that actually why should we impose ourselves red lines when Putin basically has no red lines?” she noted, according to Financial Times.
Estonian FM Margus Tsahkna said Macron’s intervention had “woken up a bit the leaders of Europe — instead of putting boots on the ground it is safer to send weapons and money” to Ukraine. It makes Putin concerned about what Europe can actually do. This out of the box thinking is useful.”
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Russia seeks to defend port in Novorossiysk after Ukrainian strikes on Sevastopol
UK Defence Intelligence has indicated that Russia is trying to protect its facilities in the port city of Novorossiysk from Ukrainian attacks.
A satellite image of the entrance to the port of Novorossiysk posted on X indicates that it is now partially blocked by barges to reduce the likelihood of a breakthrough by Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessels.
UK Defence Intelligence noted that after a series of successful Ukrainian strikes on the port city of Sevastopol, Novorossiysk has become critical to protecting the most valuable assets of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
The agency noted that Viktor Sokolov, former Commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, was replaced after Ukrainian successes in using uncrewed surface vessels against Russian targets both at sea and in the port.
His successor, Vice Admiral Sergei Pinchuk, has likely tried to increase the chances of survival of Russian warships by taking additional preventive and defensive measures, including narrowing the entrance gap to port facilities, UK Defence Intelligence added.
Jon Hemler, lead analyst for military aerospace and weapons systems at business intelligence firm Forecast International, said Ukraine’s successful use of uncrewed surface vessels for one-way attacks against Russian ships in the Black Sea over the past 18 months is certainly a factor in advancing the technology. However, the development of the robotic vessels for defense purposes has been underway for well over a decade in some cases, particularly in the United States.
“Recent use of uncrewed surface vessels as naval weapons — like Magura V5s in Crimea and even Houthi rebels attempting uncrewed surface vessel attacks against U.S. ships in the Red Sea — are serving more so as accelerants to uncrewed surface vessels development,” he said
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Russia launches biggest tank assault of war, but it ended with one of largest-scale tank massacres
On last Saturday, the Russian army launched what may have been one of the largest-scale tank assaults of Russia’s 25-month wider war on Ukraine, according to Forbes.
İt is noted that it ended in one of the largest-scale tank massacres of Russia’s 25-month wider war on Ukraine. When the smoke cleared, the Russians had left behind—on a road west of the ruins of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine—a third of their tanks.
Forbes says that the costly assault underscores two clashing trends as Russia’s war of choice grinds into its third year. For weeks prior to the Saturday assault, Russian regiments and brigades—apparently short on vehicle after losing hundreds of them capturing Avdiivka back in mid-February—mostly deployed foot-borne infantry to attack west of the city.
That changed in the recent days. “On the Avdiivka direction, the enemy has reintroduced the employment of armored vehicles, including tanks,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies noted , the day before a battalion or two of those vehicles rolled into a bloodbath near Tonen’ke.
That the Ukrainians could defeat such a large and heavily-armed Russian force points to the other trend. Despite struggling with inadequate supplies of key munitions, Ukrainian brigades still are capable of mounting a fierce defense—often with a combination of mines, artillery, anti-tank missiles and explosive first-person-view drones.
“Sometimes it is amazing the amount of stupid, mindless meat that dies in bundles due to the ambitions of a small man,” the Ukrainian air-assault forces’ 25th Brigade mused in a social-media post following the Saturday battle west of Tonen’ke on Avdiivka’s western outskirts. That small man is, of course, Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
Thirty-six tanks and 12 BMP fighting vehicles from the Russian army’s 6th Tank Regiment—part of the 90th Tank Division—attacked along a road threading from Russian-occupied Tonen’ke toward the free village of Uman’ske, two miles to the west, according to Forbes.
The Ukrainian 25th Brigade spotted the 48-vehicle column—and hit it hard. “Twelve tanks and eight BMPs were taken out,” wrote “Kriegsforscher,” a drone-operator with the Ukrainian 36th Marine Brigade. “Pure madness.”
If the Russians actually gained any ground at the cost of those 20 vehicles—and potentially scores of troops—the gains were modest. The day after the assault, the Center for Defense Strategies described the fighting around Tonen’ke as “positional,” meaning neither side significantly was advancing.
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Attacks on Russian navy: Ukrainian Army preparing to destroy Crimean Bridge
The Russian Federation's Black Sea Fleet "does not dare" to sail in the Black Sea, and Ukraine has unblocked grain supplies. UK Defence Secretary Grant Shapps has said so.
The situation in the Black Sea is being closely monitored by the navies of other countries, said Ben Hodges, former commander of the US Ground Forces in Europe.
"The Ukrainians have changed the nature of warfare at sea, at least in an enclosed area like the Black Sea," Hodges said in an interview with Silicon curtain.
The military officer pointed out that unlike traditional naval combat, the Ukrainian Army used new and adapted technologies, sabotage operations and special forces against the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
The success of the Ukrainian Army also points to the lack of readiness and capabilities of the Russian Navy and, according to Hodges, it proved to be "no better than the Russian ground forces in the early days of this conflict."
Hodges pointed out an important detail: the Ukrainian Army is already hitting large logistics ships that the Russians could use for shipping in the Sea of Azov if the Kerch Bridge is destroyed. And also the dry dock near occupied Sevastopol, where the Russians could repair ships.
According to Hodges, the retreat of the Russian Black Sea Fleet gives reason to doubt Putin's intention to use nuclear weapons in the event of the loss of annexed Crimea.
Russian forces are no longer using the Crimean bridge, a key supply route, to replenish Moscow's stocks of weapons and ammunition in the annexed peninsula and southern Ukraine, according to Kyiv. Ukrainian strikes on the 12-mile-long bridge have disrupted the flow of weapons for Russia's military, but Moscow will likely attempt to restart the supply stream once the bridge is structurally secure, Vasyl Maliuk, the head of Ukraine's security service, told
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Russia prepares for major offensive in Ukraine after “mud season”
Russia is preparing for a major offensive – with the potential for a breakthrough – on the Ukraine front line in the next month when the muddy terrain dries out, according to military analysts.
The National News media outlet says that Ukraine’s military is in a race against time to build defences against the advance that could shatter their 1,000km front line.
Sources on X have reported “intensified movement” of Russian military equipment and personnel in Luhansk province, eastern Ukraine.
Tanks, armoured personnel carriers, fuel bowsers and Ural lorries are reported to be massing.
The build-up of weapons and ammunition in “very significant quantities” points to “preparation for another attempt to change the line”, said military analyst Sam Cranny-Evans, of the Rusi think tank.
“The big difference now written large is that air defence and fire superiority have shifted in Russia's favour,” he added.
Since November last year, following Ukraine’s summer offensive, Russian forces have taken an estimated 505 square kilometres of the country’s 603,000 square km total.
Even the mud season known as “rasputitsa” in Russian, or “season of bad roads”, has not stopped the Kremlin pushing forward infantry who have died in their thousands.
But once the mud dries the main effort is expected to begin with armour and artillery massing along the front line.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War have suggested that Russia may concentrate a large-scale offensive in the western part of Donetsk Oblast in late spring or summer, adding that Russian troops will be able to launch an offensive in only one operational area. Russian commanders will likely focus their projected offensive on the western part of Donetsk Oblast in late spring or summer 2024, hoping to exploit steady but small advances by Russian forces in the area.
Ukrainian officials have recently cautioned that Russia is building up forces along the Kharkiv-Luhansk axis, near the war-torn towns of Bakhmut and Avdiivka, and in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. However, ISW believes that Russian forces are likely to be able to launch a concerted large-scale offensive in only one operational area due to limited manpower and planning.
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France promises hundreds of old armored vehicles and new batch of Aster 30 missiles to Ukraine
France will supply Ukraine with additional surface-to-air missiles and hundreds of armored vehicles from storage, Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu has announced. The deliveries are set to begin this summer and continue over the next two years.
Speaking to the newspaper La Tribune Dimanche, Lecornu said he had been instructed by French President Emmanuel Macron to come up with a new aid package to help Kiev’s war effort against Russia.
He noted that the supplies will include equipment that was previously used by the French army but “is still functional,” as well as a “new batch of Aster 30 missiles” that are designed to intercept drones, and cruise missiles with a range of 120km.
“To hold such a long frontline, the Ukrainian army needs, for example, our armored vehicles – this is absolutely key for troop mobility and is part of Ukraine’s requests,” the minister said.
“We’re talking in the hundreds for 2024 and early 2025,” he clarified, when asked about the timeframe, adding that he had asked the government defense procurement agency to accelerate the production of Aster missiles.
The French military is currently seeking to replace thousands of VAB armored personnel carriers – which first entered service some 45 years ago – with newer types of APC.
In February, Macron signed a new security pact with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, pledging 3 billion euros in military aid to Kiev for the year 2024 alone.
However, the bilateral security agreement has turned into a “budgetary and political headache” for the government and it is “extremely unclear” how the promise will materialize given public resistance to spending cuts and further aid to Kiev, the French publication Le Monde reported last week.
The paper suggested that in order to provide 3 billion euros, the French authorities would have to “play with the paperwork” or inflate the value of used equipment donated to Kiev.
Macron has previously stated that the West will “do anything we can to prevent Russia from winning this war.”
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Iran warned Russia of terror threat before Crocus City Hall attack
Iran warned Russia about the possibility of a major "terrorist operation" on its territory ahead of the mass killing at the suburban Crocus City Hall. Reuters reported this, citing sources.
"Days before the attack in Russia, Tehran shared information with Moscow about a possible big terrorist attack inside Russia that was acquired during interrogations of those arrested in connection with deadly bombings in Iran", a source said.
In January, the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence announced the arrest of 35 suspects linked to the explosions in the southeastern city of Kerman on 3 January, which resulted in the death of approximately 100 people. On 19 January, the ministry stated that it had arrested a commander of Islamic State's Afghanistan-based branch ISIS-Khorasan.
A second source, which also preferred to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of the issue, reported that the information provided by Tehran to Moscow about the impending attack lacked details regarding the time and exact target.
"The members of ISIS-Khorasan were instructed to prepare for a significant operation in Russia. One of the terrorists said some members of the group had already travelled to Russia," the second source said.
"As Iran has been a victim of terror attacks for years, Iranian authorities fulfilled their obligation to alert Moscow based on information acquired from those arrested terrorists." a third source, a high-ranking security service official said, according to Reuters.
The source, familiar with US intelligence about the upcoming attack in Russia, reported that they were based on intercepted conversations between ISIS-Khorasan militants.
Reuters notes that the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Kremlin did not respond to requests for comment on this story. The White House also did not provide any comments.
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Azerbaijan voices concerns over France's military mission in Armenia amidst tensions in S. Caucasus
In the wake of the Second Karabakh War, the geopolitical picture of the South Caucasus has undergone profound shifts, with France and some Western nations adopting strategies that are raising eyebrows in Baku. Head of the State Security Service of Azerbaijan, Ali Nagiyev, has voiced apprehensions regarding France's recent establishment of a military mission in Armenia, suggesting that it could potentially escalate tensions and even provoke another conflict.
Speaking at an event commemorating the 105th anniversary of Azerbaijan's security agencies, Nagiyev pointed out that rather than fostering peace, France's actions seem to be fueling instability by supplying weapons and ammunition to Armenia, which has occupied Azerbaijani territories for decades. Nagiyev's concerns, as reported by Interfax-Azerbaijan, highlight the perceived threat of France's covert activities aimed at destabilizing the region.
The decision by Paris to deploy a military mission in Armenia has been interpreted by Azerbaijani authorities as a provocative move, signaling France's intention to turn the South Caucasus into a battleground. Nagiyev accuses France of not only arming Armenia but also engaging in clandestine operations through its intelligence services, allegedly forming spy networks that undermine Azerbaijan's security interests.
Nagiyev emphasized the vigilance of Azerbaijan's State Security Service in uncovering and countering such threats. He pledged to take necessary measures to safeguard the country against potential destabilization efforts orchestrated by external actors. The rhetoric underscores Azerbaijan's determination to defend its sovereignty amidst growing regional tensions.
In addition to addressing external threats, Nagiyev highlighted the role of Azerbaijan's security system in combating terrorism and transnational organized crime. He pointed to the expansion of international relations as a crucial aspect of the State Security Service's operational effectiveness, emphasizing cooperation with nearly 100 intelligence agencies worldwide.
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Kremlin propagandist makes nuclear threats to UK and France
Kremlin propagandist Vladimir Solovyov has suggested launching nuclear strikes on two members of the NATO military alliance.
According to Newsweek, Solovyov, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin and a state TV host, issued the warnings during two separate broadcasts of his shows Evening with Vladimir Solovyov, and Sunday Evening with Vladimir Solovyov. The Daily Beast's Julia Davis shared excerpts of the broadcasts on X.
The notion that Russia could strike NATO members in response to the aid and weapons they've provided Ukraine in the ongoing war has been floated by Solovyov, and many other Russian officials, regularly since the conflict began in February 2022.
"Meanwhile in Russia: Vladimir Solovyov assured fellow propagandists that none of them will be tried after the war is over, because by then, the British will have been eradicated through nuclear strikes," wrote Davis of the first state TV clip.
"Meanwhile in Russia: Easter would be incomplete without Vladimir Solovyov's nuclear threats to France," she wrote in another post, sharing the broadcast. n the first state TV clip, Vladimir Kornilov, a political scientist, began by saying that the British newspaper The Daily Telegraph "openly wrote that the Russian people are responsible. After the war ends, absolutely everyone has to be tried, including Patriarch Kirill."
Solovyov interjected: "Pardon, who is going to judge us?"
"The British," Kornilov responded.
Solovyov continued by issuing his first nuclear warning. "The country that by that point in time will be buried under a radioactive wave?" he said.
Kornilov said he hopes "it won't get to a nuclear war."
"It won't, the radioactive tsunami will just wipe it away," Solovyov replied.
In the second state TV broadcast, Solovyov criticized Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo for saying over the weekend that Russian and Belarusian athletes "were not welcome" at this year's Olympics, which is being held in the French capital.
"I want to remind this unpleasant ugly Nazi beast that today is the 210th anniversary of the Russian army entering Paris. Both back then and now, we couldn't care less whether or not you are glad to see us. Whenever we need to destroy all of you, we will do it," said Solovyov.
He added: "So Paris, you don't want to welcome our athletes? Welcome our hypersonics! Fast, reliable, and very unpleasant."
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Israel fired missiles at consulate of high-ranking Iranian officials in Syria, casualties reported
Israeli Air Forces have launched an airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Syrian capital Damascus, Iran's state TV channel reported. Iran's ambassador to Syria Huseyn Akbari said that at least eight people died as a result of the attack. The ambassador confirmed that Iranian diplomats and military advisers were among the killed, including Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahidi and his deputy Mohammad Hadi Rahimi of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. According to the information of the Syrian Defence Ministry, Israeli planes struck from the direction of the Golan Heights. Air defense systems managed to shoot down several of the missiles. Iran's ambassador to Syria said that there would be harsh response to the attack. Israel has not comment on the incident yet.
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Russian military facility in Kherson was shelled by drones carrying heavy explosive shells
Ukrainian aerial scouts have discovered and struck military facilities in the occupied Hola Prystan district of Kherson region. The facilities were destroyed by the strikes delivered from the kamikaze drones carrying high-explosive shells.
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Russian aircraft mistakenly dropped another two more bombs on Belgorod Oblast
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