Marc De Mesel

Updated returns, stocks (16%) as well as gold (11%) did well this year, unlike last year where stocks did poorly (-18%) and gold just ok (0%). The surprise is again cash that is again returning 5% this year, which is zero after deducting 5% inflation. Last 10y, deducting also 5% for inflation, stocks still returned 7%, whereas gold only 1%. The trend is still very clear if you look at the long term chart since 1928. A reversal in returns is unlikely given how short and weak this stock market cycle has been. Stocks can return a lot more and typically do if you look at previous cycles, and the inverse is true for gold. Gold held up well still but it can get a lot worse.

Bonds, Savings Accounts and Real Estate should be avoided for different reasons. Rising interest rates are likely next 40 years and so LT bonds as well as Real Estate in the West are not likely to go up like they did the past 40 years when interest rates were falling. Treasuries are on top unethical as most governments do too much evil shit to justify financing them. Real inflation of USD/EUR/GBP is 5% and savings accounts and short term treasuries yield the same 'return' long term, so that is just a big loss of opportunity and is not how you will make money in the long term. What remains are mainly hard assets (with the exception of Real Estate) such as Stocks, Commodities/Gold. Art and Cryptocurrencies but just taking an index is also overcrowded for stocks. Instruments I pledged never to use again are: 1. going short, because it is a bad loan, ie: you are borowing an asset and will be forced to pay it back when it goes up right when you don't want to pay it back as it just went up and 2. leverage/loans from brokers because this is also a bad loan, meaning if your collateral goes down in value, you will be forced to pay back the loan, right when your assets went down in value and you don't want to.