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Ukrainian forces have made further tactical gains in the south of Ukraine, advancing beyond Russia's first line of defense in some areas. The gains suggest that Kyiv's counteroffensive is gaining momentum, but the ISW cautions that Russian forces still pose a significant challenge. Fighting in the area has been fierce, especially for the village of Rubizhne. The British Ministry of Defense believes that Russian forces will increase pressure in other areas of Ukraine in an attempt to regain the initiative. The ISW says that the next few weeks will be critical in determining whether Ukrainian forces can continue to advance and achieve their objectives in the south. Geo-located footage shows that Ukrainian forces have advanced 1.5 kilometers southward northeast of Novoprokopivka, 13 kilometers south of Orikhiv, and south of the recently liberated village of Rubizhne. Ukrainian commander Col. Oleksandr Motuzyanyk said that forces fighting in the south believe they have broken through the most difficult line of Russian defenses and will now be able to advance much quicker. The British Ministry of Defense believes that Russian forces are likely to continue to focus on attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. However, they are also likely experiencing logistical difficulties and Ukrainian forces continue to hold key terrain. The ISW says that the latest developments in the south of Ukraine are "a sign that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is gaining momentum." However, they also caution that "the next few weeks will be critical in determining whether Ukrainian forces can continue to advance and achieve their objectives in the south."

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