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On the night of March 20, there was a drone attack on the Engels airfield located in the Saratov region of Russia. The Russian press reported on this. The governor of the province said that the anti-aircraft defense system was activated and Ukrainian drones were shot down, and there were no casualties as a result of the incident. Local residents say that explosions took place in several places. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, four drones were shot down over the Saratov region. It should be noted that Engels airfield is home to strategic bombers that launch missile strikes on Ukraine. It should be recalled that there was a drone attack on the Engels Air Base in December 2022. As a result, 6 soldiers died, two planes were damaged.

Ukraine has told its Western backers that munitions for some of its air defense systems could be almost used up by the end of March, the Washington Post has reported, citing US officials. According to the sources, representatives of Kiev made the warning during a security conference last month, the paper wrote in an article. Ukrainian forces, which previously managed to shoot down four out of every five missiles fired by Russia, may soon be able to target only one in five, one of the officials claimed. The lack of air defense missiles is going to “have a significant effect on life in Ukraine’s urban centers,” the source said. Russia has been carrying out a large-scale missile and drone campaign against Ukrainian military targets, defense-industrial complex facilities and critical infrastructure since the fall of 2022. Russia Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said previously that the aim of the attacks was to “crush Ukraine’s military potential.” The Defense Ministry in Moscow said that a US-supplied Patriot air defense system had been destroyed by Russian forces in Ukraine’s Kharkov Region. Last week, it published a video of a successful strike on a Soviet-era S-300 air defense system deployed by Ukraine in Russia’s People’s Republic of Donetsk. The US officials who talked to Washington Post warned of “catastrophic breakdown of Ukrainian lines in the grimmest contingency and the likelihood of massive casualties in the best” if Kiev does not get more military assistance from Washington. The administration of US President Joe Biden has been trying to push through another $60 billion in assistance for Ukraine since October last year, but has so far been unable to break the resistance of hardline Republicans, who are demanding increased funding to secure the border with Mexico.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said after the country’s elections that should there be a conflict between Russia and NATO, the world would be "one step away" from World War III. Putin's response to the question of whether a full-scale conflict between Russia and NATO is possible: "I think that everything is possible in today's world." However, the Russian president said "it is unlikely anyone would be interested in this". "It is clear to everyone that Russo-NATO conflict would be just one step away from a full-scale World War III," he added. Russian President has said that it is no secret that fighters from NATO states are present on the ground in Ukraine, arguing that these service members are facing extremely grim prospects. Speaking to his supporters and the media after his presidential election victory, Putin stressed that Moscow is well aware of calls in the US-led military bloc to potentially deploy troops to Ukraine. “We hear both French and English speech there. There is nothing good in this, first of all for them, because they die there and in large numbers,” he said. French President Emmanuel Macron suggested last month that the West “cannot exclude” the possibility of sending soldiers to aid Ukraine. He later described Russia as an “adversary,” insisting, however, that Paris is not “waging war on” Moscow. Commenting on Macron’s remarks, Putin noted that while NATO troops in Ukraine are expected to act as an auxiliary force, helping Kiev train its military, “this is not much different from what mercenaries are doing there now.” Russia, he added, wants France not to escalate the conflict but to help find a peaceful solution to hostilities.

Alexey Baranovsky, a volunteer from the Freedom of Russia Legion, commented on the raid that continues in the Belgorod and Kursk oblasts against the backdrop of the sham Presidential elections in Russia during a Radio NV broadcast. "We still have enough surprises," Baranovsky said. “At the moment, the military leadership has not decided when this special liberation operation will be completed and whether it will be completed at all. Now, we are working according to the schedule. The last ‘election day’ is in full swing. It's hard to announce yet, but the fighting is on, and we are not going to stop there.” He also said that the soldiers are fighting with the understanding "if not us, then who?" "Someone has to do the dirty work — to destroy Putin and his regime. It will not be Ukrainian soldiers. Ukraine will liberate its territory — return Crimea, Donbas, and all the occupied territories within the 1991 borders. But for us, the war will not end. We will have to go on and finish off this bastard in its heart, in its lair." Asked whether Putin was afraid of them, the Freedom of Russia Legion fighter said: "If they used to ignore all our raids, in any case, this is the first time Putin has commented twice, which means that it at least causes him some discomfort ‘below the back.’ I don't know if this burning sensation will turn into fear sooner or later, it will. But the very fact that Putin is commenting is a sign that we are on the right track. Vladimir Vladimirovich, wait!" Russian volunteers from the Freedom of Russia Legion, the Russian Volunteer Corps, and the Siberian Battalion announced a new operation in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast on March 12. The Russian Volunteer Corps claimed to have advanced several dozens of kilometers and taken prisoners. Moscow reported casualties among the Russian army. Russia's unlawfully staged "Presidential elections" have been held over three days in occupied Ukrainian territories, where occupation authorities have employed various tactics to prop up voter turnout.

The Humvee armored vehicle belonging to the "Free Russia Legion", which entered the territory of Belgorod region of Russia and continued the military operation, opened fire on the position of the occupying Russian army in the territory of the region. Local residents, who shared images from the area where the Legion fighters were operating, showed the ruins, houses, other buildings and cars destroyed.

Junior sergeant, grenade launcher of the 5th separate assault brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, one of the authors of the book “Liquidation of the Russian Empire” Yuri Sirotyuk, in an interview with Radio NV, spoke about the significance of the raids of Russian volunteers: “We are observing a very interesting phenomenon — Russia’s rapid loss of its own sovereignty as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Internal sovereignty, first external. Russia has lost control of its own borders, Russia's western borders are uncertain. When we are now talking about the events in the Belgorod and Kursk regions over the past week, I want to remind you of other events. Back in December last year, the FSB of the Russian Federation, together with other punitive agencies, created a special group to combat manifestations of extremism, separatism and nationalism in the Kursk and Belgorod regions. That is, there indeed were anti-Russian sentiments in this territory, if special groups were created. Putin felt his regime was threatened. Accordingly, now we see the key point that Russia, which undermined and said that Ukraine has no sovereignty, is today depriving itself of sovereignty. The key point in all this was March 17. On March 17, Russia lost any legitimate power in the form of a legally elected president. Because what is that president, who is elected in the occupied territories, which are not recognized by the international community, where it is impossible to ensure order in the elections? When we see that the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu and the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation Valery Gerasimov vote, and how will that Putin cannon fodder vote, hundreds thousands of his best people, as he calls them, if they go on meat assaults? It is clear that they will not have any voting. But most importantly: Putin undermines internal sovereignty, because the Russians believed that they lived “in a great country” that no one would ever attack, no one could invade its territory, that there would always be order, peace, greatness. And today Putin brought the war to the territory of the Russian Federation. The military expert noted that “Russia is a fragile country,” and in the current situation, “Kadyrov could advance on Moscow tomorrow in armored cars.”

Russia's Belgorod region came under missile fire from the territory of Ukraine. This was reported by Russian telegram channels. According to reports, the strikes were launched by the Vampire rocket launcher system. As a result of the fire, several houses and cars in the parking lot were burnt. It is reported that at least 3 people were injured.

During two days, 12% of Russian oil refining facilities were damaged by Ukrainian UAVs. This was reported by Bloomberg. According to the publication, the three facilities attacked by Ukrainian drones in two days account for about 12% of Russia's oil refining facilities. Airstrike on March 13 caused a fire at one of the country's largest oil refineries, the Ryazan refinery of Rosneft. The refinery had to shut down two primary oil refining units. The Ryazan refinery, about 200 kilometres southeast of Moscow, has a capacity of 17.1 million tonnes a year, or about 340,000 barrels a day. It is a major supplier of motor fuels to the Russian regions around the capital. The small Novoshakhtinsk refinery in the southern Rostov region was also shut down due to a drone attack. The latest wave of attacks, which began on March 12, damaged a unit at LUKoil's Norsi refinery in Nizhny Novgorod and an oil depot in Orel region. Ukraine has repeatedly struck Russian oil infrastructure since January in a campaign to hurt the country’s economy. The latest attacks come ahead of Russia’s presidential election this weekend. The targets this week are major refineries, particularly the Rosneft facility in Ryazan, which has a refining capacity of 340,000 barrels per day, according to Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. The campaign of Ukrainian attacks this year has hit refineries representing 25% of Russia’s total refining capacity of 6.8 million barrels per day, according to Lipow. About 50% of Russia’s refining capacity is within range of a Ukrainian drone attack, he said. The attacks will curtail Russian diesel exports and turn the country into a gasoline importer, he said. “We’re seeing oil prices rise, really being led by products on the back of these attacks which have been going on with some regularity since January,” Lipow said. “The market is pricing in higher and higher probabilities of supply disruptions especially when you damage refineries.”

A Ukrainian loss to Russia would hurt Washington’s credibility as a security provider, the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell warned during a trip to America. Kiev can’t wait for the presidential election in the US to get more aid, he added. Borrell spoke to the press in Washington, after meeting senior US officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken. He said his message was that Ukraine badly needed the additional assistance which was currently blocked in the US House. “The next months will be decisive. Many analysts expect a major Russian offensive this summer and Ukraine cannot wait until the result of the next US elections,” Brussels’ top diplomat said. A Russian victory in the conflict “will have enormous repercussions for America and for the system of alliances built around the US and Europe,” he added. Should that happen, “no country could be sure anymore” that Washington would “come to help any ally” under attack. Since Ukraine is not a NATO member, the US is not bound by any obligation to defend it. US President Joe Biden has pledged to help it fight Russia for “as long as it takes” to prevail. Last year, Ukrainian forces attempted to launch a major counteroffensive using Western-donated heavy weaponry, but failed to score any significant territorial gains. Amid Kiev’s battlefield failures, the issue of continued aid has become embroiled in US partisan politics. The Republican-controlled House has blocked Biden’s request for an additional $60 billion in assistance, with speaker Mike Johnson arguing that the White House was unable to present a convincing strategy for achieving victory in Ukraine. Borrell pledged the European Union’s continued military support for Kiev, but said the US needed to pull its weight too. Moscow perceives the Ukraine conflict as a US-led proxy war against Russia and has stated that it is risking far more than the West.

In the morning of March 16, there was a drone attack on two oil refineries in the Samara region of Russia. The Russian press reported on this. According to information, one of the drones fell on the territory of the oil refinery in Syzran. As a result, a fire started covering an area of 500 square meters. The drones, which are said to belong to Ukraine, also hit the Novokuybyshevsk oil refinery. The fire at the factory was extinguished for a short time. No casualties are reported.

In the morning of March 16, Russia's Belgorod region came under missile fire. The Russian press reported on this. As a result of the strike, two people died and there were injured. It is said that 15 cars were damaged, windows were broken in 7 buildings. It is reported that the missiles were fired by the RM-70 Vampire rocket launcher system.

Combat footage has been released, showing the "Freedom of Russian Legion", the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Siberian Battalion that jointly entered the territory of Russia's Belgorod and Kursk regions on March 12 and engaged in operations against the Russian armed forces. With the help of armored fighting vehicles, the fighters carried out the military operation from night till the morning, destroying the equipment and observation station as well as manpower of Russian invaders.

US Republican Senator Dan Sullivan has called on the Biden administration to threaten Iran with sinking its ships if its Yemeni proxy continues attacks against American vessels in the Red Sea, according to İran İnternational media outlet. “Tell Iran that the next Houthi missile or drone launched at an American ship will result in the sinking of Iran’s spy ships that target our Navy,” Senator Sullivan wrote in a letter to President Joe Biden. Pointing out that US attacks on Houthi targets have not deterred the Iran-backed US-designated group against attacking commercial ships, he argued that the only way to stop the Houthis’ assaults is letting Iran know that it would face direct consequences. He referred to a hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee last week, citing General Eric Kurilla, the Commander of US Central Command, as saying that that recent US strikes on Iranian proxies in the region “sent a very strong deterrent message.” Kurilla, however, said Iran was not deterred from assisting Houthi strikes on US military and civilian targets, emphasizing that “Iranian spy ships are providing the Houthis with targeting information to sink American ships and kill US sailors and Marines.” “Yet, Iran is facing zero consequences for this collusion... They are not paying the cost,” he said. “As General Kurilla also noted, however, deterrence is always temporary and Houthi terrorists in Yemen have not been as effectively deterred,” Sullivan said in his letter. “If we ever expect Tehran to call off its terrorist proxies and make deterrence more than a temporary respite, Iran must be made to pay a price.” During the hearing, Sullivan suggested Kurilla could order attacks to sink Iranian vessels after such an event, even thoughno US or allied vessels were damaged. Kurilla said that Biden would have to issue an order for such an operation. Sullivan asked the CENTCOM commander if he had recommended sinking Iranian ships to Biden. Kurilla answered, “I provide options ranging everything from cyber to kinetic and I also identify the risk of escalation and all of those options.”

Russia's alleged satellite signal jamming of a military aircraft carrying the British defense minister would—if confirmed—be Moscow's latest flirtation with a hard NATO red line; the safety of allied leaders. According to Newsweek, Grant Shapps was returning from a visit to observe NATO military drills in Poland, when interference occurred close to the Russian Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad, a strategic and heavily militarized location known as an electronic warfare hub. The interference lasted around 30 minutes, blocking cell and internet connection and forcing the aircraft to revert to alternative location technologies. An unnamed British Defense Ministry source told The Times that the Royal Air Force is "well prepared to deal with this," but suggested such measures put "an unnecessary risk on civilian aircraft and could potentially endanger people's lives." The incident, the source added, was "wildly irresponsible on Russia's part." However, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's spokesperson downplayed concerns. "It didn't threaten the safety of the aircraft and it is not unusual for aircraft to experience GPS jamming near Kaliningrad, which is of course Russian territory," they said. The Shapps incident is not the first, nor even the most serious, occasion on which a NATO member minister has potentially been endangered by Russian military activity. Just last month, a Russian missile struck Odessa while Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis was visiting the port city with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The missile fell somewhere between 700 and 1,600 feet of the Greek leader, according to multiple reports. Killing or wounding a NATO leader would not automatically trigger the alliance's Article 5 collective defense clause. While allies "agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all," members must agree to invoke Article 5. NATO's founding document notes that any military assistance must be given "in accordance with their respective constitutional processes," meaning the agreement of national decision-making bodies.

Journalists of Bild media tabloid have drawn attention to a passage of the interview of Russian President Vladimir Putin to the propagandist Dmitry Kiselev, in which he said: "It is ridiculous for us to negotiate now just because they are running out of ammunition." Columnist Philip Pyatov expressed the opinion that "this sentence alone makes it clear: Putin is using every military weakness to attack and achieve his goals of destroying Ukraine and enslaving the Ukrainian people." "This exposes the mindset of the dictator and the naivety of those politicians who believe in peace talks with the Russian Federation," the journalist emphasised. Pyatov noted that Ukraine is currently suffering losses on several fronts because of receiving not enough weapons and ammunition, and according to the logics of some politicians, Putin should be ready to negotiate under such conditions. "But the Russian dictator follows a completely different logic. By 'negotiation' Putin actually means nothing more than Ukraine's surrender," the columnist explained. Paul Ronzheimer, deputy editor-in-chief of the publication, also agrees with this assessment. "This is a response to all those who continue to demand steps from Ukraine and the West to make negotiations possible. Despite the failures of 2022, when his troops were not able to take Kyiv and he lost territories in the east and south, Putin's goal has never changed: Putin wants to destroy Ukraine by even greater numbers of his troops and military economy, to deprive it of its existence, to erase its culture. As for the West: if we can't do more, sooner or later Putin will achieve that goal. Time is now playing in his favour," the journalist stated.

Ukrainian Defence Intelligence has reported that authorities in the Russian Federation's Belgorod Oblast decided to evacuate local residents due to the operations carried out by Russian military volunteer groups. İntercepted conversation of a resident of the Russian Federation, a fragment of which was provided to Ukrainska Pravda by a source in Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence confirmed this. An intercepted conversation with a local resident indicates that the people of Grayvoron, Grayvoron district, Belgorod Oblast, Russian Federation, are being evacuated. "Uncle texted, basically, that buses are standing or going. Grayvoron is being evacuated. Mom called me, Dima called. They said they were evacuating", says intercepted conversation. Vyacheslav Gladkov, the governor of Belgorod Oblast, reported on Telegram that "the Grayvoron city district was again attacked by the Armed Forces of Ukraine". Gladkov stated there are casualties in the city. The Russian Volunteer Corps then issued a call to all residents of Kursk and Bryansk oblasts who did not have time or were unable to evacuate to seek shelter immediately. Russian volunteers from the Freedom of Russia Legion, the Sibir Battalion and the Russian Volunteer Corps liberated two settlements from the Putin regime and the "Second Army of the World" and continue to hold them. The volunteers said that they also decided to "go to Putin's elections. The volunteers said that they also decided to "go to Putin's elections." Moreover, in Ukraine, what they say in the liberation forces of the Russian Federation is only the beginning. Part of the village of Tetkino, which was liberated by Russian volunteers, changed its name in Titchine, and fighting is underway for another part of the village. In addition, it became known that the border Lozovaya Rudka of the Belgorod region was under the control of the liberation forces.

Ukrainian political strategist Mikhail Sheitelman said in an interview with UNIAN that the events taking place in Russia recently have made Putin look like a complete loser. A new raid by Russian volunteers is the hottest news for the rest of the week. It looks like they got serious. “I remember their second approach, when they also fussed there for quite a long time, and the Russians tried to knock them out for quite a long time. Putin also boasted about his exploits; the Great Patriotic War against the Russian Volunteer Corps was then going on in the Belgorod region. Now, at least, we know exactly what goals the volunteers are pursuing, they directly and very openly named them: participation in elections. Therefore, I think that they must hold out at least until Sunday in order to completely ruin the elections for Putin, to show that he does not rule this country”, Mikhail Sheitelman said. According to him, Putin personally — okay. “What’s more important here is what his team thinks now, what his elite thinks. The same governors. They are important people. Should be. Where should they go now? What should they tell their population? How should they answer for all this and to whom? In this situation, Putin was presented as a complete loser in front of his entourage. Let’s look at the political task of the war. The electorate is not important to us, we are not interested in what 140 million people think, what is important to us is what 1-2 million of the real elite of Russia think. And, most likely, the fighters of these battalions do not need to achieve the goal that they voice — advancing on Moscow. It seems to me that a revolution in the Kremlin can happen much faster — if volunteers move deeper and deeper within a week or two. And they can advance. Look how the Russian army runs. After all, practically no one resists. Entire checkpoints there fled. Question: why is everything left to chance? And the answer to this question is the simplest: they simply have no one.” The entire Russian army is in Ukraine. Everything else is just some kids who don’t understand how to fight. Meanwhile, professional soldiers came against them. Of course they will run away. There is no army inside the country. It is a fact. Today Russia can be taken with bare hands. If NATO had decided to capture Moscow or St. Petersburg, they would have taken it without losses, coming from Finland, Estonia, or Latvia”, Mikhail Sheitelman said.

Ukrainian doctor of political sciences Maksim Rozumniy believes that a scenario with a palace coup and appearance of a new political figure is possible in Russia He said this to Espesso media outlet. According to Maksim Rozumniy, Russia may fall into a certain time trap, which in chess is called "zugzwang" , a position in checkers and chess in which any move by a player leads to the deterioration of his situation. "In principle, this could happen in six months - some kind of 'palace' coup, Putin being replaced by someone and so on. This gives an opportunity for some new political figure to appear, who will start negotiating with the West and bargain good terms for himself. But if Putin even stays in power, these new conditions become worse and worse. That is, it may happen in 2-3 years," the expert said. In his opinion, the time when the active phase of hostilities will end is very important. "We are not saying when the war will end, because now we do not see the possibility and necessity to end it with some kind of treaty or agreement with the dictator. We are talking about the end of the active phase of hostilities. And the sooner this happens, the sooner Russians will start asking, what was it and what was it for?" Maksim Rozumniy explained. According to him, now, during the period of aggravation, Russian citizens instinctively support their army and president. However, once this is over, there will be a lot of questions about the young men lost in the war. "That is, it is such a lengthy process, but it can be accelerated by any circumstance," the expert believes. Eralier, a former CIA chief with three decades of experience in the intelligence field, Jack Devine expressed his belief that Putin's days are numbered, stating, "Putin could disappear tomorrow, and I wouldn’t be surprised if some element in the government had decided they were going to take executive action." Devine, who led thousands of spies on covert missions, points to Putin's increasingly unpredictable and dangerous behaviour, particularly his invasion of Ukraine, as the catalyst for his "political demise". The war in Ukraine, marked by brutal assaults and severe casualties, has led to a decline in Putin's popularity, Devine anticipated while also predicting a 'Black Swan' event or a palace coup, especially if Russia's efforts result in a "permanent stalemate" in Ukraine.