UPThinking Finance™

Kevin Flanagan started his career as a Fed watcher i.e. money market economist working on the trading floor. As a fixed-income strategist, he looks at things from a broad perspective because numerous things impact the bond market—economics, geopolitics, elections, etc. All play a role in how the bond market and interest rates are developed. He found it fascinating that you could look at the past and present to gain insight into the future. Kevin joins me in this episode of UPThinking Finance™ to shed some light on this confusing topic. ================================ LISTEN IF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN… [1:59] The “new” old-rate regime [8:36] When the Fed’s role shifted [14:51] Politics playing a role in policy [16:55] Current impacts on inflation [21:55] The impact of foreign money [24:50] What will happen with US debt? [28:40] The performance of the municipal market [30:45] Where Kevin sees the bond market headed [32:47] The connection between the 10-year and gold [35:02] How Kevin got into the fixed-income arena ================================= The “new” old-rate regime Before the financial crisis, double-digit interest rates did exist. After some time, we nestled into a 3–5% range. From 2010–2020 there were even negative rates. That period was abnormal. But because of recency bias, we’ve forgotten that what we’re seeing now is closer to a “normal” level. We’re moving back to normalcy. We likely can’t return to the pre-covid levels of interest rates. There’s also a generation of advisors and investors who have to be reeducated about interest rates. The volatility in the treasury market at the levels we’ve witnessed has to do with the uncertainty with interest rates. It’s the uncertainty that is new to the bond market. And the more open the Fed is with communication, the more openings there are for misinterpretation. The bottom line is that things can change very quickly. We can’t rely on what’s worked and must pivot and adapt. When the Fed’s role shifted It’s no secret that the main driver for the prices of the equity markets is the movement of the Fed. Bond guys like to say “Rates make the world go round.” Everything starts with interest rates. And who sets interest rates? The Federal Reserve. As things have evolved in the bond market, there was always a clamoring for the Fed to be more open. The process of open communication has evolved deliberately. The Fed now gives a policy statement, press conference, and summary of economic projections. Kevin believes there are three people you need to watch when the Fed makes its announcements—The Chairman, the Vice Chairmen, and the President. They speak on behalf of the Fed and policy. They may not always be the ones getting the media attention. For example, a Fed Governor is a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee. One of the governors, Christopher Waller, was on the hawkish side when the Fed started raising rates. When he changed his narrative, it added to the momentum of the market expecting a reversal toward rate cuts. The market rallied in the 4th quarter and got ahead of itself. The validation never came. The economy and labor markets are proving more resilient than expected and inflation is stuck in the mud. Everything is interrelated and important. Kevin feels that Powell is itching to cut rates. But they need a reason to do so. If that reason comes, the Fed will cut rates, regardless of it being an election year. Understanding outside impacts on inflation Why is the economy resilient? Why is there still inflation? Part of it is because there’s still a lot of money floating around. The amount of government stimulus that came post-covid was enormous. The US is running in a $2 trillion deficit because of government spending. That can’t be dismissed as a factor. How do elections impact inflation and the movement of the Fed, if at all? Where does Kevin see the bond market headed? Listen to hear Kevin’s expert opinion! Kevin Flanagan is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers. Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC. The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.

This episode marks the second anniversary of UPThinking Finance™. Alex Krainer was our guest for our first anniversary, so it made perfect sense to invite him back again. In this episode of UPThinking Finance™, he speaks on both financial topics and the ever-changing geopolitical landscape. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... The turmoil in the financial markets [2:02] How does this thing blow up? [6:45] Is a black swan event going to happen? [9:56] Will the Fed eventually lose its power? [15:09] Numerous countries are united in a hatred of the US [17:11] Why it’s time to find a different way [23:58] How Alex would overhaul the financial system [26:34] The current social arrangement doesn’t work [36:51] Is a black swan event going to happen? There are extreme market reactions that happen once every handful of years that come out of left field. Will something like this happen again soon? It’s risky to expect it and try to short it. When markets are trending they tend to continue trending. We’ve reached new historical highs. Sometimes these trends go vertical and trigger a buying panic in the market where it doesn’t matter what the valuation is. Predicting the top is never a thankful thing to do. Alex prefers to drive in the slow lane and follow the trends until it stops. You’ll never sell at the top but you’ll see a gradual reversal. Alex’s advice is to control risk and trust the trends more than predictions. It’s irresponsible to park your money and wait for a crash that never comes. But it’s also irresponsible not to find new ways of managing money. That’s where trend following comes into the conversation. You have to diversify risks so that if the herd goes off the cliff, at least part of your assets are adequately diversified. Numerous countries are united in hatred of the US Many countries are struggling under their loan terms with the World Bank. Egypt is spending close to 60% of its state budget to service the interest on its loans to the IMF. Countries like Egypt are impoverished—when they’re extraordinarily wealthy—because of their national debt. Ukraine has been dead last in terms of GDP growth even though it’s a resource-rich nation. They should be wealthy but they’re the poorest nation in Europe. Why? The IMF terms they have to live with. That’s why the BRICS nations are encouraging countries to trade in their own currencies between themselves. Countries like Egypt and Ukraine are being told by Russian and Chinese diplomats that if they trade with the BRICS group, and they default on their debts with financial institutions, and If they choose to renationalize their domestic resources, they won’t be penalized. What will these countries choose? We have to acknowledge and adapt to the changing environments. How Alex would overhaul the financial system Nomadic societies don’t need money. They survive. Most of the members of their community contribute to the well-being of the whole community. It takes the labor of 23 people to support a community of 21 individuals. If they settle down and master agriculture, they produce a surplus. Now, part of the community could build a bridge and trade with a neighboring community, creating more surplus. Then they have more labor dedicated to other things. Money should be a means of exchange that allocates the surplus of society to uses that improve the quality of life of that society. It doesn’t have to be gold or silver. It does have to reflect the productivity of the group. Money has to reflect the actual wealth of the society. We have to be ready with solutions for the future. The current social arrangement doesn’t work. We can’t afford to be passive as things are imploding. We are responsible for the way we leave the world for the next generation. How can we improve things? The allocation of credit has to be a democratic process. Everyone has the right to decide what happens in their lives. Alex Krainer is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers. Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC. The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. Connect With Alex Krainer alexkrainer.substack.com/ Connect on LinkedIn Connect with Emerson Fersch Capital Investment Advisers On LinkedIn Subscribe to Upthinking Finance Audio Production and Show Notes by - PODCAST FAST TRACK

If there was ever an industry where history repeats itself, finance is at the top of the list. Russell Napier has worked in investing for over 30 years. He’s written exceptional books, including “The Anatomy of the Bear” and “The Asian Financial Crisis.” He’s the Founder and Course Director for the Practical History of Financial Markets, an online course at the Edinburgh Business School. In 2014, he founded the charitable venture, “The Library of Mistakes,” a business and financial history library based in Scotland with branches in India and Switzerland. They recently threw their “Mistake of the Year Awards.” Listen to our conversation to learn from the mistakes that were made so that history doesn’t have to repeat itself. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... Learn more about the Library of Mistakes [1:57] 4 The Mistake of the Year Awards nominations [8:42] How quickly money can be lost [11:05] European governments backing pensions [13:09] The rapid decline of Farfetch [15:49] 3rd Place: Credit Suisse [19:33] 2nd Place: FTX [25:46] 1st place: The Silicon Valley Bank [32:33] The lessons learned from great mistakes [42:45] What is the Library of Mistakes? Russell came to financial markets as a lawyer. He took courses but didn’t feel like they taught him much about what he was witnessing in the markets. He felt that reading financial history was the fastest way to overcome the learning curve. It’s often easier to learn from past mistakes. “The Library of Mistakes” is a business and financial history library full of books that modern investors can learn from (dating back to the 17th century). They recently threw some awards to highlight—and learn from—some of the biggest mistakes in recent years. 3rd Place: The downfall of Credit Suisse Many banks aren’t content with being a local bank. They desire to grow so they can’t be taken over. The Swiss wanted to be a big player, so they put money on the line to play ball in the US Capital Market. They acquired service companies and overpaid for most—if not all—of them. They had depositors and a large wealth management business. The funds began to depart. It threatened the valuation of the bank. The second biggest bank in Switzerland was lost in a weekend and disappeared. Could this have been anticipated? 2nd Place: The Bankruptcy of FTX FTX raised $2 billion from investors, i.e. the “smartest” guys in the room. But they had no control over the investment and no oversight. Instead, they relied on the “geniuses” in the company. Without oversight, something going wrong was inevitable. The CEO was funding a different business with deposits. When depositors quickly started to withdraw funds, the missing money quickly became apparent and the company folded. This should have been prevented. 1st place: The Silicon Valley Bank The Silicon Valley Bank held a portfolio that was overly concentrated in long-term government bonds. In the summer of 2020, the yield on government bonds was at 5,000-year low. They lost 15 billion dollars. 85% of the deposit base wasn’t guaranteed. A bank has assets and liabilities. When your liabilities are worth more than your assets, it’s negative equity. If your asset price falls dramatically, people will notice. A bank without capital means a higher risk of your deposits being frozen. Numbers are declared to the stock market quarterly. Everyone saw how much the bank was losing on government bonds. Panic was spread via social media, which was part of the reason why the bank collapsed. More and more people attempted to withdraw their money until there was nothing left. Unfortunately, many of the accounts weren’t FDIC-insured. What can we learn from these great mistakes? How can we make things better? Listen to hear Russell’s professional opinion. Russell Napier is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers. Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC. The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. Resources & People Mentioned The Mistake of the Year Award: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tkisy3P-kxA&t=1716s The Library of Mistakes: https://www.libraryofmistakes.com/ The Library of Mistakes Podcasts: https://www.libraryofmistakes.com/podcasts/ The Psychopath Test: https://www.amazon.com/Psychopath-Test-Journey-Through-Industry/dp/1594485755 Connect With Russell Napier Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/russell-napier-81292846/ The Solid Ground Newsletter: https://russellnapier.co.uk/ Connect with Emerson Fersch Capital Investment Advisers: http://www.ciadvisers.com/ On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/emerson-fersch-50128b21 Subscribe to Upthinking Finance Audio Production and Show Notes by - PODCAST FAST TRACK

In today’s interview, you’ll get to meet my business partner: Amy LeNoble. Amy always dreamed of becoming a professional dancer. She attended Loyola Marymount University to pursue her vision, graduating with a bachelor’s degree in dance (while minoring in business administration). But Amy also developed a passion for finance. Over the last nine years, Amy grew from receptionist to administrative assistant to becoming a Licensed Registered Representative with LPL Financial, the largest independent brokerage in the United States. Now, Amy is my partner at Capital Investment Advisers. She shares her journey and the value she strives to bring to our clients in this episode of Upthinking Finance™. ================================ LISTEN IF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN… [00:00] Center Stage on Wall Street [4:04] Amy’s dream to become a professional dancer [13:18] Why Amy made a career shift from dance to finance [17:44] Would Amy do anything differently? [28:41] Amy’s experience climbing the ladder in finance [33:07] Amy’s strategy focuses on building relationships [46:32] The changes coming to the Upthinking Finance™ podcast ================================ Why Amy made a career shift from dance to finance Amy performed with a dance team in Kansas City. Once the tour was over, Amy took a job as a receptionist at a financial firm. She wanted to get paid while still auditioning for dance roles. That’s when she discovered that she enjoyed finance. Her boss encouraged her to move forward in the financial world. But could she shift her life away from focusing on dance? Dance is the sole reason why Amy knows her capabilities. It showed her that she was capable of practicing until something was perfect. It pushed her past her limits. It taught her resilience and discipline. Dance is the reason Amy has confidence, even though she didn’t reach her goals. It has brought her many successes. She also realized she could love both finance and dance. Diving into the world of finance A “Credo” is a set of beliefs that drive your purpose. If you are doing those things, you’re more likely to feel fulfilled. Amy spent time thinking about her vocational credo. Amy realized that she enjoys bringing relief to people—whether it comes from telling the truth, creative strategies, etc.—through discipline, hard work, and creative strategies. In one season of her life, she did this through dance. She sought to help people feel seen, heard, and understood. She realized as long as she was fulfilling her credo, it didn’t need to be in dance. In finance, she can talk with people about difficult and personal things and bring them relief. She enjoys discussing their finances and developing creative strategies to help them pursue their goals. Amy’s personality is to give 100% to whatever she embraces. When she accepted that her purpose could be fulfilled in finance, she went all in. She was an administrative assistant for two years before she transitioned to an office manager. In her fourth year with my office, she became a financial advisor and in year five became a partner. Amy’s strategy focuses on building relationships Every client we work with is inherently valuable. We value the relationship above the money. We place the relationships first in our interaction with clients. We serve our clients. Money is the means to an end, not an end. If someone only cares about making money, Amy doesn’t believe she’d be a good fit. If money is a part of attaining your goals, you’ve found a great partner in Amy. She’s relationship-focused, which leads to a multitude of successes often not talked about in the industry. Amy strives to get to know her clients. She wants to learn about their life, families, goals, and even fears. Her goal is to bring value to the whole person by providing confidence about your financial plan. We’re getting referrals, meeting new people, and helping people prioritize their goals. It’s because we’ve built valued relationships. Amy LeNoble is a Registered Rep with securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a Registered Investment Advisor, Member FINRA/SIPC. Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC. The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. ================================= CONNECT WITH AMY LENOBLE Capital Investment Advisers: http://www.ciadvisers.com/ Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/amy-lenoble-4785ba119/ ============================= CONNECT WITH EMERSON: Website: www.CIAdvisers.com

Is the dollar going to spiral out of control before it fizzles out? Could Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) be the financial system of the not-too-distant future? What would be the long-term ramifications of CBDCs? Melissa Ciummei—an independent investor and researcher—joins me in this episode of Upthinking Finance™ to discuss the implications of CBDCs and the global move toward digitalization. ================================ LISTEN IF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN… [00:00] CBDCs and the Coming Reset [1:56] Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) [6:00] The long-term ramifications of CBDC [10:32] Who is controlling the CBDC? [13:14] Are there obstacles to the central bank agenda? [22:41] Is this takeover actually going to happen? [35:48] What can we do to prevent a global currency takeover? [39:17] How we can cultivate more awareness of what’s going on [44:51] Where is God in all of this? How can we remain hopeful? Why are Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) being introduced? The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) was established in 1930 and is owned by 63 central banks representing countries from around the world. The mission of the BIS is to support central banks' pursuits of monetary and financial stability through international cooperation. They represent themselves as independent but Melissa believes that’s untrue. Melissa points out that since 1971, when the US currency moved away from the gold standard, it has been a race to the bottom. Every fiat currency fails. Everyone returns to zero. She emphasizes that the dollar will be no different. To keep things going, a new currency is being proposed in the US: Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). Melisa believes this currency is just a cover for a system where they can dictate where and when you transact within the economy. It’s a removal of freedoms. And when you don’t have the freedom to make your own transactions, every other freedom will fall away. Melissa thinks that their only competition is the crypto market—and that it’s easy to weaponize taxation to crush crypto. They’re also starting to close the on-ramps onto the exchanges. What does that mean? To use crypto, you tend to have to convert it back to a fiat currency and buy what you need to buy. If they close the off-ramps, your crypto is stuck as digital air, unless it’s being used as currency. Melissa believes that they don’t want to close the off-ramps because then people will be forced to use it as currency and it will become a threat. Melissa and I take a deep-dive into the world of central banks, CBDC, digital identities, and the ramifications of it all in this episode. Give the whole thing a listen! Melissa Ciummei is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers. Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC. The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. ================================ RESOURCES MENTIONED The BIS: https://www.bis.org/ The IMF: https://www.imf.org/en/Home The Better Way Conference: https://betterwayconference.org/ Russell Napier: https://russellnapier.co.uk/ WEF: Identity in a Digital World: https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_INSIGHT_REPORT_Digital%20Identity.pdf Note about the BIS: The content on that page is Established in 1930, the BIS is owned by 63 central banks, representing countries from around the world that together account for about 95% of world GDP. Its head office is in Basel, Switzerland and it has two representative offices: in Hong Kong SAR and in Mexico City, as well as Innovation Hub Centres around the world. They are not independent if they are owned by the global central bank system. ================================= CONNECT WITH MELISSA CIUMMEI Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/KSCUBKEE ============================= CONNECT WITH EMERSON: Website: www.CIAdvisers.com

Steve Knight has been in the aviation industry for 50 years. He holds an airline transport pilot certificate, a commercial pilot certificate, a flight engineer certificate, and a certified flight instructor certificate. He’s flown more than 22,000 hours on seven types of aircraft, all over the world. He’s been Chief Pilot, Director of Operations, Fleet Captain, and Standards Captain. He spent 39 years at United Airlines, flying the Boeing 777 and 747, before retiring. In this special episode of Upthinking Finance™, Steve Knight shares a view from the cockpit. ================================ LISTEN IF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN… [00:00] A view from the cockpit [2:20] The importance of standard operating procedures (SOPs) [12:05] Steve’s experience(s) navigating problems outside the cockpit [14:03] Why developing friendships with coworkers can be difficult [15:33] Is a 40-year tenure with an airline common? [17:19] When the government no longer subsidized air travel [20:53] The impact of technology on aircraft [25:14] How Steve reconciles technology with experience [29:07] Two crash landings that changed the industry [34:14] The most challenging airports for pilots [41:08] Steve’s favorite views from the cockpit [45:20 How Steve’s travel has changed his view of the world The importance of standard operating procedures (SOPs) Aircraft live and die by standard operating procedures (SOPs). On any given day, you might be flying a long-haul international trip with three people you’ve never flown with before. You have rigid SOPs so everyone knows what to expect. SOPs cover everything from starting the engine, to taxiing, to take-off, to landing, and everything in between. Before takeoff, the pilot usually addresses the passengers to share what to expect (how long the flight will be, the weather, and whether or not they expect any rough air). Typically, they have four pilots on the long haul flight from LA to Sydney that Steve ended his career flying. There are usually 15 flight attendants and 250–300 passengers. It’s a small city going to 35,000 feet, which is why procedures are of paramount importance. The impact of technology on aircraft Steve started flying when they still used analog instruments. He started with dials and gauges. Now, the cockpit is covered in computer screens. Pilots went from primarily flying an airplane to primarily managing an airplane. It’s a large safety improvement but a huge learning curve. Steve emphasized that pilots need to be able to fly both ways. Since he started flying, they’ve implemented Traffic Collision Avoidance Systems (TCAVs) that will alert pilots if there’s a mid-air conflict. The computer not only tells them to descend or climb but the two airplanes can communicate with each other so one plane climbs while the other descends. When Steve first started as a flight engineer, he manually tracked when the plane took off and landed. Now they have ACARS—Aircraft Communications, Addressing and Reporting System. So when you look at the app on your phone to see when your flight will land, that information is sent automatically. How else has improving technology impacted the airline industry? Listen to find out! Steve’s favorite views from the cockpit Steve has flown all over the world for the last three decades. On a route from Europe to the West Coast of the US, he’d often see the Northern Lights across Canada, which was incredibly beautiful. When the volcano in Iceland erupted in 2010, they could see the volcano erupting in the distance. Steve was flying a charter of camera crews to the Beijing Olympics in 2008. He’d flown this many times, which usually went over the north pole and you come in over Mongolia into Beijing. The smog is typically so bad that you don’t see the airport until you’re half a mile away. But Beijing was so concerned about the optics of hosting the Olympics that they shut down factories, didn’t let people drive their cars, and implemented other things to reduce the smog for the Olympics. So when Steve flew into Beijing on that trip, he could see the whole city from 50 miles away—a site to behold. Don’t miss this episode for a fascinating glimpse into the world of aviation from the lens of a pilot! Steve Knight is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers. Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC. The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. ============================= CONNECT WITH EMERSON: Website: www.CIAdvisers.com

Starting a business is both challenging and exciting. I cannot deny the hand of God in my work at Capital Investment Advisers. I’m surrounded by some of the best people I could collaborate with daily. But a lot can go wrong when you run your own business. A lot can go wrong when you take an idea and create something that generates revenue and makes a difference in people’s lives. You can get to a point where everything is exactly how you want it—but you have to work to keep it there. Today’s guest, Sunil Dovedy, is with a company that specializes in change management—the Adizes Institute. They strive to help companies create a healthy culture of collaborative leadership. He’s worked in fast-paced and innovative environments to drive organizations to superior levels of achievement. He shares how to navigate the challenges many businesses face in this episode of Upthinking Finance™. ================================ LISTEN IF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN… [00:00] Don't miss this episode with Sunil Dovedy! [4:04] Learn more about Adizes Institute [6:32] Applying life cycles to business [15:38] Saving an organization past its prime [19:39] The problems companies face with growth [28:01] The dynamics of family businesses [39:15] The heartfulness connection [46:55] How to connect with Sunil Dovedy Learn more about the Adizes Institute Sunil was in software for over 20 years when he happened to meet Dr. Adizes. Sunil notes that he’s one of those people that you feel privileged to meet. Dr. Adizes takes the typical management processes and simplifies them so that even those without a degree can manage effectively. It’s applying common sense principles to management. Sunil’s company applied Dr. Adize’s principles and he was blown away. So in 1999, he joined him on a crusade. He’s been working to transform how management is taught and practiced ever since. He shares that it’s been a wonderful 20-year journey. Applying life cycles to business management Everyone experiences life cycles. Things are born, they grow, they age, and they die. Dr. Adizes discovered that the human lifecycle can be applied to numerous other systems—including businesses. The corporate lifecycle goes through 10 stages, from an idea to infancy to growth to operating in its prime. But many businesses reach a stage where they start to disintegrate and die when they face challenges and can’t adapt. The book, “The Myth of Capitalism,” explores the idea that companies don’t want to compete with each other. They’d rather become oligopolies and co-exist. They spend billions of dollars on research and development, but it’s incomparable to their revenue. They lack innovation. The fall begins when they lose vision. Sunil and the Adizes Institute seek to help businesses change this dynamic. Saving an organization past its prime Knowing where your company is in its lifecycle is important. The way you parent an infant, a toddler, and an adolescent is quite different. You have to shift your parenting style in each phase. It’s the same in a business. One of the biggest challenges is getting to and staying in prime. It’s not about the age or size of the organization, but its behavior. Once you know where you are, you can move to the next stage. You can continue through the normal ebb and flow of your business’s lifecycle until it’s dead—or you can start a new lifecycle. Aristocracy organizations can start again, but they often have to change their beliefs. Sunil Dovedy is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers. Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC. The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. ================================ RESOURCES MENTIONED Breakthrough to Prime: https://www.adizes.com/breakthrough-to-prime The Myth of Capitalism: https://www.amazon.com/Myth-Capitalism-Monopolies-Death-Competition/dp/1119548195 Small is Beautiful: https://www.amazon.com/Small-Beautiful-Economics-Mattered-Perennial/dp/0061997765 ================================= CONNECT WITH SUNIL DOVEDY Adizes Institute Worldwide: https://www.adizes.com/ adizesinfo(at)adizes.com ============================= CONNECT WITH EMERSON: Website: www.CIAdvisers.com

One of the challenges financial planners face is figuring out how to determine an individual's risk tolerance and explain it to them. The challenge is helping clients understand what a downside looks like and feels like. It’s hard to prepare people for the ups and downs of the market. In 2011, software was developed to more effectively communicate the declines in the market. That software is better known as Riskalyze. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, Aaron Klein—the Co-Founder and CEO of Riskalyze—shares more about the company that invented the risk number to help quantify, explain, and define risk. ================================ LISTEN IF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN… [00:00] Riskalyze CEO Aaron Klein [3:40] The origins of Riskalyze [10:56] Aaron’s experience developing Riskalyze [15:42] How Riskalyze helps financial advisors [20:20] The Riskalyze stress test [31:26] Can you misuse the tool? [34:17] How I came across Riskalyze [37:04] Using Riskalyze for portfolio research [43:10] Riskalyze’s commitment to treating people well [49:30] Aaron’s favorite thing about Riskalyze [53:04] The important work Aaron is doing in Ethiopia ================================ What does Riskalyze do? Riskalyze is designed so that a financial advisor can tell their story. It’s a technology that helps determine how much risk a customer is comfortable with in their portfolio. It also helps measure the risks you need to take towards reaching your goals. It helps you see the risk you currently have in your portfolio. Once you understand those factors, you can answer how much risk you should have. Riskalyze helps financial advisors simplify risk tolerance Aaron points out that they didn’t invent the concept of getting clients to understand risk. There are two things financial advisors have been told to never address—risk and short-term. The challenge is that investors react to risk in the short term. Everyone understands on some level that when you invest in something, you run the risk of the value dropping. A large part of their success is that Aaron’s co-founder is a financial advisor. He brought a unique perspective. But shaping the product was Aaron’s full-time job. He always approached it from a lens of, “How would I explain this to my dad? How would I explain this to my wife?” They want Riskalyze to be the tool that financial advisors use to help their clients see and understand what they’ve already been telling them for years. The Riskalyze stress test There is always a 5% risk in any portfolio that cannot be quantified. That risk includes things like the housing market crash, the Covid-19 pandemic, the inflation crash, etc. Those things happen and cannot be predicted. The job of a financial advisor is to control the 95% of the risk that is quantifiable. If you look at that range, you can point out that normal behavior for the Risk 45 portfolio might be down 8% to up 12% over 6 months. There’s a 5% chance that it will be worse. But that doesn’t mean that you bail when you hit that 5% probability chance. The stress test function in Riskalyze allows you to see your portfolio when it hits a 5% probability event. Looking at this helps build credibility with your clients. They’ll trust you and follow your advice. The role of Riskalyze when working with a financial advisor Investors can be successful with the help of an amazing financial advisor. That advisor should be equipped with the best technology to be able to explain their approach. It’s never about changing how the advisor advises—but about helping them tell their story. You get to bring your expertise to the table. Riskalyze focuses on helping financial advisors engage with clients, get clients on track, build better portfolios, and help their clients get to the other side more effectively. Aaron Klein is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers. Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC. The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. ================================ RESOURCES MENTIONED Building a StoryBrand: https://www.amazon.com/Building-StoryBrand-Clarify-Message-Customers-ebook/dp/B06XFJ2JGR ================================= CONNECT WITH AARON KLEIN Riskalyze: https://www.riskalyze.com/ Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aaronklein/ ============================= CONNECT WITH EMERSON: Website: www.CIAdvisers.com

The political and socio-economical world is changing rapidly. What’s happening isn’t just a part of the normal cycle. So how do we adapt in these changing times? In this episode of UpThinking Finance™, Rodrigo Gordillo shares why low inflation isn’t normal, talks about the Fed’s over-reliance on fiscal spending, and his company’s concept of return stacking (and how it works). ================================ LISTEN IF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN… [2:40] Learn more about Rodrigo Gordillo [7:33] How Rodrigo got into quantitative analysis [11:13] How Rodrigo connected with his co-founders [14:23] Why 40 years of low inflation isn’t normal [18:55] The Fed’s over-reliance on fiscal spending [23:56] Rodrigo’s concept of return stacking [38:09] Why companies don’t offer commodities funds [46:00] Some of Rodrigo’s favorite resources ================================ RESOURCES MENTIONED Bridgewater Bridgewater Associates YouTube ================================= CONNECT WITH GUEST NAME ReSolve Asset Management Return Stacked™ 60/40: Absolute Return Index Return Stacking™: Strategies For Overcoming a Low Return Environment Connect with Rodrigo on LinkedIn Connect with Emerson Fersch ============================= CONNECT WITH EMERSON: Capital Investment Advisers On LinkedIn Website: www.CIAdvisers.com

Kandee Anderson has worked for Marriott since December of 1988—34 years. How many people can say that? Her accomplishments are broad and deep. She started as a Sales Manager at a Residence Inn in Southern California. She worked her way up to a GM position at that property before moving into marketing and sales as a Regional Sales Director. Eventually, Kandee became the General Manager for several properties in Southern California. She’s the GM of the Irvine Marriott, located in Orange County. She’s led convention marketing strategies, won awards for customer service, received profitability recognition, and has facilitated leadership training within the company. Kandee has done it all. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™ Kandee shares how she advanced in the industry, talks about the challenges she faced along the way, and shares her thoughts on the future of the hotel industry. Don’t miss it! ================================ LISTEN IF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN… [3:18] What drew Kandee to the hotel industry? [5:24] Finding balance in a demanding job [7:43] How Kandee advanced in the industry [12:53] Defining moments in Marriott’s history [17:41] The evolution of Marriott hotels [21:00] The challenges of the expansion process [24:15] How Covid has impacted the hotel industry [29:16] Kandee’s thoughts on the future of the industry [31:59] What Kandee is most proud of in her career [34:23] Kandee’s favorite hotel in the world ================================ THE EVOLUTION OF MARRIOTT HOTELS Marriott was actually a food and beverage company for 30 years. It wasn’t until 1957 that J.W. Marriot purchased his first full-service “motor hotel.” It was very successful for them and they continued to diversify. In 1987, they purchased the brand Residence Inn. It was their first acquisition. Courtyard, Fairfield Inn, and Springhill suites were all built from within to cater to every possible customer. Their portfolio also includes full-service and luxury hotels, such as the Ritz-Carlton, the Renaissance brand, and many other international brands. The first international hotel was in Acapulco Mexico in 1975. They’ve grown this amazing machine with different brands. What challenges has the company faced during its extensive growth? Listen to learn more! HOW NAVIGATING COVID CHANGED EVERYTHING J.W. Marriott founded his hotels with the sole purpose of putting people first. His motto was “If you take care of your associates, they will take care of the customers.” Because of this belief, Marriott was one of the few companies that kept benefits for all of their employees during the Covid pandemic, even if they were furloughed. Now that the world is recovering from the impact of the pandemic, there’s a lot more leisure travel. But corporate travel is in flux. Companies are looking at different ways to do meetings. So from an occupancy standpoint, the leisure side is strong. All of the business realm has room to grow. HOW KANDEE ADVANCED IN THE INDUSTRY Kandee was the first female General Manager at her hotel. When she first started at Marriott, women couldn’t wear pants. They were treated differently. But she’s never been passed up for a promotion or been stopped because she was a woman. She’s broken through many barriers because of her grit and determination. She also had great mentors that encouraged her to keep pushing upward. She had always been fearless and confident, even as a young child. She is always the first person to raise her hand in meetings and is always part of the conversation. She wasn’t afraid to raise her voice and bring her knowledge and experience to the table. Kandee is proud to do something she loves while making a good living. She accomplished her financial goals in a way where she was happy and able to spend time with her family. She chased balance and a financially rewarding life. She did what she loved and didn’t pursue things that pulled her away from her family. What does the future of the hotel industry look like? How is Kandee pivoting at her hotel to navigate changes in the economy? Listen for a fascinating look inside the hotel industry and how it operates. Kandee Anderson and Marriott are not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers. Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC. The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. ================================ RESOURCES MENTIONED: Marriott: https://www.marriott.com/ ================================= CONNECT WITH KANDEE ANDERSON Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kandee-anderson-6352444/ ============================= CONNECT WITH EMERSON: Website: www.CIAdvisers.com

Oil is a global commodity. When President Nixon took the United States off the Gold Standard, it created difficulty with global commodities. At that time, the major oil producers around the world agreed that oil would be priced in dollars globally (which led to the term “Petro-dollar”). When you link something to a currency, it can be inflationary or deflationary. We prefer the dollar to be strong, which makes the stuff we buy more affordable. Right now, the dollar is strong, but we aren’t seeing deflation. We are in an environment that isn’t following the “rules” of economic textbooks. So in this episode of Upthinking Finance™, Chris Pusak—a Client Portfolio Manager at Cushing Asset Management—helps dissect the energy sector. We talk about both the local and global impact of oil production and distribution, why fracking won’t end, and weigh in on the various political and economic factors. Don’t miss this episode! ================================ LISTEN IF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN… [4:39] Learn more about Cushing Asset Management [7:31] Why the energy sector plays a huge role in the economy [11:11] Dissecting the influence and impact of OPEC [13:16] The two common types of drilling for oil [17:46] How the green movement will impact the future of energy [25:36] Why the price of natural gas is immensely volatile [27:32] The political impact on the rising price of gas [32:13] Where is the energy industry headed? The two common types of drilling for oil At some point, Chris points out that the world will start to run out of oil. We may completely deplete oil from the planet. The Saudis do conventional drilling and draw from a pool from an underground oil reserve (it’s like sucking the oil out with a straw). The US mainly engages in hydraulic fracturing. Oil drilling was a risky business before this technique was developed. With hydraulic fracturing, you put the drill bit down two miles (10,000 feet) and then turn it sideways and drill out two miles. This allows you to “sweep” the area so you never miss. With hydraulic fracturing, you get the most production from a fractured well in the first 2–3 years, and then production declines quickly. Because of the way these wells work, you consistently have to drill new wells to keep production levels steady. It’s expensive and requires a lot of capital upfront. Oil companies are motivated to drill to maximize profits and that’s the simple reality. How the green movement will impact the future of energy There is a transition taking place. However, the problem is that the green movement is trying to flip the switch too quickly. Many countries can’t meet the demand for green energy. Chris points out that only 3% of power today is generated from non-carbon fossil fuel sources. Because of this, banning fracking is impractical. Globally, oil is mainly a transportation fuel. Chris believes that there will be a day when oil is unimportant to the world. But Chris isn’t sure that will happen during our lifetimes. The case for fracking: natural gas Natural gas has greater longevity. Why? Because when you drill for natural gas, you get a dry gas (methane), which is converted to electricity. The US has reduced its carbon footprint by reducing power generation from coal to methane. Methane now contributes to 40% of power generation in the US. Wet gasses that are drilled include butane, propane, and methane. Butane is common in lighters. Propane is used as a source for heating and cooking. Methane gas is one of the main ingredients in plastics. Chris emphasizes that “If you ban fracking…you would send the price of all energy into the hypersphere, creating massive inflation and a global depression—as if we were living in 1875.” Recently, because of the pandemic and energy policies in Europe, the price of natural gas has skyrocketed from $2 to $60–$70 in Europe. It’s $9 for 1 million BTUs in the US. Where is the oil industry headed? What is the influence of OPEC and the IEA on the energy industry? Listen to the whole episode to learn more about what impacts the pricing of oil & gas and how it impacts you. Chris Pusak is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers. The opinions expressed in this material do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial. Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC. The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered o ================================= CONNECT WITH CHRIS PUSAK Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/christopherjpusakcima/ ============================= CONNECT WITH EMERSON: Website: www.CIAdvisers.com