Suchomimus

Satellite photos show the latest naval activity and SAM systems at Snake Island. So, it seems Russia is trying to reinforce the island and establish more of a foothold there. So these satellite photos were released on May 25th. The first one shows an increased amount of naval activity—seven ships spotted around the island. 1 - We have Project 02690 self-propelled floating crane. 2 – Sev-er-let- bob-rov with a Pantsir S1 sam system 3 – A Grachonok-class anti-saboteur ship 4 – A BK-16 High-speed landing craft being towed 5 – An known tug 6 – A Serna-Class landing craft with a possible TOR sam system 7 – An empty Serna-class landing craft. Likely dropped off a SAM system As well as Naval activity, we also have increased defence on the island itself. Satellite images seen here show there are now 10 vehicles on the island. These haven’t been identified, but it’s likely some of them are SAM systems arnd various vehicles used to support SAM systems such as loaders. So Russia is definitely beefing up its anti-air defences. Unfortunately, if they keep gaining a foothold like this, they will be difficult to dislodge. Especially with the amount of air power being sent which will make Bayraktar or aircraft strikes very risky. Finally—we have this last picture. This floating crane has been around the island for a while now, and has been thought to be either recovering the sunken Serna-class boat or used to unload the Sev-er-let Bob-rov. Possibly even both. On this image, we can see that the Serna-class boat has been recovered by the crane.

Ukraine's Stugna-P anti-tank guided missile has seen a lot of success in the Ukraine War. But how does it work? Stugna-P entered service in 2011. It is an anti-tank guided missile designed to destroy modern armored targets, either stationary or moving. It is quite variable—able to hit from up to 5km to as short as 100m. At night, the max range is shortened to 3km. It is unusual in design compared to anti-tank weapons such as the Javelin and the NLAW which we have seen in action as the system consists of a tripod launcher and a laptop-like control panel with a joystick and display. This is connected to the firing unit by a cable. Looking at the launcher system—the Stugna-P uses a laser guidance system—the PN-I which can be used during day and night. This PN-I features a television surveillance and sighting system, a laser range finder, a laser guidance system and a control system for the axes of the missile. While this may seem clunkier and less portable than, say, the NLAW shoulder-launched system, it has one key advantage—the crew can fire it from up to 50 meters away from the launcher. This allows the tripod launcher to be set up in an ambush position and an attack launched without the operators exposing themselves to danger. This tactic is used quite often—in a New York times article, a Stugna-P operator waited for three days for a shot at a Russian convoy, setting up an ambush position on a stretch of road. It can also be used as a a static defensive position to grind an attack to a halt rather than ambush. The standard unit needs to manually steered, but the pricier systems are fire and forget. Now, while on the surface, fire and forget seems the best option, manually steered does allow for rapid changes—possible reasons could be instead guiding it onto a second, nearby target or, diverting the attack altogether, such as if there are friendlies or civilians nearby. At its max range, the fight time is 20 seconds, which is a long time on a battlefield. Plenty can happen, so guiding the missile to its target and allowing changes does have an advantage over fire and forget. Another advantage is the cost. Stugna-P costs just $20,000 for a unit. Javelin can cost three times as much as Stugna-P. So Ukraine can churn out more Stugna-P units for the fraction of a cost. NLAW units cost around $40,000, so again, a pricier bit of kit than the Stugna. It’s range is also an advantage over other systems. As mentioned, it can hit from 100m to 5km. The NLAW has an effective range of 20 meters to 800 meters—or 0.8 km. The Javelin up to 2.5 km. An unexpected advantage of Stugna-P is the viewing monitor and live feed. Why? Because it allows soldiers to easily record their kills. We have plenty of videos of Stugna-P strikes. This is important as it is effective propaganda. Showing video footage of kills—sharing them online not only shows the world that you’re winning. It demoralizes the enemy—if they see it. It makes them fearful. Then, of course, with the world seeing how effective the weapon is, it brings in new orders. We saw all of this with Azerbaijan and the footage of Bayraktar strikes. Disadvantages. It is bigger, heavier and less portable. The Stugna-P weighs 214 lbs compared to 49 lbs for the Javelin and 27 lbs for the NLAW. So it needs a larger vehicle to transport around than the Javelin and NLAW—which we have seen been transported on electric bikes. It also requires a 3-person team to operate, whereas the Javelin and NLAW can be used by a single operator. Another disadvantage is it takes longer to unpack and set up. NLAW can be raised, sighted, aimed and fired in just 6 seconds. Stugna-P needs unpacking, mounting and connecting to its guidance system. It is also an open-country weapon. Given its minimum range of 100m, it isn’t really suitable for urban conflict where enemy vehicles will likely be in close proximity. The NLAW, by comparison, is effective from just 20 meters, making it perfect for urban warfare. Because of its size, weight, the three-person team and long minimum range. The Stugna-P is a more suitable to specialized, planned ambushes than opportunistic strikes. Setting a Stugna-P system along a supply route or as a defensive measure to protect a specific location are the best uses of the weapon, whereas the Javelin and NLAW given their smaller size and ease of use can be more varied in use. So, why is the Stugna-P such an effective tank killer? It can be programmed to dive down from 10 meters towards the thinner, top armor of a tank. In much the same way as the Javelin, though at a shallowed angle than the javeline missile. Then there is the warhead. The standard RK-2S missile has a 22-pound tandem charge warhead which is designed to preemptively trip the bricks of the explosive reactive armour used on Russian tanks. This warhead can penetrate 800 millimeters behind the tanks reactive armor.

Roshel Senator is a 4X4 APC that is been sent to Ukraine by Canada. This time, the Senator armored vehicles from Ukraine have arrived. The delivery of Senators was announced back in April. It is a 4X4 APC and a pretty new weapon in Canada’s arsenal. It has thick armor and the glass can resist .50 caliber rounds. The armor of the Senator can be customed from package 1—the lowest—to level 4 which can withstand AP rounds. It can carry 12 soldiers The vehicle packs a punch too, containing various gunpoints allowing the soldiers inside the fire out and a turret at top which can be fitted with different equipment and weapons depending on the mission. The Senator is very high-tech. It features a piece of equipment called a CBRN which stands for Chemical, Biological Radiological and Nuclear. It is a self-containing air conditioniong and filtration system allowing the passengers inside the breathe easily. It is also able to detect a variety of gases and radiation levels and gfeatures a number of different 360 degrees surveillance systems including thermal imagers. It’s a big beast too—over 19 foot long---but for a vehicle of its size, it’s quite speedy-- 80mph on the road.

Patron is a Jack Russell Terrier trained to sniff out bombs in Ukraine. I thought I would do a different video as a break from the usual weapons and military movements ones. Hope you like it. Patron has become a bit of a symbol in Ukraine and around the world. His Instagram page has over 200,000 followers and videos and photos of him often get thousands of likes. We’ve seen him proudly posing over disarmed bombs, being carried in a little bag and stubbornly refusing to let go of a stick. So, who is Patron? Patron is Jack Russell trained to sniff out bombs, landmines and unexploded ordnance. As of May, the little guy has detected over 200 explosives, and he clearly loves his job—doing it all with his tail tagging constantly. Patron is deployed in the norththeastern city of Chernihiv, which Russia put under siege for almost six weeks. The city was shelled constantly by Russian forces and before the city can return to normality, these shells need detecting and removing. It is harder than it seems—even today, unexploded WW2 bombs can still occasionally be discovered. Patron’s name means “ammo” or ‘;cartridge. As well as being the face of Ukraine’s efforts to remove Russian artillery shells and unexploded ordnance, he is also the mascot of the State Emergency Services. Patron is just two years old, but is proving to be a vital part of the Ukraine Armed Forces. Not only for his bomb-sniffing abilities, but also because he offers a cute side of the conflict to be shared online. Sure, people see these images of a a cute little Jack Russell with a wagging tail, but they also see images of the destruction of Russian towns and the carnage left behind—shells and bombs that could easily detonate and kill or maim innocent people. Using a dog to put a cute face on the war is a great way to raise awareness. While people may gloss over yet another miserable report on unexploded artillery shells being found, they won’t if that same report shows a cute little dog scrambling through the dirt. For his efforts, Patron has received a medal for dedicated service by President Zelenskyy. His owner and handler, Mykhailo Iliev received the Order for Courage. Patron was originally intended to be a pet, until his owner, Mykhailo Iliev realized how strong his nose was and how smart he was. So, instead, at the age of six months, Patropnn started his training. He actually wasn’t intended to be a bomb-sniffing dog. The original intention was for him to demonstrate the skills that dogs could learn. The training that bomb-sniffing dogs receive and the length of time it takes to train varies from country to country. Typically, classixxcal conditioning is used and training takes between 24 to 32 weeks. An example of a typical training used in the US is laying out 100 identical cans in a grid. Ingredients from various explosives are placed in random cans. These select explosive odors are imprinted on the dogs train by repetition and reward. When a dog finds a bomb, it won’t dig it up itself. They would usually just sit down, giving a sign to the handler that there is something suspicious. This is also true of drugs dogs at airports. So if you see one of the customs dog sit down in front of someone at the airport—you know they’re likely carrying something they’re not supposed to. So, why dogs? Well, billions of dollars have been spent trying to design artificial detectors and they’re just not as good. Metal detectors are limited as they only detect metal—dogs can be trained to pick up on non-metallic explosive devices concocted from fertilizer and other items. Artificial attempts to replicate this have failed. For example, in 2001, artificial machines to detect explosives were outperformed by the dogs—the machine s reacting to plants and soil as well as explosives. A study in 2010 revealed that 80 percent of IEDs detected before exploding were found by dogs. So for all the technology available, a dog is still the best thing to detect bombs. Dogs aren’t the only animals used. Rats have been used, notably in Cambodia. In 2021, Magawa the bomb-sniffing rat was retired after a five year career in which he found 71 landmines. He got a little gold medal. Bees too are being used, working in conjunction with drones which track the bees which are trained to associate the smell of explosives with food—a sugar solution. But, since this video is about Patron, I’ll finish by adding that his favorite food is cheese and that there is a movie planned about him. He continues to be a symbol of the war in Ukraine and a mascot for the country.

Germany will send Flakpanzer Gepard AA guns to Ukraine in July. A little video update here. So, a while back we heard that Germany was considering sending some of it its Ge-pard vehicles to Ukraine. Well, we now have a number—15 and a date, July. They will also be sent with 59,000 rounds of ammunition. There are also more to be sent at a later date when ready. A number I have seen is a total of 50. The Flakpanzer Gepard is one of the coolest looking vehicles. I really like the overall appearance of these tracks AA guns like the Gepard and the ZSU-23-4 or the Tunguska. They just look awesome machines, and the Gepard may be the coolest looking of the lot. The Gepard is an almost-50 ton, tracked vehicle based on the hull of a Leopard 1. It is basically someone whacked an AA cannon on a tank. with a crew of three—a driver, gunner and commander. It is armed with a pair of 35mm autocannons. Each gun is capable of laying down an impressive 550 rounds per minute---a continuous firing time of 37 seconds before running out of ammo. The autocannons have an effective range of 5.5 kilometers—so pretty far. The radar can detect aircraft from further out—as far as 15km. Germany had 377 originally, but retired them in 2010. 94 were put into storage, and it is these being sent to Ukraine. The fact they have been in storage for so long is why it is taking a while to get them ready. Now, while designed as an AA gun, the Gepard can also be used against vehicles. It typically carries 20 rounds of anti-armor ammo for self-defence. Looking at this little chart here, Gepard is the top line and depending on the range, it can bite through from close to 50mm of armor to around 75mm of armor. For point of reference, the MP 1 has armor of just 33mm. The Gepard would shred it.

Neptune Anti-ship missile, Harpoon missile and the Naval Strike Missile may all be in Ukraine. This compares the Neptune, Harpoon and NSM and their coverage in the Black Sea. So, yesterday we heard more talk about Harpoons and anti-ship missiles been sent to Ukraine. Another missile mentioned was the Naval Strike Missile developed by Norway. Ukraine does, of course, have the Neptune missile. But numbers are low, so they urgently do need more anti-ship missiles. They did receive the Brimstone missile from Britain, but these are more aimed at short-range defence against small landing craft rather than striking a large ship from range. That isn’t to say they aren’t useful. For example, looking at the specs for the Harpoon RGM4 variants, we can see it has a minimum range of 13km, making it useless against close-range targets, so a second line of defence by Brimstone would be needed to defend the coastline. But in this video, I thought I would take a look at the Neptune Missile and two proposed other long-range missiles and see just what areas of Ukraine’s coast they would be able to defend if deployed. Now, the obvious place for deployment would likely be in and around odessa as that would be the main target for an amphibious assault, so for this video, I am going to use odessa as the firing point. We will start with Ukraine’s own Neptune, which has a range of around 300km. I will use yellow as the circle for Neptune. As you can see, Neptune covers pretty much all of the North and North Western Black Sea—from Odesa, it can almost reach Sevastopol and can hit targets well beyond Snake Island—shown on the map as “Bile.” But, Ukraine doesn’t have many of them, so can’t rely on Neptune alone. Ukraine needs to be selective when hitting targets with Neptune so as not to waste them—and of course, antiship missiles can be shot down. But, it does cover a lot of ocean. Next we will look at Norway’s Naval Strike Missile. In red. This has a range of 185km. As you can see, less than the Neptune but still a substantial part of the Black Sea. Again, it is capable of hitting targets well beyond Snake Island, though can’t reach Sevastopol. Now, the Harpoon—it is tricky, as there are many Blocks of missile all with different ranges, and we don’t know which one Ukraine is going to be sent. We do know it would be the RGM-84 variant as that is the naval or ground-launched version. That has a max range—depending on block of 124km to around 280 km. So, for Harpoon—we will do the minimum range—black and the maximum range—white, to cover our bases. So, again—a wide tract of the Black Sea would be covered. The lower range harpoons wouldn’t reach Snake Island, but the longer range one would. And it would also reach close to Sevestapol. Now, if Ukraine received enough of the long-range Harpoons to go with the Neptune, they could—theoretically--keep Russia’s Black Sea Fleet at Sevastapol stuck in harbor. Or at the least, severely restrict and hinder movements. Snake Island a is a hot spot in the battle. Now, it is generally resupplied by a mixture of small Serna-Class landing craft working in tandem with a crane barge and with the Sev er let bob rov —seen here on a satellite photo from May 13 possibly transporting a Pantsir. While the long range missiles would likely be wasted on a small Serna-class boat. The sev er let bob rov is a large ship of 95 meters. A suitable target. Having a number of missiles capable of hitting targets in and around Snake Island would severely hamper Russia’s ability to resupply. Then there’s the risk of an amphibious landing—while unlikely, it is always a prospect. Having a number of long-range missiles in and around Odesa could stop an amphibious assault before it even begins. And just for fun, we will look at the coverage of Brimstone. Brimstone 1 has a range of 20km from a fixed-wing aircraft and 12km from a helicopter. Since Ukraine is launching from the ground, I will use the lower 12km as that is likely closer to the range of the truck-mounted platforms. So, the range isn’t far, but if Ukraine deployed a number of Brimstones in and around Odesa, they would provide ample close-range protection from small landing craft such as the Serna. Small landing craft operated by the Black Sea Fllet include two Project 02510 in use with special forces and the Serna. The Raptor two can carry 20 marines. We’ve seen Brimstone operated bu Ukraine in an anti-ground role, so it’s unknown if they will depploy it in Odesa or other locations to protect the sea or not. Now, just to add—I picked Odesa as the base point for launchers, just as it seems the most likely target for Russia to hit. Given the platforms could be mobile—like the Neptune is, they could feasibly deploy it from anywhere along the coast extending its range or even from inland—decreasing its range but keeping it better protected. This was just an example if they were deployed in and around Odesa to show what coverage they could have.