S&P Officially in a Bull Market. Deflation Will Kill It.
The S&P500 has risen 20% off it's lows from last October and has now officially entered a bull market. Are we off to make new all time highs or will deflation kill the bull?
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#bullmarket #deflation #recession
48
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Shocker! Renewable Diesel is Expensive and Inefficient.
The renewable diesel bubble is bursting according to Bloomberg today as we're all shocked to learn that converting fuel into fertilizer to grow food so we can turn it back into fuel is expensive and inefficient.
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#biodiesel #renewablefuels #energ
32
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Same Store Sales Keep Getting Worse. Deflation is Coming!
The Johnson Redbook Index of US same store sales growth came in at just 0.6% for the week ending June 3. This is a continuation of a decline that's been going on for well over a year and furhter proof that deflation is coming.
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#deflation #recession #retail
27
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Ukrainian Dam Destroyed. SEC Targets Binance and Coinbase.
The Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine has been destroyed causing a flash flood that will displace over a million people with both sides accusing the other of carrying out the attack. Meanwhile the SEC has dramatically escalated it's crypto-crackdown in the last 48 hours with lawsuits targeting Binance and Coinbase accusing both exchanges of dealing in unregistered securities.
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#KakhovkaDam #Coibase #Binance
43
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Another San Francisco CMBS Default, This Time It's Hotels!
The dumpster fire that is the Commercial Real Estate Market in San Francisco continues to get worse today after Park Hotels and Resorts announced they will no longer be making payments on a $725 million CMBS loan for two hotels in the city.
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#CMBS #commercialrealestate #sanfrancisco
15
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Blowout Jobs Report!
The US economy added a staggering 339,000 jobs in May, destroying expectations for 190,000. Yet the unemployment rate rose 3.7% from 3.4% as the number of employed people in the United States went down by 310,000. Grab you coffee and let's see if we can't make sense out of these numbers.
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#jobsreport #nonfarmpayrolls #unemployment
42
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Fed Says Pause Unless Hot Jobs Report. We Just Got a Hot Jobs Report.
Late yesterday Fed mouthpiece Nick Timiraos published an article in the WSJ that said the Federal Reserve would skip a rate hike in June (aka "The Pause") unless we see a sizzling jobs report. Well we just got a sizzling private sector jobs report from ADP, suggesting that Friday's non-farm payrolls number could put a damper on The Fed's pause plans.
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#EndTheFed #ADP #jobsreport
55
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Nasdaq Goes Ballistic Over Debt Ceiling Deal
The Nasdaq is poised to open over a 100 points higher this morning as euphoria sets in over the tentative debt ceiling deal reached between Republicans and Democrats.
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#debtceiling #nasdaq
26
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Live: The Crisis After The Crisis
It looks like the incompetent clowns passing themselves off as leadership in Washington may actually be close to a deal to raise the US debt ceiling. As the market rallies in (premature?) celebration, they are neglecting what comes next: The liquidity-sucking Janet Yellen's borrowing bender. This is just the crisis before the crisis.
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#YellenSucks #Liquidity #oil
68
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Nvidia-FOMO-Mania Takes Over! Hype Beats Math.
Nvidia stock is on pace for the single largest one day gain in stock value in history after they posted "guidance for the ages" during their earnings call yesterday. The numbers associated with this story are spectacularly absurd.
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#Nvidia #FOMO #hype
18
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Argentina's De-Dollarisation is Really Just a Dollar Shortage
As the world hyperventilates over countries like Argentina "de-dollarizing," the truth is these countries are more desperate for dollars now than ever before. With a run away central bank and rampant inflation recent headlines from Argentina are more about a country desperately trying to cling to it's few remaining dollars and less about a global conspiracy to destroy the dollar as the world's reserve currency.
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#Argentina #dedollarization #inflation
53
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3
comments
Top Heavy Markets Ignore Debt Ceiling, Liquidity, & Consumer Weakness
US stocks have marched stubbornly higher recently in the face of bank turmoil, the debt ceiling circus, prospects for Janet Yellen's liquidity-destroying borrowing binge, and a steady flow of economic and earnings data that shows US consumers are on life support. What's the worse thing that could happen?
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#debtceiling #recession #inflation
34
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PacWest Banks Sells CRE Loans as Fed Jawboning Gets Underway
PacWest Bancorp stock is surging this morning on the news that the troubled bank has sold a portfolio of 74 of Commercial Real Estate loans with a face value of $2.6 billion. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve is lining up a cast of several Fed Governors who are set to make speeches this morning in yet another chapter of Federal Reserve "Jawboning" where central bankers attempt to move markets with words rather than policy.
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#bankrun #Pacwest #EndTheFed
48
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2
comments
GOP Walks Out of Debt Meeting. Yellen Calls For More Bank Mergers
The GOP delegation that was negotiating with Congressional Democrats and the White House abruptly walked out of the meeting today in what many view as pointless, scripted political theater as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the quiet part out loud when she openly called for more bank mergers.
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#debtceiling #bankrun #EndTheFed
62
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Walmart Gains as Inflation Shapes Consumer Spending Habits
Walmart's earnings report this morning shows that Target's pain is Walmart's gain as inflation has driven consumers down the luxury ladder and Walmart's emphasis on cheaper groceries is proving to be an assets as consumers are squeezed by inflation.
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#Walmart #manufacturing #inflation
17
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Consumers Are Tapped: Home Depot & Retail Sales Miss
Home Depot reported a big revenue miss and cuts it's outlook for 2023 this morning just as retail sales data from the US Census Bureau and Redbook show inflation is driving the US consumer to cut spending.
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#HomeDepot #RetailSales #recession
44
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Zombies! Outbreak of Bankruptcies as 7 Companies File Ch11
For years now, many analysts have warned of Zombie Companies that exist not because they make money, but because they have been able to access cheap credit in the debt markets. With rates significantly higher now, the Zombie Outbreak of chapter 11 filings may have just begun as 7 different companies filed for bankruptcy protections in one weekend.
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#Zombies #recession #bankruptcy
82
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Live: JayPow's Worst Nightmare
The University of Michigan released is consumer sentiment survey today and if you're Fed Chair Jerome Powell it was just about the worst news possible. Inflation expectations are showing signs of becoming "unanchored" even as consumer confidence and labor market conditions weaken.
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#inflation #deflation #recession
59
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1
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Oil Screams Global Recession as Debt Ceiling Talks Stall
OPEC+ missed it's April oil production quota by over 2.5 million barrels per day and yet the price of oil has fallen during that period signaling a severe global economic slowdown is coming. Elsewhere, Congress continues to do what it does best: nothing. Debt ceiling talks have stalled and a planned meeting between President Biden and Congressional leaders from both parties has been postponed until next week.
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#Oil #DebtCeiling #SPR
10
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Live: CPI Release
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of April will be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at 8:30 AM EST. The market is expecting a headline 5.0% year over year number and 0.4% month over month.
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#CPI #inflation #EndTheFed
55
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Banks Tighten Lending as Small Business Optimism Plummets
The Federal Reserve just released it's quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) and it showed that banks are tightening standards for lending in virtually every category in yet another indicator that the US economy is barreling towards a recession. Meanwhile the April Small Business Optimism Index fell to the lowest level in a decade according to The National Federation of Independent Business.
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#recession #SLOOS
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Monkeys Clog Bitcoin, California Defaults, Bank Shorts Crushed
Whether it's a network vulnerability, a DDOS attack on bitcoin, or just another round of 2020s Bingo, yesterday's story of 11,000 Monkey NFTs causing bitcoin network congestion and driving up transactions fees is among the most ridiculous stories I've ever read. In other news California just defaulted on a nearly $20B loan from the federal government leaving the state's business owners holding the bag. Regional bank stocks are again surging this morning as the regional banking crisis has flipped to a short squeeze in the same stocks.
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#bitcoin #california #bankrun
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Bonds Throw Fit as Jobs "Beat" and Regional Banks Bounce
Something incredible is happening to the bond market even as CNBC is swooning over the non-farm payrolls jobs number while leaving out one very important detail. Meanwhile regional banks are taking a break from a month-long beating today with most bouncing higher off their recent lows.
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#jobsreport #debtceiling #bankrun
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PacWest Bank Crushed By The Fed as Gold Makes All Time High
Mere minutes after The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates and Jerome Powell assured the world that US banks were safe and resilient, stock in regional lender PacWest Bank fell more than 50%. Seems that one didn't age quite so well. The continued mayhem in financial markets has investors looking for safety with gold briefly touching an all time high.
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Rich Dad Poor Dad by Robert Kiyosaki: https://amzn.to/3rJvA7Y
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#PacWest #EndTheFed #Gold
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Live: Fed Chair Jerome Powell's FOMC Press Conference
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference following the Fed's March FOMC meeting and the expected hike to the fed funds rate. The market is expecting a 25 basis point rate hike. The Fed is attempting to thread the needle by fighting inflation without causing widespread chaos in the financial system. Although inflation has fallen considerably this year, it remains well above the Fed's 2% target. Yet at the same time, the central bank's quantitative tightening and interest rate hikes have set off a chain of events that has resulted in the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and most recently First Republic Bank. Any action The Fed takes to fight inflation would likely make things worse for the banking crisis. Conversely any action The Fed takes to fight the bank run would likely make inflation worse. The Fed's mythical "soft landing" remains elusive.
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Recommended reading (Amazon Affiliate links):
Rich Dad Poor Dad by Robert Kiyosaki: https://amzn.to/3rJvA7Y
Atomic Habits by James Clear: https://amzn.to/423Odoy
Why We Need The Fed (blank gag book) by Joe Brown: https://amzn.to/403amBS
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#EndTheFed #FOMC #jeromepowell
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