November CPI Hits 3.1% as Shelter Inflation Remains Sticky
The Consumer Price Index for the month of November hit 3.1% year over year, roughly in line with market expectations, despite the month over month number coming in at 0.1%, slightly above expectations. Declines in energy prices were more than offset by increases in shelter cost as rents and housing prices continue to skew the index higher.
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#CPI #inflation #EndTheFed
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ADP Says US Added 103K Jobs, China Banks Outlook Downgraded
According to ADP, the US economy added just 103K jobs in the month of October, well below the 130K the market was expecting. This on top of yesterday's disappointing JOLTS report paints a clear picture of a rapidly softening US labor market. Elsewhere the credit outlook for eight large Chinese banks was downgraded by Moody's today following yesterday's downgrade of the Chinese Governments credit outlook in response to the deteriorating condition of China's financial system.
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#LaborMarket #Unemployment #ADP
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Moody's Cuts China Credit Outlook, US Factory Orders Plunge
Moody's cut its outlook on China's government credit ratings to negative from stable today due to growing concern over local government debt. Elsewhere US Factory orders in October fell by the most since April of 2020 due mostly to volatility in aircraft orders.
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#China #Recession #FactoryOrders
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Bezos Dumps AMZN Stock, NVDA Earnings Marred by Slower Growth
Jeff Bezos has started selling off part of his mammoth stake in Amazon stock, with plans to dump as much as $1B of the company shares. This is hardly a vote of confidence in the soft landing narrative. Elsewhere Nvidia reported another incredible quarter yesterday after the close, but the big earnings and revenue beat was overshadowed by talk of lost sales to China and slowing top line growth.
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#Bezos #Nvidia #OpenAI
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Reverse Repo Draining Fast! What Happens When It's Gone?
The Reverse Repo has been quietly injecting money into the bond market since the debt ceiling was suspended in June. There is now just $912B remaining, down from nearly $2.3 trillion just a few months ago. Now the question on everybody's mind, what happens when it gets to zero? Joe Brown from @HeresyFinancial joins me to talk about what happens next.
Link to Joe's video about a failed treasury auction: https://youtu.be/Nu96gTe5410?si=kDfjM_rm6v5Oxway
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Chapters:
0:00 Intro
1:20 What is Reverse Repo?
9:50 The Reverse Repo Drain
13:02 When Will it Run Out?
15:32 What Happens When it Runs Out?
20:50 Two Possible Outcomes
29:10 The Drop in the 10 Year Yield
33:25 Inflation or Deflation?
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#ReverseRepo #EndTheFed #bondmarket
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Walmart Warns of Deflation Despite "Strong Consumer" Narrative
The CEO of Walmart made an ominous warning yesterday on the company's earnings call when he warned that the supposedly "strong and resilient" consumers were exhausted from fighting inflation and are now adjusting their spending patterns and bargain hunting. This will put downward pressure on inflation and could eventually lead to deflation.
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#Walmart #Deflation #recession
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Jobless Claims Jump, Walmart's Soft Outlook Outweighs Sales
Continuing jobless claims rose again this week, continuing a trend that began in early September of people who lose their jobs having trouble finding new work. You can expect this to get worse in the coming weeks as initial jobless claims also jumped this week as the lag effect of the Fed's aggressive tightening cycle begins to appear. Elsewhere Walmart reported impressive same store sales results indicating they have gained market share as the competition stalls. But those number were overshadowed by a weak forecast that sent Walmart shares lower this morning.
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#WalmartEarnings #JoblessClaims #recession
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Moody's Cuts US Credit Outlook, Another Govt Shutdown Looms
Ratings agency Moody's has cut the outlook for US government debt citing deficits and political polarization as reasons for the cut. Moody's is the last of the major ratings agencies maintaining a Aaa rating on US government debt after S&P cut the US rating in 2011 and Fitch did the same in August of this year. Meanwhile unrealized losses from bonds continue to accumulate in the banking system with Schwab making headlines this morning.
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#Moodys #USCreditRating #Recession
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Bank Stocks Are Telling Us Things Are Not Ok!
US bank stock are signaling that something is deeply wrong in the economy. This is all despite the endless stream of soft landing rhetoric, AI mania, and repeated assurances from the imbeciles passing themselves off as our leaders. And then we learned this morning that Jamie Dimon, the CEO of the largest bank in the world, is doing something he's never done before: selling JP Morgan stock.
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#bankcrisis #jpmorgan #bondmarket
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Amazon earnings were good, but were they good enough?
Amazon reported better than expected earnings and substantial revenue growth yesterday after close, but those good results were partially tempered by disappointing growth in Amazon's cloud computing business. While these results are overall a positive for the market, they may not be enough to reverse the recent selloff in stocks as earnings season has generally been just ok, while the market was largely positioned for excellence, largely driven by AI Mania.
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#AmazonEarnings #PCE #recession
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US GDP Surges to 4.9%, UAW Makes a Deal With Ford
United States GDP growth surged in the third quarter to 4.9% year over year thanks in no small part to government, companies, and individuals spending money they don't have. Elsewhere the UAW has reached a tentative agreement with Ford to end the ongoing strike, a deal which could pave the way for an end to similar strikes at the other 2 big automakers.
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#GDP #UAWStrike #recession
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Euro FinTech's Sudden Violent Collapse, GOOG & MSFT Results Diverge
Over the last 36 hours several European FinTech firms have seen their stock values suddenly crash 50-80%. It is unclear what the direct cause of this is, but several reports are citing a general slowdown in Europe, a "changing regulatory environment", and the collapse of Nigerian Naira as reasons for the sudden crash. Elsewhere Google parent Alphabet and Microsoft each reported top and bottom line beats after the close yesterday, but their stocks are moving in opposite directions. AI remains the key word in big tech.
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#FinTech #Naira #AI
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Bitcoin Soars on ETF Rumor, Again. Xi's Surprise PBOC Visit
For the second time in 2 weeks, the price of bitcoin is surging on chatter that Blackrock has started taking initial steps toward the launch of it's much-anticipated Bitcoin spot ETF. This time however, there is more than just an un-sourced tweet from Coin Telegraph to back it up. Elsewhere Chinese President Xi Jin Ping is making an unexpected visit to the People's Bank of China (PBOC). This could be an indicator of a major monetary policy shift coming from the world's second largest economy that is being currently struggling with the collapse of it's housing market.
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#Bitcoin #BTC #bondmarket
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Bond Vigilantes are Back and Washington is Ignoring Them!
Bond Vigilantes, or traders who sell bonds due to policies considered to be inflationary, appear to be in control of the bond market driving yields in long term US government bonds sharply higher. Despite this, Washington seems intent on ignoring the problem and pressing on with out of control deficits and even the more recent push to increase spending on foreign wars. This suggests that interest rates could move higher still as this game of chicken in the bond market continues.
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#BondVigilantes #BondMarket #EndTheFed
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Powell Suggests No Hike in Nov, Oil Rises on Escalation Fear
Jerome Powell took a notably Dovish posture in his speech at the New York Economic Club yesterday where he suggested that the recent spike in interest rates makes a November Fed rate hike unlikely. Elsewhere a series of missile and drone attacks in countries throughout the middle east yesterday has the price of oil rising this morning as the market begins to price in the increasing likelihood that the war in Gaza spreads.
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#Oil #EndTheFed #interestrates
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Tesla Big Miss, Netflix Big Beat, DCG Sued For Fraud
There is mixed news this morning on the Big Tech earnings front with Tesla lower after posting a earnings and revenue miss while Netflix is surging on an earnings beat and massive subscriber growth. Elsewhere crypto giants Gemini, Genesis, and Digital Currency Group are being sued by the New York Attorney General over allegedly defrauding investors of $1.1 billion that was lost during last years crypto market crash.
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#Tesla #Netflix #DCG
41
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Deposit Flight Continues at Schwab, Rite Aid Goes Bankrupt
People are still pulling their money out of Charles Schwab. The company reported earnings this morning that barely beat lowered expectations while revenue came up short. But the big news was that the draw down of deposits at Schwab continues as another $20B was withdrawn by their customers. Elsewhere pharmacy giant Rite Aid has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy after declining sales and opioid judgements crushed company financials.
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#charlesschwab #Riteaid #bondmarket
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Bond Market Chaos & Geopolitical Risk Ends Rally in Stocks
The rally in stocks that began last Friday was fun while it lasted, but the outbreak of war in the Middle East and the chaos in the bond market has dashed hopes that this brief rally in stocks had any legs.
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#recession #oil #bondmarket
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Big Banks' Big Beat, Oil Spikes as Israel Orders Gaza Evac
JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup all reported earnings that easily beat expectations this morning as the big banks have benefited from higher Net Interest Income. Customers have fled smaller banks for the perceived safety of big banks who have been able to charge higher rates for loans without raising the payouts to depositors. Elsewhere the price of oil is spiking this morning after Israel ordered the evacuation of more than a million people from Gaza City in 24 hours before the expected military ground operation there.
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#BankEarnings #Israel #Oil
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Live: CPI Release
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of September is expected to come in at 3.6% Year over Year (headline) and 0.6 month over month. Core inflation, which doesn't include food and energy, is expected to be 4.3% year over year and 0.3% month over month.
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#inflation #CPI #EndTheFed
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PPI Higher Than Expected, Japan Interbank System "Glitch"
The Producer Price Index rose by 2.2% year over year, much higher than the 1.6% increase the market was expected. Core PPI came in at 2.7% year over year vs 2.2% expected. Meanwhile in Japan, a "glitch" in a key system used for interbank payments is disrupting transactions for a second day. The Zengin interbank financial settlement network remains unavailable to the 11 Japanese banks it services.
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#PPI #inflation #Zengin
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Worst Bond Bear Market in History, Finland Pipeline Assumed Sabotage
The selloff in US Treasuries since the peak in mid-2020 has now become the worst bond market in the 250 year history of US government debt. Despite that the stock market remains astoundingly resilient. Elsewhere, the sudden drop in pressure in a key natural gas pipeline that connects Finland with Estonia is presumed to have been sabotage according to investigators.
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#NaturalGas #BondMarket #EndTheFed
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Moody's Hints Govt Shutdown Hurts US Credit Rating, Evergrande CFO Arrested
Ratings agency Moody's issued a note yesterday that suggested a government shutdown could hurt the United States Government's credit rating. Although th e note stopped short of an outright threat of downgrade, the message was clear: Congress needs to get their act together or risk yet another downgrade, this time from the last remaining agency to give the US a stellar rating. Elsewhere the former CEO and CFO of China Evergrande have been detained following Evergrande's failure to repay an onshore bond.
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#GovtShutdown #recession #Evergrande
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Global Central Bank Divide Opens, Evergrande Just Got Worse
Central Banks across the globe are making news this morning after The ECB, BOJ, and even Philippine Central Bank officials released various statements regarding exchange rates and monetary policy in the last few hours. There is an East vs West divide taking shape among central banks globally as the Western Fed and ECB continue hawkish moves while the Eastern PBOC and BOJ maintain dovish policies. Also in the news this morning, Chinese real estate developers are once again in free fall after Evergrande scrapped plans to restructure debt due to an inability to issue new bonds. This brings the worst-case scenario of a total liquidation of Evergrande's assets closer to reality.
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#ECB #BOJ #EndTheFed
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Live: Fed Chair Jerome Powell's FOMC Press Conference
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference following the Fed's September FOMC meeting and the expected pause in hikes to the Fed Funds Rate. Investors are looking for hints from Jerome Powell about The Fed's next move at the November FOMC. The market seems convinced the central bank is done raising interest rates but Jerome Powell's prior statements suggest more hikes are still on the table. Despite lackluster jobs numbers in recent months, a spike in oil prices has driven inflation expectations higher and core non-housing services inflation remains elevated.
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#EndTheFed #federalreserve #FOMC
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