What the Largest Rally Since 1932 Means for Your Money

(3/30/22) The current, near-10% rally is largest we've seen in history--assuming we're in a bear market. While technically, we didn't see a correction, the actions of the market belies otherwise. It is only in bear markets that these types of reflexive rallies are observed. We've had very negative sentiment, very light investor positioning, many are shorting the market, and speculators have essentially evaporated--AARK funds are down almost 30% this year. The subsequent reflexive rally off these lows, thanks to a little good news, is being mostly driven by short-covering. This will have a very limited life. Markets have now recovered to two standard-deviations oversold from two standard deviations overbought of the 50_DMA. A rally back to all time market highs will not change the market still being in a giant consolidation range, and the basic market dynamics have not been altered.
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