US GDP Misses Expectations As Economy Crushing Measures Take Hold, GDPNow Tracker Falls To .19%

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The third-quarter GDP, which was the lowest since the collapse quarter of Q2 2020 when GDP crashed more than 30%, was a big drop from the 6.7% final Q2 GDP estimate, and the question now is how much further will subsequent revisions shrink the initial print and whether Q3 marks the low point for US GDP or will Q4 be even worse.
The deceleration in real Q3 GDP was led by a slowdown in consumer spending, which dropped to 1.6% from 12.0%, but was nonetheless a beat to expectations of an even worse, 0.9% print. Shortages, transportation bottlenecks, rising prices, the pressure to stay away from businesses have weighed on both goods and services spending. Meanwhile, investment was a positive contribution, thanks mainly to businesses restocking depleted inventories. Trade was a negative, but has been a negative for some time. Government was a marginal factor, as it has been in recent quarters. It comes down to consumers not being able to buy as much as they want, effectively, thanks to supply-chain issues. With the Atlanta Fed dropping their GDP Now tracker to just .19% it's likely we could be in for some rough times